Articles | Volume 15, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2395-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2395-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Novel coupled permafrost–forest model (LAVESI–CryoGrid v1.0) revealing the interplay between permafrost, vegetation, and climate across eastern Siberia
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research,
14473 Potsdam, Germany
Simone M. Stuenzi
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research,
14473 Potsdam, Germany
Department of Geography, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, 12489 Berlin,
Germany
Julia Boike
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research,
14473 Potsdam, Germany
Department of Geography, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, 12489 Berlin,
Germany
Moritz Langer
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research,
14473 Potsdam, Germany
Department of Geography, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, 12489 Berlin,
Germany
Josias Gloy
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research,
14473 Potsdam, Germany
Ulrike Herzschuh
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research,
14473 Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Environmental Sciences and Geography, University of Potsdam,
14476 Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, 14476
Potsdam, Germany
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Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5695–5716, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5695-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5695-2022, 2022
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We present data which were collected on expeditions to the northeast of the Russian Federation. One table describes the 226 locations we visited during those expeditions, and the other describes 40 289 trees which we recorded at these locations. We found out that important information on the forest cannot be predicted precisely from satellites. Thus, for anyone interested in distant forests, it is important to go to there and take measurements or use data (as presented here).
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Despite rapidly intensifying wildfire seasons in Siberian boreal forests, little is known about long-term relationships between changes in vegetation and shifts in wildfire activity. Using lake sediment proxies, we reconstruct such environmental changes over the past 10,800 years in Central Yakutia. We find that a more open forest may facilitate increased amounts of vegetation burning. The present-day dense larch forest might yet be mediating the current climate-driven wildfire intensification.
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Biogeosciences, 18, 4185–4209, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4185-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4185-2021, 2021
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Biogeosciences, 18, 3343–3366, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3343-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3343-2021, 2021
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In the light of climate changes in subarctic regions, notable general increase in above-ground biomass for the past 15 years (2000 to 2017) was estimated along a tundra–taiga gradient of central Chukotka (Russian Far East). The greatest increase occurred in the northern taiga in the areas of larch closed-canopy forest expansion with Cajander larch as a main contributor. For the estimations, we used field data (taxa-separated plant biomass, 2018) and upscaled it based on Landsat satellite data.
Simone Maria Stuenzi, Julia Boike, William Cable, Ulrike Herzschuh, Stefan Kruse, Luidmila A. Pestryakova, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Sebastian Westermann, Evgenii S. Zakharov, and Moritz Langer
Biogeosciences, 18, 343–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-343-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-343-2021, 2021
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Boreal forests in eastern Siberia are an essential component of global climate patterns. We use a physically based model and field measurements to study the interactions between forests, permanently frozen ground and the atmosphere. We find that forests exert a strong control on the thermal state of permafrost through changing snow cover dynamics and altering the surface energy balance, through absorbing most of the incoming solar radiation and suppressing below-canopy turbulent fluxes.
Heike H. Zimmermann, Kathleen R. Stoof-Leichsenring, Stefan Kruse, Juliane Müller, Ruediger Stein, Ralf Tiedemann, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Ocean Sci., 16, 1017–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1017-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1017-2020, 2020
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This study targets high-resolution, diatom-specific sedimentary ancient DNA using a DNA metabarcoding approach. Diatom DNA has been preserved with substantial taxonomic richness in the eastern Fram Strait over the past 30 000 years with taxonomic composition being dominated by cold-water and sea-ice-associated diatoms. Taxonomic reorganisations took place after the Last Glacial Maximum and after the Younger Dryas. Peak proportions of pennate diatoms might indicate past sea-ice presence.
Stefan Kruse, Alexander Gerdes, Nadja J. Kath, Laura S. Epp, Kathleen R. Stoof-Leichsenring, Luidmila A. Pestryakova, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Biogeosciences, 16, 1211–1224, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1211-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1211-2019, 2019
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How fast might the arctic treeline in northern central Siberia migrate northwards under current global warming? To answer this, we newly parameterized dispersal processes in the individual-based and spatially explicit model LAVESI-WIND based on parentage analysis. Simulation results show that northernmost open forest stands are migrating at an unexpectedly slow rate into tundra. We conclude that the treeline currently lags behind the strong warming and will remain slow in the upcoming decades.
Stefan Kruse, Alexander Gerdes, Nadja J. Kath, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4451–4467, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4451-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4451-2018, 2018
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It is of major interest to estimate feedbacks of arctic ecosystems to global warming in the upcoming decades. However, the speed of this response is driven by the potential of species to migrate and the timing and spatial scale for this is rather uncertain. To close this knowledge gap, we updated a very detailed vegetation model by including seed and pollen dispersal driven by wind speed and direction. The new model can substantially help in unveiling the important drivers of migration dynamics.
Philip Meister, Anne Alexandre, Hannah Bailey, Philip Barker, Boris K. Biskaborn, Ellie Broadman, Rosine Cartier, Bernhard Chapligin, Martine Couapel, Jonathan R. Dean, Bernhard Diekmann, Poppy Harding, Andrew C. G. Henderson, Armand Hernandez, Ulrike Herzschuh, Svetlana S. Kostrova, Jack Lacey, Melanie J. Leng, Andreas Lücke, Anson W. Mackay, Eniko Katalin Magyari, Biljana Narancic, Cécile Porchier, Gunhild Rosqvist, Aldo Shemesh, Corinne Sonzogni, George E. A. Swann, Florence Sylvestre, and Hanno Meyer
Clim. Past, 20, 363–392, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-363-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-363-2024, 2024
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This paper presents the first comprehensive compilation of diatom oxygen isotope records in lake sediments (δ18OBSi), supported by lake basin parameters. We infer the spatial and temporal coverage of δ18OBSi records and discuss common hemispheric trends on centennial and millennial timescales. Key results are common patterns for hydrologically open lakes in Northern Hemisphere extratropical regions during the Holocene corresponding to known climatic epochs, i.e. the Holocene Thermal Maximum.
Victoria R. Dutch, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Oliver Sonnentag, Gabriel Hould Gosselin, Melody Sandells, Chris Derksen, Branden Walker, Gesa Meyer, Richard Essery, Richard Kelly, Phillip Marsh, Julia Boike, and Matteo Detto
Biogeosciences, 21, 825–841, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-825-2024, 2024
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We undertake a sensitivity study of three different parameters on the simulation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during the snow-covered non-growing season at an Arctic tundra site. Simulations are compared to eddy covariance measurements, with near-zero NEE simulated despite observed CO2 release. We then consider how to parameterise the model better in Arctic tundra environments on both sub-seasonal timescales and cumulatively throughout the snow-covered non-growing season.
