Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1917-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Assessing seasonal climate predictability using a deep learning application: NN4CAST
Download
- Final revised paper (published on 06 Mar 2026)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 18 Jul 2025)
- Supplement to the preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
-
RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3162', Anonymous Referee #1, 26 Aug 2025
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Víctor Galván Fraile, 20 Oct 2025
-
RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3162', Anonymous Referee #2, 09 Sep 2025
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Víctor Galván Fraile, 20 Oct 2025
-
RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3162', Anonymous Referee #3, 22 Sep 2025
- AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Víctor Galván Fraile, 20 Oct 2025
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Víctor Galván Fraile on behalf of the Authors (20 Oct 2025)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (21 Oct 2025) by Di Tian
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (21 Nov 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #4 (01 Jan 2026)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (04 Jan 2026) by Di Tian
AR by Víctor Galván Fraile on behalf of the Authors (23 Jan 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (23 Jan 2026) by Di Tian
RR by Anonymous Referee #4 (11 Feb 2026)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (12 Feb 2026) by Di Tian
AR by Víctor Galván Fraile on behalf of the Authors (18 Feb 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (19 Feb 2026) by Di Tian
AR by Víctor Galván Fraile on behalf of the Authors (20 Feb 2026)
Manuscript
General Comments:
The authors provide a tool that may be utilized to research seasonal predictability using basic deep learning methods. The code library provides a pipeline to preprocess data, train the model, evaluate, and calculate some metrics/attributions, based on a user-defined namelist and input files. Although the model will not achieve state-of-the-art skill, it does have potential for mechanistic studies through explainable AI. However, I do not believe the manuscript in its current state effectively communicates this message.
1. The analysis of the teleconnection between DJF Pacific tropical SST and MAM tropical Atlantic SST and related evaluation of the model is not valid, due to the region of the input predictor field, which includes parts of the western tropical Atlantic. Looking through the individual Integrated*Gradient attribution samples on Zenodo, it is clear that the largest attributions are most often in this area, rather than in the tropical Pacific. This is also confirmed by calculating correlations between areal-averaged SST in the target WTNA or SMSCU region with the input SST field. This leads to unrealistic, inflated skill in Figure 2, which is a result of the inclusion of the west Atlantic in the input fields, rather than the Pacific-Atantic teleconnection, as stated in the text (line 266-267).
2. The discussion surrounding XAI in Figure 3 is unconvincing. Although the model attribution plot (Fig 3c) shows more spatial variability than the simple regression (Fig 3e), this does not necessarily mean there is added value. The work would benefit from further exploring the physical mechanisms associated with the Integrated Gradients attribution. There is not a clear connection between the spatial variance in Fig 3c and the citation of Wade et al. 2023 in the text. How much does the attribution pattern change with different initial seeds? What is the sample size? There is only a ~100 year record that is being used, with even fewer El Niño’s, so I am skeptical of the robustness of model attribution. Have you tried calculating attribution plots, compositing on a warm WTNA or SMSCU, rather than ENSO?
3. The analysis of European precipitation is useful for showing how the predictability varies between different periods. However, the regression analysis in Figure 6 is a little confusing, as you could perform the exact same regression with only observational data, yielding more faithful results and yielding the same conclusion regarding ENSO and European precipitation. Figure 5 shows the model can reproduce some of the same trends as observations, but doesn’t reveal any new insights not available from solely observations.
Similarly to the previous analysis, it does not seem like the model is directly capturing a connection between ENSO and European precipitation, based on the individual attribution plots on Zenodo, which mostly show the model thinks SST anomalies in the extratropical Pacific and Atlantic Ocean are important. What could maybe be useful is to look at the attribution plots for precipitation in skillful regions during 1942-1969? Maybe there is a change in the background state (e.g. the extratropical jet), which changes the propagation of the extratropical Rossby wavetrains that affect European precipitation and thus predictability?
4. In the introduction it is stated that “The idea behind NN4CAST is to mitigate the risk of treating deep learning methods as “black boxes”, thereby enabling users to identify sources of predictability and assess the sensitivity of predictions to variations in the training period and/or to the predictor region.” (line 80). However, the current manuscript does not really analyze the sensitivity to the training period or predictor region.
Specific comments: