Articles | Volume 19, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3853-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3853-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Two-tier MOM6 regional modelling suite of the East Australian Current system
John A. Reilly
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Christopher C. Chapman
CSIRO Environment, Hobart Marine Laboratories, Battery Point, Tasmania, Australia
School of Science, The University of New South Wales – Canberra, Canberra, ACT, Australia
Courtney Quinn
School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Churchill Avenue, Sandy Bay, Tasmania, Australia
Jules B. Kajtar
National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, United Kingdom
Ashley J. Barnes
School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
Neil J. Holbrook
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
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Shilpa Lal, Sophie Cravatte, Christophe Menkes, Jed Macdonald, Romain Le Gendre, Ines Mangolte, Cyril Dutheil, Neil J. Holbrook, and Simon Nicol
Ocean Sci., 22, 1023–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1023-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1023-2026, 2026
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This paper characterizes historical (1981–2023) marine heatwaves in the tropical southwestern Pacific, where they pose a challenge for marine resource dependent Islands. Heatwaves are distinguished as a function of their spatial extent, signature at the coast, and seasonality, to allow a better understanding of their impacts on ecosystems. Marine heatwaves are getting longer and more frequent, with greater spatial extents. Our results aim to inform the Pacific Islands on their vulnerability.
Andrew Richard Axelsen, Terence John O'Kane, Courtney Quinn, and Andrew Bassom
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.175408167.70542127/v1, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.175408167.70542127/v1, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics (NPG).
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Recent increases in the variability of Antarctic sea ice have elicited much interest and research on these changes. Here, we examine observations taken from three specific years (2016, 2021, and 2023) which either contain or precede a period of anomalously low sea ice extent. To understand the combined influence of weather systems, surface temperatures, and atmospheric pressure on sea ice formation and decay, we apply novel methods from machine learning and dynamical systems.
Terence J. O'Kane and Courtney R. Quinn
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 51–72, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-51-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-51-2026, 2026
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Mathematical concepts and measures from dynamical systems theory are applied to identify commonalities across a diverse set of chaotic attractors to better understand the relationship between predictability, directions and rates of expansion and contraction of instabilities over finite time forecast horizons, and dimensionality. The patterns that emerge have broad implications for understanding many dynamical features of geophysical flows.
Chenhui Jin, Elizabeth A. Ritchie, and Neil J. Holbrook
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6321, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6321, 2026
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Tropical cyclones that move into the midlatitudes become extratropical cyclones, so-called extratropical transition. In this study, we detected transition events in the Southern Hemisphere based on the model data. We found that weather patterns during the transition are different from case to case. In some cases, strong tropical cyclones interact with the midlaltitude flow and lead to great changes in weather nearby.
Toan Bui, Ming Feng, and Christopher C. Chapman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1693–1705, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1693-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1693-2025, 2025
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Moored time series data are crucial for detecting changes in the ocean. However, mooring losses or instrument failures often result in data gaps. A gap-filled time series dataset of a shelf mooring array off the Western Australian coast is created using a machine learning tool to fill the data gaps. The gap-filled data show consistency with observations and can be used to characterize marine heat waves and cold spells influenced by ocean boundary currents.
Megan Jeffers, Christopher C. Chapman, Bernadette M. Sloyan, and Helen Bostock
Ocean Sci., 21, 537–554, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-537-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-537-2025, 2025
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This study analyses physical and biogeochemical data collected in the East Australian Current (EAC) to understand variability in the nutrient-poor surface waters. The distribution of nutrients in the water column is influenced by seasonal flow and the EAC's position. An inshore EAC has a deeper nutricline and lower nutrient concentrations compared to an offshore EAC position. This has implications for the marine ecosystems along the coastline.
Samuel Watson and Courtney Quinn
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 31, 381–394, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-381-2024, 2024
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The intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) is explored through a conceptual model derived from geophysical principals. Focus is put on the behaviour of the model with parameters which change in time. The rates of change cause the model to either tip to an alternative stable state or recover the original state. This represents intensification, dissipation, or eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs). A case study which emulates the rapid intensification events of Hurricane Irma (2017) is explored.
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Short summary
Recent advancements in regional ocean modelling allow higher resolution simulations providing improved estimates of the large-scale ocean state, while also revealing new insights into the fine-scale processes connecting the open ocean to the continental shelf seas. Our study highlights the importance of increased model resolution in regions of the ocean that are particularly turbulent while in quasi-stable circulation regions (e.g., jets), the current state-of-the-art global models do suffice.
Recent advancements in regional ocean modelling allow higher resolution simulations providing...