Articles | Volume 16, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4331-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4331-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| Highlight paper
| 
31 Jul 2023
Model description paper | Highlight paper |
| 31 Jul 2023
| 31 Jul 2023
DSCIM-Coastal v1.1: an open-source modeling platform for global impacts of sea level rise
Energy & Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA
Global Policy Lab, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA
The Rhodium Group, Oakland, California, USA
Global Policy Lab, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA
BlackRock, San Francisco, California, USA
Daniel Allen
Global Policy Lab, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA
Jun Ho Choi
Kenneth C. Griffin Department of Economics, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
Michael Delgado
The Rhodium Group, Oakland, California, USA
Michael Greenstone
National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
Kenneth C. Griffin Department of Economics, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
Ali Hamidi
The Rhodium Group, Oakland, California, USA
BlackRock, San Francisco, California, USA
Trevor Houser
The Rhodium Group, Oakland, California, USA
Robert E. Kopp
Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences and Rutgers Institute of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA
Solomon Hsiang
Global Policy Lab, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA
National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
Related authors
No articles found.
Yucheng Lin, Robert E. Kopp, Alexander Reedy, Matteo Turilli, Shantenu Jha, and Erica L. Ashe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2609–2637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2609-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
PaleoSTeHM v1.0 is a state-of-the-art framework designed to reconstruct past environmental conditions using geological data. Built on modern machine learning techniques, it efficiently handles the sparse and noisy nature of paleo-records, allowing scientists to make accurate and scalable inferences about past environmental change. By using flexible statistical models, PaleoSTeHM separates different sources of uncertainty, improving the precision of historical climate reconstructions.
Diana R. Gergel, Steven B. Malevich, Kelly E. McCusker, Emile Tenezakis, Michael T. Delgado, Meredith A. Fish, and Robert E. Kopp
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 191–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The freely available Global Downscaled Projections for Climate Impacts Research (GDPCIR) dataset gives researchers a new tool for studying how future climate will evolve at a local or regional level, corresponding to the latest global climate model simulations prepared as part of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report. Those simulations represent an enormous advance in quality, detail, and scope that GDPCIR translates to the local level.
Robert E. Kopp, Gregory G. Garner, Tim H. J. Hermans, Shantenu Jha, Praveen Kumar, Alexander Reedy, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Matteo Turilli, Tamsin L. Edwards, Jonathan M. Gregory, George Koubbe, Anders Levermann, Andre Merzky, Sophie Nowicki, Matthew D. Palmer, and Chris Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7461–7489, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future sea-level rise projections exhibit multiple forms of uncertainty, all of which must be considered by scientific assessments intended to inform decision-making. The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) is a new software package intended to support assessments of global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level rise. An early version of FACTS supported the development of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report sea-level projections.
Erica L. Ashe, Nicole S. Khan, Lauren T. Toth, Andrea Dutton, and Robert E. Kopp
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 8, 1–29, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-1-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a new technique to integrate realistic uncertainties in probabilistic models of past sea-level change. The new framework performs better than past methods (in precision, accuracy, bias, and model fit) because it enables the incorporation of previously unused data and exploits correlations in the data. This method has the potential to assess the validity of past estimates of extreme sea-level rise and highstands providing better context in which to place current sea-level change.
