Articles | Volume 17, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7645-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7645-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
01 Nov 2024
Development and technical paper |
| 01 Nov 2024
| 01 Nov 2024
Improvements in the land surface configuration to better simulate seasonal snow cover in the European Alps with the CNRM-AROME (cycle 46) convection-permitting regional climate model
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, CNRM, Centre d'Etudes de la Neige, 38000 Grenoble, France
Cécile Caillaud
CNRM, Météo-France, CNRS, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France
Matthieu Lafaysse
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, CNRM, Centre d'Etudes de la Neige, 38000 Grenoble, France
Adrien Napoly
CNRM, Météo-France, CNRS, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France
Mathieu Fructus
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, CNRM, Centre d'Etudes de la Neige, 38000 Grenoble, France
Antoinette Alias
CNRM, Météo-France, CNRS, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France
Samuel Morin
CNRM, Météo-France, CNRS, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France
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The Cryosphere, 19, 2407–2429, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2407-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2407-2025, 2025
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We generated annual maps of snow melt-out days at 20 m resolution over a period of 38 years from 10 different satellites. This study fills a knowledge gap regarding the evolution of mountain snow in Europe by covering a much longer period and characterizing trends at much higher resolutions than previous studies. We found a trend for earlier melt-out with average reductions of 5.51 d per decade over the French Alps and 4.04 d per decade over the Pyrenees for the period 1986–2023.
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Saharan dust deposits frequently color alpine glaciers orange. Mineral dust reduces snow albedo and increases snow and glaciers melt rate. Using physical modeling, we quantified the impact of dust on the Argentière Glacier over the period 2019–2022. We found that that the contribution of mineral dust to the melt represents between 6 and 12 % of Argentière Glacier summer melt. At specific locations, the impact of dust over one year can rise to an equivalent of 1 meter of melted ice.
Diego Monteiro and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 17, 3617–3660, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3617-2023, 2023
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Beyond directly using in situ observations, often sparsely available in mountain regions, climate model simulations and so-called reanalyses are increasingly used for climate change impact studies. Here we evaluate such datasets in the European Alps from 1950 to 2020, with a focus on snow cover information and its main drivers: air temperature and precipitation. In terms of variability and trends, we identify several limitations and provide recommendations for future use of these datasets.
Matthieu Vernay, Matthieu Lafaysse, Diego Monteiro, Pascal Hagenmuller, Rafife Nheili, Raphaëlle Samacoïts, Deborah Verfaillie, and Samuel Morin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1707–1733, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1707-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1707-2022, 2022
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This paper introduces the latest version of the freely available S2M dataset which provides estimates of both meteorological and snow cover variables, as well as various avalanche hazard diagnostics at different elevations, slopes and aspects for the three main French high-elevation mountainous regions. A complete description of the system and the dataset is provided, as well as an overview of the possible uses of this dataset and an objective assessment of its limitations.
Zacharie Barrou Dumont, Simon Gascoin, Jordi Inglada, Andreas Dietz, Jonas Köhler, Matthieu Lafaysse, Diego Monteiro, Carlo Carmagnola, Arthur Bayle, Jean-Pierre Dedieu, Olivier Hagolle, and Philippe Choler
The Cryosphere, 19, 2407–2429, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2407-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2407-2025, 2025
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We generated annual maps of snow melt-out days at 20 m resolution over a period of 38 years from 10 different satellites. This study fills a knowledge gap regarding the evolution of mountain snow in Europe by covering a much longer period and characterizing trends at much higher resolutions than previous studies. We found a trend for earlier melt-out with average reductions of 5.51 d per decade over the French Alps and 4.04 d per decade over the Pyrenees for the period 1986–2023.
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Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-225, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-225, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
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This article describes a dataset of annual snow depth maximum across Europe, from 1961 to 2015, based on a regional reanalysis. It evaluates the performance of the dataset, against in-situ snow depth observations. This dataset is found to perform well in most environments, with challenges at high elevation and some coastal areas. Assessing the quality of this dataset is necessary in order to use it as a baseline to infer future changes of extreme snow loads under climate change.
Léon Roussel, Marie Dumont, Marion Réveillet, Delphine Six, Marin Kneib, Pierre Nabat, Kevin Fourteau, Diego Monteiro, Simon Gascoin, Emmanuel Thibert, Antoine Rabatel, Jean-Emmanuel Sicart, Mylène Bonnefoy, Luc Piard, Olivier Laarman, Bruno Jourdain, Mathieu Fructus, Matthieu Vernay, and Matthieu Lafaysse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1741, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1741, 2025
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Saharan dust deposits frequently color alpine glaciers orange. Mineral dust reduces snow albedo and increases snow and glaciers melt rate. Using physical modeling, we quantified the impact of dust on the Argentière Glacier over the period 2019–2022. We found that that the contribution of mineral dust to the melt represents between 6 and 12 % of Argentière Glacier summer melt. At specific locations, the impact of dust over one year can rise to an equivalent of 1 meter of melted ice.
Matthieu Vernay, Matthieu Lafaysse, and Clotilde Augros
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 1731–1755, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-1731-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-1731-2025, 2025
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This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the quality of radar-based precipitation estimation in mountainous areas and presents a method to mitigate the main shortcomings identified. It then compares three different ensemble analysis methods that combine radar-based precipitation estimates with forecasts from an ensemble numerical weather prediction model.
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The Cryosphere, 19, 769–792, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-769-2025, 2025
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This study presents an efficient method to improve large-scale snow albedo simulations by considering the spatial variability in light-absorbing particles (LAPs) like black carbon and dust. A global climatology of LAP deposition was created and used to optimize a parameter in the Crocus snow model. Testing at 10 global sites improved albedo predictions by 10 % on average and over 25 % in the Arctic. This method can enhance other snow models' predictions without complex simulations.
Georgina J. Woolley, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Vincent Vionnet, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Philip Marsh, Rosamond Tutton, Branden Walker, Matthieu Lafaysse, and David Pritchard
The Cryosphere, 18, 5685–5711, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5685-2024, 2024
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Parameterisations of Arctic snow processes were implemented into the multi-physics ensemble version of the snow model Crocus (embedded within the Soil, Vegetation, and Snow version 2 land surface model) and evaluated at an Arctic tundra site. Optimal combinations of parameterisations that improved the simulation of density and specific surface area featured modifications that raise wind speeds to increase compaction in surface layers, prevent snowdrift, and increase viscosity in basal layers.
Laura T. Massano, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Gaetani, and Cécile Caillaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4293–4315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, 2024
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Traditional wine-growing regions are threatened by expected climate change. Climate models and observations are used to calculate bioclimatic indices based on both temperature and precipitation. These indices are correlated with grape productivity in two wine-growing regions in Italy. This analysis paves the way for using climate models to study how climate change will affect wine production in the future.
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The Cryosphere, 18, 4607–4632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4607-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4607-2024, 2024
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As many boreal and alpine forests have seasonal snow, models are needed to predict forest snow under future environmental conditions. We have created a new forest snow model by combining existing, very detailed model components for the canopy and the snowpack. We applied it to forests in Switzerland and Finland and showed how complex forest cover leads to a snowpack layering that is very variable in space and time because different processes prevail at different locations in the forest.
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The Cryosphere, 18, 3081–3116, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3081-2024, 2024
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Our study addresses the complex challenge of evaluating distributed alpine snow simulations with snow transport against snow depths from Pléiades stereo imagery and snow melt-out dates from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 satellites. Additionally, we disentangle error contributions between blowing snow, precipitation heterogeneity, and unresolved subgrid variability. Snow transport enhances the snow simulations at high elevations, while precipitation biases are the main error source in other areas.
Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1163–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, 2024
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High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.
Matthieu Baron, Ange Haddjeri, Matthieu Lafaysse, Louis Le Toumelin, Vincent Vionnet, and Mathieu Fructus
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1297–1326, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1297-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1297-2024, 2024
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Increasing the spatial resolution of numerical systems simulating snowpack evolution in mountain areas requires representing small-scale processes such as wind-induced snow transport. We present SnowPappus, a simple scheme coupled with the Crocus snow model to compute blowing-snow fluxes and redistribute snow among grid points at 250 m resolution. In terms of numerical cost, it is suitable for large-scale applications. We present point-scale evaluations of fluxes and snow transport occurrence.
Jari-Pekka Nousu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Giulia Mazzotti, Pertti Ala-aho, Hannu Marttila, Bertrand Cluzet, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, Pasi Kolari, Aaron Boone, Mathieu Fructus, and Samuli Launiainen
The Cryosphere, 18, 231–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-231-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-231-2024, 2024
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The snowpack has a major impact on the land surface energy budget. Accurate simulation of the snowpack energy budget is difficult, and studies that evaluate models against energy budget observations are rare. We compared predictions from well-known models with observations of energy budgets, snow depths and soil temperatures in Finland. Our study identified contrasting strengths and limitations for the models. These results can be used for choosing the right models depending on the use cases.
Samuel Morin, Hugues François, Marion Réveillet, Eric Sauquet, Louise Crochemore, Flora Branger, Étienne Leblois, and Marie Dumont
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4257–4277, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4257-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4257-2023, 2023
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Ski resorts are a key socio-economic asset of several mountain areas. Grooming and snowmaking are routinely used to manage the snow cover on ski pistes, but despite vivid debate, little is known about their impact on water resources downstream. This study quantifies, for the pilot ski resort La Plagne in the French Alps, the impact of grooming and snowmaking on downstream river flow. Hydrological impacts are mostly apparent at the seasonal scale and rather neutral on the annual scale.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Raphaëlle Samacoïts, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 17, 4691–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023, 2023
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We assess projected changes in snowfall extremes in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level for a high-emission scenario. On average, heavy snowfall is projected to decrease below 3000 m and increase above 3600 m, while extreme snowfall is projected to decrease below 2400 m and increase above 3300 m. At elevations in between, an increase is projected until +3 °C of global warming and then a decrease. These results have implications for the management of risks.
