Articles | Volume 13, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4183-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4183-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
10 Sep 2020
Model evaluation paper |
| 10 Sep 2020
| 10 Sep 2020
Evaluation of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model version 2.10 (UVic ESCM 2.10)
Biogeochemical Modelling Department, GEOMAR – Helmholtz Centre for
Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany
Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada
David P. Keller
Biogeochemical Modelling Department, GEOMAR – Helmholtz Centre for
Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany
Andrew H. MacDougall
Climate and Environment, St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish,
NS, Canada
Michael Eby
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
Nesha Wright
Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada
Katrin J. Meissner
Climate Change Research Centre, The University of New South Wales,
Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
The Australian Research Council
Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Sydney, New South Wales,
Australia
Andreas Oschlies
Biogeochemical Modelling Department, GEOMAR – Helmholtz Centre for
Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany
Andreas Schmittner
College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State
University, Corvallis, OR, USA
Alexander J. MacIsaac
Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada
Concordia University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
H. Damon Matthews
Concordia University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Kirsten Zickfeld
Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada
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Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
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This work describes a ready-to-use collection of particulate organic carbon stable isotope ratio data sets. It covers the 1960s–2010s and all main oceans, providing meta-information and gridded data. The best coverage exists in Atlantic, Indian and Southern Ocean surface waters during the 1990s. It indicates no major difference between methods and shows decreasing values towards high latitudes, with the lowest in the Southern Ocean, and a long-term decline in all regions but the Southern Ocean.
Claude-Michel Nzotungicimpaye, Kirsten Zickfeld, Andrew H. MacDougall, Joe R. Melton, Claire C. Treat, Michael Eby, and Lance F. W. Lesack
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6215–6240, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6215-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6215-2021, 2021
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In this paper, we describe a new wetland methane model (WETMETH) developed for use in Earth system models. WETMETH consists of simple formulations to represent methane production and oxidation in wetlands. We also present an evaluation of the model performance as embedded in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). WETMETH is capable of reproducing mean annual methane emissions consistent with present-day estimates from the regional to the global scale.
Miriam Tivig, David P. Keller, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 18, 5327–5350, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5327-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5327-2021, 2021
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Nitrogen is one of the most important elements for life in the ocean. A major source is the riverine discharge of dissolved nitrogen. While global models often omit rivers as a nutrient source, we included nitrogen from rivers in our Earth system model and found that additional nitrogen affected marine biology not only locally but also in regions far off the coast. Depending on regional conditions, primary production was enhanced or even decreased due to internal feedbacks in the nitrogen cycle.
Henrike Schmidt, Julia Getzlaff, Ulrike Löptien, and Andreas Oschlies
Ocean Sci., 17, 1303–1320, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1303-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1303-2021, 2021
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Oxygen-poor regions in the open ocean restrict marine habitats. Global climate simulations show large uncertainties regarding the prediction of these areas. We analyse the representation of the simulated oxygen minimum zones in the Arabian Sea using 10 climate models. We give an overview of the main deficiencies that cause the model–data misfit in oxygen concentrations. This detailed process analysis shall foster future model improvements regarding the oxygen minimum zone in the Arabian Sea.
Lynsay Spafford and Andrew H. MacDougall
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5863–5889, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5863-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5863-2021, 2021
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Land biogeochemical cycles influence global climate change. Their influence is examined through complex computer models that account for the interaction of the land, ocean, and atmosphere. Improved models used in the recent round of model intercomparison used inconsistent validation methods to compare simulated land biogeochemistry to datasets. For the next round of model intercomparisons we recommend a validation protocol with explicit reference datasets and informative performance metrics.
Andrew H. MacDougall
Biogeosciences, 18, 4937–4952, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4937-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4937-2021, 2021
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Permafrost soils hold about twice as much carbon as the atmosphere. As the Earth warms the organic matter in these soils will decay, releasing CO2 and CH4. It is expected that these soils will continue to release carbon to the atmosphere long after man-made emissions of greenhouse gases cease. Here we use a method employing hundreds of slightly varying model versions to estimate how much warming permafrost carbon will cause after human emissions of CO2 end.
Jaard Hauschildt, Soeren Thomsen, Vincent Echevin, Andreas Oschlies, Yonss Saranga José, Gerd Krahmann, Laura A. Bristow, and Gaute Lavik
Biogeosciences, 18, 3605–3629, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3605-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3605-2021, 2021
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In this paper we quantify the subduction of upwelled nitrate due to physical processes on the order of several kilometers in the coastal upwelling off Peru and its effect on primary production. We also compare the prepresentation of these processes in a high-resolution simulation (~2.5 km) with a more coarsely resolved simulation (~12 km). To do this, we combine high-resolution shipboard observations of physical and biogeochemical parameters with a complex biogeochemical model configuration.
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Mariana Hill Cruz, Iris Kriest, Yonss Saranga José, Rainer Kiko, Helena Hauss, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 18, 2891–2916, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2891-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2891-2021, 2021
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In this study we use a regional biogeochemical model of the eastern tropical South Pacific Ocean to implicitly simulate the effect that fluctuations in populations of small pelagic fish, such as anchovy and sardine, may have on the biogeochemistry of the northern Humboldt Current System. To do so, we vary the zooplankton mortality in the model, under the assumption that these fishes eat zooplankton. We also evaluate the model for the first time against mesozooplankton observations.
Nicholas King-Hei Yeung, Laurie Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Andréa S. Taschetto, Tilo Ziehn, and Matthew Chamberlain
Clim. Past, 17, 869–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-869-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-869-2021, 2021
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The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is characterised by strong orbital forcing compared to the pre-industrial period (PI). This study compares the mean climate state of the LIG to the PI as simulated by the ACCESS-ESM1.5, with a focus on the southern hemispheric monsoons, which are shown to be consistently weakened. This is associated with cooler terrestrial conditions in austral summer due to decreased insolation, and greater pressure and subsidence over land from Hadley cell strengthening.
Shannon A. Bengtson, Laurie C. Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Lise Missiaen, Carlye D. Peterson, Lorraine E. Lisiecki, and Fortunat Joos
Clim. Past, 17, 507–528, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-507-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-507-2021, 2021
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The last interglacial was a warm period that may provide insights into future climates. Here, we compile and analyse stable carbon isotope data from the ocean during the last interglacial and compare it to the Holocene. The data show that Atlantic Ocean circulation was similar during the last interglacial and the Holocene. We also establish a difference in the mean oceanic carbon isotopic ratio between these periods, which was most likely caused by burial and weathering carbon fluxes.
Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021
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The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
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The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Philip Goodwin, Martin Leduc, Antti-Ilari Partanen, H. Damon Matthews, and Alex Rogers
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5389–5399, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5389-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5389-2020, 2020
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Numerical climate models are used to make projections of future surface warming for different pathways of future greenhouse gas emissions, where future surface warming will vary from place to place. However, it is so expensive to run complex models using supercomputers that future projections can only be produced for a small number of possible future emissions pathways. This study presents an efficient climate model to make projections of local surface warming using a desktop computer.
Markus Pahlow, Chia-Te Chien, Lionel A. Arteaga, and Andreas Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4663–4690, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4663-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4663-2020, 2020
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The stoichiometry of marine biotic processes is important for the regulation of atmospheric CO2 and hence the global climate. We replace a simplistic, fixed-stoichiometry plankton module in an Earth system model with an optimal-regulation model with variable stoichiometry. Our model compares better to the observed carbon transfer from the surface to depth and surface nutrient distributions. This work could aid our ability to describe and project the role of marine ecosystems in the Earth system.