Cited articles
Arino, O., Ramos Perez, J. J., Kalogirou, V., Bontemps, S., Defourny, P., and Van Bogaert, E.: Global Land Cover Map for 2009 (GlobCover 2009), © European Space Agency (ESA) & Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.787668, 2012. a, b
Armstrong, S. B., Lazarus, E. D., Limber, P. W., Goldstein, E. B., Thorpe, C.,
and Ballinger, R. C.: Indications of a positive feedback between coastal
development and beach nourishment, Earth's Future, 4, 626–635,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000425, 2016. a, b, c
Bakkensen, L. A. and Mendelsohn, R. O.: Risk and Adaptation: Evidence from
Global Hurricane Damages and Fatalities, Journal of the Association
of Environmental and Resource Economists, 3, 555–587, https://doi.org/10.1086/685908,
2016. a
Bakkensen, L. A., Park, D.-S. R., and Sarkar, R. S. R.: Climate costs of
tropical cyclone losses also depend on rain, Environ. Res. Lett.,
13, 074034, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aad056, 2018. a
Berlemann, M. and Wesselhöft, J.-E.: Aggregate Capital Stock Estimations
for 122 Countries: An Update, Rev. Econ., 68, 75–92,
https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2017-0004, 2017. a, b, c
Berrang-Ford, L., Siders, A. R., Lesnikowski, A., Fischer, A. P., Callaghan,
M. W., Haddaway, N. R., Mach, K. J., Araos, M., Shah, M. A. R., Wannewitz,
M., Doshi, D., Leiter, T., Matavel, C., Musah-Surugu, J. I., Wong-Parodi, G.,
Antwi-Agyei, P., Ajibade, I., Chauhan, N., Kakenmaster, W., Grady, C.,
Chalastani, V. I., Jagannathan, K., Galappaththi, E. K., Sitati, A., Scarpa,
G., Totin, E., Davis, K., Hamilton, N. C., Kirchhoff, C. J., Kumar, P.,
Pentz, B., Simpson, N. P., Theokritoff, E., Deryng, D., Reckien, D.,
Zavaleta-Cortijo, C., Ulibarri, N., Segnon, A. C., Khavhagali, V., Shang, Y.,
Zvobgo, L., Zommers, Z., Xu, J., Williams, P. A., Canosa, I. V., van Maanen,
N., van Bavel, B., van Aalst, M., Turek-Hankins, L. L., Trivedi, H., Trisos,
C. H., Thomas, A., Thakur, S., Templeman, S., Stringer, L. C., Sotnik, G.,
Sjostrom, K. D., Singh, C., Siña, M. Z., Shukla, R., Sardans, J., Salubi,
E. A., Safaee Chalkasra, L. S., Ruiz-Díaz, R., Richards, C., Pokharel, P.,
Petzold, J., Penuelas, J., Pelaez Avila, J., Murillo, J. B. P., Ouni, S.,
Niemann, J., Nielsen, M., New, M., Nayna Schwerdtle, P., Nagle Alverio, G.,
Mullin, C. A., Mullenite, J., Mosurska, A., Morecroft, M. D., Minx, J. C.,
Maskell, G., Nunbogu, A. M., Magnan, A. K., Lwasa, S., Lukas-Sithole, M.,
Lissner, T., Lilford, O., Koller, S. F., Jurjonas, M., Joe, E. T., Huynh, L.
T. M., Hill, A., Hernandez, R. R., Hegde, G., Hawxwell, T., Harper, S.,
Harden, A., Haasnoot, M., Gilmore, E. A., Gichuki, L., Gatt, A., Garschagen,
M., Ford, J. D., Forbes, A., Farrell, A. D., Enquist, C. A. F., Elliott, S.,
Duncan, E., Coughlan de Perez, E., Coggins, S., Chen, T., Campbell, D.,
Browne, K. E., Bowen, K. J., Biesbroek, R., Bhatt, I. D., Bezner Kerr, R.,
Barr, S. L., Baker, E., Austin, S. E., Arotoma-Rojas, I., Anderson, C., Ajaz,
W., Agrawal, T., and Abu, T. Z.: A systematic global stocktake of evidence on
human adaptation to climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 989–1000,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01170-y, 2021. a
Bertram, G.: On the Convergence of Small Island Economies with Their
Metropolitan Patrons, World Development, 32, 343–364,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2003.08.004, 2004. a
Bolliger, I., Depsky, N., Allen, D., Choi, J. H., Delgado, M., Greenstone, M., Hamidi, A., Houser, T., Hsiang, S., and Kopp, R. E.: SLIIDERS: Sea Level Impacts Input Dataset by Elevation, Region, and Scenario (1.1.0), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7693868, 2023a. a, b
Bolliger, I., Depsky, N., Allen, D., Choi, J. H., Delgado, M., Greenstone, M., Hamidi, A., Houser, T., Hsiang, S., and Kopp, R. E.: Estimates of Global Coastal Losses Under Multiple Sea Level Rise Scenarios (1.1.0), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7693869, 2023b. a, b
Bono, A. D. and Chatenoux, B.: A Global Exposure Model for GAR 2015,
Input Paper prepared for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster
Risk Reduction, The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction,
Geneva, Switzerland,
https://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2015/en/bgdocs/risk-section/De Bono, Andrea, Bruno Chatenoux. 2015. A Global Exposure Model for GAR 2015, UNEP-GRID.pdf (last access: 2 September 2021),
