Articles | Volume 19, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1559-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1559-2026
Development and technical paper
 | 
24 Feb 2026
Development and technical paper |  | 24 Feb 2026

Development of an under-ice river discharge forecasting system in Delft-Flood Early Warning System (Delft-FEWS) for the Chaudière River based on a coupled hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling approach

Kh Rahat Usman, Rodolfo Alvarado Montero, Tadros Ghobrial, François Anctil, and Arnejan van Loenen

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Cited articles

Anctil, F. and Ramos, M.-H.: Verification Metrics for Hydrological Ensemble Forecasts, in: Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting, edited by: Duan, Q., Pappenberger, F., Thielen, J., Wood, A., Cloke, H. L., and Schaake, J. C., Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 1–30, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40457-3_3-1, 2017. 
Arnal, L., Pietroniro, A. C., Pomeroy, J. W., Fortin, V., Casson, D. R., Stadnyk, T. A., Rokaya, P., Durnford, D., Friesenhan, E., and Clark, M. P.: Towards a coherent flood forecasting framework for Canada: Local to global implications, Journal of Flood Risk Management, n/a, e12895, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12895, 2023. 
Beltaos, S.: Comparing the impacts of regulation and climate on ice-jam flooding of the Peace-Athabasca Delta, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 108, 49–58, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2014.08.006, 2014. 
Beltaos, S.: Assessing the Frequency of Floods in Ice-Covered Rivers under a Changing Climate: Review of Methodology, Geosciences, 11, 514, https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences11120514, 2021. 
Beltaos, S. and Prowse, T. D.: Climate impacts on extreme ice-jam events in Canadian rivers, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 46, 157–181, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626660109492807, 2001. 
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Short summary
Rivers in cold climate regions such as Canada undergo freeze up during winters which makes the estimation forecasting of under-ice discharge very challenging and uncertain since there is no reliable method other than direct measurements. The current study explored the potential of deploying a coupled modelling framework for the estimation and forecasting of this parameter. The framework showed promising potential in addressing the challenge of estimating and forecasting the under-ice discharge.
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