Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 333–358, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-333-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue: Changing Permafrost in the Arctic and its Global Effects in...
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 333–358, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-333-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Model description paper
24 Jan 2017
Model description paper
| 24 Jan 2017
Process-based modelling of the methane balance in periglacial landscapes (JSBACH-methane)
Sonja Kaiser et al.
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We present year-round methane emissions from wetlands in Northeast Siberia that were simulated with a land surface model. Ground-based flux measurements from the same area were used for evaluation of the model results, finding a best agreement with the observations in the summertime emissions that take place in this region predominantly through plants. During winter, methane emissions through the snow contribute 4 % of the total annual methane budget, but these are still underestimated.
Niek Jesse Speetjens, George Tanski, Victoria Martin, Julia Wagner, Andreas Richter, Gustaf Hugelius, Chris Boucher, Rachele Lodi, Christian Knoblauch, Boris P. Koch, Urban Wünsch, Hugues Lantuit, and Jorien E. Vonk
Biogeosciences, 19, 3073–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3073-2022, 2022
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Climate change and warming in the Arctic exceed global averages. As a result, permanently frozen soils (permafrost) which store vast quantities of carbon in the form of dead plant material (organic matter) are thawing. Our study shows that as permafrost landscapes degrade, high concentrations of organic matter are released. Partly, this organic matter is degraded rapidly upon release, while another significant fraction enters stream networks and enters the Arctic Ocean.
Peter Stimmler, Mathias Goeckede, Bo Elberling, Susan Natali, Peter Kuhry, Nia Perron, Fabrice Lacroix, Gustaf Hugelius, Oliver Sonnentag, Jens Strauss, Christina Minions, Michael Sommer, and Jörg Schaller
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-123, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-123, 2022
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Arctic soils store large amounts of carbon and nutrients. The availability of nutrients such as silicon, calcium, iron, aluminum, phosphorus and amorphous silica is crucial to understand future carbon fluxes in the Arctic. Here we provide for the first time a unique data set on the availability of those nutrients for the different soil layers including the currently frozen permafrost layer. We relate this data to several geographical and geological parameters.
Karel Castro-Morales, Anna Canning, Sophie Arzberger, Will A. Overholt, Kirsten Küsel, Olaf Kolle, Mathias Göckede, Nikita Zimov, and Arne Körtzinger
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-135, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-135, 2022
Preprint under review for BG
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Permafrost thaw releases methane. This greenhouse gas can be emitted into the atmosphere or transported by Arctic rivers. Methane measurements are lacking in large Arctic River regions. In the Kolyma River (Northeast Siberia), we measured dissolved methane to map its distribution with great spatial detail. The river’s edge and river junctions had the highest methane concentrations compared to other river areas. Microbial communities showed that the river’s methane comes from the adjacent land.
Nora Farina Specht, Martin Claussen, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 18, 1035–1046, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022, 2022
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Palaeoenvironmental records only provide a fragmentary picture of the lake and wetland extent in North Africa during the mid-Holocene. Therefore, we investigate the possible range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes caused by an estimated small and maximum lake extent and a maximum wetland extent. Results show a particularly strong monsoon precipitation response to lakes and wetlands over the Western Sahara and an increased monsoon precipitation when replacing lakes with vegetated wetlands.
Lutz Beckebanze, Benjamin Reade Kreps Runkle, Josefine Walz, Christian Wille, David Holl, Manuel Helbig, Julia Boike, Torsten Sachs, and Lars Kutzbach
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-94, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-94, 2022
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In this study, we present observations of lateral and vertical carbon fluxes from a permafrost-affected study site in the Russian Arctic. From this dataset we estimate the net ecosystem carbon balance for this study site. We show that lateral carbon export has a low impact on the net ecosystem carbon balance during the complete study period (3 months). Nevertheless, our results also show that lateral carbon export can exceed vertical carbon uptake at the beginning of the growing season.
Hanna K. Lappalainen, Tuukka Petäjä, Timo Vihma, Jouni Räisänen, Alexander Baklanov, Sergey Chalov, Igor Esau, Ekaterina Ezhova, Matti Leppäranta, Dmitry Pozdnyakov, Jukka Pumpanen, Meinrat O. Andreae, Mikhail Arshinov, Eija Asmi, Jianhui Bai, Igor Bashmachnikov, Boris Belan, Federico Bianchi, Boris Biskaborn, Michael Boy, Jaana Bäck, Bin Cheng, Natalia Chubarova, Jonathan Duplissy, Egor Dyukarev, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Martin Forsius, Martin Heimann, Sirkku Juhola, Vladimir Konovalov, Igor Konovalov, Pavel Konstantinov, Kajar Köster, Elena Lapshina, Anna Lintunen, Alexander Mahura, Risto Makkonen, Svetlana Malkhazova, Ivan Mammarella, Stefano Mammola, Stephany Buenrostro Mazon, Outi Meinander, Eugene Mikhailov, Victoria Miles, Stanislav Myslenkov, Dmitry Orlov, Jean-Daniel Paris, Roberta Pirazzini, Olga Popovicheva, Jouni Pulliainen, Kimmo Rautiainen, Torsten Sachs, Vladimir Shevchenko, Andrey Skorokhod, Andreas Stohl, Elli Suhonen, Erik S. Thomson, Marina Tsidilina, Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen, Petteri Uotila, Aki Virkkula, Nadezhda Voropay, Tobias Wolf, Sayaka Yasunaka, Jiahua Zhang, Yubao Qiu, Aijun Ding, Huadong Guo, Valery Bondur, Nikolay Kasimov, Sergej Zilitinkevich, Veli-Matti Kerminen, and Markku Kulmala
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4413–4469, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4413-2022, 2022
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We summarize results during the last 5 years in the northern Eurasian region, especially from Russia, and introduce recent observations of the air quality in the urban environments in China. Although the scientific knowledge in these regions has increased, there are still gaps in our understanding of large-scale climate–Earth surface interactions and feedbacks. This arises from limitations in research infrastructures and integrative data analyses, hindering a comprehensive system analysis.
Elodie Salmon, Fabrice Jégou, Bertrand Guenet, Line Jourdain, Chunjing Qiu, Vladislav Bastrikov, Christophe Guimbaud, Dan Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Philippe Peylin, Sébastien Gogo, Fatima Laggoun-Défarge, Mika Aurela, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Jiquan Chen, Bogdan H. Chojnicki, Housen Chu, Colin W. Edgar, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Krzysztof Fortuniak, David Holl, Janina Klatt, Olaf Kolle, Natalia Kowalska, Lars Kutzbach, Annalea Lohila, Lutz Merbold, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Torsten Sachs, and Klaudia Ziemblińska
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2813–2838, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2813-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2813-2022, 2022
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A methane model that features methane production and transport by plants, the ebullition process and diffusion in soil, oxidation to CO2, and CH4 fluxes to the atmosphere has been embedded in the ORCHIDEE-PEAT land surface model, which includes an explicit representation of northern peatlands. This model, ORCHIDEE-PCH4, was calibrated and evaluated on 14 peatland sites. Results show that the model is sensitive to temperature and substrate availability over the top 75 cm of soil depth.
Wolfgang Fischer, Christoph K. Thomas, Nikita Zimov, and Mathias Göckede
Biogeosciences, 19, 1611–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1611-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1611-2022, 2022
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Arctic permafrost ecosystems may release large amounts of carbon under warmer future climates and may therefore accelerate global climate change. Our study investigated how long-term grazing by large animals influenced ecosystem characteristics and carbon budgets at a Siberian permafrost site. Our results demonstrate that such management can contribute to stabilizing ecosystems to keep carbon in the ground, particularly through drying soils and reducing methane emissions.
Mateo Duque-Villegas, Martin Claussen, Victor Brovkin, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-26, 2022
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Using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity we quantify contributions of the Earth's orbit, greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ice sheets to the strength of Saharan greenings during late Quaternary African Humid Periods (AHPs). Orbital forcing is found as the dominant factor having a critical threshold and accounting for most of the changes in the vegetation response. However, results suggest GHGs may influence the orbital threshold and thus may play a pivotal role for future AHPs.
Lutz Beckebanze, Zoé Rehder, David Holl, Christian Wille, Charlotta Mirbach, and Lars Kutzbach
Biogeosciences, 19, 1225–1244, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1225-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1225-2022, 2022
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Arctic permafrost landscapes feature many water bodies. In contrast to the terrestrial parts of the landscape, the water bodies release carbon to the atmosphere. We compare carbon dioxide and methane fluxes from small water bodies to the surrounding tundra and find not accounting for the carbon dioxide emissions leads to an overestimation of the tundra uptake by 11 %. Consequently, changes in hydrology and water body distribution may substantially impact the overall carbon budget of the Arctic.
Martijn M. T. A. Pallandt, Jitendra Kumar, Marguerite Mauritz, Edward A. G. Schuur, Anna-Maria Virkkala, Gerardo Celis, Forrest M. Hoffman, and Mathias Göckede
Biogeosciences, 19, 559–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-559-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-559-2022, 2022
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Thawing of Arctic permafrost soils could trigger the release of vast amounts of carbon to the atmosphere, thus enhancing climate change. Our study investigated how well the current network of eddy covariance sites to monitor greenhouse gas exchange at local scales captures pan-Arctic flux patterns. We identified large coverage gaps, e.g., in Siberia, but also demonstrated that a targeted addition of relatively few sites can significantly improve network performance.
Anna-Maria Virkkala, Susan M. Natali, Brendan M. Rogers, Jennifer D. Watts, Kathleen Savage, Sara June Connon, Marguerite Mauritz, Edward A. G. Schuur, Darcy Peter, Christina Minions, Julia Nojeim, Roisin Commane, Craig A. Emmerton, Mathias Goeckede, Manuel Helbig, David Holl, Hiroki Iwata, Hideki Kobayashi, Pasi Kolari, Efrén López-Blanco, Maija E. Marushchak, Mikhail Mastepanov, Lutz Merbold, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Torsten Sachs, Oliver Sonnentag, Masahito Ueyama, Carolina Voigt, Mika Aurela, Julia Boike, Gerardo Celis, Namyi Chae, Torben R. Christensen, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Sigrid Dengel, Han Dolman, Colin W. Edgar, Bo Elberling, Eugenie Euskirchen, Achim Grelle, Juha Hatakka, Elyn Humphreys, Järvi Järveoja, Ayumi Kotani, Lars Kutzbach, Tuomas Laurila, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Yojiro Matsuura, Gesa Meyer, Mats B. Nilsson, Steven F. Oberbauer, Sang-Jong Park, Roman Petrov, Anatoly S. Prokushkin, Christopher Schulze, Vincent L. St. Louis, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Juha-Pekka Tuovinen, William Quinton, Andrej Varlagin, Donatella Zona, and Viacheslav I. Zyryanov
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 179–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-179-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-179-2022, 2022
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The effects of climate warming on carbon cycling across the Arctic–boreal zone (ABZ) remain poorly understood due to the relatively limited distribution of ABZ flux sites. Fortunately, this flux network is constantly increasing, but new measurements are published in various platforms, making it challenging to understand the ABZ carbon cycle as a whole. Here, we compiled a new database of Arctic–boreal CO2 fluxes to help facilitate large-scale assessments of the ABZ carbon cycle.