2014. a, b
Bootsma, J.: Evaluating methods to assess the coastal flood hazard on a global
scale : a comparative analysis between the Bathtub approach and the
LISFLOOD-AC model, http://essay.utwente.nl/90697/ (last access: 21 March 2023), 2022. a
Bower, E. and Weerasinghe, S.: Leaving Place, Restoring Home: Enhancing the Evidence Base on Planned Relocation Cases in the Context of Hazards, Disasters, and Climate Change, Platform on Disaster Displacement (PDD) and Andrew & Renata Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, 2021. a
Bunting, P., Rosenqvist, A., Lucas, R. M., Rebelo, L.-M., Hilarides, L.,
Thomas, N., Hardy, A., Itoh, T., Shimada, M., and Finlayson, C. M.: The
Global Mangrove Watch – A New 2010 Global Baseline of
Mangrove Extent, Remote Sens., 10, 1669, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10101669,
2018. a, b
Bunting, P., Rosenqvist, A., Hilarides, L., Lucas, R., Thomas, N., Tadono, T., Worthington, T., Spalding, M., Murray, N., and Rebelo, L.-M.: Global Mangrove Watch (1996–2020) Version 3.0 Dataset (3.0), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6894273, 2022. a, b
Carleton, T., Jina, A., Delgado, M., Greenstone, M., Houser, T., Hsiang, S.,
Hultgren, A., Kopp, R. E., McCusker, K. E., Nath, I., Rising, J., Rode, A.,
Seo, H. K., Viaene, A., Yuan, J., and Zhang, A. T.: Valuing the Global
Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for
Adaptation Costs and Benefits, Q. J. Econ.,
137, 2037–2105, https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac020, 2022. a, b
Center for International Earth Science Information Network – CIESIN – Columbia University: Gridded Population of the World,
Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, NASA [data set],
https://doi.org/10.7927/H4NP22DQ,
2016. a
Church, J., Clark, P. U., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J. M., Jevrejeva, S.,
Levermann, A., Merrifield, M. A., Milne, G. A., Nerem, R. S., Dunn, P. D.,
Payne, A. J., Pfeffer, W. T., Stammer, D., and Unnikrishnan, A. S.: 2013: Sea
Level Change, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science
Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by:
Stocker, T., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K.,
Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA,
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter13_FINAL.pdf (last access: 31 January 2023),
2013. a
Craig, R. K.: Coastal adaptation, government-subsidized insurance, and perverse
incentives to stay, Clim. Change, 152, 215–226,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2203-5, 2019. a
daniellincke: daniellincke/DIVA_paper_migration: Coastal migration due to 21st century sea-level rise (1.0), Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4459151, 2021. a
DeConto, R. M., Pollard, D., Alley, R. B., Velicogna, I., Gasson, E., Gomez,
N., Sadai, S., Condron, A., Gilford, D. M., Ashe, E. L., Kopp, R. E., Li, D.,
and Dutton, A.: The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise
from Antarctica, Nature, 593, 83–89, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03427-0,
2021. a, b, c, d, e
Diaz, D. B.: Estimating global damages from sea level rise with the Coastal
Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM), Clim. Change, 137, 143–156,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1675-4, 2016. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p, q, r, s, t, u, v, w, x, y, z, aa, ab, ac, ad, ae, af, ag, ah, ai, aj, ak, al, am, an, ao, ap, aq, ar, as, at, au, av, aw, ax, ay, az, ba, bb, bc, bd, be, bf, bg, bh, bi, bj, bk, bl, bm, bn, bo, bp, bq, br, bs, bt, bu, bv, bw, bx, by, bz, ca, cb, cc, cd, ce, cf, cg, ch, ci, cj, ck, cl, cm, cn, co, cp, cq, cr, cs, ct, cu, cv, cw, cx, cy, cz, da, db, dc
Dronkers, J., Gilbert, J. T. E., Butler, L. W., Carey, J. J., Campbell, J.,
James, E., Mckenzie, C., Misdorp, R., Quin, N., Vallianos, L., and Dadelszen,
J. V.: Strategies for Adaptation to Sea Level Rise, Report of the IPCC Coastal Zone Management Subgroup: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, http://papers.risingsea.net/federal_reports/IPCC-1990-adaption-to-sea-level-rise.pdf (last access: 21 March 2023), 1990. a
Eberenz, S.,
Stocker, D.,
Röösli, T., and
Bresch, D. N.: LitPop: Global Exposure Data for Disaster Risk Assessment, ETH Zürich [data set], https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000331316, 2020b. a
Fariss, C. J., Anders, T., Markowitz, J. N., and Barnum, M.: New Estimates of
Over 500 Years of Historic GDP and Population Data, J.