Moritz Langer, Jan Nitzbon, Brian Groenke, Lisa-Marie Assmann, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Simone Maria Stuenzi, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 18, 363–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-363-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-363-2024, 2024
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Using a model that can simulate the evolution of Arctic permafrost over centuries to millennia, we find that post-industrialization permafrost warming has three "hotspots" in NE Canada, N Alaska, and W Siberia. The extent of near-surface permafrost has decreased substantially since 1850, with the largest area losses occurring in the last 50 years. The simulations also show that volcanic eruptions have in some cases counteracted the loss of near-surface permafrost for a few decades.
Soraya Kaiser, Julia Boike, Guido Grosse, and Moritz Langer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-393, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-393, 2024
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Arctic warming, leading to permafrost degradation, poses primary threats to infrastructure and secondary ecological hazards from possible infrastructure failure. Our study created a comprehensive Alaska inventory combining various data sources with which we improved infrastructure classification and data on contaminated sites. This resource is presented as a GeoPackage allowing planning of infrastructure damages and possible implications for Arctic communities facing permafrost challenges.
Jennika Hammar, Inge Grünberg, Steven V. Kokelj, Jurjen van der Sluijs, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 17, 5357–5372, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5357-2023, 2023
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Roads on permafrost have significant environmental effects. This study assessed the Inuvik to Tuktoyaktuk Highway (ITH) in Canada and its impact on snow accumulation, albedo and snowmelt timing. Our findings revealed that snow accumulation increased by up to 36 m from the road, 12-day earlier snowmelt within 100 m due to reduced albedo, and altered snowmelt patterns in seemingly undisturbed areas. Remote sensing aids in understanding road impacts on permafrost.
Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Michele Magni, Fanny Brun, Joel Fiddes, Yanbin Lei, Philip Kraaijenbrink, Tamara Mathys, Moritz Langer, Simon Allen, and Walter W. Immerzeel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4409–4436, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, 2023
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Across the Tibetan Plateau, many large lakes have been changing level during the last decades as a response to climate change. In high-mountain environments, water fluxes from the land to the lakes are linked to the ground temperature of the land and to the energy fluxes between the ground and the atmosphere, which are modified by climate change. With a numerical model, we test how these water and energy fluxes have changed over the last decades and how they influence the lake level variations.
Frederieke Miesner, William Lambert Cable, Pier Paul Overduin, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-149, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-149, 2023
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The temperature in the sediment below Arctic lakes determines the stability of the permafrost and microbial activity. However, measurements are scarce because of the remoteness. We present a robust and portable device to fill this gap. Test campaigns have demonstrated its utility in a range of environments during winter and summer. The measured temperatures show a great variability within and across locations. The data can be used to validate models and estimate potential emissions.
Amelie Stieg, Boris K. Biskaborn, Ulrike Herzschuh, Jens Strauss, Luidmila Pestryakova, and Hanno Meyer
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-85, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-85, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
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Siberia is impacted by recent climate warming and experiences extreme hydroclimate events. We present a 220 year long sub-decadal stable oxygen isotope record of diatoms from Lake Khamra. Our analysis identifies winter precipitation as the key process impacting the isotope variability, highlighting two extreme dry periods. These two events were found to coincide with significant changes in lake internal conditions and increased wildfire activity in the region.
Juditha Aga, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 4179–4206, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, 2023
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This study presents a new model scheme for simulating ice segregation and thaw consolidation in permafrost environments, depending on ground properties and climatic forcing. It is embedded in the CryoGrid community model, a land surface model for the terrestrial cryosphere. We describe the model physics and functionalities, followed by a model validation and a sensitivity study of controlling factors.
Tabea Rettelbach, Ingmar Nitze, Inge Grünberg, Jennika Hammar, Simon Schäffler, Daniel Hein, Matthias Gessner, Tilman Bucher, Jörg Brauchle, Jörg Hartmann, Torsten Sachs, Julia Boike, and Guido Grosse
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-193, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-193, 2023
Preprint under review for ESSD
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Permafrost landscapes in the Arctic are rapidly changing due to climate warming. We here publish aerial images and elevation models with very high spatial detail that help study these landscapes in northwestern Canada and Alaska. The images were collected using the Modular Aerial Camera System (MACS). This dataset has significant implications for understanding permafrost landscape dynamics in response to climate change. It is publicly available for further research.
Brian Groenke, Moritz Langer, Jan Nitzbon, Sebastian Westermann, Guillermo Gallego, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 17, 3505–3533, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023, 2023
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It is now well known from long-term temperature measurements that Arctic permafrost, i.e., ground that remains continuously frozen for at least 2 years, is warming in response to climate change. Temperature, however, only tells half of the story. In this study, we use computer modeling to better understand how the thawing and freezing of water in the ground affects the way permafrost responds to climate change and what temperature trends can and cannot tell us about how permafrost is changing.
Ulrike Herzschuh, Thomas Böhmer, Manuel Chevalier, Raphaël Hébert, Anne Dallmeyer, Chenzhi Li, Xianyong Cao, Odile Peyron, Larisa Nazarova, Elena Y. Novenko, Jungjae Park, Natalia A. Rudaya, Frank Schlütz, Lyudmila S. Shumilovskikh, Pavel E. Tarasov, Yongbo Wang, Ruilin Wen, Qinghai Xu, and Zhuo Zheng
Clim. Past, 19, 1481–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1481-2023, 2023
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A mismatch between model- and proxy-based Holocene climate change may partially originate from the poor spatial coverage of climate reconstructions. Here we investigate quantitative reconstructions of mean annual temperature and annual precipitation from 1908 pollen records in the Northern Hemisphere. Trends show strong latitudinal patterns and differ between (sub-)continents. Our work contributes to a better understanding of the global mean.
Zoé Rehder, Thomas Kleinen, Lars Kutzbach, Victor Stepanenko, Moritz Langer, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 20, 2837–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, 2023
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We use a new model to investigate how methane emissions from Arctic ponds change with warming. We find that emissions increase substantially. Under annual temperatures 5 °C above present temperatures, pond methane emissions are more than 3 times higher than now. Most of this increase is caused by an increase in plant productivity as plants provide the substrate microbes used to produce methane. We conclude that vegetation changes need to be included in predictions of pond methane emissions.
