Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2095–2107, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2095-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2095–2107, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2095-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper 28 Apr 2020
Development and technical paper | 28 Apr 2020
Bayesian spatio-temporal inference of trace gas emissions using an integrated nested Laplacian approximation and Gaussian Markov random fields
Luke M. Western et al.
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Jens Mühle, Lambert J. M. Kuijpers, Kieran M. Stanley, Matthew Rigby, Luke M. Western, Jooil Kim, Sunyoung Park, Christina M. Harth, Paul B. Krummel, Paul J. Fraser, Simon O’Doherty, Peter K. Salameh, Roland Schmidt, Dickon Young, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray H. J. Wang, and Ray F. Weiss
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-857, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-857, 2021
Preprint under review for ACP
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Global emissions of the strong greenhouse gas perfluorocyclobutane (c-C4F8) into the atmosphere have been increasing sharply since the early 2000s. These c-C4F8 emissions are highly correlated with the amount of hydrochlorofluorocarbon-22 produced to synthesize polytetrafluoroethylene (Teflon) and related fluorochemicals, using a process in which c-C4F8 is a by-product, that is vented to the atmosphere. Avoiding these unnecessary c-C4F8 emissions could reduce the climate impact of this industry.
Alice E. Ramsden, Anita L. Ganesan, Luke M. Western, Matthew Rigby, Alistair J. Manning, Amy Foulds, James L. France, Patrick Barker, Peter Levy, Daniel Say, Adam Wisher, Tim Arnold, Chris Rennick, Kieran M. Stanley, Dickon Young, and Simon O'Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-734, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-734, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for ACP
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Quantifying methane emissions from different sources is a key focus of current research. We present a method for estimating sectoral methane emissions that uses ethane as a tracer for fossil fuel methane. By incorporating variable ethane:methane emission ratios into this model, we produce emissions estimates with improved uncertainty characterisation. This method will be particularly useful for studying methane emissions in areas with complex distributions of sources.
Daniel Say, Alistair J. Manning, Luke M. Western, Dickon Young, Adam Wisher, Matthew Rigby, Stefan Reimann, Martin K. Vollmer, Michela Maione, Jgor Arduini, Paul B. Krummel, Jens Mühle, Christina M. Harth, Brendan Evans, Ray F. Weiss, Ronald G. Prinn, and Simon O'Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2149–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2149-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2149-2021, 2021
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Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) are potent greenhouse gases with exceedingly long lifetimes. We used atmospheric measurements from a global monitoring network to track the accumulation of these gases in the atmosphere. In the case of the two most abundant PFCs, recent measurements indicate that global emissions are increasing. In Europe, we used a model to estimate regional PFC emissions. Our results show that there was no significant decline in northwest European PFC emissions between 2010 and 2019.
Angharad C. Stell, Luke M. Western, Tomás Sherwen, and Matthew Rigby
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1717–1736, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1717-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1717-2021, 2021
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Although it is the second-most important greenhouse gas, our understanding of the atmospheric-methane budget is limited. The uncertainty highlights the need for new tools to investigate sources and sinks. Here, we use a Gaussian process emulator to efficiently approximate the response of atmospheric-methane observations to changes in the most uncertain emission or loss processes. With this new method, we rigorously quantify the sensitivity of atmospheric observations to budget uncertainties.
Jens Mühle, Cathy M. Trudinger, Luke M. Western, Matthew Rigby, Martin K. Vollmer, Sunyoung Park, Alistair J. Manning, Daniel Say, Anita Ganesan, L. Paul Steele, Diane J. Ivy, Tim Arnold, Shanlan Li, Andreas Stohl, Christina M. Harth, Peter K. Salameh, Archie McCulloch, Simon O'Doherty, Mi-Kyung Park, Chun Ok Jo, Dickon Young, Kieran M. Stanley, Paul B. Krummel, Blagoj Mitrevski, Ove Hermansen, Chris Lunder, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Bo Yao, Jooil Kim, Benjamin Hmiel, Christo Buizert, Vasilii V. Petrenko, Jgor Arduini, Michela Maione, David M. Etheridge, Eleni Michalopoulou, Mike Czerniak, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Stefan Reimann, Peter G. Simmonds, Paul J. Fraser, Ronald G. Prinn, and Ray F. Weiss
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10335–10359, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10335-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10335-2019, 2019
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We discuss atmospheric concentrations and emissions of the strong greenhouse gas perfluorocyclobutane. A large fraction of recent emissions stem from China, India, and Russia, probably as a by-product from the production of fluoropolymers and fluorochemicals. Most historic emissions likely stem from developed countries. Total emissions are higher than what is being reported. Clearly, more measurements and better reporting are needed to understand emissions of this and other greenhouse gases.
Luke M. Western, Peter N. Francis, I. Matthew Watson, and Shona Mackie
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2016-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2016-92, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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This work aims to infer the size distribution of airborne volcanic ash using satellite measurements. The size distribution of volcanic ash is typically described using two parameters, of which one is normally assumed and one can be measured using satellites. This work shows that it is possible, using a satellite with high spectral resolution, to retrieve both parameters. This work has been done to reduce uncertainty in mass calculations for airspace management during volcanic unrest.
Guus J. M. Velders, John S. Daniel, Stephen A. Montzka, Isaac Vimont, Matthew Rigby, Paul B. Krummel, Jens Muhle, Simon O'Doherty, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, and Dickon Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-1070, 2022
Preprint under review for ACP
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The emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) have increased significantly in the past decades as a result of the phaseout of ozone depleting substances. Observations indicate that HFCs are used much less in certain refrigeration applications than previously projected. Current policies are projected to reduce emissions and the surface temperature contribution of HFCs from 0.28–0.44 °C to 0.14–0.31 °C in 2100. The Kigali Amendment is projected to reduce the contributions further to 0.04 °C in 2100.
Andrew Zammit-Mangion, Michael Bertolacci, Jenny Fisher, Ann Stavert, Matthew Rigby, Yi Cao, and Noel Cressie
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 45–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-45-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-45-2022, 2022
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We present a framework for estimating the sources and sinks (flux) of carbon dioxide from satellite data. The framework is statistical and yields measures of uncertainty alongside all estimates of flux and other parameters in the underlying model. It also allows us to generate other insights, such as the size of errors and biases in the data. The primary aim of this research was to develop a fully statistical flux inversion framework for use by atmospheric scientists.
Jan C. Minx, William F. Lamb, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Monica Crippa, Niklas Döbbeling, Piers M. Forster, Diego Guizzardi, Jos Olivier, Glen P. Peters, Julia Pongratz, Andy Reisinger, Matthew Rigby, Marielle Saunois, Steven J. Smith, Efisio Solazzo, and Hanqin Tian
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5213–5252, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021, 2021
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We provide a synthetic dataset on anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for 1970–2018 with a fast-track extension to 2019. We show that GHG emissions continued to rise across all gases and sectors. Annual average GHG emissions growth slowed, but absolute decadal increases have never been higher in human history. We identify a number of data gaps and data quality issues in global inventories and highlight their importance for monitoring progress towards international climate goals.
Mark F. Lunt, Alistair J. Manning, Grant Allen, Tim Arnold, Stéphane J.-B. Bauguitte, Hartmut Boesch, Anita L. Ganesan, Aoife Grant, Carole Helfter, Eiko Nemitz, Simon J. O'Doherty, Paul I. Palmer, Joseph R. Pitt, Chris Rennick, Daniel Say, Kieran M. Stanley, Ann R. Stavert, Dickon Young, and Matt Rigby
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16257–16276, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16257-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16257-2021, 2021
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We present an evaluation of the UK's methane emissions between 2013 and 2020 using a network of tall tower measurement sites. We find emissions that are consistent in both magnitude and trend with the UK's reported emissions, with a declining trend driven by a decrease in emissions from England. The impact of various components of the modelling set-up on these findings are explored through a number of sensitivity studies.
Jens Mühle, Lambert J. M. Kuijpers, Kieran M. Stanley, Matthew Rigby, Luke M. Western, Jooil Kim, Sunyoung Park, Christina M. Harth, Paul B. Krummel, Paul J. Fraser, Simon O’Doherty, Peter K. Salameh, Roland Schmidt, Dickon Young, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray H. J. Wang, and Ray F. Weiss
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-857, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-857, 2021
Preprint under review for ACP
Short summary
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Global emissions of the strong greenhouse gas perfluorocyclobutane (c-C4F8) into the atmosphere have been increasing sharply since the early 2000s. These c-C4F8 emissions are highly correlated with the amount of hydrochlorofluorocarbon-22 produced to synthesize polytetrafluoroethylene (Teflon) and related fluorochemicals, using a process in which c-C4F8 is a by-product, that is vented to the atmosphere. Avoiding these unnecessary c-C4F8 emissions could reduce the climate impact of this industry.
Eric Saboya, Giulia Zazzeri, Heather Graven, Alistair J. Manning, and Sylvia Englund Michel
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-606, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-606, 2021
Preprint under review for ACP
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Is London under-reporting its climate change inducing fossil-fuel methane emissions? Methane emissions arise from a range of different sources that are often collocated in megacities like London. Measurements of the atmospheric concentration and isotopic composition of methane in central London between 2018–2020 suggest methane emissions from natural gas pipe leaks in London are too low in emission inventory estimates.
Haklim Choi, Mi-Kyung Park, Paul J. Fraser, Hyeri Park, Sohyeon Geum, Jens Mühle, Jooil Kim, Ian Porter, Peter K. Salameh, Christina M. Harth, Bronwyn L. Dunse, Paul B. Krummel, Ray F. Weiss, Simon O'Doherty, Dickon Young, and Sunyoung Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-699, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-699, 2021
Preprint under review for ACP
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We observed 12-years continuous CH3Br pollution signals at Gosan and estimated anthropogenic CH3Br emissions in eastern China. The analysis revealed a significant discrepancy between top-down estimates and the bottom-up emissions from the fumigation usage reported to the United Nations Environment Programme, and likely from unreported or inaccurately reported fumigation usage. This result provides information to monitor international compliance with the Montreal Protocol.
Alice E. Ramsden, Anita L. Ganesan, Luke M. Western, Matthew Rigby, Alistair J. Manning, Amy Foulds, James L. France, Patrick Barker, Peter Levy, Daniel Say, Adam Wisher, Tim Arnold, Chris Rennick, Kieran M. Stanley, Dickon Young, and Simon O'Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-734, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-734, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for ACP
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Quantifying methane emissions from different sources is a key focus of current research. We present a method for estimating sectoral methane emissions that uses ethane as a tracer for fossil fuel methane. By incorporating variable ethane:methane emission ratios into this model, we produce emissions estimates with improved uncertainty characterisation. This method will be particularly useful for studying methane emissions in areas with complex distributions of sources.
