Articles | Volume 18, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
27 Mar 2025
Development and technical paper |
| 27 Mar 2025
| 27 Mar 2025
A Bayesian method for predicting background radiation at environmental monitoring stations in local-scale networks
Jens Peter Karolus Wenceslaus Frankemölle
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, SCK CEN, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol, Belgium
Department of Mechanical Engineering, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 300, 3000 Leuven, Belgium
Johan Camps
Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, SCK CEN, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol, Belgium
Pieter De Meutter
Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, SCK CEN, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol, Belgium
Johan Meyers
Department of Mechanical Engineering, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 300, 3000 Leuven, Belgium
Related authors
No articles found.
Stefan Ivanell, Warit Chanprasert, Luca Lanzilao, James Bleeg, Johan Meyers, Antoine Mathieu, Søren Juhl Andersen, Rem-Sophia Mouradi, Eric Dupont, Hugo Olivares-Espinosa, and Niels Troldborg
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-88, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-88, 2025
Preprint under review for WES
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how the height of the atmosphere's boundary layer impacts wind farm performance, focusing on how this factor influences energy output. By simulating different boundary layer heights and conditions, the research reveals that deeper layers promote better energy recovery. The findings highlight the importance of considering atmospheric conditions when simulating wind farms to maximize energy efficiency, offering valuable insights for the wind energy industry.
Théo Delvaux and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 613–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-613-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-613-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The work explores the potential for wind farm load reduction and power maximization. We carried out a series of high-fidelity large-eddy simulations for a wide range of atmospheric conditions and operating regimes. Because of turbine-scale interactions and large-scale effects, we observed that maximum power extraction is achieved at regimes lower than the Betz operating point. Thus, we proposed three simple approaches with which thrust significantly decreases with only a limited impact on power.
Andrew Kirby, Takafumi Nishino, Luca Lanzilao, Thomas D. Dunstan, and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 435–450, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-435-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-435-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Traditionally, the aerodynamic loss of wind farm efficiency is classified into wake loss and farm blockage loss. This study, using high-fidelity simulations, shows that neither of these two losses is well correlated with the overall farm efficiency. We propose new measures called turbine-scale efficiency and farm-scale efficiency to better describe turbine–wake effects and farm–atmosphere interactions. This study suggests the importance of better modelling farm-scale loss in future studies.
Olivier Ndindayino, Augustin Puel, and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-6, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for WES
Short summary
Short summary
Our aim is to understand the relationship between flow blockage and improved wind farm efficiency using large-eddy simulations, as well as developing an analytical model that shows promise for improving turbine power predictions under blockage. We found that blockage enhances turbine power and thrust by inducing a favourable pressure drop across the turbine row, while simultaneously inducing an unfavourable pressure increase downstream which has minimal direct impact on far wake development.
Stijn Van Leuven, Pieter De Meutter, Johan Camps, Piet Termonia, and Andy Delcloo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4057, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use deposition measurements to trace the source of the radioactive isotope Ru-106 released into the atmosphere in 2017, which led to detections in Europe and other parts of the northern hemisphere. Most frequently, measurements of air concentration are used for such purposes. Our research shows that while air concentration data can provide more precise results, deposition measurements can still effectively pinpoint the release location, offering a less costly and more versatile alternative.
Majid Bastankhah, Marcus Becker, Matthew Churchfield, Caroline Draxl, Jay Prakash Goit, Mehtab Khan, Luis A. Martinez Tossas, Johan Meyers, Patrick Moriarty, Wim Munters, Asim Önder, Sara Porchetta, Eliot Quon, Ishaan Sood, Nicole van Lipzig, Jan-Willem van Wingerden, Paul Veers, and Simon Watson
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 2171–2174, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-2171-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-2171-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Dries Allaerts was born on 19 May 1989 and passed away at his home in Wezemaal, Belgium, on 10 October 2024 after battling cancer. Dries started his wind energy career in 2012 and had a profound impact afterward on the community, in terms of both his scientific realizations and his many friendships and collaborations in the field. His scientific acumen, open spirit of collaboration, positive attitude towards life, and playful and often cheeky sense of humor will be deeply missed by many.
Jérôme Neirynck, Jonas Van de Walle, Ruben Borgers, Sebastiaan Jamaer, Johan Meyers, Ad Stoffelen, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 1695–1711, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1695-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1695-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we assess how mesoscale weather systems influence wind speed variations and their impact on offshore wind energy production fluctuations. We have observed, for instance, that weather systems originating over land lead to sea wind speed variations. Additionally, we noted that power fluctuations are typically more significant in summer, despite potentially larger winter wind speed variations. These findings are valuable for grid management and optimizing renewable energy deployment.
Ruben Borgers, Marieke Dirksen, Ine L. Wijnant, Andrew Stepek, Ad Stoffelen, Naveed Akhtar, Jérôme Neirynck, Jonas Van de Walle, Johan Meyers, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 697–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-697-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-697-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Wind farms at sea are becoming more densely clustered, which means that next to individual wind turbines interfering with each other in a single wind farm also interference between wind farms becomes important. Using a climate model, this study shows that the efficiency of wind farm clusters and the interference between the wind farms in the cluster depend strongly on the properties of the individual wind farms and are also highly sensitive to the spacing between the wind farms.
Nick Janssens and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 65–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-65-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-65-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Proper wind farm control may vastly contribute to Europe's plan to go carbon neutral. However, current strategies don't account for turbine–wake interactions affecting power extraction. High-fidelity models (e.g., LES) are needed to accurately model this but are considered too slow in practice. By coarsening the resolution, we were able to design an efficient LES-based controller with real-time potential. This may allow us to bridge the gap towards practical wind farm control in the near future.
Stijn Van Leuven, Pieter De Meutter, Johan Camps, Piet Termonia, and Andy Delcloo
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5323–5338, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5323-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5323-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation collects airborne particles and deposits these on the ground. This process is called wet deposition and greatly determines how airborne radioactive particles (released routinely or accidentally) contaminate the surface. In this work we present a new method to improve the calculation of wet deposition in computer models. We apply this method to the existing model FLEXPART by simulating the Fukushima nuclear accident (2011) and show that it improves the simulation of wet deposition.
Ishaan Sood, Elliot Simon, Athanasios Vitsas, Bart Blockmans, Gunner C. Larsen, and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2469–2489, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2469-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2469-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we conduct a validation study to compare a numerical solver against measurements obtained from the offshore Lillgrund wind farm. By reusing a previously developed inflow turbulent dataset, the atmospheric conditions at the wind farm were recreated, and the general performance trends of the turbines were captured well. The work increases the reliability of numerical wind farm solvers while highlighting the challenges of accurately representing large wind farms using such solvers.
Paul Veers, Katherine Dykes, Sukanta Basu, Alessandro Bianchini, Andrew Clifton, Peter Green, Hannele Holttinen, Lena Kitzing, Branko Kosovic, Julie K. Lundquist, Johan Meyers, Mark O'Malley, William J. Shaw, and Bethany Straw
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2491–2496, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2491-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Wind energy will play a central role in the transition of our energy system to a carbon-free future. However, many underlying scientific issues remain to be resolved before wind can be deployed in the locations and applications needed for such large-scale ambitions. The Grand Challenges are the gaps in the science left behind during the rapid growth of wind energy. This article explains the breadth of the unfinished business and introduces 10 articles that detail the research needs.