Torben Windirsch, Guido Grosse, Mathias Ulrich, Bruce C. Forbes, Mathias Göckede, Juliane Wolter, Marc Macias-Fauria, Johan Olofsson, Nikita Zimov, and Jens Strauss
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-227, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-227, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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With global warming, permafrost thaw and associated carbon release are of increasing importance. We examined how large herbivorous animals affect Arctic landscapes and how they might contribute to reduction of these emissions. We show that over a short timespan of roughly 25 years, these animals have already changed the vegetation and landscape. On pastures in a permafrost area in Siberia we found smaller thaw depth and higher carbon content than in surrounding non-pasture areas.
Kyle B. Delwiche, Sara Helen Knox, Avni Malhotra, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Gavin McNicol, Sarah Feron, Zutao Ouyang, Dario Papale, Carlo Trotta, Eleonora Canfora, You-Wei Cheah, Danielle Christianson, Ma. Carmelita R. Alberto, Pavel Alekseychik, Mika Aurela, Dennis Baldocchi, Sheel Bansal, David P. Billesbach, Gil Bohrer, Rosvel Bracho, Nina Buchmann, David I. Campbell, Gerardo Celis, Jiquan Chen, Weinan Chen, Housen Chu, Higo J. Dalmagro, Sigrid Dengel, Ankur R. Desai, Matteo Detto, Han Dolman, Elke Eichelmann, Eugenie Euskirchen, Daniela Famulari, Kathrin Fuchs, Mathias Goeckede, Sébastien Gogo, Mangaliso J. Gondwe, Jordan P. Goodrich, Pia Gottschalk, Scott L. Graham, Martin Heimann, Manuel Helbig, Carole Helfter, Kyle S. Hemes, Takashi Hirano, David Hollinger, Lukas Hörtnagl, Hiroki Iwata, Adrien Jacotot, Gerald Jurasinski, Minseok Kang, Kuno Kasak, John King, Janina Klatt, Franziska Koebsch, Ken W. Krauss, Derrick Y. F. Lai, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Luca Belelli Marchesini, Giovanni Manca, Jaclyn Hatala Matthes, Trofim Maximov, Lutz Merbold, Bhaskar Mitra, Timothy H. Morin, Eiko Nemitz, Mats B. Nilsson, Shuli Niu, Walter C. Oechel, Patricia Y. Oikawa, Keisuke Ono, Matthias Peichl, Olli Peltola, Michele L. Reba, Andrew D. Richardson, William Riley, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Youngryel Ryu, Torsten Sachs, Ayaka Sakabe, Camilo Rey Sanchez, Edward A. Schuur, Karina V. R. Schäfer, Oliver Sonnentag, Jed P. Sparks, Ellen Stuart-Haëntjens, Cove Sturtevant, Ryan C. Sullivan, Daphne J. Szutu, Jonathan E. Thom, Margaret S. Torn, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Jessica Turner, Masahito Ueyama, Alex C. Valach, Rodrigo Vargas, Andrej Varlagin, Alma Vazquez-Lule, Joseph G. Verfaillie, Timo Vesala, George L. Vourlitis, Eric J. Ward, Christian Wille, Georg Wohlfahrt, Guan Xhuan Wong, Zhen Zhang, Donatella Zona, Lisamarie Windham-Myers, Benjamin Poulter, and Robert B. Jackson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3607–3689, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3607-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3607-2021, 2021
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Methane is an important greenhouse gas, yet we lack knowledge about its global emissions and drivers. We present FLUXNET-CH4, a new global collection of methane measurements and a critical resource for the research community. We use FLUXNET-CH4 data to quantify the seasonality of methane emissions from freshwater wetlands, finding that methane seasonality varies strongly with latitude. Our new database and analysis will improve wetland model accuracy and inform greenhouse gas budgets.
Leah Birch, Christopher R. Schwalm, Sue Natali, Danica Lombardozzi, Gretchen Keppel-Aleks, Jennifer Watts, Xin Lin, Donatella Zona, Walter Oechel, Torsten Sachs, Thomas Andrew Black, and Brendan M. Rogers
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3361–3382, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3361-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3361-2021, 2021
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The high-latitude landscape or Arctic–boreal zone has been warming rapidly, impacting the carbon balance both regionally and globally. Given the possible global effects of climate change, it is important to have accurate climate model simulations. We assess the simulation of the Arctic–boreal carbon cycle in the Community Land Model (CLM 5.0). We find biases in both the timing and magnitude photosynthesis. We then use observational data to improve the simulation of the carbon cycle.
Philipp de Vrese, Tobias Stacke, Thomas Kleinen, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 15, 1097–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021, 2021
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With large amounts of carbon stored in frozen soils and a highly energy-limited vegetation the Arctic is very sensitive to changes in climate. Here our simulations with the land surface model JSBACH reveal a number of offsetting factors moderating the Arctic's net response to global warming. More importantly we find that the effects of climate change may not be fully reversible on decadal timescales, leading to substantially different CH4 emissions depending on whether the Arctic warms or cools.
Felix Nieberding, Christian Wille, Gerardo Fratini, Magnus O. Asmussen, Yuyang Wang, Yaoming Ma, and Torsten Sachs
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2705–2724, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2705-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2705-2020, 2020
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We present the first long-term eddy covariance CO2 and H2O flux measurements from the large but underrepresented alpine steppe ecosystem on the central Tibetan Plateau. We applied careful corrections and rigorous quality filtering and analyzed the turbulent flow regime to provide meaningful fluxes. This comprehensive data set allows potential users to put the gas flux dynamics into context with ecosystem properties and potential flux drivers and allows for comparisons with other data sets.
Tuukka Petäjä, Ella-Maria Duplissy, Ksenia Tabakova, Julia Schmale, Barbara Altstädter, Gerard Ancellet, Mikhail Arshinov, Yurii Balin, Urs Baltensperger, Jens Bange, Alison Beamish, Boris Belan, Antoine Berchet, Rossana Bossi, Warren R. L. Cairns, Ralf Ebinghaus, Imad El Haddad, Beatriz Ferreira-Araujo, Anna Franck, Lin Huang, Antti Hyvärinen, Angelika Humbert, Athina-Cerise Kalogridis, Pavel Konstantinov, Astrid Lampert, Matthew MacLeod, Olivier Magand, Alexander Mahura, Louis Marelle, Vladimir Masloboev, Dmitri Moisseev, Vaios Moschos, Niklas Neckel, Tatsuo Onishi, Stefan Osterwalder, Aino Ovaska, Pauli Paasonen, Mikhail Panchenko, Fidel Pankratov, Jakob B. Pernov, Andreas Platis, Olga Popovicheva, Jean-Christophe Raut, Aurélie Riandet, Torsten Sachs, Rosamaria Salvatori, Roberto Salzano, Ludwig Schröder, Martin Schön, Vladimir Shevchenko, Henrik Skov, Jeroen E. Sonke, Andrea Spolaor, Vasileios K. Stathopoulos, Mikko Strahlendorff, Jennie L. Thomas, Vito Vitale, Sterios Vratolis, Carlo Barbante, Sabine Chabrillat, Aurélien Dommergue, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Jyri Heilimo, Kathy S. Law, Andreas Massling, Steffen M. Noe, Jean-Daniel Paris, André S. H. Prévôt, Ilona Riipinen, Birgit Wehner, Zhiyong Xie, and Hanna K. Lappalainen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8551–8592, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8551-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8551-2020, 2020
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The role of polar regions is increasing in terms of megatrends such as globalization, new transport routes, demography, and the use of natural resources with consequent effects on regional and transported pollutant concentrations. Here we summarize initial results from our integrative project exploring the Arctic environment and pollution to deliver data products, metrics, and indicators for stakeholders.
Marielle Saunois, Ann R. Stavert, Ben Poulter, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Peter A. Raymond, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Sander Houweling, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Ciais, Vivek K. Arora, David Bastviken, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Kimberly M. Carlson, Mark Carrol, Simona Castaldi, Naveen Chandra, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick M. Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles L. Curry, Giuseppe Etiope, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Michaela I. Hegglin, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Gustaf Hugelius, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Katherine M. Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Paul B. Krummel, Ray L. Langenfelds, Goulven G. Laruelle, Licheng Liu, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe McNorton, Paul A. Miller, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Vaishali Naik, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Simon O'Doherty, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, Pierre Regnier, William J. Riley, Judith A. Rosentreter, Arjo Segers, Isobel J. Simpson, Hao Shi, Steven J. Smith, L. Paul Steele, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Francesco N. Tubiello, Aki Tsuruta, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Thomas S. Weber, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray F. Weiss, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Yi Yin, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Zhen Zhang, Yuanhong Zhao, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1561–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, 2020
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Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. We have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. This is the second version of the review dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down and bottom-up estimates.
Isabel Prater, Sebastian Zubrzycki, Franz Buegger, Lena C. Zoor-Füllgraff, Gerrit Angst, Michael Dannenmann, and Carsten W. Mueller
Biogeosciences, 17, 3367–3383, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3367-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3367-2020, 2020
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Large amounts of soil organic matter stored in permafrost-affected soils from Arctic Russia are present as undecomposed plant residues. This large fibrous organic matter might be highly vulnerable to microbial decay, while small mineral-associated organic matter can most probably attenuate carbon mineralization in a warmer future. Labile soil fractions also store large amounts of nitrogen, which might be lost during permafrost collapse while fostering the decomposition of soil organic matter.
Astrid Lampert, Falk Pätzold, Magnus O. Asmussen, Lennart Lobitz, Thomas Krüger, Thomas Rausch, Torsten Sachs, Christian Wille, Denis Sotomayor Zakharov, Dominik Gaus, Stephan Bansmer, and Ellen Damm
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 1937–1952, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-1937-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-1937-2020, 2020
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Methane has high climate warming potential. Sources of methane can be distinguished by the isotopic composition. To investigate the origin of methane, an airborne sampling system has been developed that can take air samples worldwide and at various altitudes. The article shows the performance of the overall system, from taking samples to laboratory analyses. As known methane source, a rewetted peatland site, was studied, and the vertical distribution of the isotopic composition is investigated.
