Articles | Volume 18, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3453-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3453-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
13 Jun 2025
Development and technical paper |
| 13 Jun 2025
| 13 Jun 2025
Improving winter condition simulations in SURFEX-TEB v9.0 with a multi-layer snow model and ice
Gabriel Colas
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
François Bouttier
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Ludovic Bouilloud
Météo-France, Toulouse, France
Laura Pavan
Météo-France, Toulouse, France
Virve Karsisto
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Related authors
Gabriel Colas, Valéry Masson, François Bouttier, and Ludovic Bouilloud
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2777, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2777, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Each vehicle from road traffic is a source of heat and an obstacle that induce wind when it passes. It directly impacts the local atmospheric conditions and the road surface temperature. These impacts are included in the numerical model of the Town Energy Balance, used to simulate local conditions in urbanised environments. Simulations show that road traffic has a significant impact on the road surface temperature up to several degrees, and on local variables.
Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, and Olivier Nuissier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2613–2628, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2613-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2613-2025, 2025
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This paper investigates the relationship between changes in weather forecasts and predictability, which has so far been considered weak. By studying how weather scenarios persist over successive forecasts, it appears that conclusions can be drawn about forecasts' reliability.
Gabriel Colas, Valéry Masson, François Bouttier, and Ludovic Bouilloud
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2777, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2777, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Each vehicle from road traffic is a source of heat and an obstacle that induce wind when it passes. It directly impacts the local atmospheric conditions and the road surface temperature. These impacts are included in the numerical model of the Town Energy Balance, used to simulate local conditions in urbanised environments. Simulations show that road traffic has a significant impact on the road surface temperature up to several degrees, and on local variables.
William Morrison, Dana Looschelders, Jonnathan Céspedes, Bernie Claxton, Marc-Antoine Drouin, Jean-Charles Dupont, Aurélien Faucheux, Martial Haeffelin, Christopher C. Holst, Simone Kotthaus, Valéry Masson, James McGregor, Jeremy Price, Matthias Zeeman, Sue Grimmond, and Andreas Christen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-167, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-167, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
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We conducted research using sophisticated wind sensors to better understand wind patterns in Paris. By installing these sensors across the city, we gathered detailed data on wind speeds and directions from 2022 to 2024. This information helps improve weather and climate models, making them more accurate for city environments. Our findings offer valuable insights for scientists studying urban air and weather, improving predictions and understanding of city-scale atmospheric processes.
Cloé David, Clotilde Augros, Benoît Vié, François Bouttier, and Tony Le Bastard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-685, 2025
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Simulations of storm characteristics and associated radar signatures were improved, especially under the freezing level, using an advanced cloud scheme. Discrepancies between observations and forecasts at and above the melting layer highlighted issues in both the radar forward operator and the microphysics. To overcome part of these issues, different parametrizations of the operator were suggested. This work aligns with the future integration of polarimetric data into assimilation systems.
Robert Schoetter, Robin James Hogan, Cyril Caliot, and Valéry Masson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 405–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, 2025
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Radiation is relevant to the atmospheric impact on people and infrastructure in cities as it can influence the urban heat island, building energy consumption, and human thermal comfort. A new urban radiation model, assuming a more realistic form of urban morphology, is coupled to the urban climate model Town Energy Balance (TEB). The new TEB is evaluated with a reference radiation model for a variety of urban morphologies, and an improvement in the simulated radiative observables is found.
Aurélien Mirebeau, Cécile de Munck, Bertrand Bonan, Christine Delire, Aude Lemonsu, Valéry Masson, and Stephan Weber
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-233, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-233, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The greening of cities is recommended to limit the effects of climate change. In particular, green roofs can provide numerous environmental benefits, such as urban cooling, water retention and carbon sequestration. The aim of this research is to develop a new module for calculating green roof CO2 fluxes within a model that can already simulate hydrological and thermal processes of such roofs. The calibration and evaluation of this module take advantage of long term experimental data.
Martial Haeffelin, Jean-François Ribaud, Jonnathan Céspedes, Jean-Charles Dupont, Aude Lemonsu, Valéry Masson, Tim Nagel, and Simone Kotthaus
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 14101–14122, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-14101-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-14101-2024, 2024
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This study highlights how the state of the urban atmospheric boundary layer impacts urban park cooling effect intensity at night. Under summertime heat wave conditions, the urban atmosphere becomes stable at night, which inhibits turbulent motions. Under those specific conditions, urban parks and woods cool much more efficiently than the surrounding built-up neighbourhoods in the evening and through the night, providing cooler air temperatures by 4 to 6° C depending on park size.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
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Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Virve Eveliina Karsisto
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4837–4853, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4837-2024, 2024
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RoadSurf is an open-source library that contains functions from the Finnish Meteorological Institute’s road weather model. The evaluation of the library shows that it is well suited for making road surface temperature forecasts. The evaluation was done by making forecasts for about 400 road weather stations in Finland with the library. Accurate forecasts help road authorities perform salting and plowing operations at the right time and keep roads safe for drivers.
Erwan Jézéquel, Frédéric Blondel, and Valéry Masson
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 97–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-97-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-97-2024, 2024
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Wind turbine wakes affect the production and lifecycle of downstream turbines. They can be predicted with the dynamic wake meandering (DWM) method. In this paper, the authors break down the velocity and turbulence in the wake of a wind turbine into several terms. They show that it is implicitly assumed in the DWM that some of these terms are neglected. With high-fidelity simulations, it is shown that this can lead to some errors, in particular for the maximum turbulence added by the wake.
Erwan Jézéquel, Frédéric Blondel, and Valéry Masson
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 119–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-119-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-119-2024, 2024
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Analytical models allow us to quickly compute the decreased power output and lifetime induced by wakes in a wind farm. This is achieved by evaluating the modified velocity and turbulence in the wake. In this work, we present a new model based on the velocity and turbulence breakdowns presented in Part 1. This new model is physically based, allows us to compute the whole turbulence profile (rather than the maximum value) and is built to take atmospheric stability into account.