Chia-Te Chien, Markus Pahlow, Markus Schartau, and Andreas Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4691–4712, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4691-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4691-2020, 2020
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We demonstrate sensitivities of tracers to parameters of a new optimality-based plankton–ecosystem model (OPEM) in the UVic-ESCM. We find that changes in phytoplankton subsistence nitrogen quota strongly impact the nitrogen inventory, nitrogen fixation, and elemental stoichiometry of ordinary phytoplankton and diazotrophs. We introduce a new likelihood-based metric for model calibration, and it shows the capability of constraining globally averaged oxygen, nitrate, and DIC concentrations.
Sabine Mathesius, Julia Getzlaff, Heiner Dietze, Andreas Oschlies, and Markus Schartau
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1775–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1775-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1775-2020, 2020
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Controlled manipulation of environmental conditions within large enclosures in the ocean, pelagic mesocosms, has become a standard method to explore responses of marine plankton communities to anthropogenic change. Among the challenges of interpreting mesocosm data is the often uncertain role of vertical mixing. This study introduces a mesocosm mixing model that is able to estimate vertical diffusivities and thus provides a tool for future mesocosm data analyses that account for mixing.
Iris Kriest, Paul Kähler, Wolfgang Koeve, Karin Kvale, Volkmar Sauerland, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 17, 3057–3082, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3057-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3057-2020, 2020
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Constants of global biogeochemical ocean models are often tuned
by handto match observations of nutrients or oxygen. We investigate the effect of this tuning by optimising six constants of a global biogeochemical model, simulated in five different offline circulations. Optimal values for three constants adjust to distinct features of the circulation applied and can afterwards be swapped among the circulations, without losing too much of the model's fit to observed quantities.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
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The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Ignacio Hermoso de Mendoza, Hugo Beltrami, Andrew H. MacDougall, and Jean-Claude Mareschal
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1663–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1663-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1663-2020, 2020
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We study the impact that the thickness of the subsurface and the geothermal gradient have in land models for climate simulations. To do this, we modify the Community Land Model version 4.5. In a scenario of rising atmospheric temperatures, the temperature of an insufficiently deep subsurface rises faster than it would in the real land. For the model, this produces faster permafrost thawing and increased emissions of land carbon to the atmosphere.
Fabian Reith, Wolfgang Koeve, David P. Keller, Julia Getzlaff, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 711–727, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-711-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-711-2019, 2019
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This modeling study is the first one to look at the suitability and collateral effects of direct CO2 injection into the deep ocean as a means to bridge the gap between CO2 emissions and climate impacts of an intermediate CO2 emission scenario and a temperature target on a millennium timescale, such as the 1.5 °C climate target of the Paris Agreement.
Chris D. Jones, Thomas L. Frölicher, Charles Koven, Andrew H. MacDougall, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Joeri Rogelj, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, Nathan P. Gillett, Tatiana Ilyina, Malte Meinshausen, Nadine Mengis, Roland Séférian, Michael Eby, and Friedrich A. Burger
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4375–4385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, 2019
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Global warming is simply related to the total emission of CO2 allowing us to define a carbon budget. However, information on the Zero Emissions Commitment is a key missing link to assess remaining carbon budgets to achieve the climate targets of the Paris Agreement. It was therefore decided that a small targeted MIP activity to fill this knowledge gap would be extremely valuable. This article formalises the experimental design alongside the other CMIP6 documentation papers.
Tronje P. Kemena, Angela Landolfi, Andreas Oschlies, Klaus Wallmann, and Andrew W. Dale
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 539–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-539-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-539-2019, 2019
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Oceanic deoxygenation is driven by climate change in several areas of the global ocean. Measurements indicate that ocean volumes with very low oxygen levels expand, with consequences for marine organisms and fishery. We found climate-change-driven phosphorus (P) input in the ocean is hereby an important driver for deoxygenation on longer timescales with effects in the next millennia.
Daniela Niemeyer, Iris Kriest, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 16, 3095–3111, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3095-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3095-2019, 2019
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Recent studies suggest spatial variations of the marine particle flux length scale. Using a global biogeochemical ocean model, we investigate whether changes in particle size and size-dependent sinking can explain this variation. We address uncertainties by varying aggregate properties and circulation. Both aspects have an impact on the representation of nutrients, oxygen and oxygen minimum zones. The formation and sinking of large aggregates in productive areas lead to deeper flux penetration.
Yonss Saranga José, Lothar Stramma, Sunke Schmidtko, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-155, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-155, 2019
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
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In situ observations along the Peruvian and Chilean coasts have exhibited variability in the water column oxygen concentration. This variability, which is attributed to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), might have implication on the vertical extension of the Eastern Tropical South Pacific (ETSP) oxygen minimum zone. Here using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model, we provide new insights into how ENSO variability affects the vertical extension of the oxygen-poor waters of the ETSP.
Karin F. Kvale, Katherine E. Turner, Angela Landolfi, and Katrin J. Meissner
Biogeosciences, 16, 1019–1034, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1019-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1019-2019, 2019
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Drivers motivating the evolution of calcifying phytoplankton are poorly understood. We explore differences in global ocean chemistry with and without calcifiers during rapid climate changes. We find the presence of phytoplankton calcifiers stabilizes the volume of low oxygen regions and consequently stabilizes the concentration of nitrate, which is an important nutrient required for photosynthesis. By stabilizing nitrate concentrations, calcifiers improve their growth conditions.
Andrew Hugh MacDougall
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 597–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-597-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-597-2019, 2019
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The 1 % per year exponential change in CO2 concentration experiment is an idealized climate change scenario that has traditionally been used to facilitate comparison of different climate models and to create benchmark statistics. Here, we examine the limitations of this experiment for assessing the global carbon cycle and propose an alternative idealized experiment.
Olaf Duteil, Andreas Oschlies, and Claus W. Böning
Biogeosciences, 15, 7111–7126, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-7111-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-7111-2018, 2018
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Oxygen-depleted regions of the Pacific Ocean are currently expanding, which is threatening marine habitats. Based on numerical simulations, we show that the decrease in the intensity of the trade winds and the subsequent slowdown of the oceanic currents lead to a reduction in oxygen supply. Our study suggests that the prevailing positive conditions of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation since 1975, a major source of natural variability, may explain a significant part of the current deoxygenation.
Marine Bretagnon, Aurélien Paulmier, Véronique Garçon, Boris Dewitte, Séréna Illig, Nathalie Leblond, Laurent Coppola, Fernando Campos, Federico Velazco, Christos Panagiotopoulos, Andreas Oschlies, J. Martin Hernandez-Ayon, Helmut Maske, Oscar Vergara, Ivonne Montes, Philippe Martinez, Edgardo Carrasco, Jacques Grelet, Olivier Desprez-De-Gesincourt, Christophe Maes, and Lionel Scouarnec
Biogeosciences, 15, 5093–5111, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5093-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5093-2018, 2018
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In oxygen minimum zone, the fate of the organic matter is a key question as the low oxygen condition would preserve the OM and thus enhance the biological carbon pump while the high microbial activity would foster the remineralisation and the greenhouse gases emission. To investigate this paradigm, sediment traps were deployed off Peru. We pointed out the influence of the oxygenation as well as the organic matter quantity and quality on the carbon transfer efficiency in the oxygen minimum zone.