Thomas Kleinen, Uwe Mikolajewicz, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 16, 575–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-575-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-575-2020, 2020
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We investigate the changes in natural methane emissions between the Last Glacial Maximum and preindustrial periods with a methane-enabled version of MPI-ESM. We consider all natural sources of methane except for emissions from wild animals and geological sources. Changes are dominated by changes in tropical wetland emissions, high-latitude wetlands play a secondary role, and all other natural sources are of minor importance. We explain the changes in ice core methane by methane emissions only.
Georgii A. Alexandrov, Victor A. Brovkin, Thomas Kleinen, and Zicheng Yu
Biogeosciences, 17, 47–54, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-47-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-47-2020, 2020
Altug Ekici, Hanna Lee, David M. Lawrence, Sean C. Swenson, and Catherine Prigent
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5291–5300, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5291-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5291-2019, 2019
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Ice-rich permafrost thaw can create expanding thermokarst lakes as well as shrinking large wetlands. Such processes can have major biogeochemical implications and feedbacks to climate systems by altering the pathways and rates of permafrost carbon release. We developed a new model parameterization that allows a direct representation of surface water dynamics with subsidence. Our results show increased surface water fractions around western Siberian plains and northeastern territories of Canada.
Friedemann Reum, Mathias Göckede, Jost V. Lavric, Olaf Kolle, Sergey Zimov, Nikita Zimov, Martijn Pallandt, and Martin Heimann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 5717–5740, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5717-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5717-2019, 2019
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We present continuous in situ measurements of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 mole fractions at the new station Ambarchik, located in northeastern Siberia. We describe the site, measurements and quality control, characterize the signals in comparison with data from Barrow, Alaska, and show which regions the measurements are sensitive to. Ambarchik data are available upon request.
Olli Peltola, Timo Vesala, Yao Gao, Olle Räty, Pavel Alekseychik, Mika Aurela, Bogdan Chojnicki, Ankur R. Desai, Albertus J. Dolman, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Thomas Friborg, Mathias Göckede, Manuel Helbig, Elyn Humphreys, Robert B. Jackson, Georg Jocher, Fortunat Joos, Janina Klatt, Sara H. Knox, Natalia Kowalska, Lars Kutzbach, Sebastian Lienert, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Daniel F. Nadeau, Mats B. Nilsson, Walter C. Oechel, Matthias Peichl, Thomas Pypker, William Quinton, Janne Rinne, Torsten Sachs, Mateusz Samson, Hans Peter Schmid, Oliver Sonnentag, Christian Wille, Donatella Zona, and Tuula Aalto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1263–1289, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1263-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1263-2019, 2019
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Here we develop a monthly gridded dataset of northern (> 45 N) wetland methane (CH4) emissions. The data product is derived using a random forest machine-learning technique and eddy covariance CH4 fluxes from 25 wetland sites. Annual CH4 emissions from these wetlands calculated from the derived data product are comparable to prior studies focusing on these areas. This product is an independent estimate of northern wetland CH4 emissions and hence could be used, e.g. for process model evaluation.
Mathias Göckede, Fanny Kittler, and Carsten Schaller
Biogeosciences, 16, 3113–3131, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3113-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3113-2019, 2019
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Methane is one of the most important greenhouse gases. Methane emissions from land sources to the atmosphere often occur in the form of short but intense outbursts, which are difficult to measure. We developed a new software tool based on wavelets which reliably quantifies such methane outbursts. Using these results as a reference, our study shows that regular data processing using the eddy-covariance technique provides solid long-term methane budgets, but short-term uncertainties can be high.
Karel Castro-Morales, Gregor Schürmann, Christoph Köstler, Christian Rödenbeck, Martin Heimann, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 16, 3009–3032, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3009-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3009-2019, 2019
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To obtain nearly 30 years of global terrestrial carbon fluxes, we simultaneously incorporated in a land surface model three different time periods of two observational data sets: absorbed photosynthetic active radiation and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. One decade of data is enough to improve the modeled long-term trends and seasonal amplitudes of the assimilated variables, particularly in boreal regions. This model has the potential to provide short-term predictions of land carbon fluxes.
Norman Rößger, Christian Wille, David Holl, Mathias Göckede, and Lars Kutzbach
Biogeosciences, 16, 2591–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2591-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2591-2019, 2019
Andrew M. Cunliffe, George Tanski, Boris Radosavljevic, William F. Palmer, Torsten Sachs, Hugues Lantuit, Jeffrey T. Kerby, and Isla H. Myers-Smith
The Cryosphere, 13, 1513–1528, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1513-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1513-2019, 2019
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Episodic changes of permafrost coastlines are poorly understood in the Arctic. By using drones, satellite images, and historic photos we surveyed a permafrost coastline on Qikiqtaruk – Herschel Island. We observed short-term coastline retreat of 14.5 m per year (2016–2017), exceeding long-term average rates of 2.2 m per year (1952–2017). Our study highlights the value of these tools to assess understudied episodic changes of eroding permafrost coastlines in the context of a warming Arctic.
Franziska Koebsch, Matthias Winkel, Susanne Liebner, Bo Liu, Julia Westphal, Iris Schmiedinger, Alejandro Spitzy, Matthias Gehre, Gerald Jurasinski, Stefan Köhler, Viktoria Unger, Marian Koch, Torsten Sachs, and Michael E. Böttcher
Biogeosciences, 16, 1937–1953, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1937-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1937-2019, 2019
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In natural coastal wetlands, high supplies of marine sulfate suppress methane production. We found these natural methane suppression mechanisms to be suspended by humane interference in a brackish wetland. Here, diking and freshwater rewetting had caused an efficient depletion of the sulfate reservoir and opened up favorable conditions for an intensive methane production. Our results demonstrate how human disturbance can turn coastal wetlands into distinct sources of the greenhouse gas methane.
Tim Eckhardt, Christian Knoblauch, Lars Kutzbach, David Holl, Gillian Simpson, Evgeny Abakumov, and Eva-Maria Pfeiffer
Biogeosciences, 16, 1543–1562, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1543-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1543-2019, 2019
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We quantified the contribution of individual components governing the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 and how these fluxes respond to environmental changes in a drained and water-saturated site in the polygonal tundra of northeast Siberia. This work finds both sites as a sink for atmospheric CO2 during the growing season, but sink strengths varied between the sites. Furthermore, it was shown that soil hydrological conditions were one of the key drivers for differing CO2 fluxes between the sites.
Carsten Schaller, Fanny Kittler, Thomas Foken, and Mathias Göckede
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 4041–4059, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4041-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4041-2019, 2019
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Methane emissions from biogenic sources, e.g. Arctic permafrost ecosystems, are associated with uncertainties due to the high variability of fluxes in both space and time. Besides the traditional eddy covariance method, we evaluated a method based on wavelet analysis, which does not require a stationary time series, to calculate fluxes. The occurrence of extreme methane flux events was strongly correlated with the soil temperature. They were triggered by atmospheric non-turbulent mixing.
Julia Boike, Jan Nitzbon, Katharina Anders, Mikhail Grigoriev, Dmitry Bolshiyanov, Moritz Langer, Stephan Lange, Niko Bornemann, Anne Morgenstern, Peter Schreiber, Christian Wille, Sarah Chadburn, Isabelle Gouttevin, Eleanor Burke, and Lars Kutzbach
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 261–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-261-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-261-2019, 2019
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Long-term observational data are available from the Samoylov research site in northern Siberia, where meteorological parameters, energy balance, and subsurface observations have been recorded since 1998. This paper presents the temporal data set produced between 2002 and 2017, explaining the instrumentation, calibration, processing, and data quality control. Furthermore, we present a merged dataset of the parameters, which were measured from 1998 onwards.
David Holl, Christian Wille, Torsten Sachs, Peter Schreiber, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Lutz Beckebanze, Moritz Langer, Julia Boike, Eva-Maria Pfeiffer, Irina Fedorova, Dimitry Y. Bolshianov, Mikhail N. Grigoriev, and Lars Kutzbach
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 221–240, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-221-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-221-2019, 2019
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We present a multi-annual time series of land–atmosphere carbon dioxide fluxes measured in situ with the eddy covariance technique in the Siberian Arctic. In arctic permafrost regions, climate–carbon feedbacks are amplified. Therefore, increased efforts to better represent these regions in global climate models have been made in recent years. Up to now, the available database of in situ measurements from the Arctic was biased towards Alaska and records from the Eurasian Arctic were scarce.
Friedemann Reum, Christoph Gerbig, Jost V. Lavric, Chris W. Rella, and Mathias Göckede
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 1013–1027, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-1013-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-1013-2019, 2019
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Atmospheric CO2 and CH4 mole fractions are often measured using greenhouse gas analyzers manufactured by Picarro, Inc. We report biases in these measurements that are related to pressure changes in the optical cavity of the analyzers and occur mainly at low water vapor mole fractions. We provide a method to correct the biases, which contributes to keeping the overall accuracy of CO2 and CH4 measurements with Picarro analyzers within the WMO interlaboratory compatibility goals.
Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Thomas Kleinen, Gustaf Hugelius, Christian Knoblauch, Christian Beer, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 14, 2011–2036, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2011-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2011-2018, 2018
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Past cold ice age temperatures and the subsequent warming towards the Holocene had large consequences for soil organic carbon (SOC) stored in perennially frozen grounds. Using an Earth system model we show how the spread in areas affected by permafrost have changed under deglacial warming, along with changes in SOC accumulation. Our model simulations suggest phases of circum-Arctic permafrost SOC gain and losses, with a net increase in SOC between the last glacial maximum and the pre-industrial.
Xi Wen, Viktoria Unger, Gerald Jurasinski, Franziska Koebsch, Fabian Horn, Gregor Rehder, Torsten Sachs, Dominik Zak, Gunnar Lischeid, Klaus-Holger Knorr, Michael E. Böttcher, Matthias Winkel, Paul L. E. Bodelier, and Susanne Liebner
Biogeosciences, 15, 6519–6536, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6519-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6519-2018, 2018
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Rewetting drained peatlands may lead to prolonged emission of the greenhouse gas methane, but the underlying factors are not well described. In this study, we found two rewetted fens with known high methane fluxes had a high ratio of microbial methane producers to methane consumers and a low abundance of methane consumers compared to pristine wetlands. We therefore suggest abundances of methane-cycling microbes as potential indicators for prolonged high methane emissions in rewetted peatlands.
Sophia Walther, Luis Guanter, Birgit Heim, Martin Jung, Gregory Duveiller, Aleksandra Wolanin, and Torsten Sachs
Biogeosciences, 15, 6221–6256, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6221-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6221-2018, 2018
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We explored the timing of the peak of the short annual growing season in tundra ecosystems as indicated by an extensive suite of satellite indicators of vegetation productivity. Delayed peak greenness compared to peak photosynthesis is consistently found across years and land-cover classes. Plants also experience growth after optimal conditions for assimilation regarding light and temperature have passed. Our results have implications for the modelling of the circumpolar carbon balance.
