Articles | Volume 16, issue 14
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
DSCIM-Coastal v1.1: an open-source modeling platform for global impacts of sea level rise
Global Policy Lab, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA
Jun Ho Choi
Kenneth C. Griffin Department of Economics, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
The Rhodium Group, Oakland, California, USA
National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
Kenneth C. Griffin Department of Economics, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
The Rhodium Group, Oakland, California, USA
BlackRock, San Francisco, California, USA
The Rhodium Group, Oakland, California, USA
Robert E. Kopp
Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences and Rutgers Institute of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA
Global Policy Lab, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA
National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
No articles found.
Robert E. Kopp, Gregory G. Garner, Tim H. J. Hermans, Shantenu Jha, Praveen Kumar, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Matteo Turilli, Tamsin L. Edwards, Jonathan M. Gregory, George Koubbe, Anders Levermann, Andre Merzky, Sophie Nowicki, Matthew D. Palmer, and Chris Smith
Future sea-level rise exhibits multiple forms of uncertainty, all of which must be considered by scientific assessments intended to inform decision making. The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) is a new software package intended to support assessments of global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level rise. An early version of FACTS supported the development of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report sea level projections.
Diana R. Gergel, Steven B. Malevich, Kelly E. McCusker, Emile Tenezakis, Michael T. Delgado, Meredith A. Fish, and Robert E. Kopp
The freely available Global Downscaled Projections for Climate Impacts Research (GDPCIR) dataset gives researchers a new tool for studying how future climate will evolve at a local or regional level, corresponding to the latest global climate model simulations prepared as part of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report. Those CMIP6 simulations represent an enormous advance in quality, detail, and scope that GDPCIR translates to the local level.
Erica L. Ashe, Nicole S. Khan, Lauren T. Toth, Andrea Dutton, and Robert E. Kopp
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 8, 1–29,Short summary
We develop a new technique to integrate realistic uncertainties in probabilistic models of past sea-level change. The new framework performs better than past methods (in precision, accuracy, bias, and model fit) because it enables the incorporation of previously unused data and exploits correlations in the data. This method has the potential to assess the validity of past estimates of extreme sea-level rise and highstands providing better context in which to place current sea-level change.
Eric Larour, Lambert Caron, Mathieu Morlighem, Surendra Adhikari, Thomas Frederikse, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Erik Ivins, Benjamin Hamlington, Robert Kopp, and Sophie Nowicki
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4925–4941,Short summary
ISSM-SLPS is a new projection system for future sea level that increases the resolution and accuracy of current projection systems and improves the way uncertainty is treated in such projections. This will pave the way for better inclusion of state-of-the-art results from existing intercomparison efforts carried out by the scientific community, such as GlacierMIP2 or ISMIP6, into sea-level projections.
André Düsterhus, Alessio Rovere, Anders E. Carlson, Benjamin P. Horton, Volker Klemann, Lev Tarasov, Natasha L. M. Barlow, Tom Bradwell, Jorie Clark, Andrea Dutton, W. Roland Gehrels, Fiona D. Hibbert, Marc P. Hijma, Nicole Khan, Robert E. Kopp, Dorit Sivan, and Torbjörn E. Törnqvist
Clim. Past, 12, 911–921,Short summary
This review/position paper addresses problems in creating new interdisciplinary databases for palaeo-climatological sea-level and ice-sheet data and gives an overview on new advances to tackle them. The focus therein is to define and explain strategies and highlight their importance to allow further progress in these fields. It also offers important insights into the general problem of designing competitive databases which are also applicable to other communities within the palaeo-environment.