Ulrike Herzschuh, Thomas Böhmer, Chenzhi Li, Manuel Chevalier, Raphaël Hébert, Anne Dallmeyer, Xianyong Cao, Nancy H. Bigelow, Larisa Nazarova, Elena Y. Novenko, Jungjae Park, Odile Peyron, Natalia A. Rudaya, Frank Schlütz, Lyudmila S. Shumilovskikh, Pavel E. Tarasov, Yongbo Wang, Ruilin Wen, Qinghai Xu, and Zhuo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2235–2258, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2235-2023, 2023
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Climate reconstruction from proxy data can help evaluate climate models. We present pollen-based reconstructions of mean July temperature, mean annual temperature, and annual precipitation from 2594 pollen records from the Northern Hemisphere, using three reconstruction methods (WA-PLS, WA-PLS_tailored, and MAT). Since no global or hemispheric synthesis of quantitative precipitation changes are available for the Holocene so far, this dataset will be of great value to the geoscientific community.
Manuel Chevalier, Anne Dallmeyer, Nils Weitzel, Chenzhi Li, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Ulrike Herzschuh, Xianyong Cao, and Andreas Hense
Clim. Past, 19, 1043–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1043-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1043-2023, 2023
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Data–data and data–model vegetation comparisons are commonly based on comparing single vegetation estimates. While this approach generates good results on average, reducing pollen assemblages to single single plant functional type (PFT) or biome estimates can oversimplify the vegetation signal. We propose using a multivariate metric, the Earth mover's distance (EMD), to include more details about the vegetation structure when performing such comparisons.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Almudena García-García, Gerhard Krinner, Moritz Langer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Jan Nitzbon, Jian Peng, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Wim Thiery, Inne Vanderkelen, and Tonghua Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 609–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, 2023
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Climate change is caused by the accumulated heat in the Earth system, with the land storing the second largest amount of this extra heat. Here, new estimates of continental heat storage are obtained, including changes in inland-water heat storage and permafrost heat storage in addition to changes in ground heat storage. We also argue that heat gains in all three components should be monitored independently of their magnitude due to heat-dependent processes affecting society and ecosystems.
Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Johanna Scheer, Kristoffer Aalstad, Juditha Aga, Nitin Chaudhary, Bernd Etzelmüller, Simon Filhol, Andreas Kääb, Cas Renette, Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Robin B. Zweigel, Léo Martin, Sarah Morard, Matan Ben-Asher, Michael Angelopoulos, Julia Boike, Brian Groenke, Frederieke Miesner, Jan Nitzbon, Paul Overduin, Simone M. Stuenzi, and Moritz Langer
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2607–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023, 2023
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The CryoGrid community model is a new tool for simulating ground temperatures and the water and ice balance in cold regions. It is a modular design, which makes it possible to test different schemes to simulate, for example, permafrost ground in an efficient way. The model contains tools to simulate frozen and unfrozen ground, snow, glaciers, and other massive ice bodies, as well as water bodies.
Boris K. Biskaborn, Amy Forster, Gregor Pfalz, Lyudmila A. Pestryakova, Kathleen Stoof-Leichsenring, Jens Strauss, Tim Kröger, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Biogeosciences, 20, 1691–1712, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1691-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1691-2023, 2023
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Lake sediment from the Russian Arctic was studied for microalgae and organic matter chemistry dated back to the last glacial 28 000 years. Species and chemistry responded to environmental changes such as the Younger Dryas cold event and the Holocene thermal maximum. Organic carbon accumulation correlated with rates of microalgae deposition only during warm episodes but not during the cold glacial.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
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Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
Ngai-Ham Chan, Moritz Langer, Bennet Juhls, Tabea Rettelbach, Paul Overduin, Kimberly Huppert, and Jean Braun
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 259–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-259-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-259-2023, 2023
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Arctic river deltas influence how nutrients and soil organic carbon, carried by sediments from the Arctic landscape, are retained or released into the Arctic Ocean. Under climate change, the deltas themselves and their ecosystems are becoming more vulnerable. We build upon previous models to reproduce for the first time an important feature ubiquitous to Arctic deltas and simulate its future under climate warming. This can impact the future of Arctic deltas and the carbon release they moderate.
Simeon Lisovski, Alexandra Runge, Iuliia Shevtsova, Nele Landgraf, Anne Morgenstern, Ronald Reagan Okoth, Matthias Fuchs, Nikolay Lashchinskiy, Carl Stadie, Alison Beamish, Ulrike Herzschuh, Guido Grosse, and Birgit Heim
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-36, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-36, 2023
Preprint under review for ESSD
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The Lena Delta is the largest river delta in the Arctic, and represents a biodiversity hotspot. Here, we describe multiple field datasets and a detailed habitat classification map for the Lena Delta. We present context and methods of these openly available datasets and show how they can improve our understanding of the rapidly changing Arctic tundra system.
Furong Li, Marie-José Gaillard, Xianyong Cao, Ulrike Herzschuh, Shinya Sugita, Jian Ni, Yan Zhao, Chengbang An, Xiaozhong Huang, Yu Li, Hongyan Liu, Aizhi Sun, and Yifeng Yao
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 95–112, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-95-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-95-2023, 2023
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The objective of this study is present the first gridded and temporally continuous quantitative plant-cover reconstruction for temperate and northern subtropical China over the last 12 millennia. The reconstructions are based on 94 pollen records and include estimates for 27 plant taxa, 10 plant functional types, and 3 land-cover types. The dataset is suitable for palaeoclimate modelling and the evaluation of simulated past vegetation cover and anthropogenic land-cover change from models.
Timon Miesner, Ulrike Herzschuh, Luidmila A. Pestryakova, Mareike Wieczorek, Evgenii S. Zakharov, Alexei I. Kolmogorov, Paraskovya V. Davydova, and Stefan Kruse
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5695–5716, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5695-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5695-2022, 2022
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We present data which were collected on expeditions to the northeast of the Russian Federation. One table describes the 226 locations we visited during those expeditions, and the other describes 40 289 trees which we recorded at these locations. We found out that important information on the forest cannot be predicted precisely from satellites. Thus, for anyone interested in distant forests, it is important to go to there and take measurements or use data (as presented here).
