Articles | Volume 16, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1083-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1083-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
10 Feb 2023
Development and technical paper |
| 10 Feb 2023
| 10 Feb 2023
Optimization of weather forecasting for cloud cover over the European domain using the meteorological component of the Ensemble for Stochastic Integration of Atmospheric Simulations version 1.0
Institute of Energy and Climate Research – Troposphere (IEK-8), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, 52425 Jülich, Germany
Jülich Supercomputing Centre, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, 52425 Jülich, Germany
Garrett H. Good
Energy Meteorology Information Systems, Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Economics and Energy System Technology IEE, Kassel, Germany
Hendrik Elbern
Rhenish Institute for Environmental Research, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
Related authors
Tamara Emmerichs, Yen-Sen Lu, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Biogeosciences, 21, 3251–3269, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3251-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3251-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the representation of the plant response to surface water in a global atmospheric chemistry model. This sensitivity is crucial for the return of precipitation back into the atmosphere and thus significantly impacts the representation of weather as well as air quality. The newly implemented response function reduces this process and has a better comparison with satellite observations. This yields a higher intensity of unusual warm periods and higher production of air pollutants.
Tamara Emmerichs, Yen-Sen Lu, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Biogeosciences, 21, 3251–3269, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3251-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3251-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the representation of the plant response to surface water in a global atmospheric chemistry model. This sensitivity is crucial for the return of precipitation back into the atmosphere and thus significantly impacts the representation of weather as well as air quality. The newly implemented response function reduces this process and has a better comparison with satellite observations. This yields a higher intensity of unusual warm periods and higher production of air pollutants.
Philipp Franke, Anne Caroline Lange, and Hendrik Elbern
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1037–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1037-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1037-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The paper proposes an ensemble-based analysis framework (ESIAS-chem) for time- and altitude-resolved volcanic ash emission fluxes and their uncertainty. The core of the algorithm is an ensemble Nelder–Mead optimization algorithm accompanied by a particle filter update. The performed notional experiments demonstrate the high accuracy of ESIAS-chem in analyzing the vertically resolved volcanic ash in the atmosphere. Further, the system is in general able to estimate the emission fluxes properly.
Annika Vogel and Hendrik Elbern
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5583–5605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5583-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5583-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
While atmospheric chemical forecasts rely on uncertain model parameters, their huge dimensions hamper an efficient uncertainty estimation. This study presents a novel approach to efficiently sample these uncertainties by extracting dominant dependencies and correlations. Applying the algorithm to biogenic emissions, their uncertainties can be estimated from a low number of dominant components. This states the capability of an efficient treatment of parameter uncertainties in atmospheric models.
Annika Vogel and Hendrik Elbern
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4039–4057, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4039-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4039-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts of biogenic trace gases highly depend on the model setup and input fields. This study identifies sources of related forecast uncertainties for biogenic gases. Exceptionally high differences in both biogenic emissions and pollutant transport in the Po Valley are identified to be caused by the representation of the land surface and boundary layer dynamics. Consequently, changes in the model configuration are shown to induce significantly different local concentrations of biogenic gases.
Mikhail Sofiev, Olga Ritenberga, Roberto Albertini, Joaquim Arteta, Jordina Belmonte, Carmi Geller Bernstein, Maira Bonini, Sevcan Celenk, Athanasios Damialis, John Douros, Hendrik Elbern, Elmar Friese, Carmen Galan, Gilles Oliver, Ivana Hrga, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Kai Krajsek, Donat Magyar, Jonathan Parmentier, Matthieu Plu, Marje Prank, Lennart Robertson, Birthe Marie Steensen, Michel Thibaudon, Arjo Segers, Barbara Stepanovich, Alvaro M. Valdebenito, Julius Vira, and Despoina Vokou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12341–12360, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12341-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12341-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents the features and evaluates the quality of the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service forecasts of olive pollen distribution in Europe. It is shown that the models can predict the main features of the observed pollen distribution but have more difficulties in capturing the season start and end, which appeared shifted by a few days. We also demonstrated that the combined use of model predictions with up-to-date measurements (data fusion) can strongly improve the results.
Annika Vogel, Jörn Ungermann, and Hendrik Elbern
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-308, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-308, 2017
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
The potential for chemical state analysis at tropopause heights was investigated by combining airborne tomographic observations with a chemical data-assimilation system in form of a case study. Related developments include the use of potential vorticity for ozone initialization and flow-dependent horizontal correlations. This setup demonstrated substantial improvements in terms of spatial extend and alignment of atmospheric structures down to filamentary foldings along airmass boundaries.
Johannes Klimpt, Elmar Friese, and Hendrik Elbern
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-132, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric inversions optimize surface-atmosphere CO2 fluxes using CO2 concentration observations and atmospheric transport models. This study optimizes additionally the atmospheric initial concentration of CO2 jointly with the fluxes. Artificial generated observations are used to estimate limits and benefits of the used inversion method.
Uncertainty of analyzed CO2 fluxes can be reduced with the joint optimization of fluxes and the atmospheric CO2 concentration.
N. Goris and H. Elbern
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3929–3945, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3929-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3929-2015, 2015
V. Marécal, V.-H. Peuch, C. Andersson, S. Andersson, J. Arteta, M. Beekmann, A. Benedictow, R. Bergström, B. Bessagnet, A. Cansado, F. Chéroux, A. Colette, A. Coman, R. L. Curier, H. A. C. Denier van der Gon, A. Drouin, H. Elbern, E. Emili, R. J. Engelen, H. J. Eskes, G. Foret, E. Friese, M. Gauss, C. Giannaros, J. Guth, M. Joly, E. Jaumouillé, B. Josse, N. Kadygrov, J. W. Kaiser, K. Krajsek, J. Kuenen, U. Kumar, N. Liora, E. Lopez, L. Malherbe, I. Martinez, D. Melas, F. Meleux, L. Menut, P. Moinat, T. Morales, J. Parmentier, A. Piacentini, M. Plu, A. Poupkou, S. Queguiner, L. Robertson, L. Rouïl, M. Schaap, A. Segers, M. Sofiev, L. Tarasson, M. Thomas, R. Timmermans, Á. Valdebenito, P. van Velthoven, R. van Versendaal, J. Vira, and A. Ung
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2777–2813, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2777-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2777-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the air quality forecasting system over Europe put in place in the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate projects. It provides daily and 4-day forecasts and analyses for the previous day for major gas and particulate pollutants and their main precursors. These products are based on a multi-model approach using seven state-of-the-art models developed in Europe. An evaluation of the performance of the system is discussed in the paper.
M. Sofiev, U. Berger, M. Prank, J. Vira, J. Arteta, J. Belmonte, K.-C. Bergmann, F. Chéroux, H. Elbern, E. Friese, C. Galan, R. Gehrig, D. Khvorostyanov, R. Kranenburg, U. Kumar, V. Marécal, F. Meleux, L. Menut, A.-M. Pessi, L. Robertson, O. Ritenberga, V. Rodinkova, A. Saarto, A. Segers, E. Severova, I. Sauliene, P. Siljamo, B. M. Steensen, E. Teinemaa, M. Thibaudon, and V.-H. Peuch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8115–8130, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8115-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8115-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment for forecasting the atmospheric dispersion of birch pollen in Europe. The study included 7 models of MACC-ENS tested over the season of 2010 and applied for 2013 in forecasting and reanalysis modes. The results were compared with observations in 11 countries, members of European Aeroallergen Network. The models successfully reproduced the timing of the unusually late season of 2013 but had more difficulties with absolute concentration.