Alistair J. Manning, Alison L. Redington, Daniel Say, Simon O'Doherty, Dickon Young, Peter G. Simmonds, Martin K. Vollmer, Jens Mühle, Jgor Arduini, Gerard Spain, Adam Wisher, Michela Maione, Tanja J. Schuck, Kieran Stanley, Stefan Reimann, Andreas Engel, Paul B. Krummel, Paul J. Fraser, Christina M. Harth, Peter K. Salameh, Ray F. Weiss, Ray Gluckman, Peter N. Brown, John D. Watterson, and Tim Arnold
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12739–12755, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12739-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12739-2021, 2021
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This paper estimates UK emissions of important greenhouse gases (hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)) using high-quality atmospheric observations and atmospheric modelling. We compare these estimates with those submitted by the UK to the United Nations. We conclude that global concentrations of these gases are still increasing. Our estimates for the UK are 73 % of those reported and that the UK emissions are now falling, demonstrating an impact of UK government policy.
Ruth E. Hill-Pearce, Aimee Hillier, Eric Mussell Webber, Kanokrat Charoenpornpukdee, Simon O'Doherty, Joachim Mohn, Christoph Zellweger, David R. Worton, and Paul J. Brewer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 5447–5458, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5447-2021, 2021
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There is currently a need for gas reference materials with well-characterised delta values for monitoring N2O amount fractions. We present work towards the preparation of gas reference materials for calibration of in-field monitoring equipment, which target the WMO-GAW data quality objectives for comparability of amount fraction and demonstrate the stability of δ15Nα, δ15Nβ and δ18O values with pressure and effects of cylinder passivation.
Dominique Rust, Ioannis Katharopoulos, Martin K. Vollmer, Stephan Henne, Simon O'Doherty, Daniel Say, Lukas Emmenegger, Renato Zenobi, and Stefan Reimann
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-633, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-633, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for ACP
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Man-made halocarbons contribute to ozone-layer depletion and to global warming. We measured the atmospheric concentrations of halocarbons at the Beromünster-tower, modeled the Swiss emissions, and compared the results to the internationally reported Swiss emissions inventory. For most of the halocarbons we found good agreement, whereas one refrigerant might be overestimated in the inventory. In addition, we present first emission estimates of the newest type of halocarbons.
Fides Lefrancois, Markus Jesswein, Markus Thoma, Andreas Engel, Kieran Stanley, and Tanja Schuck
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 4669–4687, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4669-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4669-2021, 2021
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Synthetic halocarbons can contribute to stratospheric ozone depletion or to climate change. In many applications they have been replaced over the last years. The presented non-target analysis shows an application approach to quantify those replacements retrospectively, using recorded data of air measurements with gas chromatography coupled to time-of-flight mass spectrometry. We focus on the retrospective analysis of the fourth-generation halocarbons, detected at Taunus Observatory in Germany.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Philippe Peylin, Matthew J. McGrath, Efisio Solazzo, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Peter Bergamaschi, Dominik Brunner, Glen P. Peters, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Aki Tsuruta, Wilfried Winiwarter, Prabir K. Patra, Matthias Kuhnert, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Monica Crippa, Marielle Saunois, Lucia Perugini, Tiina Markkanen, Tuula Aalto, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Chris Wilson, Giulia Conchedda, Dirk Günther, Adrian Leip, Pete Smith, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Antti Leppänen, Alistair J. Manning, Joe McNorton, Patrick Brockmann, and Albertus Johannes Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2307–2362, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, 2021
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This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up and top-down CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK. The data integrate recent emission inventories with process-based model data and regional/global inversions for the European domain, aiming at reconciling them with official country-level UNFCCC national GHG inventories in support to policy and to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Daniel Say, Alistair J. Manning, Luke M. Western, Dickon Young, Adam Wisher, Matthew Rigby, Stefan Reimann, Martin K. Vollmer, Michela Maione, Jgor Arduini, Paul B. Krummel, Jens Mühle, Christina M. Harth, Brendan Evans, Ray F. Weiss, Ronald G. Prinn, and Simon O'Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2149–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2149-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2149-2021, 2021
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Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) are potent greenhouse gases with exceedingly long lifetimes. We used atmospheric measurements from a global monitoring network to track the accumulation of these gases in the atmosphere. In the case of the two most abundant PFCs, recent measurements indicate that global emissions are increasing. In Europe, we used a model to estimate regional PFC emissions. Our results show that there was no significant decline in northwest European PFC emissions between 2010 and 2019.
Angharad C. Stell, Luke M. Western, Tomás Sherwen, and Matthew Rigby
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1717–1736, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1717-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1717-2021, 2021
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Although it is the second-most important greenhouse gas, our understanding of the atmospheric-methane budget is limited. The uncertainty highlights the need for new tools to investigate sources and sinks. Here, we use a Gaussian process emulator to efficiently approximate the response of atmospheric-methane observations to changes in the most uncertain emission or loss processes. With this new method, we rigorously quantify the sensitivity of atmospheric observations to budget uncertainties.
Rachel L. Tunnicliffe, Anita L. Ganesan, Robert J. Parker, Hartmut Boesch, Nicola Gedney, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, Jošt V. Lavrič, David Walter, Matthew Rigby, Stephan Henne, Dickon Young, and Simon O'Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13041–13067, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13041-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13041-2020, 2020
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This study quantifies Brazil’s emissions of a potent atmospheric greenhouse gas, methane. This is in the field of atmospheric modelling and uses remotely sensed data and surface measurements of methane concentrations as well as an atmospheric transport model to interpret the data. Because of Brazil’s large emissions from wetlands, agriculture and biomass burning, these emissions affect global methane concentrations and thus are of global significance.
Guillaume Monteil, Grégoire Broquet, Marko Scholze, Matthew Lang, Ute Karstens, Christoph Gerbig, Frank-Thomas Koch, Naomi E. Smith, Rona L. Thompson, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Emily White, Antoon Meesters, Philippe Ciais, Anita L. Ganesan, Alistair Manning, Michael Mischurow, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Jerôme Tarniewicz, Matt Rigby, Christian Rödenbeck, Alex Vermeulen, and Evie M. Walton
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12063–12091, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12063-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12063-2020, 2020
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The paper presents the first results from the EUROCOM project, a regional atmospheric inversion intercomparison exercise involving six European research groups. It aims to produce an estimate of the net carbon flux between the European terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere for the period 2006–2015, based on constraints provided by observed CO2 concentrations and using inverse modelling techniques. The use of six different models enables us to investigate the robustness of the results.
Marielle Saunois, Ann R. Stavert, Ben Poulter, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Peter A. Raymond, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Sander Houweling, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Ciais, Vivek K. Arora, David Bastviken, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Kimberly M. Carlson, Mark Carrol, Simona Castaldi, Naveen Chandra, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick M. Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles L. Curry, Giuseppe Etiope, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Michaela I. Hegglin, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Gustaf Hugelius, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Katherine M. Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Paul B. Krummel, Ray L. Langenfelds, Goulven G. Laruelle, Licheng Liu, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe McNorton, Paul A. Miller, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Vaishali Naik, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Simon O'Doherty, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, Pierre Regnier, William J. Riley, Judith A. Rosentreter, Arjo Segers, Isobel J. Simpson, Hao Shi, Steven J. Smith, L. Paul Steele, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Francesco N. Tubiello, Aki Tsuruta, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Thomas S. Weber, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray F. Weiss, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Yi Yin, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Zhen Zhang, Yuanhong Zhao, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1561–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, 2020
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Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. We have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. This is the second version of the review dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down and bottom-up estimates.
Moya L. Macdonald, Jemma L. Wadham, Dickon Young, Chris R. Lunder, Ove Hermansen, Guillaume Lamarche-Gagnon, and Simon O'Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7243–7258, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7243-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7243-2020, 2020
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Climate change has caused glaciers in the Arctic to shrink, uncovering new soils. We used field measurements to study the exchange of a group of gases involved in ozone destruction, called halocarbons, between these new soils and the atmosphere. We found that mats of cyanobacteria, early colonisers of soils, are linked to a larger-than-expected exchange of halocarbons with the atmosphere. We also found that gases which are commonly thought to be marine in origin were released from these soils.
Peter G. Simmonds, Matthew Rigby, Alistair J. Manning, Sunyoung Park, Kieran M. Stanley, Archie McCulloch, Stephan Henne, Francesco Graziosi, Michela Maione, Jgor Arduini, Stefan Reimann, Martin K. Vollmer, Jens Mühle, Simon O'Doherty, Dickon Young, Paul B. Krummel, Paul J. Fraser, Ray F. Weiss, Peter K. Salameh, Christina M. Harth, Mi-Kyung Park, Hyeri Park, Tim Arnold, Chris Rennick, L. Paul Steele, Blagoj Mitrevski, Ray H. J. Wang, and Ronald G. Prinn
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7271–7290, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7271-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7271-2020, 2020
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Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) is a potent greenhouse gas which is regulated under the Kyoto Protocol. From a 40-year record of measurements, collected at five global monitoring sites and archived air samples, we show that its concentration in the atmosphere has steadily increased. Using modelling techniques, we estimate that global emissions have increased by about 24 % over the past decade. We find that this increase is driven by the demand for SF6-insulated switchgear in developing countries.
Elise S. Droste, Karina E. Adcock, Matthew J. Ashfold, Charles Chou, Zoë Fleming, Paul J. Fraser, Lauren J. Gooch, Andrew J. Hind, Ray L. Langenfelds, Emma Leedham Elvidge, Norfazrin Mohd Hanif, Simon O'Doherty, David E. Oram, Chang-Feng Ou-Yang, Marios Panagi, Claire E. Reeves, William T. Sturges, and Johannes C. Laube
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4787–4807, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4787-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4787-2020, 2020
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We update the tropospheric trends and emissions of six perfluorocarbon (PFC) gases, including separate isomers. Trends for these strong greenhouse gases are still increasing, but at slower rates than previously. The lack of natural sinks results in the global accumulation of 833 million metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent for these six PFCs by 2017. Modelling results indicate potential source regions and types in East Asia, but we find that many emissions are unaccounted for in emission reports.
Angelina Wenger, Katherine Pugsley, Simon O'Doherty, Matt Rigby, Alistair J. Manning, Mark F. Lunt, and Emily D. White
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14057–14070, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14057-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14057-2019, 2019
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We present 14CO2 observations at a background site in Ireland and a tall tower site in the UK. These data have been used to calculate the contribution of fossil fuel sources to atmospheric CO2 mole fractions from the UK and Ireland. 14CO2 emissions from nuclear industry sites in the UK cause a higher uncertainty in the results compared to observations in other locations. The observed ffCO2 at the site was not significantly different from simulated values based on the bottom-up inventory.
Maxime Prignon, Simon Chabrillat, Daniele Minganti, Simon O'Doherty, Christian Servais, Gabriele Stiller, Geoffrey C. Toon, Martin K. Vollmer, and Emmanuel Mahieu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12309–12324, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12309-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12309-2019, 2019
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Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are the first, but temporary, substitution products for the strong ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). In this work, we present and validate an improved method to retrieve the most abundant HCFC in the atmosphere, allowing its evolution to be monitored independently in the troposphere and stratosphere. These kinds of contributions are fundamental for scrutinizing the fulfilment of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer.
