Review of Grzegorczyk et al. – revision 1
The authors have done a thorough and impressive job in significantly modifying and improving the manuscript. From my end, with the exception of one major point, all of my original concerns have been addressed. With regards to the simplified treatment of melting, I think that the authors partially misunderstood what I was suggesting and underestimate the relevance of this point to their primary focus of this study, the impacts of predicted rime density – I have elaborated on this below. I am struggling with what to recommend regarding the manuscript. Strictly speaking, I think this point should really be a deal breaker; however, the authors have already done a lot of work and it is a great paper (and now quite long). But with this oversimplification of melting, some of the conclusions pertaining to the stated scientific objectives are in question. With this, I will recommend major revision and strongly recommend that the authors implement continuous (but still simplified; no liquid fraction) melting, as described below. That said, if the authors opt not to go this route, I will not put up further barriers/delays for this publication – provided that at a minimum this limitation (to interpreting the results on the impacts of rime density) is adequately acknowledged and discussed.
MAJOR CONCERNS
I think the authors are understating the value of simulating continuous melting (with predictive liquid fraction) in arguing that it only affects a relatively thin region (the melting layer). It also impacts the extent to which partially-melted ice can refreeze once it falls back into cold air. This can mean the difference between simulating/predicting precipitation as either ice pellets or freezing rain at the surface. This complex situation is quite common in winter storms in eastern North America, e.g. – and the societal impact is significant. Of more direct importance for this paper is that the oversimplified representation in DESCAM probably results in an incorrect understanding of the impacts of predicted rime mass – so melting cannot just be dismissed as “beyond the scope of this study”. For example, line 694 states that “the melting of massive rimed ice particles also produces larger drops … leading to an earlier onset of rainfall and in increase in total precipitation by 25%” for the squall line simulation and also that “large drops lead to … slowing squall line propagation”. These are significant changes and are clearly related to rime density, but they are clearly also strongly related to the way melting is treated. This cannot be overlooked unless you can argue/show convincingly that the melting treatment does not impact the signal of the impact of predicted rime density (which you cannot without a model that treats melting in more detail).
Also, the authors partially misunderstood my concern about the oversimplified melting. While it is true that this (predicted liquid fraction) is the best approach, as previously done in DESCAM, as described, I was more concerned the instantaneous melting of ice in all size bins, which I believe is what is done now. A cheaper alternative, with no extra variables, is to melt ice gradually but implicitly shed all melted mass to drops on each time step. This is what has been done for years in bulk schemes – the “ice” (tiny crystals) category may melt instantly to rain in some schemes but most compute gradual melting for “snow” and “graupel”. With no liquid fraction you cannot represent mixed-phase particles, so this too is a simplification, but a much less egregious and problematic one as instant melting of all ice.
While I hate to insist on making big model changes (though this would be easy to implement and, as I am arguing, a much better approach), the melting point cannot be casually dismissed within the context of studying the impacts of predicted rime density.
MINOR POINTS:
1. With regards to my comment on aerosols (CCN) on the impact of rime density, laboratory experiments (e.g. Heymfied 1983 [I think]; Cober and List 1993) show that the droplet sizes impact the density of the resulting riming since smaller droplets freeze quickly on impact, leaving gaps, while larger drops “splat” and the liquid spreads out more evenly before freezing. Since CCN concentrations affect droplet sizes, aerosols ultimately affect rime density, albeit indirectly. (e.g. see Jouan and Milbrandt, 2019).
2. Line 127: I missed this the first time, but those m-D parameters for hail seem odd. I would think one could just assume spherical high-density particles, thus ALPHA = (pi/6)*rho_i and BETA = 3. Just curious. Perhaps a reference could be added and/or a brief description of the physical implications of those m-D parameters.
3. Line 170: It should just be “2015”; no “a”. Same with line 252. (Part 2 in that series was Morrison et al. (2015); Part 3 was Milbrandt and Morrison (2016).
4. Line 296: “topography” (which refers to all land surfaces) should be “orography”. Same with caption for Fig. 4.
5. Fig. 7: For c) – f) it would be helpful to have the simulation configurations indicated in the figure panels themselves. Same comment for other figures – in principle one should not even need the caption. Also, personally it seems more intuitive to put CTRL first (left panels) – as is done in Fig. 8. Regardless, be consistent with the order from figure to figure. There are other inconsistencies like that in the paper which, while not at all wrong, are a but off-putting. For example, Line 395 reads “DESCAM pRIME and CTRL simulations” and then on line 399 it reads “DESCAM CTRL and pRIME”. Just a suggestion. Also, in my opinion it is unnecessary to keep repeating “DESCAM” since “CTRL” and “pRIME” have been clearly defined to be DESCAM configurations. It is even slightly misleading since writing “DESCAM CTRL” seems to suggest that there may be one or more other “CTRL” configurations.
6. Line 414: I suggest “…model simulations reproduce the presence…”
7. Fig. 15. d) could be “pRIME – CTRL” so that positive amounts mean increase values for the modified scheme.
8. Line 654: Why would continuous melting require a prognostic treatment of ice particle density? (e.g. P3 unrimed ice). One can simply diagnose the density of the mixed-phase particle using mass-weighting of the dry part (from Fig. 1) and the liquid part. Prognostic density is better, but it is not a show-stopper to predict the liquid fraction and improve the representation of melting.
9. Lines 663-672: The second sentence “However, the behaviour of ice … remains poorly understood” is an overstatement and incorrectly conveys the message that the benefits of improving the prediction of ice particle properties are unknown in general. Certainly this is true for some processes, such as the ones mentions, but the benefits are very well understood for other important processes. For example, the impacts of density on fall speeds – and therefore in turn on other processes (e.g. accretion) -- are well understood. I recommend rephrasing that section to reflect this point. Also, I agree with your last sentence – you may wish to add that this point highlights the continued need for improved field studies, laboratory research, and theoretical research in order to improve the representation of microphysics in models (and you may consider adding the reference to Morrison et al. 2020; JAMES “Confront the challenges of modeling cloud and precipitation microphysics”).
