Articles | Volume 12, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4053-2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4053-2019
Methods for assessment of models
 | 
17 Sep 2019
Methods for assessment of models |  | 17 Sep 2019

Detecting causality signal in instrumental measurements and climate model simulations: global warming case study

Mikhail Y. Verbitsky, Michael E. Mann, Byron A. Steinman, and Dmitry M. Volobuev

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Latest update: 20 Nov 2024
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Short summary
In this study, we propose an additional climate model validation procedure that assesses whether causality signals between model drivers and responses are consistent with those observed in nature. Specifically, we suggest the method of conditional dispersion as the best approach to directly measure the causality between model forcing and response. Our results show that there is a strong causal signal from the carbon dioxide series to the global temperature series.