Related subject area
Climate and Earth system modelingEarth System Model Aerosol–Cloud Diagnostics (ESMAC Diags) package, version 2: assessing aerosols, clouds, and aerosol–cloud interactions via field campaign and long-term observationsCIOFC1.0: a common parallel input/output framework based on C-Coupler2.0Overcoming computational challenges to realize meter- to submeter-scale resolution in cloud simulations using the super-droplet methodIntroducing a new floodplain scheme in ORCHIDEE (version 7885): validation and evaluation over the Pantanal wetlandsURock 2023a: an open-source GIS-based wind model for complex urban settingsDASH: a MATLAB toolbox for paleoclimate data assimilationComparing the Performance of Julia on CPUs versus GPUs and Julia-MPI versus Fortran-MPI: a case study with MPAS-Ocean (Version 7.1)All aboard! Earth system investigations with the CH2O-CHOO TRAIN v1.0The Canadian Atmospheric Model version 5 (CanAM5.0.3)The Teddy tool v1.1: temporal disaggregation of daily climate model data for climate impact analysisAssimilation of the AMSU-A radiances using the CESM (v2.1.0) and the DART (v9.11.13)–RTTOV (v12.3)Modernizing the open-source community Noah with multi-parameterization options (Noah-MP) land surface model (version 5.0) with enhanced modularity, interoperability, and applicabilitySimulated stable water isotopes during the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods using AWI-ESM-2.1-wisoRainbows and climate change: a tutorial on climate model diagnostics and parameterizationModE-Sim – a medium-sized atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ensemble to study climate variability during the modern era (1420 to 2009)MESMAR v1: a new regional coupled climate model for downscaling, predictability, and data assimilation studies in the Mediterranean regionClimate model Selection by Independence, Performance, and Spread (ClimSIPS v1.0.1) for regional applicationsIceTFT v1.0.0: interpretable long-term prediction of Arctic sea ice extent with deep learningThe KNMI Large Ensemble Time Slice (KNMI–LENTIS)ENSO statistics, teleconnections, and atmosphere–ocean coupling in the Taiwan Earth System Model version 1Using probabilistic machine learning to better model temporal patterns in parameterizations: a case study with the Lorenz 96 modelThe Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP)TIMBER v0.1: a conceptual framework for emulating temperature responses to tree cover changeRecalibration of a three-dimensional water quality model with a newly developed autocalibration toolkit (EFDC-ACT v1.0.0): how much improvement will be achieved with a wider hydrological variability?Description and evaluation of the JULES-ES set-up for ISIMIP2bSimplified Kalman smoother and ensemble Kalman smoother for improving reanalysesUnderstanding Changes in Cloud Simulations from E3SM Version 1 to Version 2Modelling the terrestrial nitrogen and phosphorus cycle in the UVic ESCMModeling river water temperature with limiting forcing data: Air2stream v1.0.0, machine learning and multiple regressionA machine learning approach targeting parameter estimation for plant functional type coexistence modeling using ELM-FATES (v2.0)Modeling and evaluating the effects of irrigation on land-atmosphere interaction in South-West Europe with the regional climate model REMO2020-iMOVE using a newly developed parameterizationThe fully coupled regionally refined model of E3SM version 2: overview of the atmosphere, land, and river resultsThe mixed-layer depth in the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP): impact of resolving mesoscale eddiesA new simplified parameterization of secondary organic aerosol in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2; CAM6.3)Deep learning for stochastic precipitation generation – deep SPG v1.0Developing spring wheat in the Noah-MP land surface model (v4.4) for growing season dynamics and responses to temperature stressRobust 4D climate-optimal flight planning in structured airspace using parallelized simulation on GPUs: ROOST V1.0The Earth system model CLIMBER-X v1.0 – Part 2: The global carbon cycleSMLFire1.0: a stochastic machine learning (SML) model for wildfire activity in the western United StatesLandInG 1.0: a toolbox to derive input datasets for terrestrial ecosystem modelling at variable resolutions from heterogeneous sourcesConservation of heat and mass in P-SKRIPS version 1: the coupled atmosphere–ice–ocean model of the Ross SeaPredicting the climate impact of aviation for en-route emissions: the algorithmic climate change function submodel ACCF 1.0 of EMAC 2.53Implementation of a machine-learned gas optics parameterization in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System: RRTMGP-NN 2.0Differentiable programming for Earth system modelingEvaluation of CMIP6 model performances in simulating fire weather spatiotemporal variability on global and regional scalesData-driven aeolian dust emission scheme for climate modelling evaluated with EMAC 2.55.2Testing the reconstruction of modelled particulate organic carbon from surface ecosystem components using PlankTOM12 and machine learningAn improved method of the Globally Resolved Energy Balance model by the Bayesian networksAssessing predicted cirrus ice properties between two deterministic ice formation parameterizationsVarious ways of using empirical orthogonal functions for climate model evaluation
Shuaiqi Tang, Adam C. Varble, Jerome D. Fast, Kai Zhang, Peng Wu, Xiquan Dong, Fan Mei, Mikhail Pekour, Joseph C. Hardin, and Po-Lun Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6355–6376,Short summary
To assess the ability of Earth system model (ESM) predictions, we developed a tool called ESMAC Diags to understand how aerosols, clouds, and aerosol–cloud interactions are represented in ESMs. This paper describes its version 2 functionality. We compared the model predictions with measurements taken by planes, ships, satellites, and ground instruments over four regions across the world. Results show that this new tool can help identify model problems and guide future development of ESMs.