Ann R. Stavert, Simon O'Doherty, Kieran Stanley, Dickon Young, Alistair J. Manning, Mark F. Lunt, Christopher Rennick, and Tim Arnold
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 4495–4518, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-4495-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-4495-2019, 2019
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Under the UK GAUGE project, two new greenhouse gas observation sites were established in the 2013/2014 winter at two telecommunications towers. A combination of spectroscopic and chromatographic instrumentation was used to measure CO2, CH4, CO, N2O and SF6. The advantages and disadvantages of two CRDS sample drying strategies, Nafion(R) and empirical water correction, were also examined.
Jens Mühle, Cathy M. Trudinger, Luke M. Western, Matthew Rigby, Martin K. Vollmer, Sunyoung Park, Alistair J. Manning, Daniel Say, Anita Ganesan, L. Paul Steele, Diane J. Ivy, Tim Arnold, Shanlan Li, Andreas Stohl, Christina M. Harth, Peter K. Salameh, Archie McCulloch, Simon O'Doherty, Mi-Kyung Park, Chun Ok Jo, Dickon Young, Kieran M. Stanley, Paul B. Krummel, Blagoj Mitrevski, Ove Hermansen, Chris Lunder, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Bo Yao, Jooil Kim, Benjamin Hmiel, Christo Buizert, Vasilii V. Petrenko, Jgor Arduini, Michela Maione, David M. Etheridge, Eleni Michalopoulou, Mike Czerniak, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Stefan Reimann, Peter G. Simmonds, Paul J. Fraser, Ronald G. Prinn, and Ray F. Weiss
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10335–10359, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10335-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10335-2019, 2019
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We discuss atmospheric concentrations and emissions of the strong greenhouse gas perfluorocyclobutane. A large fraction of recent emissions stem from China, India, and Russia, probably as a by-product from the production of fluoropolymers and fluorochemicals. Most historic emissions likely stem from developed countries. Total emissions are higher than what is being reported. Clearly, more measurements and better reporting are needed to understand emissions of this and other greenhouse gases.
Daniel Say, Anita L. Ganesan, Mark F. Lunt, Matthew Rigby, Simon O'Doherty, Christina Harth, Alistair J. Manning, Paul B. Krummel, and Stephane Bauguitte
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9865–9885, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9865-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9865-2019, 2019
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Despite its emergence as a global economic power, very little information exists regarding India's halocarbon (CFC, HCFC, HFC and chlorocarbon) emissions. We report atmospheric measurements of these gases from above India, and use them to estimate India's emissions. Our results are consistent with the emissions profile of a developing country, with large emissions of HCFCs, HFCs and chlorocarbons not regulated under the Montreal Protocol, but little evidence for ongoing CFC consumption.
Stuart N. Riddick, Denise L. Mauzerall, Michael Celia, Neil R. P. Harris, Grant Allen, Joseph Pitt, John Staunton-Sykes, Grant L. Forster, Mary Kang, David Lowry, Euan G. Nisbet, and Alistair J. Manning
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9787–9796, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9787-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9787-2019, 2019
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Currently, bottom-up methods estimate that 0.13 % of methane produced by UK North Sea oil and gas installations is lost. Here we measure emissions from eight platforms in the North Sea and, when considered collectively, the methane loss is estimated at 0.19 % of gas production. As this ambient loss is not explicitly accounted for in the bottom-up approach, these measured emissions represent significant additional emissions above previous estimates.
Joseph R. Pitt, Grant Allen, Stéphane J.-B. Bauguitte, Martin W. Gallagher, James D. Lee, Will Drysdale, Beth Nelson, Alistair J. Manning, and Paul I. Palmer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8931–8945, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8931-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8931-2019, 2019
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This paper presents a new method to assess inventory estimates of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions for large cities and their surrounding regions. A case study using data sampled by a research aircraft around London was used to test the method. We found that the UK national inventory agrees with our observations for CO but needed lower emissions for CH4 to agree with the measured data. Repeated studies could help determine how these emissions vary on different timescales.
David D. Parrish, Richard G. Derwent, Simon O'Doherty, and Peter G. Simmonds
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 3383–3394, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-3383-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-3383-2019, 2019
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We present a flexible method that employs a power series expansion and Fourier series analysis to characterize the average long-term change and seasonal cycle, respectively, from a time series of observations of a trace atmospheric species. This approach maximizes the statistically significant information derived, including non-linear aspects of the long-term trends, without over fitting the data. Generally, a small set of parameter values (e.g., 7 or 8) provides this characterization.
Emily D. White, Matthew Rigby, Mark F. Lunt, T. Luke Smallman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Alistair J. Manning, Anita L. Ganesan, Simon O'Doherty, Ann R. Stavert, Kieran Stanley, Mathew Williams, Peter Levy, Michel Ramonet, Grant L. Forster, Andrew C. Manning, and Paul I. Palmer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 4345–4365, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4345-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4345-2019, 2019
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Understanding carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes from the terrestrial biosphere on a national scale is important for evaluating land use strategies to mitigate climate change. We estimate emissions of CO2 from the UK biosphere using atmospheric data in a top-down approach. Our findings show that bottom-up estimates from models of biospheric fluxes overestimate the amount of CO2 uptake in summer. This suggests these models wrongly estimate or omit key processes, e.g. land disturbance due to harvest.
Carole Helfter, Neil Mullinger, Massimo Vieno, Simon O'Doherty, Michel Ramonet, Paul I. Palmer, and Eiko Nemitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3043–3063, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3043-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3043-2019, 2019
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We present a novel approach to estimate the annual budgets of carbon dioxide (881.0 ± 128.5 Tg) and methane (2.55 ± 0.48 Tg) of the British Isles from shipborne measurements taken over a 3-year period (2015–2017). This study brings independent verification of the emission budgets estimated using alternative products and investigates the seasonality of these emissions, which is usually not possible.
Kieran Brophy, Heather Graven, Alistair J. Manning, Emily White, Tim Arnold, Marc L. Fischer, Seongeun Jeong, Xinguang Cui, and Matthew Rigby
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2991–3006, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2991-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2991-2019, 2019
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We investigate potential errors and uncertainties related to the spatial and temporal prior representation of emissions and modelled atmospheric transport for the inversion of California's fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Our results indicate that uncertainties in posterior total state fossil fuel CO2 estimates arising from the choice of prior emissions or atmospheric transport model are on the order of 15 % or less for the ground-based network in California we consider.
Daniel Say, Anita L. Ganesan, Mark F. Lunt, Matthew Rigby, Simon O'Doherty, Chris Harth, Alistair J. Manning, Paul B. Krummel, and Stephane Bauguitte
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-1287, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-1287, 2019
Publication in ACP not foreseen
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India is a potentially significant source of chlorocarbons, gases typically used as solvents and feedstocks. Given the potential for these species to deplete stratospheric ozone, understanding their sources is important. We use flask measurements collected from an aircraft to infer India's chlorocarbon emissions. We link emissions of carbon tetrachloride to the industrial production of other chloromethanes, and provide evidence for rapid growth in India's emissions of dichloromethane.
Sarah Connors, Alistair J. Manning, Andrew D. Robinson, Stuart N. Riddick, Grant L. Forster, Anita Ganesan, Aoife Grant, Stephen Humphrey, Simon O'Doherty, Dave E. Oram, Paul I. Palmer, Robert L. Skelton, Kieran Stanley, Ann Stavert, Dickon Young, and Neil R. P. Harris
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-1187, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-1187, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
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Methane is an important greenhouse gas & reducing its emissions is a vital part of climate change mitigation to limit global temperature increase to 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C. This paper explains a way to estimate emitted methane over a sub-national area by combining measurements & computer dispersion modelling in a so-called
inversiontechnique. Compared with the current national inventory, our results show lower emissions for Cambridgeshire, possibly due to waste sector emission differences.
Tim Arnold, Alistair J. Manning, Jooil Kim, Shanlan Li, Helen Webster, David Thomson, Jens Mühle, Ray F. Weiss, Sunyoung Park, and Simon O'Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13305–13320, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13305-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13305-2018, 2018
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Emissions of carbon tetrafluoride CF4, NF3 and CHF3 in east Asia have been calculated using atmospheric measurements and an atmospheric transport model. We calculate emissions of CF4 to be quite constant between the years 2008 and 2015 for both China and South Korea, with 2015 emissions calculated at 4.33 ± 2.65 Gg yr-1 and 0.36 ± 0.11 Gg yr-1, respectively. Emission estimates of NF3 from South Korea could be made with relatively small uncertainty at 0.6 ± 0.07 Gg yr-1 in 2015.
Paul I. Palmer, Simon O'Doherty, Grant Allen, Keith Bower, Hartmut Bösch, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sarah Connors, Sandip Dhomse, Liang Feng, Douglas P. Finch, Martin W. Gallagher, Emanuel Gloor, Siegfried Gonzi, Neil R. P. Harris, Carole Helfter, Neil Humpage, Brian Kerridge, Diane Knappett, Roderic L. Jones, Michael Le Breton, Mark F. Lunt, Alistair J. Manning, Stephan Matthiesen, Jennifer B. A. Muller, Neil Mullinger, Eiko Nemitz, Sebastian O'Shea, Robert J. Parker, Carl J. Percival, Joseph Pitt, Stuart N. Riddick, Matthew Rigby, Harjinder Sembhi, Richard Siddans, Robert L. Skelton, Paul Smith, Hannah Sonderfeld, Kieran Stanley, Ann R. Stavert, Angelina Wenger, Emily White, Christopher Wilson, and Dickon Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11753–11777, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11753-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11753-2018, 2018
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This paper provides an overview of the Greenhouse gAs Uk and Global Emissions (GAUGE) experiment. GAUGE was designed to quantify nationwide GHG emissions of the UK, bringing together measurements and atmospheric transport models. This novel experiment is the first of its kind. We anticipate it will inform the blueprint for countries that are building a measurement infrastructure in preparation for global stocktakes, which are a key part of the Paris Agreement.
Sunyoung Park, Shanlan Li, Jens Mühle, Simon O'Doherty, Ray F. Weiss, Xuekun Fang, Stefan Reimann, and Ronald G. Prinn
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11729–11738, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11729-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11729-2018, 2018
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Multi-year, real-time atmospheric carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) record obtained at Gosan station (33° N, 126° E) presents evidence of significant unreported emissions of this first-generation ozone-depleting substance. The missing emissions (~ 19 Gg yr−1) for China contribute to approximately 54 % of global emissions and are most likely related to CCl4 escape occurring during the production of chlorinated compounds and their usage as feedstocks and process agents in chemical manufacturing industries.
Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, Jgor Arduini, Tim Arnold, H. Langley DeWitt, Paul J. Fraser, Anita L. Ganesan, Jimmy Gasore, Christina M. Harth, Ove Hermansen, Jooil Kim, Paul B. Krummel, Shanlan Li, Zoë M. Loh, Chris R. Lunder, Michela Maione, Alistair J. Manning, Ben R. Miller, Blagoj Mitrevski, Jens Mühle, Simon O'Doherty, Sunyoung Park, Stefan Reimann, Matt Rigby, Takuya Saito, Peter K. Salameh, Roland Schmidt, Peter G. Simmonds, L. Paul Steele, Martin K. Vollmer, Ray H. Wang, Bo Yao, Yoko Yokouchi, Dickon Young, and Lingxi Zhou
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 985–1018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-985-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-985-2018, 2018
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We present the data and accomplishments of the multinational global atmospheric measurement program AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment). At high frequency and at multiple sites, AGAGE measures all the important chemicals in the Montreal Protocol for the protection of the ozone layer and the non-carbon-dioxide gases assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. AGAGE uses these data to estimate sources and sinks of all these gases and has operated since 1978.
Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Sandra Arndt, Anita L. Ganesan, Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo, and Edward R. C. Hornibrook
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2009–2032, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2009-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2009-2018, 2018
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Soil bacteria known as methanotrophs are the only biological sink for atmospheric methane (CH4). Their activity depends on climatic and edaphic conditions, thus varies spatially and temporarily. Based on this, we developed a model (MeMo v1.0) to assess the global CH4 consumption by soils. The global CH4 uptake was 33.5 Tg CH4 yr-1 for 1990–2009, with an increasing trend of 0.1 Tg CH4 yr-2. The regional analysis proved that warm and semiarid regions represent the most efficient CH4 sink.
Peter G. Simmonds, Matthew Rigby, Archie McCulloch, Martin K. Vollmer, Stephan Henne, Jens Mühle, Simon O'Doherty, Alistair J. Manning, Paul B. Krummel, Paul J. Fraser, Dickon Young, Ray F. Weiss, Peter K. Salameh, Christina M. Harth, Stefan Reimann, Cathy M. Trudinger, L. Paul Steele, Ray H. J. Wang, Diane J. Ivy, Ronald G. Prinn, Blagoj Mitrevski, and David M. Etheridge
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4153–4169, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4153-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4153-2018, 2018
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Recent measurements of the potent greenhouse gas HFC-23, a by-product of HCFC-22 production, show a 28 % increase in the atmospheric mole fraction from 2009 to 2016. A minimum in the atmospheric abundance of HFC-23 in 2009 was attributed to abatement of HFC-23 emissions by incineration under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Our results indicate that the recent increase in HFC-23 emissions is driven by failure of mitigation under the CDM to keep pace with increased HCFC-22 production.
Fabian Schoenenberger, Stephan Henne, Matthias Hill, Martin K. Vollmer, Giorgos Kouvarakis, Nikolaos Mihalopoulos, Simon O'Doherty, Michela Maione, Lukas Emmenegger, Thomas Peter, and Stefan Reimann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4069–4092, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4069-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4069-2018, 2018
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Anthropogenic halocarbon emissions contribute to stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. We measured atmospheric halocarbons for 6 months on Crete to extend the coverage of the existing observation network to the Eastern Mediterranean. The derived emission estimates showed a contribution of 16.8 % (13.6–23.3 %) and 53.2 % (38.1–84.2 %) of this region to the total HFC and HCFC emissions of the analyzed European domain and a reduction of the underlying uncertainties by 40–80 %.
Isabelle Pison, Antoine Berchet, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Grégoire Broquet, Sébastien Conil, Marc Delmotte, Anita Ganesan, Olivier Laurent, Damien Martin, Simon O'Doherty, Michel Ramonet, T. Gerard Spain, Alex Vermeulen, and Camille Yver Kwok
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3779–3798, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3779-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3779-2018, 2018
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Methane emissions on the national scale in France in 2012 are inferred by assimilating continuous atmospheric mixing ratio measurements from nine stations of the European network ICOS. Two complementary inversion set-ups are computed and analysed: (i) a regional run correcting for the spatial distribution of fluxes in France and (ii) a sectorial run correcting fluxes for activity sectors on the national scale. The results are compared with existing inventories and other regional inversions.
Kieran M. Stanley, Aoife Grant, Simon O'Doherty, Dickon Young, Alistair J. Manning, Ann R. Stavert, T. Gerard Spain, Peter K. Salameh, Christina M. Harth, Peter G. Simmonds, William T. Sturges, David E. Oram, and Richard G. Derwent
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 1437–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1437-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1437-2018, 2018
Peter Bergamaschi, Ute Karstens, Alistair J. Manning, Marielle Saunois, Aki Tsuruta, Antoine Berchet, Alexander T. Vermeulen, Tim Arnold, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Samuel Hammer, Ingeborg Levin, Martina Schmidt, Michel Ramonet, Morgan Lopez, Jost Lavric, Tuula Aalto, Huilin Chen, Dietrich G. Feist, Christoph Gerbig, László Haszpra, Ove Hermansen, Giovanni Manca, John Moncrieff, Frank Meinhardt, Jaroslaw Necki, Michal Galkowski, Simon O'Doherty, Nina Paramonova, Hubertus A. Scheeren, Martin Steinbacher, and Ed Dlugokencky
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 901–920, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-901-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-901-2018, 2018
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European methane (CH4) emissions are estimated for 2006–2012 using atmospheric in situ measurements from 18 European monitoring stations and 7 different inverse models. Our analysis highlights the potential significant contribution of natural emissions from wetlands (including peatlands and wet soils) to the total European emissions. The top-down estimates of total EU-28 CH4 emissions are broadly consistent with the sum of reported anthropogenic CH4 emissions and the estimated natural emissions.
Martin K. Vollmer, Dickon Young, Cathy M. Trudinger, Jens Mühle, Stephan Henne, Matthew Rigby, Sunyoung Park, Shanlan Li, Myriam Guillevic, Blagoj Mitrevski, Christina M. Harth, Benjamin R. Miller, Stefan Reimann, Bo Yao, L. Paul Steele, Simon A. Wyss, Chris R. Lunder, Jgor Arduini, Archie McCulloch, Songhao Wu, Tae Siek Rhee, Ray H. J. Wang, Peter K. Salameh, Ove Hermansen, Matthias Hill, Ray L. Langenfelds, Diane Ivy, Simon O'Doherty, Paul B. Krummel, Michela Maione, David M. Etheridge, Lingxi Zhou, Paul J. Fraser, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, and Peter G. Simmonds
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 979–1002, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-979-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-979-2018, 2018
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We measured the three chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) CFC-13, CFC-114, and CFC-115 in the atmosphere because they are important in stratospheric ozone depletion. These compounds should have decreased in the atmosphere because they are banned by the Montreal Protocol but we find the opposite. Emissions over the last decade have not declined on a global scale. We use inverse modeling and our observations to find that a large part of the emissions originate in the Asian region.
Kelley C. Wells, Dylan B. Millet, Nicolas Bousserez, Daven K. Henze, Timothy J. Griffis, Sreelekha Chaliyakunnel, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Eri Saikawa, Gao Xiang, Ronald G. Prinn, Simon O'Doherty, Dickon Young, Ray F. Weiss, Geoff S. Dutton, James W. Elkins, Paul B. Krummel, Ray Langenfelds, and L. Paul Steele
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 735–756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-735-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-735-2018, 2018
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This paper uses three different frameworks to derive nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions based on global surface observations. One of these frameworks employs a new approach that allows for fast computation and explores a larger solution space than other methods. Our results point to a few conclusions about the global N2O budget, including a larger contribution from tropical sources, an overestimate of natural soil emissions, and an underestimate of agricultural sources particularly in springtime.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Ray Weiss, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
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Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
Dominik Brunner, Tim Arnold, Stephan Henne, Alistair Manning, Rona L. Thompson, Michela Maione, Simon O'Doherty, and Stefan Reimann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10651–10674, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10651-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10651-2017, 2017
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Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and SF6 are industrially produced gases with a large greenhouse-gas warming potential. In this study, we estimated the emissions of HFCs and SF6 over Europe by combining measurements at three background stations with four different model systems. We identified significant differences between our estimates and nationally reported numbers, but also found that the network of only three sites in Europe is insufficient to reliably attribute emissions to individual countries.
Stuart N. Riddick, Sarah Connors, Andrew D. Robinson, Alistair J. Manning, Pippa S. D. Jones, David Lowry, Euan Nisbet, Robert L. Skelton, Grant Allen, Joseph Pitt, and Neil R. P. Harris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 7839–7851, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7839-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7839-2017, 2017
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High methane mixing ratios occurred at our long-term measurement site. Isotopic measurements show the source is a landfill 7 km away; the emissions were estimated using three different approaches. The emission estimates made by near-source and middle-distance methods agree well for a period of intense observation. The estimate of the inverse modelling is similar to the labour-intensive middle-distance approach, which shows it can be used to identify point sources within an emission landscape.
Malte Meinshausen, Elisabeth Vogel, Alexander Nauels, Katja Lorbacher, Nicolai Meinshausen, David M. Etheridge, Paul J. Fraser, Stephen A. Montzka, Peter J. Rayner, Cathy M. Trudinger, Paul B. Krummel, Urs Beyerle, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Ian G. Enting, Rachel M. Law, Chris R. Lunder, Simon O'Doherty, Ron G. Prinn, Stefan Reimann, Mauro Rubino, Guus J. M. Velders, Martin K. Vollmer, Ray H. J. Wang, and Ray Weiss
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2057–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, 2017
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Climate change is primarily driven by human-induced increases of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Based on ongoing community efforts (e.g. AGAGE and NOAA networks, ice cores), this study presents historical concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O and 40 other GHGs from year 0 to year 2014. The data is recommended as input for climate models for pre-industrial, historical runs under CMIP6. Global means, but also latitudinal by monthly surface concentration fields are provided.
Peter G. Simmonds, Matthew Rigby, Archie McCulloch, Simon O'Doherty, Dickon Young, Jens Mühle, Paul B. Krummel, Paul Steele, Paul J. Fraser, Alistair J. Manning, Ray F. Weiss, Peter K. Salameh, Chris M. Harth, Ray H. J. Wang, and Ronald G. Prinn
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4641–4655, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4641-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4641-2017, 2017
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This paper reports how long-term atmospheric measurements demonstrate that the Montreal Protocol has been effective in controlling production and consumption of the hydrochlorofluorocarbons, a group of industrial chemicals that have detrimental effects on the ozone layer and also contribute to global warming as greenhouse gases and their hydrofluorocarbon substitutes which are also potent greenhouse gases but do not materially affect the ozone layer.
