Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1091-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1091-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Methods for assessment of models
| 
09 Feb 2024
Methods for assessment of models |
| 09 Feb 2024
| 09 Feb 2024
Evaluation of surface shortwave downward radiation forecasts by the numerical weather prediction model AROME
Marie-Adèle Magnaldo
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Sébastien Riette
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Christine Lac
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
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Adrien Marcel, Sébastien Riette, Didier Ricard, and Christine Lac
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2504, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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This paper provides substantial consistent updates to the atmospheric boundary layer schemes of the AROME model, yet they can be used for both forecasting and climate modelling. The study employs a single-column model versus large eddy simulations comparison and uses a machine learning tool to calibrate parameterizations. The model's ability to simulate shallow clouds has been enhanced, especially for shallow precipitating cumulus and stratocumulus clouds.
Ghislain Picard and Quentin Libois
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8927–8953, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8927-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8927-2024, 2024
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The Two-streAm Radiative TransfEr in Snow (TARTES) is a radiative transfer model to compute snow albedo in the solar domain and the profiles of light and energy absorption in a multi-layered snowpack whose physical properties are user defined. It uniquely considers snow grain shape flexibly, based on recent insights showing that snow does not behave as a collection of ice spheres but instead as a random medium. TARTES is user-friendly yet performs comparably to more complex models.
Zili He, Quentin Libois, Najda Villefranque, Hartwig Deneke, Jonas Witthuhn, and Fleur Couvreux
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11391–11408, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11391-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11391-2024, 2024
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This study uses observations and simulations to analyze how cumulus clouds affect spacial solar radiation variability on the ground. Results show that the simulations reproduce the observations well and improve understanding of cloud impacts on radiation. The research also indicates that a few strategically placed sensors, capitalizing on measurement timing, can effectively measure these variations, aiding in the development of detailed weather prediction models.
Romilly Harris Stuart, Amaëlle Landais, Laurent Arnaud, Christo Buizert, Emilie Capron, Marie Dumont, Quentin Libois, Robert Mulvaney, Anaïs Orsi, Ghislain Picard, Frédéric Prié, Jeffrey Severinghaus, Barbara Stenni, and Patricia Martinerie
The Cryosphere, 18, 3741–3763, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3741-2024, 2024
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Ice core δO2/N2 records are useful dating tools due to their local insolation pacing. A precise understanding of the physical mechanism driving this relationship, however, remain ambiguous. By compiling data from 15 polar sites, we find a strong dependence of mean δO2/N2 on accumulation rate and temperature in addition to the well-documented insolation dependence. Snowpack modelling is used to investigate which physical properties drive the mechanistic dependence on these local parameters.
Théophane Costabloz, Frédéric Burnet, Christine Lac, Pauline Martinet, Julien Delanoë, Susana Jorquera, and Maroua Fathalli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1344, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1344, 2024
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This study documents vertical profiles of liquid water content (LWC) in fogs from in situ measurements collected during the SOFOG3D field campaign in 2019–2020. The analysis of 140 vertical profiles reveals a reverse trend in LWC, maximum values at ground decreasing with height, during stable conditions in optically thin fogs, evolving towards quasi-adiabatic characteristics when fogs become thick. These results offer new perspectives for better constraining fog numerical simulations.
Cheikh Dione, Martial Haeffelin, Frédéric Burnet, Christine Lac, Guylaine Canut, Julien Delanoë, Jean-Charles Dupont, Susana Jorquera, Pauline Martinet, Jean-François Ribaud, and Felipe Toledo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15711–15731, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15711-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15711-2023, 2023
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This paper documents the role of thermodynamics and turbulence in the fog life cycle over southwestern France. It is based on a unique dataset collected during the SOFOG3D field campaign in autumn and winter 2019–2020. The paper gives a threshold for turbulence driving the different phases of the fog life cycle and the role of advection in the night-time dissipation of fog. The results can be operationalised to nowcast fog and improve short-range forecasts in numerical weather prediction models.
Marie Dumont, Simon Gascoin, Marion Réveillet, Didier Voisin, François Tuzet, Laurent Arnaud, Mylène Bonnefoy, Montse Bacardit Peñarroya, Carlo Carmagnola, Alexandre Deguine, Aurélie Diacre, Lukas Dürr, Olivier Evrard, Firmin Fontaine, Amaury Frankl, Mathieu Fructus, Laure Gandois, Isabelle Gouttevin, Abdelfateh Gherab, Pascal Hagenmuller, Sophia Hansson, Hervé Herbin, Béatrice Josse, Bruno Jourdain, Irene Lefevre, Gaël Le Roux, Quentin Libois, Lucie Liger, Samuel Morin, Denis Petitprez, Alvaro Robledano, Martin Schneebeli, Pascal Salze, Delphine Six, Emmanuel Thibert, Jürg Trachsel, Matthieu Vernay, Léo Viallon-Galinier, and Céline Voiron
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3075–3094, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3075-2023, 2023
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Saharan dust outbreaks have profound effects on ecosystems, climate, health, and the cryosphere, but the spatial deposition pattern of Saharan dust is poorly known. Following the extreme dust deposition event of February 2021 across Europe, a citizen science campaign was launched to sample dust on snow over the Pyrenees and the European Alps. This campaign triggered wide interest and over 100 samples. The samples revealed the high variability of the dust properties within a single event.
Ian Boutle, Wayne Angevine, Jian-Wen Bao, Thierry Bergot, Ritthik Bhattacharya, Andreas Bott, Leo Ducongé, Richard Forbes, Tobias Goecke, Evelyn Grell, Adrian Hill, Adele L. Igel, Innocent Kudzotsa, Christine Lac, Bjorn Maronga, Sami Romakkaniemi, Juerg Schmidli, Johannes Schwenkel, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, and Benoît Vié
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 319–333, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-319-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-319-2022, 2022
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Fog forecasting is one of the biggest problems for numerical weather prediction. By comparing many models used for fog forecasting with others used for fog research, we hoped to help guide forecast improvements. We show some key processes that, if improved, will help improve fog forecasting, such as how water is deposited on the ground. We also showed that research models were not themselves a suitable baseline for comparison, and we discuss what future observations are required to improve them.