Kaitlin A. Naughten, Katrin J. Meissner, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Matthew H. England, Ralph Timmermann, Hartmut H. Hellmer, Tore Hattermann, and Jens B. Debernard
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1257–1292, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1257-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1257-2018, 2018
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MetROMS and FESOM are two ocean/sea-ice models which resolve Antarctic ice-shelf cavities and consider thermodynamics at the ice-shelf base. We simulate the period 1992–2016 with both models, and with two options for resolution in FESOM, and compare output from the three simulations. Ice-shelf melt rates, sub-ice-shelf circulation, continental shelf water masses, and sea-ice processes are compared and evaluated against available observations.
Andrew Lenton, Richard J. Matear, David P. Keller, Vivian Scott, and Naomi E. Vaughan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 339–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-339-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-339-2018, 2018
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Artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA) is capable of reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and surface warming while also addressing ocean acidification. We simulate the Earth system response to a fixed addition of AOA under low and high emissions. We explore the regional and global response to AOA. A key finding is that AOA is much more effective at reducing warming and ocean acidification under low emissions, despite lower carbon uptake.
Volkmar Sauerland, Ulrike Löptien, Claudine Leonhard, Andreas Oschlies, and Anand Srivastav
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1181–1198, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1181-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1181-2018, 2018
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We present a concept to prove that a parametric model is well calibrated, i.e., that changes of its free parameters cannot lead to a much better model–data misfit anymore. The intention is motivated by the fact that calibrating global biogeochemical ocean models is important for assessment and inter-model comparison but computationally expensive.
David P. Keller, Andrew Lenton, Vivian Scott, Naomi E. Vaughan, Nico Bauer, Duoying Ji, Chris D. Jones, Ben Kravitz, Helene Muri, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1133–1160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1133-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1133-2018, 2018
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There is little consensus on the impacts and efficacy of proposed carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods as a potential means of mitigating climate change. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDR-MIP) has been initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDR-MIP experiments.
Nadine Mengis, David P. Keller, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 15–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-15-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-15-2018, 2018
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The Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) method applies statistical information to systematically select, transparent, nonredundant indicators for a comprehensive assessment of the Earth system state. We show that due to changing climate forcing, such as anthropogenic climate change, the ad hoc assessment indicators might need to be reevaluated. Within an iterative process, this method would allow us to select scientifically consistent and societally relevant assessment indicators.
Karin F. Kvale and Katrin J. Meissner
Biogeosciences, 14, 4767–4780, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4767-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4767-2017, 2017
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Climate models containing ocean biogeochemistry contain a lot of poorly constrained parameters, which makes model tuning difficult. For more than 20 years modellers have generally assumed phytoplankton light attenuation parameter value choice has an insignificant affect on model ocean primary production; thus, it is often overlooked for tuning. We show that an empirical range of light attenuation parameter values can affect primary production, with increasing sensitivity under climate change.
Marc-Olivier Brault, H. Damon Matthews, and Lawrence A. Mysak
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 455–475, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-455-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-455-2017, 2017
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In this paper we describe the development and application of a new spatially explicit weathering scheme within the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). We integrated a dataset of modern-day lithology with a number of previously devised parameterizations for weathering dependency on temperature, primary productivity, and runoff. We tested the model with simulations of future carbon cycle perturbations and confirmed the importance of silicate weathering in the long term.
Karin F. Kvale, Samar Khatiwala, Heiner Dietze, Iris Kriest, and Andreas Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2425–2445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2425-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2425-2017, 2017
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Computer models of ocean biology and chemistry are becoming increasingly complex, and thus more expensive, to run. One solution is to approximate the behaviour of the ocean physics and store that information outside of the model. That
offlineinformation can then be used to calculate a steady-state solution from the model's biology and chemistry, without waiting for a traditional
onlineintegration to complete. We show this offline method reproduces online results and is 100 times faster.
James C. Orr, Raymond G. Najjar, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, John L. Bullister, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Scott C. Doney, John P. Dunne, Jean-Claude Dutay, Heather Graven, Stephen M. Griffies, Jasmin G. John, Fortunat Joos, Ingeborg Levin, Keith Lindsay, Richard J. Matear, Galen A. McKinley, Anne Mouchet, Andreas Oschlies, Anastasia Romanou, Reiner Schlitzer, Alessandro Tagliabue, Toste Tanhua, and Andrew Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2169–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, 2017
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The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) is a model comparison effort under Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Its physical component is described elsewhere in this special issue. Here we describe its ocean biogeochemical component (OMIP-BGC), detailing simulation protocols and analysis diagnostics. Simulations focus on ocean carbon, other biogeochemical tracers, air-sea exchange of CO2 and related gases, and chemical tracers used to evaluate modeled circulation.
Daniela Niemeyer, Tronje P. Kemena, Katrin J. Meissner, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 357–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-357-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-357-2017, 2017
Markus Schartau, Philip Wallhead, John Hemmings, Ulrike Löptien, Iris Kriest, Shubham Krishna, Ben A. Ward, Thomas Slawig, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 14, 1647–1701, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1647-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1647-2017, 2017
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Plankton models have become an integral part in marine ecosystem and biogeochemical research. These models differ in complexity and in their number of parameters. How values are assigned to parameters is essential. An overview of major methodologies of parameter estimation is provided. Aspects of parameter identification in the literature are diverse. Individual findings could be better synthesized if notation and expertise of the different scientific communities would be reasonably merged.
Yonss Saranga José, Heiner Dietze, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 14, 1349–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1349-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1349-2017, 2017
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This study aims to investigate the diverse subsurface nutrient patterns observed within anticyclonic eddies in the upwelling system off Peru. Two simulated anticyclonic eddies with opposing subsurface nitrate concentrations were analysed. The results show that diverse nutrient patterns within anticyclonic eddies are related to the presence of water mass from different origins at different depths, responding to variations in depth of the circulation strength at the edge of the eddy.
David J. Ullman and Andreas Schmittner
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 945–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-945-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-945-2017, 2017
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One major source of uncertainty in the prediction of climate relates to how models simulate clouds and their impact on surface temperatures. We have developed a new method for incorporating the cloud results as derived from complex climate models and applying these results to a more simplified model. The benefit with this approach is that a more simplified model is able to be run more efficiently, while still maintaining complicated cloud effects and their effect on surface temperatures.
Iris Kriest, Volkmar Sauerland, Samar Khatiwala, Anand Srivastav, and Andreas Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 127–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-127-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-127-2017, 2017
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Global biogeochemical ocean models are subject to a high level of parametric uncertainty. This may be of consequence for their skill with respect to accurately describing features of the present ocean and their sensitivity to possible environmental changes. We present the first results from a framework that combines an offline biogeochemical tracer transport model with an estimation of distribution algorithm, calibrating six biogeochemical model parameters against observed oxygen and nutrients.
Fabian Reith, David P. Keller, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 797–812, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-797-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-797-2016, 2016
Jean-Sébastien Landry, Lael Parrott, David T. Price, Navin Ramankutty, and H. Damon Matthews
Biogeosciences, 13, 5277–5295, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5277-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5277-2016, 2016
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We simulated mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks under four scenarios for the presence and growth release strength of non-attacked vegetation, and found that: (1) impacts on ecosystem carbon and radiative forcing varied greatly across the four scenarios; (2) the global climatic impact from the current outbreak in British Columbia, Canada, seemed smaller than one month of anthropogenic CO2 emissions; and (3) MPB-killed dead standing trees might hasten post-outbreak vegetation recovery.