Whitney Bader, Benoît Bovy, Stephanie Conway, Kimberly Strong, Dan Smale, Alexander J. Turner, Thomas Blumenstock, Chris Boone, Martine Collaud Coen, Ancelin Coulon, Omaira Garcia, David W. T. Griffith, Frank Hase, Petra Hausmann, Nicholas Jones, Paul Krummel, Isao Murata, Isamu Morino, Hideaki Nakajima, Simon O'Doherty, Clare Paton-Walsh, John Robinson, Rodrigue Sandrin, Matthias Schneider, Christian Servais, Ralf Sussmann, and Emmanuel Mahieu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2255–2277, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2255-2017, 2017
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An increase of 0.31 ± 0.03 % year−1 of atmospheric methane is reported using 10 years of solar observations performed at 10 ground-based stations since 2005. These trend agree with a GEOS-Chem-tagged simulation that accounts for the contribution of each emission source and one sink in the total methane. The GEOS-Chem simulation shows that anthropogenic emissions from coal mining and gas and oil transport and exploration have played a major role in the increase methane since 2005.
Martyn P. Chipperfield, Qing Liang, Matthew Rigby, Ryan Hossaini, Stephen A. Montzka, Sandip Dhomse, Wuhu Feng, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, Christina M. Harth, Peter K. Salameh, Jens Mühle, Simon O'Doherty, Dickon Young, Peter G. Simmonds, Paul B. Krummel, Paul J. Fraser, L. Paul Steele, James D. Happell, Robert C. Rhew, James Butler, Shari A. Yvon-Lewis, Bradley Hall, David Nance, Fred Moore, Ben R. Miller, James W. Elkins, Jeremy J. Harrison, Chris D. Boone, Elliot L. Atlas, and Emmanuel Mahieu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15741–15754, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15741-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15741-2016, 2016
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Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) is a compound which, when released into the atmosphere, can cause depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer. Its emissions are controlled under the Montreal Protocol, and its atmospheric abundance is slowly decreasing. However, this decrease is not as fast as expected based on estimates of its emissions and its atmospheric lifetime. We have used an atmospheric model to look at the uncertainties in the CCl4 lifetime and to examine the impact on its atmospheric decay.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
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An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Florian Obersteiner, Harald Bönisch, Timo Keber, Simon O'Doherty, and Andreas Engel
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 5265–5279, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5265-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5265-2016, 2016
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The analysis of trace gases in ambient air requires a preconcentration technique, in many cases to make the species of interest detectable and quantifiable. In this paper, such a preconcentration set-up is presented. Target species are trapped on adsorptive material cooled by a Stirling cooler which allows for a very low adsorption temperature but only requires electrical power. A simple and lightweight mechanical design guarantees very good suitability for remote-site field operation.
Francesco Graziosi, Jgor Arduini, Paolo Bonasoni, Francesco Furlani, Umberto Giostra, Alistair J. Manning, Archie McCulloch, Simon O'Doherty, Peter G. Simmonds, Stefan Reimann, Martin K. Vollmer, and Michela Maione
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12849–12859, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12849-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12849-2016, 2016
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Carbon tetrachloride is an ozone-depleting greenhouse gas banned under the Montreal Protocol. Measurements of atmospheric levels combined with global transport models indicate that it is still being emitted, in contrast to what is reported. In order to help solve the "mystery of carbon tetrachloride", we estimated European emissions during 2006–2014 using atmospheric observations and models. We identified emission hot spots and showed inconsistencies in national emission declarations.
Cathy M. Trudinger, Paul J. Fraser, David M. Etheridge, William T. Sturges, Martin K. Vollmer, Matt Rigby, Patricia Martinerie, Jens Mühle, David R. Worton, Paul B. Krummel, L. Paul Steele, Benjamin R. Miller, Johannes Laube, Francis S. Mani, Peter J. Rayner, Christina M. Harth, Emmanuel Witrant, Thomas Blunier, Jakob Schwander, Simon O'Doherty, and Mark Battle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 11733–11754, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11733-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11733-2016, 2016
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Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) are potent, long-lived and mostly man-made greenhouse gases released to the atmosphere mainly during aluminium production and semiconductor manufacture. Here we present the first continuous histories of three PFCs from 1800 to 2014, derived from measurements of these PFCs in the atmosphere and in air bubbles in polar ice. The records show how human actions have affected these important greenhouse gases over the past century.
Mark F. Lunt, Matt Rigby, Anita L. Ganesan, and Alistair J. Manning
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3213–3229, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3213-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3213-2016, 2016
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Bayesian inversions can be used to estimate emissions of gases from atmospheric data. We present an inversion framework that objectively defines the basis functions, which describe regions of emissions. The framework allows for the uncertainty in the choice of basis functions to be propagated through to the posterior emissions distribution in a single-step process, and provides an alternative to using a single set of basis functions.
Joe McNorton, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Manuel Gloor, Chris Wilson, Wuhu Feng, Garry D. Hayman, Matt Rigby, Paul B. Krummel, Simon O'Doherty, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, Dickon Young, Ed Dlugokencky, and Steve A. Montzka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7943–7956, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7943-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7943-2016, 2016
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Methane (CH4) is an important greenhouse gas. The growth of atmospheric CH4 stalled from 1999 to 2006, with current explanations focussed mainly on changing surface fluxes. We combine models with observations and meteorological data to assess the atmospheric contribution to CH4 changes. We find that variations in mean atmospheric hydroxyl concentration can explain part of the stall in growth. Our study highlights the role of multi-annual variability in atmospheric chemistry in global CH4 trends.
Luke M. Western, Peter N. Francis, I. Matthew Watson, and Shona Mackie
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2016-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2016-92, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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This work aims to infer the size distribution of airborne volcanic ash using satellite measurements. The size distribution of volcanic ash is typically described using two parameters, of which one is normally assumed and one can be measured using satellites. This work shows that it is possible, using a satellite with high spectral resolution, to retrieve both parameters. This work has been done to reduce uncertainty in mass calculations for airspace management during volcanic unrest.
M. Chirkov, G. P. Stiller, A. Laeng, S. Kellmann, T. von Clarmann, C. D. Boone, J. W. Elkins, A. Engel, N. Glatthor, U. Grabowski, C. M. Harth, M. Kiefer, F. Kolonjari, P. B. Krummel, A. Linden, C. R. Lunder, B. R. Miller, S. A. Montzka, J. Mühle, S. O'Doherty, J. Orphal, R. G. Prinn, G. Toon, M. K. Vollmer, K. A. Walker, R. F. Weiss, A. Wiegele, and D. Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3345–3368, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3345-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3345-2016, 2016
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HCFC-22 global distributions from MIPAS measurements for 2005 to 2012 are presented. Tropospheric trends are in good agreement with ground-based observations. A layer of enhanced HCFC-22 in the upper tropospheric tropics and northern subtropics is identified to come from Asian sources uplifted in the Asian monsoon. Stratospheric distributions provide show seasonal, semi-annual, and QBO-related variations. Hemispheric asymmetries of trends hint towards a change in the stratospheric circulation.
P. G. Simmonds, M. Rigby, A. J. Manning, M. F. Lunt, S. O'Doherty, A. McCulloch, P. J. Fraser, S. Henne, M. K. Vollmer, J. Mühle, R. F. Weiss, P. K. Salameh, D. Young, S. Reimann, A. Wenger, T. Arnold, C. M. Harth, P. B. Krummel, L. P. Steele, B. L. Dunse, B. R. Miller, C. R. Lunder, O. Hermansen, N. Schmidbauer, T. Saito, Y. Yokouchi, S. Park, S. Li, B. Yao, L. X. Zhou, J. Arduini, M. Maione, R. H. J. Wang, D. Ivy, and R. G. Prinn
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 365–382, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-365-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-365-2016, 2016
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We report regional and global emissions estimates of HFC-152a using high frequency measurements from 11 observing sites and archived air samples dating back to 1978 together with atmospheric transport models. The "bottom-up" emissions of HFC-152a reported to the UNFCCC appear to significantly underestimate those reported here from observations. This discrepancy we suggest arises from largely underestimated USA and undeclared Asian emissions.
K. J. Beven, W. P. Aspinall, P. D. Bates, E. Borgomeo, K. Goda, J. W. Hall, T. Page, J. C. Phillips, J. T. Rougier, M. Simpson, D. B. Stephenson, P. J. Smith, T. Wagener, and M. Watson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-7333-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-7333-2015, 2015
Preprint withdrawn
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Uncertainties in natural hazard risk assessment are generally dominated by the sources arising from lack of knowledge or understanding of the processes involved. This is Part 1 of 2 papers reviewing these epistemic uncertainties that can be difficult to constrain, especially in terms of event or scenario probabilities. It is based on the work of the CREDIBLE research consortium on Risk and Uncertainty in Natural Hazards.
K. C. Wells, D. B. Millet, N. Bousserez, D. K. Henze, S. Chaliyakunnel, T. J. Griffis, Y. Luan, E. J. Dlugokencky, R. G. Prinn, S. O'Doherty, R. F. Weiss, G. S. Dutton, J. W. Elkins, P. B. Krummel, R. Langenfelds, L. P. Steele, E. A. Kort, S. C. Wofsy, and T. Umezawa
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3179–3198, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3179-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3179-2015, 2015
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This paper introduces a new inversion framework for N2O using GEOS-Chem and its adjoint, which we employed in a series of observing system simulation experiments to evaluate the source and sink constraints provided by surface and aircraft-based N2O measurements. We also applied a new approach for estimating a posteriori uncertainty for high-dimensional inversions, and used it to quantify the spatial and temporal resolution of N2O emission constraints achieved with the current observing network.
A. L. Ganesan, A. J. Manning, A. Grant, D. Young, D .E. Oram, W. T. Sturges, J. B. Moncrieff, and S. O'Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6393–6406, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6393-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6393-2015, 2015
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The UK is one of several countries to enact legislation to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. We present top-down emissions of methane and nitrous oxide for the UK and Ireland over 2012-2014. We inferred average UK emissions of 2.09Tg/yr CH4 and 0.101Tg/yr N2O and used sectoral distributions to determine whether these discrepancies can be attributed to specific source sectors. We found the agricultural sector likely to be overestimated in the bottom-up emissions inventories of both gases.
P. Bergamaschi, M. Corazza, U. Karstens, M. Athanassiadou, R. L. Thompson, I. Pison, A. J. Manning, P. Bousquet, A. Segers, A. T. Vermeulen, G. Janssens-Maenhout, M. Schmidt, M. Ramonet, F. Meinhardt, T. Aalto, L. Haszpra, J. Moncrieff, M. E. Popa, D. Lowry, M. Steinbacher, A. Jordan, S. O'Doherty, S. Piacentino, and E. Dlugokencky
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 715–736, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-715-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-715-2015, 2015
S. J. O'Shea, G. Allen, M. W. Gallagher, K. Bower, S. M. Illingworth, J. B. A. Muller, B. T. Jones, C. J. Percival, S. J-B. Bauguitte, M. Cain, N. Warwick, A. Quiquet, U. Skiba, J. Drewer, K. Dinsmore, E. G. Nisbet, D. Lowry, R. E. Fisher, J. L. France, M. Aurela, A. Lohila, G. Hayman, C. George, D. B. Clark, A. J. Manning, A. D. Friend, and J. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13159–13174, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13159-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13159-2014, 2014
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This paper presents airborne measurements of greenhouse gases collected in the European Arctic. Regional scale flux estimates for the northern Scandinavian wetlands are derived. These fluxes are found to be in excellent agreement with coincident surface measurements within the aircraft's sampling domain. This has allowed a significant low bias to be identified in two commonly used process-based land surface models.
