Articles | Volume 18, issue 17
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| Highlight paper
| 
05 Sep 2025
Model evaluation paper | Highlight paper |
| 05 Sep 2025
| 05 Sep 2025
flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions
Benjamin M. Sanderson
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
CICERO International Center for Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Victor Brovkin
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Rosie A. Fisher
CICERO International Center for Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
David Hohn
GEOMAR, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany
Tatiana Ilyina
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Modeling the carbon cycle in the Earth system, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Geesthacht, Germany
Chris D. Jones
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Torben Koenigk
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden
Charles Koven
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
Hongmei Li
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Geesthacht, Germany
David M. Lawrence
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
Peter Lawrence
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
Spencer Liddicoat
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Andrew H. MacDougall
St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, NS, Canada
Nadine Mengis
GEOMAR, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany
Zebedee Nicholls
School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Climate Resource, Fitzroy, Australia
Eleanor O'Rourke
CMIP Project Office, Harwell, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom
Anastasia Romanou
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, USA
Marit Sandstad
CICERO International Center for Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Jörg Schwinger
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Roland Séférian
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Toulouse, France
Lori T. Sentman
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Princeton, NJ, USA
Isla R. Simpson
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
Chris Smith
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Priestley Centre for Climate Futures, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Norman J. Steinert
CICERO International Center for Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Abigail L. S. Swann
Atmospheric and Climate Science, College of the Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Jerry Tjiputra
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Tilo Ziehn
CSIRO Environment, Aspendale, Australia
Data sets
benmsanderson/esm-deck: GMD revised version B. Sanderson et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15267556
Model code and software
benmsanderson/esm-deck: GMD revised version B. Sanderson et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15267556
Executive editor
As a core contribution to CMIP7, this paper offers an idealized yet insightful projection of climate system behavior during the net-zero transition. Its policy relevance is clear, as it effectively links human-driven emission mitigation efforts with their climatic consequences.
As a core contribution to CMIP7, this paper offers an idealized yet insightful projection of...
Short summary
This study investigates how climate models warm in response to simplified carbon emissions trajectories, refining the understanding of climate reversibility and commitment. Metrics are defined for warming response to cumulative emissions and for the cessation of emissions or ramp-down to net-zero and net-negative levels. Results indicate that previous concentration-driven experiments may have overstated the Zero Emissions Commitment due to emissions rates exceeding historical levels.
This study investigates how climate models warm in response to simplified carbon emissions...