Olivier Nuissier, Fanny Duffourg, Maxime Martinet, Véronique Ducrocq, and Christine Lac
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14649–14667, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14649-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14649-2020, 2020
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This present article demonstrates how numerical simulations with very high horizontal resolution (150 m) can contribute to better understanding the key physical processes (turbulence and microphysics) that lead to Mediterranean heavy precipitation.
Sébastien Riette
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 443–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-443-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-443-2020, 2020
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Numerical weather or climate models use several interacting parametrizations to represent different physical processes. PPPY 1.1 is a Python package for running and comparing individual parametrizations in offline mode, independently of other parametrizations and of the host model. In this paper, the tool is described and used to assess and reduce the time-step dependency present in a microphysical parametrization.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Quentin Libois, Ghislain Picard, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5157–5175, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5157-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5157-2019, 2019
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Climate models are often limited to relatively simple snow albedo schemes. Therefore, we have developed the SNOWBAL module to couple a climate model with a physically based wavelength dependent snow albedo model. Using SNOWBAL v1.2 to couple the snow albedo model TARTES with the regional climate model RACMO2 indicates a potential performance gain for the Greenland ice sheet.
Franck Auguste, Géraldine Réa, Roberto Paoli, Christine Lac, Valery Masson, and Daniel Cariolle
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2607–2633, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2607-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2607-2019, 2019
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The numerical implementation of an immersed boundary method in the atmospheric solver Meso-NH is presented. This technique models fluid–solid interaction and allows for the simulation of urban flows by considering buildings to be part of the resolved scales. This study constitutes a first robust step towards a better understanding of the interactions between weather and cities and better predictions of such interactions.
Jonathan P. D. Abbatt, W. Richard Leaitch, Amir A. Aliabadi, Allan K. Bertram, Jean-Pierre Blanchet, Aude Boivin-Rioux, Heiko Bozem, Julia Burkart, Rachel Y. W. Chang, Joannie Charette, Jai P. Chaubey, Robert J. Christensen, Ana Cirisan, Douglas B. Collins, Betty Croft, Joelle Dionne, Greg J. Evans, Christopher G. Fletcher, Martí Galí, Roya Ghahreman, Eric Girard, Wanmin Gong, Michel Gosselin, Margaux Gourdal, Sarah J. Hanna, Hakase Hayashida, Andreas B. Herber, Sareh Hesaraki, Peter Hoor, Lin Huang, Rachel Hussherr, Victoria E. Irish, Setigui A. Keita, John K. Kodros, Franziska Köllner, Felicia Kolonjari, Daniel Kunkel, Luis A. Ladino, Kathy Law, Maurice Levasseur, Quentin Libois, John Liggio, Martine Lizotte, Katrina M. Macdonald, Rashed Mahmood, Randall V. Martin, Ryan H. Mason, Lisa A. Miller, Alexander Moravek, Eric Mortenson, Emma L. Mungall, Jennifer G. Murphy, Maryam Namazi, Ann-Lise Norman, Norman T. O'Neill, Jeffrey R. Pierce, Lynn M. Russell, Johannes Schneider, Hannes Schulz, Sangeeta Sharma, Meng Si, Ralf M. Staebler, Nadja S. Steiner, Jennie L. Thomas, Knut von Salzen, Jeremy J. B. Wentzell, Megan D. Willis, Gregory R. Wentworth, Jun-Wei Xu, and Jacqueline D. Yakobi-Hancock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2527–2560, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2527-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2527-2019, 2019
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The Arctic is experiencing considerable environmental change with climate warming, illustrated by the dramatic decrease in sea-ice extent. It is important to understand both the natural and perturbed Arctic systems to gain a better understanding of how they will change in the future. This paper summarizes new insights into the relationships between Arctic aerosol particles and climate, as learned over the past five or so years by a large Canadian research consortium, NETCARE.
Christine Lac, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Valéry Masson, Jean-Pierre Pinty, Pierre Tulet, Juan Escobar, Maud Leriche, Christelle Barthe, Benjamin Aouizerats, Clotilde Augros, Pierre Aumond, Franck Auguste, Peter Bechtold, Sarah Berthet, Soline Bielli, Frédéric Bosseur, Olivier Caumont, Jean-Martial Cohard, Jeanne Colin, Fleur Couvreux, Joan Cuxart, Gaëlle Delautier, Thibaut Dauhut, Véronique Ducrocq, Jean-Baptiste Filippi, Didier Gazen, Olivier Geoffroy, François Gheusi, Rachel Honnert, Jean-Philippe Lafore, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Quentin Libois, Thibaut Lunet, Céline Mari, Tomislav Maric, Patrick Mascart, Maxime Mogé, Gilles Molinié, Olivier Nuissier, Florian Pantillon, Philippe Peyrillé, Julien Pergaud, Emilie Perraud, Joris Pianezze, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Didier Ricard, Evelyne Richard, Sébastien Riette, Quentin Rodier, Robert Schoetter, Léo Seyfried, Joël Stein, Karsten Suhre, Marie Taufour, Odile Thouron, Sandra Turner, Antoine Verrelle, Benoît Vié, Florian Visentin, Vincent Vionnet, and Philippe Wautelet
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1929–1969, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1929-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1929-2018, 2018
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This paper presents the Meso-NH model version 5.4, which is an atmospheric non-hydrostatic research model that is applied on synoptic to turbulent scales. The model includes advanced numerical techniques and state-of-the-art physics parameterization schemes. It has been expanded to provide capabilities for a range of Earth system prediction applications such as chemistry and aerosols, electricity and lightning, hydrology, wildland fires, volcanic eruptions, and cyclones with ocean coupling.