M. Maione, F. Graziosi, J. Arduini, F. Furlani, U. Giostra, D. R. Blake, P. Bonasoni, X. Fang, S. A. Montzka, S. J. O'Doherty, S. Reimann, A. Stohl, and M. K. Vollmer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9755–9770, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9755-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9755-2014, 2014
S. O'Doherty, M. Rigby, J. Mühle, D. J. Ivy, B. R. Miller, D. Young, P. G. Simmonds, S. Reimann, M. K. Vollmer, P. B. Krummel, P. J. Fraser, L. P. Steele, B. Dunse, P. K. Salameh, C. M. Harth, T. Arnold, R. F. Weiss, J. Kim, S. Park, S. Li, C. Lunder, O. Hermansen, N. Schmidbauer, L. X. Zhou, B. Yao, R. H. J. Wang, A. J. Manning, and R. G. Prinn
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9249–9258, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9249-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9249-2014, 2014
S. N. Vardag, S. Hammer, S. O'Doherty, T. G. Spain, B. Wastine, A. Jordan, and I. Levin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8403–8418, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8403-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8403-2014, 2014
R. L. Thompson, K. Ishijima, E. Saikawa, M. Corazza, U. Karstens, P. K. Patra, P. Bergamaschi, F. Chevallier, E. Dlugokencky, R. G. Prinn, R. F. Weiss, S. O'Doherty, P. J. Fraser, L. P. Steele, P. B. Krummel, A. Vermeulen, Y. Tohjima, A. Jordan, L. Haszpra, M. Steinbacher, S. Van der Laan, T. Aalto, F. Meinhardt, M. E. Popa, J. Moncrieff, and P. Bousquet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6177–6194, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6177-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6177-2014, 2014
E. Saikawa, R. G. Prinn, E. Dlugokencky, K. Ishijima, G. S. Dutton, B. D. Hall, R. Langenfelds, Y. Tohjima, T. Machida, M. Manizza, M. Rigby, S. O'Doherty, P. K. Patra, C. M. Harth, R. F. Weiss, P. B. Krummel, M. van der Schoot, P. J. Fraser, L. P. Steele, S. Aoki, T. Nakazawa, and J. W. Elkins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4617–4641, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4617-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4617-2014, 2014
R. L. Thompson, P. K. Patra, K. Ishijima, E. Saikawa, M. Corazza, U. Karstens, C. Wilson, P. Bergamaschi, E. Dlugokencky, C. Sweeney, R. G. Prinn, R. F. Weiss, S. O'Doherty, P. J. Fraser, L. P. Steele, P. B. Krummel, M. Saunois, M. Chipperfield, and P. Bousquet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4349–4368, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4349-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4349-2014, 2014
A. L. Ganesan, M. Rigby, A. Zammit-Mangion, A. J. Manning, R. G. Prinn, P. J. Fraser, C. M. Harth, K.-R. Kim, P. B. Krummel, S. Li, J. Mühle, S. J. O'Doherty, S. Park, P. K. Salameh, L. P. Steele, and R. F. Weiss
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3855–3864, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3855-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3855-2014, 2014
M. J. Ashfold, N. R. P. Harris, A. J. Manning, A. D. Robinson, N. J. Warwick, and J. A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 979–994, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-979-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-979-2014, 2014
A. L. Ganesan, A. Chatterjee, R. G. Prinn, C. M. Harth, P. K. Salameh, A. J. Manning, B. D. Hall, J. Mühle, L. K. Meredith, R. F. Weiss, S. O'Doherty, and D. Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10633–10644, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10633-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10633-2013, 2013
D. A. Belikov, S. Maksyutov, M. Krol, A. Fraser, M. Rigby, H. Bian, A. Agusti-Panareda, D. Bergmann, P. Bousquet, P. Cameron-Smith, M. P. Chipperfield, A. Fortems-Cheiney, E. Gloor, K. Haynes, P. Hess, S. Houweling, S. R. Kawa, R. M. Law, Z. Loh, L. Meng, P. I. Palmer, P. K. Patra, R. G. Prinn, R. Saito, and C. Wilson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1093–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1093-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1093-2013, 2013
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WOMBAT v1.0: a fully Bayesian global flux-inversion framework
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Prabhakar Shrestha, Jana Mendrok, Velibor Pejcic, Silke Trömel, Ulrich Blahak, and Jacob T. Carlin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 291–313, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-291-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-291-2022, 2022
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The article focuses on the exploitation of radar polarimetry for model evaluation of stratiform precipitation. The model exhibited a low bias in simulated polarimetric moments at lower levels above the melting layer where snow was found to dominate. This necessitates further research into the missing microphysical processes in these lower levels (e.g. fragmentation due to ice–ice collisions) and use of more reliable snow-scattering models in the forward operator to draw valid conclusions.
Mahtab Majdzadeh, Craig A. Stroud, Christopher Sioris, Paul A. Makar, Ayodeji Akingunola, Chris McLinden, Xiaoyi Zhao, Michael D. Moran, Ihab Abboud, and Jack Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 219–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-219-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-219-2022, 2022
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A new lookup table for aerosol optical properties based on a Mie scattering code was calculated and adopted within an improved version of the photolysis module in the GEM-MACH in-line chemical transport model. The modified version of the photolysis module makes use of online interactive aerosol feedback and applies core-shell parameterizations to the black carbon absorption efficiency based on Bond et al. (2006) to the size bins with black carbon mass fraction of less than 40 %.
Xiaodong Wang, Chun Zhao, Mingyue Xu, Qiuyan Du, Jianqiu Zheng, Yun Bi, Shengfu Lin, and Yali Luo
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 199–218, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-199-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-199-2022, 2022
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Regional models are widely used to investigate aerosol climatic impacts. However, there are few studies examining the sensitivities of modeling results to regional domain size. In this study, the regional model is used to study the aerosol impacts on the East Asian summer monsoon system and focus on the modeling sensitivities to domain size. This study highlights the important impacts of domain size on regional modeling results of aerosol climatic impacts, which may not be limited to East Asia.
Andrew Zammit-Mangion, Michael Bertolacci, Jenny Fisher, Ann Stavert, Matthew Rigby, Yi Cao, and Noel Cressie
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 45–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-45-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-45-2022, 2022
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We present a framework for estimating the sources and sinks (flux) of carbon dioxide from satellite data. The framework is statistical and yields measures of uncertainty alongside all estimates of flux and other parameters in the underlying model. It also allows us to generate other insights, such as the size of errors and biases in the data. The primary aim of this research was to develop a fully statistical flux inversion framework for use by atmospheric scientists.
Galina Wind, Arlindo M. da Silva, Kerry G. Meyer, Steven Platnick, and Peter M. Norris
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1-2022, 2022
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This is the third paper in series about the Multi-sensor Cloud and Aerosol Retrieval Simulator (MCARS). In this paper we use MCARS to create a set of constraints that might be used to assimilate a new above-cloud aerosol retrieval product developed for the MODIS instrument into a general circulation model. We executed the above-cloud aerosol retrieval over a series of synthetic MODIS granules and found the product to be of excellent quality.
Xueying Yu, Dylan B. Millet, and Daven K. Henze
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7775–7793, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7775-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7775-2021, 2021
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We conduct observing system simulation experiments to test how well inverse analyses of high-resolution satellite data from sensors such as TROPOMI can quantify methane emissions. Inversions can improve monthly flux estimates at 25 km even with a spatially biased prior or model transport errors, but results are strongly degraded when both are present. We further evaluate a set of alternate formalisms to overcome limitations of the widely used scale factor approach that arise for missing sources.
Ruili Wu, Christopher W. Tessum, Yang Zhang, Chaopeng Hong, Yixuan Zheng, Xinyin Qin, Shigan Liu, and Qiang Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7621–7638, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7621-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7621-2021, 2021
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Reduced-complexity air quality models are less computationally intensive and easier to use. We developed a reduced-complexity air quality Intervention Model for Air Pollution over China (InMAP-China) to rapidly predict the air quality and estimate the health impacts of emission sources in China. We believe that this work will be of great interest to a broad audience, including environmentalists in China and scientists in relevant fields at both national and local institutes.
Qian Ye, Jie Li, Xueshun Chen, Huansheng Chen, Wenyi Yang, Huiyun Du, Xiaole Pan, Xiao Tang, Wei Wang, Lili Zhu, Jianjun Li, Zhe Wang, and Zifa Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7573–7604, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7573-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7573-2021, 2021
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We developed a global tropospheric atmospheric chemistry source–receptor model. This model can quantify the contributions of multiple air pollutants from various source regions in one simulation without introducing the nonlinear error of atmospheric chemistry. The S-R relationships of PM2.5 and O3 from a global high-resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) simulation were given and compared with previous studies. This model will be useful for creating a link between the scientific community and policymakers.
Alan J. Geer, Peter Bauer, Katrin Lonitz, Vasileios Barlakas, Patrick Eriksson, Jana Mendrok, Amy Doherty, James Hocking, and Philippe Chambon
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7497–7526, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7497-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7497-2021, 2021
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Satellite observations of radiation from the earth can have strong sensitivity to cloud and precipitation in the atmosphere, with applications in weather forecasting and the development of models. Computing the radiation received at the satellite sensor using radiative transfer theory requires a simulation of the optical properties of a volume containing a large number of cloud and precipitation particles. This article describes the physics used to generate these
bulkoptical properties.
Yalda Fatahi, Rostislav Kouznetsov, and Mikhail Sofiev
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7459–7475, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7459-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7459-2021, 2021
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Incorporating information on public holidays into anthropogenic sector emissions results in substantial short-term improvement of the chemistry transport model SILAM scores. The largest impact was found for NOx, which is controlled by the changes in the traffic intensity. Certain improvements were also found for other species, but the signal was weaker than that for NOx.
Mohammad Reza Heidari, Zhaoyang Song, Enrico Degregori, Jörg Behrens, and Hendryk Bockelmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7439–7457, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7439-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7439-2021, 2021
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To improve our understanding of climate system dynamics and their variability, the numerical atmospheric model ECHAM6 is used to simulate a complete glacial cycle over the past 120 000 years. However, performing such simulations takes a long time even on state-of-the-art supercomputers. To accelerate the model simulation, we propose calculating radiative transfer processes in parallel with adiabatic processes in the atmosphere, which reduces the simulation time by nearly half.
Kai Wang, Yang Zhang, Shaocai Yu, David C. Wong, Jonathan Pleim, Rohit Mathur, James T. Kelly, and Michelle Bell
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7189–7221, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7189-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7189-2021, 2021
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The two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ model accounting for complex chemistry–meteorology feedbacks has been applied to the long-term predictions of regional meteorology and air quality over the US. The model results show superior performance and importance of chemistry–meteorology feedbacks when compared to the offline coupled WRF and CMAQ simulations, which suggests that feedbacks should be considered along with other factors in developing future model applications to inform policy making.