Johan Meyers, Carlo Bottasso, Katherine Dykes, Paul Fleming, Pieter Gebraad, Gregor Giebel, Tuhfe Göçmen, and Jan-Willem van Wingerden
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2271–2306, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2271-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2271-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a comprehensive overview of the state of the art and the outstanding challenges in wind farm flow control, thus identifying the key research areas that could further enable commercial uptake and success. To this end, we have structured the discussion on challenges and opportunities into four main areas: (1) insight into control flow physics, (2) algorithms and AI, (3) validation and industry implementation, and (4) integrating control with system design
(co-design).
Konstanze Kölle, Tuhfe Göçmen, Irene Eguinoa, Leonardo Andrés Alcayaga Román, Maria Aparicio-Sanchez, Ju Feng, Johan Meyers, Vasilis Pettas, and Ishaan Sood
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2181–2200, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2181-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2181-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The paper studies wind farm flow control (WFFC) in simulations with variable electricity prices. The results indicate that considering the electricity price in the operational strategy can be beneficial with respect to the gained income compared to focusing on the power gain only. Moreover, revenue maximization by balancing power production and structural load reduction is demonstrated at the example of a single wind turbine.
Tuhfe Göçmen, Filippo Campagnolo, Thomas Duc, Irene Eguinoa, Søren Juhl Andersen, Vlaho Petrović, Lejla Imširović, Robert Braunbehrens, Jaime Liew, Mads Baungaard, Maarten Paul van der Laan, Guowei Qian, Maria Aparicio-Sanchez, Rubén González-Lope, Vinit V. Dighe, Marcus Becker, Maarten J. van den Broek, Jan-Willem van Wingerden, Adam Stock, Matthew Cole, Renzo Ruisi, Ervin Bossanyi, Niklas Requate, Simon Strnad, Jonas Schmidt, Lukas Vollmer, Ishaan Sood, and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 1791–1825, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1791-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1791-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The FarmConners benchmark is the first of its kind to bring a wide variety of data sets, control settings, and model complexities for the (initial) assessment of wind farm flow control benefits. Here we present the first part of the benchmark results for three blind tests with large-scale rotors and 11 participating models in total, via direct power comparisons at the turbines as well as the observed or estimated power gain at the wind farm level under wake steering control strategy.
Koen Devesse, Luca Lanzilao, Sebastiaan Jamaer, Nicole van Lipzig, and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 1367–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1367-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1367-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent research suggests that offshore wind farms might form such a large obstacle to the wind that it already decelerates before reaching the first turbines. Part of this phenomenon could be explained by gravity waves. Research on these gravity waves triggered by mountains and hills has found that variations in the atmospheric state with altitude can have a large effect on how they behave. This paper is the first to take the impact of those vertical variations into account for wind farms.
Thomas Haas, Jochem De Schutter, Moritz Diehl, and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 1093–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1093-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we study parks of large-scale airborne wind energy systems using a virtual flight simulator. The virtual flight simulator combines numerical techniques from flow simulation and kite control. Using advanced control algorithms, the systems can operate efficiently in the park despite turbulent flow conditions. For the three configurations considered in the study, we observe significant wake effects, reducing the power yield of the parks.
Pieter De Meutter, Ian Hoffman, and Kurt Ungar
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1237–1252, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1237-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1237-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Inverse atmospheric transport modelling is an important tool in several disciplines. However, the specification of atmospheric transport model error remains challenging. In this paper, we employ a state-of-the-art ensemble technique combined with a state-of-the-art Bayesian inference algorithm to infer point sources. Our research helps to fill the gap in our understanding of model error in the context of inverse atmospheric transport modelling.
Luca Lanzilao and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 247–271, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-247-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-247-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This research paper investigates the potential of thrust set-point optimization in large wind farms for mitigating gravity-wave-induced blockage effects for the first time, with the aim of increasing the wind-farm energy extraction. The optimization tool is applied to almost 2000 different atmospheric states. Overall, power gains above 4 % are observed for 77 % of the cases.
Wim Munters and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci., 3, 409–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-409-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-409-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Wake interactions in wind farms result in power losses for downstream turbines. We aim to mitigate these losses through coordinated control of the induced slowdown of the wind by each turbine. We further analyze results from earlier work towards the utilization of such control strategies in practice. Coherent vortex shedding is identified and mimicked by a sinusoidal control. The latter is shown to increase power in downstream turbines and is robust to turbine spacing and turbulence intensity.
Sjoerd Boersma, Bart Doekemeijer, Mehdi Vali, Johan Meyers, and Jan-Willem van Wingerden
Wind Energ. Sci., 3, 75–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-75-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-75-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Controlling the flow within wind farms to reduce the fatigue loads and provide grid facilities such as the delivery of a demanded power is a challenging control problem due to the underlying time-varying non-linear wake dynamics. In this paper, a control-oriented dynamical wind farm model is presented and validated with high-fidelity wind farm models. In contrast to the latter models, the model presented in this work is computationally efficient and hence suitable for online wind farm control.
Carl R. Shapiro, Johan Meyers, Charles Meneveau, and Dennice F. Gayme
Wind Energ. Sci., 3, 11–24, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-11-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-11-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the capability of wind farms to track a power reference signal to help ensure reliable power grid operations. The wind farm controller is based on a simple dynamic wind farm model and tested using high-fidelity simulations. We find that the dynamic nature of the wind farm model is vital for tracking the power signal, and the controlled wind farm would pass industry performance tests in most cases.
Vahid S. Bokharaie, Pieter Bauweraerts, and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci., 1, 311–325, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-1-311-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-1-311-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Given a wind farm with known dimensions and number of wind turbines, we try to find the optimum positioning of wind turbines that maximises wind-farm energy production. We propose an optimisation approach that is based on a hybrid combination of large-eddy simulation (LES) and the Jensen model; in this approach optimisation is mainly performed using the Jensen model, and LES is used at a few points only during optimisation for online tuning of the Jensen model.
Hendrik Wouters, Matthias Demuzere, Ulrich Blahak, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Bino Maiheu, Johan Camps, Daniël Tielemans, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3027–3054, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3027-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3027-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A methodology is presented for translating three-dimensional information of urban areas into land-surface parameters that can be easily employed in atmospheric modelling. As demonstrated with the COSMO-CLM model for a Belgian summer, it enables them to represent urban heat islands and their dependency on urban design with a low computational cost. It allows for efficiently incorporating urban information systems (e.g., WUDAPT) into climate change assessment and numerical weather prediction.
