Articles | Volume 19, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5119-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5119-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
EMMA-Tracker v1.0: a mesoscale convective system tracker and 27-year European observational climatology
David Kneidinger
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
Armin Schaffer
Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
Douglas Maraun
Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
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Daniel Viviroli, Martin Jury, Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Heimo Truhetz, and Douglas Maraun
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1835–1857, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1835-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1835-2026, 2026
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Estimating the frequency and magnitude of floods is challenging due to the limited length of streamflow records. Here, we explore whether an extensive archive of meteorological forecasts run over past dates can assist in this context. After processing and concatenating these data for use as input to a hydrological model, we derive flood statistics from simulated streamflow. Results are promising for the larger catchments studied, providing a valuable complementary perspective on rare floods.
Armin Schaffer, Albert Ossó, and Douglas Maraun
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1712, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1712, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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Atmospheric fronts are a major cause of heavy rainfall in Europe. To understand how climate change affects these events, we analyzed two sets of global and regional climate models. We found that while changing weather patterns may reduce frontal frequency in some areas, the number of heavy rain events will surge. Extreme rainfall events are projected to more than double per degree of warming, driven by increased humidity rather than storm dynamics.
Armin Schaffer, Tobias Lichtenegger, Albert Ossó, and Douglas Maraun
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1815–1830, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1815-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1815-2025, 2025
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Heavy rainfall in Europe is often linked to weather fronts. To understand how these events may change in the future, we first need to evaluate how well climate models represent them. We found that all models show substantial biases, particularly for cold fronts, while higher-resolution models improve their simulation. Warm fronts also show biases, though they are generally better represented than cold fronts. This highlights the importance of high-resolution models for reliable projections.
Kai Kornuber, Emanuele Bevacqua, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wiebke S. Jäger, Pauline Rivoire, Cassandra D. W. Rogers, Fabiola Banfi, Fulden Batibeniz, James Carruthers, Carlo de Michele, Silvia de Angeli, Cristina Deidda, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Andreas H. Fink, Henrique M. D. Goulart, Katharina Küpfer, Patrick Ludwig, Douglas Maraun, Gabriele Messori, Shruti Nath, Fiachra O’Loughlin, Joaquim G. Pinto, Benjamin Poschlod, Alexandre M. Ramos, Colin Raymond, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Deepti Singh, Laura Suarez Gutierrez, Philip J. Ward, and Christopher J. White
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4683, 2025
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Impacts from extreme weather events are becoming increasingly severe under global warming, in particular when events occur simultaneously or successively. While these complex event combinations are often difficult to analyse as impact data, early warning schemes or modelling frameworks might not be fit for purpose. In this perspective we reflect on the usability of compound event research to bridge the gap between academic research and real-world applications, by formulating a set of guidelines.
Colin Manning, Martin Widmann, Douglas Maraun, Anne F. Van Loon, and Emanuele Bevacqua
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023, 2023
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Climate models differ in their representation of dry spells and high temperatures, linked to errors in the simulation of persistent large-scale anticyclones. Models that simulate more persistent anticyclones simulate longer and hotter dry spells, and vice versa. This information is important to consider when assessing the likelihood of such events in current and future climate simulations so that we can assess the plausibility of their future projections.
Yi Yang, Douglas Maraun, Albert Ossó, and Jianping Tang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 693–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-693-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-693-2023, 2023
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This study quantifies the spatiotemporal variation and characteristics of compound long-duration dry and hot events in China over the 1961–2014 period. The results show that over the past few decades, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of these compound events across most parts of China, which is dominated by rising temperatures. We detect a strong increase in the spatially contiguous areas experiencing concurrent dry and hot conditions.
Raphael Knevels, Helene Petschko, Herwig Proske, Philip Leopold, Aditya N. Mishra, Douglas Maraun, and Alexander Brenning
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 205–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023, 2023
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In summer 2009 and 2014, rainfall events occurred in the Styrian Basin (Austria), triggering thousands of landslides. Landslide storylines help to show potential future changes under changing environmental conditions. The often neglected uncertainty quantification was the aim of this study. We found uncertainty arising from the landslide model to be of the same order as climate scenario uncertainty. Understanding the dimensions of uncertainty is crucial for allowing informed decision-making.
Marco Hofmann, Claudia Volosciuk, Martin Dubrovský, Douglas Maraun, and Hans R. Schultz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 911–934, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-911-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-911-2022, 2022
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We modelled water budget developments of viticultural growing regions on the spatial scale of individual vineyard plots with respect to landscape features like the available water capacity of the soils, slope, and aspect of the sites. We used an ensemble of climate simulations and focused on the occurrence of drought stress. The results show a high bandwidth of projected changes where the risk of potential drought stress becomes more apparent in steep-slope regions.
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Short summary
Mesoscale Convective Systems cause extreme weather and flash floods, yet they remain difficult to simulate in climate models. We developed a tracking tool to identify these storms using standard model data. Our 27-year record for Europe shows these systems drive over 60 percent of heavy hourly rain in the warm-season. This algorithm allows us to evaluate climate model performance and investigate how these intense storms will change in a warming climate.
Mesoscale Convective Systems cause extreme weather and flash floods, yet they remain difficult...