Articles | Volume 18, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
27 Mar 2025
Development and technical paper |
| 27 Mar 2025
| 27 Mar 2025
A Bayesian method for predicting background radiation at environmental monitoring stations in local-scale networks
Jens Peter Karolus Wenceslaus Frankemölle
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, SCK CEN, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol, Belgium
Department of Mechanical Engineering, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 300, 3000 Leuven, Belgium
Johan Camps
Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, SCK CEN, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol, Belgium
Pieter De Meutter
Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, SCK CEN, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol, Belgium
Johan Meyers
Department of Mechanical Engineering, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 300, 3000 Leuven, Belgium
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Stefan Ivanell, Warit Chanprasert, Luca Lanzilao, James Bleeg, Johan Meyers, Antoine Mathieu, Søren Juhl Andersen, Rem-Sophia Mouradi, Eric Dupont, Hugo Olivares-Espinosa, and Niels Troldborg
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-88, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-88, 2025
Preprint under review for WES
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This study explores how the height of the atmosphere's boundary layer impacts wind farm performance, focusing on how this factor influences energy output. By simulating different boundary layer heights and conditions, the research reveals that deeper layers promote better energy recovery. The findings highlight the importance of considering atmospheric conditions when simulating wind farms to maximize energy efficiency, offering valuable insights for the wind energy industry.
Théo Delvaux and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 613–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-613-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-613-2025, 2025
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The work explores the potential for wind farm load reduction and power maximization. We carried out a series of high-fidelity large-eddy simulations for a wide range of atmospheric conditions and operating regimes. Because of turbine-scale interactions and large-scale effects, we observed that maximum power extraction is achieved at regimes lower than the Betz operating point. Thus, we proposed three simple approaches with which thrust significantly decreases with only a limited impact on power.
Andrew Kirby, Takafumi Nishino, Luca Lanzilao, Thomas D. Dunstan, and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 435–450, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-435-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-435-2025, 2025
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Traditionally, the aerodynamic loss of wind farm efficiency is classified into wake loss and farm blockage loss. This study, using high-fidelity simulations, shows that neither of these two losses is well correlated with the overall farm efficiency. We propose new measures called turbine-scale efficiency and farm-scale efficiency to better describe turbine–wake effects and farm–atmosphere interactions. This study suggests the importance of better modelling farm-scale loss in future studies.
Olivier Ndindayino, Augustin Puel, and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-6, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for WES
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Our aim is to understand the relationship between flow blockage and improved wind farm efficiency using large-eddy simulations, as well as developing an analytical model that shows promise for improving turbine power predictions under blockage. We found that blockage enhances turbine power and thrust by inducing a favourable pressure drop across the turbine row, while simultaneously inducing an unfavourable pressure increase downstream which has minimal direct impact on far wake development.
Stijn Van Leuven, Pieter De Meutter, Johan Camps, Piet Termonia, and Andy Delcloo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4057, 2025
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We use deposition measurements to trace the source of the radioactive isotope Ru-106 released into the atmosphere in 2017, which led to detections in Europe and other parts of the northern hemisphere. Most frequently, measurements of air concentration are used for such purposes. Our research shows that while air concentration data can provide more precise results, deposition measurements can still effectively pinpoint the release location, offering a less costly and more versatile alternative.
Majid Bastankhah, Marcus Becker, Matthew Churchfield, Caroline Draxl, Jay Prakash Goit, Mehtab Khan, Luis A. Martinez Tossas, Johan Meyers, Patrick Moriarty, Wim Munters, Asim Önder, Sara Porchetta, Eliot Quon, Ishaan Sood, Nicole van Lipzig, Jan-Willem van Wingerden, Paul Veers, and Simon Watson
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 2171–2174, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-2171-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-2171-2024, 2024
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Dries Allaerts was born on 19 May 1989 and passed away at his home in Wezemaal, Belgium, on 10 October 2024 after battling cancer. Dries started his wind energy career in 2012 and had a profound impact afterward on the community, in terms of both his scientific realizations and his many friendships and collaborations in the field. His scientific acumen, open spirit of collaboration, positive attitude towards life, and playful and often cheeky sense of humor will be deeply missed by many.
Jérôme Neirynck, Jonas Van de Walle, Ruben Borgers, Sebastiaan Jamaer, Johan Meyers, Ad Stoffelen, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 1695–1711, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1695-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1695-2024, 2024
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In our study, we assess how mesoscale weather systems influence wind speed variations and their impact on offshore wind energy production fluctuations. We have observed, for instance, that weather systems originating over land lead to sea wind speed variations. Additionally, we noted that power fluctuations are typically more significant in summer, despite potentially larger winter wind speed variations. These findings are valuable for grid management and optimizing renewable energy deployment.
Ruben Borgers, Marieke Dirksen, Ine L. Wijnant, Andrew Stepek, Ad Stoffelen, Naveed Akhtar, Jérôme Neirynck, Jonas Van de Walle, Johan Meyers, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 697–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-697-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-697-2024, 2024
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Wind farms at sea are becoming more densely clustered, which means that next to individual wind turbines interfering with each other in a single wind farm also interference between wind farms becomes important. Using a climate model, this study shows that the efficiency of wind farm clusters and the interference between the wind farms in the cluster depend strongly on the properties of the individual wind farms and are also highly sensitive to the spacing between the wind farms.