Conflict Resolut., 66, 553–591, https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027211054432, 2022a. a, b
Fariss, C., Anders, T., Markowitz, J., and Barnum, M.: Latent Estimates of Historic Gross Domestic Product, GDP per capita, Surplus Domestic Product, and Population Data Version 1, Harvard Dataverse, V1 [data set], https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/FALCGS, 2022b. a
Farr, T. G., Rosen, P. A., Caro, E., Crippen, R., Duren, R., Hensley, S., Kobrick, M., Paller, M., Rodriguez, E., Roth, L., Seal, D., Shaffer, S. Shimada, J., Umland, J., Werner, M., Oskin, M., Burbank, D., and Alsdorf, D.: The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, Rev. Geophys., 45, RG2004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005RG000183, 2007. a
Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H. T., Xiao, C., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Drijfhout,
S. S., Edwards, T. L., Golledge, N. R., Hemer, M., Kopp, R. E., and Krinner,
G.: Ocean, cryosphere and sea level change, Climate Change 2021: The Physical
Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V.,
Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y.,
Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R.,
Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B.,
1211–1362, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.011, 2021. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
GADM: https://gadm.org/index.html, last access: 21 March 2023. a
Garner, G. G., Hermans, T., Kopp, R. E., Slangen, A. B. A., Edwards, T. L., Levermann, A., Nowicki, S., Palmer, M. D., Smith, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H. T., Xiao, C., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Drijfhout, S. S., Golledge, N. R., Hemer, M., Krinner, G., Mix, A., Notz, D., Nurhati, I. S., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B., Yu, Y., Hua, L., Palmer, T., Pearson, B.: IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections (Version 20210809), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6382554, 2021. a, b, c, d
GLOBE Task Team, Hastings, D. A., Dunbar, P. K., Elphingstone, G. M., Bootz, M., Murakami, H., Maruyama, H., Masaharu, H., Holland, P., Payne, J., Bryant, N. A., Logan, T. L., Muller, J.-P., Schreier, G., and MacDonald, J. S. (Eds.): The Global Land One-kilometer Base Elevation (GLOBE) Digital Elevation Model, Version 1.0. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Geophysical Data Center [data set], http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/topo/globe.html (last access: 21 March 2023), 1999. a
Gregory, J. M., Griffies, S. M., Hughes, C. W., Lowe, J. A., Church, J. A.,
Fukimori, I., Gomez, N., Kopp, R. E., Landerer, F., Cozannet, G. L., Ponte,
R. M., Stammer, D., Tamisiea, M. E., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Concepts and
Terminology for Sea Level: Mean, Variability and Change, Both
Local and Global, Surv. Geophys., 40, 1251–1289,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09525-z, 2019. a
Groningen Growth and Development Centre: Penn World Table version 10.0, DataverseNL [data set], https://doi.org/10.15141/S5Q94M, 2023. a, b, c, d
Haasnoot, M., Brown, S., Scussolini, P., Jimenez, J. A., Vafeidis, A. T., and
Nicholls, R. J.: Generic adaptation pathways for coastal archetypes under
uncertain sea-level rise, Environ. Res. Commun., 1, 1,
https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab1871, 2019. a
Haer, T., Botzen, W. J., de Moel, H., and Aerts, J. C.: Integrating Household
Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An
Agent-Based Model Approach, Risk Analysis, 37, 1977–1992,
https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12740, 2017. a, b
Hallegatte, S., Green, C., Nicholls, R. J., and Corfee-Morlot, J.: Future flood
losses in major coastal cities, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 802–806,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1979, 2013. a
Heston, A., Summers, R., and Aten, B.: Penn World Table Version 7.0,
Tech. rep., Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and
Prices at the University of Pennsylvania,
https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt/pwt-releases/pwt-7.0 (last access: 21 March 2023),
2011. a
Hinkel, J. and Klein, R. J. T.: Integrating knowledge to assess coastal
vulnerability to sea-level rise: The development of the DIVA tool, Global
Environ. Change, 19, 384–395, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.03.002,
2009. a, b, c
Hinkel, J., van Vuuren, D. P., Nicholls, R. J., and Klein, R. J. T.: The
effects of adaptation and mitigation on coastal flood impacts during the 21st
century. An application of the DIVA and IMAGE models, Clim. Change,
117, 783–794, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0564-8, 2013. a
Hinkel, J., Lincke, D., Vafeidis, A. T., Perrette, M., Nicholls, R. J., Tol,
R. S., Marzeion, B., Fettweis, X., Ionescu, C., and Levermann, A.: Coastal
flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3292–3297, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222469111, 2014. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i
Hinkel, J., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Brown, S., Jiménez, J. A., Lincke, D.,
Nicholls, R. J., Scussolini, P., Sanchez-Arcilla, A., Vafeidis, A., and Addo,
K. A.: The ability of societies to adapt to twenty-first-century sea-level
rise, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 570–578, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0176-z,
2018. a, b, c
Hoozemans, F. M., Marchand, M., and Pennekamp, H.: A global vulnerability
analysis: vulnerability assessment for population, coastal wetlands and rice
production on a global scale, Technical Report 2nd Edition, Delft
Hydraulics, the Netherlands,
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282669649_A_global_vulnerability_analysis_vulnerability_assessment_for_population_coastal_wetlands_and_rice_production_on_a_global_scale (last access: 21 March 2023),
1993. a
Hsiang, S., Kopp, R., Jina, A., Rising, J., Delgado, M., Mohan, S., Rasmussen, D. J., Muir-Wood, R., Wilson, P., Oppenheimer, M., Larsen, K., and Houser, T.: Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States, Science, 356, 1362–1369, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aal4369, 2017. a
Hu, S., Niu, Z., and Chen, Y.: Global Wetland Datasets: a Review,
Wetlands, 37, 807–817, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13157-017-0927-z, 2017. a
International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook Database 2011, Tech. rep.,
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2011/September (last access: 21 March 2023),
2011. a
Jones, B. and O'Neill, B. C.: Spatially explicit global population scenarios
consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Environ.