Femke van Geffen, Birgit Heim, Frederic Brieger, Rongwei Geng, Iuliia A. Shevtsova, Luise Schulte, Simone M. Stuenzi, Nadine Bernhardt, Elena I. Troeva, Luidmila A. Pestryakova, Evgenii S. Zakharov, Bringfried Pflug, Ulrike Herzschuh, and Stefan Kruse
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4967–4994, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4967-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4967-2022, 2022
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SiDroForest is an attempt to remedy data scarcity regarding vegetation data in the circumpolar region, whilst providing adjusted and labeled data for machine learning and upscaling practices. SiDroForest contains four datasets that include SfM point clouds, individually labeled trees, synthetic tree crowns and labeled Sentinel-2 patches that provide insights into the vegetation composition and forest structure of two important vegetation transition zones in Siberia, Russia.
Victoria R. Dutch, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Melody Sandells, Chris Derksen, Branden Walker, Gabriel Hould Gosselin, Oliver Sonnentag, Richard Essery, Richard Kelly, Phillip Marsh, Joshua King, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 16, 4201–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4201-2022, 2022
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Measurements of the properties of the snow and soil were compared to simulations of the Community Land Model to see how well the model represents snow insulation. Simulations underestimated snow thermal conductivity and wintertime soil temperatures. We test two approaches to reduce the transfer of heat through the snowpack and bring simulated soil temperatures closer to measurements, with an alternative parameterisation of snow thermal conductivity being more appropriate.
Jan Nitzbon, Damir Gadylyaev, Steffen Schlüter, John Maximilian Köhne, Guido Grosse, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 16, 3507–3515, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3507-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3507-2022, 2022
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The microstructure of permafrost soils contains clues to its formation and its preconditioning to future change. We used X-ray computed tomography (CT) to measure the composition of a permafrost drill core from Siberia. By combining CT with laboratory measurements, we determined the the proportions of pore ice, excess ice, minerals, organic matter, and gas contained in the core at an unprecedented resolution. Our work demonstrates the potential of CT to study permafrost properties and processes.
Lutz Beckebanze, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Josefine Walz, Christian Wille, David Holl, Manuel Helbig, Julia Boike, Torsten Sachs, and Lars Kutzbach
Biogeosciences, 19, 3863–3876, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3863-2022, 2022
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In this study, we present observations of lateral and vertical carbon fluxes from a permafrost-affected study site in the Russian Arctic. From this dataset we estimate the net ecosystem carbon balance for this study site. We show that lateral carbon export has a low impact on the net ecosystem carbon balance during the complete study period (3 months). Nevertheless, our results also show that lateral carbon export can exceed vertical carbon uptake at the beginning of the growing season.
Ulrike Herzschuh, Chenzhi Li, Thomas Böhmer, Alexander K. Postl, Birgit Heim, Andrei A. Andreev, Xianyong Cao, Mareike Wieczorek, and Jian Ni
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3213–3227, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3213-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3213-2022, 2022
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Pollen preserved in environmental archives such as lake sediments and bogs are extensively used for reconstructions of past vegetation and climate. Here we present LegacyPollen 1.0, a dataset of 2831 fossil pollen records from all over the globe that were collected from publicly available databases. We harmonized the names of the pollen taxa so that all datasets can be jointly investigated. LegacyPollen 1.0 is available as an open-access dataset.
Ramesh Glückler, Rongwei Geng, Lennart Grimm, Izabella Baisheva, Ulrike Herzschuh, Kathleen R. Stoof-Leichsenring, Stefan Kruse, Andrei Andreev, Luidmila Pestryakova, and Elisabeth Dietze
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-395, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-395, 2022
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Despite rapidly intensifying wildfire seasons in Siberian boreal forests, little is known about long-term relationships between changes in vegetation and shifts in wildfire activity. Using lake sediment proxies, we reconstruct such environmental changes over the past 10,800 years in Central Yakutia. We find that a more open forest may facilitate increased amounts of vegetation burning. The present-day dense larch forest might yet be mediating the current climate-driven wildfire intensification.
Noah D. Smith, Eleanor J. Burke, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Inge H. J. Althuizen, Julia Boike, Casper Tai Christiansen, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas Friborg, Hanna Lee, Heather Rumbold, Rachael H. Turton, Sebastian Westermann, and Sarah E. Chadburn
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3603–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, 2022
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The Arctic has large areas of small mounds that are caused by ice lifting up the soil. Snow blown by wind gathers in hollows next to these mounds, insulating them in winter. The hollows tend to be wetter, and thus the soil absorbs more heat in summer. The warm wet soil in the hollows decomposes, releasing methane. We have made a model of this, and we have tested how it behaves and whether it looks like sites in Scandinavia and Siberia. Sometimes we get more methane than a model without mounds.
Chenzhi Li, Alexander K. Postl, Thomas Böhmer, Xianyong Cao, Andrew M. Dolman, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1331–1343, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1331-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1331-2022, 2022
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Here we present a global chronology framework of 2831 palynological records, including globally harmonized chronologies covering up to 273 000 years. A comparison with the original chronologies reveals a major improvement according to our assessment. Our chronology framework and revised chronologies will interest a broad geoscientific community, as it provides the opportunity to make use in synthesis studies of, for example, pollen-based vegetation and climate change.
Anna-Maria Virkkala, Susan M. Natali, Brendan M. Rogers, Jennifer D. Watts, Kathleen Savage, Sara June Connon, Marguerite Mauritz, Edward A. G. Schuur, Darcy Peter, Christina Minions, Julia Nojeim, Roisin Commane, Craig A. Emmerton, Mathias Goeckede, Manuel Helbig, David Holl, Hiroki Iwata, Hideki Kobayashi, Pasi Kolari, Efrén López-Blanco, Maija E. Marushchak, Mikhail Mastepanov, Lutz Merbold, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Torsten Sachs, Oliver Sonnentag, Masahito Ueyama, Carolina Voigt, Mika Aurela, Julia Boike, Gerardo Celis, Namyi Chae, Torben R. Christensen, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Sigrid Dengel, Han Dolman, Colin W. Edgar, Bo Elberling, Eugenie Euskirchen, Achim Grelle, Juha Hatakka, Elyn Humphreys, Järvi Järveoja, Ayumi Kotani, Lars Kutzbach, Tuomas Laurila, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Yojiro Matsuura, Gesa Meyer, Mats B. Nilsson, Steven F. Oberbauer, Sang-Jong Park, Roman Petrov, Anatoly S. Prokushkin, Christopher Schulze, Vincent L. St. Louis, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Juha-Pekka Tuovinen, William Quinton, Andrej Varlagin, Donatella Zona, and Viacheslav I. Zyryanov
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 179–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-179-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-179-2022, 2022
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The effects of climate warming on carbon cycling across the Arctic–boreal zone (ABZ) remain poorly understood due to the relatively limited distribution of ABZ flux sites. Fortunately, this flux network is constantly increasing, but new measurements are published in various platforms, making it challenging to understand the ABZ carbon cycle as a whole. Here, we compiled a new database of Arctic–boreal CO2 fluxes to help facilitate large-scale assessments of the ABZ carbon cycle.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Stephan J. Lorenz, Michael Sigl, Matthew Toohey, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 17, 2481–2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2481-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2481-2021, 2021
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Using the comprehensive Earth system model, MPI-ESM1.2, we explore the global Holocene vegetation changes and interpret them in terms of the Holocene climate change. The model results reveal that most of the Holocene vegetation transitions seen outside the high northern latitudes can be attributed to modifications in the intensity of the global summer monsoons.