Nick Janssens and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 65–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-65-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-65-2024, 2024
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Proper wind farm control may vastly contribute to Europe's plan to go carbon neutral. However, current strategies don't account for turbine–wake interactions affecting power extraction. High-fidelity models (e.g., LES) are needed to accurately model this but are considered too slow in practice. By coarsening the resolution, we were able to design an efficient LES-based controller with real-time potential. This may allow us to bridge the gap towards practical wind farm control in the near future.
Stijn Van Leuven, Pieter De Meutter, Johan Camps, Piet Termonia, and Andy Delcloo
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5323–5338, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5323-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5323-2023, 2023
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Precipitation collects airborne particles and deposits these on the ground. This process is called wet deposition and greatly determines how airborne radioactive particles (released routinely or accidentally) contaminate the surface. In this work we present a new method to improve the calculation of wet deposition in computer models. We apply this method to the existing model FLEXPART by simulating the Fukushima nuclear accident (2011) and show that it improves the simulation of wet deposition.
Ishaan Sood, Elliot Simon, Athanasios Vitsas, Bart Blockmans, Gunner C. Larsen, and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2469–2489, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2469-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2469-2022, 2022
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In this work, we conduct a validation study to compare a numerical solver against measurements obtained from the offshore Lillgrund wind farm. By reusing a previously developed inflow turbulent dataset, the atmospheric conditions at the wind farm were recreated, and the general performance trends of the turbines were captured well. The work increases the reliability of numerical wind farm solvers while highlighting the challenges of accurately representing large wind farms using such solvers.
Paul Veers, Katherine Dykes, Sukanta Basu, Alessandro Bianchini, Andrew Clifton, Peter Green, Hannele Holttinen, Lena Kitzing, Branko Kosovic, Julie K. Lundquist, Johan Meyers, Mark O'Malley, William J. Shaw, and Bethany Straw
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2491–2496, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2491-2022, 2022
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Wind energy will play a central role in the transition of our energy system to a carbon-free future. However, many underlying scientific issues remain to be resolved before wind can be deployed in the locations and applications needed for such large-scale ambitions. The Grand Challenges are the gaps in the science left behind during the rapid growth of wind energy. This article explains the breadth of the unfinished business and introduces 10 articles that detail the research needs.
Johan Meyers, Carlo Bottasso, Katherine Dykes, Paul Fleming, Pieter Gebraad, Gregor Giebel, Tuhfe Göçmen, and Jan-Willem van Wingerden
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2271–2306, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2271-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2271-2022, 2022
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We provide a comprehensive overview of the state of the art and the outstanding challenges in wind farm flow control, thus identifying the key research areas that could further enable commercial uptake and success. To this end, we have structured the discussion on challenges and opportunities into four main areas: (1) insight into control flow physics, (2) algorithms and AI, (3) validation and industry implementation, and (4) integrating control with system design
(co-design).
Konstanze Kölle, Tuhfe Göçmen, Irene Eguinoa, Leonardo Andrés Alcayaga Román, Maria Aparicio-Sanchez, Ju Feng, Johan Meyers, Vasilis Pettas, and Ishaan Sood
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2181–2200, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2181-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2181-2022, 2022
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The paper studies wind farm flow control (WFFC) in simulations with variable electricity prices. The results indicate that considering the electricity price in the operational strategy can be beneficial with respect to the gained income compared to focusing on the power gain only. Moreover, revenue maximization by balancing power production and structural load reduction is demonstrated at the example of a single wind turbine.
Tuhfe Göçmen, Filippo Campagnolo, Thomas Duc, Irene Eguinoa, Søren Juhl Andersen, Vlaho Petrović, Lejla Imširović, Robert Braunbehrens, Jaime Liew, Mads Baungaard, Maarten Paul van der Laan, Guowei Qian, Maria Aparicio-Sanchez, Rubén González-Lope, Vinit V. Dighe, Marcus Becker, Maarten J. van den Broek, Jan-Willem van Wingerden, Adam Stock, Matthew Cole, Renzo Ruisi, Ervin Bossanyi, Niklas Requate, Simon Strnad, Jonas Schmidt, Lukas Vollmer, Ishaan Sood, and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 1791–1825, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1791-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1791-2022, 2022
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The FarmConners benchmark is the first of its kind to bring a wide variety of data sets, control settings, and model complexities for the (initial) assessment of wind farm flow control benefits. Here we present the first part of the benchmark results for three blind tests with large-scale rotors and 11 participating models in total, via direct power comparisons at the turbines as well as the observed or estimated power gain at the wind farm level under wake steering control strategy.
Koen Devesse, Luca Lanzilao, Sebastiaan Jamaer, Nicole van Lipzig, and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 1367–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1367-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1367-2022, 2022
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Recent research suggests that offshore wind farms might form such a large obstacle to the wind that it already decelerates before reaching the first turbines. Part of this phenomenon could be explained by gravity waves. Research on these gravity waves triggered by mountains and hills has found that variations in the atmospheric state with altitude can have a large effect on how they behave. This paper is the first to take the impact of those vertical variations into account for wind farms.