C. M. Hoppe, H. Elbern, and J. Schwinger
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1025–1036, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1025-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1025-2014, 2014
Y. P. Li, H. Elbern, K. D. Lu, E. Friese, A. Kiendler-Scharr, Th. F. Mentel, X. S. Wang, A. Wahner, and Y. H. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6289–6304, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6289-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6289-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric sciences
Exploring the footprint representation of microwave radiance observations in an Arctic limited-area data assimilation system
Analysis of model error in forecast errors of extended atmospheric Lorenz 05 systems and the ECMWF system
Description and validation of Vehicular Emissions from Road Traffic (VERT) 1.0, an R-based framework for estimating road transport emissions from traffic flows
AeroMix v1.0.1: a Python package for modeling aerosol optical properties and mixing states
Impact of ITCZ width on global climate: ITCZ-MIP
Deep-learning-driven simulations of boundary layer clouds over the Southern Great Plains
Mixed-precision computing in the GRIST dynamical core for weather and climate modelling
A conservative immersed boundary method for the multi-physics urban large-eddy simulation model uDALES v2.0
RCEMIP-II: mock-Walker simulations as phase II of the radiative–convective equilibrium model intercomparison project
Objective identification of meteorological fronts and climatologies from ERA-Interim and ERA5
TAMS: a tracking, classifying, and variable-assigning algorithm for mesoscale convective systems in simulated and satellite-derived datasets
Development of the adjoint of the unified tropospheric–stratospheric chemistry extension (UCX) in GEOS-Chem adjoint v36
New explicit formulae for the settling speed of prolate spheroids in the atmosphere: theoretical background and implementation in AerSett v2.0.2
ZJU-AERO V0.5: an Accurate and Efficient Radar Operator designed for CMA-GFS/MESO with the capability to simulate non-spherical hydrometeors
The Year of Polar Prediction site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) phase 1: project overview and Arctic winter forecast evaluation
Evaluating CHASER V4.0 global formaldehyde (HCHO) simulations using satellite, aircraft, and ground-based remote-sensing observations
Global variable-resolution simulations of extreme precipitation over Henan, China, in 2021 with MPAS-Atmosphere v7.3
The CHIMERE chemistry-transport model v2023r1
tobac v1.5: introducing fast 3D tracking, splits and mergers, and other enhancements for identifying and analysing meteorological phenomena
Merged Observatory Data Files (MODFs): an integrated observational data product supporting process-oriented investigations and diagnostics
Simulation of marine stratocumulus using the super-droplet method: numerical convergence and comparison to a double-moment bulk scheme using SCALE-SDM 5.2.6-2.3.1
WRF-Comfort: simulating microscale variability in outdoor heat stress at the city scale with a mesoscale model
Representing effects of surface heterogeneity in a multi-plume eddy diffusivity mass flux boundary layer parameterization
Can TROPOMI NO2 satellite data be used to track the drop in and resurgence of NOx emissions in Germany between 2019–2021 using the multi-source plume method (MSPM)?
A spatiotemporally separated framework for reconstructing the sources of atmospheric radionuclide releases
A parameterization scheme for the floating wind farm in a coupled atmosphere–wave model (COAWST v3.7)
RoadSurf 1.1: open-source road weather model library
Calibrating and validating the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) urban cooling model: case studies in France and the United States
The ddeq Python library for point source quantification from remote sensing images (version 1.0)
Incorporating Oxygen Isotopes of Oxidized Reactive Nitrogen in the Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism, version 2 (ICOIN-RACM2)
A general comprehensive evaluation method for cross-scale precipitation forecasts
Implementation of a Simple Actuator Disk for Large-Eddy Simulation in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-SADLES v1.2) for wind turbine wake simulation
WRF-PDAF v1.0: implementation and application of an online localized ensemble data assimilation framework
Implementation and evaluation of diabatic advection in the Lagrangian transport model MPTRAC 2.6
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2_cool_fort-1.0)
Development of a multiphase chemical mechanism to improve secondary organic aerosol formation in CAABA/MECCA (version 4.7.0)
Application of regional meteorology and air quality models based on the microprocessor without interlocked piped stages (MIPS) and LoongArch CPU platforms
Investigating ground-level ozone pollution in semi-arid and arid regions of Arizona using WRF-Chem v4.4 modeling
An objective identification technique for potential vorticity structures associated with African easterly waves
Importance of microphysical settings for climate forcing by stratospheric SO2 injections as modeled by SOCOL-AERv2
Assessment of surface ozone products from downscaled CAMS reanalysis and CAMS daily forecast using urban air quality monitoring stations in Iran
Open boundary conditions for atmospheric large-eddy simulations and their implementation in DALES4.4
Efficient and stable coupling of the SuperdropNet deep-learning-based cloud microphysics (v0.1.0) with the ICON climate and weather model (v2.6.5)
Three-dimensional variational assimilation with a multivariate background error covariance for the Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere with the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI-MPAS 2.0.0-beta)
FUME 2.0 – Flexible Universal processor for Modeling Emissions
DEUCE v1.0: a neural network for probabilistic precipitation nowcasting with aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties
Evaluation of multi-season convection-permitting atmosphere – mixed-layer ocean simulations of the Maritime Continent
RASCAL v1.0.0: An Open Source Tool for Climatological Time Series Reconstruction and Extension
Selecting CMIP6 GCMs for CORDEX Dynamical Downscaling over Southeast Asia Using a Standardised Benchmarking Framework
Investigating the impact of coupling HARMONIE-WINS50 (cy43) meteorology to LOTOS-EUROS (v2.2.002) on a simulation of NO2 concentrations over the Netherlands
Máté Mile, Stephanie Guedj, and Roger Randriamampianina
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6571–6587, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6571-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6571-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations provide crucial information about atmospheric constituents in a global distribution that helps to better predict the weather over sparsely observed regions like the Arctic. However, the use of satellite data is usually conservative and imperfect. In this study, a better spatial representation of satellite observations is discussed and explored by a so-called footprint function or operator, highlighting its added value through a case study and diagnostics.
Hynek Bednář and Holger Kantz
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6489–6511, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6489-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6489-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The forecast error growth of atmospheric phenomena is caused by initial and model errors. When studying the initial error growth, it may turn out that small-scale phenomena, which contribute little to the forecast product, significantly affect the ability to predict this product. With a negative result, we investigate in the extended Lorenz (2005) system whether omitting these phenomena will improve predictability. A theory explaining and describing this behavior is developed.
Giorgio Veratti, Alessandro Bigi, Sergio Teggi, and Grazia Ghermandi
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6465–6487, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6465-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we present VERT (Vehicular Emissions from Road Traffic), an R package designed to estimate transport emissions using traffic estimates and vehicle fleet composition data. Compared to other tools available in the literature, VERT stands out for its user-friendly configuration and flexibility of user input. Case studies demonstrate its accuracy in both urban and regional contexts, making it a valuable tool for air quality management and transport scenario planning.