Xinzhu Yu, Li Liu, Chao Sun, Qingu Jiang, Biao Zhao, Zhiyuan Zhang, Hao Yu, and Bin Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6285–6308,Short summary
In this paper we propose a new common, flexible, and efficient parallel I/O framework for earth system modeling based on C-Coupler2.0. CIOFC1.0 can handle data I/O in parallel and provides a configuration file format that enables users to conveniently change the I/O configurations. It can automatically make grid and time interpolation, output data with an aperiodic time series, and accelerate data I/O when the field size is large.
Toshiki Matsushima, Seiya Nishizawa, and Shin-ichiro Shima
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6211–6245,Short summary
A particle-based cloud model was developed for meter- to submeter-scale resolution in cloud simulations. Our new cloud model's computational performance is superior to a bin method and comparable to a two-moment bulk method. A highlight of this study is the 2 m resolution shallow cloud simulations over an area covering ∼10 km2. This model allows for studying turbulence and cloud physics at spatial scales that overlap with those covered by direct numerical simulations and field studies.
Anthony Schrapffer, Jan Polcher, Anna Sörensson, and Lluís Fita
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5755–5782,Short summary
The present paper introduces a floodplain scheme for a high-resolution land surface model river routing. It was developed and evaluated over one of the world’s largest floodplains: the Pantanal in South America. This shows the impact of tropical floodplains on land surface conditions (soil moisture, temperature) and on land–atmosphere fluxes and highlights the potential impact of floodplains on land–atmosphere interactions and the importance of integrating this module in coupled simulations.
Jérémy Bernard, Fredrik Lindberg, and Sandro Oswald
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5703–5727,Short summary
The UMEP plug-in integrated in the free QGIS software can now calculate the spatial variation of the wind speed within urban settings. This paper shows that the new wind model, URock, generally fits observations well and highlights the main needed improvements. According to this work, pedestrian wind fields and outdoor thermal comfort can now simply be estimated by any QGIS user (researchers, students, and practitioners).
Jonathan King, Jessica Tierney, Matthew Osman, Emily J. Judd, and Kevin J. Anchukaitis
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5653–5683,Short summary
Paleoclimate data assimilation is a useful method that allows researchers to combine climate models with natural archives of past climates. However, it can be difficult to implement in practice. To facilitate this method, we present DASH, a MATLAB toolbox. The toolbox provides routines that implement common steps of paleoclimate data assimilation, and it can be used to implement assimilations for a wide variety of time periods, spatial regions, data networks, and analytical algorithms.
Siddhartha Bishnu, Robert R. Strauss, and Mark R. Petersen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5539–5559,Short summary
Here we test Julia, a relatively new programming language, which is designed to be simple to write, but also fast on advanced computer architectures. We found that Julia is both convenient and fast, but there is no free lunch. Our first attempt to develop an ocean model in Julia was relatively easy, but the code was slow. After several months of further development, we created a Julia code that is as fast on supercomputers as a Fortran ocean model.
Tyler Kukla, Daniel E. Ibarra, Kimberly V. Lau, and Jeremy K. C. Rugenstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5515–5538,Short summary
The CH2O-CHOO TRAIN model can simulate how climate and the long-term carbon cycle interact across millions of years on a standard PC. While efficient, the model accounts for many factors including the location of land masses, the spatial pattern of the water cycle, and fundamental climate feedbacks. The model is a powerful tool for investigating how short-term climate processes can affect long-term changes in the Earth system.
Jason Neil Steven Cole, Knut von Salzen, Jiangnan Li, John Scinocca, David Plummer, Vivek Arora, Norman McFarlane, Michael Lazare, Murray MacKay, and Diana Verseghy
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5427–5448,Short summary
The Canadian Atmospheric Model version 5 (CanAM5) is used to simulate on a global scale the climate of Earth's atmosphere, land, and lakes. We document changes to the physics in CanAM5 since the last major version of the model (CanAM4) and evaluate the climate simulated relative to observations and CanAM4. The climate simulated by CanAM5 is similar to CanAM4, but there are improvements, including better simulation of temperature and precipitation over the Amazon and better simulation of cloud.
Florian Zabel and Benjamin Poschlod
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5383–5399,Short summary
Today, most climate model data are provided at daily time steps. However, more and more models from different sectors, such as energy, water, agriculture, and health, require climate information at a sub-daily temporal resolution for a more robust and reliable climate impact assessment. Here we describe and validate the Teddy tool, a new model for the temporal disaggregation of daily climate model data for climate impact analysis.