Irène Xueref-Remy, Elsa Dieudonné, Cyrille Vuillemin, Morgan Lopez, Christine Lac, Martina Schmidt, Marc Delmotte, Frédéric Chevallier, François Ravetta, Olivier Perrussel, Philippe Ciais, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, Michel Ramonet, T. Gerard Spain, and Christophe Ampe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3335–3362, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3335-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3335-2018, 2018
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Urbanized and industrialized areas are the largest source of fossil CO2. This work analyses the atmospheric CO2 variability observed from the first in situ network deployed in the Paris megacity area. Gradients of several ppm are found between the rural, peri-urban and urban sites at the diurnal to the seasonal scales. Wind direction and speed as well as boundary layer dynamics, correlated to highly variable urban emissions, are shown to be key regulator factors of the observed CO2 records.
Aurore Voldoire, Bertrand Decharme, Joris Pianezze, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Florence Sevault, Léo Seyfried, Valérie Garnier, Soline Bielli, Sophie Valcke, Antoinette Alias, Mickael Accensi, Fabrice Ardhuin, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Véronique Ducrocq, Stéphanie Faroux, Hervé Giordani, Fabien Léger, Patrick Marsaleix, Romain Rainaud, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Evelyne Richard, and Sébastien Riette
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4207–4227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, 2017
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This study presents the principles of the new coupling interface based on the SURFEX multi-surface model and the OASIS3-MCT coupler. As SURFEX can be plugged into several atmospheric models, it can be used in a wide range of applications. The objective of this development is to build and share a common structure for the atmosphere–surface coupling of all these applications, involving on the one hand atmospheric models and on the other hand ocean, ice, hydrology, and wave models.
Jeanne Colin, Christine Lac, Valéry Massion, and Alexandre Paci
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-226, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-226, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
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The meteorological model Meso-NH is adapted in order to be run in DNS mode (Direct Numerical Simulation) to represent atmospheric flows generated in laboratory. The implementations we performed are validated against exact solutions and experimental data. Thus, Meso-NH can now be used as a complement to laboratory experiments, to complete and/or extend the data. The ability to run it in DNS also brings new prospects as it offers a new framework to test parametrizations of fine-scale processes.
Marie Mazoyer, Christine Lac, Odile Thouron, Thierry Bergot, Valery Masson, and Luc Musson-Genon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13017–13035, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13017-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13017-2017, 2017
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Large eddy simulations of a radiation fog event occurring during the ParisFog experiment have been studied to analyze the impact of the dynamics on the fog life cycle. They included a sophisticated microphysical scheme, the drag effect of a trees barrier and deposition on vegetation. The blocking effect of the trees induces elevated fog formation and limits cooling and cloud water production. The deposition process was found to exert the most significant impact on the fog prediction.
Marie Dumont, Laurent Arnaud, Ghislain Picard, Quentin Libois, Yves Lejeune, Pierre Nabat, Didier Voisin, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 11, 1091–1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1091-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1091-2017, 2017
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Snow spectral albedo in the visible/near-infrared range has been continuously measured during a winter season at Col de Porte alpine site (French Alps; 45.30° N, 5.77°E; 1325 m a.s.l.). This study highlights that the variations of spectral albedo can be successfully explained by variations of the following snow surface variables: snow-specific surface area, effective light-absorbing impurities content, presence of liquid water and slope.
Quentin Libois, Liviu Ivanescu, Jean-Pierre Blanchet, Hannes Schulz, Heiko Bozem, W. Richard Leaitch, Julia Burkart, Jonathan P. D. Abbatt, Andreas B. Herber, Amir A. Aliabadi, and Éric Girard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15689–15707, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15689-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15689-2016, 2016
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The first airborne measurements performed with the FIRR are presented. Vertical profiles of upwelling spectral radiance in the far-infrared are measured in the Arctic atmosphere for the first time. They show the impact of the temperature inversion on the radiative budget of the atmosphere, especially in the far-infrared. The presence of ice clouds also significantly alters the far-infrared budget, highlighting the critical interplay between water vapour and clouds in this very dry region.
Johannes Staufer, Grégoire Broquet, François-Marie Bréon, Vincent Puygrenier, Frédéric Chevallier, Irène Xueref-Rémy, Elsa Dieudonné, Morgan Lopez, Martina Schmidt, Michel Ramonet, Olivier Perrussel, Christine Lac, Lin Wu, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14703–14726, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14703-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14703-2016, 2016
Ghislain Picard, Quentin Libois, Laurent Arnaud, Gauthier Verin, and Marie Dumont
The Cryosphere, 10, 1297–1316, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1297-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1297-2016, 2016
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Albedo of snow surfaces depends on snow grain size. By measuring albedo during 3 years at Dome C in Antarctica with an automatic spectroradiometer, we were able to monitor the snow specific surface area and show an overall growth of the grains in spring and summer followed by an accumulation of small-grained snow from mid-summer. This study focuses on the uncertainties due to the spectroradiometer and concludes that the observed variations are significant with respect to the precision.
Quentin Libois, Christian Proulx, Liviu Ivanescu, Laurence Coursol, Ludovick S. Pelletier, Yacine Bouzid, Francesco Barbero, Éric Girard, and Jean-Pierre Blanchet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 1817–1832, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-1817-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-1817-2016, 2016
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Here we present a radiometer, FIRR, aimed at measuring atmospheric radiation in the far infrared, an underexplored region of the Earth spectrum. The FIRR is a prototype for the planned TICFIRE satellite mission dedicated to studying thin ice clouds in polar regions. Preliminary in situ measurements compare well with radiative transfer simulations. This highlights the high sensitivity of the FIRR to water vapor content and cloud physical properties, paving the way for new retrieval algorithms.
Q. Libois, G. Picard, L. Arnaud, M. Dumont, M. Lafaysse, S. Morin, and E. Lefebvre
The Cryosphere, 9, 2383–2398, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2383-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2383-2015, 2015
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The albedo and surface energy budget of the Antarctic Plateau are largely determined by snow specific surface area. The latter experiences substantial daily-to-seasonal variations in response to meteorological conditions. In particular, it decreases by a factor three in summer, causing a drop in albedo. These variations are monitored from in situ and remote sensing observations at Dome C. For the first time, they are also simulated with a snowpack evolution model adapted to Antarctic conditions.