Res. Lett., 11, 084003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084003, 2016. a
Jonkman, S. and Vrijling, J.: Loss of life due to floods, J. Flood Risk
Manage., 1, 43–56, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2008.00006.x, 2008. a
Kc, S. and Lutz, W.: The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways:
Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries
to 2100, Global Environ. Change, 42, 181–192,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.004, 2017. a, b
Kopp, R. E. and Rasmussen, D. J.: LocalizeSL (3.2), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6029807, 2021. a, b
Kopp, R. E., Horton, R. M., Little, C. M., Mitrovica, J. X., Oppenheimer, M.,
Rasmussen, D. J., Strauss, B. H., and Tebaldi, C.: Probabilistic 21st and
22nd century sea‐level projections at a global network of tide‐gauge
sites, Earth's Future, 2, 383–406, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014ef000239, 2014. a, b, c, d, e, f
Kopp, R. E., DeConto, R. M., Bader, D. A., Hay, C. C., Horton, R. M., Kulp, S.,
Oppenheimer, M., Pollard, D., and Strauss, B. H.: Evolving Understanding of
Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic
Sea-Level Projections, Earth's Future, 5, 1217–1233,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000663, 2017. a, b
Kopp, R. E., Gilmore, E. A., Little, C. M., Lorenzo-Trueba, J., Ramenzoni,
V. C., and Sweet, W. V.: Usable Science for Managing the Risks of
Sea-Level Rise, Earth's Future, 7, 1235–1269,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001145, 2019. a, b
Kopp, R. E., Garner, G. G., Hermans, T. H. J., Jha, S., Kumar, P., Slangen, A. B. A., Turilli, M., Edwards, T. L., Gregory, J. M., Koubbe, G., Levermann, A., Merzky, A., Nowicki, S., Palmer, M. D., and Smith, C.: The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0-rc: A platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-14, 2023. a, b
Kulp, S. A. and Strauss, B. H.: CoastalDEM: A global coastal digital
elevation model improved from SRTM using a neural network, Remote Sens. Environ., 206, 231–239, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.12.026, 2018. a
Kulp, S. A. and Strauss, B. H.: New elevation data triple estimates of global
vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding, Nat. Commun.,
10, 4844, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z, 2019. a, b, c, d
Lickley, M. J., Lin, N., and Jacoby, H. D.: Analysis of coastal protection
under rising flood risk, Climate Risk Manage., 6, 18–26,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2015.01.001, 2014. a
Lorie, M., Neumann, J. E., Sarofim, M. C., Jones, R., Horton, R. M., Kopp,
R. E., Fant, C., Wobus, C., Martinich, J., O'Grady, M., and Gentile, L. E.:
Modeling coastal flood risk and adaptation response under future climate
conditions, Climate Risk Management, 29, 100233,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100233, 2020. a
McNamara, D. E. and Keeler, A.: A coupled physical and economic model of the
response of coastal real estate to climate risk, Nat. Clim. Change, 3,
559–562, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1826, 2013. a
McNamara, D. E., Gopalakrishnan, S., Smith, M. D., and Murray, A. B.: Climate
adaptation and policy-induced inflation of coastal property value, PLoS ONE,
10, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0121278, 2015. a, b
Mendelsohn, R. O., Schiavo, J. G., and Felson, A.: Are American Coasts
Under-Protected?, Coast. Manage., 48, 23–37,
https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2020.1691482, 2020. a
Merkens, J.-L., Reimann, L., Hinkel, J., and Vafeidis, A. T.: Gridded
population projections for the coastal zone under the Shared
Socioeconomic Pathways, Global Planet. Change, 145, 57–66,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.08.009, 2016. a
Muis, S., Verlaan, M., Winsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., and Ward, P. J.: A
global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels, Nat.