Related subject area
Atmospheric sciences
Integrated Methane Inversion (IMI) 2.0: an improved research and stakeholder tool for monitoring total methane emissions with high resolution worldwide using TROPOMI satellite observations
HTAP3 Fires: towards a multi-model, multi-pollutant study of fire impacts
Pochva: a new hydro-thermal process model in soil, snow, and vegetation for application in atmosphere numerical models
ClimKern v1.2: a new Python package and kernel repository for calculating radiative feedbacks
Accounting for effects of coagulation and model uncertainties in particle number concentration estimates based on measurements from sampling lines – a Bayesian inversion approach with SLIC v1.0
Top-down CO emission estimates using TROPOMI CO data in the TM5-4DVAR (r1258) inverse modeling suit
The Multi-Compartment Hg Modeling and Analysis Project (MCHgMAP): mercury modeling to support international environmental policy
Similarity-based analysis of atmospheric organic compounds for machine learning applications
Porting the Meso-NH atmospheric model on different GPU architectures for the next generation of supercomputers (version MESONH-v55-OpenACC)
Estimation of aerosol and cloud radiative heating rate in the tropical stratosphere using a radiative kernel method
Evaluation of dust emission and land surface schemes in predicting a mega Asian dust storm over South Korea using WRF-Chem
Sensitivity studies of a four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter coupled with WRF-Chem version 3.9.1 for improving particulate matter simulation accuracy
Inclusion of the ECMWF ecRad radiation scheme (v1.5.0) in the MAR (v3.14), regional evaluation for Belgium, and assessment of surface shortwave spectral fluxes at Uccle
Development of a fast radiative transfer model for ground-based microwave radiometers (ARMS-gb v1.0): validation and comparison to RTTOV-gb
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) High-Resolution Global Forecast Model version 1: an attempt to resolve monsoon prediction deadlock
Cell-tracking-based framework for assessing nowcasting model skill in reproducing growth and decay of convective rainfall
NeuralMie (v1.0): an aerosol optics emulator
Simulation performance of planetary boundary layer schemes in WRF v4.3.1 for near-surface wind over the western Sichuan Basin: a single-site assessment
FootNet v1.0: development of a machine learning emulator of atmospheric transport
Updates and evaluation of NOAA's online-coupled air quality model version 7 (AQMv7) within the Unified Forecast System
Quantifying the analysis uncertainty for nowcasting application
Improving the ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) in the Community Inversion Framework: a case study with ICON-ART 2024.01
The MESSy DWARF (based on MESSy v2.55.2)
An enhanced emission module for the PALM model system 23.10 with application for PM10 emission from urban domestic heating
Identifying lightning processes in ERA5 soundings with deep learning
Sensitivity of predicted ultrafine particle size distributions in Europe to different nucleation rate parameterizations using PMCAMx-UF v2.2
Explaining neural networks for detection of tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers in gridded atmospheric simulation data
Mitigating Hail Overforecasting in the 2-Moment Milbrandt-Yau Microphysics Scheme (v2.25.2_beta_04) in WRF (v4.5.1) by Incorporating the Graupel Spongy Wet Growth Process (MY2_GSWG v1.0)
PALACE v1.0: Paranal Airglow Line And Continuum Emission model
Accurate space-based NOx emission estimates with the flux divergence approach require fine-scale model information on local oxidation chemistry and profile shapes
Exploring a high-level programming model for the NWP domain using ECMWF microphysics schemes
Quantifying uncertainties in satellite NO2 superobservations for data assimilation and model evaluation
ML-AMPSIT: Machine Learning-based Automated Multi-method Parameter Sensitivity and Importance analysis Tool
Coupling the urban canopy model TEB (SURFEXv9.0) with the radiation model SPARTACUS-Urbanv0.6.1 for more realistic urban radiative exchange calculation
Forecasting contrail climate forcing for flight planning and air traffic management applications: the CocipGrid model in pycontrails 0.51.0
Simulation of the heat mitigation potential of unsealing measures in cities by parameterizing grass grid pavers for urban microclimate modelling with ENVI-met (V5)
AI-NAOS: an AI-based nonspherical aerosol optical scheme for the chemical weather model GRAPES_Meso5.1/CUACE
Orbital-Radar v1.0.0: a tool to transform suborbital radar observations to synthetic EarthCARE cloud radar data
Modelling extensive green roof CO2 exchanges in the TEB urban canopy model
The Modular and Integrated Data Assimilation System at Environment and Climate Change Canada (MIDAS v3.9.1)
A new set of indicators for model evaluation complementing to FAIRMODE’s MQO
Modeling of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from global to regional scales: model development (IAP-AACM_PAH v1.0) and investigation of health risks in 2013 and 2018 in China
LIMA (v2.0): A full two-moment cloud microphysical scheme for the mesoscale non-hydrostatic model Meso-NH v5-6
A dynamical process-based model for quantifying global agricultural ammonia emissions – AMmonia–CLIMate v1.0 (AMCLIM v1.0) – Part 2: livestock farming
Least travel time ray tracer, version Two (LTT v2) adapted to the grid geometry of the OpenIFS atmospheric model
SLUCM+BEM (v1.0): a simple parameterisation for dynamic anthropogenic heat and electricity consumption in WRF-Urban (v4.3.2)
Carbon dioxide plume dispersion simulated at hectometer scale using DALES: model formulation and observational evaluation
NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0: a novel hybrid nonlinear data assimilation system for improved simulation of PM2.5 chemical components
Source-specific bias correction of US background and anthropogenic ozone modeled in CMAQ
Observational operator for fair model evaluation with ground NO2 measurements
Lucas A. Estrada, Daniel J. Varon, Melissa Sulprizio, Hannah Nesser, Zichong Chen, Nicholas Balasus, Sarah E. Hancock, Megan He, James D. East, Todd A. Mooring, Alexander Oort Alonso, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Ilse Aben, Sabour Baray, Kevin W. Bowman, John R. Worden, Felipe J. Cardoso-Saldaña, Emily Reidy, and Daniel J. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3311–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3311-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3311-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Reducing emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, is a top policy concern for mitigating anthropogenic climate change. The Integrated Methane Inversion (IMI) is an advanced, cloud-based software that translates satellite observations into actionable emissions data. Here we present IMI version 2.0 with vastly expanded capabilities. These updates enable a wider range of scientific and stakeholder applications from individual basin to global scales with continuous emissions monitoring.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Tim Butler, Jose A. Adame, Rupal Ambulkar, Steve R. Arnold, Rebecca R. Buchholz, Benjamin Gaubert, Douglas S. Hamilton, Min Huang, Hayley Hung, Johannes W. Kaiser, Jacek W. Kaminski, Christoph Knote, Gerbrand Koren, Jean-Luc Kouassi, Meiyun Lin, Tianjia Liu, Jianmin Ma, Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon, Elisa Bergas Masso, Jessica L. McCarty, Mariano Mertens, Mark Parrington, Helene Peiro, Pallavi Saxena, Saurabh Sonwani, Vanisa Surapipith, Damaris Y. T. Tan, Wenfu Tang, Veerachai Tanpipat, Kostas Tsigaridis, Christine Wiedinmyer, Oliver Wild, Yuanyu Xie, and Paquita Zuidema
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3265–3309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3265-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3265-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The multi-model experiment design of the HTAP3 Fires project takes a multi-pollutant approach to improving our understanding of transboundary transport of wildland fire and agricultural burning emissions and their impacts. The experiments are designed with the goal of answering science policy questions related to fires. The options for the multi-model approach, including inputs, outputs, and model setup, are discussed, and the official recommendations for the project are presented.
Oxana Drofa
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3175–3209, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3175-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3175-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the result of many years of effort of the author, who developed an original mathematical numerical model of heat and moisture exchange processes in soil, vegetation, and snow. The author relied on her 30 years of research experience in atmospheric numerical modelling. The presented model is the fruit of the author's research on physical processes at the surface–atmosphere interface and their numerical approximation and aims at improving numerical weather forecasting and climate simulations.
Tyler P. Janoski, Ivan Mitevski, Ryan J. Kramer, Michael Previdi, and Lorenzo M. Polvani
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3065–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3065-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3065-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We developed ClimKern, a Python package and radiative kernel repository, to simplify calculating radiative feedbacks and make climate sensitivity studies more reproducible. Testing of ClimKern with sample climate model data reveals that radiative kernel choice may be more important than previously thought, especially in polar regions. Our work highlights the need for kernel sensitivity analyses to be included in future studies.