V. Vionnet, E. Martin, V. Masson, G. Guyomarc'h, F. Naaim-Bouvet, A. Prokop, Y. Durand, and C. Lac
The Cryosphere, 8, 395–415, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-395-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-395-2014, 2014
Q. Libois, G. Picard, J. L. France, L. Arnaud, M. Dumont, C. M. Carmagnola, and M. D. King
The Cryosphere, 7, 1803–1818, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1803-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1803-2013, 2013
C. M. Carmagnola, F. Domine, M. Dumont, P. Wright, B. Strellis, M. Bergin, J. Dibb, G. Picard, Q. Libois, L. Arnaud, and S. Morin
The Cryosphere, 7, 1139–1160, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1139-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1139-2013, 2013
C. Lac, R. P. Donnelly, V. Masson, S. Pal, S. Riette, S. Donier, S. Queguiner, G. Tanguy, L. Ammoura, and I. Xueref-Remy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4941–4961, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4941-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4941-2013, 2013
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Carbon dioxide plume dispersion simulated at hectometer scale using DALES: model formulation and observational evaluation
Lucas A. Estrada, Daniel J. Varon, Melissa Sulprizio, Hannah Nesser, Zichong Chen, Nicholas Balasus, Sarah E. Hancock, Megan He, James D. East, Todd A. Mooring, Alexander Oort Alonso, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Ilse Aben, Sabour Baray, Kevin W. Bowman, John R. Worden, Felipe J. Cardoso-Saldaña, Emily Reidy, and Daniel J. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3311–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3311-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3311-2025, 2025
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Reducing emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, is a top policy concern for mitigating anthropogenic climate change. The Integrated Methane Inversion (IMI) is an advanced, cloud-based software that translates satellite observations into actionable emissions data. Here we present IMI version 2.0 with vastly expanded capabilities. These updates enable a wider range of scientific and stakeholder applications from individual basin to global scales with continuous emissions monitoring.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Tim Butler, Jose A. Adame, Rupal Ambulkar, Steve R. Arnold, Rebecca R. Buchholz, Benjamin Gaubert, Douglas S. Hamilton, Min Huang, Hayley Hung, Johannes W. Kaiser, Jacek W. Kaminski, Christoph Knote, Gerbrand Koren, Jean-Luc Kouassi, Meiyun Lin, Tianjia Liu, Jianmin Ma, Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon, Elisa Bergas Masso, Jessica L. McCarty, Mariano Mertens, Mark Parrington, Helene Peiro, Pallavi Saxena, Saurabh Sonwani, Vanisa Surapipith, Damaris Y. T. Tan, Wenfu Tang, Veerachai Tanpipat, Kostas Tsigaridis, Christine Wiedinmyer, Oliver Wild, Yuanyu Xie, and Paquita Zuidema
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3265–3309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3265-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3265-2025, 2025
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The multi-model experiment design of the HTAP3 Fires project takes a multi-pollutant approach to improving our understanding of transboundary transport of wildland fire and agricultural burning emissions and their impacts. The experiments are designed with the goal of answering science policy questions related to fires. The options for the multi-model approach, including inputs, outputs, and model setup, are discussed, and the official recommendations for the project are presented.
Maurin Zouzoua, Sophie Bastin, Fabienne Lohou, Marie Lothon, Marjolaine Chiriaco, Mathilde Jome, Cécile Mallet, Laurent Barthes, and Guylaine Canut
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3211–3239, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3211-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3211-2025, 2025
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This study proposes using a statistical model to freeze errors due to differences in environmental forcing when evaluating the surface turbulent heat fluxes from numerical simulations with observations. The statistical model is first built with observations and then applied to the simulated environment to generate possibly observed fluxes. This novel method provides insight into differently evaluating the numerical formulation of turbulent heat fluxes with a long period of observational data.
Oxana Drofa
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3175–3209, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3175-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3175-2025, 2025
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This paper presents the result of many years of effort of the author, who developed an original mathematical numerical model of heat and moisture exchange processes in soil, vegetation, and snow. The author relied on her 30 years of research experience in atmospheric numerical modelling. The presented model is the fruit of the author's research on physical processes at the surface–atmosphere interface and their numerical approximation and aims at improving numerical weather forecasting and climate simulations.
Tyler P. Janoski, Ivan Mitevski, Ryan J. Kramer, Michael Previdi, and Lorenzo M. Polvani
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3065–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3065-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3065-2025, 2025
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We developed ClimKern, a Python package and radiative kernel repository, to simplify calculating radiative feedbacks and make climate sensitivity studies more reproducible. Testing of ClimKern with sample climate model data reveals that radiative kernel choice may be more important than previously thought, especially in polar regions. Our work highlights the need for kernel sensitivity analyses to be included in future studies.
Matti Niskanen, Aku Seppänen, Henri Oikarinen, Miska Olin, Panu Karjalainen, Santtu Mikkonen, and Kari Lehtinen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2983–3001, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2983-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2983-2025, 2025
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Particle size is a key factor determining the properties of aerosol particles which have a major influence on the climate and on human health. When measuring the particle sizes, however, sometimes the sampling lines that transfer the aerosol to the measurement device distort the size distribution, making the measurement unreliable. We propose a method to correct for the distortions and estimate the true particle sizes, improving measurement accuracy.
Johann Rasmus Nüß, Nikos Daskalakis, Fabian Günther Piwowarczyk, Angelos Gkouvousis, Oliver Schneising, Michael Buchwitz, Maria Kanakidou, Maarten C. Krol, and Mihalis Vrekoussis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2861–2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2861-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2861-2025, 2025
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We estimate carbon monoxide emissions through inverse modeling, an approach where measurements of tracers in the atmosphere are fed to a model to calculate backwards in time (inverse) where the tracers came from. We introduce measurements from a new satellite instrument and show that, in most places globally, these on their own sufficiently constrain the emissions. This alleviates the need for additional datasets, which could shorten the delay for future carbon monoxide source estimates.