Young-Chan Noh, Yonghan Choi, Hyo-Jong Song, Kevin Raeder, Joo-Hong Kim, and Youngchae Kwon
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5365–5382,Short summary
This is the first attempt to assimilate the observations of microwave temperature sounders into the global climate forecast model in which the satellite observations have not been assimilated in the past. To do this, preprocessing schemes are developed to make the satellite observations suitable to be assimilated. In the assimilation experiments, the model analysis is significantly improved by assimilating the observations of microwave temperature sounders.
Cenlin He, Prasanth Valayamkunnath, Michael Barlage, Fei Chen, David Gochis, Ryan Cabell, Tim Schneider, Roy Rasmussen, Guo-Yue Niu, Zong-Liang Yang, Dev Niyogi, and Michael Ek
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5131–5151,Short summary
Noah-MP is one of the most widely used open-source community land surface models in the world, designed for applications ranging from uncoupled land surface and ecohydrological process studies to coupled numerical weather prediction and decadal climate simulations. To facilitate model developments and applications, we modernize Noah-MP by adopting modern Fortran code and data structures and standards, which substantially enhance model modularity, interoperability, and applicability.
Xiaoxu Shi, Alexandre Cauquoin, Gerrit Lohmann, Lukas Jonkers, Qiang Wang, Hu Yang, Yuchen Sun, and Martin Werner
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5153–5178,Short summary
We developed a new climate model with isotopic capabilities and simulated the pre-industrial and mid-Holocene periods. Despite certain regional model biases, the modeled isotope composition is in good agreement with observations and reconstructions. Based on our analyses, the observed isotope–temperature relationship in polar regions may have a summertime bias. Using daily model outputs, we developed a novel isotope-based approach to determine the onset date of the West African summer monsoon.
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4937–4956,Short summary
A representation of rainbows is developed for a climate model. The diagnostic raises many common issues. Simulated rainbows are evaluated against limited observations. The pattern of rainbows in the model matches observations and theory about when and where rainbows are most common. The diagnostic is used to assess the past and future state of rainbows. Changes to clouds from climate change are expected to increase rainbows as cloud cover decreases in a warmer world.
Ralf Hand, Eric Samakinwa, Laura Lipfert, and Stefan Brönnimann
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4853–4866,Short summary
ModE-Sim is an ensemble of simulations with an atmosphere model. It uses observed sea surface temperatures, sea ice conditions, and volcanic aerosols for 1420 to 2009 as model input while accounting for uncertainties in these conditions. This generates several representations of the possible climate given these preconditions. Such a setup can be useful to understand the mechanisms that contribute to climate variability. This paper describes the setup of ModE-Sim and evaluates its performance.
Andrea Storto, Yassmin Hesham Essa, Vincenzo de Toma, Alessandro Anav, Gianmaria Sannino, Rosalia Santoleri, and Chunxue Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4811–4833,Short summary
Regional climate models are a fundamental tool for a very large number of applications and are being increasingly used within climate services, together with other complementary approaches. Here, we introduce a new regional coupled model, intended to be later extended to a full Earth system model, for climate investigations within the Mediterranean region, coupled data assimilation experiments, and several downscaling exercises (reanalyses and long-range predictions).
Anna L. Merrifield, Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Vincent Humphrey, and Reto Knutti
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4715–4747,Short summary
Using all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models is unfeasible for many applications. We provide a subselection protocol that balances user needs for model independence, performance, and spread capturing CMIP’s projection uncertainty simultaneously. We show how sets of three to five models selected for European applications map to user priorities. An audit of model independence and its influence on equilibrium climate sensitivity uncertainty in CMIP is also presented.
Bin Mu, Xiaodan Luo, Shijin Yuan, and Xi Liang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4677–4697,Short summary
To improve the long-term forecast skill for sea ice extent (SIE), we introduce IceTFT, which directly predicts 12 months of averaged Arctic SIE. The results show that IceTFT has higher forecasting skill. We conducted a sensitivity analysis of the variables in the IceTFT model. These sensitivities can help researchers study the mechanisms of sea ice development, and they also provide useful references for the selection of variables in data assimilation or the input of deep learning models.
Laura Muntjewerf, Richard Bintanja, Thomas Reerink, and Karin van der Wiel
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4581–4597,Short summary
The KNMI Large Ensemble Time Slice (KNMI–LENTIS) is a large ensemble of global climate model simulations with EC-Earth3. It covers two climate scenarios by focusing on two time slices: the present day (2000–2009) and a future +2 K climate (2075–2084 in the SSP2-4.5 scenario). We have 1600 simulated years for the two climates with (sub-)daily output frequency. The sampled climate variability allows for robust and in-depth research into (compound) extreme events such as heat waves and droughts.
