Evaluation of surface shortwave downward radiation forecasts by the numerical weather prediction model AROME

Magnaldo, Marie-Adèle; Libois, Quentin; Riette, Sébastien; Lac, Christine

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1091-2024

Articles | Volume 17, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1091-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1091-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 17, issue 3

Methods for assessment of models

|

09 Feb 2024

Methods for assessment of models |

| 09 Feb 2024

Evaluation of surface shortwave downward radiation forecasts by the numerical weather prediction model AROME

Marie-Adèle Magnaldo, Quentin Libois, Sébastien Riette, and Christine Lac

Data sets

Cloud satellite products developed by the NWC Eumetsat SAF NWC Eumetsat SAF https://www.icare.univ-lille.fr/

satellite product from Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service CAMS https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/

Observations of shortwave downward radiation from the operational observation network of Météo-France Météo-France https://donneespubliques.meteofrance.fr/?fond=produit&id_produit=298&id_rubrique=32

AROME forecasts of surface shortwave downward radiation for year 2020 Magnaldo Marie-Adèle et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7928622

Model code and software

AROME Météo-France http://www.umr-cnrm.fr/accord/

Short summary

With the worldwide development of the solar energy sector, the need for reliable solar radiation forecasts has significantly increased. However, meteorological models that predict, among others things, solar radiation have errors. Therefore, we wanted to know in which situtaions these errors are most significant. We found that errors mostly occur in cloudy situations, and different errors were highlighted depending on the cloud altitude. Several potential sources of errors were identified.