Sam P. Raj, Puna Ram Sinha, Rohit Srivastava, Srinivas Bikkina, and Damu Bala Subrahamanyam
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6379–6399, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6379-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6379-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A Python successor to the aerosol module of the OPAC model, named AeroMix, has been developed, with enhanced capabilities to better represent real atmospheric aerosol mixing scenarios. AeroMix’s performance in modeling aerosol mixing states has been evaluated against field measurements, substantiating its potential as a versatile aerosol optical model framework for next-generation algorithms to infer aerosol mixing states and chemical composition.
Angeline G. Pendergrass, Michael P. Byrne, Oliver Watt-Meyer, Penelope Maher, and Mark J. Webb
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6365–6378, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6365-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The width of the tropical rain belt affects many aspects of our climate, yet we do not understand what controls it. To better understand it, we present a method to change it in numerical model experiments. We show that the method works well in four different models. The behavior of the width is unexpectedly simple in some ways, such as how strong the winds are as it changes, but in other ways, it is more complicated, especially how temperature increases with carbon dioxide.
Tianning Su and Yunyan Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6319–6336, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using 2 decades of field observations over the Southern Great Plains, this study developed a deep-learning model to simulate the complex dynamics of boundary layer clouds. The deep-learning model can serve as the cloud parameterization within reanalysis frameworks, offering insights into improving the simulation of low clouds. By quantifying biases due to various meteorological factors and parameterizations, this deep-learning-driven approach helps bridge the observation–modeling divide.
Siyuan Chen, Yi Zhang, Yiming Wang, Zhuang Liu, Xiaohan Li, and Wei Xue
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6301–6318, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6301-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6301-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores strategies and techniques for implementing mixed-precision code optimization within an atmosphere model dynamical core. The coded equation terms in the governing equations that are sensitive (or insensitive) to the precision level have been identified. The performance of mixed-precision computing in weather and climate simulations was analyzed.
Sam O. Owens, Dipanjan Majumdar, Chris E. Wilson, Paul Bartholomew, and Maarten van Reeuwijk
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6277–6300, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6277-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6277-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Designing cities that are resilient, sustainable, and beneficial to health requires an understanding of urban climate and air quality. This article presents an upgrade to the multi-physics numerical model uDALES, which can simulate microscale airflow, heat transfer, and pollutant dispersion in urban environments. This upgrade enables it to resolve realistic urban geometries more accurately and to take advantage of the resources available on current and future high-performance computing systems.
Allison A. Wing, Levi G. Silvers, and Kevin A. Reed
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6195–6225, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6195-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the experimental design for a model intercomparison project to study tropical clouds and climate. It is a follow-up from a prior project that used a simplified framework for tropical climate. The new project adds one new component – a specified pattern of sea surface temperatures as the lower boundary condition. We provide example results from one cloud-resolving model and one global climate model and test the sensitivity to the experimental parameters.
Philip G. Sansom and Jennifer L. Catto
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6137–6151, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6137-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6137-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather fronts bring a lot of rain and strong winds to many regions of the mid-latitudes. We have developed an updated method of identifying these fronts in gridded data that can be used on new datasets with small grid spacing. The method can be easily applied to different datasets due to the use of open-source software for its development and shows improvements over similar previous methods. We present an updated estimate of the average frequency of fronts over the past 40 years.
Kelly M. Núñez Ocasio and Zachary L. Moon
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6035–6049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
TAMS is an open-source Python-based package for tracking and classifying mesoscale convective systems that can be used to study observed and simulated systems. Each step of the algorithm is described in this paper with examples showing how to make use of visualization and post-processing tools within the package. A unique and valuable feature of this tracker is its support for unstructured grids in the identification stage and grid-independent tracking.
Irene C. Dedoussi, Daven K. Henze, Sebastian D. Eastham, Raymond L. Speth, and Steven R. H. Barrett
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5689–5703, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric model gradients provide a meaningful tool for better understanding the underlying atmospheric processes. Adjoint modeling enables computationally efficient gradient calculations. We present the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem unified chemistry extension (UCX). With this development, the GEOS-Chem adjoint model can capture stratospheric ozone and other processes jointly with tropospheric processes. We apply it to characterize the Antarctic ozone depletion potential of active halogen species.
Sylvain Mailler, Sotirios Mallios, Arineh Cholakian, Vassilis Amiridis, Laurent Menut, and Romain Pennel
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5641–5655, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5641-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5641-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose two explicit expressions to calculate the settling speed of solid atmospheric particles with prolate spheroidal shapes. The first formulation is based on theoretical arguments only, while the second one is based on computational fluid dynamics calculations. We show that the first method is suitable for virtually all atmospheric aerosols, provided their shape can be adequately described as a prolate spheroid, and we provide an implementation of the first method in AerSett v2.0.2.
Hejun Xie, Lei Bi, and Wei Han
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5657–5688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A radar operator plays a crucial role in utilizing radar observations to enhance numerical weather forecasts. However, developing an advanced radar operator is challenging due to various complexities associated with the wave scattering by non-spherical hydrometeors, radar beam propagation, and multiple platforms. In this study, we introduce a novel radar operator named the Accurate and Efficient Radar Operator developed by ZheJiang University (ZJU-AERO) which boasts several unique features.
Jonathan J. Day, Gunilla Svensson, Barbara Casati, Taneil Uttal, Siri-Jodha Khalsa, Eric Bazile, Elena Akish, Niramson Azouz, Lara Ferrighi, Helmut Frank, Michael Gallagher, Øystein Godøy, Leslie M. Hartten, Laura X. Huang, Jareth Holt, Massimo Di Stefano, Irene Suomi, Zen Mariani, Sara Morris, Ewan O'Connor, Roberta Pirazzini, Teresa Remes, Rostislav Fadeev, Amy Solomon, Johanna Tjernström, and Mikhail Tolstykh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5511–5543, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The YOPP site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP), which was designed to facilitate enhanced weather forecast evaluation in polar regions, is discussed here, focussing on describing the archive of forecast data and presenting a multi-model evaluation at Arctic supersites during February and March 2018. The study highlights an underestimation in boundary layer temperature variance that is common across models and a related inability to forecast cold extremes at several of the sites.
Hossain Mohammed Syedul Hoque, Kengo Sudo, Hitoshi Irie, Yanfeng He, and Md Firoz Khan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5545–5571, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5545-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5545-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using multi-platform observations, we validated global formaldehyde (HCHO) simulations from a chemistry transport model. HCHO is a crucial intermediate in the chemical catalytic cycle that governs the ozone formation in the troposphere. The model was capable of replicating the observed spatiotemporal variability in HCHO. In a few cases, the model's capability was limited. This is attributed to the uncertainties in the observations and the model parameters.