Yi-Chi Wang, Wan-Ling Tseng, Yu-Luen Chen, Shih-Yu Lee, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, and Hsin-Chien Liang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4599–4616,Short summary
This study focuses on evaluating the performance of the Taiwan Earth System Model version 1 (TaiESM1) in simulating the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a significant tropical climate pattern with global impacts. Our findings reveal that TaiESM1 effectively captures several characteristics of ENSO, such as its seasonal variation and remote teleconnections. Its pronounced ENSO strength bias is also thoroughly investigated, aiming to gain insights to improve climate model performance.
Raghul Parthipan, Hannah M. Christensen, J. Scott Hosking, and Damon J. Wischik
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4501–4519,Short summary
How can we create better climate models? We tackle this by proposing a data-driven successor to the existing approach for capturing key temporal trends in climate models. We combine probability, allowing us to represent uncertainty, with machine learning, a technique to learn relationships from data which are undiscoverable to humans. Our model is often superior to existing baselines when tested in a simple atmospheric simulation.
Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Bjørn H. Samset, Massimo A. Bollasina, Paul T. Griffiths, James Keeble, Marianne T. Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Declan O'Donnell, David J. Paynter, Geeta G. Persad, Steven T. Rumbold, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Sabine Undorf, and Daniel M. Westervelt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4451–4479,Short summary
Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional climate change. However, the size of these regional impacts and the way they arise are still uncertain. With large changes in aerosol emissions a possibility over the next few decades, it is important to better quantify the potential role of aerosol in future regional climate change. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project will deliver experiments designed to facilitate this.
Shruti Nath, Lukas Gudmundsson, Jonas Schwaab, Gregory Duveiller, Steven J. De Hertog, Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Carl F. Schleussner, Wim Thiery, and Quentin Lejeune
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4283–4313,Short summary
Tree cover changes play a significant role in climate mitigation and adaptation. Their regional impacts are key in informing national-level decisions and prioritising areas for conservation efforts. We present a first step towards exploring these regional impacts using a simple statistical device, i.e. emulator. The emulator only needs to train on climate model outputs representing the maximal impacts of aff-, re-, and deforestation, from which it explores plausible in-between outcomes itself.
Chen Zhang and Tianyu Fu
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4315–4329,Short summary
A new automatic calibration toolkit was developed and implemented into the recalibration of a 3-D water quality model, with observations in a wider range of hydrological variability. Compared to the model calibrated with the original strategy, the recalibrated model performed significantly better in modeled total phosphorus, chlorophyll a, and dissolved oxygen. Our work indicates that hydrological variability in the calibration periods has a non-negligible impact on the water quality models.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor Burke, Andrew J. Hartley, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle Burton, Eddy Robertson, Nicola Gedney, Karina Williams, Andy Wiltshire, Richard J. Ellis, Alistair A. Sellar, and Chris D. Jones
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4249–4264,Short summary
This paper describes and evaluates a new modelling methodology to quantify the impacts of climate change on water, biomes and the carbon cycle. We have created a new configuration and set-up for the JULES-ES land surface model, driven by bias-corrected historical and future climate model output provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). This allows us to compare projections of the impacts of climate change across multiple impact models and multiple sectors.
Bo Dong, Ross Bannister, Yumeng Chen, Alison Fowler, and Keith Haines
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4233–4247,Short summary
Traditional Kalman smoothers are expensive to apply in large global ocean operational forecast and reanalysis systems. We develop a cost-efficient method to overcome the technical constraints and to improve the performance of existing reanalysis products.
Yuying Zhang, Shaocheng Xie, Yi Qin, Wuyin Lin, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Xue Zheng, Po-Lun Ma, Yun Qian, Qi Tang, Christopher R. Terai, and Meng Zhang
We performed systematic evaluation of clouds simulated in the E3SMv2 to document model performance on clouds and understand what updates in E3SMv2 have caused the changes in clouds from E3SMv1 to E3SMv2. We find that stratocumulus clouds along the subtropical west coast of continents are dramatically improved primarily due to the re-tuning of cloud macrophysics parameters. This study offers additional insights about clouds simulated in E3SMv2 and will benefit the future E3SM developments.
Makcim L. De Sisto, Andrew H. MacDougall, Nadine Mengis, and Sophia Antoniello
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4113–4136,Short summary
In this study, we developed a nitrogen and phosphorus cycle in an intermediate-complexity Earth system climate model. We found that the implementation of nutrient limitation in simulations has reduced the capacity of land to take up atmospheric carbon and has decreased the vegetation biomass, hence, improving the fidelity of the response of land to simulated atmospheric CO2 rise.