Thomas Haas, Jochem De Schutter, Moritz Diehl, and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 1093–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1093-2022, 2022
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In this work, we study parks of large-scale airborne wind energy systems using a virtual flight simulator. The virtual flight simulator combines numerical techniques from flow simulation and kite control. Using advanced control algorithms, the systems can operate efficiently in the park despite turbulent flow conditions. For the three configurations considered in the study, we observe significant wake effects, reducing the power yield of the parks.
Pieter De Meutter, Ian Hoffman, and Kurt Ungar
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1237–1252, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1237-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1237-2021, 2021
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Inverse atmospheric transport modelling is an important tool in several disciplines. However, the specification of atmospheric transport model error remains challenging. In this paper, we employ a state-of-the-art ensemble technique combined with a state-of-the-art Bayesian inference algorithm to infer point sources. Our research helps to fill the gap in our understanding of model error in the context of inverse atmospheric transport modelling.
Luca Lanzilao and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 247–271, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-247-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-247-2021, 2021
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This research paper investigates the potential of thrust set-point optimization in large wind farms for mitigating gravity-wave-induced blockage effects for the first time, with the aim of increasing the wind-farm energy extraction. The optimization tool is applied to almost 2000 different atmospheric states. Overall, power gains above 4 % are observed for 77 % of the cases.
Wim Munters and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci., 3, 409–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-409-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-409-2018, 2018
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Wake interactions in wind farms result in power losses for downstream turbines. We aim to mitigate these losses through coordinated control of the induced slowdown of the wind by each turbine. We further analyze results from earlier work towards the utilization of such control strategies in practice. Coherent vortex shedding is identified and mimicked by a sinusoidal control. The latter is shown to increase power in downstream turbines and is robust to turbine spacing and turbulence intensity.
Sjoerd Boersma, Bart Doekemeijer, Mehdi Vali, Johan Meyers, and Jan-Willem van Wingerden
Wind Energ. Sci., 3, 75–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-75-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-75-2018, 2018
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Controlling the flow within wind farms to reduce the fatigue loads and provide grid facilities such as the delivery of a demanded power is a challenging control problem due to the underlying time-varying non-linear wake dynamics. In this paper, a control-oriented dynamical wind farm model is presented and validated with high-fidelity wind farm models. In contrast to the latter models, the model presented in this work is computationally efficient and hence suitable for online wind farm control.
Carl R. Shapiro, Johan Meyers, Charles Meneveau, and Dennice F. Gayme
Wind Energ. Sci., 3, 11–24, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-11-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-11-2018, 2018
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We investigate the capability of wind farms to track a power reference signal to help ensure reliable power grid operations. The wind farm controller is based on a simple dynamic wind farm model and tested using high-fidelity simulations. We find that the dynamic nature of the wind farm model is vital for tracking the power signal, and the controlled wind farm would pass industry performance tests in most cases.
Vahid S. Bokharaie, Pieter Bauweraerts, and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci., 1, 311–325, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-1-311-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-1-311-2016, 2016
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Given a wind farm with known dimensions and number of wind turbines, we try to find the optimum positioning of wind turbines that maximises wind-farm energy production. We propose an optimisation approach that is based on a hybrid combination of large-eddy simulation (LES) and the Jensen model; in this approach optimisation is mainly performed using the Jensen model, and LES is used at a few points only during optimisation for online tuning of the Jensen model.
Hendrik Wouters, Matthias Demuzere, Ulrich Blahak, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Bino Maiheu, Johan Camps, Daniël Tielemans, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3027–3054, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3027-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3027-2016, 2016
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A methodology is presented for translating three-dimensional information of urban areas into land-surface parameters that can be easily employed in atmospheric modelling. As demonstrated with the COSMO-CLM model for a Belgian summer, it enables them to represent urban heat islands and their dependency on urban design with a low computational cost. It allows for efficiently incorporating urban information systems (e.g., WUDAPT) into climate change assessment and numerical weather prediction.
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Aerosol data assimilation has gained popularity as it combines the advantages of modelling and observation. However, few studies have addressed the challenges in the prior vertical structure. Different observations are assimilated to examine the sensitivity of assimilation to vertical structure. Results show that assimilation can optimize the dust field in general. However, if the prior introduces an incorrect structure, the assimilation can significantly deteriorate the integrity of the aerosol profile.
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Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3681–3706, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3681-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3681-2025, 2025
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Tuning a climate model means adjusting uncertain parameters in the model to best match observations like the global radiation balance and cloud cover. This is usually done by running many simulations of the model with different settings, which can be time-consuming and relies heavily on expert knowledge. To make this process faster and more objective, we developed a machine learning emulator to create a large ensemble and apply a method called history matching to find the best settings.
Kang Hu, Hong Liao, Dantong Liu, Jianbing Jin, Lei Chen, Siyuan Li, Yangzhou Wu, Changhao Wu, Shitong Zhao, Xiaotong Jiang, Ping Tian, Kai Bi, Ye Wang, and Delong Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3623–3634, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3623-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3623-2025, 2025
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This study combines machine learning with concentration-weighted trajectory analysis to quantify regional transport PM2.5. From 2013–2020, local emissions dominated Beijing's pollution events. The Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan reduced regional transport pollution, but the eastern region showed the smallest decrease. Beijing should prioritize local emission reduction while considering the east region's contributions in future strategies.
Joffrey Dumont Le Brazidec, Pierre Vanderbecken, Alban Farchi, Grégoire Broquet, Gerrit Kuhlmann, and Marc Bocquet
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3607–3622, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3607-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3607-2025, 2025
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We developed a deep learning method to estimate CO2 emissions from power plants using satellite images. Trained and validated on simulated data, our model accurately predicts emissions despite challenges like cloud cover. When applied to real OCO3 satellite images, the results closely match reported emissions. This study shows that neural networks trained on simulations can effectively analyse real satellite data, offering a new way to monitor CO2 emissions from space.
Wonbae Bang, Jacob T. Carlin, Kwonil Kim, Alexander V. Ryzhkov, Guosheng Liu, and GyuWon Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3559–3581, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3559-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3559-2025, 2025
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Microphysics model-based diagnosis, such as the spectral bin model (SBM), has recently been attempted to diagnose winter precipitation types. In this study, the accuracy of SBM-based precipitation type diagnosis is compared with other traditional methods. SBM has a relatively higher accuracy for dry-snow and wet-snow events, whereas it has lower accuracy for rain events. When the microphysics scheme in the SBM was optimized for the corresponding region, the accuracy for rain events improved.
Gabriel Colas, Valéry Masson, François Bouttier, Ludovic Bouilloud, Laura Pavan, and Virve Karsisto
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3453–3472, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3453-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3453-2025, 2025
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In winter, snow- and ice-covered artificial surfaces are important aspects of the urban climate. They may influence the magnitude of the urban heat island effect, but this is still unclear. In this study, we improved the representation of the snow and ice cover in the Town Energy Balance (TEB) urban climate model. Evaluations have shown that the results are promising for using TEB to study the climate of cold cities.
Markus Kunze, Christoph Zülicke, Tarique A. Siddiqui, Claudia C. Stephan, Yosuke Yamazaki, Claudia Stolle, Sebastian Borchert, and Hauke Schmidt
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3359–3385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3359-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3359-2025, 2025
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We present the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) general circulation model with an upper-atmospheric extension with the physics package for numerical weather prediction (UA-ICON(NWP)). We optimized the parameters for the gravity wave parameterizations and achieved realistic modeling of the thermal and dynamic states of the mesopause regions. UA-ICON(NWP) now shows a realistic frequency of major sudden stratospheric warmings and well-represented solar tides in temperature.
Lucas A. Estrada, Daniel J. Varon, Melissa Sulprizio, Hannah Nesser, Zichong Chen, Nicholas Balasus, Sarah E. Hancock, Megan He, James D. East, Todd A. Mooring, Alexander Oort Alonso, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Ilse Aben, Sabour Baray, Kevin W. Bowman, John R. Worden, Felipe J. Cardoso-Saldaña, Emily Reidy, and Daniel J. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3311–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3311-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3311-2025, 2025
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Reducing emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, is a top policy concern for mitigating anthropogenic climate change. The Integrated Methane Inversion (IMI) is an advanced, cloud-based software that translates satellite observations into actionable emissions data. Here we present IMI version 2.0 with vastly expanded capabilities. These updates enable a wider range of scientific and stakeholder applications from individual basin to global scales with continuous emissions monitoring.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Tim Butler, Jose A. Adame, Rupal Ambulkar, Steve R. Arnold, Rebecca R. Buchholz, Benjamin Gaubert, Douglas S. Hamilton, Min Huang, Hayley Hung, Johannes W. Kaiser, Jacek W. Kaminski, Christoph Knote, Gerbrand Koren, Jean-Luc Kouassi, Meiyun Lin, Tianjia Liu, Jianmin Ma, Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon, Elisa Bergas Masso, Jessica L. McCarty, Mariano Mertens, Mark Parrington, Helene Peiro, Pallavi Saxena, Saurabh Sonwani, Vanisa Surapipith, Damaris Y. T. Tan, Wenfu Tang, Veerachai Tanpipat, Kostas Tsigaridis, Christine Wiedinmyer, Oliver Wild, Yuanyu Xie, and Paquita Zuidema
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3265–3309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3265-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3265-2025, 2025
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The multi-model experiment design of the HTAP3 Fires project takes a multi-pollutant approach to improving our understanding of transboundary transport of wildland fire and agricultural burning emissions and their impacts. The experiments are designed with the goal of answering science policy questions related to fires. The options for the multi-model approach, including inputs, outputs, and model setup, are discussed, and the official recommendations for the project are presented.
Maurin Zouzoua, Sophie Bastin, Fabienne Lohou, Marie Lothon, Marjolaine Chiriaco, Mathilde Jome, Cécile Mallet, Laurent Barthes, and Guylaine Canut
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3211–3239, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3211-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3211-2025, 2025
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This study proposes using a statistical model to freeze errors due to differences in environmental forcing when evaluating the surface turbulent heat fluxes from numerical simulations with observations. The statistical model is first built with observations and then applied to the simulated environment to generate possibly observed fluxes. This novel method provides insight into differently evaluating the numerical formulation of turbulent heat fluxes with a long period of observational data.
