Articles | Volume 10, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4307-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4307-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
29 Nov 2017
Model evaluation paper |
| 29 Nov 2017
Evaluation of integrated assessment model hindcast experiments: a case study of the GCAM 3.0 land use module
Abigail C. Snyder
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Robert P. Link
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Katherine V. Calvin
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, USA
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Cited
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation C. Wilson et al. 10.1007/s10584-021-03099-9
- A pathway of global food supply adaptation in a world with increasingly constrained groundwater S. Turner et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.070
- Accuracy indicators for evaluating retrospective performance of energy system models X. Wen et al. 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119906
- Evaluating long-term model-based scenarios of the energy system M. Binsted et al. 10.1016/j.esr.2020.100551
- Learning, economies of scale, and knowledge gap effects on power generation technology cost improvements Y. Pratama et al. 10.1016/j.isci.2024.111644
- The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: Using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model X. Zhao et al. 10.1016/j.eap.2021.07.007
- Implication of imposing fertilizer limitations on energy, agriculture, and land systems E. Sinha et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.114391
- Modeling land use and land cover change: using a hindcast to estimate economic parameters in gcamland v2.0 K. Calvin et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-429-2022
- A crop yield change emulator for use in GCAM and similar models: Persephone v1.0 A. Snyder et al. 10.5194/gmd-12-1319-2019
- Spatial Sequential Modeling and Predication of Global Land Use and Land Cover Changes by Integrating a Global Change Assessment Model and Cellular Automata M. Cao et al. 10.1029/2019EF001228
- Improving consistency among models of overlapping scope in multi-sector studies: The case of electricity capacity expansion scenarios G. Iyer et al. 10.1016/j.rser.2019.109416
- Limited impact of hydrogen co-firing on prolonging fossil-based power generation under low emissions scenarios K. Oshiro & S. Fujimori 10.1038/s41467-024-46101-5
- Delivering More from Land: A Review of Integrated Land Use Modelling for Sustainable Food Provision A. Spain Butler et al. 10.3390/su17010056
- Hindcasting to inform the development of bottom-up electricity system models: The cases of endogenous demand and technology learning X. Wen et al. 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121035
- Prediction is difficult, even when it's about the past: A hindcast experiment using Res-IRF, an integrated energy-economy model D. Glotin et al. 10.1016/j.eneco.2019.07.012
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation C. Wilson et al. 10.1007/s10584-021-03099-9
- A pathway of global food supply adaptation in a world with increasingly constrained groundwater S. Turner et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.070
- Accuracy indicators for evaluating retrospective performance of energy system models X. Wen et al. 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119906
- Evaluating long-term model-based scenarios of the energy system M. Binsted et al. 10.1016/j.esr.2020.100551
- Learning, economies of scale, and knowledge gap effects on power generation technology cost improvements Y. Pratama et al. 10.1016/j.isci.2024.111644
- The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: Using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model X. Zhao et al. 10.1016/j.eap.2021.07.007
- Implication of imposing fertilizer limitations on energy, agriculture, and land systems E. Sinha et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.114391
- Modeling land use and land cover change: using a hindcast to estimate economic parameters in gcamland v2.0 K. Calvin et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-429-2022
- A crop yield change emulator for use in GCAM and similar models: Persephone v1.0 A. Snyder et al. 10.5194/gmd-12-1319-2019
- Spatial Sequential Modeling and Predication of Global Land Use and Land Cover Changes by Integrating a Global Change Assessment Model and Cellular Automata M. Cao et al. 10.1029/2019EF001228
- Improving consistency among models of overlapping scope in multi-sector studies: The case of electricity capacity expansion scenarios G. Iyer et al. 10.1016/j.rser.2019.109416
- Limited impact of hydrogen co-firing on prolonging fossil-based power generation under low emissions scenarios K. Oshiro & S. Fujimori 10.1038/s41467-024-46101-5
- Delivering More from Land: A Review of Integrated Land Use Modelling for Sustainable Food Provision A. Spain Butler et al. 10.3390/su17010056
- Hindcasting to inform the development of bottom-up electricity system models: The cases of endogenous demand and technology learning X. Wen et al. 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121035
Latest update: 09 Oct 2025
Short summary
Experiments conducting a model forecast for a period in which observational data are available are rarely undertaken in the integrated assessment model (IAM) community. When undertaken, results are often evaluated using global aggregates that mask deficiencies. Comparing land allocation simulations in GCAM with FAO observational data from 1990 to 2010, we find quantitative evidence that global aggregates alone are not sufficient for evaluating IAMs with global supply constraints similar to GCAM.
Experiments conducting a model forecast for a period in which observational data are available...
