Articles | Volume 19, issue 20
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-10155-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-10155-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
26 Oct 2026
Development and technical paper |
| 26 Oct 2026
| 26 Oct 2026
Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 2: Volcanic sulfur dioxide emissions
Thomas J. Aubry
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK
Michael Sigl
Institute of History & Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
now at: Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Matthew Toohey
Institute of Space and Atmospheric Studies, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, S7N 5A2, Canada
Man Mei Chim
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Magali Verkerk
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK
Anja Schmidt
German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IPA), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Meteorological Institute, Ludwig-Maximilian University Munich, Munich, Germany
Simon A. Carn
Department of Geological and Mining Engineering and Sciences, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI, USA
Related authors
Man Mei Chim, Dominik Stiller, Elisa Ziegler, Thomas J. Aubry, Lucas Boissel, Sébastien Guillet, Brennan Rodgers, Matthew Toohey, Christine Pohl, and Alexei Rozanov
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4193, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4193, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosols from explosive volcanic eruptions are a major climate forcer. We compare the stratospheric aerosol forcing for the next phase of coordinated climate model experiments (CMIP7) against complementary datasets, such as observations of lunar eclipses, stellar extinction, and from satellites. We highlight the potential value of combining observational constraints from complementary datasets with the extensive CMIP7 volcanic emission inventory to refine future forcing data.
Man Mei Chim, Nathan Luke Abraham, Thomas J. Aubry, Ben Johnson, Hella Garny, Susan Solomon, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 6781–6797, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6781-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6781-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Sulfate aerosols from explosive eruptions can provide surfaces for chemical reactions destroying ozone. Assessing the effects of volcanic sulfate aerosols is crucial for understanding future ozone recovery. We find sporadic eruptions can induce a small delay in stratospheric ozone recovery by a few years over Antarctica and Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Our results highlight the importance to continuously monitor atmospheric composition and processes to understand changes in ozone recovery.
Thomas J. Aubry, Matthew Toohey, Sujan Khanal, Man Mei Chim, Magali Verkerk, Ben Johnson, Anja Schmidt, Mahesh Kovilakam, Michael Sigl, Zebedee Nicholls, Larry Thomason, Vaishali Naik, Landon Rieger, Dominik Stiller, Elisa Ziegler, Paul Durack, and Isabel H. Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 3725–3756, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3725-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3725-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Climate forcings, such as solar radiation or anthropogenic greenhouse gases, are required to run global climate model simulations. Stratospheric aerosols, which mostly originate from large volcanic eruptions, are a key natural forcing. In this paper, we document the stratospheric aerosol forcing dataset that will feed the next generation (CMIP7) of climate models. Our dataset is very different from its predecessor (CMIP6), which might affect simulations of the 1850–2021 climate.
Magali Verkerk, Thomas J. Aubry, Chris Smith, Peter O. Hopcroft, Michael Sigl, Jessica E. Tierney, Kevin Anchukaitis, Matthew Osman, Anja Schmidt, and Matthew Toohey
Clim. Past, 21, 1755–1778, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1755-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1755-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Large volcanic eruptions can trigger global cooling, affecting human societies. Using ice-core records and simple climate model to simulate volcanic effect over the last 8500 years, we show that volcanic eruptions cool the climate by 0.12 °C on average. By comparing model results with temperature recorded by tree rings over the last 1000 years, we demonstrate that our models can predict the large-scale cooling caused by volcanic eruptions and can be used in cases of large eruptions in the future.
Jean-Paul Vernier, Thomas J. Aubry, Claudia Timmreck, Anja Schmidt, Lieven Clarisse, Fred Prata, Nicolas Theys, Andrew T. Prata, Graham Mann, Hyundeok Choi, Simon Carn, Richard Rigby, Susan C. Loughlin, and John A. Stevenson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5765–5782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5765-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5765-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2019 Raikoke eruption (Kamchatka, Russia) generated one of the largest emissions of particles and gases into the stratosphere since the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. The Volcano Response (VolRes) initiative, an international effort, provided a platform for the community to share information about this eruption and assess its climate impact. The eruption led to a minor global surface cooling of 0.02 °C in 2020 which is negligible relative to warming induced by human greenhouse gas emissions.
Alexander Mattin, Simon J. Barker, V. Holly L. Winton, Andrea Burke, William Hutchison, Patrick J. Sugden, Kirstin Krüger, Alexa R. Van Eaton, Larry G. Mastin, Michael Sigl, Eric W. Wolff, Shuji Fujita, Kumiko Goto-Azuma, Ikumi Oyabu, Motohiro Hirabayashi, Anders Svensson, Magali Verkerk, Colin J. N. Wilson, Stephen B. Piva, Nels A. Iverson, Nelia W. Dunbar, Helle A. Kjær, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Mirko Severi, Andrei V. Kurbatov, and Dominic A. Winski
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3434, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents evidence of the ~25.3 Ōruanui supereruption preserved in Antarctic ice cores. Glaciochemical signals and volcanic ash were identified across multiple sites, revealing regional differences in volcanic transport, deposition, and preservation. Combining ice core records with climate model simulations, we show the eruption likely caused substantial short-term global cooling and atmospheric change but was unlikely to trigger long-term climate shifts.
Vaughan T. J. Phillips, Sanne M. H. de Jong, Robert Garvey, Martin K. Skoglund, Torbjörn Ahlström, Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Mikael Pontarp, Joacim Rocklöv, Matthew Toohey, Jun-Ichi Yano, Helene Castenbrandt, Carl-Johan Fraenkel, Adam Linder, Henrik Sjödin, and Jesper Sjolte
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5195, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5195, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how volcanic eruptions may have amplified plague pandemics through climate-driven harvest failure and malnutrition. Using a model linking climate, food production, nutrition and disease, we find that the eruptions of 536 and 540 CE could have greatly increased mortality during the Justinianic Plague. The results suggest that food shortages and human movement were important in shaping the pandemic's severity and spread.
Rob Wilson, Ignacio Mundo, Lauren Marshall, Emily Reid, Michael Sigl, Anja Schmidt, Claudia Timmreck, Shih-Wei Fang, Rory Abernethy, Valerie Daux, and Ricardo Villalba
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4785, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
We use tree rings from southern South America to reconstruct summer temperatures back to 1382, providing the first long-term Southern Hemisphere record that clearly captures volcanic cooling. Our results, supported by climate models, show that major tropical eruptions caused substantial cooling in northern Patagonia, but little cooling in Tasmania and New Zealand. The study highlights the importance of tree-ring density measurements for understanding past volcanic impacts on climate.
Natalie Mahowald, Hannah Liddy, Jennifer Marlon, Kostas Tsigaridis, Gisela Winckler, Douglas Hamilton, Jasper Kok, Michael Sigl, Jordan Abell, Adwoa Aboagye-Okyere, Joe Adabouk Amooli, Samuel Albani, Susanne Bauer, Emilie Beaudon, Hunter Brown, Nathan Chellman, Nicolás Cosentino, Nathalie Goodkin, Christopher Guiterman, Stijn Hantson, Chengfei He, Aviva Intveld, Jed Kaplan, Jeremy Klavans, Fabrice Lambert, Haobo Liu, Marie-France Loutre, Joe McConnell, Zachary McGraw, Keren Mezuman, Ron Miller, Nicholas O’Mara, Maria Rosabelle Ong, Gavin Schmidt, Richard Vachula, Lily Wu, and Bingqing Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4532, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4532, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols are poorly known in past climates, and yet it is very important to understand how aerosols are changing in different climates. In this paper we review available proxy data and modeling approaches to characterize aerosols in past climates. In addition, we propose future studies that can help improve our understanding.
Man Mei Chim, Dominik Stiller, Elisa Ziegler, Thomas J. Aubry, Lucas Boissel, Sébastien Guillet, Brennan Rodgers, Matthew Toohey, Christine Pohl, and Alexei Rozanov
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4193, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4193, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosols from explosive volcanic eruptions are a major climate forcer. We compare the stratospheric aerosol forcing for the next phase of coordinated climate model experiments (CMIP7) against complementary datasets, such as observations of lunar eclipses, stellar extinction, and from satellites. We highlight the potential value of combining observational constraints from complementary datasets with the extensive CMIP7 volcanic emission inventory to refine future forcing data.
Jan-Steffen Fischer, Stefanos Fasoulas, Matthias Nützel, and Anja Schmidt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3050, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3050, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
For the calculation of emission inventories of rocket launches we developed the Launch Emission Assessment Tool (LEAT). LEAT is the first open-source emission calculation tool for rocket launch emissions that calculates individual launches and their emissions depending on the launch vehicle and trajectory. LEAT enables the therefore user to develop own trajectory and emission inventories as a basis for estimating the (global) effects of rocket launch emissions.
Evelien J. C. van Dijk, Felix Riede, Claudia Timmreck, Kirstin Krüger, and Michael Sigl
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3266, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3266, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate one of the largest eruptions of the Holocene to study the impacts on global climate and society. The simulations reveal severe and diverging climate anomalies in different regions. This likely had significant impact on the main regions of human settlements, with crop failures due to drought, and potential flooding in areas with extreme precipitation. Studying very large eruptions is important for understanding the risks of these events, that the world is ill-prepared for.