Bei Su, Markus Pahlow, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 13, 4985–5001, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4985-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4985-2016, 2016
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Previously identified positive feedbacks within the nitrogen cycle in the eastern tropical South Pacific (ETSP) have challenged our understanding of the observed dynamics and stability of the nitrogen inventory. We present a box model analysis of the biological and biogeochemical relations in the ETSP among nitrogen deposition, benthic denitrification and phosphate regeneration. Our results suggest dominant stabilizing feedbacks tending to keep a balanced nitrogen inventory in the ETSP.
Pepijn Bakker and Andreas Schmittner
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-79, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We present an AMOC-emulator framework consisting of a box model and a statistical tuning methodology that allows us to mimic the behaviour of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in any complex global climate model. The simplicity of the AMOC-emulator allows us to run large numbers of simulations, test the importance of a range of uncertainties and thus provide probabilistic AMOC projections driven by future climate change including the partial melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Jean-Sébastien Landry and H. Damon Matthews
Biogeosciences, 13, 2137–2149, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2137-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2137-2016, 2016
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We simulated both fire pulses and stable fire regimes and found the resulting climatic impacts to be irreconcilable with equivalent amounts of CO2 emissions produced by fossil fuel combustion. Consequently, side-by-side comparisons of fire and fossil fuel CO2 emissions—implicitly implying that they have similar effects—should be avoided. Our study calls for the explicit representation of fire in climate models in order to improve our understanding of its impacts in the Earth system.
Andrew H. MacDougall and Reto Knutti
Biogeosciences, 13, 2123–2136, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2123-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2123-2016, 2016
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The soils of the permafrost region are estimated to hold 1100 to 1500 billion tonnes of carbon. As climate change progresses much of this permafrost is expected to thaw and the carbon within it decay. Here we conduct numerical experiments with a climate model to estimate with formal uncertainty bounds the release of carbon from permafrost soils. Our simulations suggest that the permafrost carbon will make a significant but not cataclysmic contribution to climate change over the next centuries.
Jean-Sébastien Landry, David T. Price, Navin Ramankutty, Lael Parrott, and H. Damon Matthews
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1243–1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1243-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1243-2016, 2016
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Insect-induced plant damage affects the land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, energy, and water. We developed a module to quantify such effects in process-based models suitable for climate studies. The module can simulate damage from broadleaf defoliators, needleleaf defoliators, and bark beetles. When coupled to an existing terrestrial vegetation model, the module produced reasonable results for vegetation dynamics and land-atmosphere exchanges, from daily to centennial timescales.
C. T. Simmons, L. A. Mysak, and H. D. Matthews
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-24, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-24, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
I. Kriest and A. Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2929–2957, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2929-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2929-2015, 2015
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We use a global model of oceanic P, N, and O2 cycles to investigate consequences of uncertainties in description of organic matter sinking, remineralization, denitrification, and N2-Fixation. After all biogeochemical and physical processes have been spun-up into a dynamically consistent steady-state, particle sinking and oxidant affinities of aerobic and anaerobic remineralization determine the extent of oxygen minimum zones, global nitrogen fluxes, and the oceanic nitrogen inventory.
W. Koeve, H. Wagner, P. Kähler, and A. Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2079–2094, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2079-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2079-2015, 2015
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The natural abundance of 14C in CO2 dissolved in seawater is often used to evaluate circulation and age in the ocean and in ocean models. We study limitations of using natural 14C to determine the time elapsed since water had contact with the atmosphere. We find that, globally, bulk 14C age is dominated by two equally important components, (1) the time component of circulation and (2) the “preformed 14C-age”. Considering preformed 14C-age is critical for an assessment of circulation in models.
L. Nickelsen, D. P. Keller, and A. Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1357–1381, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1357-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1357-2015, 2015
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In this paper we find that including the marine cycle of the phytoplankton nutrient iron in a global climate model improves the agreement between observed and simulated nutrient concentrations in the ocean and that a better description of the source of iron from the sediment to the ocean is more important than that of iron-containing dust deposition. Finally, we find that the response of the iron cycle to climate warming affects the phytoplankton growth and nutrient cycles.
B. Su, M. Pahlow, H. Wagner, and A. Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 12, 1113–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1113-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1113-2015, 2015
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A box model of the eastern tropical South Pacific oxygen minimum zone suggests that anaerobic water-column remineralization rates have to be slower than aerobic remineralization in order to explain the relatively high values of observed nitrate concentrations. Lateral oxygen supply sufficient to oxidize about one-fifth of the export production is required to prevent an anoxic deep ocean. Under these circumstances, the region can be a net source of fixed nitrogen to the surrounding ocean.
A. Schmittner and D. C. Lund
Clim. Past, 11, 135–152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-135-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-135-2015, 2015
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Model simulations of carbon isotope changes as a result of a reduction in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) agree well with sediment data from the early last deglaciation, supporting the idea that the AMOC was substantially reduced during that time period of global warming. We hypothesize, and present supporting evidence, that changes in the AMOC may have caused the coeval rise in atmospheric CO2, owing to a reduction in the efficiency of the ocean's biological pump.
N. C. Swart, J. C. Fyfe, O. A. Saenko, and M. Eby
Biogeosciences, 11, 6107–6117, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6107-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6107-2014, 2014
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Estimates of ocean carbon uptake from ocean biogeochemical models are key to our understanding of the global carbon cycle. Such estimates suggest that ocean carbon uptake is decreasing due to climate change, and particularly due to strengthening of the Southern Hemisphere winds. We show that these model-based estimates are highly uncertain due to poorly resolved physical processes (mesoscale ocean eddies) and uncertainty in the observed surface wind forcing used to drive the models.
W. Koeve, O. Duteil, A. Oschlies, P. Kähler, and J. Segschneider
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2393–2408, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2393-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2393-2014, 2014
A. E. F. Prowe, M. Pahlow, S. Dutkiewicz, and A. Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 11, 3397–3407, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3397-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3397-2014, 2014
K. F. Kvale, K. J. Meissner, D. P. Keller, M. Eby, and A. Schmittner
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-7-1709-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-7-1709-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
A. Schmittner and G. D. Egbert
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 211–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-211-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-211-2014, 2014
I. Kriest and A. Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 10, 8401–8422, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8401-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8401-2013, 2013
O. Duteil, W. Koeve, A. Oschlies, D. Bianchi, E. Galbraith, I. Kriest, and R. Matear
Biogeosciences, 10, 7723–7738, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7723-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7723-2013, 2013
C. J. Somes, A. Oschlies, and A. Schmittner
Biogeosciences, 10, 5889–5910, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5889-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5889-2013, 2013
A. Schmittner, N. Gruber, A. C. Mix, R. M. Key, A. Tagliabue, and T. K. Westberry
Biogeosciences, 10, 5793–5816, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5793-2013, 2013
M.-O. Brault, L. A. Mysak, H. D. Matthews, and C. T. Simmons
Clim. Past, 9, 1761–1771, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1761-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1761-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
V. Cocco, F. Joos, M. Steinacher, T. L. Frölicher, L. Bopp, J. Dunne, M. Gehlen, C. Heinze, J. Orr, A. Oschlies, B. Schneider, J. Segschneider, and J. Tjiputra
Biogeosciences, 10, 1849–1868, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, 2013
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
A. Landolfi, H. Dietze, W. Koeve, and A. Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 10, 1351–1363, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1351-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1351-2013, 2013
M. El Jarbi, J. Rückelt, T. Slawig, and A. Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 10, 1169–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1169-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1169-2013, 2013
L. M. Zamora, A. Oschlies, H. W. Bange, K. B. Huebert, J. D. Craig, A. Kock, and C. R. Löscher
Biogeosciences, 9, 5007–5022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-5007-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-5007-2012, 2012
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Hector V3.2.0: functionality and performance of a reduced-complexity climate model
Evaluation of CMIP6 model simulations of PM2.5 and its components over China
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Carl Svenhag, Moa K. Sporre, Tinja Olenius, Daniel Yazgi, Sara M. Blichner, Lars P. Nieradzik, and Pontus Roldin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4923–4942, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4923-2024, 2024
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Our research shows the importance of modeling new particle formation (NPF) and growth of particles in the atmosphere on a global scale, as they influence the outcomes of clouds and our climate. With the global model EC-Earth3 we show that using a new method for NPF modeling, which includes new detailed processes with NH3 and H2SO4, significantly impacts the number of particles in the air and clouds and changes the radiation balance of the same magnitude as anthropogenic greenhouse emissions.