Oxana Drofa
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3175–3209, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3175-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3175-2025, 2025
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This paper presents the result of many years of effort of the author, who developed an original mathematical numerical model of heat and moisture exchange processes in soil, vegetation, and snow. The author relied on her 30 years of research experience in atmospheric numerical modelling. The presented model is the fruit of the author's research on physical processes at the surface–atmosphere interface and their numerical approximation and aims at improving numerical weather forecasting and climate simulations.
Tyler P. Janoski, Ivan Mitevski, Ryan J. Kramer, Michael Previdi, and Lorenzo M. Polvani
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3065–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3065-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3065-2025, 2025
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We developed ClimKern, a Python package and radiative kernel repository, to simplify calculating radiative feedbacks and make climate sensitivity studies more reproducible. Testing of ClimKern with sample climate model data reveals that radiative kernel choice may be more important than previously thought, especially in polar regions. Our work highlights the need for kernel sensitivity analyses to be included in future studies.
Matti Niskanen, Aku Seppänen, Henri Oikarinen, Miska Olin, Panu Karjalainen, Santtu Mikkonen, and Kari Lehtinen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2983–3001, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2983-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2983-2025, 2025
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Particle size is a key factor determining the properties of aerosol particles which have a major influence on the climate and on human health. When measuring the particle sizes, however, sometimes the sampling lines that transfer the aerosol to the measurement device distort the size distribution, making the measurement unreliable. We propose a method to correct for the distortions and estimate the true particle sizes, improving measurement accuracy.
Johann Rasmus Nüß, Nikos Daskalakis, Fabian Günther Piwowarczyk, Angelos Gkouvousis, Oliver Schneising, Michael Buchwitz, Maria Kanakidou, Maarten C. Krol, and Mihalis Vrekoussis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2861–2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2861-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2861-2025, 2025
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We estimate carbon monoxide emissions through inverse modeling, an approach where measurements of tracers in the atmosphere are fed to a model to calculate backwards in time (inverse) where the tracers came from. We introduce measurements from a new satellite instrument and show that, in most places globally, these on their own sufficiently constrain the emissions. This alleviates the need for additional datasets, which could shorten the delay for future carbon monoxide source estimates.
Ashu Dastoor, Hélène Angot, Johannes Bieser, Flora Brocza, Brock Edwards, Aryeh Feinberg, Xinbin Feng, Benjamin Geyman, Charikleia Gournia, Yipeng He, Ian M. Hedgecock, Ilia Ilyin, Jane Kirk, Che-Jen Lin, Igor Lehnherr, Robert Mason, David McLagan, Marilena Muntean, Peter Rafaj, Eric M. Roy, Andrei Ryjkov, Noelle E. Selin, Francesco De Simone, Anne L. Soerensen, Frits Steenhuisen, Oleg Travnikov, Shuxiao Wang, Xun Wang, Simon Wilson, Rosa Wu, Qingru Wu, Yanxu Zhang, Jun Zhou, Wei Zhu, and Scott Zolkos
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2747–2860, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2747-2025, 2025
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This paper introduces the Multi-Compartment Mercury (Hg) Modeling and Analysis Project (MCHgMAP) aimed at informing the effectiveness evaluations of two multilateral environmental agreements: the Minamata Convention on Mercury and the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. The experimental design exploits a variety of models (atmospheric, land, oceanic ,and multimedia mass balance models) to assess the short- and long-term influences of anthropogenic Hg releases into the environment.
Hilda Sandström and Patrick Rinke
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2701–2724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2701-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2701-2025, 2025
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Machine learning has the potential to aid the identification of organic molecules involved in aerosol formation. Yet, progress is stalled by a lack of curated atmospheric molecular datasets. Here, we compared atmospheric compounds with large molecular datasets used in machine learning and found minimal overlap with similarity algorithms. Our result underlines the need for collaborative efforts to curate atmospheric molecular data to facilitate machine learning models in atmospheric sciences.
Juan Escobar, Philippe Wautelet, Joris Pianezze, Florian Pantillon, Thibaut Dauhut, Christelle Barthe, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2679–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2679-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2679-2025, 2025
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The Meso-NH weather research code is adapted for GPUs using OpenACC, leading to significant performance and energy efficiency improvements. Called MESONH-v55-OpenACC, it includes enhanced memory management, communication optimizations and a new solver. On the AMD MI250X Adastra platform, it achieved up to 6× speedup and 2.3× energy efficiency gain compared to CPUs. Storm simulations at 100 m resolution show positive results, positioning the code for future use on exascale supercomputers.
Jie Gao, Yi Huang, Jonathon S. Wright, Ke Li, Tao Geng, and Qiurun Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2569–2586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2569-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2569-2025, 2025
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The aerosol in the upper troposphere and stratosphere is highly variable, and its radiative effect is poorly understood. To estimate this effect, the radiative kernel is constructed and applied. The results show that the kernels can reproduce aerosol radiative effects and are expected to simulate stratospheric aerosol radiative effects. This approach reduces computational expense, is consistent with radiative model calculations, and can be applied to atmospheric models with speed requirements.
Ji Won Yoon, Seungyeon Lee, Ebony Lee, and Seon Ki Park
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2303–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to predict a mega Asian dust storm (ADS) over South Korea on 28–29 March 2021. We assessed combinations of five dust emission and four land surface schemes by analyzing meteorological and air quality variables. The best scheme combination reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) for particulate matter 10 (PM10) by up to 29.6 %, demonstrating the highest performance.
