Articles | Volume 9, issue 6
Development and technical paper
01 Jul 2016
Development and technical paper |  | 01 Jul 2016

Improved forecasting of thermospheric densities using multi-model ensembles

Sean Elvidge, Humberto C. Godinez, and Matthew J. Angling


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AR by Sean Elvidge on behalf of the Authors (17 May 2016)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (26 May 2016) by Aaron Ridley
Short summary
This paper presents the first known application of multi-model ensembles to the forecasting of the thermosphere. A multi-model ensemble (MME) is a method for combining different, independent models. The main advantage of using an MME is to reduce the effect of model errors and bias, since it is expected that the model errors will, at least partly, cancel. This paper shows that use of MMEs for forecasting thermospheric densities can reduce errors by 60 %.