Man Mei Chim, Nathan Luke Abraham, Thomas J. Aubry, Ben Johnson, Hella Garny, Susan Solomon, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 6781–6797, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6781-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-6781-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Sulfate aerosols from explosive eruptions can provide surfaces for chemical reactions destroying ozone. Assessing the effects of volcanic sulfate aerosols is crucial for understanding future ozone recovery. We find sporadic eruptions can induce a small delay in stratospheric ozone recovery by a few years over Antarctica and Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Our results highlight the importance to continuously monitor atmospheric composition and processes to understand changes in ozone recovery.
Thomas J. Aubry, Matthew Toohey, Sujan Khanal, Man Mei Chim, Magali Verkerk, Ben Johnson, Anja Schmidt, Mahesh Kovilakam, Michael Sigl, Zebedee Nicholls, Larry Thomason, Vaishali Naik, Landon Rieger, Dominik Stiller, Elisa Ziegler, Paul Durack, and Isabel H. Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 3725–3756, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3725-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3725-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Climate forcings, such as solar radiation or anthropogenic greenhouse gases, are required to run global climate model simulations. Stratospheric aerosols, which mostly originate from large volcanic eruptions, are a key natural forcing. In this paper, we document the stratospheric aerosol forcing dataset that will feed the next generation (CMIP7) of climate models. Our dataset is very different from its predecessor (CMIP6), which might affect simulations of the 1850–2021 climate.
África Barreto, Francisco Quirós, Omaira E. García, Jorge Pereda-de-Pablo, Daniel González-Fernández, Andrés Bedoya-Velásquez, Michael Sicard, Carmen Córdoba-Jabonero, Marco Iarlori, Vincenzo Rizi, Nickolay Krotkov, Simon Carn, Reijo Roininen, Antonio J. Molina-Arias, A. Fernando Almansa, Óscar Álvarez-Losada, Carla Aramo, Juan José Bustos, Romain Ceolato, Adolfo Comerón, Alicia Felpeto, Rosa D. García, Pablo González-Sicilia, Yenny González, Pascal Hedelt, Miguel Hernández, María-Ángeles López-Cayuela, Diego Loyola, Stavros Meletlidis, Constantino Muñoz-Porcar, Ermanno Pietropaolo, Ramón Ramos, Alejandro Rodríguez-Gómez, Roberto Román, Pedro M. Romero-Campos, Martin Stuefer, Carlos Toledano, and Ellsworth J. Welton
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 19, 1385–1406, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-1385-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-1385-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This manuscript describes the instrumental coverage deployed during the Tajogaite eruption (19 September–25 December 2021) by the Instituto Geográfico Nacional (IGN), the Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), and other Spanish members of ACTRIS (Aerosol, Clouds and Trace Gases Research Infrastructure) to monitor its atmospheric impact. Two complementary methods provide consistent plume height data for future operational surveillance.
Robert J. D. Spurr, Matt Christi, Nickolay A. Krotkov, Won-Ei Choi, Simon Carn, Can Li, Natalya Kramarova, David Haffner, Eun-Su Yang, Nick Gorkavyi, Alexander Vasilkov, Krzysztof Wargan, Omar Torres, Diego Loyola, Serena Di Pede, J. Pepijn Veefkind, Parker Case, Thomas Schroeder, and Pawan K. Bhartia
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 19, 993–1021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-993-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-993-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The submarine eruption of the Hunga volcano released water vapor and sulfur dioxide directly into the stratosphere. The sulfur dioxide formed sulfuric acid aerosols leading to increased scattering of solar ultraviolet radiation (UV), interfering with satellite ozone retrievals. We present a new satellite technique for deriving the amount and height of Hunga aerosols from UV measurements, revealing an unusually low sulfuric acid concentration due to the water-rich conditions in the fresh plume.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amy H. Butler, Xinyue Wang, Zhihong Zhuo, Wandi Yu, Georgiy Stenchikov, Matthew Toohey, and Yunqian Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 197–215, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-197-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-197-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate whether the 2022 Hunga eruption could affect surface climate via indirect pathways using large ensembles of Earth System Model simulations. These suggest that the eruption could have a non-negligible influence on regional surface climate, and we discuss the mechanisms via which such an influence could occur but also highlight that the forcing is relatively weak compared to natural climate variability which significantly hinders the detection of such impacts in the real world.
Rachel C. W. Whitty, Evgenia Ilyinskaya, Melissa A. Pfeffer, Ragnar H. Thrastarson, Þorsteinn Johannsson, Sara Barsotti, Tjarda J. Roberts, Guðni M. Gilbert, Tryggvi Hjörvar, Anja Schmidt, Daniela Fecht, and Grétar G. Sæmundsson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 313–347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-313-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-313-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We studied air pollution caused by volcanic emissions, a poorly understood hazard in populated areas. We present a large dataset of high-quality measurements of sulfur dioxide gas and fine aerosol particulate matter collected during ongoing series of eruptions in Iceland. We revealed rapid, localized changes in pollutant concentrations at ground level, with implications for assessing population exposure during volcanic eruptions.
Sujan Khanal, Matthew Toohey, Adam Bourassa, C. Thomas McElroy, Christopher Sioris, and Kaley A. Walker
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 6835–6852, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-6835-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-6835-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Measurements of stratospheric aerosol from the Measurement of Aerosol Extinction in the Stratosphere and Troposphere Retrieved by Occultation (MAESTRO) instrument are compared to other measurements to assess their scientific value. We find that medians of MAESTRO measurements binned by month and latitude show reasonable correlation with other data sets, with notable increases after volcanic eruptions, and that biases in the data can be alleviated through a simple correction technique. Used with care, MAESTRO aerosol measurements provide information that can complement other data sets.
Monica Sharma, Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, Anja Schmidt, Daniel Sauer, and Volker Grewe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 8485–8510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8485-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8485-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A plume model is developed to simulate aerosol microphysics in a dispersing aircraft plume, including interactions between ice crystals and aerosols in vortex regime. Compared to an instantaneous dispersion approach, the plume approach estimates 15 % lower aviation aerosol number concentrations, due to more efficient coagulation at plume scale. The model is sensitive to background conditions and initialization parameters, such as ice crystal number concentration and fuel sulfur content.
Magali Verkerk, Thomas J. Aubry, Chris Smith, Peter O. Hopcroft, Michael Sigl, Jessica E. Tierney, Kevin Anchukaitis, Matthew Osman, Anja Schmidt, and Matthew Toohey
Clim. Past, 21, 1755–1778, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1755-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1755-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Large volcanic eruptions can trigger global cooling, affecting human societies. Using ice-core records and simple climate model to simulate volcanic effect over the last 8500 years, we show that volcanic eruptions cool the climate by 0.12 °C on average. By comparing model results with temperature recorded by tree rings over the last 1000 years, we demonstrate that our models can predict the large-scale cooling caused by volcanic eruptions and can be used in cases of large eruptions in the future.
Paul A. Nicknish, Kane Stone, Susan Solomon, and Simon A. Carn
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 11535–11555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-11535-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-11535-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Large volcanic eruptions can inject teragrams of sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere, influencing stratospheric chemistry and Earth's climate. This work calculates decay timescales of volcanic gas-phase SO2 in the stratosphere using data from three satellite products. SO2 decay timescales vary significantly between the different products, and this uncertainty limits our ability to attribute an observed SO2 decay following an eruption to a specific chemical process.
Roberto Bilbao, Thomas J. Aubry, Matthew Toohey, Pablo Ortega, Vladimir Lapin, and Etienne Tourigny
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 6239–6254, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6239-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6239-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Large volcanic eruptions are unpredictable and can have significant climatic impacts. If one occurs, operational decadal forecasts will become invalid and must be rerun including the volcanic forcing. By analyzing the climate response in EC-Earth3 retrospective predictions, we show that idealised forcings produced with two simple models could be used in operational decadal forecasts to account for the radiative impacts of the next major volcanic eruption.
Matthew Toohey, Yue Jia, Sujan Khanal, and Susann Tegtmeier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3821–3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3821-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3821-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The climate impact of volcanic eruptions depends in part on how long aerosols spend in the stratosphere. We develop a conceptual model for stratospheric aerosol lifetime in terms of production and decay timescales, as well as a lag between injection and decay. We find residence time depends strongly on injection height in the lower stratosphere. We show that the lifetime of stratospheric aerosol from the 1991 Pinatubo eruption is around 22 months, significantly longer than is commonly reported.
Lauren R. Marshall, Anja Schmidt, Andrew P. Schurer, Nathan Luke Abraham, Lucie J. Lücke, Rob Wilson, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Ben Johnson, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Myriam Khodri, and Kohei Yoshida
Clim. Past, 21, 161–184, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-161-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Large volcanic eruptions have caused temperature deviations over the past 1000 years; however, climate model results and reconstructions of surface cooling using tree rings do not match. We explore this mismatch using the latest models and find a better match to tree-ring reconstructions for some eruptions. Our results show that the way in which eruptions are simulated in models matters for the comparison to tree-rings, particularly regarding the spatial spread of volcanic aerosol.
Mahesh Kovilakam, Larry W. Thomason, Magali Verkerk, Thomas Aubry, and Travis N. Knepp
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 535–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-535-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-535-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC) is essential for understanding and modeling the climatic impacts of stratospheric aerosols, comprising data from various space-based measurements. Here, we examine the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS-LP) against other data sets, particularly the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) III/ISS, to discern differences and explore the applicability of OMPS data within the GloSSAC framework.