Diego Monteiro and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 17, 3617–3660, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3617-2023, 2023
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Beyond directly using in situ observations, often sparsely available in mountain regions, climate model simulations and so-called reanalyses are increasingly used for climate change impact studies. Here we evaluate such datasets in the European Alps from 1950 to 2020, with a focus on snow cover information and its main drivers: air temperature and precipitation. In terms of variability and trends, we identify several limitations and provide recommendations for future use of these datasets.
Marie Dumont, Simon Gascoin, Marion Réveillet, Didier Voisin, François Tuzet, Laurent Arnaud, Mylène Bonnefoy, Montse Bacardit Peñarroya, Carlo Carmagnola, Alexandre Deguine, Aurélie Diacre, Lukas Dürr, Olivier Evrard, Firmin Fontaine, Amaury Frankl, Mathieu Fructus, Laure Gandois, Isabelle Gouttevin, Abdelfateh Gherab, Pascal Hagenmuller, Sophia Hansson, Hervé Herbin, Béatrice Josse, Bruno Jourdain, Irene Lefevre, Gaël Le Roux, Quentin Libois, Lucie Liger, Samuel Morin, Denis Petitprez, Alvaro Robledano, Martin Schneebeli, Pascal Salze, Delphine Six, Emmanuel Thibert, Jürg Trachsel, Matthieu Vernay, Léo Viallon-Galinier, and Céline Voiron
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3075–3094, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3075-2023, 2023
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Saharan dust outbreaks have profound effects on ecosystems, climate, health, and the cryosphere, but the spatial deposition pattern of Saharan dust is poorly known. Following the extreme dust deposition event of February 2021 across Europe, a citizen science campaign was launched to sample dust on snow over the Pyrenees and the European Alps. This campaign triggered wide interest and over 100 samples. The samples revealed the high variability of the dust properties within a single event.
Oscar Dick, Léo Viallon-Galinier, François Tuzet, Pascal Hagenmuller, Mathieu Fructus, Benjamin Reuter, Matthieu Lafaysse, and Marie Dumont
The Cryosphere, 17, 1755–1773, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1755-2023, 2023
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Saharan dust deposition can drastically change the snow color, turning mountain landscapes into sepia scenes. Dust increases the absorption of solar energy by the snow cover and thus modifies the snow evolution and potentially the avalanche risk. Here we show that dust can lead to increased or decreased snowpack stability depending on the snow and meteorological conditions after the deposition event. We also show that wet-snow avalanches happen earlier in the season due to the presence of dust.
Georg Lackner, Florent Domine, Daniel F. Nadeau, Matthieu Lafaysse, and Marie Dumont
The Cryosphere, 16, 3357–3373, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3357-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3357-2022, 2022
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We compared the snowpack at two sites separated by less than 1 km, one in shrub tundra and the other one within the boreal forest. Even though the snowpack was twice as thick at the forested site, we found evidence that the vertical transport of water vapor from the bottom of the snowpack to its surface was important at both sites. The snow model Crocus simulates no water vapor fluxes and consequently failed to correctly simulate the observed density profiles.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1059–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1059-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1059-2022, 2022
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Anticipating risks related to climate extremes is critical for societal adaptation to climate change. In this study, we propose a statistical method in order to estimate future climate extremes from past observations and an ensemble of climate change simulations. We apply this approach to snow load data available in the French Alps at 1500 m elevation and find that extreme snow load is projected to decrease by −2.9 kN m−2 (−50 %) between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for a high-emission scenario.
Matthieu Vernay, Matthieu Lafaysse, Diego Monteiro, Pascal Hagenmuller, Rafife Nheili, Raphaëlle Samacoïts, Deborah Verfaillie, and Samuel Morin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1707–1733, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1707-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1707-2022, 2022
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This paper introduces the latest version of the freely available S2M dataset which provides estimates of both meteorological and snow cover variables, as well as various avalanche hazard diagnostics at different elevations, slopes and aspects for the three main French high-elevation mountainous regions. A complete description of the system and the dataset is provided, as well as an overview of the possible uses of this dataset and an objective assessment of its limitations.
Bertrand Cluzet, Matthieu Lafaysse, César Deschamps-Berger, Matthieu Vernay, and Marie Dumont
The Cryosphere, 16, 1281–1298, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1281-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1281-2022, 2022
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The mountainous snow cover is highly variable at all temporal and spatial scales. Snow cover models suffer from large errors, while snowpack observations are sparse. Data assimilation combines them into a better estimate of the snow cover. A major challenge is to propagate information from observed into unobserved areas. This paper presents a spatialized version of the particle filter, in which information from in situ snow depth observations is successfully used to constrain nearby simulations.
Lucas Berard-Chenu, Hugues François, Emmanuelle George, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 16, 863–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-863-2022, 2022
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This study investigates the past snow reliability (1961–2019) of 16 ski resorts in the French Alps using state-of-the-art snowpack modelling. We used snowmaking investment figures to infer the evolution of snowmaking coverage at the individual ski resort level. Snowmaking improved snow reliability for the core of the winter season for the highest-elevation ski resorts. However it did not counterbalance the decreasing trend in snow cover reliability for lower-elevation ski resorts and in spring.
Georg Lackner, Florent Domine, Daniel F. Nadeau, Annie-Claude Parent, François Anctil, Matthieu Lafaysse, and Marie Dumont
The Cryosphere, 16, 127–142, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-127-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-127-2022, 2022
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The surface energy budget is the sum of all incoming and outgoing energy fluxes at the Earth's surface and has a key role in the climate. We measured all these fluxes for an Arctic snowpack and found that most incoming energy from radiation is counterbalanced by thermal radiation and heat convection while sublimation was negligible. Overall, the snow model Crocus was able to simulate the observed energy fluxes well.
Florent Veillon, Marie Dumont, Charles Amory, and Mathieu Fructus
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7329–7343, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7329-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7329-2021, 2021
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In climate models, the snow albedo scheme generally calculates only a narrowband or broadband albedo. Therefore, we have developed the VALHALLA method to optimize snow spectral albedo calculations through the determination of spectrally fixed radiative variables. The development of VALHALLA v1.0 with the use of the snow albedo model TARTES and the spectral irradiance model SBDART indicates a considerable reduction in calculation time while maintaining an adequate accuracy of albedo values.
Zacharie Barrou Dumont, Simon Gascoin, Olivier Hagolle, Michaël Ablain, Rémi Jugier, Germain Salgues, Florence Marti, Aurore Dupuis, Marie Dumont, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 15, 4975–4980, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4975-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4975-2021, 2021
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Since 2020, the Copernicus High Resolution Snow & Ice Monitoring Service has distributed snow cover maps at 20 m resolution over Europe in near-real time. These products are derived from the Sentinel-2 Earth observation mission, with a revisit time of 5 d or less (cloud-permitting). Here we show the good accuracy of the snow detection over a wide range of regions in Europe, except in dense forest regions where the snow cover is hidden by the trees.
Guillaume Evin, Matthieu Lafaysse, Maxime Taillardat, and Michaël Zamo
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 467–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-467-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-467-2021, 2021
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Forecasting the height of new snow is essential for avalanche hazard surveys, road and ski resort management, tourism attractiveness, etc. Météo-France operates a probabilistic forecasting system using a numerical weather prediction system and a snowpack model. It provides better forecasts than direct diagnostics but exhibits significant biases. Post-processing methods can be applied to provide automatic forecasting products from this system.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 15, 4335–4356, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, 2021
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Extreme snowfall can cause major natural hazards (avalanches, winter storms) that can generate casualties and economic damage. In the French Alps, we show that between 1959 and 2019 extreme snowfall mainly decreased below 2000 m of elevation and increased above 2000 m. At 2500 m, we find a contrasting pattern: extreme snowfall decreased in the north, while it increased in the south. This pattern might be related to increasing trends in extreme snowfall observed near the Mediterranean Sea.
Pirmin Philipp Ebner, Franziska Koch, Valentina Premier, Carlo Marin, Florian Hanzer, Carlo Maria Carmagnola, Hugues François, Daniel Günther, Fabiano Monti, Olivier Hargoaa, Ulrich Strasser, Samuel Morin, and Michael Lehning
The Cryosphere, 15, 3949–3973, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3949-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3949-2021, 2021
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A service to enable real-time optimization of grooming and snow-making at ski resorts was developed and evaluated using both GNSS-measured snow depth and spaceborne snow maps derived from Copernicus Sentinel-2. The correlation to the ground observation data was high. Potential sources for the overestimation of the snow depth by the simulations are mainly the impact of snow redistribution by skiers, compensation of uneven terrain, or spontaneous local adaptions of the snow management.
Julien Beaumet, Michel Déqué, Gerhard Krinner, Cécile Agosta, Antoinette Alias, and Vincent Favier
The Cryosphere, 15, 3615–3635, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021, 2021
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We use empirical run-time bias correction (also called flux correction) to correct the systematic errors of the ARPEGE atmospheric climate model. When applying the method to future climate projections, we found a lesser poleward shift and an intensification of the maximum of westerly winds present in the southern high latitudes. This yields a significant additional warming of +0.6 to +0.9 K of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with respect to non-corrected control projections using the RCP8.5 scenario.