Mengjie Han, Qing Zhao, Xili Wang, Ying-Ping Wang, Philippe Ciais, Haicheng Zhang, Daniel S. Goll, Lei Zhu, Zhe Zhao, Zhixuan Guo, Chen Wang, Wei Zhuang, Fengchang Wu, and Wei Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4871–4890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024, 2024
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The impact of biochar (BC) on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics is not represented in most land carbon models used for assessing land-based climate change mitigation. Our study develops a BC model that incorporates our current understanding of BC effects on SOC based on a soil carbon model (MIMICS). The BC model can reproduce the SOC changes after adding BC, providing a useful tool to couple dynamic land models to evaluate the effectiveness of BC application for CO2 removal from the atmosphere.
Kalyn Dorheim, Skylar Gering, Robert Gieseke, Corinne Hartin, Leeya Pressburger, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Steven J. Smith, Claudia Tebaldi, Dawn L. Woodard, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4855–4869, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024, 2024
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Hector is an easy-to-use, global climate–carbon cycle model. With its quick run time, Hector can provide climate information from a run in a fraction of a second. Hector models on a global and annual basis. Here, we present an updated version of the model, Hector V3. In this paper, we document Hector’s new features. Hector V3 is capable of reproducing historical observations, and its future temperature projections are consistent with those of more complex models.
Fangxuan Ren, Jintai Lin, Chenghao Xu, Jamiu A. Adeniran, Jingxu Wang, Randall V. Martin, Aaron van Donkelaar, Melanie S. Hammer, Larry W. Horowitz, Steven T. Turnock, Naga Oshima, Jie Zhang, Susanne Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Gary Strand, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, and Toshihiko Takemura
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4821–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4821-2024, 2024
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We evaluate the performance of 14 CMIP6 ESMs in simulating total PM2.5 and its 5 components over China during 2000–2014. PM2.5 and its components are underestimated in almost all models, except that black carbon (BC) and sulfate are overestimated in two models, respectively. The underestimation is the largest for organic carbon (OC) and the smallest for BC. Models reproduce the observed spatial pattern for OC, sulfate, nitrate and ammonium well, yet the agreement is poorer for BC.
Yi Xi, Chunjing Qiu, Yuan Zhang, Dan Zhu, Shushi Peng, Gustaf Hugelius, Jinfeng Chang, Elodie Salmon, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4727–4754, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024, 2024
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The ORCHIDEE-MICT model can simulate the carbon cycle and hydrology at a sub-grid scale but energy budgets only at a grid scale. This paper assessed the implementation of a multi-tiling energy budget approach in ORCHIDEE-MICT and found warmer surface and soil temperatures, higher soil moisture, and more soil organic carbon across the Northern Hemisphere compared with the original version.
Georgia Lazoglou, Theo Economou, Christina Anagnostopoulou, George Zittis, Anna Tzyrkalli, Pantelis Georgiades, and Jos Lelieveld
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4689–4703, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4689-2024, 2024
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This study focuses on the important issue of the drizzle bias effect in regional climate models, described by an over-prediction of the number of rainy days while underestimating associated precipitation amounts. For this purpose, two distinct methodologies are applied and rigorously evaluated. These results are encouraging for using the multivariate machine learning method random forest to increase the accuracy of climate models concerning the projection of the number of wet days.
Xu Yue, Hao Zhou, Chenguang Tian, Yimian Ma, Yihan Hu, Cheng Gong, Hui Zheng, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4621–4642, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4621-2024, 2024
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We develop the interactive Model for Air Pollution and Land Ecosystems (iMAPLE). The model considers the full coupling between carbon and water cycles, dynamic fire emissions, wetland methane emissions, biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, and trait-based ozone vegetation damage. Evaluations show that iMAPLE is a useful tool for the study of the interactions among climate, chemistry, and ecosystems.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
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The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Ross Mower, Ethan D. Gutmann, Glen E. Liston, Jessica Lundquist, and Soren Rasmussen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4135–4154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4135-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4135-2024, 2024
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Higher-resolution model simulations are better at capturing winter snowpack changes across space and time. However, increasing resolution also increases the computational requirements. This work provides an overview of changes made to a distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) to allow it to leverage high-performance computing resources. Continental simulations that were previously estimated to take 120 d can now be performed in 5 h.
Jiaxu Guo, Juepeng Zheng, Yidan Xu, Haohuan Fu, Wei Xue, Lanning Wang, Lin Gan, Ping Gao, Wubing Wan, Xianwei Wu, Zhitao Zhang, Liang Hu, Gaochao Xu, and Xilong Che
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3975–3992, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3975-2024, 2024
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To enhance the efficiency of experiments using SCAM, we train a learning-based surrogate model to facilitate large-scale sensitivity analysis and tuning of combinations of multiple parameters. Employing a hybrid method, we investigate the joint sensitivity of multi-parameter combinations across typical cases, identifying the most sensitive three-parameter combination out of 11. Subsequently, we conduct a tuning process aimed at reducing output errors in these cases.
Yung-Yao Lan, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, and Wan-Ling Tseng
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3897–3918, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3897-2024, 2024
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This study uses the CAM5–SIT coupled model to investigate the effects of SST feedback frequency on the MJO simulations with intervals at 30 min, 1, 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, and 30 d. The simulations become increasingly unrealistic as the frequency of the SST feedback decreases. Our results suggest that more spontaneous air--sea interaction (e.g., ocean response within 3 d in this study) with high vertical resolution in the ocean model is key to the realistic simulation of the MJO.
Jiwoo Lee, Peter J. Gleckler, Min-Seop Ahn, Ana Ordonez, Paul A. Ullrich, Kenneth R. Sperber, Karl E. Taylor, Yann Y. Planton, Eric Guilyardi, Paul Durack, Celine Bonfils, Mark D. Zelinka, Li-Wei Chao, Bo Dong, Charles Doutriaux, Chengzhu Zhang, Tom Vo, Jason Boutte, Michael F. Wehner, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Daehyun Kim, Zeyu Xue, Andrew T. Wittenberg, and John Krasting
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3919–3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3919-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3919-2024, 2024
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We introduce an open-source software, the PCMDI Metrics Package (PMP), developed for a comprehensive comparison of Earth system models (ESMs) with real-world observations. Using diverse metrics evaluating climatology, variability, and extremes simulated in thousands of simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), PMP aids in benchmarking model improvements across generations. PMP also enables efficient tracking of performance evolutions during ESM developments.