Juliette Godet, Olivier Payrastre, Pierre Javelle, and François Bouttier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3355–3377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, 2023
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This article results from a master's research project which was part of a natural hazards programme developed by the French Ministry of Ecological Transition. The objective of this work was to investigate a possible way to improve the operational flash flood warning service by adding rainfall forecasts upstream of the forecasting chain. The results showed that the tested forecast product, which is new and experimental, has a real added value compared to other classical forecast products.
Maryse Charpentier-Noyer, Daniela Peredo, Axelle Fleury, Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, Eric Gaume, Pierre Nicolle, Olivier Payrastre, and Maria-Helena Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, 2023
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This paper proposes a methodological framework designed for event-based evaluation in the context of an intense flash-flood event. The evaluation adopts the point of view of end users, with a focus on the anticipation of exceedances of discharge thresholds. With a study of rainfall forecasts, a discharge evaluation and a detailed look at the forecast hydrographs, the evaluation framework should help in drawing robust conclusions about the usefulness of new rainfall ensemble forecasts.
Mathew Lipson, Sue Grimmond, Martin Best, Winston T. L. Chow, Andreas Christen, Nektarios Chrysoulakis, Andrew Coutts, Ben Crawford, Stevan Earl, Jonathan Evans, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Bert G. Heusinkveld, Je-Woo Hong, Jinkyu Hong, Leena Järvi, Sungsoo Jo, Yeon-Hee Kim, Simone Kotthaus, Keunmin Lee, Valéry Masson, Joseph P. McFadden, Oliver Michels, Wlodzimierz Pawlak, Matthias Roth, Hirofumi Sugawara, Nigel Tapper, Erik Velasco, and Helen Claire Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5157–5178, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5157-2022, 2022
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We describe a new openly accessible collection of atmospheric observations from 20 cities around the world, capturing 50 site years. The observations capture local meteorology (temperature, humidity, wind, etc.) and the energy fluxes between the land and atmosphere (e.g. radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes). These observations can be used to improve our understanding of urban climate processes and to test the accuracy of urban climate models.
Jérémy Bernard, Erwan Bocher, Elisabeth Le Saux Wiederhold, François Leconte, and Valéry Masson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7505–7532, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7505-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7505-2022, 2022
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OpenStreetMap is a collaborative project aimed at creaing a free dataset containing topographical information. Since these data are available worldwide, they can be used as standard data for geoscience studies. However, most buildings miss the height information that constitutes key data for numerous fields (urban climate, noise propagation, air pollution). In this work, the building height is estimated using statistical modeling using indicators that characterize the building's environment.
Samira Khodayar, Silvio Davolio, Paolo Di Girolamo, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Emmanouil Flaounas, Nadia Fourrie, Keun-Ok Lee, Didier Ricard, Benoit Vie, Francois Bouttier, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, and Veronique Ducrocq
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17051–17078, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17051-2021, 2021
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Heavy precipitation (HP) constitutes a major meteorological threat in the western Mediterranean. Every year, recurrent events affect the area with fatal consequences. Despite this being a well-known issue, open questions still remain. The understanding of the underlying mechanisms and the modeling representation of the events must be improved. In this article we present the most recent lessons learned from the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX).
Olivier Caumont, Marc Mandement, François Bouttier, Judith Eeckman, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Alexane Lovat, Olivier Nuissier, and Olivier Laurantin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1135–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1135-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1135-2021, 2021
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This study focuses on the heavy precipitation event of 14 and 15 October 2018, which caused deadly flash floods in the Aude basin in south-western France.
The case is studied from a meteorological point of view using various operational numerical weather prediction systems, as well as a unique combination of observations from both standard and personal weather stations. The peculiarities of this case compared to other cases of Mediterranean heavy precipitation events are presented.
Robert Schoetter, Yu Ting Kwok, Cécile de Munck, Kevin Ka Lun Lau, Wai Kin Wong, and Valéry Masson
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5609–5643, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5609-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5609-2020, 2020
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Cities change the local meteorological conditions, e.g. by increasing air temperature, which can negatively impact humans and infrastructure. The urban climate model TEB is able to calculate the meteorological conditions in low- and mid-rise cities since it interacts with the lowest level of an atmospheric model. Here, a multi-layer coupling of TEB is introduced to enable modelling the urban climate of cities with many skyscrapers; the new version is tested for the high-rise city of Hong Kong.
Emilie Redon, Aude Lemonsu, and Valéry Masson
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 385–399, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-385-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-385-2020, 2020
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The TEB urban climate model simulates micrometeorological conditions from the neighborhood scale to the entire city. It has recently been improved to more realistically address the radiative effects of trees within the urban canopy. This article presents additional developments that have been made to better represent the effect of trees on heat and moisture exchange, as well as on air flow in the streets, and on thermal comfort.
Franck Auguste, Géraldine Réa, Roberto Paoli, Christine Lac, Valery Masson, and Daniel Cariolle
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2607–2633, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2607-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2607-2019, 2019
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The numerical implementation of an immersed boundary method in the atmospheric solver Meso-NH is presented. This technique models fluid–solid interaction and allows for the simulation of urban flows by considering buildings to be part of the resolved scales. This study constitutes a first robust step towards a better understanding of the interactions between weather and cities and better predictions of such interactions.
Xenia Stavropulos-Laffaille, Katia Chancibault, Jean-Marc Brun, Aude Lemonsu, Valéry Masson, Aaron Boone, and Hervé Andrieu
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4175–4194, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4175-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4175-2018, 2018
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Integrating vegetation in urban planning is promoted to counter steer potential impacts of climate and demographic changes. Assessing the multiple benefits of such strategies on the urban microclimate requires a detailed coupling of both the water and energy transfers in numerical tools. In this respect, the representation of water-related processes in the urban subsoil of the existing model TEB-Veg has been improved. The new model thus allows a better evaluation of urban adaptation strategies.
