Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-251-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-251-2023
Development and technical paper
 | 
10 Jan 2023
Development and technical paper |  | 10 Jan 2023

Adapting a deep convolutional RNN model with imbalanced regression loss for improved spatio-temporal forecasting of extreme wind speed events in the short to medium range

Daan R. Scheepens, Irene Schicker, Kateřina Hlaváčková-Schindler, and Claudia Plant

Data sets

ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1979 to present H. Hersbach, B. Bell, P. Berrisford, G. Biavati, A. Horányi, J. Muñoz Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, I. Rozum, D., Schepers, A. Simmons, C. Soci, D. Dee, and T.-N. Thépaut https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6

Model code and software

Deep-RNN-for-extreme-wind-speed-prediction Daan R. Scheepens https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7369015

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Short summary
The production of wind energy is increasing rapidly and relies heavily on atmospheric conditions. To ensure power grid stability, accurate predictions of wind speed are needed, especially in the short range and for extreme wind speed ranges. In this work, we demonstrate the forecasting skills of a data-driven deep learning model with model adaptations to suit higher wind speed ranges. The resulting model can be applied to other data and parameters, too, to improve nowcasting predictions.