Matti Niskanen, Aku Seppänen, Henri Oikarinen, Miska Olin, Panu Karjalainen, Santtu Mikkonen, and Kari Lehtinen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2983–3001, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2983-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2983-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Particle size is a key factor determining the properties of aerosol particles which have a major influence on the climate and on human health. When measuring the particle sizes, however, sometimes the sampling lines that transfer the aerosol to the measurement device distort the size distribution, making the measurement unreliable. We propose a method to correct for the distortions and estimate the true particle sizes, improving measurement accuracy.
Johann Rasmus Nüß, Nikos Daskalakis, Fabian Günther Piwowarczyk, Angelos Gkouvousis, Oliver Schneising, Michael Buchwitz, Maria Kanakidou, Maarten C. Krol, and Mihalis Vrekoussis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2861–2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2861-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2861-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate carbon monoxide emissions through inverse modeling, an approach where measurements of tracers in the atmosphere are fed to a model to calculate backwards in time (inverse) where the tracers came from. We introduce measurements from a new satellite instrument and show that, in most places globally, these on their own sufficiently constrain the emissions. This alleviates the need for additional datasets, which could shorten the delay for future carbon monoxide source estimates.
Ashu Dastoor, Hélène Angot, Johannes Bieser, Flora Brocza, Brock Edwards, Aryeh Feinberg, Xinbin Feng, Benjamin Geyman, Charikleia Gournia, Yipeng He, Ian M. Hedgecock, Ilia Ilyin, Jane Kirk, Che-Jen Lin, Igor Lehnherr, Robert Mason, David McLagan, Marilena Muntean, Peter Rafaj, Eric M. Roy, Andrei Ryjkov, Noelle E. Selin, Francesco De Simone, Anne L. Soerensen, Frits Steenhuisen, Oleg Travnikov, Shuxiao Wang, Xun Wang, Simon Wilson, Rosa Wu, Qingru Wu, Yanxu Zhang, Jun Zhou, Wei Zhu, and Scott Zolkos
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2747–2860, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2747-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces the Multi-Compartment Mercury (Hg) Modeling and Analysis Project (MCHgMAP) aimed at informing the effectiveness evaluations of two multilateral environmental agreements: the Minamata Convention on Mercury and the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. The experimental design exploits a variety of models (atmospheric, land, oceanic ,and multimedia mass balance models) to assess the short- and long-term influences of anthropogenic Hg releases into the environment.
Hilda Sandström and Patrick Rinke
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2701–2724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2701-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2701-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning has the potential to aid the identification of organic molecules involved in aerosol formation. Yet, progress is stalled by a lack of curated atmospheric molecular datasets. Here, we compared atmospheric compounds with large molecular datasets used in machine learning and found minimal overlap with similarity algorithms. Our result underlines the need for collaborative efforts to curate atmospheric molecular data to facilitate machine learning models in atmospheric sciences.
Juan Escobar, Philippe Wautelet, Joris Pianezze, Florian Pantillon, Thibaut Dauhut, Christelle Barthe, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2679–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2679-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2679-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Meso-NH weather research code is adapted for GPUs using OpenACC, leading to significant performance and energy efficiency improvements. Called MESONH-v55-OpenACC, it includes enhanced memory management, communication optimizations and a new solver. On the AMD MI250X Adastra platform, it achieved up to 6× speedup and 2.3× energy efficiency gain compared to CPUs. Storm simulations at 100 m resolution show positive results, positioning the code for future use on exascale supercomputers.
Jie Gao, Yi Huang, Jonathon S. Wright, Ke Li, Tao Geng, and Qiurun Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2569–2586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2569-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2569-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The aerosol in the upper troposphere and stratosphere is highly variable, and its radiative effect is poorly understood. To estimate this effect, the radiative kernel is constructed and applied. The results show that the kernels can reproduce aerosol radiative effects and are expected to simulate stratospheric aerosol radiative effects. This approach reduces computational expense, is consistent with radiative model calculations, and can be applied to atmospheric models with speed requirements.
Ji Won Yoon, Seungyeon Lee, Ebony Lee, and Seon Ki Park
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2303–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to predict a mega Asian dust storm (ADS) over South Korea on 28–29 March 2021. We assessed combinations of five dust emission and four land surface schemes by analyzing meteorological and air quality variables. The best scheme combination reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) for particulate matter 10 (PM10) by up to 29.6 %, demonstrating the highest performance.
Jianyu Lin, Tie Dai, Lifang Sheng, Weihang Zhang, Shangfei Hai, and Yawen Kong
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2231–2248, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The effectiveness of this assimilation system and its sensitivity to the ensemble member size and length of the assimilation window are investigated. This study advances our understanding of the selection of basic parameters in the four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter assimilation system and the performance of ensemble simulation in a particulate-matter-polluted environment.
Jean-François Grailet, Robin J. Hogan, Nicolas Ghilain, David Bolsée, Xavier Fettweis, and Marilaure Grégoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1965–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The MAR (Modèle Régional Atmosphérique) is a regional climate model used for weather forecasting and studying the climate over various regions. This paper presents an update of MAR thanks to which it can precisely decompose solar radiation, in particular in the UV (ultraviolet) and photosynthesis ranges, both being critical to human health and ecosystems. As a first application of this new capability, this paper presents a method for predicting UV indices with MAR.
Yi-Ning Shi, Jun Yang, Wei Han, Lujie Han, Jiajia Mao, Wanlin Kan, and Fuzhong Weng
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1947–1964, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Direct assimilation of observations from ground-based microwave radiometers (GMRs) holds significant potential for improving forecast accuracy. Radiative transfer models (RTMs) play a crucial role in direct data assimilation. In this study, we introduce a new RTM, the Advanced Radiative Transfer Modeling System – Ground-Based (ARMS-gb), designed to simulate brightness temperatures observed by GMRs along with their Jacobians. Several enhancements have been incorporated to achieve higher accuracy.
R. Phani Murali Krishna, Siddharth Kumar, A. Gopinathan Prajeesh, Peter Bechtold, Nils Wedi, Kumar Roy, Malay Ganai, B. Revanth Reddy, Snehlata Tirkey, Tanmoy Goswami, Radhika Kanase, Sahadat Sarkar, Medha Deshpande, and Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1879–1894, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The High-Resolution Global Forecast Model (HGFM) is an advanced iteration of the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) model. HGFM can produce forecasts at a spatial scale of ~6 km in tropics. It demonstrates improved accuracy in short- to medium-range weather prediction over the Indian region, with notable success in predicting extreme events. Further, the model will be entrusted to operational forecasting agencies after validation and testing.
Jenna Ritvanen, Seppo Pulkkinen, Dmitri Moisseev, and Daniele Nerini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1851–1878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting models struggle with the rapid evolution of heavy rain, and common verification methods are unable to describe how accurately the models predict the growth and decay of heavy rain. We propose a framework to assess model performance. In the framework, convective cells are identified and tracked in the forecasts and observations, and the model skill is then evaluated by comparing differences between forecast and observed cells. We demonstrate the framework with four open-source models.
Andrew Geiss and Po-Lun Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1809–1827, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Particles in the Earth's atmosphere strongly impact the planet's energy budget, and atmosphere simulations require accurate representation of their interaction with light. This work introduces two approaches to represent light scattering by small particles. The first is a scattering simulator based on Mie theory implemented in Python. The second is a neural network emulator that is more accurate than existing methods and is fast enough to be used in climate and weather simulations.
