Prediction error growth in a more realistic atmospheric toy model with three spatiotemporal scales

Bednář, Hynek; Kantz, Holger

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4147-2022

Articles | Volume 15, issue 10

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4147-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4147-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 15, issue 10

Model experiment description paper

|

31 May 2022

Model experiment description paper |

| 31 May 2022

Prediction error growth in a more realistic atmospheric toy model with three spatiotemporal scales

Hynek Bednář and Holger Kantz

Data sets

Prediction Error Growth in a more Realistic Atmospheric Toy Model with Three Spatiotemporal Scales Hynek Bednář https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/2GC9J

Model code and software

Prediction Error Growth in a more Realistic Atmospheric Toy Model with Three Spatiotemporal Scales Hynek Bednář https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/2GC9J

Short summary

A scale-dependent error growth described by a power law or by a quadratic hypothesis is studied in Lorenz’s system with three spatiotemporal levels. The validity of power law is extended by including a saturation effect. The quadratic hypothesis can only serve as a first guess. In addition, we study the initial error growth for the ECMWF forecast system. Fitting the parameters, we conclude that there is an intrinsic limit of predictability after 22 days.