Bertrand Cluzet, Matthieu Lafaysse, Emmanuel Cosme, Clément Albergel, Louis-François Meunier, and Marie Dumont
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1595–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1595-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1595-2021, 2021
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In the mountains, the combination of large model error and observation sparseness is a challenge for data assimilation. Here, we develop two variants of the particle filter (PF) in order to propagate the information content of observations into unobserved areas. By adjusting observation errors or exploiting background correlation patterns, we demonstrate the potential for partial observations of snow depth and surface reflectance to improve model accuracy with the PF in an idealised setting.
Michael Matiu, Alice Crespi, Giacomo Bertoldi, Carlo Maria Carmagnola, Christoph Marty, Samuel Morin, Wolfgang Schöner, Daniele Cat Berro, Gabriele Chiogna, Ludovica De Gregorio, Sven Kotlarski, Bruno Majone, Gernot Resch, Silvia Terzago, Mauro Valt, Walter Beozzo, Paola Cianfarra, Isabelle Gouttevin, Giorgia Marcolini, Claudia Notarnicola, Marcello Petitta, Simon C. Scherrer, Ulrich Strasser, Michael Winkler, Marc Zebisch, Andrea Cicogna, Roberto Cremonini, Andrea Debernardi, Mattia Faletto, Mauro Gaddo, Lorenzo Giovannini, Luca Mercalli, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Andrea Sušnik, Alberto Trenti, Stefano Urbani, and Viktor Weilguni
The Cryosphere, 15, 1343–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1343-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1343-2021, 2021
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The first Alpine-wide assessment of station snow depth has been enabled by a collaborative effort of the research community which involves more than 30 partners, 6 countries, and more than 2000 stations. It shows how snow in the European Alps matches the climatic zones and gives a robust estimate of observed changes: stronger decreases in the snow season at low elevations and in spring at all elevations, however, with considerable regional differences.
Richard Essery, Hyungjun Kim, Libo Wang, Paul Bartlett, Aaron Boone, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Eleanor Burke, Matthias Cuntz, Bertrand Decharme, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Yeugeniy Gusev, Stefan Hagemann, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Gerhard Krinner, Matthieu Lafaysse, Yves Lejeune, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Christoph Marty, Cecile B. Menard, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, John Pomeroy, Gerd Schädler, Vladimir Semenov, Tatiana Smirnova, Sean Swenson, Dmitry Turkov, Nander Wever, and Hua Yuan
The Cryosphere, 14, 4687–4698, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, 2020
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Climate models are uncertain in predicting how warming changes snow cover. This paper compares 22 snow models with the same meteorological inputs. Predicted trends agree with observations at four snow research sites: winter snow cover does not start later, but snow now melts earlier in spring than in the 1980s at two of the sites. Cold regions where snow can last until late summer are predicted to be particularly sensitive to warming because the snow then melts faster at warmer times of year.
Martin Ménégoz, Evgenia Valla, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Juliette Blanchet, Julien Beaumet, Bruno Wilhelm, Hubert Gallée, Xavier Fettweis, Samuel Morin, and Sandrine Anquetin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5355–5377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, 2020
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The study investigates precipitation changes in the Alps, using observations and a 7 km resolution climate simulation over 1900–2010. An increase in mean precipitation is found in winter over the Alps, whereas a drying occurred in summer in the surrounding plains. A general increase in the daily annual maximum of precipitation is evidenced (20 to 40 % per century), suggesting an increase in extreme events that is significant only when considering long time series, typically 50 to 80 years.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2961–2977, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2961-2020, 2020
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To minimize the risk of structure collapse due to extreme snow loads, structure standards rely on 50-year return levels of ground snow load (GSL), i.e. levels exceeded once every 50 years on average, that do not account for climate change. We study GSL data in the French Alps massifs from 1959 and 2019 and find that these 50-year return levels are decreasing with time between 900 and 4800 m of altitude, but they still exceed return levels of structure standards for half of the massifs at 1800 m.
Patrick Le Moigne, François Besson, Eric Martin, Julien Boé, Aaron Boone, Bertrand Decharme, Pierre Etchevers, Stéphanie Faroux, Florence Habets, Matthieu Lafaysse, Delphine Leroux, and Fabienne Rousset-Regimbeau
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3925–3946, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3925-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3925-2020, 2020
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The study describes how a hydrometeorological model, operational at Météo-France, has been improved. Particular emphasis is placed on the impact of climatic data, surface, and soil parametrizations on the model results. Model simulations and evaluations carried out on a variety of measurements of river flows and snow depths are presented. All improvements in climate, surface data, and model physics have a positive impact on system performance.
Julien Beaumet, Michel Déqué, Gerhard Krinner, Cécile Agosta, and Antoinette Alias
The Cryosphere, 13, 3023–3043, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019, 2019
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The atmospheric model ARPEGE is used with a stretched grid in order to reach an average horizontal resolution of 35 km over Antarctica. Over 1981–2010, we forced the model with observed and modelled sea surface conditions (SSCs). For the late 21st century, we use original and bias-corrected sea surface conditions from RCP8.5 climate projections. We assess the impact of using direct or bias-corrected SSCs for the evolution of Antarctic climate and surface mass balance.
Jari-Pekka Nousu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Matthieu Vernay, Joseph Bellier, Guillaume Evin, and Bruno Joly
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 339–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-339-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-339-2019, 2019
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Forecasting the height of new snow is crucial for avalanche hazard, road viability, ski resorts and tourism. The numerical models suffer from systematic and significant errors which are misleading for the final users. Here, we applied for the first time a state-of-the-art statistical method to correct ensemble numerical forecasts of the height of new snow from their statistical link with measurements in French Alps and Pyrenees. Thus the realism of automatic forecasts can be quickly improved.
Pierre Spandre, Hugues François, Deborah Verfaillie, Marc Pons, Matthieu Vernay, Matthieu Lafaysse, Emmanuelle George, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 13, 1325–1347, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1325-2019, 2019
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This study investigates the snow reliability of 175 ski resorts in the Pyrenees (France, Spain and Andorra) and the French Alps under past and future conditions (1950–2100) using state-of-the-art climate projections and snowpack modelling accounting for snow management, i.e. grooming and snowmaking. The snow reliability of ski resorts shows strong elevation and regional differences, and our study quantifies changes in snow reliability induced by snowmaking under various climate scenarios.
Biagio Di Mauro, Roberto Garzonio, Micol Rossini, Gianluca Filippa, Paolo Pogliotti, Marta Galvagno, Umberto Morra di Cella, Mirco Migliavacca, Giovanni Baccolo, Massimiliano Clemenza, Barbara Delmonte, Valter Maggi, Marie Dumont, François Tuzet, Matthieu Lafaysse, Samuel Morin, Edoardo Cremonese, and Roberto Colombo
The Cryosphere, 13, 1147–1165, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1147-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1147-2019, 2019
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The snow albedo reduction due to dust from arid regions alters the melting dynamics of the snowpack, resulting in earlier snowmelt. We estimate up to 38 days of anticipated snow disappearance for a season that was characterized by a strong dust deposition event. This process has a series of further impacts. For example, earlier snowmelts may alter the hydrological cycle in the Alps, induce higher sensitivity to late summer drought, and finally impact vegetation and animal phenology.
Yves Lejeune, Marie Dumont, Jean-Michel Panel, Matthieu Lafaysse, Philippe Lapalus, Erwan Le Gac, Bernard Lesaffre, and Samuel Morin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 71–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-71-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-71-2019, 2019
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This paper introduces and provides access to a daily (1960–2017) and an hourly (1993–2017) dataset of snow and meteorological data measured at the Col de Porte site, 1325 m a.s.l, Charteuse, France. The daily dataset can be used to quantify the effect of climate change at this site, with a reduction of the mean snow depth of 39 cm from 1960–1990 to 1990–2017. The daily and hourly datasets are useful and appropriate for driving and evaluating a snowpack model over such a long period.
Gerhard Krinner, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Mark Flanner, Stefan Hagemann, Martyn Clark, Alex Hall, Helmut Rott, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Hyungjun Kim, Cécile B. Ménard, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad Thackeray, Libo Wang, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Paul Bartlett, Julia Boike, Aaron Boone, Frédérique Chéruy, Jeanne Colin, Matthias Cuntz, Yongjiu Dai, Bertrand Decharme, Jeff Derry, Agnès Ducharne, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Charles Fierz, Josephine Ghattas, Yeugeniy Gusev, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Rachel Law, Dave Lawrence, Weiping Li, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Martin Ménégoz, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, Masashi Niwano, John Pomeroy, Mark S. Raleigh, Gerd Schaedler, Vladimir Semenov, Tanya G. Smirnova, Tobias Stacke, Ulrich Strasser, Sean Svenson, Dmitry Turkov, Tao Wang, Nander Wever, Hua Yuan, Wenyan Zhou, and Dan Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5027–5049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, 2018
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This paper provides an overview of a coordinated international experiment to determine the strengths and weaknesses in how climate models treat snow. The models will be assessed at point locations using high-quality reference measurements and globally using satellite-derived datasets. How well climate models simulate snow-related processes is important because changing snow cover is an important part of the global climate system and provides an important freshwater resource for human use.
Frank Techel, Christoph Mitterer, Elisabetta Ceaglio, Cécile Coléou, Samuel Morin, Francesca Rastelli, and Ross S. Purves
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2697–2716, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2697-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2697-2018, 2018
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In 1993, the European Avalanche Warning Services agreed upon a common danger scale to describe the regional avalanche hazard: the European Avalanche Danger Scale. Using published avalanche forecasts, we explored whether forecasters use the scale consistently. We noted differences in the use of the danger levels, some of which could be linked to the size of the regions a regional danger level is issued for. We recommend further harmonizing the avalanche forecast products in the Alps.