Qin Wang, Bo Zeng, Gong Chen, and Yaoting Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1769–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates the performance of four planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in near-surface wind fields over the Sichuan Basin, China. Using 112 sensitivity experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and focusing on 28 wind events, it is found that wind direction was less sensitive to the PBL schemes. The quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE) scheme captured temporal variations best, while the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ) scheme had the least error in wind speed.
Tai-Long He, Nikhil Dadheech, Tammy M. Thompson, and Alexander J. Turner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1661–1671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
It is computationally expensive to infer greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions using atmospheric observations. This is partly due to the detailed model used to represent atmospheric transport. We demonstrate how a machine learning (ML) model can be used to simulate high-resolution atmospheric transport. This type of ML model will help estimate GHG emissions using dense observations, which are becoming increasingly common with the proliferation of urban monitoring networks and geostationary satellites.
Wei Li, Beiming Tang, Patrick C. Campbell, Youhua Tang, Barry Baker, Zachary Moon, Daniel Tong, Jianping Huang, Kai Wang, Ivanka Stajner, and Raffaele Montuoro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1635–1660, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study describes the updates of NOAA's current UFS-AQMv7 air quality forecast model by incorporating the latest scientific and structural changes in CMAQv5.4. An evaluation during the summer of 2023 shows that the updated model overall improves the simulation of MDA8 O3 by reducing the bias by 8%–12% in the contiguous US. PM2.5 predictions have mixed results due to wildfire, highlighting the need for future refinements.
Yanwei Zhu, Aitor Atencia, Markus Dabernig, and Yong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1545–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Most works have delved into convective weather nowcasting, and only a few works have discussed the nowcasting uncertainty for variables at the surface level. Hence, we proposed a method to estimate uncertainty. Generating appropriate noises associated with the characteristic of the error in analysis can simulate the uncertainty of nowcasting. This method can contribute to the estimation of near–surface analysis uncertainty in both nowcasting applications and ensemble nowcasting development.
Joël Thanwerdas, Antoine Berchet, Lionel Constantin, Aki Tsuruta, Michael Steiner, Friedemann Reum, Stephan Henne, and Dominik Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1505–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Community Inversion Framework (CIF) brings together methods for estimating greenhouse gas fluxes from atmospheric observations. The initial ensemble method implemented in CIF was found to be incomplete and could hardly be compared to other ensemble methods employed in the inversion community. In this paper, we present and evaluate a new implementation of the ensemble mode, building upon the initial developments.
Astrid Kerkweg, Timo Kirfel, Duong H. Do, Sabine Griessbach, Patrick Jöckel, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1265–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Normally, the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) is linked to complete dynamic models to create chemical climate models. However, the modular concept of MESSy and the newly developed DWARF component presented here make it possible to create simplified models that contain only one or a few process descriptions. This is very useful for technical optimisation, such as porting to GPUs, and can be used to create less complex models, such as a chemical box model.
Edward C. Chan, Ilona J. Jäkel, Basit Khan, Martijn Schaap, Timothy M. Butler, Renate Forkel, and Sabine Banzhaf
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1119–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
An enhanced emission module has been developed for the PALM model system, improving flexibility and scalability of emission source representation across different sectors. A model for parametrized domestic emissions has also been included, for which an idealized model run is conducted for particulate matter (PM10). The results show that, in addition to individual sources and diurnal variations in energy consumption, vertical transport and urban topology play a role in concentration distribution.
Gregor Ehrensperger, Thorsten Simon, Georg J. Mayr, and Tobias Hell
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1141–1153, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1141-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1141-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
As lightning is a brief and localized event, it is not explicitly resolved in atmospheric models. Instead, expert-based auxiliary descriptions are used to assess it. This study explores how AI can improve our understanding of lightning without relying on traditional expert knowledge. We reveal that AI independently identified the key factors known to experts as essential for lightning in the Alps region. This shows how knowledge discovery could be sped up in areas with limited expert knowledge.
David Patoulias, Kalliopi Florou, and Spyros N. Pandis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1103–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1103-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1103-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of the assumed atmospheric nucleation mechanism on particle number concentrations and size distribution was investigated. Two quite different mechanisms involving sulfuric acid and ammonia or a biogenic organic vapor gave quite similar results which were consistent with measurements at 26 measurement stations across Europe. The number of larger particles that serve as cloud condensation nuclei showed little sensitivity to the assumed nucleation mechanism.
Tim Radke, Susanne Fuchs, Christian Wilms, Iuliia Polkova, and Marc Rautenhaus
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1017–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1017-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1017-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we built upon previous work to investigate the patterns artificial intelligence (AI) learns to detect atmospheric features like tropical cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs). As primary objective, we adopt a method to explain the AI used and investigate the plausibility of learned patterns. We find that plausible patterns are learned for both TCs and ARs. Hence, the chosen method is very useful for gaining confidence in the AI-based detection of atmospheric features.
Shaofeng Hua, Gang Chen, Baojun Chen, Mingshan Li, and Xin Xu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3834, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hail forecasting using numerical models remains a challenge. In this study, we found that the commonly used graupel-to-hail conversion parameterization method led to hail overforecasting in heavy rainfall cases where no hail was observed. By incorporating the spongy wet growth process, we successfully mitigated hail overforecasting. The modified scheme also produced hail in real hail events. This research contributes to a better understanding of hail formation.
Stefan Noll, Carsten Schmidt, Patrick Hannawald, Wolfgang Kausch, and Stefan Kimeswenger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3512, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3512, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Non-thermal emission from chemical reactions in the Earth's middle und upper atmosphere strongly contributes to the brightness of the night sky below about 2.3 µm. The new Paranal Airglow Line and Continuum Emission model calculates the emission spectrum and its variability with an unprecedented accuracy. Relying on a large spectroscopic data set from astronomical spectrographs and theoretical molecular/atomic data, it is valuable for airglow research and astronomical observatories.
Felipe Cifuentes, Henk Eskes, Enrico Dammers, Charlotte Bryan, and Folkert Boersma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 621–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-621-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-621-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We tested the capability of the flux divergence approach (FDA) to reproduce known NOx emissions using synthetic NO2 satellite column retrievals from high-resolution model simulations. The FDA accurately reproduced NOx emissions when column observations were limited to the boundary layer and when the variability of the NO2 lifetime, the NOx : NO2 ratio, and NO2 profile shapes were correctly modeled. This introduces strong model dependency, reducing the simplicity of the original FDA formulation.
Stefano Ubbiali, Christian Kühnlein, Christoph Schär, Linda Schlemmer, Thomas C. Schulthess, Michael Staneker, and Heini Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 529–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We explore a high-level programming model for porting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model codes to graphics processing units (GPUs). We present a Python rewrite with the domain-specific library GT4Py (GridTools for Python) of two renowned cloud microphysics schemes and the associated tangent-linear and adjoint algorithms. We find excellent portability, competitive GPU performance, robust execution on diverse computing architectures, and enhanced code maintainability and user productivity.
Pieter Rijsdijk, Henk Eskes, Arlene Dingemans, K. Folkert Boersma, Takashi Sekiya, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, and Sander Houweling
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 483–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-483-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-483-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Clustering high-resolution satellite observations into superobservations improves model validation and data assimilation applications. In our paper, we derive quantitative uncertainties for satellite NO2 column observations based on knowledge of the retrievals, including a detailed analysis of spatial error correlations and representativity errors. The superobservations and uncertainty estimates are tested in a global chemical data assimilation system and are found to improve the forecasts.