Ashu Dastoor, Hélène Angot, Johannes Bieser, Flora Brocza, Brock Edwards, Aryeh Feinberg, Xinbin Feng, Benjamin Geyman, Charikleia Gournia, Yipeng He, Ian M. Hedgecock, Ilia Ilyin, Jane Kirk, Che-Jen Lin, Igor Lehnherr, Robert Mason, David McLagan, Marilena Muntean, Peter Rafaj, Eric M. Roy, Andrei Ryjkov, Noelle E. Selin, Francesco De Simone, Anne L. Soerensen, Frits Steenhuisen, Oleg Travnikov, Shuxiao Wang, Xun Wang, Simon Wilson, Rosa Wu, Qingru Wu, Yanxu Zhang, Jun Zhou, Wei Zhu, and Scott Zolkos
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2747–2860, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2747-2025, 2025
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This paper introduces the Multi-Compartment Mercury (Hg) Modeling and Analysis Project (MCHgMAP) aimed at informing the effectiveness evaluations of two multilateral environmental agreements: the Minamata Convention on Mercury and the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. The experimental design exploits a variety of models (atmospheric, land, oceanic ,and multimedia mass balance models) to assess the short- and long-term influences of anthropogenic Hg releases into the environment.
Hilda Sandström and Patrick Rinke
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2701–2724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2701-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2701-2025, 2025
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Machine learning has the potential to aid the identification of organic molecules involved in aerosol formation. Yet, progress is stalled by a lack of curated atmospheric molecular datasets. Here, we compared atmospheric compounds with large molecular datasets used in machine learning and found minimal overlap with similarity algorithms. Our result underlines the need for collaborative efforts to curate atmospheric molecular data to facilitate machine learning models in atmospheric sciences.
Juan Escobar, Philippe Wautelet, Joris Pianezze, Florian Pantillon, Thibaut Dauhut, Christelle Barthe, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2679–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2679-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2679-2025, 2025
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The Meso-NH weather research code is adapted for GPUs using OpenACC, leading to significant performance and energy efficiency improvements. Called MESONH-v55-OpenACC, it includes enhanced memory management, communication optimizations and a new solver. On the AMD MI250X Adastra platform, it achieved up to 6× speedup and 2.3× energy efficiency gain compared to CPUs. Storm simulations at 100 m resolution show positive results, positioning the code for future use on exascale supercomputers.
Jie Gao, Yi Huang, Jonathon S. Wright, Ke Li, Tao Geng, and Qiurun Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2569–2586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2569-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2569-2025, 2025
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The aerosol in the upper troposphere and stratosphere is highly variable, and its radiative effect is poorly understood. To estimate this effect, the radiative kernel is constructed and applied. The results show that the kernels can reproduce aerosol radiative effects and are expected to simulate stratospheric aerosol radiative effects. This approach reduces computational expense, is consistent with radiative model calculations, and can be applied to atmospheric models with speed requirements.
Ji Won Yoon, Seungyeon Lee, Ebony Lee, and Seon Ki Park
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2303–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to predict a mega Asian dust storm (ADS) over South Korea on 28–29 March 2021. We assessed combinations of five dust emission and four land surface schemes by analyzing meteorological and air quality variables. The best scheme combination reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) for particulate matter 10 (PM10) by up to 29.6 %, demonstrating the highest performance.
Jianyu Lin, Tie Dai, Lifang Sheng, Weihang Zhang, Shangfei Hai, and Yawen Kong
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2231–2248, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, 2025
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The effectiveness of this assimilation system and its sensitivity to the ensemble member size and length of the assimilation window are investigated. This study advances our understanding of the selection of basic parameters in the four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter assimilation system and the performance of ensemble simulation in a particulate-matter-polluted environment.
Jens Peter Karolus Wenceslaus Frankemölle, Johan Camps, Pieter De Meutter, and Johan Meyers
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1989–2003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, 2025
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To detect anomalous radioactivity in the environment, it is paramount that we understand the natural background level. In this work, we propose a statistical model to describe the most likely background level and the associated uncertainty in a network of dose rate detectors. We train, verify, and validate the model using real environmental data. Using the model, we show that we can correctly predict the background level in a subset of the detector network during a known
anomalous event.
Jean-François Grailet, Robin J. Hogan, Nicolas Ghilain, David Bolsée, Xavier Fettweis, and Marilaure Grégoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1965–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, 2025
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The MAR (Modèle Régional Atmosphérique) is a regional climate model used for weather forecasting and studying the climate over various regions. This paper presents an update of MAR thanks to which it can precisely decompose solar radiation, in particular in the UV (ultraviolet) and photosynthesis ranges, both being critical to human health and ecosystems. As a first application of this new capability, this paper presents a method for predicting UV indices with MAR.
Yi-Ning Shi, Jun Yang, Wei Han, Lujie Han, Jiajia Mao, Wanlin Kan, and Fuzhong Weng
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1947–1964, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, 2025
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Direct assimilation of observations from ground-based microwave radiometers (GMRs) holds significant potential for improving forecast accuracy. Radiative transfer models (RTMs) play a crucial role in direct data assimilation. In this study, we introduce a new RTM, the Advanced Radiative Transfer Modeling System – Ground-Based (ARMS-gb), designed to simulate brightness temperatures observed by GMRs along with their Jacobians. Several enhancements have been incorporated to achieve higher accuracy.
R. Phani Murali Krishna, Siddharth Kumar, A. Gopinathan Prajeesh, Peter Bechtold, Nils Wedi, Kumar Roy, Malay Ganai, B. Revanth Reddy, Snehlata Tirkey, Tanmoy Goswami, Radhika Kanase, Sahadat Sarkar, Medha Deshpande, and Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1879–1894, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, 2025
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The High-Resolution Global Forecast Model (HGFM) is an advanced iteration of the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) model. HGFM can produce forecasts at a spatial scale of ~6 km in tropics. It demonstrates improved accuracy in short- to medium-range weather prediction over the Indian region, with notable success in predicting extreme events. Further, the model will be entrusted to operational forecasting agencies after validation and testing.
