Articles | Volume 17, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6489-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6489-2024
Model experiment description paper
 | 
30 Aug 2024
Model experiment description paper |  | 30 Aug 2024

Analysis of model error in forecast errors of extended atmospheric Lorenz 05 systems and the ECMWF system

Hynek Bednář and Holger Kantz

Data sets

Analysis of model error in forecast errors of Extended Atmospheric Lorenz' 05 Systems and the ECMWF system Hynek Bednář https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/2EWXB

Download
Short summary
The forecast error growth of atmospheric phenomena is caused by initial and model errors. When studying the initial error growth, it may turn out that small-scale phenomena, which contribute little to the forecast product, significantly affect the ability to predict this product. With a negative result, we investigate in the extended Lorenz (2005) system whether omitting these phenomena will improve predictability. A theory explaining and describing this behavior is developed.