Evelien J. C. van Dijk, Christoph C. Raible, Michael Sigl, Johann Jungclaus, and Heinz Wanner
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-79, 2024
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
The temperature in the past 4000 years consisted of warm and cold periods, initiated by external forcing. But, these periods are not consistent through time and space. We use climate models and reconstructions to study to which extent the periods are reflected in the European climate. We find that on local scales, the chaotic nature of the climate system is larger than the external forcing. This study shows that these periods have to be used very carefully when studying a local site.
Jingmin Li, Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, Christof G. Beer, Ulrike Burkhardt, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12727–12747, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12727-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Aiming to understand underlying patterns and trends in aerosols, we characterize the spatial patterns and long-term evolution of lower tropospheric aerosols by clustering multiple aerosol properties from preindustrial times to the year 2050 under three Shared
Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. The results provide a clear and condensed picture of the spatial extent and distribution of aerosols for different time periods and emission scenarios.
Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. The results provide a clear and condensed picture of the spatial extent and distribution of aerosols for different time periods and emission scenarios.
Can Li, Nickolay A. Krotkov, Joanna Joiner, Vitali Fioletov, Chris McLinden, Debora Griffin, Peter J. T. Leonard, Simon Carn, Colin Seftor, and Alexander Vasilkov
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 4291–4309, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4291-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4291-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sulfur dioxide (SO2), a poisonous gas from human activities and volcanoes, causes air pollution, acid rain, and changes to climate and the ozone layer. Satellites have been used to monitor SO2 globally, including remote areas. Here we describe a new satellite SO2 dataset from the OMPS instrument that flies on the N20 satellite. Results show that the new dataset agrees well with the existing ones from other satellites and can help to continue the global monitoring of SO2 from space.
Moritz Günther, Hauke Schmidt, Claudia Timmreck, and Matthew Toohey
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7203–7225, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7203-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7203-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol has been shown to cause pronounced cooling in the tropical Indian and western Pacific oceans. Using a climate model, we show that this arises from enhanced meridional energy export via the stratosphere. The aerosol causes stratospheric heating and thus an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation that accomplishes this transport. Our findings highlight the importance of circulation adjustments and surface perspectives on forcing for understanding temperature responses.
Zhihong Zhuo, Herman F. Fuglestvedt, Matthew Toohey, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6233–6249, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6233-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6233-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work simulated volcanic eruptions with varied eruption source parameters under different initial conditions with a fully coupled Earth system model. We show that initial atmospheric conditions control the meridional distribution of volcanic volatiles and modulate volcanic forcing and subsequent climate and environmental impacts of tropical and Northern Hemisphere extratropical eruptions. This highlights the potential for predicting these impacts as early as the first post-eruption month.
Jean-Paul Vernier, Thomas J. Aubry, Claudia Timmreck, Anja Schmidt, Lieven Clarisse, Fred Prata, Nicolas Theys, Andrew T. Prata, Graham Mann, Hyundeok Choi, Simon Carn, Richard Rigby, Susan C. Loughlin, and John A. Stevenson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5765–5782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5765-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5765-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2019 Raikoke eruption (Kamchatka, Russia) generated one of the largest emissions of particles and gases into the stratosphere since the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. The Volcano Response (VolRes) initiative, an international effort, provided a platform for the community to share information about this eruption and assess its climate impact. The eruption led to a minor global surface cooling of 0.02 °C in 2020 which is negligible relative to warming induced by human greenhouse gas emissions.
Christina V. Brodowsky, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriel Chiodo, Valentina Aquila, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Michael Höpfner, Anton Laakso, Graham W. Mann, Ulrike Niemeier, Giovanni Pitari, Ilaria Quaglia, Eugene Rozanov, Anja Schmidt, Takashi Sekiya, Simone Tilmes, Claudia Timmreck, Sandro Vattioni, Daniele Visioni, Pengfei Yu, Yunqian Zhu, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5513–5548, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5513-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The aerosol layer is an essential part of the climate system. We characterize the sulfur budget in a volcanically quiescent (background) setting, with a special focus on the sulfate aerosol layer using, for the first time, a multi-model approach. The aim is to identify weak points in the representation of the atmospheric sulfur budget in an intercomparison of nine state-of-the-art coupled global circulation models.
Laura Wainman, Lauren R. Marshall, and Anja Schmidt
Clim. Past, 20, 951–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-951-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-951-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Mt Samalas eruption had global-scale impacts on climate and has been linked to historical events throughout latter half of the 13th century. Using model simulations and multi-proxy data, we constrain the year and season of the eruption to summer 1257 and investigate the regional-scale variability in surface cooling following the eruption. We also evaluate our model-to-proxy comparison framework and discuss current limitations of the approach.
Julie Christin Schindlbeck-Belo, Matthew Toohey, Marion Jegen, Steffen Kutterolf, and Kira Rehfeld
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1063–1081, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1063-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1063-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic forcing of climate resulting from major explosive eruptions is a dominant natural driver of past climate variability. To support model studies of the potential impacts of explosive volcanism on climate variability across timescales, we present an ensemble reconstruction of volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection over the last 140 000 years that is based primarily on tephra records.
Vitali E. Fioletov, Chris A. McLinden, Debora Griffin, Nickolay A. Krotkov, Can Li, Joanna Joiner, Nicolas Theys, and Simon Carn
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 5575–5592, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-5575-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-5575-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Snow-covered terrain, with its high reflectance in the UV, typically enhances satellite sensitivity to boundary layer pollution. However, a significant fraction of high-quality cloud-free measurements over snow is currently excluded from analyses. In this study, we investigated how satellite SO2 measurements over snow-covered surfaces can be used to improve estimations of annual SO2 emissions.
Lucie J. Lücke, Andrew P. Schurer, Matthew Toohey, Lauren R. Marshall, and Gabriele C. Hegerl
Clim. Past, 19, 959–978, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-959-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-959-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Evidence from tree rings and ice cores provides incomplete information about past volcanic eruptions and the Sun's activity. We model past climate with varying solar and volcanic scenarios and compare it to reconstructed temperature. We confirm that the Sun's influence was small and that uncertain volcanic activity can strongly influence temperature shortly after the eruption. On long timescales, independent data sources closely agree, increasing our confidence in understanding of past climate.
Flossie Brown, Lauren Marshall, Peter H. Haynes, Rolando R. Garcia, Thomas Birner, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5335–5353, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5335-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Large-magnitude volcanic eruptions have the potential to alter large-scale circulation patterns, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO is an oscillation of the tropical stratospheric zonal winds between easterly and westerly directions. Using a climate model, we show that large-magnitude eruptions can delay the progression of the QBO, with a much longer delay when the shear is easterly than when it is westerly. Such delays may affect weather and transport of atmospheric gases.
Vitali E. Fioletov, Chris A. McLinden, Debora Griffin, Ihab Abboud, Nickolay Krotkov, Peter J. T. Leonard, Can Li, Joanna Joiner, Nicolas Theys, and Simon Carn
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 75–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-75-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-75-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sulfur dioxide (SO2) measurements from three satellite instruments were used to update and extend the previously developed global catalogue of large SO2 emission sources. This version 2 of the global catalogue covers the period of 2005–2021 and includes a total of 759 continuously emitting point sources. The catalogue data show an approximate 50 % decline in global SO2 emissions between 2005 and 2021, although emissions were relatively stable during the last 3 years.
Michael Sigl, Matthew Toohey, Joseph R. McConnell, Jihong Cole-Dai, and Mirko Severi
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3167–3196, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3167-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanism is a key driver of climate. Based on ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica, we reconstruct its climate impact potential over the Holocene. By aligning records on a well-dated chronology from Antarctica, we resolve long-standing inconsistencies in the dating of past volcanic eruptions. We reconstruct 850 eruptions (which, in total, injected 7410 Tg of sulfur in the stratosphere) and estimate how they changed the opacity of the atmosphere, a prerequisite for climate model simulations.
Helen Mackay, Gill Plunkett, Britta J. L. Jensen, Thomas J. Aubry, Christophe Corona, Woon Mi Kim, Matthew Toohey, Michael Sigl, Markus Stoffel, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Christoph Raible, Matthew S. M. Bolton, Joseph G. Manning, Timothy P. Newfield, Nicola Di Cosmo, Francis Ludlow, Conor Kostick, Zhen Yang, Lisa Coyle McClung, Matthew Amesbury, Alistair Monteath, Paul D. M. Hughes, Pete G. Langdon, Dan Charman, Robert Booth, Kimberley L. Davies, Antony Blundell, and Graeme T. Swindles
Clim. Past, 18, 1475–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the climatic and societal impact of the 852/3 CE Alaska Mount Churchill eruption using environmental reconstructions, historical records and climate simulations. The eruption is associated with significant Northern Hemisphere summer cooling, despite having only a moderate sulfate-based climate forcing potential; however, evidence of a widespread societal response is lacking. We discuss the difficulties of confirming volcanic impacts of a single eruption even when it is precisely dated.
Davide Zanchettin, Claudia Timmreck, Myriam Khodri, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Manabu Abe, Slimane Bekki, Jason Cole, Shih-Wei Fang, Wuhu Feng, Gabriele Hegerl, Ben Johnson, Nicolas Lebas, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Landon Rieger, Alan Robock, Sara Rubinetti, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Helen Weierbach
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2265–2292, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides metadata and first analyses of the volc-pinatubo-full experiment of CMIP6-VolMIP. Results from six Earth system models reveal significant differences in radiative flux anomalies that trace back to different implementations of volcanic forcing. Surface responses are in contrast overall consistent across models, reflecting the large spread due to internal variability. A second phase of VolMIP shall consider both aspects toward improved protocol for volc-pinatubo-full.
