Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 19, issue 12
Articles | Volume 19, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5689-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5689-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 19, issue 12
Development and technical paper
 | 
30 Jun 2026
Development and technical paper |  | 30 Jun 2026

Improvement of the Rnnmm-type climate index approach with a spatio-temporal model based on the Hawkes process

Fidel Ernesto Castro Morales, Antonio Marcos Batista do Nascimento, Marina Silva Paez, Daniele Torres Rodrigues, and Carla de Moraes Apolinário

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Short summary
This study introduces a new method to better understand extreme rainfall events by considering that heavy rain often occurs in clusters over time. Using rainfall records from northern Brazil, we developed and tested a statistical approach that improved prediction accuracy compared with existing methods. The results can support more reliable climate risk assessments and help improve planning for disaster prevention and climate change adaptation.
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