Zijun Liu, Li Dong, Zongxu Qiu, Xingrong Li, Huiling Yuan, Dongmei Meng, Xiaobin Qiu, Dingyuan Liang, and Yafei Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5477–5496, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5477-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5477-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we completed a series of simulations with MPAS-Atmosphere (version 7.3) to study the extreme precipitation event of Henan, China, during 20–22 July 2021. We found the different performance of two built-in parameterization scheme suites (mesoscale and convection-permitting suites) with global quasi-uniform and variable-resolution meshes. This study holds significant implications for advancing the understanding of the scale-aware capability of MPAS-Atmosphere.
Laurent Menut, Arineh Cholakian, Romain Pennel, Guillaume Siour, Sylvain Mailler, Myrto Valari, Lya Lugon, and Yann Meurdesoif
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5431–5457, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5431-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5431-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new version of the CHIMERE model is presented. This version contains both computational and physico-chemical changes. The computational changes make it easy to choose the variables to be extracted as a result, including values of maximum sub-hourly concentrations. Performance tests show that the model is 1.5 to 2 times faster than the previous version for the same setup. Processes such as turbulence, transport schemes and dry deposition have been modified and updated.
G. Alexander Sokolowsky, Sean W. Freeman, William K. Jones, Julia Kukulies, Fabian Senf, Peter J. Marinescu, Max Heikenfeld, Kelcy N. Brunner, Eric C. Bruning, Scott M. Collis, Robert C. Jackson, Gabrielle R. Leung, Nils Pfeifer, Bhupendra A. Raut, Stephen M. Saleeby, Philip Stier, and Susan C. van den Heever
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5309–5330, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Building on previous analysis tools developed for atmospheric science, the original release of the Tracking and Object-Based Analysis (tobac) Python package, v1.2, was open-source, modular, and insensitive to the type of gridded input data. Here, we present the latest version of tobac, v1.5, which substantially improves scientific capabilities and computational efficiency from the previous version. These enhancements permit new uses for tobac in atmospheric science and potentially other fields.
Taneil Uttal, Leslie M. Hartten, Siri Jodha Khalsa, Barbara Casati, Gunilla Svensson, Jonathan Day, Jareth Holt, Elena Akish, Sara Morris, Ewan O'Connor, Roberta Pirazzini, Laura X. Huang, Robert Crawford, Zen Mariani, Øystein Godøy, Johanna A. K. Tjernström, Giri Prakash, Nicki Hickmon, Marion Maturilli, and Christopher J. Cox
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5225–5247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A Merged Observatory Data File (MODF) format to systematically collate complex atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial data sets collected by multiple instruments during field campaigns is presented. The MODF format is also designed to be applied to model output data, yielding format-matching Merged Model Data Files (MMDFs). MODFs plus MMDFs will augment and accelerate the synergistic use of model results with observational data to increase understanding and predictive skill.
Chongzhi Yin, Shin-ichiro Shima, Lulin Xue, and Chunsong Lu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5167–5189, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5167-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5167-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate numerical convergence properties of a particle-based numerical cloud microphysics model (SDM) and a double-moment bulk scheme for simulating a marine stratocumulus case, compare their results with model intercomparison project results, and present possible explanations for the different results of the SDM and the bulk scheme. Aerosol processes can be accurately simulated using SDM, and this may be an important factor affecting the behavior and morphology of marine stratocumulus.
Alberto Martilli, Negin Nazarian, E. Scott Krayenhoff, Jacob Lachapelle, Jiachen Lu, Esther Rivas, Alejandro Rodriguez-Sanchez, Beatriz Sanchez, and José Luis Santiago
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5023–5039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5023-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5023-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we present a model that quantifies the thermal stress and its microscale variability at a city scale with a mesoscale model. This tool can have multiple applications, from early warnings of extreme heat to the vulnerable population to the evaluation of the effectiveness of heat mitigation strategies. It is the first model that includes information on microscale variability in a mesoscale model, something that is essential for fully evaluating heat stress.
Nathan P. Arnold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5041–5056, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5041-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5041-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models often represent the land surface at smaller scales than the atmosphere, but surface–atmosphere coupling uses only aggregated surface properties. This study presents a method to allow heterogeneous surface properties to modify boundary layer updrafts. The method is tested in single column experiments. Updraft properties are found to reasonably covary with surface conditions, and simulated boundary layer variability is enhanced over more heterogeneous land surfaces.
Enrico Dammers, Janot Tokaya, Christian Mielke, Kevin Hausmann, Debora Griffin, Chris McLinden, Henk Eskes, and Renske Timmermans
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4983–5007, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4983-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4983-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrogen dioxide (NOx) is produced by sources such as industry and traffic and is directly linked to negative impacts on health and the environment. The current construction of emission inventories to keep track of NOx emissions is slow and time-consuming. Satellite measurements provide a way to quickly and independently estimate emissions. In this study, we apply a consistent methodology to derive NOx emissions over Germany and illustrate the value of having such a method for fast projections.
Yuhan Xu, Sheng Fang, Xinwen Dong, and Shuhan Zhuang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4961–4982, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4961-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4961-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent atmospheric radionuclide leakages from unknown sources have posed a new challenge in nuclear emergency assessment. Reconstruction via environmental observations is the only feasible way to identify sources, but simultaneous reconstruction of the source location and release rate yields high uncertainties. We propose a spatiotemporally separated reconstruction strategy that avoids these uncertainties and outperforms state-of-the-art methods with respect to accuracy and uncertainty ranges.
Shaokun Deng, Shengmu Yang, Shengli Chen, Daoyi Chen, Xuefeng Yang, and Shanshan Cui
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4891–4909, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4891-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4891-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global offshore wind power development is moving from offshore to deeper waters, where floating offshore wind turbines have an advantage over bottom-fixed turbines. However, current wind farm parameterization schemes in mesoscale models are not applicable to floating turbines. We propose a floating wind farm parameterization scheme that accounts for the attenuation of the significant wave height by floating turbines. The results indicate that it has a significant effect on the power output.
Virve Eveliina Karsisto
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4837–4853, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
RoadSurf is an open-source library that contains functions from the Finnish Meteorological Institute’s road weather model. The evaluation of the library shows that it is well suited for making road surface temperature forecasts. The evaluation was done by making forecasts for about 400 road weather stations in Finland with the library. Accurate forecasts help road authorities perform salting and plowing operations at the right time and keep roads safe for drivers.
Perrine Hamel, Martí Bosch, Léa Tardieu, Aude Lemonsu, Cécile de Munck, Chris Nootenboom, Vincent Viguié, Eric Lonsdorf, James A. Douglass, and Richard P. Sharp
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4755–4771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4755-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The InVEST Urban Cooling model estimates the cooling effect of vegetation in cities. We further developed an algorithm to facilitate model calibration and evaluation. Applying the algorithm to case studies in France and in the United States, we found that nighttime air temperature estimates compare well with reference datasets. Estimated change in temperature from a land cover scenario compares well with an alternative model estimate, supporting the use of the model for urban planning decisions.
Gerrit Kuhlmann, Erik Koene, Sandro Meier, Diego Santaren, Grégoire Broquet, Frédéric Chevallier, Janne Hakkarainen, Janne Nurmela, Laia Amorós, Johanna Tamminen, and Dominik Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4773–4789, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a Python software library for data-driven emission quantification (ddeq). It can be used to determine the emissions of hot spots (cities, power plants and industry) from remote sensing images using different methods. ddeq can be extended for new datasets and methods, providing a powerful community tool for users and developers. The application of the methods is shown using Jupyter notebooks included in the library.