Stefano Manzoni, Petr Čapek, Philipp Porada, Martin Thurner, Mattias Winterdahl, Christian Beer, Volker Brüchert, Jan Frouz, Anke M. Herrmann, Björn D. Lindahl, Steve W. Lyon, Hana Šantrůčková, Giulia Vico, and Danielle Way
Biogeosciences, 15, 5929–5949, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5929-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5929-2018, 2018
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Carbon fixed by plants and phytoplankton through photosynthesis is ultimately stored in soils and sediments or released to the atmosphere during decomposition of dead biomass. Carbon-use efficiency is a useful metric to quantify the fate of carbon – higher efficiency means higher storage and lower release to the atmosphere. Here we summarize many definitions of carbon-use efficiency and study how this metric changes from organisms to ecosystems and from terrestrial to aquatic environments.
Josefine Walz, Christian Knoblauch, Ronja Tigges, Thomas Opel, Lutz Schirrmeister, and Eva-Maria Pfeiffer
Biogeosciences, 15, 5423–5436, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5423-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5423-2018, 2018
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We investigate potential CO2 and CH4 production in degrading ice-rich permafrost in northeastern Siberia, deposited under different climatic conditions. With laboratory incubations, it could be shown that Late Pleistocene yedoma deposits generally produced more CO2 than Holocene deposits. Thus, OM decomposability needs to be interpreted against the paleoenvironmental background. However, OM decomposability cannot be generalized solely based on the stratigraphic position.
Jörg Hartmann, Martin Gehrmann, Katrin Kohnert, Stefan Metzger, and Torsten Sachs
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 4567–4581, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-4567-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-4567-2018, 2018
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We present new in-flight calibration procedures for airborne turbulence measurements that exploit suitable regular flight legs without the need for dedicated calibration patterns. Furthermore we estimate the accuracy of the airborne wind measurement and of the turbulent fluxes of the traces gases methane and carbon dioxide.
Andrei Serafimovich, Stefan Metzger, Jörg Hartmann, Katrin Kohnert, Donatella Zona, and Torsten Sachs
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10007–10023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10007-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10007-2018, 2018
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In order to support the evaluation of coupled atmospheric–land-surface models we investigated spatial patterns of energy fluxes in relation to land-surface properties and upscaled airborne flux measurements to high resolution flux maps. A machine learning technique allows us to estimate environmental response functions between spatially and temporally resolved flux observations and corresponding biophysical and meteorological drivers.
Karel Castro-Morales, Thomas Kleinen, Sonja Kaiser, Sönke Zaehle, Fanny Kittler, Min Jung Kwon, Christian Beer, and Mathias Göckede
Biogeosciences, 15, 2691–2722, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2691-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2691-2018, 2018
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We present year-round methane emissions from wetlands in Northeast Siberia that were simulated with a land surface model. Ground-based flux measurements from the same area were used for evaluation of the model results, finding a best agreement with the observations in the summertime emissions that take place in this region predominantly through plants. During winter, methane emissions through the snow contribute 4 % of the total annual methane budget, but these are still underestimated.
Astrid Lampert, Jörg Hartmann, Falk Pätzold, Lennart Lobitz, Peter Hecker, Katrin Kohnert, Eric Larmanou, Andrei Serafimovich, and Torsten Sachs
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 2523–2536, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2523-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2523-2018, 2018
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We compared two different fast-response humidity sensors simultaneously on different airborne platforms. One is a particular, well-establed Lyman-alpha hygrometer that has been used for decades as the standard for fast airborne humidity measurements. However, it is not available any more. The other one is a hygrometer based on the absorption of infrared radiation, from LI-COR. For an environment of low vibrations, the LI-COR sensor is suitable for fast airborne water vapour measurements.
Christian Beer, Philipp Porada, Altug Ekici, and Matthias Brakebusch
The Cryosphere, 12, 741–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-741-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-741-2018, 2018
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Idealized model experiments demonstrate that, in addition to a gradual climate change, changing daily to weekly variability of meteorological variables and extreme events will also have an impact on mean annual ground temperature in high-latitude permafrost areas. In fact, results of the land surface model experiments show that the projected increase of variability of meteorological variables leads to cooler permafrost soil in contrast to an otherwise soil warming in response to climate change.
Chunjing Qiu, Dan Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Gerhard Krinner, Shushi Peng, Mika Aurela, Christian Bernhofer, Christian Brümmer, Syndonia Bret-Harte, Housen Chu, Jiquan Chen, Ankur R. Desai, Jiří Dušek, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Thomas Friborg, Mateusz Grygoruk, Sébastien Gogo, Thomas Grünwald, Birger U. Hansen, David Holl, Elyn Humphreys, Miriam Hurkuck, Gerard Kiely, Janina Klatt, Lars Kutzbach, Chloé Largeron, Fatima Laggoun-Défarge, Magnus Lund, Peter M. Lafleur, Xuefei Li, Ivan Mammarella, Lutz Merbold, Mats B. Nilsson, Janusz Olejnik, Mikaell Ottosson-Löfvenius, Walter Oechel, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Norbert Pirk, Olli Peltola, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Daniel Rasse, Janne Rinne, Gaius Shaver, Hans Peter Schmid, Matteo Sottocornola, Rainer Steinbrecher, Torsten Sachs, Marek Urbaniak, Donatella Zona, and Klaudia Ziemblinska
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 497–519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-497-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-497-2018, 2018
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Northern peatlands store large amount of soil carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We implemented peatland hydrological and carbon accumulation processes into the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The model was evaluated against EC measurements from 30 northern peatland sites. The model generally well reproduced the spatial gradient and temporal variations in GPP and NEE at these sites. Water table depth was not well predicted but had only small influence on simulated NEE.
Maarit Raivonen, Sampo Smolander, Leif Backman, Jouni Susiluoto, Tuula Aalto, Tiina Markkanen, Jarmo Mäkelä, Janne Rinne, Olli Peltola, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, Marin Tomasic, Xuefei Li, Tuula Larmola, Sari Juutinen, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Martin Heimann, Sanna Sevanto, Thomas Kleinen, Victor Brovkin, and Timo Vesala
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4665–4691, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4665-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4665-2017, 2017
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Wetlands are one of the most significant natural sources of the strong greenhouse gas methane. We developed a model that can be used within a larger wetland carbon model to simulate the methane emissions. In this study, we present the model and results of its testing. We found that the model works well with different settings and that the results depend primarily on the rate of input anoxic soil respiration and also on factors that affect the simulated oxygen concentrations in the wetland soil.
Mathias Göckede, Fanny Kittler, Min Jung Kwon, Ina Burjack, Martin Heimann, Olaf Kolle, Nikita Zimov, and Sergey Zimov
The Cryosphere, 11, 2975–2996, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2975-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2975-2017, 2017
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Shifts in hydrologic conditions will be a key factor for the sustainability of Arctic ecosystems under future climate change. Using a long-term manipulation experiment, we analyzed how energy exchange processes within a permafrost ecosystem react to sustained dry conditions. Changes in several important ecosystem characteristics lead to reduced evapotranspiration and increased sensible heat fluxes. Heat transfer into the soil was strongly reduced, keeping the permafrost colder.
Sarah E. Chadburn, Gerhard Krinner, Philipp Porada, Annett Bartsch, Christian Beer, Luca Belelli Marchesini, Julia Boike, Altug Ekici, Bo Elberling, Thomas Friborg, Gustaf Hugelius, Margareta Johansson, Peter Kuhry, Lars Kutzbach, Moritz Langer, Magnus Lund, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Shushi Peng, Ko Van Huissteden, Tao Wang, Sebastian Westermann, Dan Zhu, and Eleanor J. Burke
Biogeosciences, 14, 5143–5169, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017, 2017
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Earth system models (ESMs) are our main tools for understanding future climate. The Arctic is important for the future carbon cycle, particularly due to the large carbon stocks in permafrost. We evaluated the performance of the land component of three major ESMs at Arctic tundra sites, focusing on the fluxes and stocks of carbon.
We show that the next steps for model improvement are to better represent vegetation dynamics, to include mosses and to improve below-ground carbon cycle processes.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Ray Weiss, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
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Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
Stefan Metzger, David Durden, Cove Sturtevant, Hongyan Luo, Natchaya Pingintha-Durden, Torsten Sachs, Andrei Serafimovich, Jörg Hartmann, Jiahong Li, Ke Xu, and Ankur R. Desai
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3189–3206, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3189-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3189-2017, 2017
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We apply the
development and systems operationssoftware development model to create the eddy4R–Docker open-source, flexible, and modular eddy-covariance data processing environment. Test applications to aircraft and tower data, as well as a software cross validation demonstrate its efficiency and consistency. Key improvements in accessibility, extensibility, and reproducibility build the foundation for deploying complex scientific algorithms in an effective and scalable manner.
Eleanor J. Burke, Altug Ekici, Ye Huang, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris Huntingford, Philippe Ciais, Pierre Friedlingstein, Shushi Peng, and Gerhard Krinner
Biogeosciences, 14, 3051–3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, 2017
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There are large reserves of carbon within the permafrost which might be released to the atmosphere under global warming. Our models suggest this release may cause an additional global temperature increase of 0.005 to 0.2°C by the year 2100 and 0.01 to 0.34°C by the year 2300. Under climate mitigation scenarios this is between 1.5 and 9 % (by 2100) and between 6 and 16 % (by 2300) of the global mean temperature change. There is a large uncertainty associated with these results.
Friedemann Reum, Christoph Gerbig, Jost V. Lavric, Chris W. Rella, and Mathias Göckede
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2017-174, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2017-174, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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High-accuracy observations of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 levels, which are vital for quantifying sources and sinks of these gases, are often obtained using Picarro greenhouse gas analyzers. These require a correction for the effects of water vapor. We report biases in CO2 and CH4 levels obtained using the traditional water correction for Picarro analyzers related to pressure changes in the optical cavity and mainly affecting measurements at low water vapor mole fractions, and how to correct them.
Philipp Porada, Ulrich Pöschl, Axel Kleidon, Christian Beer, and Bettina Weber
Biogeosciences, 14, 1593–1602, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1593-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1593-2017, 2017
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Lichens and bryophytes have been shown to release nitrous oxide, which is a strong greenhouse gas and atmospheric ozone-depleting agent. Here we apply a process-based computer model of lichens and bryophytes at the global scale, to estimate growth and respiration of the organisms. By relating respiration to nitrous oxide release, we simulate global nitrous oxide emissions of 0.27 (0.19–0.35) Tg yr−1. Moreover, we quantify different sources of uncertainty in nitrous oxide emission rates.