10. Line 757: Should be “We also thank…” (not “thanks”). |
SUMMARY
This manuscript describes the modifications to the DESCAM bin microphysics scheme whereby the predicted rime fraction for ice is added. The authors then conducted high-resolution real-case mesoscale model simulations, using the original and modified scheme, for a heavy snowfall event that was well observed during the ICE-POP 2018 field campaign in South Korea. The authors conclude that the modified scheme improves the simulated precipitation and other fields compared to observations. This is a potentially valuable paper in a few ways. First, although the introduction of prognostic rime mass is not novel in the microphysics modeling community, it is new for DESCAM and it represents an important development to that model. Second, the use of microphysical data from field campaigns such as ICE-POP 2018 is very useful and interesting for examining detailed microphysics schemes. In that and other regards, the manuscript is nice in lots of way, however, it has some major shortcomings (described below) that must be addressed in order for this to be considered for publication.
Given that I am recommending that a DESCAM be further developed (with explicit melting) in order to properly study the effects of predicted rime mass and that idealized tests/demonstrations be added, then to be followed by a modifications to the real-case simulation examination section, one possible path forward would be to re-cast this as a two-part paper: 1) description of new developments + idealized tests; 2) Real-case simulation of the ICE-POP case. It may simply be too long as a single paper and I believe that the additions I am recommending are important. I will leave that to the authors to decide, but the comments below must be addressed. With that, I will recommend major revision.
SPECIFIC COMMENTS
1. The implementation of predicted rime mass in the DESCAM scheme is a major development. The authors go from describing the new method to attempting to illustrate the impacts through a full real case 3D simulation. This is a big leap. Understanding and evaluating the changes to a microphysics scheme is complicated enough; the authors have gone directly to the most challenging approach. Microphysical pathways in a 3D model are very complicated and evaluation based on comparison to observations is inherently challenging. For a major development of the type presented in this study, the authors should really start by illustrating the behaviour of the modified scheme in a very simple context, such as a 0D or 1D model framework, in order to provide the reader a basic understanding of how the new scheme works and what it does, as well as to illustrate that the changes do indeed do what they are supposed to do. I strongly recommend adding a section on idealized tests and demonstrations, even if it means reducing the amount that is presented for the 3D case.
2. The setup of sensitivity experiment is backwards. Normally in a control experiment one takes a baseline configuration, which is the control, and then sets out to conduct one or more sensitivity tests to examine the impact of one or more changes. In this case, the most logical setup would be to prescribe the control (or control simulation), which in this case would be the simulation with the unmodified DESCAM scheme, the control configuration, and define the experiment simulation to be the one with the modified code. Following from point 1, the one could define the CTR (baseline DESCAM) and MOD (DESCAM with rime fraction) configurations and apply them to the idealized simulations/demos and then to the ICEPOP case simulations.
3. When one uses a real-case simulation and comparison to observations to illustrate the benefits (or any kind of impact) of a particular set of changes to a model, one first needs to demonstrate that the control (unmodified) simulation is sufficiently realistic that one may proceed to use the modeling framework to meaningly examine the impacts of sensitivity tests using the modified model. This is why it is necessary to start off with the baseline control. When jumping straight to comparisons between observations and simulations with the modified model, as the authors have done, one cannot tell if discrepancies between the observations and the model are due to limitations of the model set up (which could include a number of things, starting with the initial conditions) or negative impacts resulting from the changes. Figures 5, 6, 7, 8, 10 compare observations and the simulation with the modified code, but no comparison to what should be called the control run (with no rime). Every comparison here should include simulations from both the original and modified microphysics scheme.
4. In the illustrations of model precipitation (Fig. 11), the observations are conspicuous in their absence. There was a dense network of surface precipitation observations in that region for ICEPOP. This needs to be added.
5. The explanation of particle density needs to be expanded upon in section 2.2, not just summarized by a reference to Heymsfield et al. 2018 (line 107). What is the density of ice with a rime fraction of 1? Is there no distinction between graupel and hail? I gather from line (“… it is currently not the case in DESCAM [variable density]”).
6. Line 349, “… in DESCAM [it is assumed that] ice particles melt instantaneously at the 0C isotherm”. This is a huge weakness in the DESCAM microphysics scheme in terms of modeling ice – it is not just a minor simplification. That might be fine for tiny crystal, but certainly not for ice that would be considered to be “snow” (large crystals or aggregates) or graupel. Presumably it would make more sense to address this deficiency in the scheme before adding predicted rime fraction. I definitely think the calculation of explicit melting should be added (it should be added anyway) in order to examine the impacts of rime fraction in the context of a case like ICE-POP. The rime fraction will affect the ice fall speed, which will affect the horizontal distance ice is transported before completely melting, which will therefore affect the spatial distribution of precipitation, particularly in the mountainous regions. So in order to understand the impact of predicted rime fraction, melting has to be treated more rigorously.
MINOR POINTS
1. The title could be improved.“Heavy snowfall event during ICE-POP 2018” by itself does not mean much; it is just a noun.
2. Line 310, “The overproduction of these small ice particles likely originating from a numerical artifact.” This sounds like a guess and is not very satisfactory, particularly given the negative impacts on the simulation.
3. The discussion on the impact the fixed rime density could be expanded upon. If variable density were to be added in DESCAM, this would exploit the predictive aspect of aerosols since the liquid droplet size is important for the rime density.
Given the magnitude of the major comments, I will stop with the minor points and address them in detail if/when a revised manuscript is submitted.