Wendell W. Walters, Masayuki Takeuchi, Nga L. Ng, and Meredith G. Hastings
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4673–4687, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study introduces a novel chemical mechanism for explicitly tracking oxygen isotope transfer in oxidized reactive nitrogen and odd oxygen using the Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism, version 2. This model enhances our ability to simulate and compare oxygen isotope compositions of reactive nitrogen, revealing insights into oxidation chemistry. The approach shows promise for improving atmospheric chemistry models and tropospheric oxidation capacity predictions.
Bing Zhang, Mingjian Zeng, Anning Huang, Zhengkun Qin, Couhua Liu, Wenru Shi, Xin Li, Kefeng Zhu, Chunlei Gu, and Jialing Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4579–4601, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
By directly analyzing the proximity of precipitation forecasts and observations, a precipitation accuracy score (PAS) method was constructed. This method does not utilize a traditional contingency-table-based classification verification; however, it can replace the threat score (TS), equitable threat score (ETS), and other skill score methods, and it can be used to calculate the accuracy of numerical models or quantitative precipitation forecasts.
Hai Bui, Mostafa Bakhoday-Paskyabi, and Mohammadreza Mohammadpour-Penchah
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4447–4465, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4447-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4447-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new wind turbine wake model, the Simple Actuator Disc for Large Eddy Simulation (SADLES), integrated with the widely used Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. WRF-SADLES accurately simulates wind turbine wakes at resolutions of a few dozen meters, aligning well with idealized simulations and observational measurements. This makes WRF-SADLES a promising tool for wind energy research, offering a balance between accuracy, computational efficiency, and ease of implementation.
Changliang Shao and Lars Nerger
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4433–4445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4433-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces and evaluates WRF-PDAF, a fully online-coupled ensemble data assimilation (DA) system. A key advantage of the WRF-PDAF configuration is its ability to concurrently integrate all ensemble states, eliminating the need for time-consuming distribution and collection of ensembles during the coupling communication. The extra time required for DA amounts to only 20.6 % per cycle. Twin experiment results underscore the effectiveness of the WRF-PDAF system.
Jan Clemens, Lars Hoffmann, Bärbel Vogel, Sabine Grießbach, and Nicole Thomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4467–4493, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4467-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4467-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Lagrangian transport models simulate the transport of air masses in the atmosphere. For example, one model (CLaMS) is well suited to calculating transport as it uses a special coordinate system and special vertical wind. However, it only runs inefficiently on modern supercomputers. Hence, we have implemented the benefits of CLaMS into a new model (MPTRAC), which is already highly efficient on modern supercomputers. Finally, in extensive tests, we showed that CLaMS and MPTRAC agree very well.
Manuel López-Puertas, Federico Fabiano, Victor Fomichev, Bernd Funke, and Daniel R. Marsh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4401–4432, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The radiative infrared cooling of CO2 in the middle atmosphere is crucial for computing its thermal structure. It requires one however to include non-local thermodynamic equilibrium processes which are computationally very expensive, which cannot be afforded by climate models. In this work, we present an updated, efficient, accurate and very fast (~50 µs) parameterization of that cooling able to cope with CO2 abundances from half the pre-industrial values to 10 times the current abundance.
Felix Wieser, Rolf Sander, Changmin Cho, Hendrik Fuchs, Thorsten Hohaus, Anna Novelli, Ralf Tillmann, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4311–4330, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4311-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4311-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The chemistry scheme of the atmospheric box model CAABA/MECCA is expanded to achieve an improved aerosol formation from emitted organic compounds. In addition to newly added reactions, temperature-dependent partitioning of all new species between the gas and aqueous phases is estimated and included in the pre-existing scheme. Sensitivity runs show an overestimation of key compounds from isoprene, which can be explained by a lack of aqueous-phase degradation reactions and box model limitations.
Zehua Bai, Qizhong Wu, Kai Cao, Yiming Sun, and Huaqiong Cheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4383–4399, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is relatively limited research on the application of scientific computing on RISC CPU platforms. The MIPS architecture CPUs, a type of RISC CPUs, have distinct advantages in energy efficiency and scalability. The air quality modeling system can run stably on the MIPS and LoongArch platforms, and the experiment results verify the stability of scientific computing on the platforms. The work provides a technical foundation for the scientific application based on MIPS and LoongArch.
Yafang Guo, Chayan Roychoudhury, Mohammad Amin Mirrezaei, Rajesh Kumar, Armin Sorooshian, and Avelino F. Arellano
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4331–4353, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This research focuses on surface ozone (O3) pollution in Arizona, a historically air-quality-challenged arid and semi-arid region in the US. The unique characteristics of this kind of region, e.g., intense heat, minimal moisture, and persistent desert shrubs, play a vital role in comprehending O3 exceedances. Using the WRF-Chem model, we analyzed O3 levels in the pre-monsoon month, revealing the model's skill in capturing diurnal and MDA8 O3 levels.
Christoph Fischer, Andreas H. Fink, Elmar Schömer, Marc Rautenhaus, and Michael Riemer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4213–4228, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4213-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4213-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a method for identifying and tracking 3-D potential vorticity structures within African easterly waves (AEWs). Each identified structure is characterized by descriptors, including its 3-D position and orientation, which have been validated through composite comparisons. A trough-centric perspective on the descriptors reveals the evolution and distinct characteristics of AEWs. These descriptors serve as valuable statistical inputs for the study of AEW-related phenomena.
Sandro Vattioni, Andrea Stenke, Beiping Luo, Gabriel Chiodo, Timofei Sukhodolov, Elia Wunderlin, and Thomas Peter
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4181–4197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4181-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the sensitivity of aerosol size distributions in the presence of strong SO2 injections for climate interventions or after volcanic eruptions to the call sequence and frequency of the routines for nucleation and condensation in sectional aerosol models with operator splitting. Using the aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv2, we show that the radiative and chemical outputs are sensitive to these settings at high H2SO4 supersaturations and how to obtain reliable results.
Najmeh Kaffashzadeh and Abbas-Ali Aliakbari Bidokhti
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4155–4179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4155-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4155-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the capability of two state-of-the-art global datasets in simulating surface ozone over Iran using a new methodology. It is found that the global model data need to be downscaled for regulatory purposes or policy applications at local scales. The method can be useful not only for the evaluation but also for the prediction of other chemical species, such as aerosols.
Franciscus Liqui Lung, Christian Jakob, A. Pier Siebesma, and Fredrik Jansson
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4053–4076, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4053-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4053-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Traditionally, high-resolution atmospheric models employ periodic boundary conditions, which limit simulations to domains without horizontal variations. In this research open boundary conditions are developed to replace the periodic boundary conditions. The implementation is tested in a controlled setup, and the results show minimal disturbances. Using these boundary conditions, high-resolution models can be forced by a coarser model to study atmospheric phenomena in realistic background states.