Gill Plunkett, Michael Sigl, Hans F. Schwaiger, Emma L. Tomlinson, Matthew Toohey, Joseph R. McConnell, Jonathan R. Pilcher, Takeshi Hasegawa, and Claus Siebe
Clim. Past, 18, 45–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-45-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-45-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We report the identification of volcanic ash associated with a sulfate layer in Greenland ice cores previously thought to have been from the Vesuvius 79 CE eruption and which had been used to confirm the precise dating of the Greenland ice-core chronology. We find that the tephra was probably produced by an eruption in Alaska. We show the importance of verifying sources of volcanic signals in ice cores through ash analysis to avoid errors in dating ice cores and interpreting volcanic impacts.
Nick Gorkavyi, Nickolay Krotkov, Can Li, Leslie Lait, Peter Colarco, Simon Carn, Matthew DeLand, Paul Newman, Mark Schoeberl, Ghassan Taha, Omar Torres, Alexander Vasilkov, and Joanna Joiner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 7545–7563, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7545-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The 21 June 2019 eruption of the Raikoke volcano produced significant amounts of volcanic aerosols (sulfate and ash) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas that penetrated into the lower stratosphere. We showed that the amount of SO2 decreases with a characteristic period of 8–18 d and the peak of sulfate aerosol lags the initial peak of SO2 by 1.5 months. We also examined the dynamics of an unusual stratospheric coherent circular cloud of SO2 and aerosol observed from 18 July to 22 September 2019.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Stephan J. Lorenz, Michael Sigl, Matthew Toohey, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 17, 2481–2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2481-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2481-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using the comprehensive Earth system model, MPI-ESM1.2, we explore the global Holocene vegetation changes and interpret them in terms of the Holocene climate change. The model results reveal that most of the Holocene vegetation transitions seen outside the high northern latitudes can be attributed to modifications in the intensity of the global summer monsoons.
Cited articles
Abbott, P. M., Niemeier, U., Timmreck, C., Riede, F., McConnell, J. R., Severi, M., Fischer, H., Svensson, A., Toohey, M., Reinig, F., and Sigl, M.: Volcanic climate forcing preceding the inception of the Younger Dryas: Implications for tracing the Laacher See eruption, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 274, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107260, 2021.
APARC: The Hunga Volcanic Eruption Atmospheric Impacts Report, edited by: Zhu, Y., Mann, G., Newman, P. A., and Randel, W., APARC Report No. 11, WCRP-10/2025, https://doi.org/10.34734/FZJ-2025-05237, https://aparc-climate.org/publications/ (last access: 10 October 2026), 2025.
Arfeuille, F., Weisenstein, D., Mack, H., Rozanov, E., Peter, T., and Brönnimann, S.: Volcanic forcing for climate modeling: a new microphysics-based data set covering years 1600–present, Clim. Past, 10, 359–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-359-2014, 2014.
Aubry, T.: Scripts and source datasets for CMIP7 stratospheric aerosol forcing datasets (v2.2.1) (version 2.2.1), Zenodo [code and data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17295697, 2025.
Aubry, T. J., Jellinek, A. M., Degruyter, W., Bonadonna, C., Radic, V., Clyne, M., and Quainoo, A.: Impact of global warming on the rise of volcanic plumes and implications for future volcanic aerosol forcing, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 13326–13351, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025405, 2016.
Aubry, T. J., Cerminara, M., and Jellinek, A. M.: Impacts of climate change on volcanic stratospheric injections: Comparison of 1D and 3D plume model projections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083975, 2019.
Aubry, T. J., Engwell, S., Bonadonna, C., Carazzo, G., Scollo, S., Van Eaton, A. R., Taylor, I. A., Jessop, D., Eychenne, J., Gouhier, M., Mastin, L. G., Wallace, K. L., Biass, S., Bursik, M., Grainger, R. G., Jellinek, A. M., and Schmidt, A. The Independent Volcanic Eruption Source Parameter Archive (IVESPA, version 1.0): A new observational database to support explosive eruptive column model validation and development, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2021.107295, 2021.
Aubry, T. J., Toohey, M., Khanal, S., Chim, M. M., Verkerk, M., Johnson, B., Schmidt, A., Kovilakam, M., Sigl, M., Nicholls, Z., Thomason, L., Naik, V., Rieger, L., Stiller, D., Ziegler, E., Durack, P., and Smith, I. H.: Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 1: optical properties for pre-industrial, historical, and scenario simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 3725–3756, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3725-2026, 2026a.
Aubry, T., Sigl, M., Toohey, M., Chim, M. M., Verkerk, M., Schmidt, A., and Carn, S.: Supplementary tables for “Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 (part 2): Volcanic sulfur dioxide emissions” (Version version 2.2.1), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18412288, 2026b.
Banta, J. R. and McConnell, J. R.: Annual accumulation over recent centuries at four sites in central Greenland, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007887, 2007.
Baroni, M., Thiemens, M. H., Delmas, R. J., and Savarino, J.: Mass-independent sulfur isotopic compositions in stratospheric volcanic eruptions, Science, 315, 84–87, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1131754, 2007.
Bingen, C., Robert, C. E., Stebel, K., Brühl, C., Schallock, J., Vanhellemont, F., Mateshvili, N., Höpfner, M., Trickl, T., Barnes, J. E., Jumelet, J., Vernier, J.-P., Popp, T., de Leeuw, G., and Pinnock, S.: Stratospheric aerosol data records for the climate change initiative: Development, validation and application to chemistry-climate modelling, Remote Sens. Environ., 203, 296–321, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.06.002, 2017.
Bourassa, A. E., Robock, A., Randel, W. J., Deshler, T., Rieger, L. A., Lloyd, N. D., Llewellyn, E. J., and Degenstein, D. A.: Large volcanic aerosol load in the stratosphere linked to Asian monsoon transport, Science, 337, 78–81, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1219371, 2012.
Brenna, H., Kutterolf, S., and Krüger, K.: Global ozone depletion and increase of UV radiation caused by pre-industrial tropical volcanic eruptions, Sci. Rep., 9, 9435, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-45630-0, 2019.
Brown, S. K., Crosweller, H. S., Sparks, R. S. J., Cottrell, E., Deligne, N. I., Ortiz Guerrero, N., Hobbs, L., Kiyosugi, K., Loughlin, S. C., Siebert, L., and Takarada, S.: Characterisation of the Quaternary eruption record: analysis of the Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions (LaMEVE) database, J. Appl. Volcanol., 3, 5, https://doi.org/10.1186/2191-5040-3-5, 2014.
Brown, T. F. M., Bannister, M. T., Revell, L. E., Sukhodolov, T., and Rozanov, E.: Worldwide Rocket Launch Emissions 2019: An Inventory for Use in Global Models, Earth Space Sci., 11, e2024EA003668, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EA003668, 2024.
Burke, A., Moore, K. A., Sigl, M., Nita, D. C., McConnell, J. R., and Adkins, J. F.: Stratospheric eruptions from tropical and extratropical volcanoes constrained using high-resolution sulfur isotopes in ice cores, Earth Planet Sc. Lett., 521, 113–119, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2019.06.006, 2019.
Burke, A., Innes, H. M., Crick, L., Anchukaitis, K. J., Byrne, M. P., Hutchison, W., McConnell, J. R., Moore, K. A., Rae, J. W. B., Sigl, M., and Wilson, R.: High sensitivity of summer temperatures to stratospheric sulfur loading from volcanoes in the Northern Hemisphere, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 120, e2221810120, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2221810120, 2023.
Carboni, E., Grainger, R. G., Mather, T. A., Pyle, D. M., Thomas, G. E., Siddans, R., Smith, A. J. A., Dudhia, A., Koukouli, M. E., and Balis, D.: The vertical distribution of volcanic SO2 plumes measured by IASI, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4343–4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4343-2016, 2016.
Carn, S.: Multi-Satellite Volcanic Sulfur Dioxide L4 Long-Term Global Database V4, NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/MEASURES/SO2/DATA405, 2021.
Carn, S. A., Clarisse, L., and Prata, A. J.: Multi-decadal satellite measurements of global volcanic degassing, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 311, 99–134, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2016.01.002, 2016.
Carn, S. A., Fioletov, V. E., McLinden, C. A., Li, C., and Krotkov, N. A.: A decade of global volcanic SO2 emissions measured from space, Sci. Rep., 7, 44095, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep44095, 2017.
Carn, S. A., Krotkov, N. A., Fisher, B. L., and Li, C.: Out of the blue: Volcanic SO2 emissions during the 2021–2022 eruptions of Hunga Tonga – Hunga Ha'apai (Tonga), Front. Earth Sci., 10, 976962, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.976962, 2022.
Chim, M. M., Aubry, T. J., Smith, C., and Schmidt, A.: Neglecting future sporadic volcanic eruptions underestimates climate uncertainty, Commun. Earth Environ., 6, 236, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02208-1, 2025.
Chim, M. M., Stiller, D., Ziegler, E., Aubry, T. J., Boissel, L., Guillet, S., Rodgers, B., Toohey, M., Pohl, C., and Rozanov, A.: Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 3: comparison with CMIP6 and evaluation using complementary datasets, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4193, 2026.