Christine Lac, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Valéry Masson, Jean-Pierre Pinty, Pierre Tulet, Juan Escobar, Maud Leriche, Christelle Barthe, Benjamin Aouizerats, Clotilde Augros, Pierre Aumond, Franck Auguste, Peter Bechtold, Sarah Berthet, Soline Bielli, Frédéric Bosseur, Olivier Caumont, Jean-Martial Cohard, Jeanne Colin, Fleur Couvreux, Joan Cuxart, Gaëlle Delautier, Thibaut Dauhut, Véronique Ducrocq, Jean-Baptiste Filippi, Didier Gazen, Olivier Geoffroy, François Gheusi, Rachel Honnert, Jean-Philippe Lafore, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Quentin Libois, Thibaut Lunet, Céline Mari, Tomislav Maric, Patrick Mascart, Maxime Mogé, Gilles Molinié, Olivier Nuissier, Florian Pantillon, Philippe Peyrillé, Julien Pergaud, Emilie Perraud, Joris Pianezze, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Didier Ricard, Evelyne Richard, Sébastien Riette, Quentin Rodier, Robert Schoetter, Léo Seyfried, Joël Stein, Karsten Suhre, Marie Taufour, Odile Thouron, Sandra Turner, Antoine Verrelle, Benoît Vié, Florian Visentin, Vincent Vionnet, and Philippe Wautelet
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1929–1969, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1929-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1929-2018, 2018
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This paper presents the Meso-NH model version 5.4, which is an atmospheric non-hydrostatic research model that is applied on synoptic to turbulent scales. The model includes advanced numerical techniques and state-of-the-art physics parameterization schemes. It has been expanded to provide capabilities for a range of Earth system prediction applications such as chemistry and aerosols, electricity and lightning, hydrology, wildland fires, volcanic eruptions, and cyclones with ocean coupling.
Jeanne Colin, Christine Lac, Valéry Massion, and Alexandre Paci
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-226, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-226, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
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The meteorological model Meso-NH is adapted in order to be run in DNS mode (Direct Numerical Simulation) to represent atmospheric flows generated in laboratory. The implementations we performed are validated against exact solutions and experimental data. Thus, Meso-NH can now be used as a complement to laboratory experiments, to complete and/or extend the data. The ability to run it in DNS also brings new prospects as it offers a new framework to test parametrizations of fine-scale processes.
Marie Mazoyer, Christine Lac, Odile Thouron, Thierry Bergot, Valery Masson, and Luc Musson-Genon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13017–13035, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13017-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13017-2017, 2017
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Large eddy simulations of a radiation fog event occurring during the ParisFog experiment have been studied to analyze the impact of the dynamics on the fog life cycle. They included a sophisticated microphysical scheme, the drag effect of a trees barrier and deposition on vegetation. The blocking effect of the trees induces elevated fog formation and limits cooling and cloud water production. The deposition process was found to exert the most significant impact on the fog prediction.
Robert Schoetter, Valéry Masson, Alexis Bourgeois, Margot Pellegrino, and Jean-Pierre Lévy
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2801–2831, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2801-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2801-2017, 2017
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We enhance the urban climate model TEB to take into account for the variety of building use and human behaviour related to building energy consumption. This can improve urban climate simulations and is crucial for quantification of the impact of climate change mitigation and adaptation measures in urban areas (e.g. white roofs, insulation of buildings). An evaluation for Toulouse shows that the enhanced version of TEB captures well the spatio-temporal variability of building energy consumption.
Emilie C. Redon, Aude Lemonsu, Valéry Masson, Benjamin Morille, and Marjorie Musy
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 385–411, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-385-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-385-2017, 2017
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In order to assess the potential of cooling of urban vegetation in cities, we need to refine some processes in the microclimate models running on cities as the TEB model. The shading effects of trees on roads, low vegetation (grass), or walls are key processes impacting both air and surface temperatures in the streets by reducing them and improving the thermal comfort of inhabitants. They have been implemented into the TEB model and simulations have been evaluated by a fine-scale model, SOLENE.
A. Khalifa, M. Marchetti, L. Bouilloud, E. Martin, M. Bues, and K. Chancibaut
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 547–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-547-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-547-2016, 2016
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An experimental study was conducted to quantify the anthropic energy flux of traffic impact on RST in the winter season. It indicated an RST increase by 1 °C to 3 °C with respect to the absence of traffic. Additional work was undertaken so as to evaluate to which extent an accurate description of traffic might improve the TEB numerical model when dedicated to RST simulations. Two approaches to traffic integration in this model were detailed and tested.
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Yongzhu Liu, Xiaoye Zhang, Wei Han, Chao Wang, Wenxing Jia, Deying Wang, Zhaorong Zhuang, and Xueshun Shen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4855–4876, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4855-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4855-2025, 2025
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In order to investigate the feedbacks of chemical data assimilation on meteorological forecasts, we developed a strongly coupled aerosol–meteorology four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) assimilation system, CMA-GFS-AERO 4D-Var, based on the framework of the incremental analysis scheme of the China Meteorological Administration Global Forecasting System (CMA-GFS) operational global numerical weather model. The results show that assimilating BC (black carbon) observations can generate analysis increments not only for BC but also for atmospheric variables.
Meghana Velagar, Christoph Keller, and J. Nathan Kutz
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4667–4684, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4667-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4667-2025, 2025
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We develop the data-driven method of dynamic mode decomposition for producing a robust and stable surrogate reduced-order model of atmospheric chemistry dynamics. The model is computationally efficient, provides interpretable patterns of activity, and produces uncertainty quantification metrics. It is ideal for the forecasting of atmospheric chemistry in a computationally tractable manner.