Manuel C. Almeida and Pedro S. Coelho
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4083–4112,Short summary
Water temperature (WT) datasets of low-order rivers are scarce. In this study, five different models are used to predict the WT of 83 rivers. Generally, the results show that the models' hyperparameter optimization is essential and that to minimize the prediction error it is relevant to apply all the models considered in this study. Results also show that there is a logarithmic correlation among the error of the predicted river WT and the watershed time of concentration.
Lingcheng Li, Yilin Fang, Zhonghua Zheng, Mingjie Shi, Marcos Longo, Charles D. Koven, Jennifer A. Holm, Rosie A. Fisher, Nate G. McDowell, Jeffrey Chambers, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4017–4040,Short summary
Accurately modeling plant coexistence in vegetation demographic models like ELM-FATES is challenging. This study proposes a repeatable method that uses machine-learning-based surrogate models to optimize plant trait parameters in ELM-FATES. Our approach significantly improves plant coexistence modeling, thus reducing errors. It has important implications for modeling ecosystem dynamics in response to climate change.
Christina Asmus, Peter Hoffmann, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Jürgen Böhner, and Diana Rechid
Irrigation modifies the land surface and soil conditions. The caused effects can be quantified using numerical climate models. Our study introduces a new irrigation parameterization, which is simulating the effects of irrigation on land, atmosphere, and vegetation. We applied the parameterization and evaluated the results in their physical consistency. We found an improvement in the model results in the 2 m temperature representation in comparison with observational data for our study.
Qi Tang, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Luke P. Van Roekel, Mark A. Taylor, Wuyin Lin, Benjamin R. Hillman, Paul A. Ullrich, Andrew M. Bradley, Oksana Guba, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Tian Zhou, Kai Zhang, Xue Zheng, Yunyan Zhang, Meng Zhang, Mingxuan Wu, Hailong Wang, Cheng Tao, Balwinder Singh, Alan M. Rhoades, Yi Qin, Hong-Yi Li, Yan Feng, Yuying Zhang, Chengzhu Zhang, Charles S. Zender, Shaocheng Xie, Erika L. Roesler, Andrew F. Roberts, Azamat Mametjanov, Mathew E. Maltrud, Noel D. Keen, Robert L. Jacob, Christiane Jablonowski, Owen K. Hughes, Ryan M. Forsyth, Alan V. Di Vittorio, Peter M. Caldwell, Gautam Bisht, Renata B. McCoy, L. Ruby Leung, and David C. Bader
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3953–3995,Short summary
High-resolution simulations are superior to low-resolution ones in capturing regional climate changes and climate extremes. However, uniformly reducing the grid size of a global Earth system model is too computationally expensive. We provide an overview of the fully coupled regionally refined model (RRM) of E3SMv2 and document a first-of-its-kind set of climate production simulations using RRM at an economic cost. The key to this success is our innovative hybrid time step method.
Anne Marie Treguier, Clement de Boyer Montégut, Alexandra Bozec, Eric P. Chassignet, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Andy McC. Hogg, Doroteaciro Iovino, Andrew E. Kiss, Julien Le Sommer, Yiwen Li, Pengfei Lin, Camille Lique, Hailong Liu, Guillaume Serazin, Dmitry Sidorenko, Qiang Wang, Xiaobio Xu, and Steve Yeager
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3849–3872,Short summary
The ocean mixed layer is the interface between the ocean interior and the atmosphere and plays a key role in climate variability. We evaluate the performance of the new generation of ocean models for climate studies, designed to resolve
ocean eddies, which are the largest source of ocean variability and modulate the mixed-layer properties. We find that the mixed-layer depth is better represented in eddy-rich models but, unfortunately, not uniformly across the globe and not in all models.
Duseong S. Jo, Simone Tilmes, Louisa K. Emmons, Siyuan Wang, and Francis Vitt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3893–3906,Short summary
A new simple secondary organic aerosol (SOA) scheme has been developed for the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) based on the complex SOA scheme in CAM with detailed chemistry (CAM-chem). The CAM with the new SOA scheme shows better agreements with CAM-chem in terms of aerosol concentrations and radiative fluxes, which ensures more consistent results between different compsets in the Community Earth System Model. The new SOA scheme also has technical advantages for future developments.
Leroy J. Bird, Matthew G. W. Walker, Greg E. Bodeker, Isaac H. Campbell, Guangzhong Liu, Swapna Josmi Sam, Jared Lewis, and Suzanne M. Rosier
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3785–3808,Short summary
Deriving the statistics of expected future changes in extreme precipitation is challenging due to these events being rare. Regional climate models (RCMs) are computationally prohibitive for generating ensembles capable of capturing large numbers of extreme precipitation events with statistical robustness. Stochastic precipitation generators (SPGs) provide an alternative to RCMs. We describe a novel single-site SPG that learns the statistics of precipitation using a machine-learning approach.