Clarisse, L., Hurtmans, D., Clerbaux, C., Hadji-Lazaro, J., Ngadi, Y., and Coheur, P.-F.: Retrieval of sulphur dioxide from the infrared atmospheric sounding interferometer (IASI), Atmos. Meas. Tech., 5, 581–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-5-581-2012, 2012.
Clausen, H. B. and Hammer, C. U.: The Laki and Tambora Eruptions as Revealed in Greenland Ice Cores from 11 Locations, Ann. Glaciol., 10, 16–22, 1988.
Clyne, M., Lamarque, J.-F., Mills, M. J., Khodri, M., Ball, W., Bekki, S., Dhomse, S. S., Lebas, N., Mann, G., Marshall, L., Niemeier, U., Poulain, V., Robock, A., Rozanov, E., Schmidt, A., Stenke, A., Sukhodolov, T., Timmreck, C., Toohey, M., Tummon, F., Zanchettin, D., Zhu, Y., and Toon, O. B.: Model physics and chemistry causing intermodel disagreement within the VolMIP-Tambora Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol ensemble, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3317–3343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, 2021.
Cole-Dai, J.: Volcanoes and climate, Wires Clim. Change, 1, 824–839, 2010.
Colombier, M., Bonifacie, M., Brenna, M., Burke, A., Cimarelli, C., Cronin, S.J., Delmelle, P., Dingwell, D. B., Hess, K. U., Huebsch, M., and Kula, T.: The role of submarine volcanism in atmospheric chemistry, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 671, p. 119690, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2025.119690, 2025.
Crowley, T. J. and Unterman, M. B.: Technical details concerning development of a 1200 yr proxy index for global volcanism, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 187–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-187-2013, 2013.
Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Bacmeister, J., Bailey, D. A., DuVivier, A. K., Edwards, J., Emmons, L. K., Fasullo, J., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A., Hannay, C., Holland, M. M., Large, W. G., Lauritzen, P. H., Lawrence, D. M., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb, W. H., Mills, M. J., Neale, R., Oleson, K. W., Otto-Bliesner, B., Phillips, A., Sacks, W., Tilmes, S., van Kampenhout, L., Vertenstein, M., Bertini, A., Dennis, J., Deser, C., Fischer, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Kay, J. E., Kinnison, D. E., Kushner, P. J., Larson, V. E., Long, M. C., Mickelson, S., Moore, J. K., Nienhouse, E., Polvani, L., Rasch, P. J., and Strand, W. G.: The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 12, e2019MS001916, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001916, 2020.
Davis, N. A., Visioni, D., Garcia, R. R., Kinnison, D. E., Marsh, D. R., Mills, M., Richter, J. H., Tilmes, S., Bardeen, C. G., Gettelman, A., Glanville, A. A., MacMartin, D. G., Smith, A. K., and Vitt, F.: Climate, variability, and climate sensitivity of 'Middle Atmosphere' chemistry configurations of the Community Earth System Model Version 2, Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (CESM2(WACCM6)), J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 15, e2022MS003579, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022MS003579, 2023.
Dhomse, S. S., Mann, G. W., Antuña Marrero, J. C., Shallcross, S. E., Chipperfield, M. P., Carslaw, K. S., Marshall, L., Abraham, N. L., and Johnson, C. E.: Evaluating the simulated radiative forcings, aerosol properties, and stratospheric warmings from the 1963 Mt Agung, 1982 El Chichón, and 1991 Mt Pinatubo volcanic aerosol clouds, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13627–13654, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13627-2020, 2020.
Dixon, D., Mayewski, P. A., Kaspari, S., Sneed, S., and Handley, M.: A 200 year sub-annual record of sulfate in West Antarctica, from 16 ice cores, Ann. Glaciol., 39, 545–556, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756404781814113, 2004.
Dunne, J. P., Hewitt, H. T., Arblaster, J. M., Bonou, F., Boucher, O., Cavazos, T., Dingley, B., Durack, P. J., Hassler, B., Juckes, M., Miyakawa, T., Mizielinski, M., Naik, V., Nicholls, Z., O'Rourke, E., Pincus, R., Sanderson, B. M., Simpson, I. R., and Taylor, K. E.: An evolving Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7) and Fast Track in support of future climate assessment, Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 6671–6700, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6671-2025, 2025.
Eckhardt, S., Pisso, I., Evangeliou, N., Zwaaftink, C. G., Plach, A., McConnell, J. R., Sigl, M., Ruppel, M., Zdanowicz, C., Lim, S., Chellman, N., Opel, T., Meyer, H., Steffensen, J. P., Schwikowski, M., and Stohl, A.: Revised historical Northern Hemisphere black carbon emissions based on inverse modeling of ice core records, Nat. Commun., 14, 271, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-35660-0, 2023.
Engwell, S. L., Aubry, T. J., Bonadonna, C., Mastin, L. G., Carazzo, G., Van Eaton, A. R., Jessop, D. E., Grainger, R. G., Scollo, S., Taylor, I. A., Jellinek, A. M., Schmidt, A., Biass, S., and Gouhier, M.: New insights into the relationship between mass eruption rate and volcanic column height based on the IVESPA data set, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL102633, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102633, 2023.
Fang, S.-W., Sigl, M., Toohey, M., Jungclaus, J., Zanchettin, D., and Timmreck, C.: The role of small to moderate volcanic eruptions in the early 19th century climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105307, 2023.
Fisher, B. L., Krotkov, N. A., Bhartia, P. K., Li, C., Carn, S. A., Hughes, E., and Leonard, P. J. T.: A new discrete wavelength backscattered ultraviolet algorithm for consistent volcanic SO2 retrievals from multiple satellite missions, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 5137–5153, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5137-2019, 2019.
Fuglestvedt, H. F., Zhuo, Z., Toohey, M., and Krüger, K.: Volcanic forcing of high-latitude Northern Hemisphere eruptions, Npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 7, 10, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00539-4, 2024.
Gabriel, I., Plunkett, G., Abbott, P. M., Behrens, M., Burke, A., Chellman, N., Cook, E., Fleitmann, D., Hörhold, M., Hutchison, W., McConnell, J. R., Óladóttir, B. A., Preiser-Kapeller, J., Sliwinski, J. T., Sugden, P., Twarloh, B., and Sigl, M.: Decadal-to-centennial increases of volcanic aerosols from Iceland challenge the concept of a Medieval Quiet Period, Commun. Earth Environ., 5, 194, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01350-6, 2024.
Gao, C. C., Oman, L., Robock, A., and Stenchikov, G. L.: Atmospheric volcanic loading derived from bipolar ice cores: Accounting for the spatial distribution of volcanic deposition, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007461, 2007.
Gao, C. C., Robock, A., and Ammann, C.: Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: An improved ice core-based index for climate models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010239, 2008.
Garrison, C. S., Kilburn, C. R. J., and Edwards, S. J.: The 1831 eruption of Babuyan Claro that never happened: has the source of one of the largest volcanic climate forcing events of the nineteenth century been misattributed?, J. Appl. Volcanol., 7, 8, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-018-0078-9, 2018.
Gautier, E., Savarino, J., Erbland, J., Lanciki, A., and Possenti, P.: Variability of sulfate signal in ice core records based on five replicate cores, Clim. Past, 12, 103–113, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-103-2016, 2016.
Gautier, E., Savarino, J., Hoek, J., Erbland, J., Caillon, N., Hattori, S., Yoshida, N., Albalat, E., Albarede, F., and Farquhar, J.: 2600-years of stratospheric volcanism through sulfate isotopes, Nat. Commun., 10, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08357-0, 2019.
Geng, L., Alexander, B., Cole-Dai, J., Steig, E. J., Savarino, J., Sofen, E. D., and Schauer, A. J.: Nitrogen isotopes in ice core nitrate linked to anthropogenic atmospheric acidity change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 111, 5808–5812, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1319441111, 2014.
Global Volcanism Program: Volcanoes of the World (v. 5.3.4; 30 Dec 2025), compiled by: Venzke, E., Global Volcanism Programme of the Smithsonian Institution [data set], https://doi.org/10.5479/si.GVP.VOTW5-2025.5.3, 2025.
Hammer, C. U., Clausen, H. B., and Dansgaard, W.: Greenland Ice-Sheet Evidence of Post-Glacial Volcanism and Its Climatic Impact, Nature, 288, 230–235, https://doi.org/10.1038/288230a0, 1980.
Hewett, T. A., Fay, J. A., and Hoult, D. P.: Laboratory experiments of smokestack plumes in a stable atmosphere, Atmos. Environ., 1967, 767–789, https://doi.org/10.1016/0004-6981(71)90028-X, 1971.
Hoesly, R. M., Smith, S. J., Feng, L., Klimont, Z., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Pitkanen, T., Seibert, J. J., Vu, L., Andres, R. J., Bolt, R. M., Bond, T. C., Dawidowski, L., Kholod, N., Kurokawa, J.-I., Li, M., Liu, L., Lu, Z., Moura, M. C. P., O'Rourke, P. R., and Zhang, Q.: Historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS), Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 369–408, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-369-2018, 2018.
Hutchison, W., Gabriel, I., Plunkett, G., Burke, A., Sugden, P., Innes, H., Davies, S., Moreland, W. M., Krüger, K., Wilson, R., Vinther, B. M., Dahl-Jensen, D., Freitag, J., Oppenheimer, C., Chellman, N. J., Sigl, M., and McConnell, J. R.: High-Resolution Ice-Core Analyses Identify the Eldgjá Eruption and a Cluster of Icelandic and Trans-Continental Tephras Between 936 and 943 CE, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 129, e2023JD040142, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD040142, 2024.