Haoyue Zuo, Yonggang Liu, Gaojun Li, Zhifang Xu, Liang Zhao, Zhengtang Guo, and Yongyun Hu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3949–3974, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3949-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3949-2024, 2024
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Compared to the silicate weathering fluxes measured at large river basins, the current models tend to systematically overestimate the fluxes over the tropical region, which leads to an overestimation of the global total weathering flux. The most possible cause of such bias is found to be the overestimation of tropical surface erosion, which indicates that the tropical vegetation likely slows down physical erosion significantly. We propose a way of taking this effect into account in models.
Quentin Pikeroen, Didier Paillard, and Karine Watrin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3801–3814, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3801-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3801-2024, 2024
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All accurate climate models use equations with poorly defined parameters, where knobs for the parameters are turned to fit the observations. This process is called tuning. In this article, we use another paradigm. We use a thermodynamic hypothesis, the maximum entropy production, to compute temperatures, energy fluxes, and precipitation, where tuning is impossible. For now, the 1D vertical model is used for a tropical atmosphere. The correct order of magnitude of precipitation is computed.
Jishi Zhang, Peter Bogenschutz, Qi Tang, Philip Cameron-smith, and Chengzhu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3687–3731, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3687-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3687-2024, 2024
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We developed a regionally refined climate model that allows resolved convection and performed a 20-year projection to the end of the century. The model has a resolution of 3.25 km in California, which allows us to predict climate with unprecedented accuracy, and a resolution of 100 km for the rest of the globe to achieve efficient, self-consistent simulations. The model produces superior results in reproducing climate patterns over California that typical modern climate models cannot resolve.
Xiaohui Zhong, Xing Yu, and Hao Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3667–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3667-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3667-2024, 2024
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In order to forecast localized warm-sector rainfall in the south China region, numerical weather prediction models are being run with finer grid spacing. The conventional convection parameterization (CP) performs poorly in the gray zone, necessitating the development of a scale-aware scheme. We propose a machine learning (ML) model to replace the scale-aware CP scheme. Evaluation against the original CP scheme has shown that the ML-based CP scheme can provide accurate and reliable predictions.
Taufiq Hassan, Kai Zhang, Jianfeng Li, Balwinder Singh, Shixuan Zhang, Hailong Wang, and Po-Lun Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3507–3532, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3507-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3507-2024, 2024
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Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are an essential part of global aerosol models. Significant errors can exist from the loss of emission heterogeneity. We introduced an emission treatment that significantly improved aerosol emission heterogeneity in high-resolution model simulations, with improvements in simulated aerosol surface concentrations. The emission treatment will provide a more accurate representation of aerosol emissions and their effects on climate.
Feng Zhu, Julien Emile-Geay, Gregory J. Hakim, Dominique Guillot, Deborah Khider, Robert Tardif, and Walter A. Perkins
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3409–3431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3409-2024, 2024
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Climate field reconstruction encompasses methods that estimate the evolution of climate in space and time based on natural archives. It is useful to investigate climate variations and validate climate models, but its implementation and use can be difficult for non-experts. This paper introduces a user-friendly Python package called cfr to make these methods more accessible, thanks to the computational and visualization tools that facilitate efficient and reproducible research on past climates.
Rose V. Palermo, J. Taylor Perron, Jason M. Soderblom, Samuel P. D. Birch, Alexander G. Hayes, and Andrew D. Ashton
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3433–3445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3433-2024, 2024
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Models of rocky coastal erosion help us understand the controls on coastal morphology and evolution. In this paper, we present a simplified model of coastline erosion driven by either uniform erosion where coastline erosion is constant or wave-driven erosion where coastline erosion is a function of the wave power. This model can be used to evaluate how coastline changes reflect climate, sea-level history, material properties, and the relative influence of different erosional processes.
Safae Oumami, Joaquim Arteta, Vincent Guidard, Pierre Tulet, and Paul David Hamer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3385–3408, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3385-2024, 2024
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In this paper, we coupled the SURFEX and MEGAN models. The aim of this coupling is to improve the estimation of biogenic fluxes by using the SURFEX canopy environment model. The coupled model results were validated and several sensitivity tests were performed. The coupled-model total annual isoprene flux is 442 Tg; this value is within the range of other isoprene estimates reported. The ultimate aim of this coupling is to predict the impact of climate change on biogenic emissions.
Lars Ackermann, Thomas Rackow, Kai Himstedt, Paul Gierz, Gregor Knorr, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3279–3301, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024, 2024
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We present long-term simulations with interactive icebergs in the Southern Ocean. By melting, icebergs reduce the temperature and salinity of the surrounding ocean. In our simulations, we find that this cooling effect of iceberg melting is not limited to the surface ocean but also reaches the deep ocean and propagates northward into all ocean basins. Additionally, the formation of deep-water masses in the Southern Ocean is enhanced.
Nanhong Xie, Tijian Wang, Xiaodong Xie, Xu Yue, Filippo Giorgi, Qian Zhang, Danyang Ma, Rong Song, Beiyao Xu, Shu Li, Bingliang Zhuang, Mengmeng Li, Min Xie, Natalya Andreeva Kilifarska, Georgi Gadzhev, and Reneta Dimitrova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3259–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3259-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3259-2024, 2024
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For the first time, we coupled a regional climate chemistry model, RegCM-Chem, with a dynamic vegetation model, YIBs, to create a regional climate–chemistry–ecology model, RegCM-Chem–YIBs. We applied it to simulate climatic, chemical, and ecological parameters in East Asia and fully validated it on a variety of observational data. Results show that RegCM-Chem–YIBs model is a valuable tool for studying the terrestrial carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change on a regional scale.
Bryce E. Harrop, Jian Lu, L. Ruby Leung, William K. M. Lau, Kyu-Myong Kim, Brian Medeiros, Brian J. Soden, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Bosong Zhang, and Balwinder Singh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3111–3135, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3111-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3111-2024, 2024
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Seven new experimental setups designed to interfere with cloud radiative heating have been added to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). These experiments include both those that test the mean impact of cloud radiative heating and those examining its covariance with circulations. This paper documents the code changes and steps needed to run these experiments. Results corroborate prior findings for how cloud radiative heating impacts circulations and rainfall patterns.
Mario C. Acosta, Sergi Palomas, Stella V. Paronuzzi Ticco, Gladys Utrera, Joachim Biercamp, Pierre-Antoine Bretonniere, Reinhard Budich, Miguel Castrillo, Arnaud Caubel, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Italo Epicoco, Uwe Fladrich, Sylvie Joussaume, Alok Kumar Gupta, Bryan Lawrence, Philippe Le Sager, Grenville Lister, Marie-Pierre Moine, Jean-Christophe Rioual, Sophie Valcke, Niki Zadeh, and Venkatramani Balaji
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3081–3098, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3081-2024, 2024
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We present a collection of performance metrics gathered during the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), a worldwide initiative to study climate change. We analyse the metrics that resulted from collaboration efforts among many partners and models and describe our findings to demonstrate the utility of our study for the scientific community. The research contributes to understanding climate modelling performance on the current high-performance computing (HPC) architectures.
Sabine Doktorowski, Jan Kretzschmar, Johannes Quaas, Marc Salzmann, and Odran Sourdeval
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3099–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3099-2024, 2024
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Especially over the midlatitudes, precipitation is mainly formed via the ice phase. In this study we focus on the initial snow formation process in the ICON-AES, the aggregation process. We use a stochastical approach for the aggregation parameterization and investigate the influence in the ICON-AES. Therefore, a distribution function of cloud ice is created, which is evaluated with satellite data. The new approach leads to cloud ice loss and an improvement in the process rate bias.