Alexandra Touzeau, Amaëlle Landais, Samuel Morin, Laurent Arnaud, and Ghislain Picard
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2393–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2393-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2393-2018, 2018
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We introduced a new module of water vapor diffusion into the snowpack model Crocus. Vapor transport locally modifies the density of snow layers, possibly influencing compaction. It also affects the original isotopic signature of snow layers. We also introduced water isotopes (𝛿18O) in the model. Over 10 years, the modeled attenuation of isotopic variations due to vapor diffusion is 7–18 % lower than the observations. Thus, other processes are required to explain the total attenuation.
Marion Réveillet, Delphine Six, Christian Vincent, Antoine Rabatel, Marie Dumont, Matthieu Lafaysse, Samuel Morin, Vincent Vionnet, and Maxime Litt
The Cryosphere, 12, 1367–1386, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1367-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1367-2018, 2018
Deborah Verfaillie, Matthieu Lafaysse, Michel Déqué, Nicolas Eckert, Yves Lejeune, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 12, 1249–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018, 2018
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This article addresses local changes of seasonal snow and its meteorological drivers, at 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range in the Northern French Alps, for the period 1960–2100. We use an ensemble of adjusted RCM outputs consistent with IPCC AR5 GCM outputs (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) and the snowpack model Crocus. Beyond scenario-based approach, global temperature levels on the order of 1.5 °C and 2 °C above preindustrial levels correspond to 25 and 32% reduction of mean snow depth.
Martin Beniston, Daniel Farinotti, Markus Stoffel, Liss M. Andreassen, Erika Coppola, Nicolas Eckert, Adriano Fantini, Florie Giacona, Christian Hauck, Matthias Huss, Hendrik Huwald, Michael Lehning, Juan-Ignacio López-Moreno, Jan Magnusson, Christoph Marty, Enrique Morán-Tejéda, Samuel Morin, Mohamed Naaim, Antonello Provenzale, Antoine Rabatel, Delphine Six, Johann Stötter, Ulrich Strasser, Silvia Terzago, and Christian Vincent
The Cryosphere, 12, 759–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-759-2018, 2018
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This paper makes a rather exhaustive overview of current knowledge of past, current, and future aspects of cryospheric issues in continental Europe and makes a number of reflections of areas of uncertainty requiring more attention in both scientific and policy terms. The review paper is completed by a bibliography containing 350 recent references that will certainly be of value to scholars engaged in the fields of glacier, snow, and permafrost research.
Deborah Verfaillie, Michel Déqué, Samuel Morin, and Matthieu Lafaysse
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4257–4283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4257-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4257-2017, 2017
Aurore Voldoire, Bertrand Decharme, Joris Pianezze, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Florence Sevault, Léo Seyfried, Valérie Garnier, Soline Bielli, Sophie Valcke, Antoinette Alias, Mickael Accensi, Fabrice Ardhuin, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Véronique Ducrocq, Stéphanie Faroux, Hervé Giordani, Fabien Léger, Patrick Marsaleix, Romain Rainaud, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Evelyne Richard, and Sébastien Riette
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4207–4227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, 2017
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This study presents the principles of the new coupling interface based on the SURFEX multi-surface model and the OASIS3-MCT coupler. As SURFEX can be plugged into several atmospheric models, it can be used in a wide range of applications. The objective of this development is to build and share a common structure for the atmosphere–surface coupling of all these applications, involving on the one hand atmospheric models and on the other hand ocean, ice, hydrology, and wave models.
Francois Tuzet, Marie Dumont, Matthieu Lafaysse, Ghislain Picard, Laurent Arnaud, Didier Voisin, Yves Lejeune, Luc Charrois, Pierre Nabat, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 11, 2633–2653, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2633-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2633-2017, 2017
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Light-absorbing impurities deposited on snow, such as soot or dust, strongly modify its evolution. We implemented impurity deposition and evolution in a detailed snowpack model, thereby expanding the reach of such models into addressing the subtle interplays between snow physics and impurities' optical properties. Model results were evaluated based on innovative field observations at an Alpine site. This allows future investigations in the fields of climate, hydrology and avalanche prediction.
Jesús Revuelto, Grégoire Lecourt, Matthieu Lafaysse, Isabella Zin, Luc Charrois, Vincent Vionnet, Marie Dumont, Antoine Rabatel, Delphine Six, Thomas Condom, Samuel Morin, Alessandra Viani, and Pascal Sirguey
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-184, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-184, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We evaluated distributed and semi-distributed modeling approaches to simulating the spatial and temporal evolution of snow and ice over an extended mountain catchment, using the Crocus snowpack model. The distributed approach simulated the snowpack dynamics on a 250-m grid, enabling inclusion of terrain shadowing effects. The semi-distributed approach simulated the snowpack dynamics for discrete topographic classes characterized by elevation range, aspect, and slope.
Christopher J. L. D'Amboise, Karsten Müller, Laurent Oxarango, Samuel Morin, and Thomas V. Schuler
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3547–3566, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3547-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3547-2017, 2017
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We present a new water percolation routine added to the Crocus model. The new routine is physically based, describing motion of water through a layered snowpack considering capillary-driven and gravity flow. We tested the routine on two data sets. Wet-snow layers were able to reach higher saturations than the empirical routine. Meaningful applicability is limited until new and better parameterizations of water retention are developed, and feedbacks are adjusted to handle higher saturations.
Mathieu Barrere, Florent Domine, Bertrand Decharme, Samuel Morin, Vincent Vionnet, and Matthieu Lafaysse
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3461–3479, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3461-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3461-2017, 2017
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Global warming projections still suffer from a limited representation of the permafrost–carbon feedback. This study assesses the capacity of snow-soil coupled models to simulate the permafrost thermal regime at Bylot Island, a high Arctic site. Significant flaws are found in the description of Arctic snow properties, resulting in erroneous heat transfers between the soil and the snow in simulations. Improved snow schemes are needed to accurately predict the future of permafrost.
Matthieu Lafaysse, Bertrand Cluzet, Marie Dumont, Yves Lejeune, Vincent Vionnet, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 11, 1173–1198, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1173-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1173-2017, 2017
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Physically based multilayer snowpack models suffer from various modelling errors. To represent these errors, we built the new multiphysical ensemble system ESCROC by implementing new representations of different physical processes in a coupled multilayer ground/snowpack model. This system is a promising tool to integrate snow modelling errors in ensemble forecasting and ensemble assimilation systems in support of avalanche hazard forecasting and other snowpack modelling applications.
Marie Dumont, Laurent Arnaud, Ghislain Picard, Quentin Libois, Yves Lejeune, Pierre Nabat, Didier Voisin, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 11, 1091–1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1091-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1091-2017, 2017
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Snow spectral albedo in the visible/near-infrared range has been continuously measured during a winter season at Col de Porte alpine site (French Alps; 45.30° N, 5.77°E; 1325 m a.s.l.). This study highlights that the variations of spectral albedo can be successfully explained by variations of the following snow surface variables: snow-specific surface area, effective light-absorbing impurities content, presence of liquid water and slope.
David Fairbairn, Alina Lavinia Barbu, Adrien Napoly, Clément Albergel, Jean-François Mahfouf, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2015–2033, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2015-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2015-2017, 2017
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This study assesses the impact on river discharge simulations over France of assimilating ASCAT-derived surface soil moisture (SSM) and leaf area index (LAI) observations into the ISBA land surface model. Wintertime LAI has a notable impact on river discharge. SSM assimilation degrades river discharge simulations. This is caused by limitations in the simplified versions of the Kalman filter and ISBA model used in this study. Implementing an observation operator for ASCAT is needed.
Pierre Spandre, Hugues François, Emmanuel Thibert, Samuel Morin, and Emmanuelle George-Marcelpoil
The Cryosphere, 11, 891–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-891-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-891-2017, 2017
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The production of machine-made snow is generalized in ski resorts and represents the most common adaptation method to mitigate effects of climate variability and its projected changes. However, the actual snow mass that can be recovered from a given water mass used for snowmaking remains poorly known. All results were consistent with 60 % (±10 %) of the water mass found as snow within the edge of the ski slope, with most of the lost fraction of water being due to site-dependent characteristics.
Aaron Boone, Patrick Samuelsson, Stefan Gollvik, Adrien Napoly, Lionel Jarlan, Eric Brun, and Bertrand Decharme
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 843–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-843-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-843-2017, 2017
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Land surface models describe the different exchanges of mass, heat, and momentum with the atmosphere. They are pushing towards improved realism owing to an increasing number of in situ observations, improving satellite data-sets and increasing computing resources. As a part of the trend, a new parameterization has been developed called the Interactions between the Surface Biosphere Atmosphere-Multi-Energy Budget model. This technical paper describes model equations and theoretical background.
Florent Domine, Mathieu Barrere, and Samuel Morin
Biogeosciences, 13, 6471–6486, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6471-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6471-2016, 2016
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Warming-induced shrub growth in the Arctic traps snow and modifies snow properties, hence the permafrost thermal regime. In the Canadian high Arctic, we measured snow physical properties in the presence and absence of willow shrubs (Salix richardsonii). Shrubs dramatically reduce snow density and thermal conductivity, seriously limiting soil winter cooling. Simulations taking into account only winter changes show that shrub growth leads to a ground winter warming of up to 13 °C.