Hutchison, W., Sugden, P., Burke, A., Abbott, P., Ponomareva, V. V., Dirksen, O., Portnyagin, M. V., MacInnes, B., Bourgeois, J., Fitzhugh, B., Verkerk, M., Aubry, T. J., Engwell, S. L., Svensson, A., Chellman, N. J., McConnell, J. R., Davies, S., Sigl, M., and Plunkett, G.: The 1831 CE mystery eruption identified as Zavaritskii caldera, Simushir Island (Kurils), P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 122, e2416699122, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2416699122, 2025.
Innes, H. M., Hutchison, W., Sigl, M., Crick, L., Abbott, P. M., Bigler, M., Chellman, N. J., Davies, S. M., Kutterolf, S., McConnell, J. R., Severi, M., Sparks, R. S. J., Svensson, A., Wolff, E. W., Rae, J. W. B., and Burke, A.: Ice core evidence for the Los Chocoyos supereruption disputes millennial-scale climate impact, Commun. Earth Environ., 6, 137, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02095-6, 2025.
Iverson, N.A., Kalteyer, D., Dunbar, N.W., Kurbatov, A., and Yates, M.: Advancements and best practices for analysis and correlation of tephra and cryptotephra in ice, Quaternary Geochronol., 40, 45–55, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quageo.2016.09.008, 2017.
Jong, L. M., Plummer, C. T., Roberts, J. L., Moy, A. D., Curran, M. A. J., Vance, T. R., Pedro, J. B., Long, C. A., Nation, M., Mayewski, P. A., and van Ommen, T. D.: 2000 years of annual ice core data from Law Dome, East Antarctica, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3313–3328, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3313-2022, 2022.
Jongebloed, U. A., Schauer, A. J., Hattori, S., Cole-Dai, J., Larrick, C. G., Salimi, S., Edouard, S. R., Geng, L., and Alexander, B.: Sulfur isotopes quantify the impact of anthropogenic activities on industrial-era Arctic sulfate in a Greenland ice core, Environ. Res. Lett., 18, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acdc3d, 2023.
Kloss, C., Berthet, G., Sellitto, P., Ploeger, F., Bucci, S., Khaykin, S., Jégou, F., Taha, G., Thomason, L. W., Barret, B., Le Flochmoen, E., von Hobe, M., Bossolasco, A., Bègue, N., and Legras, B.: Transport of the 2017 Canadian wildfire plume to the tropics via the Asian monsoon circulation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13547–13567, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13547-2019, 2019.
Kremser, S., Thomason, L. W., von Hobe, M., Hermann, M., Deshler, T., Timmreck, C., Toohey, M., Stenke, A., Schwarz, J. P., Weigel, R., Fueglistaler, S., Prata, F. J., Vernier, J.-P., Schlager, H., Barnes, J. E., Antuña-Marrero, J.-C., Fairlie, D., Palm, M., Mahieu, E., Notholt, J., Rex, M., Bingen, C., Vanhellemont, F., Bourassa, A., Plane, J. M. C., Klocke, D., Carn, S. A., Clarisse, L., Trickl, T., Neely, R., James, A. D., Rieger, L., Wilson, J. C., and Meland, B.: Stratospheric aerosol – Observations, processes, and impact on climate, Rev. Geophys., 54, 278–335, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RG000511, 2016.
Lamb, H. H.: Volcanic Dust in the Atmosphere; with a Chronology and Assessment of Its Meteorological Significance, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. London A, 266, 425–533, 1970.
Lee, G., Burke, A., Hutchison, W., Sugden, P., Smith, C., McConnell, J. R., Sigl, M., Oppenheimer, C., Rasmussen, S. O., Steffensen, J. P., Lee, S. R., and Ahn, J.: Phasing and climate forcing potential of the Millennium Eruption of Mt. Baekdu, Commun. Earth Environ., 5, 549, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01713-z, 2024.
Li, C., Krotkov, N. A., Carn, S., Zhang, Y., Spurr, R. J. D., and Joiner, J.: New-generation NASA Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) volcanic SO2 dataset: algorithm description, initial results, and continuation with the Suomi-NPP Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS), Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 445–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-445-2017, 2017.
Li, C., Krotkov, N. A., Joiner, J., Fioletov, V., McLinden, C., Griffin, D., Leonard, P. J. T., Carn, S., Seftor, C., and Vasilkov, A.: Version 1 NOAA-20/OMPS Nadir Mapper total column SO2 product: continuation of NASA long-term global data record, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 4291–4309, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4291-2024, 2024.
Lin, J., Svensson, A., Hvidberg, C. S., Lohmann, J., Kristiansen, S., Dahl-Jensen, D., Steffensen, J. P., Rasmussen, S. O., Cook, E., Kjær, H. A., Vinther, B. M., Fischer, H., Stocker, T., Sigl, M., Bigler, M., Severi, M., Traversi, R., and Mulvaney, R.: Magnitude, frequency and climate forcing of global volcanism during the last glacial period as seen in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores (60–9 ka), Clim. Past, 18, 485–506, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-485-2022, 2022.
Luo, B.: Stratospheric aerosol data for use in CMIP6 models – data description, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, ftp://iacftp.ethz.ch/pub_read/luo/CMIP6/Readme_Data_Description.pdf (last access: 17 February 2023), 2018.
Marshall, L. R., Schmidt, A., Johnson, J. S., Mann, G. W., Lee, L. A., Rigby, R., and Carslaw, K. S.: Unknown Eruption Source Parameters Cause Large Uncertainty in Historical Volcanic Radiative Forcing Reconstructions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD033578, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033578, 2021.
Marshall, L. R., Maters, E. C., Schmidt, A., Timmreck, C., Robock, A., and Toohey, M.: Volcanic effects on climate: recent advances and future avenues, Bull. Volcanol., 84, 54, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-022-01559-3, 2022.
Mastin, L. G., Guffanti, M., Servranckx, R., Webley, P., Barsotti, S., Dean, K., Durant, A., Ewert, J. W., Neri, A., Rose, W. I., and Schneider, D.: A multidisciplinary effort to assign realistic source parameters to models of volcanic ash-cloud transport and dispersion during eruptions, J. volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 186, 10–21, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2009.01.008, 2009.
McConnell, J. R. and Edwards, R.: Coal burning leaves toxic heavy metal legacy in the Arctic, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 12140–12144, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0803564105, 2008.
McConnell, J. R., Edwards, R., Kok, G. L., Flanner, M. G., Zender, C. S., Saltzman, E. S., Banta, J. R., Pasteris, D. R., Carter, M. M., and Kahl, J. D. W.: 20th-century industrial black carbon emissions altered arctic climate forcing, Science, 317, 1381–1384, 2007.
McConnell, J. R., Burke, A., Dunbar, N. W., Kohler, P., Thomas, J. L., Arienzo, M. M., Chellman, N. J., Maselli, O. J., Sigl, M., Adkins, J. F., Baggenstos, D., Burkhart, J. F., Brook, E. J., Buizert, C., Cole-Dai, J., Fudge, T. J., Knorr, G., Graf, H. F., Grieman, M. M., Iverson, N., McGwire, K. C., Mulvaney, R., Paris, G., Rhodes, R. H., Saltzman, E. S., Severinghaus, J. P., Steffensen, J. P., Taylor, K. C., and Winckler, G.: Synchronous volcanic eruptions and abrupt climate change similar to 17.7 ka plausibly linked by stratospheric ozone depletion, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 10035–10040, 2017.
Millán, L., Santee, M. L., Lambert, A., Livesey, N. J., Werner, F., Schwartz, M. J., Pumphrey, H. C., Manney, G. L., Wang, Y., Su, H., Wu, L., Read, W. G., and Froidevaux, L.: The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai hydration of the stratosphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL099381, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099381, 2022.
Millward, F. J., Webster, H. N., and Johnson, C. G.: Modeling wind-blown umbrella clouds in Lagrangian Dispersion Models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 128, e2023JD039115. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039115, 2023.
Morton, B. R., Taylor, G. I. and Turner, J. S.: Turbulent gravitational convection from maintained and instantaneous sources, P. Roy. Soc. London A, 234, 1–23, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1956.0011, 1956.
Moseid, K. O., Schulz, M., Eichler, A., Schwikowski, M., McConnell, J. R., Olivié, D., Criscitiello, A. S., Kreutz, K. J., and Legrand, M.: Using Ice Cores to Evaluate CMIP6 Aerosol Concentrations Over the Historical Era, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 127, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD036105, 2022.
Murphy, D. M., Abou-Ghanem, M., Cziczo, D. J., Froyd, K. D., Jacquot, J., Lawler, M. J., Maloney, C., Plane, J. M. C., Ross, M. N., Schill, G. P., and Shen, X.: Metals from spacecraft reentry in stratospheric aerosol particles, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 120, e2313374120, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2313374120, 2023.
Murphy, D. M., Abou-Ghanem, M., Ahern, A. T., Brock, C. A., Cziczo, D. J., Hintsa, E. J., Jacquot, J. L., Lawler, M. J., Lyu, M., Moore, F. L., Robinson, M. A., Roberts, J. M., Schill, G. P., Shen, X., Thornberry, T. D., and Veres, P. R.: Perchlorate in stratospheric aerosol particles, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 122, e2512783122, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2512783122, 2025.