Caroline Arnold, Shivani Sharma, Tobias Weigel, and David S. Greenberg
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4017–4029, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4017-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In atmospheric models, rain formation is simplified to be computationally efficient. We trained a machine learning model, SuperdropNet, to emulate warm-rain formation based on super-droplet simulations. Here, we couple SuperdropNet with an atmospheric model in a warm-bubble experiment and find that the coupled simulation runs stable and produces reasonable results, making SuperdropNet a viable ML proxy for droplet simulations. We also present a comprehensive benchmark for coupling architectures.
Byoung-Joo Jung, Benjamin Ménétrier, Chris Snyder, Zhiquan Liu, Jonathan J. Guerrette, Junmei Ban, Ivette Hernández Baños, Yonggang G. Yu, and William C. Skamarock
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3879–3895, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3879-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3879-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the multivariate static background error covariance (B) for the JEDI-MPAS 3D-Var data assimilation system. With tuned B parameters, the multivariate B gives physically balanced analysis increment fields in the single-observation test framework. In the month-long cycling experiment with a global 60 km mesh, 3D-Var with static B performs stably. Due to its simple workflow and minimal computational requirements, JEDI-MPAS 3D-Var can be useful for the research community.
Michal Belda, Nina Benešová, Jaroslav Resler, Peter Huszár, Ondřej Vlček, Pavel Krč, Jan Karlický, Pavel Juruš, and Kryštof Eben
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3867–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3867-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3867-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For modeling atmospheric chemistry, it is necessary to provide data on emissions of pollutants. These can come from various sources and in various forms, and preprocessing of the data to be ingestible by chemistry models can be quite challenging. We developed the FUME processor to use a database layer that internally transforms all input data into a rigid structure, facilitating further processing to allow for emission processing from the continental to the street scale.
Bent Harnist, Seppo Pulkkinen, and Terhi Mäkinen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3839–3866, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3839-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3839-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic precipitation nowcasting (local forecasting for 0–6 h) is crucial for reducing damage from events like flash floods. For this goal, we propose the DEUCE neural-network-based model which uses data and model uncertainties to generate an ensemble of potential precipitation development scenarios for the next hour. Trained and evaluated with Finnish precipitation composites, DEUCE was found to produce more skillful and reliable nowcasts than established models.
Emma Howard, Steven Woolnough, Nicholas Klingaman, Daniel Shipley, Claudio Sanchez, Simon C. Peatman, Cathryn E. Birch, and Adrian J. Matthews
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3815–3837, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3815-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3815-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a coupled atmosphere–mixed-layer ocean simulation setup that will be used to study weather processes in Southeast Asia. The set-up has been used to compare high-resolution simulations, which are able to partially resolve storms, to coarser simulations, which cannot. We compare the model performance at representing variability of rainfall and sea surface temperatures across length scales between the coarse and fine models.
Álvaro González-Cervera and Luis Durán
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-958, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-958, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
RASCAL is an open-source Python tool designed for reconstructing daily climate observations, especially in regions with complex local phenomena. It merges large-scale weather patterns with local weather using the Analog Method. Evaluations in central Spain show that RASCAL outperforms ERA20C reanalysis in reconstructing precipitation and temperature. RASCAL offers opportunities of broad scientific applications, from short-term forecasts to local-scale climate change scenarios.
Phuong Loan Nguyen, Lisa V. Alexander, Marcus J. Thatcher, Son C. H. Truong, Rachael N. Isphording, and John L. McGregor
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-84, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-84, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
We apply a comprehensive approach to select a subset of CMIP6 that is suitable for dynamical downscaling over Southeast Asia by considering model performance, model independence, data availability, and future climate change spread. The standardised benchmarking framework is applied to identify a subset of models through two stages of assessment: statistical-based and process-based metrics. We finalize a sub-set of two independent models for dynamical downscaling over Southeast Asia.
Andrés Yarce Botero, Michiel van Weele, Arjo Segers, Pier Siebesma, and Henk Eskes
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3765–3781, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3765-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3765-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
HARMONIE WINS50 reanalysis data with 0.025° × 0.025° resolution from 2019 to 2021 were coupled with the LOTOS-EUROS Chemical Transport Model. HARMONIE and ECMWF meteorology configurations against Cabauw observations (52.0° N, 4.9° W) were evaluated as simulated NO2 concentrations with ground-level sensors. Differences in crucial meteorological input parameters (boundary layer height, vertical diffusion coefficient) between the hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic models were analysed.
Cited articles
Adeh, E. H., Good, S. P., Calaf, M., and Higgins, C. W.: Solar PV Power Potential is Greatest Over Croplands, Sci. Rep.-UK, 9, 11442, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-47803-3, 2019. a
Awan, N. K., Truhetz, H., and Gobiet, A.: Parameterization-Induced Error Characteristics of MM5 and WRF Operated in Climate Mode over the Alpine Region: An Ensemble-Based Analysis, J. Climate, 24, 3107–3123, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3674.1, 2011. a
Bauer, P., Thorpe, A., and Brunet, G.: The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction, Nature, 525, 47–55, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14956, 2015. a
Bauer, P., Dueben, P. D., Hoefler, T., Quintino, T., Schulthess, T. C., and Wedi, N. P.: The digital revolution of Earth-system science, Nature Computational Science, 1, 104–113, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43588-021-00023-0, 2021. a, b
Bellprat, O., Guemas, V., Doblas-Reyes, F., and Donat, M. G.: Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution, Nat. Commun., 10, 1732, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09729-2, 2019. a
Bentley, J. L., Stanat, D. F., and Williams, E.: The complexity of finding fixed-radius near neighbors, Inform. Process. Lett., 6, 209–212, https://doi.org/10.1016/0020-0190(77)90070-9, 1977. a
Berner, J., Shutts, G. J., Leutbecher, M., and Palmer, T. N.: A Spectral Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter Scheme and Its Impact on Flow-Dependent Predictability in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System, J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 603–626, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jas2677.1, 2009. a
Berner, J., Ha, S.-Y., Hacker, J. P., Fournier, A., and Snyder, C.: Model Uncertainty in a Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System: Stochastic versus Multiphysics Representations, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 1972–1995, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3595.1, 2011. a
Buizza, R., Milleer, M., and Palmer, T. N.: Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 2887–2908, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712556006, 1999. a
Dai, A., Meehl, G. A., Washington, W. M., Wigley, T. M. L., and Arblaster, J. M.: Ensemble Simulation of Twenty-First Century Climate Changes: Business-as-Usual versus CO2 Stabilization, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 82, 2377–2388, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<2377:ESOTFC>2.3.CO;2, 2001. a
Diaz, J., Cheng, C.-H., and Nnadi, F.: Predicting Downward Longwave Radiation for Various Land Use in All-Sky Condition: Northeast Florida, Adv. Meteorol., 2014, 525148, https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/525148, 2014. a
Dixon, B. and Candade, N.: Multispectral landuse classification using neural networks and support vector machines: one or the other, or both?, Int. J. Remote Sens., 29, 1185–1206, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160701294661, 2008. a
Dupuy, F., Lu, Y.-S., Good, G., and Zamo, M.: Calibration of solar radiation ensemble forecasts using convolutional neural network, in: EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, online, 19–30 April 2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7359, EGU21–7359, 2021. a
ECMWF: ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts [data set], https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/dataset/ecmwf-reanalysis-v5, last access: 9 February 2023.