Katie R. Blackford, Matthew Kasoar, Chantelle Burton, Eleanor Burke, Iain Colin Prentice, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3063–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, 2024
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Peatlands are globally important stores of carbon which are being increasingly threatened by wildfires with knock-on effects on the climate system. Here we introduce a novel peat fire parameterization in the northern high latitudes to the INFERNO global fire model. Representing peat fires increases annual burnt area across the high latitudes, alongside improvements in how we capture year-to-year variation in burning and emissions.
Pengfei Shi, L. Ruby Leung, Bin Wang, Kai Zhang, Samson M. Hagos, and Shixuan Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3025–3040, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3025-2024, 2024
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Improving climate predictions have profound socio-economic impacts. This study introduces a new weakly coupled land data assimilation (WCLDA) system for a coupled climate model. We demonstrate improved simulation of soil moisture and temperature in many global regions and throughout the soil layers. Furthermore, significant improvements are also found in reproducing the time evolution of the 2012 US Midwest drought. The WCLDA system provides the groundwork for future predictability studies.
Justin Peter, Elisabeth Vogel, Wendy Sharples, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Louise Wilson, Pandora Hope, Andrew Dowdy, Greg Kociuba, Sri Srikanthan, Vi Co Duong, Jake Roussis, Vjekoslav Matic, Zaved Khan, Alison Oke, Margot Turner, Stuart Baron-Hay, Fiona Johnson, Raj Mehrotra, Ashish Sharma, Marcus Thatcher, Ali Azarvinand, Steven Thomas, Ghyslaine Boschat, Chantal Donnelly, and Robert Argent
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2755–2781, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2755-2024, 2024
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We detail the production of datasets and communication to end users of high-resolution projections of rainfall, runoff, and soil moisture for the entire Australian continent. This is important as previous projections for Australia were for small regions and used differing techniques for their projections, making comparisons difficult across Australia's varied climate zones. The data will be beneficial for research purposes and to aid adaptation to climate change.
Daniele Visioni, Alan Robock, Jim Haywood, Matthew Henry, Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Sarah J. Doherty, John Moore, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Olivier Boucher, Abu Syed, Temitope S. Egbebiyi, Roland Séférian, and Ilaria Quaglia
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2583–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, 2024
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This paper describes a new experimental protocol for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). In it, we describe the details of a new simulation of sunlight reflection using the stratospheric aerosols that climate models are supposed to run, and we explain the reasons behind each choice we made when defining the protocol.
Jose Rafael Guarin, Jonas Jägermeyr, Elizabeth A. Ainsworth, Fabio A. A. Oliveira, Senthold Asseng, Kenneth Boote, Joshua Elliott, Lisa Emberson, Ian Foster, Gerrit Hoogenboom, David Kelly, Alex C. Ruane, and Katrina Sharps
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2547–2567, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2547-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2547-2024, 2024
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The effects of ozone (O3) stress on crop photosynthesis and leaf senescence were added to maize, rice, soybean, and wheat crop models. The modified models reproduced growth and yields under different O3 levels measured in field experiments and reported in the literature. The combined interactions between O3 and additional stresses were reproduced with the new models. These updated crop models can be used to simulate impacts of O3 stress under future climate change and air pollution scenarios.
Jiachen Lu, Negin Nazarian, Melissa Anne Hart, E. Scott Krayenhoff, and Alberto Martilli
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2525–2545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2525-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2525-2024, 2024
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This study enhances urban canopy models by refining key assumptions. Simulations for various urban scenarios indicate discrepancies in turbulent transport efficiency for flow properties. We propose two modifications that involve characterizing diffusion coefficients for momentum and turbulent kinetic energy separately and introducing a physics-based
mass-fluxterm. These adjustments enhance the model's performance, offering more reliable temperature and surface flux estimates.
Justin L. Willson, Kevin A. Reed, Christiane Jablonowski, James Kent, Peter H. Lauritzen, Ramachandran Nair, Mark A. Taylor, Paul A. Ullrich, Colin M. Zarzycki, David M. Hall, Don Dazlich, Ross Heikes, Celal Konor, David Randall, Thomas Dubos, Yann Meurdesoif, Xi Chen, Lucas Harris, Christian Kühnlein, Vivian Lee, Abdessamad Qaddouri, Claude Girard, Marco Giorgetta, Daniel Reinert, Hiroaki Miura, Tomoki Ohno, and Ryuji Yoshida
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2493–2507, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2493-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2493-2024, 2024
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Accurate simulation of tropical cyclones (TCs) is essential to understanding their behavior in a changing climate. One way this is accomplished is through model intercomparison projects, where results from multiple climate models are analyzed to provide benchmark solutions for the wider climate modeling community. This study describes and analyzes the previously developed TC test case for nine climate models in an intercomparison project, providing solutions that aid in model development.
Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2387–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, 2024
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Climate scientists want to better understand modern climate change. Thus, climate model experiments are performed and compared. The results of climate model experiments differ, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. This article gives insights into the challenges and outlines opportunities for further improving the understanding of climate change. It is based on views of a group of experts in atmospheric composition–climate interactions.
Sergey Danilov, Carolin Mehlmann, Dmitry Sidorenko, and Qiang Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2287–2297, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2287-2024, 2024
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Sea ice models are a necessary component of climate models. At very high resolution they are capable of simulating linear kinematic features, such as leads, which are important for better prediction of heat exchanges between the ocean and atmosphere. Two new discretizations are described which improve the sea ice component of the Finite volumE Sea ice–Ocean Model (FESOM version 2) by allowing simulations of finer scales.
Yangke Liu, Qing Bao, Bian He, Xiaofei Wu, Jing Yang, Yimin Liu, Guoxiong Wu, Tao Zhu, Siyuan Zhou, Yao Tang, Ankang Qu, Yalan Fan, Anling Liu, Dandan Chen, Zhaoming Luo, Xing Hu, and Tongwen Wu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1, 2024
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This article gives an overview introduction of the IAP-CAS S2S (sub-seasonal to seasonal) ensemble forecasting system and MJO forecast evaluation of the system. Compared to other S2S models, the IAP-CAS model has its advantages but also exhibits some biases, including underdispersive ensemble, overestimated amplitude and faster propagation speed when forecasting MJO. We also provide the explanation towards these biases and prospects for further improvement of this system in the future.
Tian Gan, Gregory E. Tucker, Eric W. H. Hutton, Mark D. Piper, Irina Overeem, Albert J. Kettner, Benjamin Campforts, Julia M. Moriarty, Brianna Undzis, Ethan Pierce, and Lynn McCready
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2165–2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2165-2024, 2024
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This study presents the design, implementation, and application of the CSDMS Data Components. The case studies demonstrate that the Data Components provide a consistent way to access heterogeneous datasets from multiple sources, and to seamlessly integrate them with various models for Earth surface process modeling. The Data Components support the creation of open data–model integration workflows to improve the research transparency and reproducibility.
Jérémy Bernard, Erwan Bocher, Matthieu Gousseff, François Leconte, and Elisabeth Le Saux Wiederhold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2077–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2077-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2077-2024, 2024
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Geographical features may have a considerable effect on local climate. The local climate zone (LCZ) system proposed by Stewart and Oke (2012) is seen as a standard approach for classifying any zone according to a set of geographic indicators. While many methods already exist to map the LCZ, only a few tools are openly and freely available. We present the algorithm implemented in GeoClimate software to identify the LCZ of any place in the world using OpenStreetMap data.