Zhe Zhang, Yanping Li, Fei Chen, Phillip Harder, Warren Helgason, James Famiglietti, Prasanth Valayamkunnath, Cenlin He, and Zhenhua Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3809–3825,Short summary
Crop models incorporated in Earth system models are essential to accurately simulate crop growth processes on Earth's surface and agricultural production. In this study, we aim to model the spring wheat in the Northern Great Plains, focusing on three aspects: (1) develop the wheat model at a point scale, (2) apply dynamic planting and harvest schedules, and (3) adopt a revised heat stress function. The results show substantial improvements and have great importance for agricultural production.
Abolfazl Simorgh, Manuel Soler, Daniel González-Arribas, Florian Linke, Benjamin Lührs, Maximilian M. Meuser, Simone Dietmüller, Sigrun Matthes, Hiroshi Yamashita, Feijia Yin, Federica Castino, Volker Grewe, and Sabine Baumann
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3723–3748,Short summary
This paper addresses the robust climate optimal trajectory planning problem under uncertain meteorological conditions within the structured airspace. Based on the optimization methodology, a Python library has been developed, which can be accessed using the following DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7121862. The developed tool is capable of providing robust trajectories taking into account all probable realizations of meteorological conditions provided by an EPS computationally very fast.
Matteo Willeit, Tatiana Ilyina, Bo Liu, Christoph Heinze, Mahé Perrette, Malte Heinemann, Daniela Dalmonech, Victor Brovkin, Guy Munhoven, Janine Börker, Jens Hartmann, Gibran Romero-Mujalli, and Andrey Ganopolski
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3501–3534,Short summary
In this paper we present the carbon cycle component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. The model can be run with interactive atmospheric CO2 to investigate the feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle on temporal scales ranging from decades to > 100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate–carbon cycle changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the Earth system.
Jatan Buch, A. Park Williams, Caroline S. Juang, Winslow D. Hansen, and Pierre Gentine
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3407–3433,Short summary
We leverage machine learning techniques to construct a statistical model of grid-scale fire frequencies and sizes using climate, vegetation, and human predictors. Our model reproduces the observed trends in fire activity across multiple regions and timescales. We provide uncertainty estimates to inform resource allocation plans for fuel treatment and fire management. Altogether the accuracy and efficiency of our model make it ideal for coupled use with large-scale dynamical vegetation models.
Sebastian Ostberg, Christoph Müller, Jens Heinke, and Sibyll Schaphoff
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3375–3406,Short summary
We present a new toolbox for generating input datasets for terrestrial ecosystem models from diverse and partially conflicting data sources. The toolbox documents the sources and processing of data and is designed to make inconsistencies between source datasets transparent so that users can make their own decisions on how to resolve these should they not be content with our default assumptions. As an example, we use the toolbox to create input datasets at two different spatial resolutions.
Alena Malyarenko, Alexandra Gossart, Rui Sun, and Mario Krapp
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3355–3373,Short summary
Simultaneous modelling of ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere in coupled models is critical for understanding all of the processes that happen in the Antarctic. Here we have developed a coupled model for the Ross Sea, P-SKRIPS, that conserves heat and mass between the ocean and sea ice model (MITgcm) and the atmosphere model (PWRF). We have shown that our developments reduce the model drift, which is important for long-term simulations. P-SKRIPS shows good results in modelling coastal polynyas.
Feijia Yin, Volker Grewe, Federica Castino, Pratik Rao, Sigrun Matthes, Katrin Dahlmann, Simone Dietmüller, Christine Frömming, Hiroshi Yamashita, Patrick Peter, Emma Klingaman, Keith P. Shine, Benjamin Lührs, and Florian Linke
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3313–3334,Short summary
This paper describes a newly developed submodel ACCF V1.0 based on the MESSy 2.53.0 infrastructure. The ACCF V1.0 is based on the prototype algorithmic climate change functions (aCCFs) v1.0 to enable climate-optimized flight trajectories. One highlight of this paper is that we describe a consistent full set of aCCFs formulas with respect to fuel scenario and metrics. We demonstrate the usage of the ACCF submodel using AirTraf V2.0 to optimize trajectories for cost and climate impact.