Katharina Jentzsch, Julia Boike, and Thomas Foken
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 7291–7296, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7291-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7291-2021, 2021
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Very small CO2 fluxes are measured at night in Arctic regions. If the sensible heat flux is not close to zero under these conditions, the WPL correction will take values on the order of the flux. A special quality control is proposed for these cases.
Stuart A. Vyse, Ulrike Herzschuh, Gregor Pfalz, Lyudmila A. Pestryakova, Bernhard Diekmann, Norbert Nowaczyk, and Boris K. Biskaborn
Biogeosciences, 18, 4791–4816, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4791-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4791-2021, 2021
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Lakes act as important stores of organic carbon and inorganic sediment material. This study provides a first investigation into carbon and sediment accumulation and storage within an Arctic glacial lake from Far East Russia. It shows that major shifts are related to palaeoclimate variation that affects the development of the lake and its surrounding catchment. Spatial differences to other lake systems from other regions may reflect variability in processes controlled by latitude and altitude.
Léo C. P. Martin, Jan Nitzbon, Johanna Scheer, Kjetil S. Aas, Trond Eiken, Moritz Langer, Simon Filhol, Bernd Etzelmüller, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 15, 3423–3442, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021, 2021
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It is important to understand how permafrost landscapes respond to climate changes because their thaw can contribute to global warming. We investigate how a common permafrost morphology degrades using both field observations of the surface elevation and numerical modeling. We show that numerical models accounting for topographic changes related to permafrost degradation can reproduce the observed changes in nature and help us understand how parameters such as snow influence this phenomenon.
Ramesh Glückler, Ulrike Herzschuh, Stefan Kruse, Andrei Andreev, Stuart Andrew Vyse, Bettina Winkler, Boris K. Biskaborn, Luidmila Pestryakova, and Elisabeth Dietze
Biogeosciences, 18, 4185–4209, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4185-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4185-2021, 2021
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Data about past fire activity are very sparse in Siberia. This study presents a first high-resolution record of charcoal particles from lake sediments in boreal eastern Siberia. It indicates that current levels of charcoal accumulation are not unprecedented. While a recent increase in reconstructed fire frequency coincides with rising temperatures and increasing human activity, vegetation composition does not seem to be a major driver behind changes in the fire regime in the past two millennia.
Lydia Stolpmann, Caroline Coch, Anne Morgenstern, Julia Boike, Michael Fritz, Ulrike Herzschuh, Kathleen Stoof-Leichsenring, Yury Dvornikov, Birgit Heim, Josefine Lenz, Amy Larsen, Katey Walter Anthony, Benjamin Jones, Karen Frey, and Guido Grosse
Biogeosciences, 18, 3917–3936, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3917-2021, 2021
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Our new database summarizes DOC concentrations of 2167 water samples from 1833 lakes in permafrost regions across the Arctic to provide insights into linkages between DOC and environment. We found increasing lake DOC concentration with decreasing permafrost extent and higher DOC concentrations in boreal permafrost sites compared to tundra sites. Our study shows that DOC concentration depends on the environmental properties of a lake, especially permafrost extent, ecoregion, and vegetation.
Iuliia Shevtsova, Ulrike Herzschuh, Birgit Heim, Luise Schulte, Simone Stünzi, Luidmila A. Pestryakova, Evgeniy S. Zakharov, and Stefan Kruse
Biogeosciences, 18, 3343–3366, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3343-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3343-2021, 2021
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In the light of climate changes in subarctic regions, notable general increase in above-ground biomass for the past 15 years (2000 to 2017) was estimated along a tundra–taiga gradient of central Chukotka (Russian Far East). The greatest increase occurred in the northern taiga in the areas of larch closed-canopy forest expansion with Cajander larch as a main contributor. For the estimations, we used field data (taxa-separated plant biomass, 2018) and upscaled it based on Landsat satellite data.
Juditha Undine Schmidt, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Florence Magnin, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 15, 2491–2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2491-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2491-2021, 2021
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This study presents rock surface temperatures (RSTs) of steep high-Arctic rock walls on Svalbard from 2016 to 2020. The field data show that coastal cliffs are characterized by warmer RSTs than inland locations during winter seasons. By running model simulations, we analyze factors leading to that effect, calculate the surface energy balance and simulate different future scenarios. Both field data and model results can contribute to a further understanding of RST in high-Arctic rock walls.
Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Hanna Lee, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Sebastian Westermann, Vladimir Romanovsky, Scott Lamoureux, Donald A. Walker, Sarah Chadburn, Erin Trochim, Lei Cai, Jan Nitzbon, Stephan Jacobi, and Moritz Langer
The Cryosphere, 15, 2451–2471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021, 2021
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Climate warming puts infrastructure built on permafrost at risk of failure. There is a growing need for appropriate model-based risk assessments. Here we present a modelling study and show an exemplary case of how a gravel road in a cold permafrost environment in Alaska might suffer from degrading permafrost under a scenario of intense climate warming. We use this case study to discuss the broader-scale applicability of our model for simulating future Arctic infrastructure failure.
Rebecca Rolph, Pier Paul Overduin, Thomas Ravens, Hugues Lantuit, and Moritz Langer
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-28, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-28, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Declining sea ice, larger waves, and increasing air temperatures are contributing to a rapidly eroding Arctic coastline. We simulate water levels using wind speed and direction, which are used with wave height, wave period, and sea surface temperature to drive an erosion model of a partially frozen cliff and beach. This provides a first step to include Arctic erosion in larger-scale earth system models. Simulated cumulative retreat rates agree within the same order of magnitude as observations.
Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 15, 1399–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021, 2021
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We used a numerical model to investigate how small-scale landscape heterogeneities affect permafrost thaw under climate-warming scenarios. Our results show that representing small-scale heterogeneities in the model can decide whether a landscape is water-logged or well-drained in the future. This in turn affects how fast permafrost thaws under warming. Our research emphasizes the importance of considering small-scale processes in model assessments of permafrost thaw under climate change.
Simone Maria Stuenzi, Julia Boike, William Cable, Ulrike Herzschuh, Stefan Kruse, Luidmila A. Pestryakova, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Sebastian Westermann, Evgenii S. Zakharov, and Moritz Langer
Biogeosciences, 18, 343–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-343-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-343-2021, 2021
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Boreal forests in eastern Siberia are an essential component of global climate patterns. We use a physically based model and field measurements to study the interactions between forests, permanently frozen ground and the atmosphere. We find that forests exert a strong control on the thermal state of permafrost through changing snow cover dynamics and altering the surface energy balance, through absorbing most of the incoming solar radiation and suppressing below-canopy turbulent fluxes.
Mareike Wieczorek and Ulrike Herzschuh
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3515–3528, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3515-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3515-2020, 2020
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Relative pollen productivity (RPP) estimates are used to estimate vegetation cover from pollen records. This study provides (i) a compilation of northern hemispheric RPP studies, allowing researchers to identify suitable sets for their study region and to identify data gaps for future research, and (ii) taxonomically harmonized, unified RPP sets for China, Europe, North America, and the whole Northern Hemisphere, generated from the available studies.
Basil A. S. Davis, Manuel Chevalier, Philipp Sommer, Vachel A. Carter, Walter Finsinger, Achille Mauri, Leanne N. Phelps, Marco Zanon, Roman Abegglen, Christine M. Åkesson, Francisca Alba-Sánchez, R. Scott Anderson, Tatiana G. Antipina, Juliana R. Atanassova, Ruth Beer, Nina I. Belyanina, Tatiana A. Blyakharchuk, Olga K. Borisova, Elissaveta Bozilova, Galina Bukreeva, M. Jane Bunting, Eleonora Clò, Daniele Colombaroli, Nathalie Combourieu-Nebout, Stéphanie Desprat, Federico Di Rita, Morteza Djamali, Kevin J. Edwards, Patricia L. Fall, Angelica Feurdean, William Fletcher, Assunta Florenzano, Giulia Furlanetto, Emna Gaceur, Arsenii T. Galimov, Mariusz Gałka, Iria García-Moreiras, Thomas Giesecke, Roxana Grindean, Maria A. Guido, Irina G. Gvozdeva, Ulrike Herzschuh, Kari L. Hjelle, Sergey Ivanov, Susanne Jahns, Vlasta Jankovska, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Monika Karpińska-Kołaczek, Ikuko Kitaba, Piotr Kołaczek, Elena G. Lapteva, Małgorzata Latałowa, Vincent Lebreton, Suzanne Leroy, Michelle Leydet, Darya A. Lopatina, José Antonio López-Sáez, André F. Lotter, Donatella Magri, Elena Marinova, Isabelle Matthias, Anastasia Mavridou, Anna Maria Mercuri, Jose Manuel Mesa-Fernández, Yuri A. Mikishin, Krystyna Milecka, Carlo Montanari, César Morales-Molino, Almut Mrotzek, Castor Muñoz Sobrino, Olga D. Naidina, Takeshi Nakagawa, Anne Birgitte Nielsen, Elena Y. Novenko, Sampson Panajiotidis, Nata K. Panova, Maria Papadopoulou, Heather S. Pardoe, Anna Pędziszewska, Tatiana I. Petrenko, María J. Ramos-Román, Cesare Ravazzi, Manfred Rösch, Natalia Ryabogina, Silvia Sabariego Ruiz, J. Sakari Salonen, Tatyana V. Sapelko, James E. Schofield, Heikki Seppä, Lyudmila Shumilovskikh, Normunds Stivrins, Philipp Stojakowits, Helena Svobodova Svitavska, Joanna Święta-Musznicka, Ioan Tantau, Willy Tinner, Kazimierz Tobolski, Spassimir Tonkov, Margarita Tsakiridou, Verushka Valsecchi, Oksana G. Zanina, and Marcelina Zimny
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2423–2445, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2423-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2423-2020, 2020
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The Eurasian Modern Pollen Database (EMPD) contains pollen counts and associated metadata for 8134 modern pollen samples from across the Eurasian region. The EMPD is part of, and complementary to, the European Pollen Database (EPD) which contains data on fossil pollen found in Late Quaternary sedimentary archives. The purpose of the EMPD is to provide calibration datasets and other data to support palaeoecological research on past climates and vegetation cover over the Quaternary period.
Jean-Louis Bonne, Hanno Meyer, Melanie Behrens, Julia Boike, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Benjamin Rabe, Toni Schmidt, Lutz Schönicke, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, and Martin Werner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10493–10511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10493-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10493-2020, 2020
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This study introduces 2 years of continuous near-surface in situ observations of the stable isotopic composition of water vapour in parallel with precipitation in north-eastern Siberia. We evaluate the atmospheric transport of moisture towards the region of our observations with simulations constrained by meteorological reanalyses and use this information to interpret the temporal variations of the vapour isotopic composition from seasonal to synoptic timescales.
Heike H. Zimmermann, Kathleen R. Stoof-Leichsenring, Stefan Kruse, Juliane Müller, Ruediger Stein, Ralf Tiedemann, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Ocean Sci., 16, 1017–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1017-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1017-2020, 2020
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This study targets high-resolution, diatom-specific sedimentary ancient DNA using a DNA metabarcoding approach. Diatom DNA has been preserved with substantial taxonomic richness in the eastern Fram Strait over the past 30 000 years with taxonomic composition being dominated by cold-water and sea-ice-associated diatoms. Taxonomic reorganisations took place after the Last Glacial Maximum and after the Younger Dryas. Peak proportions of pennate diatoms might indicate past sea-ice presence.
Inge Grünberg, Evan J. Wilcox, Simon Zwieback, Philip Marsh, and Julia Boike
Biogeosciences, 17, 4261–4279, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4261-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4261-2020, 2020
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Based on topsoil temperature data for different vegetation types at a low Arctic tundra site, we found large small-scale variability. Winter temperatures were strongly influenced by vegetation through its effects on snow. Summer temperatures were similar below most vegetation types and not consistently related to late summer permafrost thaw depth. Given that vegetation type defines the relationship between winter and summer soil temperature and thaw depth, it controls permafrost vulnerability.