Jianyu Lin, Tie Dai, Lifang Sheng, Weihang Zhang, Shangfei Hai, and Yawen Kong
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2231–2248, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, 2025
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The effectiveness of this assimilation system and its sensitivity to the ensemble member size and length of the assimilation window are investigated. This study advances our understanding of the selection of basic parameters in the four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter assimilation system and the performance of ensemble simulation in a particulate-matter-polluted environment.
Jean-François Grailet, Robin J. Hogan, Nicolas Ghilain, David Bolsée, Xavier Fettweis, and Marilaure Grégoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1965–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, 2025
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The MAR (Modèle Régional Atmosphérique) is a regional climate model used for weather forecasting and studying the climate over various regions. This paper presents an update of MAR thanks to which it can precisely decompose solar radiation, in particular in the UV (ultraviolet) and photosynthesis ranges, both being critical to human health and ecosystems. As a first application of this new capability, this paper presents a method for predicting UV indices with MAR.
Yi-Ning Shi, Jun Yang, Wei Han, Lujie Han, Jiajia Mao, Wanlin Kan, and Fuzhong Weng
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1947–1964, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, 2025
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Direct assimilation of observations from ground-based microwave radiometers (GMRs) holds significant potential for improving forecast accuracy. Radiative transfer models (RTMs) play a crucial role in direct data assimilation. In this study, we introduce a new RTM, the Advanced Radiative Transfer Modeling System – Ground-Based (ARMS-gb), designed to simulate brightness temperatures observed by GMRs along with their Jacobians. Several enhancements have been incorporated to achieve higher accuracy.
R. Phani Murali Krishna, Siddharth Kumar, A. Gopinathan Prajeesh, Peter Bechtold, Nils Wedi, Kumar Roy, Malay Ganai, B. Revanth Reddy, Snehlata Tirkey, Tanmoy Goswami, Radhika Kanase, Sahadat Sarkar, Medha Deshpande, and Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1879–1894, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, 2025
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The High-Resolution Global Forecast Model (HGFM) is an advanced iteration of the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) model. HGFM can produce forecasts at a spatial scale of ~6 km in tropics. It demonstrates improved accuracy in short- to medium-range weather prediction over the Indian region, with notable success in predicting extreme events. Further, the model will be entrusted to operational forecasting agencies after validation and testing.
Jenna Ritvanen, Seppo Pulkkinen, Dmitri Moisseev, and Daniele Nerini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1851–1878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, 2025
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Nowcasting models struggle with the rapid evolution of heavy rain, and common verification methods are unable to describe how accurately the models predict the growth and decay of heavy rain. We propose a framework to assess model performance. In the framework, convective cells are identified and tracked in the forecasts and observations, and the model skill is then evaluated by comparing differences between forecast and observed cells. We demonstrate the framework with four open-source models.
Andrew Geiss and Po-Lun Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1809–1827, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, 2025
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Particles in the Earth's atmosphere strongly impact the planet's energy budget, and atmosphere simulations require accurate representation of their interaction with light. This work introduces two approaches to represent light scattering by small particles. The first is a scattering simulator based on Mie theory implemented in Python. The second is a neural network emulator that is more accurate than existing methods and is fast enough to be used in climate and weather simulations.
Andrin Jörimann, Timofei Sukhodolov, Beiping Luo, Gabriel Chiodo, Graham Mann, and Thomas Peter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-145, 2025
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Aerosol particles in the stratosphere affect our climate. Climate models therefore need an accurate description of their properties and evolution. Satellites measure how strongly aerosol particles extinguish light passing through the stratosphere. We describe a method to use such aerosol extinction data to retrieve the number and sizes of the aerosol particles and calculate their optical effects. The resulting data sets for models are validated against ground-based and balloon observations.
Qin Wang, Bo Zeng, Gong Chen, and Yaoting Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1769–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates the performance of four planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in near-surface wind fields over the Sichuan Basin, China. Using 112 sensitivity experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and focusing on 28 wind events, it is found that wind direction was less sensitive to the PBL schemes. The quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE) scheme captured temporal variations best, while the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ) scheme had the least error in wind speed.
Tai-Long He, Nikhil Dadheech, Tammy M. Thompson, and Alexander J. Turner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1661–1671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, 2025
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It is computationally expensive to infer greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions using atmospheric observations. This is partly due to the detailed model used to represent atmospheric transport. We demonstrate how a machine learning (ML) model can be used to simulate high-resolution atmospheric transport. This type of ML model will help estimate GHG emissions using dense observations, which are becoming increasingly common with the proliferation of urban monitoring networks and geostationary satellites.
Wei Li, Beiming Tang, Patrick C. Campbell, Youhua Tang, Barry Baker, Zachary Moon, Daniel Tong, Jianping Huang, Kai Wang, Ivanka Stajner, and Raffaele Montuoro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1635–1660, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, 2025
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The study describes the updates of NOAA's current UFS-AQMv7 air quality forecast model by incorporating the latest scientific and structural changes in CMAQv5.4. An evaluation during the summer of 2023 shows that the updated model overall improves the simulation of MDA8 O3 by reducing the bias by 8%–12% in the contiguous US. PM2.5 predictions have mixed results due to wildfire, highlighting the need for future refinements.