Thomas Extier, Thibaut Caley, and Didier M. Roche
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2117–2139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2117-2024, 2024
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Stable water isotopes are used to infer changes in the hydrological cycle for different time periods in climatic archive and climate models. We present the implementation of the δ2H and δ17O water isotopes in the coupled climate model iLOVECLIM and calculate the d- and 17O-excess. Results of a simulation under preindustrial conditions show that the model correctly reproduces the water isotope distribution in the atmosphere and ocean in comparison to data and other global circulation models.
Joseph P. Hollowed, Christiane Jablonowski, Hunter Y. Brown, Benjamin R. Hillman, Diana L. Bull, and Joseph L. Hart
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-335, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-335, 2024
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Large volcanic eruptions deposit material into the upper-atmosphere, which is capable of altering temperature and wind patterns of the Earth's atmosphere for years following. This research describes a new method of simulating these effects in an idealized, efficient atmospheric model. A volcanic eruption of sulfur dioxide is described with a simplified set of physical rules, which eventually cools the planetary surface. This model has been designed as a testbed for climate attribution studies.
Kirsten L. Findell, Zun Yin, Eunkyo Seo, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Nathan P. Arnold, Nathaniel Chaney, Megan D. Fowler, Meng Huang, David M. Lawrence, Po-Lun Ma, and Joseph A. Santanello Jr.
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1869–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1869-2024, 2024
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We outline a request for sub-daily data to accurately capture the process-level connections between land states, surface fluxes, and the boundary layer response. This high-frequency model output will allow for more direct comparison with observational field campaigns on process-relevant timescales, enable demonstration of inter-model spread in land–atmosphere coupling processes, and aid in targeted identification of sources of deficiencies and opportunities for improvement of the models.
Marlene Klockmann, Udo von Toussaint, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1765–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1765-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1765-2024, 2024
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Reconstructions of climate variability before the observational period rely on climate proxies and sophisticated statistical models to link the proxy information and climate variability. Existing models tend to underestimate the true magnitude of variability, especially if the proxies contain non-climatic noise. We present and test a promising new framework for climate-index reconstructions, based on Gaussian processes, which reconstructs robust variability estimates from noisy and sparse data.
Aaron A. Naidoo-Bagwell, Fanny M. Monteiro, Katharine R. Hendry, Scott Burgan, Jamie D. Wilson, Ben A. Ward, Andy Ridgwell, and Daniel J. Conley
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1729–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1729-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1729-2024, 2024
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As an extension to the EcoGEnIE 1.0 Earth system model that features a diverse plankton community, EcoGEnIE 1.1 includes siliceous plankton diatoms and also considers their impact on biogeochemical cycles. With updates to existing nutrient cycles and the introduction of the silicon cycle, we see improved model performance relative to observational data. Through a more functionally diverse plankton community, the new model enables more comprehensive future study of ocean ecology.
Martin Butzin, Ying Ye, Christoph Völker, Özgür Gürses, Judith Hauck, and Peter Köhler
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1709–1727, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1709-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1709-2024, 2024
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In this paper we describe the implementation of the carbon isotopes 13C and 14C into the marine biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1-REcoM3 and present results of long-term test simulations. Our model results are largely consistent with marine carbon isotope reconstructions for the pre-anthropogenic period, but also exhibit some discrepancies.
Sven Karsten, Hagen Radtke, Matthias Gröger, Ha T. M. Ho-Hagemann, Hossein Mashayekh, Thomas Neumann, and H. E. Markus Meier
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1689–1708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1689-2024, 2024
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This paper describes the development of a regional Earth System Model for the Baltic Sea region. In contrast to conventional coupling approaches, the presented model includes a flux calculator operating on a common exchange grid. This approach automatically ensures a locally consistent treatment of fluxes and simplifies the exchange of model components. The presented model can be used for various scientific questions, such as studies of natural variability and ocean–atmosphere interactions.
Skyler Graap and Colin M. Zarzycki
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1627–1650, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1627-2024, 2024
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A key target for improving climate models is how low, bright clouds are predicted over tropical oceans, since they have important consequences for the Earth's energy budget. A climate model has been updated to improve the physical realism of the treatment of how momentum is moved up and down in the atmosphere. By comparing this updated model to real-world observations from balloon launches, it can be shown to more accurately depict atmospheric structure in trade-wind areas close to the Equator.
Marika M. Holland, Cecile Hannay, John Fasullo, Alexandra Jahn, Jennifer E. Kay, Michael Mills, Isla R. Simpson, William Wieder, Peter Lawrence, Erik Kluzek, and David Bailey
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1585–1602, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024, 2024
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Climate evolves in response to changing forcings, as prescribed in simulations. Models and forcings are updated over time to reflect new understanding. This makes it difficult to attribute simulation differences to either model or forcing changes. Here we present new simulations which enable the separation of model structure and forcing influence between two widely used simulation sets. Results indicate a strong influence of aerosol emission uncertainty on historical climate.
Rongyun Tang, Mingzhou Jin, Jiafu Mao, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Anping Chen, and Yulong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1525–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1525-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1525-2024, 2024
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Carbon-rich boreal peatlands are at risk of burning. The reproducibility and predictability of rare peatland fire events are investigated by constructing a two-step error-correcting machine learning framework to tackle such complex systems. Fire occurrence and impacts are highly predictable with our approach. Factor-controlling simulations revealed that temperature, moisture, and freeze–thaw cycles control boreal peatland fires, indicating thermal impacts on causing peat fires.
Allison B. Collow, Peter R. Colarco, Arlindo M. da Silva, Virginie Buchard, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Sampa Das, Ravi Govindaraju, Dongchul Kim, and Valentina Aquila
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1443–1468, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1443-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1443-2024, 2024
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The GOCART aerosol module within the Goddard Earth Observing System recently underwent a major refactoring and update to the representation of physical processes. Code changes that were included in GOCART Second Generation (GOCART-2G) are documented, and we establish a benchmark simulation that is to be used for future development of the system. The 4-year benchmark simulation was evaluated using in situ and spaceborne measurements to develop a baseline and prioritize future development.
Oksana Guba, Mark A. Taylor, Peter A. Bosler, Christopher Eldred, and Peter H. Lauritzen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1429–1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1429-2024, 2024
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We want to reduce errors in the moist energy budget in numerical atmospheric models. We study a few common assumptions and mechanisms that are used for the moist physics. Some mechanisms are more consistent with the underlying equations. Separately, we study how assumptions about models' thermodynamics affect the modeled energy of precipitation. We also explain how to conserve energy in the moist physics for nonhydrostatic models.
Konstantin Aiteew, Jarno Rouhiainen, Claas Nendel, and René Dechow
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1349–1385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1349-2024, 2024
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This study evaluated the biogeochemical model MONICA and its performance in simulating soil organic carbon changes. MONICA can reproduce plant growth, carbon and nitrogen dynamics, soil water and temperature. The model results were compared with five established carbon turnover models. With the exception of certain sites, adequate reproduction of soil organic carbon stock change rates was achieved. The MONICA model was capable of performing similar to or even better than the other models.
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Short summary
In this paper, we evaluate the newest version of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM 2.10). Combining recent model developments as a joint effort, this version is to be used in the next phase of model intercomparison and climate change studies. The UVic ESCM 2.10 is capable of reproducing changes in historical temperature and carbon fluxes well. Additionally, the model is able to reproduce the three-dimensional distribution of many ocean tracers.
In this paper, we evaluate the newest version of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate...