Elisabeth Dietze, Kai Mangelsdorf, Andrei Andreev, Cornelia Karger, Laura T. Schreuder, Ellen C. Hopmans, Oliver Rach, Dirk Sachse, Volker Wennrich, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 16, 799–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-799-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-799-2020, 2020
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Long-term climate change impacts on fire, vegetation and permafrost in the Arctic are uncertain. Here, we show the high potential of organic compounds from low-temperature biomass burning to serve as proxies for surface fires in lake deposits. During warm periods of the last 430 000 years, surface fires are closely linked to the larch taiga forest with its moss–lichen ground vegetation that isolates the permafrost. They have reduced in warm–wet, spruce–dominated and cool–dry steppe environments.
Xianyong Cao, Fang Tian, Andrei Andreev, Patricia M. Anderson, Anatoly V. Lozhkin, Elena Bezrukova, Jian Ni, Natalia Rudaya, Astrid Stobbe, Mareike Wieczorek, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 119–135, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-119-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-119-2020, 2020
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Pollen percentages in spectra cannot be utilized to indicate past plant abundance directly because of the different pollen productivities among plants. In this paper, we applied relative pollen productivity estimates (PPEs) to calibrate plant abundances during the last 40 kyr using pollen counts from 203 pollen spectra in northern Asia. Results indicate the vegetation are generally stable during the Holocene and that climate change is the primary factor.
Xianyong Cao, Fang Tian, Furong Li, Marie-José Gaillard, Natalia Rudaya, Qinghai Xu, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 15, 1503–1536, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1503-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1503-2019, 2019
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The high-quality pollen records (collected from lakes and peat bogs) of the last 40 ka cal BP form north Asia are homogenized and the plant abundance signals are calibrated by the modern relative pollen productivity estimates. Calibrated plant abundances for each site are generally consistent with in situ modern vegetation, and vegetation changes within the regions are characterized by minor changes in the abundance of major taxa rather than by invasions of new taxa during the last 40 ka cal BP.
Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Sebastian Westermann, Léo Martin, Kjetil Schanke Aas, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 13, 1089–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1089-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1089-2019, 2019
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We studied the stability of ice wedges (massive bodies of ground ice in permafrost) under recent climatic conditions in the Lena River delta of northern Siberia. For this we used a novel modelling approach that takes into account lateral transport of heat, water, and snow and the subsidence of the ground surface due to melting of ground ice. We found that wetter conditions have a destabilizing effect on the ice wedges and associated our simulation results with observations from the study area.
Stefan Kruse, Alexander Gerdes, Nadja J. Kath, Laura S. Epp, Kathleen R. Stoof-Leichsenring, Luidmila A. Pestryakova, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Biogeosciences, 16, 1211–1224, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1211-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1211-2019, 2019
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How fast might the arctic treeline in northern central Siberia migrate northwards under current global warming? To answer this, we newly parameterized dispersal processes in the individual-based and spatially explicit model LAVESI-WIND based on parentage analysis. Simulation results show that northernmost open forest stands are migrating at an unexpectedly slow rate into tundra. We conclude that the treeline currently lags behind the strong warming and will remain slow in the upcoming decades.
Julia Boike, Jan Nitzbon, Katharina Anders, Mikhail Grigoriev, Dmitry Bolshiyanov, Moritz Langer, Stephan Lange, Niko Bornemann, Anne Morgenstern, Peter Schreiber, Christian Wille, Sarah Chadburn, Isabelle Gouttevin, Eleanor Burke, and Lars Kutzbach
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 261–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-261-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-261-2019, 2019
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Long-term observational data are available from the Samoylov research site in northern Siberia, where meteorological parameters, energy balance, and subsurface observations have been recorded since 1998. This paper presents the temporal data set produced between 2002 and 2017, explaining the instrumentation, calibration, processing, and data quality control. Furthermore, we present a merged dataset of the parameters, which were measured from 1998 onwards.
David Holl, Christian Wille, Torsten Sachs, Peter Schreiber, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Lutz Beckebanze, Moritz Langer, Julia Boike, Eva-Maria Pfeiffer, Irina Fedorova, Dimitry Y. Bolshianov, Mikhail N. Grigoriev, and Lars Kutzbach
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 221–240, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-221-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-221-2019, 2019
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We present a multi-annual time series of land–atmosphere carbon dioxide fluxes measured in situ with the eddy covariance technique in the Siberian Arctic. In arctic permafrost regions, climate–carbon feedbacks are amplified. Therefore, increased efforts to better represent these regions in global climate models have been made in recent years. Up to now, the available database of in situ measurements from the Arctic was biased towards Alaska and records from the Eurasian Arctic were scarce.
Kjetil S. Aas, Léo Martin, Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Julia Boike, Hanna Lee, Terje K. Berntsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 13, 591–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, 2019
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Many permafrost landscapes contain large amounts of excess ground ice, which gives rise to small-scale elevation differences. This results in lateral fluxes of snow, water, and heat, which we investigate and show how it can be accounted for in large-scale models. Using a novel model technique which can account for these differences, we are able to model both the current state of permafrost and how these landscapes change as permafrost thaws, in a way that could not previously be achieved.
Gerhard Krinner, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Mark Flanner, Stefan Hagemann, Martyn Clark, Alex Hall, Helmut Rott, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Hyungjun Kim, Cécile B. Ménard, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad Thackeray, Libo Wang, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Paul Bartlett, Julia Boike, Aaron Boone, Frédérique Chéruy, Jeanne Colin, Matthias Cuntz, Yongjiu Dai, Bertrand Decharme, Jeff Derry, Agnès Ducharne, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Charles Fierz, Josephine Ghattas, Yeugeniy Gusev, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Rachel Law, Dave Lawrence, Weiping Li, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Martin Ménégoz, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, Masashi Niwano, John Pomeroy, Mark S. Raleigh, Gerd Schaedler, Vladimir Semenov, Tanya G. Smirnova, Tobias Stacke, Ulrich Strasser, Sean Svenson, Dmitry Turkov, Tao Wang, Nander Wever, Hua Yuan, Wenyan Zhou, and Dan Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5027–5049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, 2018
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This paper provides an overview of a coordinated international experiment to determine the strengths and weaknesses in how climate models treat snow. The models will be assessed at point locations using high-quality reference measurements and globally using satellite-derived datasets. How well climate models simulate snow-related processes is important because changing snow cover is an important part of the global climate system and provides an important freshwater resource for human use.