Carsten Schaller, Mathias Göckede, and Thomas Foken
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 869–880, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-869-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-869-2017, 2017
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The eddy covariance (EC) method allows for measuring and calculating vertical turbulent exchange fluxes between ecosystems and the atmosphere. It fails in non-steady-state flow conditions, e.g. in Arctic regions. Two alternative calculation methods, conditional sampling and wavelet analysis, were implemented and compared to EC. Wavelet analysis for allows calculating a trustworthy flux even in non-stationary times and offers new possibilities for exact flux calculation in difficult environments.
Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, and Altug Ekici
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 959–975, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-959-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-959-2017, 2017
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There is a large amount of relatively inert organic carbon locked into permafrost soils. In a warming climate the permafrost will thaw and this organic carbon will become vulnerable to decomposition. This process is not typically included within Earth system models (ESMs). This paper describes the development of a vertically resolved soil organic carbon decomposition model which, in the future, can be included within the UKESM to quantify the response of the climate to permafrost carbon loss.
Mathias Hoffmann, Maximilian Schulz-Hanke, Juana Garcia Alba, Nicole Jurisch, Ulrike Hagemann, Torsten Sachs, Michael Sommer, and Jürgen Augustin
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 109–118, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-109-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-109-2017, 2017
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Processes driving production and transport of CH4 in wetlands are complex. We present an algorithm to separate open-water automatic chamber CH4 fluxes into diffusion and ebullition. This helps to reveal dynamics, identify drivers and obtain reliable CH4 emissions. The algorithm is based on sudden concentration changes during single measurements. A variable filter is applied using a multiple of the interquartile range. The algorithm was verified for data of a rewetted former fen grassland site.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
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An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Thomas Kleinen, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
Clim. Past, 12, 2145–2160, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2145-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2145-2016, 2016
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We investigate trends in atmospheric CO2 during three recent interglacials – the Holocene, the Eemian and MIS 11 – using an earth system model of intermediate complexity. Our model experiments show a considerable improvement in the modelled CO2 trends for all three interglacials if peat accumulation and shallow water CaCO3 sedimentation are included, forcing the model only with orbital and sea level changes. The Holocene CO2 trend requires anthropogenic emissions of CO2 only after 3 ka BP.
Philipp Porada, Altug Ekici, and Christian Beer
The Cryosphere, 10, 2291–2315, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2291-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2291-2016, 2016
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Bryophyte and lichen cover on the forest floor at high latitudes insulates the ground and thus decreases soil temperature. This can protect permafrost soil, stabilising it against global warming. To quantify the insulating effect, we integrate a novel, process-based model of bryophyte and lichen growth into the global land surface model JSBACH. We find an average cooling effect of the bryophyte and lichen cover of 2.7 K, which implies a significant impact on soil temperature at high latitudes.
Fanny Kittler, Ina Burjack, Chiara A. R. Corradi, Martin Heimann, Olaf Kolle, Lutz Merbold, Nikita Zimov, Sergey Zimov, and Mathias Göckede
Biogeosciences, 13, 5315–5332, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5315-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5315-2016, 2016
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We compared growing season CO2 fluxes of a wet tussock tundra ecosystem from an area affected by decadal drainage and an undisturbed area on the Kolyma floodplain in northeastern Siberia. The results show systematically reduced CO2 uptake within the drained area, caused by increased respiration, and that the local permafrost ecosystem is capable of adapting to significantly different hydrologic conditions without losing its capacity to act as a net sink for CO2.
Christian Beer, Philipp Porada, Altug Ekici, and Matthias Brakebusch
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-210, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-210, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
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Models suggest thawing permafrost in future due to climate change. In addition to warming, day-to-day variability of air temperature and precipitation is projected to increase. In an idealized theoretical model experiment we show that such changing short-term variability will reduce soil warming as a consequence of air warming by up to 1 K due to effects on snow and moss insulating layers. This shows the need of a mechanistic representation of such layers in Earth system models.
Min Jung Kwon, Martin Heimann, Olaf Kolle, Kristina A. Luus, Edward A. G. Schuur, Nikita Zimov, Sergey A. Zimov, and Mathias Göckede
Biogeosciences, 13, 4219–4235, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4219-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4219-2016, 2016
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A decade-long drainage on an Arctic floodplain has altered dominant plant species and soil temperature regimes. Consequently, CO2 exchange rates between the atmosphere and the terrestrial ecosystem were modified: CO2 uptake rates by the terrestrial ecosystem decreased and CO2 emission rates to the atmosphere increased. Ongoing global warming may thaw ice-rich permafrost and make some regions drier in the Arctic, and this will reduce carbon accumulation in the terrestrial ecosystem.
Stefan Hagemann, Tanja Blome, Altug Ekici, and Christian Beer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 611–625, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-611-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-611-2016, 2016
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The present study analyses how cold-region physical soil processes, especially freezing of soil water, impact large-scale hydrology and climate over Northern Hemisphere high-latitude land areas. For this analysis, an atmosphere–land global climate model was used. It is shown that including these processes in the model leads to improved discharge in spring and a positive land–atmosphere feedback to precipitation over the high latitudes that has previously not been noted for the high latitudes.
Daniela Franz, Franziska Koebsch, Eric Larmanou, Jürgen Augustin, and Torsten Sachs
Biogeosciences, 13, 3051–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3051-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3051-2016, 2016
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Based on the eddy covariance method we investigate the ecosystem–atmosphere exchange of CH4 and CO2 at a eutrophic shallow lake as a challenging ecosystem often evolving during peatland rewetting. Both open water and emergent vegetation are net emitters of CH4 and CO2, but with strikingly different release rates. Even after 9 years of rewetting the lake ecosystem exhibits a considerable carbon loss and global warming impact, the latter mainly driven by high CH4 emissions from the open waterbody.
Fabio Cresto Aleina, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Tim Brücher, Thomas Kleinen, and Victor Brovkin
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 915–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-915-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-915-2016, 2016
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This study presents the hotspot parameterization, a novel approach to upscaling methane emissions in a boreal peatland from the micro-topographic scale to the landscape scale. We based this new parameterization on the analysis of water table patterns generated by the Hummock–Hollow (HH) model. We show how the hotspot parameterization successfully upscales the micro-topographic controls on methane emissions for both present-day conditions and for the next century under three different scenarios.
K. Castro-Morales, R. Ricker, and R. Gerdes
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-5681-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-5681-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The snow cover on Arctic sea ice is subject to vast changes due to a warming climate. In this study, we assess last decade changes of Arctic snow depth (SD) on sea-ice simulated by an Arctic general circulation model. North of 76 N, the model SD is on average 3 cm thicker than radar SD measurements. In the last decade, the mean regional SD decreased 21 % mainly in first-year ice areas. Surface snow sublimation and melt are the dominant processes responsible of this decline.
F. Cresto Aleina, B. R. K. Runkle, T. Kleinen, L. Kutzbach, J. Schneider, and V. Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 12, 5689–5704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5689-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5689-2015, 2015
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We developed a process-based model for peatland micro-topography and hydrology, the Hummock-Hollow (HH) model, which explicitly represents small-scale surface elevation changes. By coupling the HH model with a model for soil methane processes, we are able to model the effects of micro-topography on hydrology and methane emissions in a typical boreal peatland. We also identify potential biases that models without a micro-topographic representation can introduce in large-scale models.
M. Hoffmann, M. Schulz-Hanke, J. Garcia Alba, N. Jurisch, U. Hagemann, T. Sachs, M. Sommer, and J. Augustin
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-12923-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-12923-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Processes driving the production, transformation and transport of CH4 in wetlands are highly complex. Thus, serious challenges are constitutes in terms of process understanding, potential drivers and the calculation of reliable CH4 emission estimates. We present a simple calculation algorithm to separate CH4 fluxes measured with closed chambers into diffusion- and ebullition-derived components, which helps facilitating the identification of underlying dynamics and potential drivers.
A. Ekici, S. Chadburn, N. Chaudhary, L. H. Hajdu, A. Marmy, S. Peng, J. Boike, E. Burke, A. D. Friend, C. Hauck, G. Krinner, M. Langer, P. A. Miller, and C. Beer
The Cryosphere, 9, 1343–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1343-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1343-2015, 2015
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This paper compares the performance of different land models in estimating soil thermal regimes at distinct cold region landscape types. Comparing models with different processes reveal the importance of surface insulation (snow/moss layer) and soil internal processes (heat/water transfer). The importance of model processes also depend on site conditions such as high/low snow cover, dry/wet soil types.
T. J. Bohn, J. R. Melton, A. Ito, T. Kleinen, R. Spahni, B. D. Stocker, B. Zhang, X. Zhu, R. Schroeder, M. V. Glagolev, S. Maksyutov, V. Brovkin, G. Chen, S. N. Denisov, A. V. Eliseev, A. Gallego-Sala, K. C. McDonald, M.A. Rawlins, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, Q. Zhuang, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 12, 3321–3349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, 2015
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We evaluated 21 forward models and 5 inversions over western Siberia in terms of CH4 emissions and simulated wetland areas and compared these results to an intensive in situ CH4 flux data set, several wetland maps, and two satellite inundation products. In addition to assembling a definitive collection of methane emissions estimates for the region, we were able to identify the types of wetland maps and model features necessary for accurate simulations of high-latitude wetlands.
G. Hugelius, J. Strauss, S. Zubrzycki, J. W. Harden, E. A. G. Schuur, C.-L. Ping, L. Schirrmeister, G. Grosse, G. J. Michaelson, C. D. Koven, J. A. O'Donnell, B. Elberling, U. Mishra, P. Camill, Z. Yu, J. Palmtag, and P. Kuhry
Biogeosciences, 11, 6573–6593, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6573-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6573-2014, 2014
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This study provides an updated estimate of organic carbon stored in the northern permafrost region. The study includes estimates for carbon in soils (0 to 3 m depth) and deeper sediments in river deltas and the Yedoma region. We find that field data is still scarce from many regions. Total estimated carbon storage is ~1300 Pg with an uncertainty range of between 1100 and 1500 Pg. Around 800 Pg carbon is perennially frozen, equivalent to all carbon dioxide currently in the Earth's atmosphere.