Commun., 7, 11969, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11969, 2016. a
Muis, S., Apecechea, M. I., Dullaart, J., de Lima Rego, J., Madsen, K. S., Su,
J., Yan, K., and Verlaan, M.: A High-Resolution Global Dataset of
Extreme Sea Levels, Tides, and Storm Surges, Including Future
Projections, Front. Marine Sci., 7, 263,
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00263, 2020a. a, b, c, d, e, f
Muis, S., Apecechea, M. I., Dullaart, J., de Lima Rego, J., Madsen, K. S., Su,
J., Yan, K., and Verlaan, M.: CoDEC Dataset – Data underlying the paper “A high-resolution global dataset of extreme sea levels, tides and storm surges including future projections”, in: Frontiers of Marine Sciences, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3660927, 2020b. a, b, c
Mulet, S., Rio, M.-H., Etienne, H., Artana, C., Cancet, M., Dibarboure, G., Feng, H., Husson, R., Picot, N., Provost, C., and Strub, P. T.: The new CNES-CLS18 global mean dynamic topography, Ocean Sci., 17, 789–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-789-2021, 2021. a
Multihazard Mitigation Council: Natural Hazard Mitigation Saves 2017 Interim Report: An Independent Study – Summary of Findings, Principal Investigator: Porter, K., co-Principal Investigators: Scawthorn, C., Dash, N., Santos, J., Schneider, P., Director, MMC. National Institude of Building Sciences, Washington, 2017. a
Neumann, B., Vafeidis, A. T., Zimmermann, J., and Nicholls, R. J.: Future
coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding
– A global assessment, PLoS ONE, 10, 3, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0118571,
2015. a
Nicholls, R. J., Klein, R. J. T., and Tol, R. S. J.: Managing coastal vulnerability and
climate change: a national to global perspective, in: Managing Coastal Vulnerability, edited by: Mcfadden, L., Nicholls, R. J., and Penning-Rowsell, E., 223–241, Elsevier, ISBN 9780080447032, 2006. a
Nicholls, R. J.: Analysis of global impacts of sea-level rise: a case study of
flooding, Phys. Chem. Earth, Parts A/B/C, 27, 1455–1466,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1474-7065(02)00090-6, 2002. a
Nicholls, R. J.: Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: changes
under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios, Global Environ.
Change, 14, 69–86, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.007, 2004. a
OECD: Regional economy (Edition 2022), OECD Regional Statistics [data set], https://doi.org/10.1787/4856f683-en, 2022a. a, b, c
OECD: Regional demography (Edition 2022), OECD Regional Statistics [data set], https://doi.org/10.1787/ab091b70-en, 2022b. a, b
O'Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K. L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K.,
Rothman, D. S., van Ruijven, B. J., van Vuuren, D. P., Birkmann, J., Kok, K.,
Levy, M., and Solecki, W.: The roads ahead: Narratives for shared
socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century, Global
Environ. Change, 42, 169–180, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004,
2017. a
Oppenheimer, M., Glavovic, B., Hinkel, J., van de Wal, R., Magnan, A. K.,
Abd-Elgawad, A., Cai, R., Cifuentes-Jara, M., Deconto, R. M., Ghosh, T., Hay,
J., Isla, F., Marzeion, B., Meyssignac, B., and Sebesvari, Z.: Chapter 4:
Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts
and Communities, in: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and
Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner,
H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M.,
Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegréia, A., Nicolai,
M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.006, 2019. a, b, c
Pardaens, A. K., Lowe, J. A., Brown, S., Nicholls, R. J., and de Gusmão, D.:
Sea-level rise and impacts projections under a future scenario with large
greenhouse gas emission reductions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, 12,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047678, 2011. a
Pyo, H. K. and Kim, M.: Estimating Capital Stock in North Korea and
Its Implications, working paper, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3727104, 2020. a, b, c, d
Rasmussen, D. J., Bittermann, K., Buchanan, M. K., Kulp, S., Strauss, B. H.,
Kopp, R. E., and Oppenheimer, M.: Extreme sea level implications of 1.5 ∘C, 2.0 ∘C, and 2.5 ∘C temperature stabilization targets in the 21st
and 22nd centuries, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 034040,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaac87, 2018. a
Rasmussen, D. J., Buchanan, M. K., Kopp, R. E., and Oppenheimer, M.: A Flood
Damage Allowance Framework for Coastal Protection With Deep
Uncertainty in Sea Level Rise, Earth's Future, 8, e2019EF001340,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001340, 2020. a
Rennert, K., Errickson, F., Prest, B. C., Rennels, L., Newell, R. G., Pizer,
W., Kingdon, C., Wingenroth, J., Cooke, R., Parthum, B., Smith, D., Cromar,
K., Diaz, D., Moore, F. C., Müller, U. K., Plevin, R. J., Raftery, A. E.,
Ševčíková, H., Sheets, H., Stock, J. H., Tan, T., Watson, M., Wong,
T. E., and Anthoff, D.: Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost
of CO2, Nature, 610, 687–692, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05224-9, 2022. a
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O’Neill, B. C.,
Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp,
A., Cuaresma, J. C., Kc, S., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S.,
Emmerling, J., Ebi, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Da Silva,
L. A., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Bosetti, V., Eom, J., Gernaat, D., Masui, T.,
Rogelj, J., Strefler, J., Drouet, L., Krey, V., Luderer, G., Harmsen, M.,
Takahashi, K., Baumstark, L., Doelman, J. C., Kainuma, M., Klimont, Z.,
Marangoni, G., Lotze-Campen, H., Obersteiner, M., Tabeau, A., and Tavoni, M.:
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and
greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview, Global Environ.
