The updated Multi-Model Large Ensemble Archive and the Climate Variability Diagnostics Package: new tools for the study of climate variability and change

Maher, Nicola; Phillips, Adam S.; Deser, Clara; Wills, Robert C. Jnglin; Lehner, Flavio; Fasullo, John; Caron, Julie M.; Brunner, Lukas; Beyerle, Urs; Jeffree, Jemma

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6341-2025

Articles | Volume 18, issue 18

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6341-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6341-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 18, issue 18

Methods for assessment of models

|

25 Sep 2025

Methods for assessment of models |

| 25 Sep 2025

The updated Multi-Model Large Ensemble Archive and the Climate Variability Diagnostics Package: new tools for the study of climate variability and change

Nicola Maher, Adam S. Phillips, Clara Deser, Robert C. Jnglin Wills, Flavio Lehner, John Fasullo, Julie M. Caron, Lukas Brunner, Urs Beyerle, and Jemma Jeffree

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6341-2025-supplement

Data sets

MMLEAv2 and CVDPv6 Publication Code and Figures N. Maher et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15589035

Multi-Model Large Ensemble Archive version 2 NCAR https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/d651039/

Model code and software

Code: Current CVDP version: 6.1.0 (released 14 May 2025) NCAR https://www.cesm.ucar.edu/projects/cvdp/code

Short summary

We present the new Multi-Model Large Ensemble Archive (MMLEAv2) and introduce the newly updated Climate Variability Diagnostics Package version 6 (CVDPv6), which is designed specifically for use with large ensembles. For highly variable quantities, we demonstrate that a model might perform evaluation poorly or favourably compared to the single realisation of the world that the observations represent, highlighting the need for large ensembles for model evaluation.