Deborah Verfaillie, Michel Déqué, Samuel Morin, and Matthieu Lafaysse
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-168, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-168, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Louis Quéno, Vincent Vionnet, Ingrid Dombrowski-Etchevers, Matthieu Lafaysse, Marie Dumont, and Fatima Karbou
The Cryosphere, 10, 1571–1589, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1571-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1571-2016, 2016
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Simulations are carried out in the Pyrenees with the snowpack model Crocus, driven by meteorological forecasts from the model AROME at kilometer resolution. The evaluation is done with ground-based measurements, satellite data and reference simulations. Studying daily snow depth variations allows to separate different physical processes affecting the snowpack. We show the benefits of AROME kilometric resolution and dynamical behavior in terms of snowpack spatial variability in a mountain range.
Ghislain Picard, Laurent Arnaud, Jean-Michel Panel, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 10, 1495–1511, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1495-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1495-2016, 2016
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A cost-effective automatic laser scan has been built to measure snow depth spatio-temporal variations. Deployed in the Alps and in Dome C (Antarctica), two devices acquired daily scans covering a surface area of 100–150 m2. The precision and long-term stability of the measurements are about 1 cm and the accuracy is better than 5 cm. These high performances are particularly suited at Dome C, where it was possible to reveal that most of the accumulation in the year 2015 stems from a single event.
Luc Charrois, Emmanuel Cosme, Marie Dumont, Matthieu Lafaysse, Samuel Morin, Quentin Libois, and Ghislain Picard
The Cryosphere, 10, 1021–1038, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1021-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1021-2016, 2016
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This study investigates the assimilation of optical reflectances, snowdepth data and both combined into a multilayer snowpack model. Data assimilation is performed with an ensemble-based method, the Sequential Importance Resampling Particle filter. Experiments assimilating only synthetic data are conducted at one point in the French Alps, the Col du Lautaret, over five hydrological years. Results of the assimilation experiments show improvements of the snowpack bulk variables estimates.
Bertrand Decharme, Eric Brun, Aaron Boone, Christine Delire, Patrick Le Moigne, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 10, 853–877, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-853-2016, 2016
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We analyze how snowpack processes and soil properties impact the soil temperature profiles over northern Eurasian regions using a land surface model. A correct representation of snow compaction is critical in winter while snow albedo is dominant in spring. In summer, soil temperature is more affected by soil organic carbon content, which strongly influences the maximum thaw depth in permafrost regions. This work was done to improve the representation of boreal region processes in climate models.
Q. Libois, G. Picard, L. Arnaud, M. Dumont, M. Lafaysse, S. Morin, and E. Lefebvre
The Cryosphere, 9, 2383–2398, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2383-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2383-2015, 2015
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The albedo and surface energy budget of the Antarctic Plateau are largely determined by snow specific surface area. The latter experiences substantial daily-to-seasonal variations in response to meteorological conditions. In particular, it decreases by a factor three in summer, causing a drop in albedo. These variations are monitored from in situ and remote sensing observations at Dome C. For the first time, they are also simulated with a snowpack evolution model adapted to Antarctic conditions.
J. Erbland, J. Savarino, S. Morin, J. L. France, M. M. Frey, and M. D. King
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12079–12113, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12079-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12079-2015, 2015
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In this paper, we describe the development of a numerical model which aims at representing nitrate recycling at the air-snow interface on the East Antarctic Plateau. Stable isotopes are used as diagnostic and evaluation tools by comparing the model's results to recent field measurements of nitrate and key atmospheric species at Dome C, Antarctica. From sensitivity tests conducted with the model, we propose a framework for the interpretation of the nitrate isotope record in deep ice cores.
F. Domine, M. Barrere, D. Sarrazin, S. Morin, and L. Arnaud
The Cryosphere, 9, 1265–1276, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1265-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1265-2015, 2015
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The thermal conductivity of Arctic snow strongly impacts ground temperature, nutrient recycling and vegetation growth. We have monitored the thermal conductivity of snow in low-Arctic shrub tundra for two consecutive winters using heated needle probes. We observe very different thermal conductivity evolutions in both winters studied, with more extensive melting in the second winter. Results illustrate the effect of vegetation on snow properties and the need to include it in snow physics models.
X. V. Phan, L. Ferro-Famil, M. Gay, Y. Durand, M. Dumont, S. Morin, S. Allain, G. D'Urso, and A. Girard
The Cryosphere, 8, 1975–1987, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1975-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1975-2014, 2014
H. Castebrunet, N. Eckert, G. Giraud, Y. Durand, and S. Morin
The Cryosphere, 8, 1673–1697, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1673-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1673-2014, 2014
M. Dietzel, A. Leis, R. Abdalla, J. Savarino, S. Morin, M. E. Böttcher, and S. Köhler
Biogeosciences, 11, 3149–3161, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3149-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3149-2014, 2014
M.-P. Moine, S. Valcke, B. N. Lawrence, C. Pascoe, R. W. Ford, A. Alias, V. Balaji, P. Bentley, G. Devine, S. A. Callaghan, and E. Guilyardi
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 479–493, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-479-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-479-2014, 2014
C. M. Carmagnola, S. Morin, M. Lafaysse, F. Domine, B. Lesaffre, Y. Lejeune, G. Picard, and L. Arnaud
The Cryosphere, 8, 417–437, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-417-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-417-2014, 2014
F. Domine, S. Morin, E. Brun, M. Lafaysse, and C. M. Carmagnola
The Cryosphere, 7, 1915–1929, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1915-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1915-2013, 2013
P. Huszar, H. Teyssèdre, M. Michou, A. Voldoire, D. J. L. Olivié, D. Saint-Martin, D. Cariolle, S. Senesi, D. Salas Y Melia, A. Alias, F. Karcher, P. Ricaud, and T. Halenka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10027–10048, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10027-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10027-2013, 2013
V. Masson, P. Le Moigne, E. Martin, S. Faroux, A. Alias, R. Alkama, S. Belamari, A. Barbu, A. Boone, F. Bouyssel, P. Brousseau, E. Brun, J.-C. Calvet, D. Carrer, B. Decharme, C. Delire, S. Donier, K. Essaouini, A.-L. Gibelin, H. Giordani, F. Habets, M. Jidane, G. Kerdraon, E. Kourzeneva, M. Lafaysse, S. Lafont, C. Lebeaupin Brossier, A. Lemonsu, J.-F. Mahfouf, P. Marguinaud, M. Mokhtari, S. Morin, G. Pigeon, R. Salgado, Y. Seity, F. Taillefer, G. Tanguy, P. Tulet, B. Vincendon, V. Vionnet, and A. Voldoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 929–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-929-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-929-2013, 2013
J. Erbland, W. C. Vicars, J. Savarino, S. Morin, M. M. Frey, D. Frosini, E. Vince, and J. M. F. Martins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6403–6419, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6403-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6403-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Cryosphere
Computationally efficient subglacial drainage modelling using Gaussian process emulators: GlaDS-GP v1.0
Anisotropic metric-based mesh adaptation for ice flow modelling in Firedrake
Description and validation of the ice-sheet model Nix v1.0
The Utrecht Finite Volume Ice-Sheet Model (UFEMISM) version 2.0 – Part 1: Description and idealised experiments
A Flexible Snow Model (FSM 2.1.1) including a forest canopy
CMIP6 models overestimate sea ice melt, growth and conduction relative to ice mass balance buoy estimates
Coupling framework (1.0) for the Úa (2023b) ice sheet model and the FESOM-1.4 z-coordinate ocean model in an Antarctic domain
A gradient-boosted tree framework to model the ice thickness of the world's glaciers (IceBoost v1.1)
A Python library for solving ice sheet modeling problems using Physics Informed Neural Networks, PINNICLE v1.0
Towards deep-learning solutions for classification of automated snow height measurements (CleanSnow v1.0.2)
Constraining CMIP6 sea ice simulations with ICESat-2
Quantitative sub-ice and marine tracing of Antarctic sediment provenance (TASP v1.0)
Tuning parameters of a sea ice model using machine learning
WRF-Chem simulations of snow nitrate and other physicochemical properties in northern China
A framework for three-dimensional dynamic modeling of mountain glaciers in the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM v2.2)
Clustering simulated snow profiles to form avalanche forecast regions
SnowQM 1.0: a fast R package for bias-correcting spatial fields of snow water equivalent using quantile mapping
Simulation of snow albedo and solar irradiance profile with the Two-streAm Radiative TransfEr in Snow (TARTES) v2.0 model
Evaluation of MITgcm-based ocean reanalyses for the Southern Ocean
A three-stage model pipeline predicting regional avalanche danger in Switzerland (RAvaFcast v1.0.0): a decision-support tool for operational avalanche forecasting
A global–land snow scheme (GLASS) v1.0 for the GFDL Earth System Model: formulation and evaluation at instrumented sites
Design and performance of ELSA v2.0: an isochronal model for ice-sheet layer tracing
Southern Ocean Ice Prediction System version 1.0 (SOIPS v1.0): description of the system and evaluation of synoptic-scale sea ice forecasts
Lagrangian tracking of sea ice in Community Ice CodE (CICE; version 5)
openAMUNDSEN v1.0: an open-source snow-hydrological model for mountain regions
OpenFOAM-avalanche 2312: depth-integrated models beyond dense-flow avalanches
Refactoring the elastic–viscous–plastic solver from the sea ice model CICE v6.5.1 for improved performance
A new 3D full-Stokes calving algorithm within Elmer/Ice (v9.0)
A novel numerical implementation for the surface energy budget of melting snowpacks and glaciers
SnowPappus v1.0, a blowing-snow model for large-scale applications of the Crocus snow scheme
A stochastic parameterization of ice sheet surface mass balance for the Stochastic Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level System Model (StISSM v1.0)
Graphics-processing-unit-accelerated ice flow solver for unstructured meshes using the Shallow-Shelf Approximation (FastIceFlo v1.0.1)
A finite-element framework to explore the numerical solution of the coupled problem of heat conduction, water vapor diffusion, and settlement in dry snow (IvoriFEM v0.1.0)
AvaFrame com1DFA (v1.3): a thickness-integrated computational avalanche module – theory, numerics, and testing
Universal differential equations for glacier ice flow modelling
A new model for supraglacial hydrology evolution and drainage for the Greenland Ice Sheet (SHED v1.0)
Modeling sensitivities of thermally and hydraulically driven ice stream surge cycling
A parallel implementation of the confined–unconfined aquifer system model for subglacial hydrology: design, verification, and performance analysis (CUAS-MPI v0.1.0)
Automatic snow type classification of snow micropenetrometer profiles with machine learning algorithms
An empirical model to calculate snow depth from daily snow water equivalent: SWE2HS 1.0
A wind-driven snow redistribution module for Alpine3D v3.3.0: adaptations designed for downscaling ice sheet surface mass balance
The CryoGrid community model (version 1.0) – a multi-physics toolbox for climate-driven simulations in the terrestrial cryosphere
Glacier Energy and Mass Balance (GEMB): a model of firn processes for cryosphere research
Sensitivity of NEMO4.0-SI3 model parameters on sea ice budgets in the Southern Ocean
Introducing CRYOWRF v1.0: multiscale atmospheric flow simulations with advanced snow cover modelling
SUHMO: an adaptive mesh refinement SUbglacial Hydrology MOdel v1.0
Improving snow albedo modeling in the E3SM land model (version 2.0) and assessing its impacts on snow and surface fluxes over the Tibetan Plateau
The Multiple Snow Data Assimilation System (MuSA v1.0)
The Stochastic Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level System Model v1.0 (StISSM v1.0)
Improved representation of the contemporary Greenland ice sheet firn layer by IMAU-FDM v1.2G
Tim Hill, Derek Bingham, Gwenn E. Flowers, and Matthew J. Hoffman
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4045–4074, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4045-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4045-2025, 2025
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Subglacial drainage models represent water flow beneath glaciers and ice sheets. Here, we train fast statistical models called Gaussian process (GP) emulators to accelerate subglacial drainage modelling by ~ 1000 times. We use the fast emulator predictions to show that three of the model parameters are responsible for > 90 % of the variance in model outputs. The fast GP emulators will enable future uncertainty quantification and calibration of these models.