Jenna Ritvanen, Seppo Pulkkinen, Dmitri Moisseev, and Daniele Nerini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1851–1878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, 2025
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Nowcasting models struggle with the rapid evolution of heavy rain, and common verification methods are unable to describe how accurately the models predict the growth and decay of heavy rain. We propose a framework to assess model performance. In the framework, convective cells are identified and tracked in the forecasts and observations, and the model skill is then evaluated by comparing differences between forecast and observed cells. We demonstrate the framework with four open-source models.
Andrew Geiss and Po-Lun Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1809–1827, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, 2025
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Particles in the Earth's atmosphere strongly impact the planet's energy budget, and atmosphere simulations require accurate representation of their interaction with light. This work introduces two approaches to represent light scattering by small particles. The first is a scattering simulator based on Mie theory implemented in Python. The second is a neural network emulator that is more accurate than existing methods and is fast enough to be used in climate and weather simulations.
Qin Wang, Bo Zeng, Gong Chen, and Yaoting Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1769–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates the performance of four planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in near-surface wind fields over the Sichuan Basin, China. Using 112 sensitivity experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and focusing on 28 wind events, it is found that wind direction was less sensitive to the PBL schemes. The quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE) scheme captured temporal variations best, while the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ) scheme had the least error in wind speed.
Tai-Long He, Nikhil Dadheech, Tammy M. Thompson, and Alexander J. Turner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1661–1671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, 2025
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It is computationally expensive to infer greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions using atmospheric observations. This is partly due to the detailed model used to represent atmospheric transport. We demonstrate how a machine learning (ML) model can be used to simulate high-resolution atmospheric transport. This type of ML model will help estimate GHG emissions using dense observations, which are becoming increasingly common with the proliferation of urban monitoring networks and geostationary satellites.
Wei Li, Beiming Tang, Patrick C. Campbell, Youhua Tang, Barry Baker, Zachary Moon, Daniel Tong, Jianping Huang, Kai Wang, Ivanka Stajner, and Raffaele Montuoro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1635–1660, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, 2025
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The study describes the updates of NOAA's current UFS-AQMv7 air quality forecast model by incorporating the latest scientific and structural changes in CMAQv5.4. An evaluation during the summer of 2023 shows that the updated model overall improves the simulation of MDA8 O3 by reducing the bias by 8%–12% in the contiguous US. PM2.5 predictions have mixed results due to wildfire, highlighting the need for future refinements.
Yanwei Zhu, Aitor Atencia, Markus Dabernig, and Yong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1545–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, 2025
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Most works have delved into convective weather nowcasting, and only a few works have discussed the nowcasting uncertainty for variables at the surface level. Hence, we proposed a method to estimate uncertainty. Generating appropriate noises associated with the characteristic of the error in analysis can simulate the uncertainty of nowcasting. This method can contribute to the estimation of near–surface analysis uncertainty in both nowcasting applications and ensemble nowcasting development.
Joël Thanwerdas, Antoine Berchet, Lionel Constantin, Aki Tsuruta, Michael Steiner, Friedemann Reum, Stephan Henne, and Dominik Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1505–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, 2025
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The Community Inversion Framework (CIF) brings together methods for estimating greenhouse gas fluxes from atmospheric observations. The initial ensemble method implemented in CIF was found to be incomplete and could hardly be compared to other ensemble methods employed in the inversion community. In this paper, we present and evaluate a new implementation of the ensemble mode, building upon the initial developments.
Astrid Kerkweg, Timo Kirfel, Duong H. Do, Sabine Griessbach, Patrick Jöckel, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1265–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, 2025
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Normally, the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) is linked to complete dynamic models to create chemical climate models. However, the modular concept of MESSy and the newly developed DWARF component presented here make it possible to create simplified models that contain only one or a few process descriptions. This is very useful for technical optimisation, such as porting to GPUs, and can be used to create less complex models, such as a chemical box model.
Edward C. Chan, Ilona J. Jäkel, Basit Khan, Martijn Schaap, Timothy M. Butler, Renate Forkel, and Sabine Banzhaf
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1119–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025, 2025
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An enhanced emission module has been developed for the PALM model system, improving flexibility and scalability of emission source representation across different sectors. A model for parametrized domestic emissions has also been included, for which an idealized model run is conducted for particulate matter (PM10). The results show that, in addition to individual sources and diurnal variations in energy consumption, vertical transport and urban topology play a role in concentration distribution.
Gregor Ehrensperger, Thorsten Simon, Georg J. Mayr, and Tobias Hell
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1141–1153, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1141-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1141-2025, 2025
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As lightning is a brief and localized event, it is not explicitly resolved in atmospheric models. Instead, expert-based auxiliary descriptions are used to assess it. This study explores how AI can improve our understanding of lightning without relying on traditional expert knowledge. We reveal that AI independently identified the key factors known to experts as essential for lightning in the Alps region. This shows how knowledge discovery could be sped up in areas with limited expert knowledge.
David Patoulias, Kalliopi Florou, and Spyros N. Pandis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1103–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1103-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1103-2025, 2025
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The effect of the assumed atmospheric nucleation mechanism on particle number concentrations and size distribution was investigated. Two quite different mechanisms involving sulfuric acid and ammonia or a biogenic organic vapor gave quite similar results which were consistent with measurements at 26 measurement stations across Europe. The number of larger particles that serve as cloud condensation nuclei showed little sensitivity to the assumed nucleation mechanism.
Tim Radke, Susanne Fuchs, Christian Wilms, Iuliia Polkova, and Marc Rautenhaus
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1017–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1017-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1017-2025, 2025
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In our study, we built upon previous work to investigate the patterns artificial intelligence (AI) learns to detect atmospheric features like tropical cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs). As primary objective, we adopt a method to explain the AI used and investigate the plausibility of learned patterns. We find that plausible patterns are learned for both TCs and ARs. Hence, the chosen method is very useful for gaining confidence in the AI-based detection of atmospheric features.