Yanwei Zhu, Aitor Atencia, Markus Dabernig, and Yong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1545–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, 2025
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Most works have delved into convective weather nowcasting, and only a few works have discussed the nowcasting uncertainty for variables at the surface level. Hence, we proposed a method to estimate uncertainty. Generating appropriate noises associated with the characteristic of the error in analysis can simulate the uncertainty of nowcasting. This method can contribute to the estimation of near–surface analysis uncertainty in both nowcasting applications and ensemble nowcasting development.
Joël Thanwerdas, Antoine Berchet, Lionel Constantin, Aki Tsuruta, Michael Steiner, Friedemann Reum, Stephan Henne, and Dominik Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1505–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, 2025
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The Community Inversion Framework (CIF) brings together methods for estimating greenhouse gas fluxes from atmospheric observations. The initial ensemble method implemented in CIF was found to be incomplete and could hardly be compared to other ensemble methods employed in the inversion community. In this paper, we present and evaluate a new implementation of the ensemble mode, building upon the initial developments.
Astrid Kerkweg, Timo Kirfel, Duong H. Do, Sabine Griessbach, Patrick Jöckel, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1265–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, 2025
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Normally, the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) is linked to complete dynamic models to create chemical climate models. However, the modular concept of MESSy and the newly developed DWARF component presented here make it possible to create simplified models that contain only one or a few process descriptions. This is very useful for technical optimisation, such as porting to GPUs, and can be used to create less complex models, such as a chemical box model.
Peter Wind and Willem van Caspel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3571, 2025
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This paper presents a numerical method to assess the origin of air pollution. Combined with a numerical air pollution transport and chemistry model, it can follow the contributions from a large number of emission sources. The result is a series of maps that give the relative contributions from for example all European countries at each point.
Julian Vogel, Sebastian Stadler, Ganesh Chockalingam, Afshin Afshari, Johanna Henning, and Matthias Winkler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-144, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-144, 2025
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This study presents a toolkit to simplify input data creation for the urban microclimate model PALM-4U. It introduces novel methods to automate the use of open data sources. Our analysis of four test cases created from different geographic data sources shows variations in temperature, humidity, and wind speed, influenced by data quality. Validation indicates that the automated methods yield results comparable to expert-driven approaches, facilitating user-friendly urban climate modeling.
Edward C. Chan, Ilona J. Jäkel, Basit Khan, Martijn Schaap, Timothy M. Butler, Renate Forkel, and Sabine Banzhaf
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1119–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025, 2025
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An enhanced emission module has been developed for the PALM model system, improving flexibility and scalability of emission source representation across different sectors. A model for parametrized domestic emissions has also been included, for which an idealized model run is conducted for particulate matter (PM10). The results show that, in addition to individual sources and diurnal variations in energy consumption, vertical transport and urban topology play a role in concentration distribution.
Gregor Ehrensperger, Thorsten Simon, Georg J. Mayr, and Tobias Hell
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1141–1153, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1141-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1141-2025, 2025
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As lightning is a brief and localized event, it is not explicitly resolved in atmospheric models. Instead, expert-based auxiliary descriptions are used to assess it. This study explores how AI can improve our understanding of lightning without relying on traditional expert knowledge. We reveal that AI independently identified the key factors known to experts as essential for lightning in the Alps region. This shows how knowledge discovery could be sped up in areas with limited expert knowledge.
David Patoulias, Kalliopi Florou, and Spyros N. Pandis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1103–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1103-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1103-2025, 2025
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The effect of the assumed atmospheric nucleation mechanism on particle number concentrations and size distribution was investigated. Two quite different mechanisms involving sulfuric acid and ammonia or a biogenic organic vapor gave quite similar results which were consistent with measurements at 26 measurement stations across Europe. The number of larger particles that serve as cloud condensation nuclei showed little sensitivity to the assumed nucleation mechanism.
Tim Radke, Susanne Fuchs, Christian Wilms, Iuliia Polkova, and Marc Rautenhaus
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1017–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1017-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1017-2025, 2025
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In our study, we built upon previous work to investigate the patterns artificial intelligence (AI) learns to detect atmospheric features like tropical cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs). As primary objective, we adopt a method to explain the AI used and investigate the plausibility of learned patterns. We find that plausible patterns are learned for both TCs and ARs. Hence, the chosen method is very useful for gaining confidence in the AI-based detection of atmospheric features.
Raphaël Périllat, Sylvain Girard, and Irène Korsakissok
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3838, 2025
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We developed a method to improve decision-making during nuclear crises by predicting the spread of radiation more efficiently. Existing approaches are often too slow, especially when analyzing complex data like radiation maps. Our method combines techniques to simplify these maps and predict them quickly using statistical tools. This approach could help authorities respond faster and more accurately in emergencies, reducing risks to the population and the environment.
Shaofeng Hua, Gang Chen, Baojun Chen, Mingshan Li, and Xin Xu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3834, 2025
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Hail forecasting using numerical models remains a challenge. In this study, we found that the commonly used graupel-to-hail conversion parameterization method led to hail overforecasting in heavy rainfall cases where no hail was observed. By incorporating the spongy wet growth process, we successfully mitigated hail overforecasting. The modified scheme also produced hail in real hail events. This research contributes to a better understanding of hail formation.