Davor Dundovic, Joseph G. Wallwork, Stephan C. Kramer, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Regine Hock, and Matthew D. Piggott
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4023–4044, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4023-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4023-2025, 2025
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Accurate numerical studies of glaciers often require high-resolution simulations, which often prove too demanding even for modern computers. In this paper we develop a method that identifies whether different parts of a glacier require high or low resolution based on its physical features, such as its thickness and velocity. We show that by doing so we can achieve a more optimal simulation accuracy for the available computing resources compared to uniform-resolution simulations.
Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3895–3919, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3895-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3895-2025, 2025
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We introduce Nix, an ice-sheet model designed for understanding how large masses of ice behave. Nix is a computer programme that simulates the movement and temperature evolution in ice sheets. It helps us study how ice sheets respond to changes in the atmosphere and ocean. We found that ice temperatures play an essential role in determining the motion and stability of ice sheets. Nix is a useful tool for learning how climate change affects polar ice sheets.
Constantijn J. Berends, Victor Azizi, Jorge A. Bernales, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3635–3659, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3635-2025, 2025
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Ice-sheet models are computer programs that can simulate how the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will evolve in the future. The accuracy of these models depends on their resolution: how small the details are that the model can resolve. We have created a model with a variable resolution that can resolve a lot of detail in areas where lots of changes happen in the ice and less detail in areas where the ice does not move so much. This makes the model both accurate and fast.
Richard Essery, Giulia Mazzotti, Sarah Barr, Tobias Jonas, Tristan Quaife, and Nick Rutter
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3583–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3583-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3583-2025, 2025
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How forests influence accumulation and melt of snow on the ground is of long-standing interest, but uncertainty remains in how best to model forest snow processes. We developed the Flexible Snow Model version 2 to quantify these uncertainties. In a first model demonstration, how unloading of intercepted snow from the forest canopy is represented is responsible for the largest uncertainty. Global mapping of forest distribution is also likely to be a large source of uncertainty in existing models.
Alex E. West and Edward W. Blockley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3041–3064, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3041-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3041-2025, 2025
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This study uses ice mass balance buoys – temperature- and height-measuring devices frozen into sea ice – to find how well climate models simulate (1) melt and growth of Arctic sea ice and (2) conduction of heat through Arctic sea ice. This may help understand why models produce varying amounts of sea ice in the present day. We find that models tend to show more melt, growth or conduction for a given ice thickness than the buoys, although the difference is smaller for models with more physically realistic thermodynamics.
Ole Richter, Ralph Timmermann, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Jan De Rydt
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2945–2960, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2945-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2945-2025, 2025
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The new coupled ice sheet–ocean model addresses challenges related to horizontal resolution through advanced mesh flexibility, enabled by the use of unstructured grids. We describe the new model, verify its functioning in an idealised setting and demonstrate its advantages in a global-ocean–Antarctic ice sheet domain. The results of this study comprise an important step towards improving predictions of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise over centennial timescales.
Niccolò Maffezzoli, Eric Rignot, Carlo Barbante, Troels Petersen, and Sebastiano Vascon
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2545–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2545-2025, 2025
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In this work we introduce IceBoost, a machine learning framework to model the ice thickness distribution of all the world's glaciers with greater accuracy than state-of-the-art methods. The model is trained on 3.7 million measurements globally available and provides skilful estimates across all regions. This advancement will help in better assessing future sea level changes and freshwater resources, with significance for both the scientific community and society at large.
Gong Cheng, Mansa Krishna, and Mathieu Morlighem
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1188, 2025
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Predicting ice sheet contributions to sea level rise is challenging due to limited data and uncertainties in key processes. Traditional models require complex methods that lack flexibility. We developed PINNICLE, an open-source Python library that integrates machine learning with physical laws to improve ice sheet modeling. By combining data and physics, PINNICLE enhances predictions and adaptability, providing a powerful tool for climate research and sea level rise projections.
Jan Svoboda, Marc Ruesch, David Liechti, Corinne Jones, Michele Volpi, Michael Zehnder, and Jürg Schweizer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1829–1849, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1829-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1829-2025, 2025
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Accurately measuring snow height is key for modeling approaches in climate science, snow hydrology, and avalanche forecasting. Erroneous snow height measurements often occur when snow height is low or changes, for instance during snowfall in summer. We prepare a new benchmark dataset with annotated snow height data and demonstrate how to improve the measurement quality using modern deep-learning approaches. Our approach can be easily implemented in a data pipeline for snow modeling.
Alek Aaron Petty, Christopher Cardinale, and Madison Smith
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-766, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-766, 2025
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We put global climate models to the test against NASA’s ICESat-2 satellite to see how well they simulate global sea ice cover. By adding fancy laser data from ICESat-2, we can better assess how well the models are performing compared to the standard assessments of sea ice area. Overall the models do a good job but there’s room for improvement, especially across the Southern Ocean. We should think a bit more about sea ice density if we want more reliable freeboard comparisons.
James W. Marschalek, Edward Gasson, Tina van de Flierdt, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Martin J. Siegert, and Liam Holder
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1673–1708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1673-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1673-2025, 2025
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Ice sheet models can help predict how Antarctica's ice sheets respond to environmental change, and such models benefit from comparison to geological data. Here, we use an ice sheet model output and other data to predict the erosion of debris and trace its transport to where it is deposited on the ocean floor. This allows the results of ice sheet modelling to be directly and quantitively compared to real-world data, helping to reduce uncertainty regarding Antarctic sea level contribution.
Anton Korosov, Yue Ying, and Einar Ólason
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 885–904, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-885-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-885-2025, 2025
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We have developed a new method to improve the accuracy of sea ice models, which predict how ice moves and deforms due to wind and ocean currents. Traditional models use parameters that are often poorly defined. The new approach uses machine learning to fine-tune these parameters by comparing simulated ice drift with satellite data. The method identifies optimal settings for the model by analysing patterns in ice deformation. This results in more accurate simulations of sea ice drift forecasting.
Xia Wang, Tao Che, Xueyin Ruan, Shanna Yue, Jing Wang, Chun Zhao, and Lei Geng
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 651–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-651-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-651-2025, 2025
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We employed the WRF-Chem model to parameterize atmospheric nitrate deposition in snow and evaluate its performance in simulating snow cover, snow depth, and concentrations of dust and nitrate using new observations from northern China. The results generally exhibit reasonable agreement with field observations in northern China, demonstrating the model's capability to simulate snow properties, including concentrations of reservoir species.
Samar Minallah, William Lipscomb, Gunter Leguy, and Harry Zekollari
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4152, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4152, 2025
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We implemented a new modeling framework within an Earth system model to study the evolution of mountain glaciers under different climate scenarios and applied it to the European Alps. Alpine glaciers will lose a large volume fraction under current temperatures, with near complete ice loss under warmer scenarios. This is the first use of a 3D, higher-order ice flow model for regional-scale glacier simulations that will enable assessments of coupled land ice and Earth system processes.