H. N. Mbufong, M. Lund, M. Aurela, T. R. Christensen, W. Eugster, T. Friborg, B. U. Hansen, E. R. Humphreys, M. Jackowicz-Korczynski, L. Kutzbach, P. M. Lafleur, W. C. Oechel, F. J. W. Parmentier, D. P. Rasse, A. V. Rocha, T. Sachs, M. K. van der Molen, and M. P. Tamstorf
Biogeosciences, 11, 4897–4912, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4897-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4897-2014, 2014
S. Zubrzycki, L. Kutzbach, and E.-M. Pfeiffer
Solid Earth, 5, 595–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-595-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-595-2014, 2014
A. Ekici, C. Beer, S. Hagemann, J. Boike, M. Langer, and C. Hauck
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 631–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-631-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-631-2014, 2014
J. D. Watts, J. S. Kimball, F. J. W. Parmentier, T. Sachs, J. Rinne, D. Zona, W. Oechel, T. Tagesson, M. Jackowicz-Korczyński, and M. Aurela
Biogeosciences, 11, 1961–1980, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1961-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1961-2014, 2014
I. Antcibor, A. Eschenbach, S. Zubrzycki, L. Kutzbach, D. Bolshiyanov, and E.-M. Pfeiffer
Biogeosciences, 11, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1-2014, 2014
S. Dengel, D. Zona, T. Sachs, M. Aurela, M. Jammet, F. J. W. Parmentier, W. Oechel, and T. Vesala
Biogeosciences, 10, 8185–8200, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8185-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8185-2013, 2013
S. Zubrzycki, L. Kutzbach, G. Grosse, A. Desyatkin, and E.-M. Pfeiffer
Biogeosciences, 10, 3507–3524, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3507-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3507-2013, 2013
R. Wania, J. R. Melton, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, P. O. Hopcroft, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, J. S. Singarayer, S. Zürcher, D. P. Lettenmaier, D. J. Beerling, S. N. Denisov, C. Prigent, F. Papa, and J. O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 617–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, 2013
I. Preuss, C. Knoblauch, J. Gebert, and E.-M. Pfeiffer
Biogeosciences, 10, 2539–2552, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2539-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2539-2013, 2013
K. Castro-Morales, N. Cassar, D. R. Shoosmith, and J. Kaiser
Biogeosciences, 10, 2273–2291, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2273-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2273-2013, 2013
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
B. R. K. Runkle, T. Sachs, C. Wille, E.-M. Pfeiffer, and L. Kutzbach
Biogeosciences, 10, 1337–1349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1337-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1337-2013, 2013
J. R. Melton, R. Wania, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, D. J. Beerling, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, S. N. Denisov, P. O. Hopcroft, D. P. Lettenmaier, W. J. Riley, J. S. Singarayer, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, S. Zürcher, V. Brovkin, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 10, 753–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, 2013
T. Krings, K. Gerilowski, M. Buchwitz, J. Hartmann, T. Sachs, J. Erzinger, J. P. Burrows, and H. Bovensmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 151–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-151-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-151-2013, 2013
Related subject area
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Using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework to calibrate the runoff-generation scheme in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v1
Description and evaluation of the tropospheric aerosol scheme in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS-AER, cycle 47R1) of ECMWF
Tree migration in the dynamic, global vegetation model LPJ-GM 1.1: efficient uncertainty assessment and improved dispersal kernels of European trees
An online ensemble coupled data assimilation capability for the Community Earth System Model: system design and evaluation
loopUI-0.1: indicators to support needs and practices in 3D geological modelling uncertainty quantification
Transient climate simulations of the Holocene (version 1) – experimental design and boundary conditions
Ocean biogeochemistry in the Canadian Earth System Model version 5.0.3: CanESM5 and CanESM5-CanOE
Climate projections over the Great Lakes Region: using two-way coupling of a regional climate model with a 3-D lake model
Formulation of a new explicit tidal scheme in revised LICOM2.0
Evaluation of WRF-Chem model (v3.9.1.1) real-time air quality forecasts over the Eastern Mediterranean
Simulation, precursor analysis and targeted observation sensitive area identification for two types of ENSO using ENSO-MC v1.0
Stable climate simulations using a realistic general circulation model with neural network parameterizations for atmospheric moist physics and radiation processes
Description of historical and future projection simulations by the global coupled E3SMv1.0 model as used in CMIP6
Training a supermodel with noisy and sparse observations: a case study with CPT and the synch rule on SPEEDO – v.1
GREB-ISM v1.0: A coupled ice sheet model for the Globally Resolved Energy Balance model for global simulations on timescales of 100 kyr
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Empirical values and assumptions in the convection schemes of numerical models
Precipitation over southern Africa: is there consensus among global climate models (GCMs), regional climate models (RCMs) and observational data?
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Assessment of the sea surface temperature diurnal cycle in CNRM-CM6-1 based on its 1D coupled configuration
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Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (v2020a) in vegetated areas: parameter derivation and performance evaluation using FLUXNET2015 dataset
The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6
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Added value of EURO-CORDEX high-resolution downscaling over the Iberian Peninsula revisited – Part 1: Precipitation
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Analysing the PMIP4-CMIP6 collection: a workflow and tool (pmip_p2fvar_analyzer v1)
Impacts of a revised surface roughness parameterization in the Community Land Model 5.1
Novel coupled permafrost–forest model (LAVESI–CryoGrid v1.0) revealing the interplay between permafrost, vegetation, and climate across eastern Siberia
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The effects of ocean surface waves on global intraseasonal prediction: case studies with a coupled CFSv2.0–WW3 system
Earth system model parameter adjustment using a Green's functions approach
Effects of forcing differences and initial conditions on inter-model agreement in the VolMIP volc-pinatubo-full experiment
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Donghui Xu, Gautam Bisht, Khachik Sargsyan, Chang Liao, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5021–5043, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5021-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5021-2022, 2022
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The runoff outputs in Earth system model simulations involve high uncertainty, which needs to be constrained by parameter calibration. In this work, we used a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework to efficiently calibrate the runoff-generation processes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model v1 at a global scale. The model performance was improved compared to the default parameter after calibration, and the associated parametric uncertainty was significantly constrained.
Samuel Rémy, Zak Kipling, Vincent Huijnen, Johannes Flemming, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Melanie Ades, Richard Engelen, and Vincent-Henri Peuch
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4881–4912, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4881-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4881-2022, 2022
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This article describes a new version of IFS-AER, the tropospheric aerosol scheme used to provide global aerosol products within the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) cycle. Several components of the model have been updated, such as the dynamical dust and sea salt aerosol emission schemes. New deposition schemes have also been incorporated but are not yet used operationally. This new version of IFS-AER has been evaluated and shown to have a greater skill than previous versions.
Deborah Zani, Veiko Lehsten, and Heike Lischke
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4913–4940, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4913-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4913-2022, 2022
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The prediction of species migration under rapid climate change remains uncertain. In this paper, we evaluate the importance of the mechanisms underlying plant migration and increase the performance in the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GM 1.0. The improved model will allow us to understand past vegetation dynamics and predict the future redistribution of species in a context of global change.
Jingzhe Sun, Yingjing Jiang, Shaoqing Zhang, Weimin Zhang, Lv Lu, Guangliang Liu, Yuhu Chen, Xiang Xing, Xiaopei Lin, and Lixin Wu
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4805–4830, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4805-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4805-2022, 2022
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An online ensemble coupled data assimilation system with the Community Earth System Model is designed and evaluated. This system uses the memory-based information transfer approach which avoids frequent I/O operations. The observations of surface pressure, sea surface temperature, and in situ temperature and salinity profiles can be effectively assimilated into the coupled model. That will facilitate a long-term high-resolution climate reanalysis once the algorithm efficiency is much improved.
Guillaume Pirot, Ranee Joshi, Jérémie Giraud, Mark Douglas Lindsay, and Mark Walter Jessell
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4689–4708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4689-2022, 2022
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Results of a survey launched among practitioners in the mineral industry show that despite recognising the importance of uncertainty quantification it is not very well performed due to lack of data, time requirements, poor tracking of interpretations and relative complexity of uncertainty quantification. To alleviate the latter, we provide an open-source set of local and global indicators to measure geological uncertainty among an ensemble of geological models.
Zhiping Tian, Dabang Jiang, Ran Zhang, and Baohuang Su
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4469–4487, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4469-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4469-2022, 2022
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We present an experimental design for a new set of transient experiments for the Holocene from 11.5 ka to the preindustrial period (1850) with a relatively high-resolution Earth system model. Model boundary conditions include time-varying full and single forcing of orbital parameters, greenhouse gases, and ice sheets. The simulations will help to study the mean climate trend and abrupt climate changes through the Holocene in response to both full and single external forcings.
James R. Christian, Kenneth L. Denman, Hakase Hayashida, Amber M. Holdsworth, Warren G. Lee, Olivier G. J. Riche, Andrew E. Shao, Nadja Steiner, and Neil C. Swart
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4393–4424, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4393-2022, 2022
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The ocean chemistry and biology modules of the latest version of the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM5) are described in detail and evaluated against observations and other Earth system models. In the basic CanESM5 model, ocean biogeochemistry is similar to CanESM2 but embedded in a new ocean circulation model. In addition, an entirely new model, the Canadian Ocean Ecosystem model (CanESM5-CanOE), was developed. The most significant difference is that CanOE explicitly includes iron.
Pengfei Xue, Xinyu Ye, Jeremy S. Pal, Philip Y. Chu, Miraj B. Kayastha, and Chenfu Huang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4425–4446, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4425-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4425-2022, 2022
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The Great Lakes are the world's largest freshwater system. They are a key element in regional climate influencing local weather patterns and climate processes. Many of these complex processes are regulated by interactions of the atmosphere, lake, ice, and surrounding land areas. This study presents a Great Lakes climate change projection that employed the two-way coupling of a regional climate model with a 3-D lake model (GLARM) to resolve 3-D hydrodynamics essential for large lakes.
Jiangbo Jin, Run Guo, Minghua Zhang, Guangqing Zhou, and Qingcun Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4259–4273, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4259-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4259-2022, 2022
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In this paper, the inclusion of tides in a global model via the explicit calculation of the tide-generating force based on the positions of the sun and moon is proposed, rather than the traditional method of including about eight tidal constituents with empirical amplitudes and frequencies. The new scheme can better simulate the diurnal and spatial characteristics of the tidal potential of spring and neap tides as well as the spatial patterns and magnitudes of major tidal constituents.
George K. Georgiou, Theodoros Christoudias, Yiannis Proestos, Jonilda Kushta, Michael Pikridas, Jean Sciare, Chrysanthos Savvides, and Jos Lelieveld
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4129–4146, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4129-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4129-2022, 2022
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We evaluate the skill of the WRF-Chem model to perform high-resolution air quality forecasts (including ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and fine particulate matter) over the Eastern Mediterranean, during winter and summer. We compare the forecast output to observational data from background and urban locations and the forecast output from CAMS. WRF-Chem was found to forecast the concentrations and diurnal profiles of gas-phase pollutants in urban areas with higher accuracy.