Ehrendorfer, M.: Predicting the uncertainty of numerical weather forecasts: A review, Meteorol. Z., 6, 147–183, 1997. a
EUMETSAT: Cloud Mask Product: Product Guide, 2015, DocNo, EUM/TSS/MAN/15/801027, Issue: v1A,
https://archive.eumetsat.int/, last access: 21 August 2015.
Fleiss, J. L. and Cohen, J.: The equivalence of weighted kappa and the intraclass correlation coefficient as measures of reliability, Educ. Psychol. Meas., 33, 613–619, 1973. a
Franke, P.: Quantitative estimation of unexpected emissions in the atmosphere by stochastic inversion techniques, PhD thesis, Universität zu Köln, urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-84379, 2018. a
Franke, P., Lange, A. C., and Elbern, H.: Particle-filter-based volcanic ash emission inversion applied to a hypothetical sub-Plinian Eyjafjallajökull eruption using the Ensemble for Stochastic Integration of Atmospheric Simulations (ESIAS-chem) version 1.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1037–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1037-2022, 2022. a, b
García-Díez, M., Fernández, J., Fita, L., and Yagüe, C.: Seasonal dependence of WRF model biases and sensitivity to PBL schemes over Europe, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 139, 501–514, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1976, 2013. a, b
Gbode, I. E., Dudhia, J., Ogunjobi, K. O., and Ajayi, V. O.: Sensitivity of different physics schemes in the WRF model during a West African monsoon regime, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 136, 733–751, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2538-x, 2019. a, b, c, d
Gneiting, T. and Raftery, A. E.: Weather Forecasting with Ensemble Methods, Science, 310, 248–249, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1115255, 2005. a
Hamill, T. M., Whitaker, J. S., Fiorino, M., and Benjamin, S. G.: Global Ensemble Predictions of 2009's Tropical Cyclones Initialized with an Ensemble Kalman Filter, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 668–688, 2011. a
Hamill, T. M., Bates, G. T., Whitaker, J. S., Murray, D. R., Fiorino, M., Galarneau, T. J., Zhu, Y., and Lapenta, W.: NOAA's Second-Generation Global Medium-Range Ensemble Reforecast Dataset, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 1553–1565, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-12-00014.1, 2013 (data available at: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/weather-climate-models/global-ensemble-forecast, last access: 25 September 2018). a, b, c
Hersbach, H. and Dee, D.: ERA5 reanalysis is in production [Data], ECMWF Newsletter, 147, https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/147/news/era5-reanalysis-production (last access: 22 March 2022), 2016. a
Lu, Y.-S.: hydrogencl/WRF_TOOLS: V0.9.0 (v0.9.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7603301, 2023a. a
Lu, Y.-S.: hydrogencl/SciTool_Py: v0.9.0 (v0.9.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7603323, 2023b. a
Islam, K., Rahman, M. F., and Jashimuddin, M.: Modeling land use change using Cellular Automata and Artificial Neural Network: The case of Chunati Wildlife Sanctuary, Bangladesh, Ecol. Indic., 88, 439–453, 2018. a
Jankov, I., Gallus, W. A., Segal, M., and Koch, S. E.: Influence of Initial Conditions on the WRF?ARW Model QPF Response to Physical Parameterization Changes, Weather Forecast., 22, 501–519, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF998.1, 2007. a, b
Jankov, I., Grasso, L. D., Sengupta, M., Neiman, P. J., Zupanski, D., Zupanski, M., Lindsey, D., Hillger, D. W., Birkenheuer, D. L., Brummer, R., and Yuan, H.: An Evaluation of Five ARW-WRF Microphysics Schemes Using Synthetic GOES Imagery for an Atmospheric River Event Affecting the California Coast, J. Hydrometeorol., 12, 618–633, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JHM1282.1, 2011. a, b
Jankov, I., Berner, J., Beck, J., Jiang, H., Olson, J. B., Grell, G., Smirnova, T. G., Benjamin, S. G., and Brown, J. M.: A Performance Comparison between Multiphysics and Stochastic Approaches within a North American RAP Ensemble, Mon. Weather Rev., 145, 1161–1179, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0160.1, 2017. a, b, c
Jin, J., Miller, N. L., and Schlegel, N.: Sensitivity Study of Four Land Surface Schemes in the WRF Model Advances in Meteorology, Hindawi Publishing, Corporation, 2010, 167436, https://doi.org/10.1155/2010/167436, 2010. a, b, c
Jülich Supercomputing Centre: JUWELS: Modular Tier-0/1 Supercomputer at the Jülich Supercomputing Centre, Journal of Large-Scale Research Facilities, 5, urn:nbn:de:0001-jlsrf-5-171-5, https://doi.org/10.17815/jlsrf-5-171, 2019. a
Kitoh, A. and Endo, H.: Changes in precipitation extremes projected by a 20 km mesh global atmospheric model, Weather and Climate Extremes, 11, 41–52, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.09.001, 2016. a
Kleczek, M. A., Steeneveld, G.-J., and Holtslag, A. A. M.: Evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting Mesoscale Model for GABLS3: Impact of Boundary-Layer Schemes, Boundary Conditions and Spin-Up, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 152, 213–243, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-014-9925-3, 2014. a, b
Knist, S., Goergen, K., Buonomo, E., Christensen, O. B., Colette, A., Cardoso, R. M., Fealy, R., Fernández, J., García-Díez, M., Jacob, D., Kartsios, S., Katragkou, E., Keuler, K., Mayer, S., Meijgaard, E., Nikulin, G., Soares, P. M. M., Sobolowski, S., Szepszo, G., Teichmann, C., Vautard, R., Warrach-Sagi, K., Wulfmeyer, V., and Simmer, C.: Land-atmosphere coupling in EURO-CORDEX evaluation experiments, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 79–103, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025476, 2017. a, b
Knist, S., Goergen, K., and Simmer, C.: Evaluation and projected changes of precipitation statistics in convection-permitting WRF climate simulations over Central Europe, Clim. Dynam., 55, 325–341, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4147-x, 2018. a
Leutbecher, M. and Palmer, T. N.: Ensemble forecasting, J. Computat. Phys., 227, 3515–3539, 2008. a
Li, C.-H., Berner, J., Hong, J.-S., Fong, C.-T., and Kuo, Y.-H.: The Taiwan WRF Ensemble Prediction System: Scientific Description, Model-Error Representation and Performance Results, Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-019-00127-8, 2019. a, b, c, d
Liu, X., He, J., Yao, Y., Zhang, J., Liang, H., Wang, H., and Hong, Y.: Classifying urban land use by integrating remote sensing and social media data, International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 31, 1675–1696, https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2017.1324976, 2017. a
Lu, Y.-S. and Elbern, H.: Meteorological component of the Ensemble for Stochastic Integration of Atmospheric Simulations version 1.0 (Version 1), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6637315, 2022. a
Lu, Z., Zhang, Q., Miller, P. A., Zhang, Q., Berntell, E., and Smith, B.: Impacts of Large-Scale Sahara Solar Farms on Global Climate and Vegetation Cover, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL090789, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090789, 2021. a
Mooney, P. A., Mulligan, F. J., and Fealy, R.: Evaluation of the Sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model to Parameterization Schemes for Regional Climates of Europe over the Period 1990–95, J. Climate, 26, 1002–1017, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00676.1, 2013. a