Change, 42, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009, 2017. a, b, c, d
Rode, A., Carleton, T., Delgado, M., Greenstone, M., Houser, T., Hsiang, S.,
Hultgren, A., Jina, A., Kopp, R. E., McCusker, K. E., Nath, I., Rising, J.,
and Yuan, J.: Estimating a social cost of carbon for global energy
consumption, Nature, 598, 308–314, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03883-8, 2021. a
Román, M. O., Wang, Z., Sun, Q., Kalb, V., Miller, S. D., Molthan, A.,
Schultz, L., Bell, J., Stokes, E. C., Pandey, B., Seto, K. C., Hall, D., Oda,
T., Wolfe, R. E., Lin, G., Golpayegani, N., Devadiga, S., Davidson, C.,
Sarkar, S., Praderas, C., Schmaltz, J., Boller, R., Stevens, J.,
Ramos González, O. M., Padilla, E., Alonso, J., Detrés, Y., Armstrong, R.,
Miranda, I., Conte, Y., Marrero, N., MacManus, K., Esch, T., and Masuoka,
E. J.: NASA's Black Marble nighttime lights product suite, Remote
Sens. Environ., 210, 113–143, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2018.03.017, 2018. a
Sadoff, C. W., Hall, J. W., Grey, D., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Ait-Kadi, M., Brown,
C., Cox, A., Dadson, S., Garrick, D., Kelman, J., McCornick, P., Ringler, C.,
Rosegrant, M., Whittington, D., and Wiberg, D.: Securing water, sustaining
growth. Report of the GWP/OECD Task Force on Water Security and
Sustainable Growth, Tech. rep., University of Oxford,
http://www.water.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/SCHOOL-OF-GEOGRAPHY-SECURING-WATER-SUSTAINING-GROWTH-DOWNLOADABLE.pdf (last access: 21 March 2023),
2015. a
Scussolini, P., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Jongman, B., Bouwer, L. M., Winsemius, H. C., de Moel, H., and Ward, P. J.: FLOPROS: an evolving global database of flood protection standards, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1049–1061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1049-2016, 2016. a
Sims, K., Reith, A., Bright, E., McKee, J., and Rose, A.: LandScan Global
2021, edition: 2021 Place: Oak Ridge, TN Section:
1 July 2022, https://doi.org/10.48690/1527702, 2022. a, b, c
StatBank Norway: StatBank Norway data set, https://www.ssb.no/en/statbank, last access: 21 March 2023. a
Statistics | Ålands: Statistics, Statistics | Ålands [data set],
https://www.asub.ax/en/statistics, last access: 21 March 2023. a
Suckall, N., Tompkins, E. L., Nicholls, R. J., Kebede, A. S., Lázár, A. N.,
Hutton, C., Vincent, K., Allan, A., Chapman, A., Rahman, R., Ghosh, T., and
Mensah, A.: A framework for identifying and selecting long term adaptation
policy directions for deltas, Sci. Total Environ., 633,
946–957, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.234, 2018. a, b
Sweet, W., Horton, R., Kopp, R., LeGrande, A., and Romanou, A.: Ch. 12: Sea
Level Rise. Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National
Climate Assessment, Volume I, Tech. rep., U.S. Global Change Research
Program, https://doi.org/10.7930/J0VM49F2, 2017. a
Sweet, W. V., Hamlington, B. D., Kopp, R. E., Weaver, C. P., Barnard, P. L., Bekaert, D., Brooks, W., Craghan, M., Dusek, G., Frederikse, T., Garner, G., Genz, A. S., Krasting, J. P., Larour, E., Marcy, D., Marra, J. J., Obeysekera, J., Osler, M., Pendleton, M., Roman, D., Schmied, L., Veatch, W., White, K. D., and Zuzak, C.: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States: Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities Along U.S. Coastlines. NOAA Technical Report NOS 01, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 111 pp., https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/noaa-nos-techrpt01-global-regional-SLR-scenarios-US.pdf (last access: 21 March 2023), 2022a. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Sweet, W. V., Hamlington, B. D., Kopp, R. E., Weaver, C. P., Barnard, P. L., Craghan, M., Dusek, G., Frederikse, T., Garner, G., Genz, A. S., Krasting, J. P., Larour, E., Marcy, D., Marra, J. J., Obeysekera, J., Osler, M., Pendleton, M., Roman, D., Schmied, L., Veatch, W. C., White, K. D., Zuzak, C.: Interagency report: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States: Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities Along U.S. Coastlines (Version 1.1), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6067895, 2022b. a
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and
the Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,
93, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012. a
Tebaldi, C., Ranasinghe, R., Vousdoukas, M., Rasmussen, D. J., Vega-Westhoff,
B., Kirezci, E., Kopp, R. E., Sriver, R., and Mentaschi, L.: Extreme sea
levels at different global warming levels, Nat. Clim. Change, 11,
746–751, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01127-1, 2021. a
The World Bank: World Development Indicators, The World Bank [data set], https://doi.org/10.57966/6rwy-0b07, 2022. a, b
Tiggeloven, T., de Moel, H., Winsemius, H. C., Eilander, D., Erkens, G., Gebremedhin, E., Diaz Loaiza, A., Kuzma, S., Luo, T., Iceland, C., Bouwman, A., van Huijstee, J., Ligtvoet, W., and Ward, P. J.: Global-scale benefit–cost analysis of coastal flood adaptation to different flood risk drivers using structural measures, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1025–1044, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1025-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Tol, R. S. J.: The damage costs of climate change towards a dynamic
representation, Ecol. Econ., 19, 67–90,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0921-8009(96)00041-9, 1996. a, b
Tozer, B., Sandwell, D. T., Smith, W. H. F., Olson, C., Beale, J. R., and
Wessel, P.: Global Bathymetry and Topography at 15 Arc Sec:
SRTM15+, Earth Space Sci., 6, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000658,
2019. a, b
UN DESA, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, P. U. N.: World
Population Prospects 2012: Volume I: Comprehensive Tables, Tech.