Peter Ukkonen and Robin J. Hogan
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3241–3261,Short summary
Climate and weather models suffer from uncertainties resulting from approximated processes. Solar and thermal radiation is one example, as it is computationally too costly to simulate precisely. This has led to attempts to replace radiation codes based on physical equations with neural networks (NNs) that are faster but uncertain. In this paper we use global weather simulations to demonstrate that a middle-ground approach of using NNs only to predict optical properties is accurate and reliable.
Maximilian Gelbrecht, Alistair White, Sebastian Bathiany, and Niklas Boers
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3123–3135,Short summary
Differential programming is a technique that enables the automatic computation of derivatives of the output of models with respect to model parameters. Applying these techniques to Earth system modeling leverages the increasing availability of high-quality data to improve the models themselves. This can be done by either using calibration techniques that use gradient-based optimization or incorporating machine learning methods that can learn previously unresolved influences directly from data.
Carolina Gallo, Jonathan M. Eden, Bastien Dieppois, Igor Drobyshev, Peter Z. Fulé, Jesús San-Miguel-Ayanz, and Matthew Blackett
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3103–3122,Short summary
This study conducts the first global evaluation of the latest generation of global climate models to simulate a set of fire weather indicators from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System. Models are shown to perform relatively strongly at the global scale, but they show substantial regional and seasonal differences. The results demonstrate the value of model evaluation and selection in producing reliable fire danger projections, ultimately to support decision-making and forest management.
Klaus Klingmüller and Jos Lelieveld
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3013–3028,Short summary
Desert dust has significant impacts on climate, public health, infrastructure and ecosystems. An impact assessment requires numerical predictions, which are challenging because the dust emissions are not well known. We present a novel approach using satellite observations and machine learning to more accurately estimate the emissions and to improve the model simulations.
Anna Denvil-Sommer, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Rainer Kiko, Fabien Lombard, Lionel Guidi, and Corinne Le Quéré
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2995–3012,Short summary
Using outputs of global biogeochemical ocean model and machine learning methods, we demonstrate that it will be possible to identify linkages between surface environmental and ecosystem structure and the export of carbon to depth by sinking organic particles using real observations. It will be possible to use this knowledge to improve both our understanding of ecosystem dynamics and of their functional representation within models.
Zhenxia Liu, Zengjie Wang, Jian Wang, Zhengfang Zhang, Dongshuang Li, Zhaoyuan Yu, Linwang Yuan, and Wen Luo
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2939–2955,Short summary
This study introduces an improved method of the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) model by the Bayesian network. The improved method constructs a coarse–fine structure that combines a dynamical model with a statistical model based on employing the GREB model as the global framework and utilizing Bayesian networks as the local optimization. The results show that the improved model has better applicability and stability on a global scale and maintains good robustness on the timescale.
Colin Tully, David Neubauer, and Ulrike Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2957–2973,Short summary
A new method to simulate deterministic ice nucleation processes based on the differential activated fraction was evaluated against a cumulative approach. Box model simulations of heterogeneous-only ice nucleation within cirrus suggest that the latter approach likely underpredicts the ice crystal number concentration. Longer simulations with a GCM show that choosing between these two approaches impacts ice nucleation competition within cirrus but leads to small and insignificant climate effects.
Rasmus E. Benestad, Abdelkader Mezghani, Julia Lutz, Andreas Dobler, Kajsa M. Parding, and Oskar A. Landgren
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2899–2913,Short summary
A mathematical method known as common EOFs is not widely used within the climate research community, but it offers innovative ways of evaluating climate models. We show how common EOFs can be used to evaluate large ensembles of global climate model simulations and distill information about their ability to reproduce salient features of the regional climate. We can say that they represent a kind of machine learning (ML) for dealing with big data.
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Sea level rise represents one of the most compelling aspects of anthropogenic climate change. The potential social and economic impacts are enormous, with little that can be done to mitigate them. It is therefore of critical importance that we are able to correctly anticipate these impacts in advance. This study presents a new, open-source platform that integrates numerical modelling with socioeconomic and physical datasets, whilst also allowing for the uncertainty in climate change projections. This tool therefore allows for new and improved estimates of the global costs of future sea level rise and is likely to be of widespread interest.
Sea level rise represents one of the most compelling aspects of anthropogenic climate change....
This work presents a novel open-source modeling platform for evaluating future sea level rise (SLR) impacts. Using nearly 10 000 discrete coastline segments around the world, we estimate 21st-century costs for 230 SLR and socioeconomic scenarios. We find that annual end-of-century costs range from USD 100 billion under a 2 °C warming scenario with proactive adaptation to 7 trillion under a 4 °C warming scenario with minimal adaptation, illustrating the cost-effectiveness of coastal adaptation.
This work presents a novel open-source modeling platform for evaluating future sea level rise...