Quanzhe Hou, Zhiqiu Gao, Zexia Duan, and Minghui Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4625–4641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4625-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4625-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates various machine learning and statistical methods for interpolating turbulent heat flux data over the Tibetan Plateau. The Transformer model showed the best performance, leading to the development of the Transformer_CNN model, which combines global and local attention mechanisms. Results show that Transformer_CNN outperforms the other models and was successfully applied to interpolate heat flux data from 2007 to 2016.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Fredrik Jansson, Bart J. H. van Stratum, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, and Sander Houweling
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4571–4599, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4571-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4571-2025, 2025
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We introduce a new simulation platform based on the Dutch Atmospheric Large-Eddy Simulation (DALES) to simulate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their dispersion in turbulent environments at a hectometer resolution. This model incorporates both anthropogenic emission inventories and online ecosystem fluxes. Simulation results for the main urban area in the Netherlands demonstrate the strong potential of DALES to improve CO2 emission modeling and to support mitigation strategies.
Bjarke T. E. Olsen, Andrea N. Hahmann, Nicolas G. Alonso-de-Linaje, Mark Žagar, and Martin Dörenkämper
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4499–4533, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4499-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4499-2025, 2025
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Low-level jets (LLJs) are strong winds in the lower atmosphere that are important for wind energy as turbines get taller. This study compares a weather model (WRF) with real data across five North and Baltic Sea sites. Adjusting the model improved accuracy over the widely used ERA5. In key offshore regions, LLJs occur 10–15 % of the time and significantly boost wind power, especially in spring and summer, contributing up to 30 % of total capacity in some areas.
Vishnu Nair, Anujah Mohanathan, Michael Herzog, David G. Macfarlane, and Duncan A. Robertson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4417–4432, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4417-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4417-2025, 2025
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A numerical model that simulates the measurement processes behind the ground-based radars used to detect volcanic ash clouds is introduced. Using weather radars to detect volcanic clouds is not ideal, as fine ash particles are smaller than raindrops and remain undetected. We evaluate the performance of weather radars to study ash clouds and to identify optimal frequencies that balance the trade-off between a higher return signal and the higher path attenuation that comes at these higher frequencies.
Daniel Garduno Ruiz, Colin Goldblatt, and Anne-Sofie Ahm
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4433–4454, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4433-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4433-2025, 2025
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Photochemical models describe how the composition of the atmosphere changes due to chemical reactions, transport, and other processes. These models are useful for studying the composition of the Earth's and other planets' atmospheres. Understanding the results of these models can be difficult. Here, we build on previous work to develop open-source code that can identify the reaction chains (pathways) that produce the results of these models, facilitating the understanding of these results.
Stefan Noll, Carsten Schmidt, Patrick Hannawald, Wolfgang Kausch, and Stefan Kimeswenger
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4353–4398, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4353-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4353-2025, 2025
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Non-thermal emission from chemical reactions in the Earth's middle und upper atmosphere strongly contributes to the brightness of the night sky below about 2.3 µm. The new Paranal Airglow Line And Continuum Emission model calculates the emission spectrum and its variability with an unprecedented accuracy. Relying on a large spectroscopic data set from astronomical spectrographs and theoretical molecular/atomic data, this model is valuable for airglow research and astronomical observatories.
Peter Kalverla, Imme Benedict, Chris Weijenborg, and Ruud J. van der Ent
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4335–4352, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4335-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4335-2025, 2025
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We introduce a new version of WAM2layers (Water Accounting Model – 2 layers), a computer program that tracks how the weather brings water from one place to another. It uses data from weather and climate models, whose resolution is steadily increasing. Processing the latest data had become a challenge, and the updates presented here ensure that WAM2layers runs smoothly again. We also made it easier to use the program and to understand its source code. This makes it more transparent, reliable, and easier to maintain.
Alexander de Meij, Cornelis Cuvelier, Philippe Thunis, and Enrico Pisoni
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4231–4245, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4231-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4231-2025, 2025
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We assess relevance and utility indicators by evaluating nine Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service models in calculated air pollutant values. For NO2, the results highlight difficulties at traffic stations. For PM2.5 and PM10 the bias and winter–summer gradients reveal issues. O3 evaluation shows that seasonal gradients are useful. Overall, the indicators reveal model limitations, yet there is a need to reconsider the strictness of some indicators for certain pollutants.
Juan Zhao, Jianping Guo, and Xiaohui Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4075–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4075-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4075-2025, 2025
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A series of observing system simulation experiments are conducted to assess the impact of multiple radar wind profiler (RWP) networks on convective-scale numerical weather prediction. Results from three southwest-type heavy rainfall cases in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region suggest the added forecast skill of ridge and foothill networks associated with the Taihang Mountains over the existing RWP network. This research provides valuable guidance for designing optimal RWP networks in the region.
Matthias Kohl, Christoph Brühl, Jennifer Schallock, Holger Tost, Patrick Jöckel, Adrian Jost, Steffen Beirle, Michael Höpfner, and Andrea Pozzer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3985–4007, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3985-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3985-2025, 2025
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SO2 from explosive volcanic eruptions reaching the stratosphere can oxidize and form sulfur aerosols, potentially persisting for several years. We developed a new submodel, Explosive Volcanic ERuptions (EVER), that seamlessly includes stratospheric volcanic SO2 emissions in global numerical simulations based on a novel standard historical model setup, successfully evaluated with satellite observations. Sensitivity studies on the Nabro eruption in 2011 evaluate different emission methods.
Gunho Loren Oh and Philip H. Austin
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3921–3940, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3921-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3921-2025, 2025
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It is difficult to study the behaviour of a cloud field due to internal fluctuations and observational noise. We perform a high-resolution simulation of the boundary-layer cloud field and introduce statistical and numerical techniques, including machine-learning models, to study the evolution of the cloud field, which shows a periodic behaviour. We aim to use the numerical techniques to identify the underlying behaviour within noisy observations.