Dario Di Santo, Cenlin He, Fei Chen, and Lorenzo Giovannini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 433–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-433-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-433-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the Machine Learning-based Automated Multi-method Parameter Sensitivity and Importance analysis Tool (ML-AMPSIT), a computationally efficient tool that uses machine learning algorithms for sensitivity analysis in atmospheric models. It is tested with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) land surface model to investigate sea breeze circulation sensitivity to vegetation-related parameters.
Robert Schoetter, Robin James Hogan, Cyril Caliot, and Valéry Masson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 405–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Radiation is relevant to the atmospheric impact on people and infrastructure in cities as it can influence the urban heat island, building energy consumption, and human thermal comfort. A new urban radiation model, assuming a more realistic form of urban morphology, is coupled to the urban climate model Town Energy Balance (TEB). The new TEB is evaluated with a reference radiation model for a variety of urban morphologies, and an improvement in the simulated radiative observables is found.
Zebediah Engberg, Roger Teoh, Tristan Abbott, Thomas Dean, Marc E. J. Stettler, and Marc L. Shapiro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 253–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Contrails forming in some atmospheric conditions may persist and become strongly warming cirrus, while in other conditions may be neutral or cooling. We develop a contrail forecast model to predict contrail climate forcing for any arbitrary point in space and time and explore integration into flight planning and air traffic management. This approach enables contrail interventions to target high-probability high-climate-impact regions and reduce unintended consequences of contrail management.
Nils Eingrüber, Alina Domm, Wolfgang Korres, and Karl Schneider
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 141–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-141-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-141-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change adaptation measures like unsealings can reduce urban heat stress. As grass grid pavers have never been parameterized for microclimate model simulations with ENVI-met, a new parameterization was developed based on field measurements. To analyse the cooling potential, scenario analyses were performed for a densely developed area in Cologne. Statistically significant average cooling effects of up to −11.1 K were found for surface temperature and up to −2.9 K for 1 m air temperature.
Xuan Wang, Lei Bi, Hong Wang, Yaqiang Wang, Wei Han, Xueshun Shen, and Xiaoye Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 117–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-117-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-117-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Artificial-Intelligence-based Nonspherical Aerosol Optical Scheme (AI-NAOS) was developed to improve the estimation of the aerosol direct radiation effect and was coupled online with a chemical weather model. The AI-NAOS scheme considers black carbon as fractal aggregates and soil dust as super-spheroids, encapsulated with hygroscopic aerosols. Real-case simulations emphasize the necessity of accurately representing nonspherical and inhomogeneous aerosols in chemical weather models.
Lukas Pfitzenmaier, Pavlos Kollias, Nils Risse, Imke Schirmacher, Bernat Puigdomenech Treserras, and Katia Lamer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 101–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-101-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-101-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Python tool Orbital-Radar transfers suborbital radar data (ground-based, airborne, and forward-simulated numerical weather prediction model) into synthetic spaceborne cloud profiling radar data, mimicking platform-specific instrument characteristics, e.g. EarthCARE or CloudSat. The tool's novelty lies in simulating characteristic errors and instrument noise. Thus, existing data sets are transferred into synthetic observations and can be used for satellite calibration–validation studies.
Aurélien Mirebeau, Cécile de Munck, Bertrand Bonan, Christine Delire, Aude Lemonsu, Valéry Masson, and Stephan Weber
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-233, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-233, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
The greening of cities is recommended to limit the effects of climate change. In particular, green roofs can provide numerous environmental benefits, such as urban cooling, water retention and carbon sequestration. The aim of this research is to develop a new module for calculating green roof CO2 fluxes within a model that can already simulate hydrological and thermal processes of such roofs. The calibration and evaluation of this module take advantage of long term experimental data.
Mark Buehner, Jean-Francois Caron, Ervig Lapalme, Alain Caya, Ping Du, Yves Rochon, Sergey Skachko, Maziar Bani Shahabadi, Sylvain Heilliette, Martin Deshaies-Jacques, Weiguang Chang, and Michael Sitwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Modular and Integrated Data Assimilation System (MIDAS) software is described. The flexible design of MIDAS enables both deterministic and ensemble prediction applications for the atmosphere and several other Earth system components. It is currently used for all main operational weather prediction systems in Canada and also for sea ice and sea surface temperature analysis. The use of MIDAS for multiple Earth system components will facilitate future research on coupled data assimilation.
Alexander de Meij, Cornelis Cuvelier, Philippe Thunis, and Enrico Pisoni
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3690, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the relevance and utility indicators developed within FAIRMODE by evaluating 9 CAMS models in calculated air pollutant values. For NO2, the results highlight difficulties at traffic stations. For PM2.5 and PM10 the bias and Winter-Summer gradients reveal issues. O3 evaluation shows that e.g. seasonal gradients are useful. Overall, the indicators provide valuable insights into model limitations, yet there is a need to reconsider the strictness of some indicators for certain pollutants.
Zichen Wu, Xueshun Chen, Zifa Wang, Huansheng Chen, Zhe Wang, Qing Mu, Lin Wu, Wending Wang, Xiao Tang, Jie Li, Ying Li, Qizhong Wu, Yang Wang, Zhiyin Zou, and Zijian Jiang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8885–8907, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8885-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8885-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a model to simulate polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from global to regional scales. The model can reproduce PAH distribution well. The concentration of BaP (indicator species for PAHs) could exceed the target values of 1 ng m-3 over some areas (e.g., in central Europe, India, and eastern China). The change in BaP is lower than that in PM2.5 from 2013 to 2018. China still faces significant potential health risks posed by BaP although the Action Plan has been implemented.
Marie Taufour, Jean-Pierre Pinty, Christelle Barthe, Benoît Vié, and Chien Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8773–8798, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed a complete two-moment version of the LIMA (Liquid Ice Multiple Aerosols) microphysics scheme. We have focused on collection processes, where the hydrometeor number transfer is often estimated in proportion to the mass transfer. The impact of these parameterizations on a convective system and the prospects for more realistic estimates of secondary parameters (reflectivity, hydrometeor size) are shown in a first test on an idealized case.
Jize Jiang, David S. Stevenson, Aimable Uwizeye, Giuseppe Tempio, Alessandra Falcucci, Flavia Casu, and Mark A. Sutton
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3803, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A special model called AMmonia–CLIMate (AMCLIM) has been developed to understand and calculate NH3 emissions from livestock farming. It is estimated that about 30 % of excreted N from livestock was lost due to NH3 emissions from housing, manure management and land application of manure. High NH3 volatilization often occurred in hot regions, while poor management practices also result in significant N losses through NH3 emissions.
Maksym Vasiuta, Angel Navarro Trastoy, Sanam Motlaghzadeh, Lauri Tuppi, Torsten Mayer-Gürr, and Heikki Järvinen
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-136, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Propagation of electromagnetic signals in the Earth's neutral atmosphere inflicts errors in space geodetic observations. To model these errors as accurately as possible, it is necessary to use a signal ray tracing algorithm which is informed of the state of the atmosphere. We developed such algorithm and tested it by modelling errors in GNSS network observations. Our algorithm's main advantage is loss-less utilization of atmospheric information provided by numerical weather prediction models.