Bin Mu, Yuehan Cui, Shijin Yuan, and Bo Qin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4105–4127, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4105-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4105-2022, 2022
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An ENSO deep learning forecast model (ENSO-MC) is built to simulate the spatial evolution of sea surface temperature, analyse the precursor and identify the sensitive area. The results reveal the pronounced subsurface features before different types of events and indicate that oceanic thermal anomaly in the central and western Pacific provides a key long-term memory for predictions, demonstrating the potential usage of the ENSO-MC model in simulation, understanding and observations of ENSO.
Xin Wang, Yilun Han, Wei Xue, Guangwen Yang, and Guang J. Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3923–3940, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3923-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3923-2022, 2022
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This study uses a set of deep neural networks to learn a parameterization scheme from a superparameterized general circulation model (GCM). After being embedded in a realistically configurated GCM, the parameterization scheme performs stably in long-term climate simulations and reproduces reasonable climatology and climate variability. This success is the first for long-term stable climate simulations using machine learning parameterization under real geographical boundary conditions.
Xue Zheng, Qing Li, Tian Zhou, Qi Tang, Luke P. Van Roekel, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Hailong Wang, and Philip Cameron-Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3941–3967, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3941-2022, 2022
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We document the model experiments for the future climate projection by E3SMv1.0. At the highest future emission scenario, E3SMv1.0 projects a strong surface warming with rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land runoff. Specifically, we detect a significant polar amplification and accelerated warming linked to the unmasking of the aerosol effects. The impact of greenhouse gas forcing is examined in different climate components.
Francine Schevenhoven and Alberto Carrassi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3831–3844, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3831-2022, 2022
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In this study, we present a novel formulation to build a dynamical combination of models, the so-called supermodel, which needs to be trained based on data. Previously, we assumed complete and noise-free observations. Here, we move towards a realistic scenario and develop adaptations to the training methods in order to cope with sparse and noisy observations. The results are very promising and shed light on how to apply the method with state of the art general circulation models.
Zhiang Xie, Dietmar Dommenget, Felicity S. McCormack, and Andrew N. Mackintosh
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3691–3719, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3691-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3691-2022, 2022
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Paleoclimate research requires better numerical model tools to explore interactions among the cryosphere, atmosphere, ocean and land surface. To explore those interactions, this study offers a tool, the GREB-ISM, which can be run for 2 million model years within 1 month on a personal computer. A series of experiments show that the GREB-ISM is able to reproduce the modern ice sheet distribution as well as classic climate oscillation features under paleoclimate conditions.
Yannic Fischler, Martin Rückamp, Christian Bischof, Vadym Aizinger, Mathieu Morlighem, and Angelika Humbert
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3753–3771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3753-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3753-2022, 2022
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Ice sheet models are used to simulate the changes of ice sheets in future but are currently often run in coarse resolution and/or with neglecting important physics to make them affordable in terms of computational costs. We conducted a study simulating the Greenland Ice Sheet in high resolution and adequate physics to test where the ISSM ice sheet code is using most time and what could be done to improve its performance for future computer architectures that allow massive parallel computing.
Sophy Oliver, Coralia Cartis, Iris Kriest, Simon F. B Tett, and Samar Khatiwala
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3537–3554, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3537-2022, 2022
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Global ocean biogeochemical models are used within Earth system models which are used to predict future climate change. However, these are very computationally expensive to run and therefore are rarely routinely improved or calibrated to real oceanic observations. Here we apply a new, fast optimisation algorithm to one such model and show that it can calibrate the model much faster than previously managed, therefore encouraging further ocean biogeochemical model improvements.
Anahí Villalba-Pradas and Francisco J. Tapiador
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3447–3518, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3447-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3447-2022, 2022
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The paper provides a comprehensive review of the empirical values and assumptions used in the convection schemes of numerical models. The focus is on the values and assumptions used in the activation of convection (trigger), the transport and microphysics (commonly referred to as the cloud model), and the intensity of convection (closure). Such information can assist satellite missions focused on elucidating convective processes and the evaluation of model output uncertainties.
Maria Chara Karypidou, Eleni Katragkou, and Stefan Pieter Sobolowski
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3387–3404, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3387-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3387-2022, 2022
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The region of southern Africa (SAF) is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and is projected to experience severe precipitation shortages in the coming decades. Reliable climatic information is therefore necessary for the optimal adaptation of local communities. In this work we show that regional climate models are reliable tools for the simulation of precipitation over southern Africa. However, there is still a great need for the expansion and maintenance of observational data.
Stipo Sentić, Peter Bechtold, Željka Fuchs-Stone, Mark Rodwell, and David J. Raymond
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3371–3385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3371-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3371-2022, 2022
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The Organization of Tropical East Pacific Convection (OTREC) field campaign focuses on studying convection in the eastern Pacific and Caribbean. Observations obtained from dropsondes have been assimilated into the ECMWF model and compared to a model run in which sondes have not been assimilated. The model performs well in both simulations, but the assimilation of sondes helps to reduce the departure for pre-tropical-storm conditions. Variables important to studying convection are also studied.
Aurore Voldoire, Romain Roehrig, Hervé Giordani, Robin Waldman, Yunyan Zhang, Shaocheng Xie, and Marie-Nöelle Bouin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3347–3370, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3347-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3347-2022, 2022
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A single-column version of the global climate model CNRM-CM6-1 has been designed to ease development and validation of the model physics at the air–sea interface in a simplified environment. This model is then used to assess the ability to represent the sea surface temperature diurnal cycle. We conclude that the sea surface temperature diurnal variability is reasonably well represented in CNRM-CM6-1 with a 1 h coupling time step and the upper-ocean model resolution of 1 m.
Hui Wan, Kai Zhang, Philip J. Rasch, Vincent E. Larson, Xubin Zeng, Shixuan Zhang, and Ross Dixon
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3205–3231, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3205-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3205-2022, 2022
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This paper describes a tool embedded in a global climate model for sampling atmospheric conditions and monitoring physical processes as a numerical simulation is being carried out. The tool facilitates process-level model evaluation by allowing the users to select a wide range of quantities and processes to monitor at run time without having to do tedious ad hoc coding.
Milena Veneziani, Wieslaw Maslowski, Younjoo J. Lee, Gennaro D'Angelo, Robert Osinski, Mark R. Petersen, Wilbert Weijer, Anthony P. Craig, John D. Wolfe, Darin Comeau, and Adrian K. Turner
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3133–3160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3133-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3133-2022, 2022
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We present an Earth system model (ESM) simulation, E3SM-Arctic-OSI, with a refined grid to better resolve the Arctic ocean and sea-ice system and low spatial resolution elsewhere. The configuration satisfactorily represents many aspects of the Arctic system and its interactions with the sub-Arctic, while keeping computational costs at a fraction of those necessary for global high-resolution ESMs. E3SM-Arctic can thus be an efficient tool to study Arctic processes on climate-relevant timescales.
Hamidreza Omidvar, Ting Sun, Sue Grimmond, Dave Bilesbach, Andrew Black, Jiquan Chen, Zexia Duan, Zhiqiu Gao, Hiroki Iwata, and Joseph P. McFadden
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3041–3078, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3041-2022, 2022
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This paper extends the applicability of the SUEWS to extensive pervious areas outside cities. We derived various parameters such as leaf area index, albedo, roughness parameters and surface conductance for non-urban areas. The relation between LAI and albedo is also explored. The methods and parameters discussed can be used for both online and offline simulations. Using appropriate parameters related to non-urban areas is essential for assessing urban–rural differences.
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022
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The Earth system model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
Hengqi Wang, Yiran Peng, Knut von Salzen, Yan Yang, Wei Zhou, and Delong Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2949–2971, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2949-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2949-2022, 2022
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The aerosol activation scheme is an important part of the general circulation model, but evaluations using observed data are mostly regional. This research introduced a numerically efficient aerosol activation scheme and evaluated it by using stratus and stratocumulus cloud data sampled during multiple aircraft campaigns in Canada, Chile, Brazil, and China. The decent performance indicates that the scheme is suitable for simulations of cloud droplet number concentrations over wide conditions.
Po-Lun Ma, Bryce E. Harrop, Vincent E. Larson, Richard B. Neale, Andrew Gettelman, Hugh Morrison, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, Stephen A. Klein, Mark D. Zelinka, Yuying Zhang, Yun Qian, Jin-Ho Yoon, Christopher R. Jones, Meng Huang, Sheng-Lun Tai, Balwinder Singh, Peter A. Bogenschutz, Xue Zheng, Wuyin Lin, Johannes Quaas, Hélène Chepfer, Michael A. Brunke, Xubin Zeng, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Samson Hagos, Zhibo Zhang, Hua Song, Xiaohong Liu, Michael S. Pritchard, Hui Wan, Jingyu Wang, Qi Tang, Peter M. Caldwell, Jiwen Fan, Larry K. Berg, Jerome D. Fast, Mark A. Taylor, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Shaocheng Xie, Philip J. Rasch, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2881–2916, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2881-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2881-2022, 2022
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An alternative set of parameters for E3SM Atmospheric Model version 1 has been developed based on a tuning strategy that focuses on clouds. When clouds in every regime are improved, other aspects of the model are also improved, even though they are not the direct targets for calibration. The recalibrated model shows a lower sensitivity to anthropogenic aerosols and surface warming, suggesting potential improvements to the simulated climate in the past and future.
Jewgenij Torizin, Nick Schüßler, and Michael Fuchs
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2791–2812, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2791-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2791-2022, 2022
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With LSAT PM we introduce an open-source, stand-alone, easy-to-use application that supports scientific principles of openness, knowledge integrity, and replicability. Doing so, we want to share our experience in the implementation of heuristic and data-driven landslide susceptibility assessment methods such as analytic hierarchy process, weights of evidence, logistic regression, and artificial neural networks. A test dataset is available.
João António Martins Careto, Pedro Miguel Matos Soares, Rita Margarida Cardoso, Sixto Herrera, and José Manuel Gutiérrez
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2635–2652, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2635-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2635-2022, 2022
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This work focuses on the added value of high-resolution models relative to their forcing simulations, with a recent observational gridded dataset as a reference, covering the entire Iberian Peninsula. The availability of such datasets with a spatial resolution close to that of regional climate models encouraged this study. For precipitation, most models reveal added value. The gains are even more evident for precipitation extremes, particularly at a more local scale.
João António Martins Careto, Pedro Miguel Matos Soares, Rita Margarida Cardoso, Sixto Herrera, and José Manuel Gutiérrez
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2653–2671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2653-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2653-2022, 2022
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This work focuses on the added value of high-resolution models relative to their forcing simulations, with an observational gridded dataset as a reference covering the Iberian Peninsula. The availability of such datasets with a spatial resolution close to that of regional models encouraged this study. For the max and min temperature, although most models reveal added value, some display losses. At more local scales, coastal sites display important gains, contrasting with the interior.