Oscar Jacquot and Karine Sartelet
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3965–3984, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3965-2025, 2025
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Modelling the size distribution and the number concentration is important to represent ultrafine particles. A new analytic formulation is presented to compute coagulation partition coefficients, allowing us to lower the numerical diffusion associated with the resolution of aerosol dynamics. The significance of this effect is assessed in a 0D box model and over greater Paris with a chemistry transport model, using different size resolutions of the particle distribution.
Mike Bush, David L. A. Flack, Huw W. Lewis, Sylvia I. Bohnenstengel, Chris J. Short, Charmaine Franklin, Adrian P. Lock, Martin Best, Paul Field, Anne McCabe, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Segolene Berthou, Ian Boutle, Jennifer K. Brooke, Seb Cole, Shaun Cooper, Gareth Dow, John Edwards, Anke Finnenkoetter, Kalli Furtado, Kate Halladay, Kirsty Hanley, Margaret A. Hendry, Adrian Hill, Aravindakshan Jayakumar, Richard W. Jones, Humphrey Lean, Joshua C. K. Lee, Andy Malcolm, Marion Mittermaier, Saji Mohandas, Stuart Moore, Cyril Morcrette, Rachel North, Aurore Porson, Susan Rennie, Nigel Roberts, Belinda Roux, Claudio Sanchez, Chun-Hsu Su, Simon Tucker, Simon Vosper, David Walters, James Warner, Stuart Webster, Mark Weeks, Jonathan Wilkinson, Michael Whitall, Keith D. Williams, and Hugh Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3819–3855, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3819-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3819-2025, 2025
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RAL configurations define settings for the Unified Model atmosphere and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator. The third version of the Regional Atmosphere and Land (RAL3) science configuration for kilometre- and sub-kilometre-scale modelling represents a major advance compared to previous versions (RAL2) by delivering a common science definition for applications in tropical and mid-latitude regions. RAL3 has more realistic precipitation distributions and an improved representation of clouds and visibility.
Mijie Pang, Jianbing Jin, Ting Yang, Xi Chen, Arjo Segers, Batjargal Buyantogtokh, Yixuan Gu, Jiandong Li, Hai Xiang Lin, Hong Liao, and Wei Han
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3781–3798, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3781-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3781-2025, 2025
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Aerosol data assimilation has gained popularity as it combines the advantages of modelling and observation. However, few studies have addressed the challenges in the prior vertical structure. Different observations are assimilated to examine the sensitivity of assimilation to vertical structure. Results show that assimilation can optimize the dust field in general. However, if the prior introduces an incorrect structure, the assimilation can significantly deteriorate the integrity of the aerosol profile.
Matthieu Dabrowski, José Mennesson, Jérôme Riedi, Chaabane Djeraba, and Pierre Nabat
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3707–3733, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3707-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3707-2025, 2025
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This work focuses on the prediction of aerosol concentration values at the ground level, which are a strong indicator of air quality, using artificial neural networks. A study of different variables and their efficiency as inputs for these models is also proposed and reveals that the best results are obtained when using all of them. Comparison between network architectures and information fusion methods allows for the extraction of knowledge on the most efficient methods in the context of this study.
Pauline Bonnet, Lorenzo Pastori, Mierk Schwabe, Marco Giorgetta, Fernando Iglesias-Suarez, and Veronika Eyring
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3681–3706, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3681-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3681-2025, 2025
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Tuning a climate model means adjusting uncertain parameters in the model to best match observations like the global radiation balance and cloud cover. This is usually done by running many simulations of the model with different settings, which can be time-consuming and relies heavily on expert knowledge. To make this process faster and more objective, we developed a machine learning emulator to create a large ensemble and apply a method called history matching to find the best settings.
Kang Hu, Hong Liao, Dantong Liu, Jianbing Jin, Lei Chen, Siyuan Li, Yangzhou Wu, Changhao Wu, Shitong Zhao, Xiaotong Jiang, Ping Tian, Kai Bi, Ye Wang, and Delong Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3623–3634, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3623-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3623-2025, 2025
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This study combines machine learning with concentration-weighted trajectory analysis to quantify regional transport PM2.5. From 2013–2020, local emissions dominated Beijing's pollution events. The Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan reduced regional transport pollution, but the eastern region showed the smallest decrease. Beijing should prioritize local emission reduction while considering the east region's contributions in future strategies.
Joffrey Dumont Le Brazidec, Pierre Vanderbecken, Alban Farchi, Grégoire Broquet, Gerrit Kuhlmann, and Marc Bocquet
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3607–3622, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3607-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3607-2025, 2025
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We developed a deep learning method to estimate CO2 emissions from power plants using satellite images. Trained and validated on simulated data, our model accurately predicts emissions despite challenges like cloud cover. When applied to real OCO3 satellite images, the results closely match reported emissions. This study shows that neural networks trained on simulations can effectively analyse real satellite data, offering a new way to monitor CO2 emissions from space.
Wonbae Bang, Jacob T. Carlin, Kwonil Kim, Alexander V. Ryzhkov, Guosheng Liu, and GyuWon Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3559–3581, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3559-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3559-2025, 2025
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Microphysics model-based diagnosis, such as the spectral bin model (SBM), has recently been attempted to diagnose winter precipitation types. In this study, the accuracy of SBM-based precipitation type diagnosis is compared with other traditional methods. SBM has a relatively higher accuracy for dry-snow and wet-snow events, whereas it has lower accuracy for rain events. When the microphysics scheme in the SBM was optimized for the corresponding region, the accuracy for rain events improved.
