Articles | Volume 9, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1921-2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1921-2016
Development and technical paper
 | 
25 May 2016
Development and technical paper |  | 25 May 2016

Evaluation of the Plant–Craig stochastic convection scheme (v2.0) in the ensemble forecasting system MOGREPS-R (24 km) based on the Unified Model (v7.3)

Richard J. Keane, Robert S. Plant, and Warren J. Tennant

Viewed

Total article views: 3,452 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
2,321 916 215 3,452 186 184
  • HTML: 2,321
  • PDF: 916
  • XML: 215
  • Total: 3,452
  • BibTeX: 186
  • EndNote: 184
Views and downloads (calculated since 01 Dec 2015)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 01 Dec 2015)

Cited

Saved (preprint)

Latest update: 15 Nov 2024
Download
Short summary
A widely studied stochastic deep convection scheme is evaluated over an extended forecasting period for the first time. It is found to significantly improve the probabilistic forecast for weakly forced cases – which tend to be less predictable – and to be comparable to a well-tuned reference scheme for strongly forced cases. A newly developed verification metric is applied to provide evidence that the improved probabilistic forecast is in large part due to the stochasticity of the scheme.