Yuya Takane, Yukihiro Kikegawa, Ko Nakajima, and Hiroyuki Kusaka
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8639–8664, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8639-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8639-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new parameterisation for dynamic anthropogenic heat and electricity consumption is described. The model reproduced the temporal variation in and spatial distributions of electricity consumption and temperature well in summer and winter. The partial air conditioning was the most critical factor, significantly affecting the value of anthropogenic heat emission.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Fredrik Jansson, Bart van Stratum, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, and Sander Houweling
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3721, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new simulation platform based on the Dutch Large-Eddy Simulation (DALES) to simulate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their dispersion in the turbulent environments with hectometer resolution. This model incorporates both anthropogenic emission inventory and ecosystem exchanges. Simulation results for the main urban area in the Netherlands demonstrate a strong potential of DALES to enhance CO2 emission modeling, which is important for refining their reduction strategies.
Hongyi Li, Ting Yang, Lars Nerger, Dawei Zhang, Di Zhang, Guigang Tang, Haibo Wang, Yele Sun, Pingqing Fu, Hang Su, and Zifa Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8495–8519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To accurately characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of particulate matter <2.5 µm chemical components, we developed the Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System with the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (NAQPMS-PDAF) v2.0 for chemical components with non-Gaussian and nonlinear properties. NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 has better computing efficiency, excels when used with a small ensemble size, and can significantly improve the simulation performance of chemical components.
T. Nash Skipper, Christian Hogrefe, Barron H. Henderson, Rohit Mathur, Kristen M. Foley, and Armistead G. Russell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8373–8397, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8373-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Chemical transport model simulations are combined with ozone observations to estimate the bias in ozone attributable to US anthropogenic sources and individual sources of US background ozone: natural sources, non-US anthropogenic sources, and stratospheric ozone. Results indicate a positive bias correlated with US anthropogenic emissions during summer in the eastern US and a negative bias correlated with stratospheric ozone during spring.
Li Fang, Jianbing Jin, Arjo Segers, Ke Li, Ji Xia, Wei Han, Baojie Li, Hai Xiang Lin, Lei Zhu, Song Liu, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8267–8282, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Model evaluations against ground observations are usually unfair. The former simulates mean status over coarse grids and the latter the surrounding atmosphere. To solve this, we proposed the new land-use-based representative (LUBR) operator that considers intra-grid variance. The LUBR operator is validated to provide insights that align with satellite measurements. The results highlight the importance of considering fine-scale urban–rural differences when comparing models and observation.
Cited articles
Abril-Pla, O., Andreani, V., Carroll, C., Dong, L., Fonnesbeck, C. J., Kochurov, M., Kumar, R., Lao, J., Luhmann, C. C., Martin, O. A., Osthege, M., Vieira, R., Wiecki, T., and Zinkov, R.: PyMC: a modern, and comprehensive probabilistic programming framework in Python, PeerJ Computer Science, 9, e1516, https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj-cs.1516, 2023. a
Agentschap Digitaal Vlaanderen: Orthofotomozaïek, grootschalig, winteropnamen, kleur, 2013–2015, Vlaanderen, https://www.vlaanderen.be/datavindplaats/catalogus/
orthofotomozaiek-grootschalig-winteropnamen-kleur-2013-2015-vlaanderen, (last access: 25 March 2025), 2016. a
Arahmane, H., Dumazert, J., Barat, E., Dautremer, T., Carrel, F., Dufour, N., and Michel, M.: Statistical approach for radioactivity detection: A brief review, J. Environ. Radioactiv., 272, 107358, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2023.107358, 2024. a
Bergan, T. D.: Radioactive fallout in Norway from atmospheric nuclear weapons tests, J. Environ. Radioactiv., 60, 189–208, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0265-931X(01)00103-5, 2002. a
Breitkreutz, H., Mayr, J., Bleher, M., Seifert, S., and Stöhlker, U.: Identification and quantification of anomalies in environmental gamma dose rate time series using artificial intelligence, J. Environ. Radioactiv., 259–260, 107082, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2022.107082, 2023. a, b
Brennan, S., Mielke, A., and Torney, D.: Radioactive source detection by sensor networks, IEEE T. Nucl. Sci., 52, 813–819, https://doi.org/10.1109/TNS.2005.850487, 2005. a
Chernyavskiy, P., Kendall, G., Wakeford, R., and Little, M.: Spatial prediction of naturally occurring gamma radiation in Great Britain, J. Environ. Radioactiv., 164, 300–311, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2016.07.029, 2016. a
Elson, P., Sales de Andrade, E., Lucas, G., May, R., Hattersley, R., Campbell, E., Comer, R., Dawson, A., Little, B., Raynaud, S., scmc72, Snow, A. D., Igolston, Blay, B., Killick, P., Ibdreyer, Peglar, P., Wilson, N., Andrew, Szymaniak, J., Berchet, A., Bosley, C., Davis, L., Filipe, Krasting, J., Bradbhury, M., stephenworsley, and Kirkham, D.: SciTools/cartopy: REL: v0.24.1, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13905945, 2024. a
European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, De Cort, M., Dubois, G., Fridman, S., Germenchuk, M., Izrael, Y., Janssens, A., Jones, A., Kelly, G., Kvasnikova, E., Matveenko, I., Nazarov, I., Pokumeiko, Y., Sitak, V., Stukin, E., Tabachny, L., Tsaturov, Y., and Avdyushin, S.: Atlas of caesium deposition on Europe after the Chernobyl accident, Publications Office of the European Union, https://op.europa.eu/publication-detail/-/publication/110b15f7-4df8-49a0-856f-be8f681ae9fd (last access: 25 March 2025), 1998. a
Evensen, G., Vossepoel, F. C., and van Leeuwen, P. J.: Kalman Filters and 3DVar, in: Data Assimilation Fundamentals: A Unified Formulation of the State and Parameter Estimation Problem, Springer International Publishing, Cham, 63–71, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-96709-3_6, 2022. a
Federal Agency for Nuclear Control: Telerad, https://www.telerad.be (last access: 25 March 2025), 2024. a
Folly, C. L., Konstantinoudis, G., Mazzei-Abba, A., Kreis, C., Bucher, B., Furrer, R., and Spycher, B. D.: Bayesian spatial modelling of terrestrial radiation in Switzerland, J. Environ. Radioactiv., 233, 106571, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2021.106571, 2021. a
Frankemölle, J. P. K. W., Camps, J., De Meutter, P., Antoine, P., Delcloo, A., Vermeersch, F., and Meyers, J.: Near-range atmospheric dispersion of an anomalous selenium-75 emission, J. Environ. Radioactiv., 255, 107012, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2022.107012, 2022a. a
Frankemölle, J. P. K. W., Camps, J., De Meutter, P., and Meyers, J.: Near-range Gaussian plume modelling for gamma dose rate reconstruction, in: 21st International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes, 27–30 September 2022, Aveiro, Portugal, https://www.harmo.org/Conferences/Proceedings/_Aveiro/publishedSections/00514_172_h21-023-jens-peter-frankemolle.pdf (last access: 25 March 2025), 2022b. a, b
Frankemölle, J. P. K. W., Camps, J., De Meutter, P., and Meyers, J.: Accompanying dataset for: “A Bayesian Method for predicting background radiation at environmental monitoring stations”, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12581795, 2024a. a, b