Markus Kunze, Christoph Zülicke, Tarique A. Siddiqui, Claudia C. Stephan, Yosuke Yamazaki, Claudia Stolle, Sebastian Borchert, and Hauke Schmidt
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3359–3385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3359-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3359-2025, 2025
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We present the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) general circulation model with an upper-atmospheric extension with the physics package for numerical weather prediction (UA-ICON(NWP)). We optimized the parameters for the gravity wave parameterizations and achieved realistic modeling of the thermal and dynamic states of the mesopause regions. UA-ICON(NWP) now shows a realistic frequency of major sudden stratospheric warmings and well-represented solar tides in temperature.
Lucas A. Estrada, Daniel J. Varon, Melissa Sulprizio, Hannah Nesser, Zichong Chen, Nicholas Balasus, Sarah E. Hancock, Megan He, James D. East, Todd A. Mooring, Alexander Oort Alonso, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Ilse Aben, Sabour Baray, Kevin W. Bowman, John R. Worden, Felipe J. Cardoso-Saldaña, Emily Reidy, and Daniel J. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3311–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3311-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3311-2025, 2025
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Reducing emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, is a top policy concern for mitigating anthropogenic climate change. The Integrated Methane Inversion (IMI) is an advanced, cloud-based software that translates satellite observations into actionable emissions data. Here we present IMI version 2.0 with vastly expanded capabilities. These updates enable a wider range of scientific and stakeholder applications from individual basin to global scales with continuous emissions monitoring.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Tim Butler, Jose A. Adame, Rupal Ambulkar, Steve R. Arnold, Rebecca R. Buchholz, Benjamin Gaubert, Douglas S. Hamilton, Min Huang, Hayley Hung, Johannes W. Kaiser, Jacek W. Kaminski, Christoph Knote, Gerbrand Koren, Jean-Luc Kouassi, Meiyun Lin, Tianjia Liu, Jianmin Ma, Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon, Elisa Bergas Masso, Jessica L. McCarty, Mariano Mertens, Mark Parrington, Helene Peiro, Pallavi Saxena, Saurabh Sonwani, Vanisa Surapipith, Damaris Y. T. Tan, Wenfu Tang, Veerachai Tanpipat, Kostas Tsigaridis, Christine Wiedinmyer, Oliver Wild, Yuanyu Xie, and Paquita Zuidema
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3265–3309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3265-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3265-2025, 2025
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The multi-model experiment design of the HTAP3 Fires project takes a multi-pollutant approach to improving our understanding of transboundary transport of wildland fire and agricultural burning emissions and their impacts. The experiments are designed with the goal of answering science policy questions related to fires. The options for the multi-model approach, including inputs, outputs, and model setup, are discussed, and the official recommendations for the project are presented.
Maurin Zouzoua, Sophie Bastin, Fabienne Lohou, Marie Lothon, Marjolaine Chiriaco, Mathilde Jome, Cécile Mallet, Laurent Barthes, and Guylaine Canut
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3211–3239, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3211-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3211-2025, 2025
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This study proposes using a statistical model to freeze errors due to differences in environmental forcing when evaluating the surface turbulent heat fluxes from numerical simulations with observations. The statistical model is first built with observations and then applied to the simulated environment to generate possibly observed fluxes. This novel method provides insight into differently evaluating the numerical formulation of turbulent heat fluxes with a long period of observational data.
Oxana Drofa
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3175–3209, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3175-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3175-2025, 2025
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This paper presents the result of many years of effort of the author, who developed an original mathematical numerical model of heat and moisture exchange processes in soil, vegetation, and snow. The author relied on her 30 years of research experience in atmospheric numerical modelling. The presented model is the fruit of the author's research on physical processes at the surface–atmosphere interface and their numerical approximation and aims at improving numerical weather forecasting and climate simulations.
Tyler P. Janoski, Ivan Mitevski, Ryan J. Kramer, Michael Previdi, and Lorenzo M. Polvani
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3065–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3065-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3065-2025, 2025
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We developed ClimKern, a Python package and radiative kernel repository, to simplify calculating radiative feedbacks and make climate sensitivity studies more reproducible. Testing of ClimKern with sample climate model data reveals that radiative kernel choice may be more important than previously thought, especially in polar regions. Our work highlights the need for kernel sensitivity analyses to be included in future studies.
Matti Niskanen, Aku Seppänen, Henri Oikarinen, Miska Olin, Panu Karjalainen, Santtu Mikkonen, and Kari Lehtinen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2983–3001, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2983-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2983-2025, 2025
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Particle size is a key factor determining the properties of aerosol particles which have a major influence on the climate and on human health. When measuring the particle sizes, however, sometimes the sampling lines that transfer the aerosol to the measurement device distort the size distribution, making the measurement unreliable. We propose a method to correct for the distortions and estimate the true particle sizes, improving measurement accuracy.
Johann Rasmus Nüß, Nikos Daskalakis, Fabian Günther Piwowarczyk, Angelos Gkouvousis, Oliver Schneising, Michael Buchwitz, Maria Kanakidou, Maarten C. Krol, and Mihalis Vrekoussis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2861–2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2861-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2861-2025, 2025
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We estimate carbon monoxide emissions through inverse modeling, an approach where measurements of tracers in the atmosphere are fed to a model to calculate backwards in time (inverse) where the tracers came from. We introduce measurements from a new satellite instrument and show that, in most places globally, these on their own sufficiently constrain the emissions. This alleviates the need for additional datasets, which could shorten the delay for future carbon monoxide source estimates.