Neumann, P., Düben, P., Adamidis, P., Bauer, P., Brück, M., Kornblueh, L., Klocke, D., Stevens, B., Wedi, N., and Biercamp, J.: Assessing the scales in numerical weather and climate predictions: will exascale be the rescue?, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 377, 20180148, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2018.0148, 2019. a
Otkin, J. A. and Greenwald, T. J.: Comparison of WRF Model-Simulated and MODIS-Derived Cloud Data, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 1957–1970, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR2293.1, 2008. a
Palmer, T. N.: Predicting uncertainty in forecasts of weather and climate, Rep. Prog. Phys., 63, 71–116, https://doi.org/10.1088/0034-4885/63/2/201, 2000. a
Palmer, T. N.: Towards the probabilistic Earth-system simulator: a vision for the future of climate and weather prediction, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 138, 841–861, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1923, 2012. a
Palmer, T. N. and Hardaker, P. J.: Handling uncertainty in science, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 369, 4681–4684, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0280, 2011. a
Pieri, A. B., von Hardenberg, J., Parodi, A., and Provenzale, A.: Sensitivity of Precipitation Statistics to Resolution, Microphysics, and Convective Parameterization: A Case Study with the High-Resolution WRF Climate Model over Europe, J. Hydrometeorol., 16, 1857–1872, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0221.1, 2015. a, b, c, d, e
Pontius, R.: Quantification error versus location error in comparison of categorical maps (vol. 66, pg. 1011, 2000), Photogramm. Eng. Rem. S., 66, 1011–1016, 2000. a
Rögnvaldsson, Ó., Bao, J.-W., Ágústsson, H., and Ólafsson, H.: Downslope windstorm in Iceland – WRF/MM5 model comparison, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 103–120, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-103-2011, 2011. a
Rohrig, K., Berkhout, V., Callies, D., Durstewitz, M., Faulstich, S., Hahn, B., Jung, M., Pauscher, L., Seibel, A., Shan, M., Siefert, M., Steffen, J., Collmann, M., Czichon, S., Dörenkämper, M., Gottschall, J., Lange, B., Ruhle, A., Sayer, F., Stoevesandt, B., and Wenske, J.: Powering the 21st century by wind energy – Options, facts, figures, Appl. Phys. Rev., 6, 031303, https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5089877, 2019. a
Samaniego, L., Thober, S., Kumar, R., Wanders, N., Rakovec, O., Pan, M., Zink, M., Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., and Marx, A.: Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 421–426, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0138-5, 2018. a
Santos-Alamillos, F. J., Pozo-Vázquez, D., Ruiz-Arias, J. A., Lara-Fanego, V., and Tovar-Pescador, J.: Analysis of WRF Model Wind Estimate Sensitivity to Physics Parameterization Choice and Terrain Representation in Andalusia (Southern Spain), J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 52, 1592–1609, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0204.1, 2013. a, b
Schneider, L. C. and Gil Pontius, R.: Modeling land-use change in the Ipswich watershed, Massachusetts, USA, Agr. Ecosyst. Environ., 85, 83–94, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-8809(01)00189-X, 2001. a
Sillmann, J., Thorarinsdottir, T., Keenlyside, N., Schaller, N., Alexander, L. V., Hegerl, G., Seneviratne, S. I., Vautard, R., Zhang, X., and Zwiers, F. W.: Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities, Weather and Climate Extremes, 18, 65–74, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2017.10.003, 2017. a, b, c
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Barker, D., Duda, M. G., Huang, X.-Y., Wang, W., and Powers, J. G.: A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3, Tech. Rep. NCAR/TN-475+STR, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, https://doi.org/10.5065/D68S4MVH, 2008. a, b
Stengel, M., Kniffka, A., Meirink, J. F., Lockhoff, M., Tan, J., and Hollmann, R.: CLAAS: the CM SAF cloud property data set using SEVIRI, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4297–4311, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4297-2014, 2014. a
Stöckli, R., Duguay-Tetzlaff, A., Bojanowski, J., Hollmann, R., Fuchs, P., and Werscheck, M.: CM SAF ClOud Fractional Cover dataset from METeosat First and Second Generation – Edition 1 (COMET Ed. 1) [data set], https://doi.org/10.5676/EUM_SAF_CM/CFC_METEOSAT/V001, 2017. a, b, c
Stöckli, R., Bojanowski, J. S., John, V. O., Duguay-Tetzlaff, A., Bourgeois, Q., Schulz, J., and Hollmann, R.: Cloud Detection with Historical Geostationary Satellite Sensors for Climate Applications, Remote Sens.-Basel, 11, 1052, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11091052, 2019. a
Tabari, H.: Climate change impact on flood and extreme precipitation increases with water availability, Sci. Rep.-UK, 10, 13768, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-70816-2, 2020. a
Tomaszewski, J. M. and Lundquist, J. K.: Simulated wind farm wake sensitivity to configuration choices in the Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3.8.1, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2645–2662, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2645-2020, 2020.
a
van Leeuwen, P. J.: Particle Filtering in Geophysical Systems, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 4089–4114, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR2835.1, 2009. a
Varga, A. J. and Breuer, H.: Sensitivity of simulated temperature, precipitation, and global radiation to different WRF configurations over the Carpathian Basin for regional climate applications, Clim. Dynam., 55, 2849–2866, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05416-x, 2020. a
Varga, G.: Changing nature of Saharan dust deposition in the Carpathian Basin (Central Europe): 40 years of identified North African dust events (1979–2018), Environ. Int., 139, 105712, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2020.105712, 2020. a
Warrach-Sagi, K., Schwitalla, T., Wulfmeyer, V., and Bauer, H.-S.: Evaluation of a climate simulation in Europe based on the WRF-NOAH model system: precipitation in Germany, Clim. Dynam., 41, 755–774, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1727-7, 2013. a, b, c
Yan, L., Eugenia, K., Safa, M., Jorge, R., Fred, K., Daniel, K.-D., Eviatar, B., and Ning, Z.: Climate model shows large-scale wind and solar farms in the Sahara increase rain and vegetation, Science, 361, 1019–1022, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aar5629, 2018. a
Yuan, F., Sawaya, K. E., Loeffelholz, B. C., and Bauer, M. E.: Land cover classification and change analysis of the Twin Cities (Minnesota) Metropolitan Area by multitemporal Landsat remote sensing, Remote Sens. Environ., 98, 317–328, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2005.08.006, 2005. a
Short summary
The Weather Forecasting and Research (WRF) model consists of many parameters and options that can be adapted to different conditions. This expansive sensitivity study uses a large-scale simulation system to determine the most suitable options for predicting cloud cover in Europe for deterministic and probabilistic weather predictions for day-ahead forecasting simulations.
The Weather Forecasting and Research (WRF) model consists of many parameters and options that...