Lya Lugon, Jérémy Vigneron, Christophe Debert, Olivier Chrétien, and Karine Sartelet
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7001–7019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7001-2021, 2021
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The multiscale Street-in-Grid model is used to simulate black carbon (BC) concentrations in streets. To respect street-surface mass balance, particle resuspension is estimated with a new approach based on deposited mass. The contribution of resuspension is low, but non-exhaust emissions from tyre wear may largely contribute to BC concentrations. The impact of the two-way dynamic coupling between scales on BC concentrations varies depending on the street geometry and traffic emission intensity.
Yao Ge, Mathew R. Heal, David S. Stevenson, Peter Wind, and Massimo Vieno
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7021–7046, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7021-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7021-2021, 2021
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This study reports the first evaluation of the global EMEP MSC-W ACTM driven by WRF meteorology, with a focus on surface concentrations and wet deposition of reactive N and S species. The model–measurement comparison is conducted both spatially and temporally, covering 10 monitoring networks worldwide. The statistics from the comprehensive evaluations presented in this study support the application of this model framework for global analysis of the budgets and fluxes of reactive N and SIA.
Laurent Menut, Bertrand Bessagnet, Régis Briant, Arineh Cholakian, Florian Couvidat, Sylvain Mailler, Romain Pennel, Guillaume Siour, Paolo Tuccella, Solène Turquety, and Myrto Valari
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6781–6811, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6781-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6781-2021, 2021
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The CHIMERE chemistry-transport model is presented in its new version, V2020r1. Many changes are proposed compared to the previous version. These include online modeling, new parameterizations for aerosols, new emissions schemes, a new parameter file format, the subgrid-scale variability of urban concentrations and new transport schemes.
Sebastian Buschow and Petra Friederichs
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6765–6780, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6765-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6765-2021, 2021
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When insects fill the lower kilometers of the atmosphere, they get caught in the convergent parts of the wind field. Their concentration visualizes the otherwise invisible circulation on radar images. This study shows how clear-air radar data can be compared to simulated wind fields in terms of scale, anisotropy, and direction. Despite known difficulties with simulating these near-surface wind systems, we find decent agreement between a long-term simulation and the German radar mosaic.
Timothy H. Raupach, Andrey Martynov, Luca Nisi, Alessandro Hering, Yannick Barton, and Olivia Martius
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6495–6514, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6495-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6495-2021, 2021
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When simulated thunderstorms are compared to observations or other simulations, a match between overall storm properties is often more important than exact matches to individual storms. We tested a comparison method that uses a thunderstorm tracking algorithm to characterise simulated storms. For May 2018 in Switzerland, the method produced reasonable matches to independent observations for most storm properties, showing its feasibility for summarising simulated storms over mountainous terrain.
Martina Klose, Oriol Jorba, María Gonçalves Ageitos, Jeronimo Escribano, Matthew L. Dawson, Vincenzo Obiso, Enza Di Tomaso, Sara Basart, Gilbert Montané Pinto, Francesca Macchia, Paul Ginoux, Juan Guerschman, Catherine Prigent, Yue Huang, Jasper F. Kok, Ron L. Miller, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6403–6444, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6403-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6403-2021, 2021
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Mineral soil dust is a major atmospheric airborne particle type. We present and evaluate MONARCH, a model used for regional and global dust-weather prediction. An important feature of the model is that it allows different approximations to represent dust, ranging from more simplified to more complex treatments. Using these different treatments, MONARCH can help us better understand impacts of dust in the Earth system, such as its interactions with radiation.
Dandan Wei, Hariprasad D. Alwe, Dylan B. Millet, Brandon Bottorff, Michelle Lew, Philip S. Stevens, Joshua D. Shutter, Joshua L. Cox, Frank N. Keutsch, Qianwen Shi, Sarah C. Kavassalis, Jennifer G. Murphy, Krystal T. Vasquez, Hannah M. Allen, Eric Praske, John D. Crounse, Paul O. Wennberg, Paul B. Shepson, Alexander A. T. Bui, Henry W. Wallace, Robert J. Griffin, Nathaniel W. May, Megan Connor, Jonathan H. Slade, Kerri A. Pratt, Ezra C. Wood, Mathew Rollings, Benjamin L. Deming, Daniel C. Anderson, and Allison L. Steiner
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6309–6329, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6309-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6309-2021, 2021
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Over the past decade, understanding of isoprene oxidation has improved, and proper representation of isoprene oxidation and isoprene-derived SOA (iSOA) formation in canopy–chemistry models is now recognized to be important for an accurate understanding of forest–atmosphere exchange. The updated FORCAsT version 2.0 improves the estimation of some isoprene oxidation products and is one of the few canopy models currently capable of simulating SOA formation from monoterpenes and isoprene.
Emanuele Emili and Mohammad El Aabaribaoune
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6291–6308, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6291-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6291-2021, 2021
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This study presents the latest version of the global ozone reanalysis product developed at Cerfacs. The reanalysis is based on the assimilation of satellite data from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) in the Météo-France chemical transport model. The results show that the quality of the ozone fields is comparable to current state-of-the-art systems and suggest that IASI provides useful information for ozone reanalyses, especially in the upper troposphere.
Mingshuai Zhang, Chun Zhao, Yuhan Yang, Qiuyan Du, Yonglin Shen, Shengfu Lin, Dasa Gu, Wenjing Su, and Cheng Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6155–6175, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6155-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6155-2021, 2021
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Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) can influence atmospheric chemistry and secondary pollutant formation. This study examines the performance of different versions of the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) in modeling BVOCs and ozone and their sensitivities to vegetation distributions over eastern China. The results suggest more accurate vegetation distribution and measurements of BVOC emission fluxes are needed to reduce the uncertainties.
Hongyi Ding, Le Cao, Haimei Jiang, Wenxing Jia, Yong Chen, and Junling An
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6135–6153, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6135-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6135-2021, 2021
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We performed a WRF model study to figure out the mechanism of how the change in minimum eddy diffusivity (Kzmin) in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) closure scheme (ACM2) affects the simulated near-surface temperature in Beijing, China. Moreover, the influence of changing Kzmin on the temperature prediction in areas with different land-use categories was studied. The model performance using a functional-type Kzmin for capturing the temperature change in this area was also clarified.
Julian Francesco Quinting, Christian Michael Grams, Annika Oertel, and Moritz Pickl
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-278, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-278, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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This study applies novel artificial intelligence-based models which allow the identification of one specific weather system which affects the midlatitude circulation. We show that the models yield similar results as their trajectory-based counterpart which requires data at higher spatio-temporal resolution and is computationally more expensive. Overall, we aim to show how deep learning methods can be used efficiently to support process-understanding of biases in weather prediction models.
Lee T. Murray, Eric M. Leibensperger, Clara Orbe, Loretta J. Mickley, and Melissa Sulprizio
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5789–5823, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5789-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5789-2021, 2021
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Chemical-transport models are tools used to study air pollution and inform public policy. However, they are limited by the availability of archived meteorology. Here, we describe how the GEOS-Chem chemical-transport model may now be driven by meteorology archived from a state-of-the-art general circulation model for past and future climates, allowing it to be used to explore the impact of climate change on air pollution and atmospheric composition.
Julian Francesco Quinting and Christian M. Grams
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-276, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-276, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Physical processes in weather systems importantly affect the midlatitude large-scale circulation. This study introduces an artificial intelligence-based framework which allows the identification of an important weather system – the so-called warm conveyor belt – at comparably low computational costs and from data at low spatial and temporal resolution. The framework thus newly enables the systematic investigation of WCBs in large data sets such as climate model projections.
Syuichi Itahashi, Rohit Mathur, Christian Hogrefe, Sergey L. Napelenok, and Yang Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5751–5768, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5751-2021, 2021
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The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system extended for hemispheric-scale applications (H-CMAQ) incorporated the satellite-constrained degassing SO2 emissions from 50 volcanos across the Northern Hemisphere. The impact on tropospheric sulfate aerosol (SO42−) is assessed for 2010. Although the considered volcanic emissions occurred at or below the middle of free troposphere (500 hPa), SO42− enhancements of more than 10 % were detected up to the top of free troposphere (250 hPa).
Wim C. de Rooy, Pier Siebesma, Peter Baas, Geert Lenderink, Stephan de Roode, Hylke de Vries, Erik van Meijgaard, Jan Fokke Meirink, Sander Tijm, and Bram van 't Veen
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-184, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-184, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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This paper describes a comprehensive model update to the boundary-layer schemes. Because the involved parameterisations are all built on widely applied frameworks, the here described modifications are applicable to many NWP and climate models. The model update contains substantial modifications to the cloud, turbulence and convection schemes and leads to a substantial improvement on several aspects of the model, especially low cloud forecasts.
Annika Vogel and Hendrik Elbern
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5583–5605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5583-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5583-2021, 2021
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While atmospheric chemical forecasts rely on uncertain model parameters, their huge dimensions hamper an efficient uncertainty estimation. This study presents a novel approach to efficiently sample these uncertainties by extracting dominant dependencies and correlations. Applying the algorithm to biogenic emissions, their uncertainties can be estimated from a low number of dominant components. This states the capability of an efficient treatment of parameter uncertainties in atmospheric models.
Jianbing Jin, Arjo Segers, Hai Xiang Lin, Bas Henzing, Xiaohui Wang, Arnold Heemink, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5607–5622, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5607-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5607-2021, 2021
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When discussing the accuracy of a dust forecast, the shape and position of the plume as well as the intensity are key elements. The position forecast determines which locations will be affected, while the intensity only describes the actual dust level. A dust forecast with position misfit directly results in incorrect timing profiles of dust loads. In this paper, an image-morphing-based data assimilation is designed for realigning a simulated dust plume to correct for the position error.
Antje Inness, Melanie Ades, Dimitris Balis, Dmitry Efremenko, Johannes Flemming, Pascal Hedelt, Maria-Elissavet Koukouli, Diego Loyola, and Roberto Ribas
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-219, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-219, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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This paper describes the way the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) produces forecasts of volcanic SO2. These forecast are provided routinely every day. They are cerated by blending SO2 data from satellite instruments (TROPOMI and GOME-2) with the CAMS model. We show that the quality of the CAMS SO2 forecasts can be improved if additional information about the height of volcanic plumes is provided in the satellite data.
Timofei Sukhodolov, Tatiana Egorova, Andrea Stenke, William T. Ball, Christina Brodowsky, Gabriel Chiodo, Aryeh Feinberg, Marina Friedel, Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Thomas Peter, Jan Sedlacek, Sandro Vattioni, and Eugene Rozanov
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5525–5560, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5525-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5525-2021, 2021
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This paper features the new atmosphere–ocean–aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOLv4.0 and its validation. The model performance is evaluated against reanalysis products and observations of atmospheric circulation and trace gas distribution, with a focus on stratospheric processes. Although we identified some problems to be addressed in further model upgrades, we demonstrated that SOCOLv4.0 is already well suited for studies related to chemistry–climate–aerosol interactions.