Raphaël Périllat, Sylvain Girard, and Irène Korsakissok
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3838, 2025
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We developed a method to improve decision-making during nuclear crises by predicting the spread of radiation more efficiently. Existing approaches are often too slow, especially when analyzing complex data like radiation maps. Our method combines techniques to simplify these maps and predict them quickly using statistical tools. This approach could help authorities respond faster and more accurately in emergencies, reducing risks to the population and the environment.
Shaofeng Hua, Gang Chen, Baojun Chen, Mingshan Li, and Xin Xu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3834, 2025
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Hail forecasting using numerical models remains a challenge. In this study, we found that the commonly used graupel-to-hail conversion parameterization method led to hail overforecasting in heavy rainfall cases where no hail was observed. By incorporating the spongy wet growth process, we successfully mitigated hail overforecasting. The modified scheme also produced hail in real hail events. This research contributes to a better understanding of hail formation.
Stefan Noll, Carsten Schmidt, Patrick Hannawald, Wolfgang Kausch, and Stefan Kimeswenger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3512, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3512, 2025
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Non-thermal emission from chemical reactions in the Earth's middle und upper atmosphere strongly contributes to the brightness of the night sky below about 2.3 µm. The new Paranal Airglow Line and Continuum Emission model calculates the emission spectrum and its variability with an unprecedented accuracy. Relying on a large spectroscopic data set from astronomical spectrographs and theoretical molecular/atomic data, it is valuable for airglow research and astronomical observatories.
Felipe Cifuentes, Henk Eskes, Enrico Dammers, Charlotte Bryan, and Folkert Boersma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 621–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-621-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-621-2025, 2025
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We tested the capability of the flux divergence approach (FDA) to reproduce known NOx emissions using synthetic NO2 satellite column retrievals from high-resolution model simulations. The FDA accurately reproduced NOx emissions when column observations were limited to the boundary layer and when the variability of the NO2 lifetime, the NOx : NO2 ratio, and NO2 profile shapes were correctly modeled. This introduces strong model dependency, reducing the simplicity of the original FDA formulation.
Stefano Ubbiali, Christian Kühnlein, Christoph Schär, Linda Schlemmer, Thomas C. Schulthess, Michael Staneker, and Heini Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 529–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, 2025
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We explore a high-level programming model for porting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model codes to graphics processing units (GPUs). We present a Python rewrite with the domain-specific library GT4Py (GridTools for Python) of two renowned cloud microphysics schemes and the associated tangent-linear and adjoint algorithms. We find excellent portability, competitive GPU performance, robust execution on diverse computing architectures, and enhanced code maintainability and user productivity.
Pieter Rijsdijk, Henk Eskes, Arlene Dingemans, K. Folkert Boersma, Takashi Sekiya, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, and Sander Houweling
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 483–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-483-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-483-2025, 2025
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Clustering high-resolution satellite observations into superobservations improves model validation and data assimilation applications. In our paper, we derive quantitative uncertainties for satellite NO2 column observations based on knowledge of the retrievals, including a detailed analysis of spatial error correlations and representativity errors. The superobservations and uncertainty estimates are tested in a global chemical data assimilation system and are found to improve the forecasts.
Dario Di Santo, Cenlin He, Fei Chen, and Lorenzo Giovannini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 433–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-433-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-433-2025, 2025
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This paper presents the Machine Learning-based Automated Multi-method Parameter Sensitivity and Importance analysis Tool (ML-AMPSIT), a computationally efficient tool that uses machine learning algorithms for sensitivity analysis in atmospheric models. It is tested with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) land surface model to investigate sea breeze circulation sensitivity to vegetation-related parameters.
Robert Schoetter, Robin James Hogan, Cyril Caliot, and Valéry Masson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 405–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, 2025
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Radiation is relevant to the atmospheric impact on people and infrastructure in cities as it can influence the urban heat island, building energy consumption, and human thermal comfort. A new urban radiation model, assuming a more realistic form of urban morphology, is coupled to the urban climate model Town Energy Balance (TEB). The new TEB is evaluated with a reference radiation model for a variety of urban morphologies, and an improvement in the simulated radiative observables is found.
Zebediah Engberg, Roger Teoh, Tristan Abbott, Thomas Dean, Marc E. J. Stettler, and Marc L. Shapiro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 253–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025, 2025
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Contrails forming in some atmospheric conditions may persist and become strongly warming cirrus, while in other conditions may be neutral or cooling. We develop a contrail forecast model to predict contrail climate forcing for any arbitrary point in space and time and explore integration into flight planning and air traffic management. This approach enables contrail interventions to target high-probability high-climate-impact regions and reduce unintended consequences of contrail management.
Nils Eingrüber, Alina Domm, Wolfgang Korres, and Karl Schneider
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 141–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-141-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-141-2025, 2025
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Climate change adaptation measures like unsealings can reduce urban heat stress. As grass grid pavers have never been parameterized for microclimate model simulations with ENVI-met, a new parameterization was developed based on field measurements. To analyse the cooling potential, scenario analyses were performed for a densely developed area in Cologne. Statistically significant average cooling effects of up to −11.1 K were found for surface temperature and up to −2.9 K for 1 m air temperature.
Xuan Wang, Lei Bi, Hong Wang, Yaqiang Wang, Wei Han, Xueshun Shen, and Xiaoye Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 117–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-117-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-117-2025, 2025
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The Artificial-Intelligence-based Nonspherical Aerosol Optical Scheme (AI-NAOS) was developed to improve the estimation of the aerosol direct radiation effect and was coupled online with a chemical weather model. The AI-NAOS scheme considers black carbon as fractal aggregates and soil dust as super-spheroids, encapsulated with hygroscopic aerosols. Real-case simulations emphasize the necessity of accurately representing nonspherical and inhomogeneous aerosols in chemical weather models.