Stefan Noll, Carsten Schmidt, Patrick Hannawald, Wolfgang Kausch, and Stefan Kimeswenger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3512, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3512, 2025
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Non-thermal emission from chemical reactions in the Earth's middle und upper atmosphere strongly contributes to the brightness of the night sky below about 2.3 µm. The new Paranal Airglow Line and Continuum Emission model calculates the emission spectrum and its variability with an unprecedented accuracy. Relying on a large spectroscopic data set from astronomical spectrographs and theoretical molecular/atomic data, it is valuable for airglow research and astronomical observatories.
Felipe Cifuentes, Henk Eskes, Enrico Dammers, Charlotte Bryan, and Folkert Boersma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 621–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-621-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-621-2025, 2025
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We tested the capability of the flux divergence approach (FDA) to reproduce known NOx emissions using synthetic NO2 satellite column retrievals from high-resolution model simulations. The FDA accurately reproduced NOx emissions when column observations were limited to the boundary layer and when the variability of the NO2 lifetime, the NOx : NO2 ratio, and NO2 profile shapes were correctly modeled. This introduces strong model dependency, reducing the simplicity of the original FDA formulation.
Stefano Ubbiali, Christian Kühnlein, Christoph Schär, Linda Schlemmer, Thomas C. Schulthess, Michael Staneker, and Heini Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 529–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, 2025
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We explore a high-level programming model for porting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model codes to graphics processing units (GPUs). We present a Python rewrite with the domain-specific library GT4Py (GridTools for Python) of two renowned cloud microphysics schemes and the associated tangent-linear and adjoint algorithms. We find excellent portability, competitive GPU performance, robust execution on diverse computing architectures, and enhanced code maintainability and user productivity.
Pieter Rijsdijk, Henk Eskes, Arlene Dingemans, K. Folkert Boersma, Takashi Sekiya, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, and Sander Houweling
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 483–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-483-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-483-2025, 2025
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Clustering high-resolution satellite observations into superobservations improves model validation and data assimilation applications. In our paper, we derive quantitative uncertainties for satellite NO2 column observations based on knowledge of the retrievals, including a detailed analysis of spatial error correlations and representativity errors. The superobservations and uncertainty estimates are tested in a global chemical data assimilation system and are found to improve the forecasts.
Dario Di Santo, Cenlin He, Fei Chen, and Lorenzo Giovannini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 433–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-433-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-433-2025, 2025
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This paper presents the Machine Learning-based Automated Multi-method Parameter Sensitivity and Importance analysis Tool (ML-AMPSIT), a computationally efficient tool that uses machine learning algorithms for sensitivity analysis in atmospheric models. It is tested with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) land surface model to investigate sea breeze circulation sensitivity to vegetation-related parameters.
Robert Schoetter, Robin James Hogan, Cyril Caliot, and Valéry Masson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 405–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, 2025
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Radiation is relevant to the atmospheric impact on people and infrastructure in cities as it can influence the urban heat island, building energy consumption, and human thermal comfort. A new urban radiation model, assuming a more realistic form of urban morphology, is coupled to the urban climate model Town Energy Balance (TEB). The new TEB is evaluated with a reference radiation model for a variety of urban morphologies, and an improvement in the simulated radiative observables is found.
Qike Yang, Chun Zhao, Jiawang Feng, Gudongze Li, Jun Gu, Zihan Xia, Mingyue Xu, and Zining Yang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-229, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-229, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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This study presents the first comprehensive evaluation of unstructured meshes using the iAMAS model over Antarctica, encompassing both surface and upper-level meteorological fields. Comparison with ERA5 and observational data reveals that the iAMAS model performs well in simulating the Antarctic atmosphere; iAMAS demonstrates comparable, and in some cases superior, performance in simulating temperature and wind speed in East Antarctica when compared to ERA5.
Zebediah Engberg, Roger Teoh, Tristan Abbott, Thomas Dean, Marc E. J. Stettler, and Marc L. Shapiro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 253–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025, 2025
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Contrails forming in some atmospheric conditions may persist and become strongly warming cirrus, while in other conditions may be neutral or cooling. We develop a contrail forecast model to predict contrail climate forcing for any arbitrary point in space and time and explore integration into flight planning and air traffic management. This approach enables contrail interventions to target high-probability high-climate-impact regions and reduce unintended consequences of contrail management.
Nils Eingrüber, Alina Domm, Wolfgang Korres, and Karl Schneider
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 141–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-141-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-141-2025, 2025
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Climate change adaptation measures like unsealings can reduce urban heat stress. As grass grid pavers have never been parameterized for microclimate model simulations with ENVI-met, a new parameterization was developed based on field measurements. To analyse the cooling potential, scenario analyses were performed for a densely developed area in Cologne. Statistically significant average cooling effects of up to −11.1 K were found for surface temperature and up to −2.9 K for 1 m air temperature.
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Short summary
To detect anomalous radioactivity in the environment, it is paramount that we understand the natural background level. In this work, we propose a statistical model to describe the most likely background level and the associated uncertainty in a network of dose rate detectors. We train, verify, and validate the model using real environmental data. Using the model, we show that we can correctly predict the background level in a subset of the detector network during a known
anomalous event.
To detect anomalous radioactivity in the environment, it is paramount that we understand the...
