Progress towards a probabilistic Earth system model: examining the impact of stochasticity in the atmosphere and land component of EC-Earth v3.2

Strommen, Kristian; Christensen, Hannah M.; MacLeod, Dave; Juricke, Stephan; Palmer, Tim N.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3099-2019

Articles | Volume 12, issue 7

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3099-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3099-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 12, issue 7

Model evaluation paper

|

19 Jul 2019

Model evaluation paper |

| 19 Jul 2019

Progress towards a probabilistic Earth system model: examining the impact of stochasticity in the atmosphere and land component of EC-Earth v3.2

Kristian Strommen, Hannah M. Christensen, Dave MacLeod, Stephan Juricke, and Tim N. Palmer

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Final revised paper (published on 19 Jul 2019)
Preprint (discussion started on 06 Feb 2019)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'Introducing the probabilistic Earth-System Model: Examining the impact of stochasticity in EC-Earth v3.2', Anonymous Referee #1, 17 Mar 2019
- AC1: 'Response to Reviewer #1', Kristian Strommen, 20 May 2019
RC2: '"Introducing the Probabilistic Earth-System Model: Examining The Impact of Stochasticity in EC-Earth v3.2" by Strommen et al.', Anonymous Referee #2, 03 May 2019
- AC2: 'Response to Reviewer #2', Kristian Strommen, 20 May 2019

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

AR by Kristian Strommen on behalf of the Authors (20 May 2019) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (29 May 2019) by Juan Antonio Añel

RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (18 Jun 2019)

RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (22 Jun 2019)

ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (25 Jun 2019) by Juan Antonio Añel

AR by Kristian Strommen on behalf of the Authors (28 Jun 2019) Manuscript

Short summary

Due to computational limitations, climate models cannot fully resolve the laws of physics below a certain scale – a large source of errors and uncertainty. Stochastic schemes aim to account for this by randomly sampling the possible unresolved states. We develop new stochastic schemes for the EC-Earth climate model and evaluate their impact on model performance. While several benefits are found, the impact is sometimes too strong, suggesting such schemes must be carefully calibrated before use.