Lukas Pfitzenmaier, Pavlos Kollias, Nils Risse, Imke Schirmacher, Bernat Puigdomenech Treserras, and Katia Lamer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 101–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-101-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-101-2025, 2025
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The Python tool Orbital-Radar transfers suborbital radar data (ground-based, airborne, and forward-simulated numerical weather prediction model) into synthetic spaceborne cloud profiling radar data, mimicking platform-specific instrument characteristics, e.g. EarthCARE or CloudSat. The tool's novelty lies in simulating characteristic errors and instrument noise. Thus, existing data sets are transferred into synthetic observations and can be used for satellite calibration–validation studies.
Aurélien Mirebeau, Cécile de Munck, Bertrand Bonan, Christine Delire, Aude Lemonsu, Valéry Masson, and Stephan Weber
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-233, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-233, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The greening of cities is recommended to limit the effects of climate change. In particular, green roofs can provide numerous environmental benefits, such as urban cooling, water retention and carbon sequestration. The aim of this research is to develop a new module for calculating green roof CO2 fluxes within a model that can already simulate hydrological and thermal processes of such roofs. The calibration and evaluation of this module take advantage of long term experimental data.
Mark Buehner, Jean-Francois Caron, Ervig Lapalme, Alain Caya, Ping Du, Yves Rochon, Sergey Skachko, Maziar Bani Shahabadi, Sylvain Heilliette, Martin Deshaies-Jacques, Weiguang Chang, and Michael Sitwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1-2025, 2025
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The Modular and Integrated Data Assimilation System (MIDAS) software is described. The flexible design of MIDAS enables both deterministic and ensemble prediction applications for the atmosphere and several other Earth system components. It is currently used for all main operational weather prediction systems in Canada and also for sea ice and sea surface temperature analysis. The use of MIDAS for multiple Earth system components will facilitate future research on coupled data assimilation.
Alexander de Meij, Cornelis Cuvelier, Philippe Thunis, and Enrico Pisoni
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3690, 2025
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We assess the relevance and utility indicators developed within FAIRMODE by evaluating 9 CAMS models in calculated air pollutant values. For NO2, the results highlight difficulties at traffic stations. For PM2.5 and PM10 the bias and Winter-Summer gradients reveal issues. O3 evaluation shows that e.g. seasonal gradients are useful. Overall, the indicators provide valuable insights into model limitations, yet there is a need to reconsider the strictness of some indicators for certain pollutants.
Zichen Wu, Xueshun Chen, Zifa Wang, Huansheng Chen, Zhe Wang, Qing Mu, Lin Wu, Wending Wang, Xiao Tang, Jie Li, Ying Li, Qizhong Wu, Yang Wang, Zhiyin Zou, and Zijian Jiang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8885–8907, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8885-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8885-2024, 2024
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We developed a model to simulate polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from global to regional scales. The model can reproduce PAH distribution well. The concentration of BaP (indicator species for PAHs) could exceed the target values of 1 ng m-3 over some areas (e.g., in central Europe, India, and eastern China). The change in BaP is lower than that in PM2.5 from 2013 to 2018. China still faces significant potential health risks posed by BaP although the Action Plan has been implemented.
Marie Taufour, Jean-Pierre Pinty, Christelle Barthe, Benoît Vié, and Chien Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8773–8798, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8773-2024, 2024
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We have developed a complete two-moment version of the LIMA (Liquid Ice Multiple Aerosols) microphysics scheme. We have focused on collection processes, where the hydrometeor number transfer is often estimated in proportion to the mass transfer. The impact of these parameterizations on a convective system and the prospects for more realistic estimates of secondary parameters (reflectivity, hydrometeor size) are shown in a first test on an idealized case.
Jize Jiang, David S. Stevenson, Aimable Uwizeye, Giuseppe Tempio, Alessandra Falcucci, Flavia Casu, and Mark A. Sutton
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3803, 2024
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A special model called AMmonia–CLIMate (AMCLIM) has been developed to understand and calculate NH3 emissions from livestock farming. It is estimated that about 30 % of excreted N from livestock was lost due to NH3 emissions from housing, manure management and land application of manure. High NH3 volatilization often occurred in hot regions, while poor management practices also result in significant N losses through NH3 emissions.
Maksym Vasiuta, Angel Navarro Trastoy, Sanam Motlaghzadeh, Lauri Tuppi, Torsten Mayer-Gürr, and Heikki Järvinen
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-136, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Propagation of electromagnetic signals in the Earth's neutral atmosphere inflicts errors in space geodetic observations. To model these errors as accurately as possible, it is necessary to use a signal ray tracing algorithm which is informed of the state of the atmosphere. We developed such algorithm and tested it by modelling errors in GNSS network observations. Our algorithm's main advantage is loss-less utilization of atmospheric information provided by numerical weather prediction models.
Yuya Takane, Yukihiro Kikegawa, Ko Nakajima, and Hiroyuki Kusaka
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8639–8664, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8639-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8639-2024, 2024
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A new parameterisation for dynamic anthropogenic heat and electricity consumption is described. The model reproduced the temporal variation in and spatial distributions of electricity consumption and temperature well in summer and winter. The partial air conditioning was the most critical factor, significantly affecting the value of anthropogenic heat emission.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Fredrik Jansson, Bart van Stratum, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, and Sander Houweling
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3721, 2024
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We introduce a new simulation platform based on the Dutch Large-Eddy Simulation (DALES) to simulate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their dispersion in the turbulent environments with hectometer resolution. This model incorporates both anthropogenic emission inventory and ecosystem exchanges. Simulation results for the main urban area in the Netherlands demonstrate a strong potential of DALES to enhance CO2 emission modeling, which is important for refining their reduction strategies.
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Short summary
With the worldwide development of the solar energy sector, the need for reliable solar radiation forecasts has significantly increased. However, meteorological models that predict, among others things, solar radiation have errors. Therefore, we wanted to know in which situtaions these errors are most significant. We found that errors mostly occur in cloudy situations, and different errors were highlighted depending on the cloud altitude. Several potential sources of errors were identified.
With the worldwide development of the solar energy sector, the need for reliable solar radiation...
