Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 21
Articles | Volume 17, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7751-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7751-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 21
Model experiment description paper
 | 
06 Nov 2024
Model experiment description paper |  | 06 Nov 2024

Development and performance of a high-resolution surface wave and storm surge forecast model: application to a large lake

Laura L. Swatridge, Ryan P. Mulligan, Leon Boegman, and Shiliang Shan

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Cited articles

Anderson, E. J., Fujisaki-Manome, A., Kessler, J., Land, G.A., Chu, P.Y., Kelley, J. G. W., Chen, Y., and Wang, J.: Ice Forecasting in the Next-Generation Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS), J. Mar. Sci. Eng., 6, 123, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6040123, 2018. 
Asher, T. G., Luettich, R. A., Fleming, J. G., and Blandton, B. O.: Low frequency water level correction in storm surge models using data assimilation, Ocean Model., 144, 101483, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2019.101483, 2019. 
Baracchini, T., Wuest, A., and Bouffard, D.: Meteolakes: An operational online three-dimensional forecasting platform for lake hydrodynamics, Water Res., 172.1-12, 115529, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2020.115529, 2020. 
Bender, M. A., Knutson, T. R., Tuleya, R. E., Sirutis, J. J., Vecchi, G. A., Garner, S. T., and Held, I. M.: Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes, Science, 327, 454–458, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1180568, 2010. 
Bilskie, M. V., Asher, T. G., Miller, P. W., Fleming, J. G., Hagen, S. C., and Luettich Jr., R. A.: Real-time simulated storm surge predictions during Hurricane Michael (2018), Weather Forecast., 37, 1085–1102, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0132.1, 2022. 
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We develop an operational forecast system, Coastlines-LO, that can simulate water levels and surface waves in Lake Ontario driven by forecasts of wind speeds and pressure fields from an atmospheric model. The model has relatively low computational requirements, and results compare well with near-real-time observations, as well as with results from other existing forecast systems. Results show that with shorter forecast lengths, storm surge and wave predictions can improve in accuracy.
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