Guillaume Marie, B. Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Cecile Dardel, Thuy Le Toan, Alexandre Bouvet, Stéphane Mermoz, Ludovic Villard, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Philippe Peylin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2599–2617, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2599-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2599-2022, 2022
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Most Earth system models make use of vegetation maps to initialize a simulation at global scale. Satellite-based biomass map estimates for Africa were used to estimate cover fractions for the 15 land cover classes. This study successfully demonstrates that satellite-based biomass maps can be used to better constrain vegetation maps. Applying this approach at the global scale would increase confidence in assessments of present-day biomass stocks.
Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Zhiyi Jiang, Rachel Eyles, Damián Oyarzún, and Jose Gomez-Dans
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2475–2488, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2475-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2475-2022, 2022
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We describe the way that our group have chosen to perform our recent analyses of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project ensemble simulations. We document the approach used to obtain and curate the simulations, process those outputs via the Climate Variability Diagnostics Package, and then continue through to compute ensemble-wide statistics and create figures. We also provide interim data from all steps, the codes used and the ability for users to perform their own analyses.
Ronny Meier, Edouard L. Davin, Gordon B. Bonan, David M. Lawrence, Xiaolong Hu, Gregory Duveiller, Catherine Prigent, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2365–2393, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2365-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2365-2022, 2022
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We revise the roughness of the land surface in the CESM climate model. Guided by observational data, we increase the surface roughness of forests and decrease that of bare soil, snow, ice, and crops. These modifications alter simulated temperatures and wind speeds at and above the land surface considerably, in particular over desert regions. The revised model represents the diurnal variability of the land surface temperature better compared to satellite observations over most regions.
Stefan Kruse, Simone M. Stuenzi, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, Josias Gloy, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2395–2422, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2395-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2395-2022, 2022
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We coupled established models for boreal forest (LAVESI) and permafrost dynamics (CryoGrid) in Siberia to investigate interactions of the diverse vegetation layer with permafrost soils. Our tests showed improved active layer depth estimations and newly included species growth according to their species-specific limits. We conclude that the new model system can be applied to simulate boreal forest dynamics and transitions under global warming and disturbances, expanding our knowledge.
Lingcheng Li, Gautam Bisht, and Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-4, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-4, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Land surface heterogeneity plays a critical role in the terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. Our study systematically quantified the effects of four dominant heterogeneity sources on water and energy partitioning. We found that atmospheric forcing and land use land cover are the most dominant heterogeneity sources in determining spatial variability of water and energy partitioning. Our findings can help prioritize the future development of land surface models.
Ruizi Shi, Fanghua Xu, Li Liu, Zheng Fan, Hao Yu, Hong Li, Xiang Li, and Yunfei Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2345–2363, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2345-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2345-2022, 2022
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To better understand the effects of surface waves on global intraseasonal prediction, we incorporated the WW3 model into CFSv2.0. Processes of Langmuir mixing, Stokes–Coriolis force with entrainment, air–sea fluxes modified by Stokes drift, and momentum roughness length were considered. Results from two groups of 56 d experiments show that overestimated sea surface temperature, 2 m air temperature, 10 m wind, wave height, and underestimated mixed layer from the original CFSv2.0 are improved.
Ehud Strobach, Andrea Molod, Donifan Barahona, Atanas Trayanov, Dimitris Menemenlis, and Gael Forget
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2309–2324, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2309-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2309-2022, 2022
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The Green's functions methodology offers a systematic, easy-to-implement, computationally cheap, scalable, and extendable method to tune uncertain parameters in models accounting for the dependent response of the model to a change in various parameters. Herein, we successfully show for the first time that long-term errors in earth system models can be considerably reduced using Green's functions methodology. The method can be easily applied to any model containing uncertain parameters.
Davide Zanchettin, Claudia Timmreck, Myriam Khodri, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Manabu Abe, Slimane Bekki, Jason Cole, Shih-Wei Fang, Wuhu Feng, Gabriele Hegerl, Ben Johnson, Nicolas Lebas, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Landon Rieger, Alan Robock, Sara Rubinetti, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Helen Weierbach
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2265–2292, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, 2022
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This paper provides metadata and first analyses of the volc-pinatubo-full experiment of CMIP6-VolMIP. Results from six Earth system models reveal significant differences in radiative flux anomalies that trace back to different implementations of volcanic forcing. Surface responses are in contrast overall consistent across models, reflecting the large spread due to internal variability. A second phase of VolMIP shall consider both aspects toward improved protocol for volc-pinatubo-full.
Lea Beusch, Zebedee Nicholls, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Malte Meinshausen, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2085–2103, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2085-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2085-2022, 2022
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We introduce the first chain of computationally efficient Earth system model (ESM) emulators to translate user-defined greenhouse gas emission pathways into regional temperature change time series accounting for all major sources of climate change projection uncertainty. By combining the global mean emulator MAGICC with the spatially resolved emulator MESMER, we can derive ESM-specific and constrained probabilistic emulations to rapidly provide targeted climate information at the local scale.
Timothy O. Hodson
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-64, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-64, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The task of selecting explanatory models is fundamental in the scientific process. The “best” models are identified using an objective metric, the choice which ultimately determines what scientists learn from their data. The mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) are two such metrics. Both are widely used, yet there remains enduring confusion over their use. This article reviews the theoretical argument behind their usage, as well as alternatives for when they fail.
Yusuke Sasaki, Hidetaka Kobayashi, and Akira Oka
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2013–2033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2013-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2013-2022, 2022
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For realistically simulating the recently observed distributions of dissolved 230Th and 231Pa in the ocean, we highlight the importance of the removal process of 231Pa and 230Th at the seafloor (bottom scavenging) and the dependence of scavenging efficiency on particle concentration. We show that consideration of these two processes can well reproduce not only the oceanic distribution of 231Pa and 230Th but also the sedimentary 231Pa/230Th ratios.
Stefan Hergarten and Jörg Robl
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2063–2084, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2063-2022, 2022
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The influence of climate on landform evolution has attracted great interest over the past decades. This paper presents a simple model for simulating the influence of topography on precipitation and the decrease in precipitation over large continental areas. The approach can be included in numerical models of large-scale landform evolution and causes only a moderate increase in the numerical complexity. It opens a door to investigating feedbacks between climate and landform evolution.
Qing Zhu, Fa Li, William J. Riley, Li Xu, Lei Zhao, Kunxiaojia Yuan, Huayi Wu, Jianya Gong, and James Randerson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1899–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1899-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1899-2022, 2022
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Wildfire is a devastating Earth system process that burns about 500 million hectares of land each year. It wipes out vegetation including trees, shrubs, and grasses and causes large losses of economic assets. However, modeling the spatial distribution and temporal changes of wildfire activities at a global scale is challenging. This study built a machine-learning-based wildfire surrogate model within an existing Earth system model and achieved high accuracy.
Yanfeng He, Hossain Mohammed Syedul Hoque, and Kengo Sudo
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-39, 2022
Preprint under review for GMD
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Lightning-produced NOx (LNOx) is a major source of NOx. Hence, it is crucial to improve the prediction accuracy of lightning and LNOx in chemical climate models. By modifying existing lightning schemes and testing them in the chemical climate model CHASER. We improved the prediction accuracy of lightning in CHASER. Different lightning schemes response very different under global warming, which indicates further research is needed considering the reproductivity of long-term trends of lightning.
Justus Contzen, Thorsten Dickhaus, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1803–1820, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1803-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1803-2022, 2022
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Climate models are of paramount importance to predict future climate changes. Since many severe consequences of climate change are due to extreme events, the accurate behaviour of models in terms of extremes needs to be validated thoroughly. We present a method for model validation in terms of climate extremes and an algorithm to detect regions in which extremes tend to occur at the same time. These methods are applied to data from different climate models and to observational data.
Enrico Scoccimarro, Daniele Peano, Silvio Gualdi, Alessio Bellucci, Tomas Lovato, Pier Giuseppe Fogli, and Antonio Navarra
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1841–1854, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1841-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1841-2022, 2022
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This study evaluated the ability of the CMCC-CM2 climate model participating to the last CMIP6 effort, in representing extreme events of precipitation and temperature at the daily and 6-hourly frequencies. The 1/4° resolution version of the atmospheric model provides better results than the version at 1° resolution for temperature extremes, at both time frequencies. For precipitation extremes, especially at the daily time frequency, the higher resolution does not improve model results.
Joel Fiddes, Kristoffer Aalstad, and Michael Lehning
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1753–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1753-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1753-2022, 2022
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This study describes and evaluates a new downscaling scheme that addresses the need for hillslope-scale atmospheric forcing time series for modelling the local impact of regional climate change on the land surface in mountain areas. The method has a global scope and is able to generate all model forcing variables required for hydrological and land surface modelling. This is important, as impact models require high-resolution forcings such as those generated here to produce meaningful results.
Yan Yang, A. Anthony Bloom, Shuang Ma, Paul Levine, Alexander Norton, Nicholas C. Parazoo, John T. Reager, John Worden, Gregory R. Quetin, T. Luke Smallman, Mathew Williams, Liang Xu, and Sassan Saatchi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1789–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1789-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1789-2022, 2022
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Global carbon and water have large uncertainties that are hard to quantify in current regional and global models. Field observations provide opportunities for better calibration and validation of current modeling of carbon and water. With the unique structure of CARDAMOM, we have utilized the data assimilation capability and designed the benchmarking framework by using field observations in modeling. Results show that data assimilation improves model performance in different aspects.
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Alexander Robinson, and Neil R. Edwards
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-56, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-56, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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In this paper we present the climate component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. It has a horizontal resolution of 5° × 5° and is designed to simulate the evolution of the Earth system on temporal scales ranging from decades to > 100,000 years. CLIMBER-X is available as open-source code and is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the climate.
Jinyun Tang, William J. Riley, and Qing Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1619–1632, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1619-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1619-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We here describe version 2 of BeTR, a reactive transport model created to help ease the development of biogeochemical capability in Earth system models that are used for quantifying ecosystem–climate feedbacks. We then coupled BeTR-v2 to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model to quantify how different numerical couplings of plants and soils affect simulated ecosystem biogeochemistry. We found that different couplings lead to significant uncertainty that is not correctable by tuning parameters.
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Short summary
A new consistent, process-based methane module that is integrated with permafrost processes is presented. It was developed within a global land surface scheme and evaluated at a polygonal tundra site in Samoylov, Russia. The calculated methane emissions show fair agreement with field data and capture detailed differences between the explicitly modelled gas transport processes and in the gas dynamics under varying soil water and temperature conditions during seasons and on different microsites.
A new consistent, process-based methane module that is integrated with permafrost processes is...