Haipeng Lin, Daniel J. Jacob, Elizabeth W. Lundgren, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Christoph A. Keller, Thibaud M. Fritz, Sebastian D. Eastham, Louisa K. Emmons, Patrick C. Campbell, Barry Baker, Rick D. Saylor, and Raffaele Montuoro
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5487–5506, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5487-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5487-2021, 2021
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Emissions are a central component of atmospheric chemistry models. The Harmonized Emissions Component (HEMCO) is a software component for computing emissions from a user-selected ensemble of emission inventories and algorithms. It allows users to select, add, and scale emissions from different sources through a configuration file with no change to the model source code. We demonstrate the implementation of HEMCO in several models, all sharing the same HEMCO core code and database library.
Eckhard Kadasch, Matthias Sühring, Tobias Gronemeier, and Siegfried Raasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5435–5465, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5435-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5435-2021, 2021
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In this paper, we provide a technical description of a newly developed interface for coupling the PALM model system 6.0 to the weather prediction model COSMO. The interface allows users of PALM to simulate the detailed atmospheric flow for relatively small regions of tens of kilometres under specific weather conditions, for instance, periods around observation campaigns or extreme weather situations. We demonstrate the interface using a benchmark simulation.
Sebastien Massart, Niels Bormann, Massimo Bonavita, and Cristina Lupu
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5467–5485, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5467-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5467-2021, 2021
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Numerical weather predictions combine data from satellites with atmospheric forecasts. Some satellites measure the radiance emitted by the Earth's surface. To use this data, one must have knowledge of the surface properties, like the temperature of the thin layer above the surface. Error in this temperature leads to a misuse of the satellite data and affects the quality of the weather forecast. We updated our approach to better estimate this temperature, which should help improve the forecast.
Saulo R. Freitas, Georg A. Grell, and Haiqin Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5393–5411, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5393-2021, 2021
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Convection parameterization (CP) is a component of atmospheric models aiming to represent the statistical effects of subgrid-scale convective clouds. Because the atmosphere contains circulations with a broad spectrum of scales, the truncation needed to run models in computers requires the introduction of parameterizations to account for processes that are not explicitly resolved. We detail recent developments in the Grell–Freitas CP, which has been applied in several regional and global models.
Edmund Ryan and Oliver Wild
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5373–5391, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5373-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5373-2021, 2021
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Atmospheric chemistry transport models are important tools to investigate the local, regional and global controls on atmospheric composition and air quality. In this study, we estimate some of the model parameters using machine learning and statistics. Our findings identify the level of error and spatial coverage in the O2 and CO data that are needed to achieve good parameter estimates. We also highlight the benefits of using multiple constraints to calibrate atmospheric chemistry models.
Cheng-Hsuan Lu, Quanhua Liu, Shih-Wei Wei, Benjamin T. Johnson, Cheng Dang, Patrick G. Stegmann, Dustin Grogan, Guoqing Ge, and Ming Hu
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-145, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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This article is a technical note on the aerosol absorption and scattering calculations of the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) v2.2 and v2.3. It also provides guidance for prospective users of the CRTM aerosol option and Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) aerosol-aware radiance assimilation. Scientific aspects of aerosol-affected BT in atmospheric data assimilation are also briefly discussed.
Lukas Bösiger, Michael Sprenger, Maxi Böttcher, Hanna Joos, and Tobias Günther
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-240, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-240, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Jet streams are coherent air flows that interact with atmospheric structures such as warm conveyor belts (WCBs) and the tropopause. Individually, these structures have a significant impact on the weather evolution. A first step towards a deeper understanding of the meteorological processes is to extract jet stream corelines, for which we develop a novel feature extraction algorithm. Based on the line geometry, we automatically detect and visualize potential interactions between WCBs and jets.
Antoine Berchet, Espen Sollum, Rona L. Thompson, Isabelle Pison, Joël Thanwerdas, Grégoire Broquet, Frédéric Chevallier, Tuula Aalto, Adrien Berchet, Peter Bergamaschi, Dominik Brunner, Richard Engelen, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Christoph Gerbig, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Stephan Henne, Sander Houweling, Ute Karstens, Werner L. Kutsch, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Guillaume Monteil, Paul I. Palmer, Jacob C. A. van Peet, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Elise Potier, Christian Rödenbeck, Marielle Saunois, Marko Scholze, Aki Tsuruta, and Yuanhong Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5331–5354, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5331-2021, 2021
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We present here the Community Inversion Framework (CIF) to help rationalize development efforts and leverage the strengths of individual inversion systems into a comprehensive framework. The CIF is a programming protocol to allow various inversion bricks to be exchanged among researchers.
The ensemble of bricks makes a flexible, transparent and open-source Python-based tool. We describe the main structure and functionalities and demonstrate it in a simple academic case.
Almudena García-García, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Fidel González-Rouco, and Elena García-Bustamante
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-243, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-243, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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We study the sensitivity of a regional climate model to resolution and soil scheme changes. Our results show that the use of finer resolutions mainly affects precipitation outputs, particularly in summer due to changes in convective processes. Finer resolutions are associated with larger biases in comparison with observations. Changing the LSM scheme greatly affects the simulation of near-surface temperatures, yielding the lowest biases in mean temperature with the most complex soil scheme.
Jinfang Yin, Xudong Liang, Hong Wang, and Haile Xue
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-230, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-230, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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An ensemble (EN) approach was designed to improving autoconversion (ATC) from cloud water to rainwater in cloud microphysics schemes. One unique feature of the EN approach is that the ATC rate is a mean value based on the calculations from several widely used ATC schemes. The ensemble approach proposed herein appears to be helpful for improving the representation of cloud and precipitation processes in weather and climate models.
Katrin Frieda Gehrke, Matthias Sühring, and Björn Maronga
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5307–5329, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5307-2021, 2021
James Weber, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Nathan Luke Abraham, Youngsub M. Shin, Thomas J. Bannan, Carl J. Percival, Asan Bacak, Paulo Artaxo, Michael Jenkin, M. Anwar H. Khan, Dudley E. Shallcross, Rebecca H. Schwantes, Jonathan Williams, and Alex T. Archibald
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5239–5268, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5239-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5239-2021, 2021
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The new mechanism CRI-Strat 2 features state-of-the-art isoprene chemistry not previously available in UKCA and improves UKCA's ability to reproduce observed concentrations of isoprene, monoterpenes, and OH in tropical regions. The enhanced ability to model isoprene, the most widely emitted non-methane volatile organic compound (VOC), will allow understanding of how isoprene and other biogenic VOCs affect atmospheric composition and, through biosphere–atmosphere feedbacks, climate change.
Zhiyong Wu, Leiming Zhang, John T. Walker, Paul A. Makar, Judith A. Perlinger, and Xuemei Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5093–5105, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5093-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5093-2021, 2021
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A community dry deposition algorithm for modeling the gaseous dry deposition process in chemistry transport models was extended to include an additional 12 oxidized volatile organic compounds and hydrogen cyanide based on their physicochemical properties and was then evaluated using field flux measurements over a mixed forest. This study provides a useful tool that is needed in chemistry transport models with increasing complexity for simulating an important atmospheric process.
Huan Fang, Wendell W. Walters, David Mase, and Greg Michalski
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5001–5022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5001-2021, 2021
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A new photochemical reaction scheme that incorporates nitrogen isotopes has been developed to simulate isotope tracers in air pollution. The model contains 16 N compounds, and 96 reactions involving N used in the Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism (RACM) were replicated using 15N in a new mechanism called iNRACM. The model is able to predict d15N variations in NOx, HONO, and HNO3 that are similar to those observed in aerosol and gases in the troposphere.
Christina Heinze-Deml, Sebastian Sippel, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, and Nicolai Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4977–4999, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4977-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4977-2021, 2021
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Quantifying dynamical and thermodynamical components of regional precipitation change is a key challenge in climate science. We introduce a novel statistical model (Latent Linear Adjustment Autoencoder) that combines the flexibility of deep neural networks with the robustness advantages of linear regression. The method enables estimation of the contribution of a coarse-scale atmospheric circulation proxy to daily precipitation at high resolution and in a spatially coherent manner.
Baolei Lyu, Ran Huang, Xinlu Wang, Weiguo Wang, and Yongtao Hu
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-253, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-253, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Data fusion is to estimate spatially completed and smooth reanalysis fields from multiple data sources of observations and model simulations. We developed a well-designed deep learning model framework to embed spatial correlation principles. The model has very high accuracy to predict reanalysis data fields from isolated observation data points. Besides, it is also feasible for operational applications due to computational efficiency.
Jaroslav Resler, Kryštof Eben, Jan Geletič, Pavel Krč, Martin Rosecký, Matthias Sühring, Michal Belda, Vladimír Fuka, Tomáš Halenka, Peter Huszár, Jan Karlický, Nina Benešová, Jana Ďoubalová, Kateřina Honzáková, Josef Keder, Šárka Nápravníková, and Ondřej Vlček
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4797–4842, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4797-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4797-2021, 2021
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We describe validation of the PALM model v6.0 against measurements collected during two observational campaigns in Dejvice, Prague. The study focuses on the evaluation of the newly developed or improved radiative and energy balance modules in PALM related to urban modelling. In addition to the energy-related quantities, it also evaluates air flow and air quality under street canyon conditions.
Xiaoling Liu, August L. Weinbren, He Chang, Jovan M. Tadić, Marikate E. Mountain, Michael E. Trudeau, Arlyn E. Andrews, Zichong Chen, and Scot M. Miller
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4683–4696, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4683-2021, 2021
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Observations of greenhouse gases have become far more numerous in recent years due to new satellite observations. The sheer size of these datasets makes it challenging to incorporate these data into statistical models and use these data to estimate greenhouse gas sources and sinks. In this paper, we develop an approach to reduce the size of these datasets while preserving the most information possible. We subsequently test this approach using satellite observations of carbon dioxide.
Claudio A. Belis, Guido Pirovano, Maria Gabriella Villani, Giuseppe Calori, Nicola Pepe, and Jean Philippe Putaud
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4731–4750, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4731-2021, 2021
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The study presents an in-depth analysis of the implications that using different CTM source apportionment approaches (tagged species and brute force) have for the source allocation of secondary inorganic aerosol, an important component of PM10 and PM2.5. A set of runs combining different emission levels and models was carried out, aiming to describe the situations in which strong non-linearity may lead the two approaches to deliver different results and when they are expected to be comparable.
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Short summary
Assessments of greenhouse gas emissions using atmospheric measurements and meteorological models, or
top-downmethods, are important to verify national inventories or produce a stand-alone estimate where no inventory exists. We present a novel top-down method to estimate emissions. This approach uses a fast method called an integrated nested Laplacian approximation to estimate how these emissions are correlated with other emissions in different locations and at different times.
Assessments of greenhouse gas emissions using atmospheric measurements and meteorological...
