Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 16
Articles | Volume 17, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6489-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6489-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 16
Model experiment description paper
 | 
30 Aug 2024
Model experiment description paper |  | 30 Aug 2024

Analysis of model error in forecast errors of extended atmospheric Lorenz 05 systems and the ECMWF system

Hynek Bednář and Holger Kantz

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Latest update: 20 Oct 2025
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Short summary
The forecast error growth of atmospheric phenomena is caused by initial and model errors. When studying the initial error growth, it may turn out that small-scale phenomena, which contribute little to the forecast product, significantly affect the ability to predict this product. With a negative result, we investigate in the extended Lorenz (2005) system whether omitting these phenomena will improve predictability. A theory explaining and describing this behavior is developed.
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