Muser, L. O., Hoshyaripour, G. A., Bruckert, J., Horváth, Á., Malinina, E., Wallis, S., Prata, F. J., Rozanov, A., von Savigny, C., Vogel, H., and Vogel, B.: Particle aging and aerosol–radiation interaction affect volcanic plume dispersion: evidence from the Raikoke 2019 eruption, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15015–15036, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15015-2020, 2020.
Naik, V., Durack, P. J., Nicholls, Z., Buontempo, C., Dunne, J. P., Hewitt, H. T., Macintosh, C., and O'Rourke, E.: Climate models need more frequent releases of input data – here's how to do it, Nature, 644, 874–875, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-025-02642-3, 2025.
Narcisi, B., Petit, J. R., Delmonte, B., Batanova, V., and Savarino, J.: Multiple sources for tephra from AD 1259 volcanic signal in Antarctic ice cores, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 210, 164–174, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.03.005, 2019.
Neely III, R. R. and Schmidt, A.: VolcanEESM (Volcanic Emissions for Earth System Models): Volcanic sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions database from 1850 to present. Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, date of citation. http://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/bfbd5ec825fa422f9a858b14ae7b2a0d (last access: 10 October 2026), 2016.
Newhall, C. G. and Self, S.: The volcanic explosivity index (VEI) an estimate of explosive magnitude for historical volcanism, J. Geophys. Res., 87, 1231–1238, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC087iC02p01231, 1982.
Niemeier, U., Timmreck, C., and Krüger, K.: Revisiting the Agung 1963 volcanic forcing – impact of one or two eruptions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10379–10390, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10379-2019, 2019.
Papale, P.: Global time-size distribution of volcanic eruptions on Earth, Sci. Rep.-Uk, 8, 6838, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-25286-y, 2018.
Papale, P., Garg, D., and Marzocchi, W.: Global Rates of Subaerial Volcanism on Earth, Front. Earth Sci., 10, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.922160, 2022.
Pasteris, D. R., McConnell, J. R., Das, S. B., Criscitiello, A. S., Evans, M. J., Maselli, O. J., Sigl, M., and Layman, L.: Seasonally resolved ice core records from West Antarctica indicate a sea ice source of sea-salt aerosol and a biomass burning source of ammonium, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 9168–9182, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020720, 2014.
Pearson, C., Sigl, M., Burke, A., Davies, S., Kurbatov, A., Severi, M., Cole-Dai, J., Innes, H., Albert, P. G., and Helmick, M.: Geochemical ice-core constraints on the timing and climatic impact of Aniakchak II (1628 BCE) and Thera (Minoan) volcanic eruptions, PNAS Nexus, https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac048, 2022.
Peterson, D. A., Berman, M. T., Fromm, M. D., Servranckx, R., Julstrom, W. J., Hyer, E. J., Campbell, J. R., McHardy, T. M., and Lambert, A.: Worldwide inventory reveals the frequency and variability of pyrocumulonimbus and stratospheric smoke plumes during 2013–2023, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 8, 325, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01188-5, 2025.
Piva, S. B., Barker, S. J., Iverson, N. A., Winton, V. H. L., Bertler, N. A. N., Sigl, M., Wilson, C. J. N., Dunbar, N. W., Kurbatov, A. V., Carter, L., Charlier, B. L. A., and Newnham, R. M.: Volcanic glass from the 1.8 ka Taupo eruption (New Zealand) detected in Antarctic ice at ∼ 230 CE, Sci. Rep.-Uk, 13, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42602-3, 2023.
Plummer, C. T., Curran, M. A. J., van Ommen, T. D., Rasmussen, S. O., Moy, A. D., Vance, T. R., Clausen, H. B., Vinther, B. M., and Mayewski, P. A.: An independently dated 2000-yr volcanic record from Law Dome, East Antarctica, including a new perspective on the dating of the 1450s CE eruption of Kuwae, Vanuatu, Clim. Past, 8, 1929–1940, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1929-2012, 2012.
Plunkett, G., Sigl, M., McConnell, J. R., Pilcher, J. R., and Chellman, N. J.: The significance of volcanic ash in Greenland ice cores during the Common Era, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 301, 107936, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107936, 2023.
Prata, F., Prata, A. T., Tanner, R., Grainger, R. G., Borgas, M., and Aubry, T. J.: The radial spreading of volcanic umbrella clouds deduced from satellite measurements, Volcanica, 8, 1–29. https://doi.org/10.30909/vol.08.01.0129, 2025.
Quaglia, I., Timmreck, C., Niemeier, U., Visioni, D., Pitari, G., Brodowsky, C., Brühl, C., Dhomse, S. S., Franke, H., Laakso, A., Mann, G. W., Rozanov, E., and Sukhodolov, T.: Interactive stratospheric aerosol models' response to different amounts and altitudes of SO2 injection during the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 921–948, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-921-2023, 2023.
Rhodes, R. H., Faïn, X., Brook, E. J., McConnell, J. R., Maselli, O. J., Sigl, M., Edwards, J., Buizert, C., Blunier, T., Chappellaz, J., and Freitag, J.: Local artifacts in ice core methane records caused by layered bubble trapping and in situ production: a multi-site investigation, Clim. Past, 12, 1061–1077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1061-2016, 2016.
Robock, A. and Free, M. P.: Ice Cores as an Index of Global Volcanism from 1850 to the Present, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 100, 11549–11567, https://doi.org/10.1029/95JD00825, 1995.
Rossi, E., Bonadonna, C., and Degruyter, W.: A new strategy for the estimation of plume height from clast dispersal in various atmospheric and eruptive conditions, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 505, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2018.10.007, 2019.
Rougier, J., Sparks, S. R., and Cashman, K. V.: Global recording rates for large eruptions, J. Appl. Volcanol., 5, 11, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-016-0051-4, 2016.
Schallock, J., Brühl, C., Bingen, C., Höpfner, M., Rieger, L., and Lelieveld, J.: Reconstructing volcanic radiative forcing since 1990, using a comprehensive emission inventory and spatially resolved sulfur injections from satellite data in a chemistry-climate model, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1169–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1169-2023, 2023.
Self, S. and Rampino, M. R.: The 1963–1964 eruption of Agung volcano (Bali, Indonesia), Bull. Volcanol., 74, 1521–1536, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-012-0615-z, 2012.
Sellitto, P., Podglajen, A., Belhadji, R., Boichu, M., Carboni, E., Cuesta, J., Duchamp, C., Kloss, C., Siddans, R., Bègue, N., Blarel, L., Jegou, F., Khaykin, S., Renard, J.-B., and Legras, B.: The unexpected radiative impact of the Hunga Tonga eruption of 15th January 2022, Commun. Earth Environ., 3, 288, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00618-z, 2022.
Sigl, M. and McConnell, J. R.: NEEM-2011-S1 ice-core aerosol record (conductivity, NH4, NO3, BC, Na, Mg, S, Ca, Mn, Sr, Ce, acidity) in NW-Greenland at 2 cm resolution from 86–1997 CE on the annual-layer counted NS1 2011 chronology, PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.94055372, 2022.
Sigl, M. and McConnell, J. R.: D4i Greenland ice-core non-sea-salt sulfur concentrations and calculated volcanic sulfate deposition (1733–1900 CE), PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.960977, 2023.
Sigl, M. and Toohey, M.: Volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections from 500 BCE to 1900 CE, eVolv2k_version4, PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.97196891, 2024.
Sigl, M., McConnell, J. R., Layman, L., Maselli, O., McGwire, K., Pasteris, D., Dahl-Jensen, D., Steffensen, J. P., Vinther, B., Edwards, R., Mulvaney, R., and Kipfstuhl, S.: A new bipolar ice core record of volcanism from WAIS Divide and NEEM and implications for climate forcing of the last 2000 years, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1151–1169, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018603, 2013.
Sigl, M., McConnell, J. R., Toohey, M., Curran, M., Das, S. B., Edwards, R., Isaksson, E., Kawamura, K., Kipfstuhl, S., Krüger, K., Layman, L., Maselli, O. J., Motizuki, Y., Motoyama, H., Pasteris, D. R., and Severi, M.: Insights from Antarctica on volcanic forcing during the Common Era, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 693–697, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2293, 2014.
Sigl, M., Winstrup, M., McConnell, J. R., Welten, K. C., Plunkett, G., Ludlow, F., Büntgen, U., Caffee, M., Chellman, N., Dahl-Jensen, D., Fischer, H., Kipfstuhl, S., Kostick, C., Maselli, O. J., Mekhaldi, F., Mulvaney, R., Muscheler, R., Pasteris, D. R., Pilcher, J. R., Salzer, M., Schüpbach, S., Steffensen, J. P., Vinther, B. M., and Woodruff, T. E.: Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years, Nature, 523, 543–549, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14565, 2015.
Sigl, M., Abram, N. J., Gabrieli, J., Jenk, T. M., Osmont, D., and Schwikowski, M.: 19th century glacier retreat in the Alps preceded the emergence of industrial black carbon deposition on high-alpine glaciers, The Cryosphere, 12, 3311–3331, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3311-2018, 2018.
Sigl, M., Toohey, M., McConnell, J. R., Cole-Dai, J., and Severi, M.: Volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth during the Holocene (past 11 500 years) from a bipolar ice-core array, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3167–3196, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3167-2022, 2022.
