Detecting causality signal in instrumental measurements and climate model simulations: global warming case study

Verbitsky, Mikhail Y.; Mann, Michael E.; Steinman, Byron A.; Volobuev, Dmitry M.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4053-2019

Articles | Volume 12, issue 9

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4053-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4053-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 12, issue 9

Methods for assessment of models

|

17 Sep 2019

Methods for assessment of models |

| 17 Sep 2019

Detecting causality signal in instrumental measurements and climate model simulations: global warming case study

Mikhail Y. Verbitsky, Michael E. Mann, Byron A. Steinman, and Dmitry M. Volobuev

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Final revised paper (published on 17 Sep 2019)
Preprint (discussion started on 27 Mar 2019)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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RC1: 'Review of Detecting causality signal in instrumental measurements and climate model simulations: global warming case study, by M. Y. Verbitsky et al.', Anonymous Referee #1, 19 Apr 2019
- AC1: 'Detecting causality signal in instrumental measurements and climate model simulations: global warming case study by Mikhail Verbitsky et al - Response to Reviewer 1', Mikhail Verbitsky, 21 May 2019
RC2: 'Review of Detecting causality signal in instrumental measurements and climate model simulations: global warming case study, by M. Y. Verbitsky et al.', Anonymous Referee #2, 10 May 2019
- AC2: 'Detecting causality signal in instrumental measurements and climate model simulations: global warming case study by Mikhail Verbitsky et al - Response to Reviewer 2', Mikhail Verbitsky, 21 May 2019

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

AR by Mikhail Verbitsky on behalf of the Authors (25 May 2019) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (11 Jun 2019) by Lauren Gregoire

RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (21 Jun 2019)

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (17 Jul 2019) by Lauren Gregoire

AR by Mikhail Verbitsky on behalf of the Authors (22 Jul 2019) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (23 Aug 2019) by Lauren Gregoire

AR by Mikhail Verbitsky on behalf of the Authors (23 Aug 2019) Manuscript

Short summary

In this study, we propose an additional climate model validation procedure that assesses whether causality signals between model drivers and responses are consistent with those observed in nature. Specifically, we suggest the method of conditional dispersion as the best approach to directly measure the causality between model forcing and response. Our results show that there is a strong causal signal from the carbon dioxide series to the global temperature series.