Simon Horton, Florian Herla, and Pascal Haegeli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 193–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-193-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-193-2025, 2025
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We present a method for avalanche forecasters to analyze patterns in snowpack model simulations. It uses fuzzy clustering to group small regions into larger forecast areas based on snow characteristics, locations, and temporal history. Tested in the Columbia Mountains in two winter seasons, it closely matched real forecast regions regions and identified major avalanche hazard patterns. This approach simplifies complex model outputs, helping forecasters make informed decisions.
Adrien Michel, Johannes Aschauer, Tobias Jonas, Stefanie Gubler, Sven Kotlarski, and Christoph Marty
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8969–8988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8969-2024, 2024
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We present a method to correct snow cover maps (represented in terms of snow water equivalent) to match better-quality maps. The correction can then be extended backwards and forwards in time for periods when better-quality maps are not available. The method is fast and gives good results. It is then applied to obtain a climatology of the snow cover in Switzerland over the past 60 years at a resolution of 1 d and 1 km. This is the first time that such a dataset has been produced.
Ghislain Picard and Quentin Libois
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8927–8953, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8927-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8927-2024, 2024
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The Two-streAm Radiative TransfEr in Snow (TARTES) is a radiative transfer model to compute snow albedo in the solar domain and the profiles of light and energy absorption in a multi-layered snowpack whose physical properties are user defined. It uniquely considers snow grain shape flexibly, based on recent insights showing that snow does not behave as a collection of ice spheres but instead as a random medium. TARTES is user-friendly yet performs comparably to more complex models.
Yoshihiro Nakayama, Alena Malyarenko, Hong Zhang, Ou Wang, Matthis Auger, Yafei Nie, Ian Fenty, Matthew Mazloff, Armin Köhl, and Dimitris Menemenlis
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8613–8638, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8613-2024, 2024
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Global- and basin-scale ocean reanalyses are becoming easily accessible. However, such ocean reanalyses are optimized for their entire model domains and their ability to simulate the Southern Ocean requires evaluation. We conduct intercomparison analyses of Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm)-based ocean reanalyses. They generally perform well for the open ocean, but open-ocean temporal variability and Antarctic continental shelves require improvements.
Alessandro Maissen, Frank Techel, and Michele Volpi
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7569–7593, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7569-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7569-2024, 2024
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By harnessing AI models, this work enables processing large amounts of data, including weather conditions, snowpack characteristics, and historical avalanche data, to predict human-like avalanche forecasts in Switzerland. Our proposed model can significantly assist avalanche forecasters in their decision-making process, thereby facilitating more efficient and accurate predictions crucial for ensuring safety in Switzerland's avalanche-prone regions.
Enrico Zorzetto, Sergey Malyshev, Paul Ginoux, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7219–7244, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7219-2024, 2024
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We describe a new snow scheme developed for use in global climate models, which simulates the interactions of snowpack with vegetation, atmosphere, and soil. We test the new snow model over a set of sites where in situ observations are available. We find that when compared to a simpler snow model, this model improves predictions of seasonal snow and of soil temperature under the snowpack, important variables for simulating both the hydrological cycle and the global climate system.
Therese Rieckh, Andreas Born, Alexander Robinson, Robert Law, and Gerrit Gülle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6987–7000, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6987-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6987-2024, 2024
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We present the open-source model ELSA, which simulates the internal age structure of large ice sheets. It creates layers of snow accumulation at fixed times during the simulation, which are used to model the internal stratification of the ice sheet. Together with reconstructed isochrones from radiostratigraphy data, ELSA can be used to assess ice sheet models and to improve their parameterization. ELSA can be used coupled to an ice sheet model or forced with its output.
Fu Zhao, Xi Liang, Zhongxiang Tian, Ming Li, Na Liu, and Chengyan Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6867–6886, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6867-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6867-2024, 2024
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In this work, we introduce a newly developed Antarctic sea ice forecasting system, namely the Southern Ocean Ice Prediction System (SOIPS). The system is based on a regional sea ice‒ocean‒ice shelf coupled model and can assimilate sea ice concentration observations. By assessing the system's performance in sea ice forecasts, we find that the system can provide reliable Antarctic sea ice forecasts for the next 7 d and has the potential to guide ship navigation in the Antarctic sea ice zone.
Chenhui Ning, Shiming Xu, Yan Zhang, Xuantong Wang, Zhihao Fan, and Jiping Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6847–6866, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6847-2024, 2024
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Sea ice models are mainly based on non-moving structured grids, which is different from buoy measurements that follow the ice drift. To facilitate Lagrangian analysis, we introduce online tracking of sea ice in Community Ice CodE (CICE). We validate the sea ice tracking with buoys and evaluate the sea ice deformation in high-resolution simulations, which show multi-fractal characteristics. The source code is openly available and can be used in various scientific and operational applications.
Ulrich Strasser, Michael Warscher, Erwin Rottler, and Florian Hanzer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6775–6797, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6775-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6775-2024, 2024
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openAMUNDSEN is a fully distributed open-source snow-hydrological model for mountain catchments. It includes process representations of an empirical, semi-empirical, and physical nature. It uses temperature, precipitation, humidity, radiation, and wind speed as forcing data and is computationally efficient, of a modular nature, and easily extendible. The Python code is available on GitHub (https://github.com/openamundsen/openamundsen), including documentation (https://doc.openamundsen.org).
Matthias Rauter and Julia Kowalski
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6545–6569, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6545-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6545-2024, 2024
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Snow avalanches can form large powder clouds that substantially exceed the velocity and reach of the dense core. Only a few complex models exist to simulate this phenomenon, and the respective hazard is hard to predict. This work provides a novel flow model that focuses on simple relations while still encapsulating the significant behaviour. The model is applied to reconstruct two catastrophic powder snow avalanche events in Austria.
Till Andreas Soya Rasmussen, Jacob Poulsen, Mads Hvid Ribergaard, Ruchira Sasanka, Anthony P. Craig, Elizabeth C. Hunke, and Stefan Rethmeier
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6529–6544, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6529-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6529-2024, 2024
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Earth system models (ESMs) today strive for better quality based on improved resolutions and improved physics. A limiting factor is the supercomputers at hand and how best to utilize them. This study focuses on the refactorization of one part of a sea ice model (CICE), namely the dynamics. It shows that the performance can be significantly improved, which means that one can either run the same simulations much cheaper or advance the system according to what is needed.
Iain Wheel, Douglas I. Benn, Anna J. Crawford, Joe Todd, and Thomas Zwinger
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5759–5777, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5759-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5759-2024, 2024
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Calving, the detachment of large icebergs from glaciers, is one of the largest uncertainties in future sea level rise projections. This process is poorly understood, and there is an absence of detailed models capable of simulating calving. A new 3D calving model has been developed to better understand calving at glaciers where detailed modelling was previously limited. Importantly, the new model is very flexible. By allowing for unrestricted calving geometries, it can be applied at any location.
Kévin Fourteau, Julien Brondex, Fanny Brun, and Marie Dumont
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1903–1929, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1903-2024, 2024
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In this paper, we provide a novel numerical implementation for solving the energy exchanges at the surface of snow and ice. By combining the strong points of previous models, our solution leads to more accurate and robust simulations of the energy exchanges, surface temperature, and melt while preserving a reasonable computation time.
Matthieu Baron, Ange Haddjeri, Matthieu Lafaysse, Louis Le Toumelin, Vincent Vionnet, and Mathieu Fructus
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1297–1326, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1297-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1297-2024, 2024
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Increasing the spatial resolution of numerical systems simulating snowpack evolution in mountain areas requires representing small-scale processes such as wind-induced snow transport. We present SnowPappus, a simple scheme coupled with the Crocus snow model to compute blowing-snow fluxes and redistribute snow among grid points at 250 m resolution. In terms of numerical cost, it is suitable for large-scale applications. We present point-scale evaluations of fluxes and snow transport occurrence.
Lizz Ultee, Alexander A. Robel, and Stefano Castruccio
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1041–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1041-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1041-2024, 2024
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The surface mass balance (SMB) of an ice sheet describes the net gain or loss of mass from ice sheets (such as those in Greenland and Antarctica) through interaction with the atmosphere. We developed a statistical method to generate a wide range of SMB fields that reflect the best understanding of SMB processes. Efficiently sampling the variability of SMB will help us understand sources of uncertainty in ice sheet model projections.
Anjali Sandip, Ludovic Räss, and Mathieu Morlighem
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 899–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-899-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-899-2024, 2024
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We solve momentum balance for unstructured meshes to predict ice flow for real glaciers using a pseudo-transient method on graphics processing units (GPUs) and compare it to a standard central processing unit (CPU) implementation. We justify the GPU implementation by applying the price-to-performance metric for up to million-grid-point spatial resolutions. This study represents a first step toward leveraging GPU processing power, enabling more accurate polar ice discharge predictions.
Julien Brondex, Kévin Fourteau, Marie Dumont, Pascal Hagenmuller, Neige Calonne, François Tuzet, and Henning Löwe
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7075–7106, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7075-2023, 2023
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Vapor diffusion is one of the main processes governing snowpack evolution, and it must be accounted for in models. Recent attempts to represent vapor diffusion in numerical models have faced several difficulties regarding computational cost and mass and energy conservation. Here, we develop our own finite-element software to explore numerical approaches and enable us to overcome these difficulties. We illustrate the capability of these approaches on established numerical benchmarks.