Ashu Dastoor, Hélène Angot, Johannes Bieser, Flora Brocza, Brock Edwards, Aryeh Feinberg, Xinbin Feng, Benjamin Geyman, Charikleia Gournia, Yipeng He, Ian M. Hedgecock, Ilia Ilyin, Jane Kirk, Che-Jen Lin, Igor Lehnherr, Robert Mason, David McLagan, Marilena Muntean, Peter Rafaj, Eric M. Roy, Andrei Ryjkov, Noelle E. Selin, Francesco De Simone, Anne L. Soerensen, Frits Steenhuisen, Oleg Travnikov, Shuxiao Wang, Xun Wang, Simon Wilson, Rosa Wu, Qingru Wu, Yanxu Zhang, Jun Zhou, Wei Zhu, and Scott Zolkos
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2747–2860, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2747-2025, 2025
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This paper introduces the Multi-Compartment Mercury (Hg) Modeling and Analysis Project (MCHgMAP) aimed at informing the effectiveness evaluations of two multilateral environmental agreements: the Minamata Convention on Mercury and the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. The experimental design exploits a variety of models (atmospheric, land, oceanic ,and multimedia mass balance models) to assess the short- and long-term influences of anthropogenic Hg releases into the environment.
Hilda Sandström and Patrick Rinke
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2701–2724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2701-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2701-2025, 2025
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Machine learning has the potential to aid the identification of organic molecules involved in aerosol formation. Yet, progress is stalled by a lack of curated atmospheric molecular datasets. Here, we compared atmospheric compounds with large molecular datasets used in machine learning and found minimal overlap with similarity algorithms. Our result underlines the need for collaborative efforts to curate atmospheric molecular data to facilitate machine learning models in atmospheric sciences.
Yuming Jin, Britton B. Stephens, Matthew C. Long, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Joram J. D. Hooghiem, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Shamil Maksyutov, Eric J. Morgan, Yosuke Niwa, Prabir K. Patra, Christian Rödenbeck, and Jesse Vance
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1736, 2025
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We carry out a comprehensive atmospheric transport model (ATM) intercomparison project. This project aims to evaluate errors in ATMs and three air-sea O2 exchange products by comparing model simulations with observations collected from surface stations, ships, and aircraft. We also present a model evaluation framework to independently quantify transport-related and flux-related biases that contribute to model-observation discrepancies in atmospheric tracer distributions.
Juan Escobar, Philippe Wautelet, Joris Pianezze, Florian Pantillon, Thibaut Dauhut, Christelle Barthe, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2679–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2679-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2679-2025, 2025
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The Meso-NH weather research code is adapted for GPUs using OpenACC, leading to significant performance and energy efficiency improvements. Called MESONH-v55-OpenACC, it includes enhanced memory management, communication optimizations and a new solver. On the AMD MI250X Adastra platform, it achieved up to 6× speedup and 2.3× energy efficiency gain compared to CPUs. Storm simulations at 100 m resolution show positive results, positioning the code for future use on exascale supercomputers.
Jie Gao, Yi Huang, Jonathon S. Wright, Ke Li, Tao Geng, and Qiurun Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2569–2586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2569-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2569-2025, 2025
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The aerosol in the upper troposphere and stratosphere is highly variable, and its radiative effect is poorly understood. To estimate this effect, the radiative kernel is constructed and applied. The results show that the kernels can reproduce aerosol radiative effects and are expected to simulate stratospheric aerosol radiative effects. This approach reduces computational expense, is consistent with radiative model calculations, and can be applied to atmospheric models with speed requirements.
Joseph Mouallem, Kun Gao, Brandon G. Reichl, Lauren Chilutti, Lucas Harris, Rusty Benson, Niki Zadeh, Jing Chen, Jan-Huey Chen, and Cheng Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1690, 2025
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We introduce a new high-resolution model that couple the atmosphere and ocean to better simulate extreme weather events. It combines GFDL’s advanced atmospheric and ocean models with a powerful coupling system that allows robust and efficient two-way interactions. Simulations show the model accurately captures hurricane behavior and its impact on the ocean. It also runs efficiently on supercomputers. This model is a key step toward improving extreme weather forecast.
Ji Won Yoon, Seungyeon Lee, Ebony Lee, and Seon Ki Park
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2303–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to predict a mega Asian dust storm (ADS) over South Korea on 28–29 March 2021. We assessed combinations of five dust emission and four land surface schemes by analyzing meteorological and air quality variables. The best scheme combination reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) for particulate matter 10 (PM10) by up to 29.6 %, demonstrating the highest performance.
Jianyu Lin, Tie Dai, Lifang Sheng, Weihang Zhang, Shangfei Hai, and Yawen Kong
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2231–2248, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, 2025
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The effectiveness of this assimilation system and its sensitivity to the ensemble member size and length of the assimilation window are investigated. This study advances our understanding of the selection of basic parameters in the four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter assimilation system and the performance of ensemble simulation in a particulate-matter-polluted environment.
Jens Peter Karolus Wenceslaus Frankemölle, Johan Camps, Pieter De Meutter, and Johan Meyers
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1989–2003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, 2025
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To detect anomalous radioactivity in the environment, it is paramount that we understand the natural background level. In this work, we propose a statistical model to describe the most likely background level and the associated uncertainty in a network of dose rate detectors. We train, verify, and validate the model using real environmental data. Using the model, we show that we can correctly predict the background level in a subset of the detector network during a known
anomalous event.
Jean-François Grailet, Robin J. Hogan, Nicolas Ghilain, David Bolsée, Xavier Fettweis, and Marilaure Grégoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1965–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, 2025
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The MAR (Modèle Régional Atmosphérique) is a regional climate model used for weather forecasting and studying the climate over various regions. This paper presents an update of MAR thanks to which it can precisely decompose solar radiation, in particular in the UV (ultraviolet) and photosynthesis ranges, both being critical to human health and ecosystems. As a first application of this new capability, this paper presents a method for predicting UV indices with MAR.
Yi-Ning Shi, Jun Yang, Wei Han, Lujie Han, Jiajia Mao, Wanlin Kan, and Fuzhong Weng
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1947–1964, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, 2025
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Direct assimilation of observations from ground-based microwave radiometers (GMRs) holds significant potential for improving forecast accuracy. Radiative transfer models (RTMs) play a crucial role in direct data assimilation. In this study, we introduce a new RTM, the Advanced Radiative Transfer Modeling System – Ground-Based (ARMS-gb), designed to simulate brightness temperatures observed by GMRs along with their Jacobians. Several enhancements have been incorporated to achieve higher accuracy.
