Articles | Volume 19, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5689-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5689-2026
Development and technical paper
 | 
30 Jun 2026
Development and technical paper |  | 30 Jun 2026

Improvement of the Rnnmm-type climate index approach with a spatio-temporal model based on the Hawkes process

Fidel Ernesto Castro Morales, Antonio Marcos Batista do Nascimento, Marina Silva Paez, Daniele Torres Rodrigues, and Carla de Moraes Apolinário

Cited articles

Batista, F. F., Rodrigues, D. T., and e Silva, C. M. S.: Analysis of climatic extremes in the Parnaíba River Basin, Northeast Brazil, using GPM IMERG-V6 products, Weather and Climate Extremes, 43, 100646, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100646, 2024. a
Curtarelli, M. P., Rennó, C. D., and Alcântara, E. H.: Evaluation of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B43 product over an inland area in Brazil and the effects of satellite boost on rainfall estimates, J. Appl. Remote Sens., 8, 083589, https://doi.org/10.1117/1.JRS.8.083589, 2014. a
dos Santos, A. L. M., Gonçalves, W. A., Rodrigues, D. T., Andrade, L. D. M. B., and e Silva, C. M. S.: Evaluation of extreme precipitation indices in Brazil’s Semiarid region from Satellite Data, Atmosphere, 13, 1598, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13101598, 2022. a
Hawkes, A. G.: Spectra of some self-exciting and mutually exciting point processes, Biometrika, 58, 83–90, 1971. a, b
Holbrook, A. J., Loeffler, C. E., Flaxman, S. R., and Suchard, M. A.: Scalable Bayesian inference for self-excitatory stochastic processes applied to big American gunfire data, Stat. Comput., 31, 1–15, 2021. a
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Short summary
This study introduces a new method to better understand extreme rainfall events by considering that heavy rain often occurs in clusters over time. Using rainfall records from northern Brazil, we developed and tested a statistical approach that improved prediction accuracy compared with existing methods. The results can support more reliable climate risk assessments and help improve planning for disaster prevention and climate change adaptation.
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