Frankemölle, J. P. K. W., Camps, J., De Meutter, P., and Meyers, J.: Accompanying software for: “A Bayesian Method for predicting background radiation at environmental monitoring stations”, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12644422, 2024b. a
Gelman, A.: Prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models (comment on article by Browne and Draper), Bayesian Anal., 1, 515–534, https://doi.org/10.1214/06-BA117A, 2006. a
Gelman, A. and Rubin, D. B.: Inference from Iterative Simulation Using Multiple Sequences, Stat. Sci., 7, 457–472, https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1177011136, 1992. a
Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., Dunson, D. B., Vehtari, A., and Rubin, D. B.: Bayesian Data Analysis, in: 3rd Edn., Chapman and Hall/CRC, https://doi.org/10.1201/b16018, 2013. a
Hoffman, M. D. and Gelman, A.: The No-U-Turn Sampler: Adaptively Setting Path Lengths in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, J. Mach. Learn. Res., 15, 1593–1623, 2014. a
Hogg, R., McKean, J., and Craig, A.: Introduction to Mathematical Statistics, ib: 8th Edn., Pearson, ISBN 9780134686998, 2018. a
Holt, W. and Nguyen, D.: Essential Aspects of Bayesian Data Imputation, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4494314, 2023. a, b, c
Howarth, D., Miller, J. K., and Dubrawski, A.: Analyzing the Performance of Bayesian Aggregation Under Erroneous Environmental Beliefs, IEEE T. Nucl. Sci., 69, 1257–1266, https://doi.org/10.1109/TNS.2022.3169990, 2022. a
ICRP: Dose coefficients for external exposures to environmental sources. ICRP Publication 144, Ann. ICRP, https://www.icrp.org/publication.asp?id=ICRP Publication 144 (last access: 25 March 2025), 2020. a
Kumar, R., Carroll, C., Hartikainen, A., and Martin, O.: ArviZ a unified library for exploratory analysis of Bayesian models in Python, Journal of Open Source Software, 4, 1143, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.01143, 2019. a
Lewandowski, D., Kurowicka, D., and Joe, H.: Generating random correlation matrices based on vines and extended onion method, J. Multivariate Anal., 100, 1989–2001, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmva.2009.04.008, 2009. a, b
Liu, Z. and Sullivan, C. J.: Prediction of weather induced background radiation fluctuation with recurrent neural networks, Radiat. Phys. Chem., 155, 275–280, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.radphyschem.2018.03.005, 2019. a
Liu, Z., Abbaszadeh, S., and Sullivan, C. J.: Spatial-temporal modeling of background radiation using mobile sensor networks, PLoS One, 13, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0205092, 2018. a
Livesay, R., Blessinger, C., Guzzardo, T., and Hausladen, P.: Rain-induced increase in background radiation detected by Radiation Portal Monitors, J. Environ. Radioactiv., 137, 137–141, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2014.07.010, 2014. a, b
Martin, O. A., Hartikainen, A., Abril-Pla, O., Carroll, C., Kumar, R., Naeem, R., Arroyuelo, A. Gautam, P., rpgoldman, Banerjea, A., Pasricha, N., Sanjay, R., Gruevski, P., Axen, S., Rochford, A., Mahweshwari, U., Kazantsev, V., Zinkov, R., Phan, D., Matamoros, A. A., Arunava, Shekhar, M., Andorra, A., Carrera, E., Osthege, M., Munoz, H., Gorelli, M. E., Capretto, T., Kunanuntakij, T., and Sarina: ArviZ (v0.18.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10929056, 2024. a
Maurer, C., Baré, J., Kusmierczyk-Michulec, J., Crawford, A., Eslinger, P. W., Seibert, P., Orr, B., Philipp, A., Ross, O., Generoso, S., Achim, P., Schoeppner, M., Malo, A., Ringbom, A., Saunier, O., Quèlo, D., Mathieu, A., Kijima, Y., Stein, A., Chai, T., Ngan, F., Leadbetter, S. J., De Meutter, P., Delcloo, A., Britton, R., Davies, A., Glascoe, L. G., Lucas, D. D., Simpson, M. D., Vogt, P., Kalinowski, M., and Bowyer, T. W.: International challenge to model the long-range transport of radioxenon released from medical isotope production to six Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty monitoring stations, J. Environ. Radioactiv., 192, 667–686, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2018.01.030, 2018. a
Mercier, J.-F., Tracy, B., d'Amours, R., Chagnon, F., Hoffman, I., Korpach, E., Johnson, S., and Ungar, R.: Increased environmental gamma-ray dose rate during precipitation: a strong correlation with contributing air mass, J. Environ. Radioactiv., 100, 527–533, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2009.03.002, 2009. a, b
Michaud, I. J., Schmidt, K., Smith, R. C., and Mattingly, J.: A hierarchical Bayesian model for background variation in radiation source localization, Nucl. Instrum. Meth. A, 1002, 165288, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nima.2021.165288, 2021. a
Natural Earth: Free vector and raster map data, https://www.naturalearthdata.com (last access: 25 March 2025), 2024. a
Nomura, S., Tsubokura, M., Hayano, R., Furutani, T., Yoneoka, D., Kami, M., Kanazawa, Y., and Oikawa, T.: Comparison between Direct Measurements and Modeled Estimates of External Radiation Exposure among School Children 18 to 30 Months after the Fukushima Nuclear Accident in Japan, Environ. Sci. Technol., 49, 1009–1016, https://doi.org/10.1021/es503504y, 2015. a
Park, S. Y. and Bera, A. K.: Maximum entropy autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, J. Econometrics, 150, 219–230, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2008.12.014, 2009. a
Querfeld, R., Hori, M., Weller, A., Degering, D., Shozugawa, K., and Steinhauser, G.: Radioactive Games? Radiation Hazard Assessment of the Tokyo Olympic Summer Games, Environ. Sci. Technol., 54, 11414–11423, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.0c02754, 2020. a
Sangiorgi, M., Hernández-Ceballos, M. A., Jackson, K., Cinelli, G., Bogucarskis, K., De Felice, L., Patrascu, A., and De Cort, M.: The European Radiological Data Exchange Platform (EURDEP): 25 years of monitoring data exchange, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 109–118, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-109-2020, 2020. a
Sonck, M., Desmedt, M., Claes, J., and Sombré, L.: TELERAD: the radiological surveillance network and early warning system in Belgium, in: 12th Congress of the International Radiation Protection Association (IRPA12): Proceedings of a Conference Held in Buenos Aires, Argentina, 19–24 October, 2008, Proceedings Series, International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, https://www.iaea.org/publications/8450/12th-congress-of-the-international-radiation-protection-association-irpa12 (last access: 22 November 2021), 2010. a, b, c
Sportisse, B.: A review of parameterizations for modelling dry deposition and scavenging of radionuclides, Atmos. Environ., 41, 2683–2698, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.11.057, 2007. a
Vehtari, A., Gelman, A., Simpson, D., Carpenter, B., and Bürkner, P.-C.: Rank-Normalization, Folding, and Localization: An Improved
Wiecki, T., Salvatier, J., Vieira, R., Kochurov, M., Patil, A., Osthege, M., Willard, B. T., Engels, B., Martin, O. A., Carroll, C., Seyboldt, A., Rochford, A., Paz, L., rpgoldman, Meyer, K., Coyle, P., Abril-Pla, O., Gorelli, M. E., Andreani, V., Kumar, R., Lao, J., Yoshioka, T., Ho, G., Kluyver, T., Andorra, A., Beauchamp, K., Pananos, D., Spaak, E., and larryshamalama: pymcdevs/pymc: v5.13.1, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10973000, 2024. a
Short summary
To detect anomalous radioactivity in the environment, it is paramount that we understand the natural background level. In this work, we propose a statistical model to describe the most likely background level and the associated uncertainty in a network of dose rate detectors. We train, verify, and validate the model using real environmental data. Using the model, we show that we can correctly predict the background level in a subset of the detector network during a known
anomalous event.
To detect anomalous radioactivity in the environment, it is paramount that we understand the...