R. Phani Murali Krishna, Siddharth Kumar, A. Gopinathan Prajeesh, Peter Bechtold, Nils Wedi, Kumar Roy, Malay Ganai, B. Revanth Reddy, Snehlata Tirkey, Tanmoy Goswami, Radhika Kanase, Sahadat Sarkar, Medha Deshpande, and Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1879–1894, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, 2025
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The High-Resolution Global Forecast Model (HGFM) is an advanced iteration of the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) model. HGFM can produce forecasts at a spatial scale of ~6 km in tropics. It demonstrates improved accuracy in short- to medium-range weather prediction over the Indian region, with notable success in predicting extreme events. Further, the model will be entrusted to operational forecasting agencies after validation and testing.
Jenna Ritvanen, Seppo Pulkkinen, Dmitri Moisseev, and Daniele Nerini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1851–1878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, 2025
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Nowcasting models struggle with the rapid evolution of heavy rain, and common verification methods are unable to describe how accurately the models predict the growth and decay of heavy rain. We propose a framework to assess model performance. In the framework, convective cells are identified and tracked in the forecasts and observations, and the model skill is then evaluated by comparing differences between forecast and observed cells. We demonstrate the framework with four open-source models.
Andrew Geiss and Po-Lun Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1809–1827, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, 2025
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Particles in the Earth's atmosphere strongly impact the planet's energy budget, and atmosphere simulations require accurate representation of their interaction with light. This work introduces two approaches to represent light scattering by small particles. The first is a scattering simulator based on Mie theory implemented in Python. The second is a neural network emulator that is more accurate than existing methods and is fast enough to be used in climate and weather simulations.
Andrin Jörimann, Timofei Sukhodolov, Beiping Luo, Gabriel Chiodo, Graham Mann, and Thomas Peter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-145, 2025
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Aerosol particles in the stratosphere affect our climate. Climate models therefore need an accurate description of their properties and evolution. Satellites measure how strongly aerosol particles extinguish light passing through the stratosphere. We describe a method to use such aerosol extinction data to retrieve the number and sizes of the aerosol particles and calculate their optical effects. The resulting data sets for models are validated against ground-based and balloon observations.
Qin Wang, Bo Zeng, Gong Chen, and Yaoting Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1769–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates the performance of four planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in near-surface wind fields over the Sichuan Basin, China. Using 112 sensitivity experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and focusing on 28 wind events, it is found that wind direction was less sensitive to the PBL schemes. The quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE) scheme captured temporal variations best, while the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ) scheme had the least error in wind speed.
Tai-Long He, Nikhil Dadheech, Tammy M. Thompson, and Alexander J. Turner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1661–1671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, 2025
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It is computationally expensive to infer greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions using atmospheric observations. This is partly due to the detailed model used to represent atmospheric transport. We demonstrate how a machine learning (ML) model can be used to simulate high-resolution atmospheric transport. This type of ML model will help estimate GHG emissions using dense observations, which are becoming increasingly common with the proliferation of urban monitoring networks and geostationary satellites.
Wei Li, Beiming Tang, Patrick C. Campbell, Youhua Tang, Barry Baker, Zachary Moon, Daniel Tong, Jianping Huang, Kai Wang, Ivanka Stajner, and Raffaele Montuoro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1635–1660, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, 2025
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The study describes the updates of NOAA's current UFS-AQMv7 air quality forecast model by incorporating the latest scientific and structural changes in CMAQv5.4. An evaluation during the summer of 2023 shows that the updated model overall improves the simulation of MDA8 O3 by reducing the bias by 8%–12% in the contiguous US. PM2.5 predictions have mixed results due to wildfire, highlighting the need for future refinements.
Yanwei Zhu, Aitor Atencia, Markus Dabernig, and Yong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1545–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, 2025
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Most works have delved into convective weather nowcasting, and only a few works have discussed the nowcasting uncertainty for variables at the surface level. Hence, we proposed a method to estimate uncertainty. Generating appropriate noises associated with the characteristic of the error in analysis can simulate the uncertainty of nowcasting. This method can contribute to the estimation of near–surface analysis uncertainty in both nowcasting applications and ensemble nowcasting development.
Joël Thanwerdas, Antoine Berchet, Lionel Constantin, Aki Tsuruta, Michael Steiner, Friedemann Reum, Stephan Henne, and Dominik Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1505–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, 2025
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The Community Inversion Framework (CIF) brings together methods for estimating greenhouse gas fluxes from atmospheric observations. The initial ensemble method implemented in CIF was found to be incomplete and could hardly be compared to other ensemble methods employed in the inversion community. In this paper, we present and evaluate a new implementation of the ensemble mode, building upon the initial developments.
Astrid Kerkweg, Timo Kirfel, Duong H. Do, Sabine Griessbach, Patrick Jöckel, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1265–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, 2025
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Normally, the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) is linked to complete dynamic models to create chemical climate models. However, the modular concept of MESSy and the newly developed DWARF component presented here make it possible to create simplified models that contain only one or a few process descriptions. This is very useful for technical optimisation, such as porting to GPUs, and can be used to create less complex models, such as a chemical box model.
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Short summary
In winter, snow- and ice-covered artificial surfaces are important aspects of the urban climate. They may influence the magnitude of the urban heat island effect, but this is still unclear. In this study, we improved the representation of the snow and ice cover in the Town Energy Balance (TEB) urban climate model. Evaluations have shown that the results are promising for using TEB to study the climate of cold cities.
In winter, snow- and ice-covered artificial surfaces are important aspects of the urban climate....
Special issue