Sigl, M., McConnell, J. R., and Toohey, M.: Volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection between 1733 and 1895 CE based on the eVolv2k-plus-D4i ice-core eruption catalogue, PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.960975, 2023.
Solomon, S., Ivy, D. J., Kinnison, D., Mills, M. J., Neely, R. R., and Schmidt, A.: Emergence of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer, Science, 353, 269–274, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aae0061, 2016.
Staunton-Sykes, J., Aubry, T. J., Shin, Y. M., Weber, J., Marshall, L. R., Luke Abraham, N., Archibald, A., and Schmidt, A.: Co-emission of volcanic sulfur and halogens amplifies volcanic effective radiative forcing, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9009–9029, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9009-2021, 2021.
Tabazadeh, A. and Turco, R. P.: Stratospheric Chlorine Injection by Volcanic Eruptions: HCl Scavenging and Implications for Ozone, Science, 260, 1082–1086, 1993.
Taylor, I. A., Preston, J., Carboni, E., Mather, T. A., Grainger, R. G., Theys, N., Hidalgo, S., and McCormick Kilbride, B.: Exploring the utility of IASI for monitoring volcanic SO2 emissions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 5588–5606, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027109, 2018.
Textor, C., Graf, H.-F., Herzog, M., and Oberhuber, J. M.: Injection of gases into the stratosphere by explosive volcanic eruptions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002987, 2003.
Theys, N., Fioletov, V., Li, C., De Smedt, I., Lerot, C., McLinden, C., Krotkov, N., Griffin, D., Clarisse, L., Hedelt, P., Loyola, D., Wagner, T., Kumar, V., Innes, A., Ribas, R., Hendrick, F., Vlietinck, J., Brenot, H., and Van Roozendael, M.: A sulfur dioxide Covariance-Based Retrieval Algorithm (COBRA): application to TROPOMI reveals new emission sources, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16727–16744, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16727-2021, 2021.
Thomas, E. R., Vladimirova, D. O., Tetzner, D. R., Emanuelsson, B. D., Chellman, N., Dixon, D. A., Goosse, H., Grieman, M. M., King, A. C. F., Sigl, M., Udy, D. G., Vance, T. R., Winski, D. A., Winton, V. H. L., Bertler, N. A. N., Hori, A., Laluraj, C. M., McConnell, J. R., Motizuki, Y., Takahashi, K., Motoyama, H., Nakai, Y., Schwanck, F., Simões, J. C., Lindau, F. G. L., Severi, M., Traversi, R., Wauthy, S., Xiao, C., Yang, J., Mosely-Thompson, E., Khodzher, T. V., Golobokova, L. P., and Ekaykin, A. A.: Ice core chemistry database: an Antarctic compilation of sodium and sulfate records spanning the past 2000 years, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2517–2532, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2517-2023, 2023.
Thordarson, T. and Self, S.: The Laki (Skaftár Fires) and Grímsvötn eruptions in 1783–1785, Bull. Volcanol., 55, 233–263, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00624353, 1993.
Thordarson, T., Self, S., Oskarsson, N., and Hulsebosch, T.: Sulfur, chlorine, and fluorine degassing and atmospheric loading by the 1783–1784 AD Laki (Skaftár Fires) eruption in Iceland, Bull. Volcanol., 58, 205–225, https://doi.org/10.1007/s004450050136, 1996.
Thordarson, Th. and Self, S.: Atmospheric and environmental effects of the 1783–1784 Laki eruption: A review and reassessment, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4011, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD002042, 2003.
Timmreck, C., Mann, G. W., Aquila, V., Hommel, R., Lee, L. A., Schmidt, A., Brühl, C., Carn, S., Chin, M., Dhomse, S. S., Diehl, T., English, J. M., Mills, M. J., Neely, R., Sheng, J., Toohey, M., and Weisenstein, D.: The Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (ISA-MIP): motivation and experimental design, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2581–2608, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2581-2018, 2018.
Toohey, M. and Sigl, M.: Volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth from 500 BCE to 1900 CE, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 809–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-809-2017, 2017.
Toohey, M. and Sigl, M.: Reconstructed volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth, 500 BCE to 1900 CE, version 3, World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ [data set], https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/eVolv2k_v3, 2019.
Toohey, M., Krüger, K., Niemeier, U., and Timmreck, C.: The influence of eruption season on the global aerosol evolution and radiative impact of tropical volcanic eruptions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 12351–12367, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-12351-2011, 2011.
Toohey, M., Krüger, K., and Timmreck, C.: Volcanic sulfate deposition to Greenland and Antarctica: A modeling sensitivity study, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 4788–4800, 2013.
Toohey, M., Krüger, K., Sigl, M., Stordal, F., and Svensen, H.: Climatic and societal impacts of a volcanic double event at the dawn of the Middle Ages, Clim. Change, 136, 401–412, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1648-7, 2016.
Verkerk, M., Aubry, T. J., Smith, C., Hopcroft, P. O., Sigl, M., Tierney, J. E., Anchukaitis, K., Osman, M., Schmidt, A., and Toohey, M.: Using reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol and climate models to produce large ensemble simulations of Holocene temperature, Clim. Past, 21, 1755–1778, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1755-2025, 2025.
Vernier, J.-P., Fairlie, T. D., Deshler, T., Natarajan, M., Knepp, T., Foster, K., Wienhold, F. G., Bedka, K. M., Thomason, L., and Trepte, C.: In situ and space-based observations of the Kelud volcanic plume: The persistence of ash in the lower stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 11104–11118, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025344, 2016.
Vernier, J.-P., Aubry, T. J., Timmreck, C., Schmidt, A., Clarisse, L., Prata, F., Theys, N., Prata, A. T., Mann, G., Choi, H., Carn, S., Rigby, R., Loughlin, S. C., and Stevenson, J. A.: The 2019 Raikoke eruption as a testbed used by the Volcano Response group for rapid assessment of volcanic atmospheric impacts, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5765–5782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5765-2024, 2024.
Visioni, D., MacMartin, D. G., Kravitz, B., Boucher, O., Jones, A., Lurton, T., Martine, M., Mills, M. J., Nabat, P., Niemeier, U., Séférian, R., and Tilmes, S.: Identifying the sources of uncertainty in climate model simulations of solar radiation modification with the G6sulfur and G6solar Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10039–10063, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, 2021.
Wells, A. F., Jones, A., Osborne, M., Damany-Pearce, L., Partridge, D. G., and Haywood, J. M.: Including ash in UKESM1 model simulations of the Raikoke volcanic eruption reveals improved agreement with observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3985–4007, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3985-2023, 2023.
Wilson, L., Sparks, R. S. J., Huang, T. C., and Watkins, N. D.: The control of volcanic column heights by eruption energetics and dynamics, J. Geophys. Res., 83, 1829–1836, https://doi.org/10.1029/JB083iB04p01829, 1978.
Woodhouse, M. J., Hogg, A. J., Phillips, J. C., and Sparks, R. S. J.: Interaction between volcanic plumes and wind during the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, Iceland, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid Earth, 118, 92–109, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JB009592, 2013.
Yu, P., Portmann, R. W., Peng, Y., Liu, C.-C., Zhu, Y., Asher, E., Bai, Z., Lu, Y., Bian, J., Mills, M., Schmidt, A., Rosenlof, K. H., and Toon, O. B.: Radiative forcing from the 2014–2022 volcanic and wildfire injections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL103791, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103791, 2023.
Zambri, B., Robock, A., Mills, M. J., and Schmidt, A.: Modeling the 1783–1784 Laki eruption in Iceland: 1. Aerosol evolution and global stratospheric circulation impacts, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 6750–6769, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029553, 2019.
Zeng, Z. C., Clarisse, L., Franco, B., Clerbaux, C., Theys, N., Qi, C., Lee, L., Zhu, L., Hu, X., Gu, M., and Zhang, P.: Volcanic Sulfur Dioxide Monitored from a Constellation of FengYun Hyperspectral Infrared Sounders in Dawn-dusk, Mid-morning, and Afternoon Sun-synchronous Orbits, Remote Sens. Environ., 331, 115057, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2025.115057, 2025.
Zhai, S. T., Swanson, W., McConnell, J. R., Chellman, N., Opel, T., Sigl, M., Meyer, H., Wang, X., Jaeglé, L., Stutz, J., Dibb, J. E., Fujita, K., and Alexander, B.: Implications of Snowpack Reactive Bromine Production for Arctic Ice Core Bromine Preservation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 128, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039257, 2023.
Zhu, Y., Toon, O. B., Jensen, E. J., Bardeen, C. G., Mills, M. J., Tolbert, M. A., Yu, P., and Woods, S.: Persisting volcanic ash particles impact stratospheric SO2 lifetime and aerosol optical properties, Nat. Commun., 11, 4526, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18352-5, 2020.
Zielinski, G. A.: Stratospheric Loading and Optical Depth Estimates of Explosive Volcanism over the Last 2100 Years Derived from the Greenland-Ice-Sheet-Project-2 Ice Core, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 100, 20937–20955, 1995.
Short summary
We document the historical (1750–2023) volcanic sulfur dioxide emission dataset created for phase 7 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, which is a set of coordinated climate model experiments run by modelling center worldwide. Our dataset underpins the stratospheric aerosol optical property dataset which will be used as input by most climate models. However, models with interactive stratospheric aerosol capability can directly input our emission dataset to run CMIP7 experiments.
We document the historical (1750–2023) volcanic sulfur dioxide emission dataset created for...