Matthias Tonnel, Anna Wirbel, Felix Oesterle, and Jan-Thomas Fischer
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7013–7035, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7013-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7013-2023, 2023
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Avaframe - the open avalanche framework - provides open-source tools to simulate and investigate snow avalanches. It is utilized for multiple purposes, the two main applications being hazard mapping and scientific research of snow processes. We present the theory, conversion to a computer model, and testing for one of the core modules used for simulations of a particular type of avalanche, the so-called dense-flow avalanches. Tests check and confirm the applicability of the utilized method.
Jordi Bolibar, Facundo Sapienza, Fabien Maussion, Redouane Lguensat, Bert Wouters, and Fernando Pérez
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6671–6687, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6671-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6671-2023, 2023
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We developed a new modelling framework combining numerical methods with machine learning. Using this approach, we focused on understanding how ice moves within glaciers, and we successfully learnt a prescribed law describing ice movement for 17 glaciers worldwide as a proof of concept. Our framework has the potential to discover important laws governing glacier processes, aiding our understanding of glacier physics and their contribution to water resources and sea-level rise.
Prateek Gantayat, Alison F. Banwell, Amber A. Leeson, James M. Lea, Dorthe Petersen, Noel Gourmelen, and Xavier Fettweis
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5803–5823, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5803-2023, 2023
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We developed a new supraglacial hydrology model for the Greenland Ice Sheet. This model simulates surface meltwater routing, meltwater drainage, supraglacial lake (SGL) overflow, and formation of lake ice. The model was able to reproduce 80 % of observed lake locations and provides a good match between the observed and modelled temporal evolution of SGLs.
Kevin Hank, Lev Tarasov, and Elisa Mantelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5627–5652, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5627-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5627-2023, 2023
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Physically meaningful modeling of geophysical system instabilities is numerically challenging, given the potential effects of purely numerical artifacts. Here we explore the sensitivity of ice stream surge activation to numerical and physical model aspects. We find that surge characteristics exhibit a resolution dependency but converge at higher horizontal grid resolutions and are significantly affected by the incorporation of bed thermal and sub-glacial hydrology models.
Yannic Fischler, Thomas Kleiner, Christian Bischof, Jeremie Schmiedel, Roiy Sayag, Raban Emunds, Lennart Frederik Oestreich, and Angelika Humbert
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5305–5322, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5305-2023, 2023
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Water underneath ice sheets affects the motion of glaciers. This study presents a newly developed code, CUAS-MPI, that simulates subglacial hydrology. It is designed for supercomputers and is hence a parallelized code. We measure the performance of this code for simulations of the entire Greenland Ice Sheet and find that the code works efficiently. Moreover, we validated the code to ensure the correctness of the solution. CUAS-MPI opens new possibilities for simulations of ice sheet hydrology.
Julia Kaltenborn, Amy R. Macfarlane, Viviane Clay, and Martin Schneebeli
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4521–4550, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4521-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4521-2023, 2023
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Snow layer segmentation and snow grain classification are essential diagnostic tasks for cryospheric applications. A SnowMicroPen (SMP) can be used to that end; however, the manual classification of its profiles becomes infeasible for large datasets. Here, we evaluate how well machine learning models automate this task. Of the 14 models trained on the MOSAiC SMP dataset, the long short-term memory model performed the best. The findings presented here facilitate and accelerate SMP data analysis.
Johannes Aschauer, Adrien Michel, Tobias Jonas, and Christoph Marty
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4063–4081, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4063-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4063-2023, 2023
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Snow water equivalent is the mass of water stored in a snowpack. Based on exponential settling functions, the empirical snow density model SWE2HS is presented to convert time series of daily snow water equivalent into snow depth. The model has been calibrated with data from Switzerland and validated with independent data from the European Alps. A reference implementation of SWE2HS is available as a Python package.
Eric Keenan, Nander Wever, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3203–3219, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3203-2023, 2023
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Ice sheets gain mass via snowfall. However, snowfall is redistributed by the wind, resulting in accumulation differences of up to a factor of 5 over distances as short as 5 km. These differences complicate estimates of ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. For this reason, we have developed a new model for estimating wind-driven snow redistribution on ice sheets. We show that, over Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica, the model improves estimates of snow accumulation variability.
Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Johanna Scheer, Kristoffer Aalstad, Juditha Aga, Nitin Chaudhary, Bernd Etzelmüller, Simon Filhol, Andreas Kääb, Cas Renette, Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Robin B. Zweigel, Léo Martin, Sarah Morard, Matan Ben-Asher, Michael Angelopoulos, Julia Boike, Brian Groenke, Frederieke Miesner, Jan Nitzbon, Paul Overduin, Simone M. Stuenzi, and Moritz Langer
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2607–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023, 2023
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The CryoGrid community model is a new tool for simulating ground temperatures and the water and ice balance in cold regions. It is a modular design, which makes it possible to test different schemes to simulate, for example, permafrost ground in an efficient way. The model contains tools to simulate frozen and unfrozen ground, snow, glaciers, and other massive ice bodies, as well as water bodies.
Alex S. Gardner, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, and Eric Larour
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2277–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2277-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2277-2023, 2023
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This is the first description of the open-source Glacier Energy and Mass Balance (GEMB) model. GEMB models the ice sheet and glacier surface–atmospheric energy and mass exchange, as well as the firn state. The model is evaluated against the current state of the art and in situ observations and is shown to perform well.
Yafei Nie, Chengkun Li, Martin Vancoppenolle, Bin Cheng, Fabio Boeira Dias, Xianqing Lv, and Petteri Uotila
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1395–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1395-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1395-2023, 2023
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State-of-the-art Earth system models simulate the observed sea ice extent relatively well, but this is often due to errors in the dynamic and other processes in the simulated sea ice changes cancelling each other out. We assessed the sensitivity of these processes simulated by the coupled ocean–sea ice model NEMO4.0-SI3 to 18 parameters. The performance of the model in simulating sea ice change processes was ultimately improved by adjusting the three identified key parameters.
Varun Sharma, Franziska Gerber, and Michael Lehning
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 719–749, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-719-2023, 2023
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Most current generation climate and weather models have a relatively simplistic description of snow and snow–atmosphere interaction. One reason for this is the belief that including an advanced snow model would make the simulations too computationally demanding. In this study, we bring together two state-of-the-art models for atmosphere (WRF) and snow cover (SNOWPACK) and highlight both the feasibility and necessity of such coupled models to explore underexplored phenomena in the cryosphere.
Anne M. Felden, Daniel F. Martin, and Esmond G. Ng
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 407–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-407-2023, 2023
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We present and validate a novel subglacial hydrology model, SUHMO, based on an adaptive mesh refinement framework. We propose the addition of a pseudo-diffusion to recover the wall melting in channels. Computational performance analysis demonstrates the efficiency of adaptive mesh refinement on large-scale hydrologic problems. The adaptive mesh refinement approach will eventually enable better ice bed boundary conditions for ice sheet simulations at a reasonable computational cost.
Dalei Hao, Gautam Bisht, Karl Rittger, Edward Bair, Cenlin He, Huilin Huang, Cheng Dang, Timbo Stillinger, Yu Gu, Hailong Wang, Yun Qian, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 75–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-75-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-75-2023, 2023
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Snow with the highest albedo of land surface plays a vital role in Earth’s surface energy budget and water cycle. This study accounts for the impacts of snow grain shape and mixing state of light-absorbing particles with snow on snow albedo in the E3SM land model. The findings advance our understanding of the role of snow grain shape and mixing state of LAP–snow in land surface processes and offer guidance for improving snow simulations and radiative forcing estimates in Earth system models.
Esteban Alonso-González, Kristoffer Aalstad, Mohamed Wassim Baba, Jesús Revuelto, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, Joel Fiddes, Richard Essery, and Simon Gascoin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9127–9155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9127-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9127-2022, 2022
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Snow cover plays an important role in many processes, but its monitoring is a challenging task. The alternative is usually to simulate the snowpack, and to improve these simulations one of the most promising options is to fuse simulations with available observations (data assimilation). In this paper we present MuSA, a data assimilation tool which facilitates the implementation of snow monitoring initiatives, allowing the assimilation of a wide variety of remotely sensed snow cover information.
Vincent Verjans, Alexander A. Robel, Helene Seroussi, Lizz Ultee, and Andrew F. Thompson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8269–8293, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, 2022
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We describe the development of the first large-scale ice sheet model that accounts for stochasticity in a range of processes. Stochasticity allows the impacts of inherently uncertain processes on ice sheets to be represented. This includes climatic uncertainty, as the climate is inherently chaotic. Furthermore, stochastic capabilities also encompass poorly constrained glaciological processes that display strong variability at fine spatiotemporal scales. We present the model and test experiments.
Max Brils, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel van den Broeke
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7121–7138, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7121-2022, 2022
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Firn covers the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and can temporarily prevent mass loss. Here, we present the latest version of our firn model, IMAU-FDM, with an application to the GrIS. We improved the density of fallen snow, the firn densification rate and the firn's thermal conductivity. This leads to a higher air content and 10 m temperatures. Furthermore we investigate three case studies and find that the updated model shows greater variability and an increased sensitivity in surface elevation.
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Short summary
Modeling snow cover in climate and weather forecasting models is a challenge even for high-resolution models. Recent simulations with CNRM-AROME have shown difficulties when representing snow in the European Alps. Using remote sensing data and in situ observations, we evaluate modifications of the land surface configuration in order to improve it. We propose a new surface configuration, enabling a more realistic simulation of snow cover, relevant for climate and weather forecasting applications.
Modeling snow cover in climate and weather forecasting models is a challenge even for...