rep.,
https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_Volume-I_Comprehensive-Tables.pdf (last access: 21 March 2023),
2012. a
UN DESA, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, P. U. N.: World
Population Prospects 2019: Volume I: Comprehensive Tables, Tech.
rep.,
https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_Volume-I_Comprehensive-Tables.pdf (last access: 21 March 2023),
2019.
a
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population
Division: World Population Prospects 2022, Online Edition, United Nations [data set],
https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/MostUsed/ (last access: 21 March 2023),
2022. a
von Krogh, G. and von Hippel, E.: The Promise of Research on Open
Source Software, Manage. Sci., 52, 975–983,
https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1060.0560, 2006. a
Vousdoukas, M. I., Voukouvalas, E., Mentaschi, L., Dottori, F., Giardino, A., Bouziotas, D., Bianchi, A., Salamon, P., and Feyen, L.: Developments in large-scale coastal flood hazard mapping, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1841–1853, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1841-2016, 2016. a
Wilkinson, M. D., Dumontier, M., Aalbersberg, I. J., Appleton, G., Axton, M.,
Baak, A., Blomberg, N., Boiten, J.-W., da Silva Santos, L. B., Bourne, P. E.,
Bouwman, J., Brookes, A. J., Clark, T., Crosas, M., Dillo, I., Dumon, O.,
Edmunds, S., Evelo, C. T., Finkers, R., Gonzalez-Beltran, A., Gray, A. J. G.,
Groth, P., Goble, C., Grethe, J. S., Heringa, J., ’t Hoen, P. A. C., Hooft,
R., Kuhn, T., Kok, R., Kok, J., Lusher, S. J., Martone, M. E., Mons, A.,
Packer, A. L., Persson, B., Rocca-Serra, P., Roos, M., van Schaik, R.,
Sansone, S.-A., Schultes, E., Sengstag, T., Slater, T., Strawn, G., Swertz,
M. A., Thompson, M., van der Lei, J., van Mulligen, E., Velterop, J.,
Waagmeester, A., Wittenburg, P., Wolstencroft, K., Zhao, J., and Mons, B.:
The FAIR Guiding Principles for scientific data management and
stewardship, Sci. Data, 3, 160018, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2016.18, 2016. a, b
Yohe, G. and Tol, R. S.: Indicators for social and economic coping capacity -
Moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity, Global
Environ. Change, 12, 25–40, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(01)00026-7, 2002. a
Yohe, G., Neumann, J., and Ameden, H.: Assessing the economic cost of
greenhouse-induced sea level rise: methods and application in support of a
national survey, J. Environ. Econ. Manag., 29,
S78–S97, 1995. a
Editorial statement
Sea level rise represents one of the most compelling aspects of anthropogenic climate change. The potential social and economic impacts are enormous, with little that can be done to mitigate them. It is therefore of critical importance that we are able to correctly anticipate these impacts in advance. This study presents a new, open-source platform that integrates numerical modelling with socioeconomic and physical datasets, whilst also allowing for the uncertainty in climate change projections. This tool therefore allows for new and improved estimates of the global costs of future sea level rise and is likely to be of widespread interest.
Sea level rise represents one of the most compelling aspects of anthropogenic climate change....
Short summary
This work presents a novel open-source modeling platform for evaluating future sea level rise (SLR) impacts. Using nearly 10 000 discrete coastline segments around the world, we estimate 21st-century costs for 230 SLR and socioeconomic scenarios. We find that annual end-of-century costs range from USD 100 billion under a 2 °C warming scenario with proactive adaptation to 7 trillion under a 4 °C warming scenario with minimal adaptation, illustrating the cost-effectiveness of coastal adaptation.
This work presents a novel open-source modeling platform for evaluating future sea level rise...
