Weak-constraint inverse modeling using HYSPLIT-4 Lagrangian dispersion model and Cross-Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX) observations – effect of including model  uncertainties on source term estimation

Chai, Tianfeng; Stein, Ariel; Ngan, Fong

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5135-2018

Articles | Volume 11, issue 12

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5135-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5135-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 11, issue 12

Development and technical paper

|

14 Dec 2018

Development and technical paper |

| 14 Dec 2018

Weak-constraint inverse modeling using HYSPLIT-4 Lagrangian dispersion model and Cross-Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX) observations – effect of including model uncertainties on source term estimation

Tianfeng Chai, Ariel Stein, and Fong Ngan

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Final revised paper (published on 14 Dec 2018)
Preprint (discussion started on 11 Jul 2018)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

SC1: 'Executive Editor comment on gmd-2018-159', Astrid Kerkweg, 19 Jul 2018
- AC1: 'Responses to Editor comment', Tianfeng Chai, 04 Oct 2018
RC1: 'Reviewer comments', Anonymous Referee #1, 29 Aug 2018
- AC2: 'Responses to the comments of referee #1', Tianfeng Chai, 04 Oct 2018
RC2: 'referee comments', Anonymous Referee #2, 04 Sep 2018
- AC3: 'Responses to the comments of referee #2', Tianfeng Chai, 04 Oct 2018
AC4: 'Revised Manuscript (pdf file)', Tianfeng Chai, 04 Oct 2018

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

AR by Svenja Lange on behalf of the Authors (12 Oct 2018) Author's response

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (19 Oct 2018) by Slimane Bekki

RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (31 Oct 2018)

RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (19 Nov 2018)

ED: Publish as is (30 Nov 2018) by Slimane Bekki

Short summary

While model predictions depend on release parameters, model uncertainties in inverse modeling should also vary with the source terms. In this paper, model uncertainties that will change with the source terms are introduced in a weak-constraint inverse modeling system. Tests using HYSPLIT model and CAPTEX observations show that adding such model uncertainty terms improves release rate estimates. A cost function normalization scheme introduced to avoid spurious solutions proves to be effective.