Isabelle Gouttevin, Moritz Langer, Henning Löwe, Julia Boike, Martin Proksch, and Martin Schneebeli
The Cryosphere, 12, 3693–3717, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3693-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3693-2018, 2018
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Snow insulates the ground from the cold air in the Arctic winter, majorly affecting permafrost. This insulation depends on snow characteristics and is poorly quantified. Here, we characterize it at a carbon-rich permafrost site, using a recent technique that retrieves the 3-D structure of snow and its thermal properties. We adapt a snowpack model enabling the simulation of this insulation over a whole winter. We estimate that local snow variations induce up to a 6 °C spread in soil temperatures.
Stefan Kruse, Alexander Gerdes, Nadja J. Kath, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4451–4467, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4451-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4451-2018, 2018
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It is of major interest to estimate feedbacks of arctic ecosystems to global warming in the upcoming decades. However, the speed of this response is driven by the potential of species to migrate and the timing and spatial scale for this is rather uncertain. To close this knowledge gap, we updated a very detailed vegetation model by including seed and pollen dispersal driven by wind speed and direction. The new model can substantially help in unveiling the important drivers of migration dynamics.
Julia Boike, Inge Juszak, Stephan Lange, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Pier Paul Overduin, Kurt Roth, Olaf Ippisch, Niko Bornemann, Lielle Stern, Isabelle Gouttevin, Ernst Hauber, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 355–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-355-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-355-2018, 2018
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A 20-year data record from the Bayelva site at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, is presented on meteorology, energy balance components, surface and subsurface observations. This paper presents the data set, instrumentation, calibration, processing and data quality control. The data show that mean annual, summer and winter soil temperature data from shallow to deeper depths have been warming over the period of record, indicating the degradation and loss of permafrost at this site.
Simon Zwieback, Steven V. Kokelj, Frank Günther, Julia Boike, Guido Grosse, and Irena Hajnsek
The Cryosphere, 12, 549–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-549-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-549-2018, 2018
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We analyse elevation losses at thaw slumps, at which icy sediments are exposed. As ice requires a large amount of energy to melt, one would expect that mass wasting is governed by the available energy. However, we observe very little mass wasting in June, despite the ample energy supply. Also, in summer, mass wasting is not always energy limited. This highlights the importance of other processes, such as the formation of a protective veneer, in shaping mass wasting at sub-seasonal scales.
Kristoffer Aalstad, Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Julia Boike, and Laurent Bertino
The Cryosphere, 12, 247–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-247-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-247-2018, 2018
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We demonstrate how snow cover data from satellites can be used to constrain estimates of snow distributions at sites in the Arctic. In this effort, we make use of data assimilation to combine the information contained in the snow cover data with a simple snow model. By comparing our snow distribution estimates to independent observations, we find that this method performs favorably. Being modular, this method could be applied to other areas as a component of a larger reanalysis system.
Sarah E. Chadburn, Gerhard Krinner, Philipp Porada, Annett Bartsch, Christian Beer, Luca Belelli Marchesini, Julia Boike, Altug Ekici, Bo Elberling, Thomas Friborg, Gustaf Hugelius, Margareta Johansson, Peter Kuhry, Lars Kutzbach, Moritz Langer, Magnus Lund, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Shushi Peng, Ko Van Huissteden, Tao Wang, Sebastian Westermann, Dan Zhu, and Eleanor J. Burke
Biogeosciences, 14, 5143–5169, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017, 2017
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Earth system models (ESMs) are our main tools for understanding future climate. The Arctic is important for the future carbon cycle, particularly due to the large carbon stocks in permafrost. We evaluated the performance of the land component of three major ESMs at Arctic tundra sites, focusing on the fluxes and stocks of carbon.
We show that the next steps for model improvement are to better represent vegetation dynamics, to include mosses and to improve below-ground carbon cycle processes.
Sabrina Marx, Katharina Anders, Sofia Antonova, Inga Beck, Julia Boike, Philip Marsh, Moritz Langer, and Bernhard Höfle
Earth Surf. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2017-49, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2017-49, 2017
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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Global climate warming causes permafrost to warm and thaw, and, consequently, to release the carbon into the atmosphere. Terrestrial laser scanning is evaluated and current methods are extended in the context of monitoring subsidence in Arctic permafrost regions. The extracted information is important to gain a deeper understanding of permafrost-related subsidence processes and provides highly accurate ground-truth data which is necessary for further developing area-wide monitoring methods.
Sebastian Westermann, Maria Peter, Moritz Langer, Georg Schwamborn, Lutz Schirrmeister, Bernd Etzelmüller, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 11, 1441–1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1441-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1441-2017, 2017
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We demonstrate a remote-sensing-based scheme estimating the evolution of ground temperature and active layer thickness by means of a ground thermal model. A comparison to in situ observations from the Lena River delta in Siberia indicates that the model is generally capable of reproducing the annual temperature regime and seasonal thawing of the ground. The approach could hence be a first step towards remote detection of ground thermal conditions in permafrost areas.
Sina Muster, Kurt Roth, Moritz Langer, Stephan Lange, Fabio Cresto Aleina, Annett Bartsch, Anne Morgenstern, Guido Grosse, Benjamin Jones, A. Britta K. Sannel, Ylva Sjöberg, Frank Günther, Christian Andresen, Alexandra Veremeeva, Prajna R. Lindgren, Frédéric Bouchard, Mark J. Lara, Daniel Fortier, Simon Charbonneau, Tarmo A. Virtanen, Gustaf Hugelius, Juri Palmtag, Matthias B. Siewert, William J. Riley, Charles D. Koven, and Julia Boike
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 317–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-317-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-317-2017, 2017
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Waterbodies are abundant in Arctic permafrost lowlands. Most waterbodies are ponds with a surface area smaller than 100 x 100 m. The Permafrost Region Pond and Lake Database (PeRL) for the first time maps ponds as small as 10 x 10 m. PeRL maps can be used to document changes both by comparing them to historical and future imagery. The distribution of waterbodies in the Arctic is important to know in order to manage resources in the Arctic and to improve climate predictions in the Arctic.
Romy Zibulski, Felix Wesener, Heinz Wilkes, Birgit Plessen, Luidmila A. Pestryakova, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Biogeosciences, 14, 1617–1630, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1617-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1617-2017, 2017
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We investigated variations of isotopic and biochemical parameters in arctic mosses. We were able to differentiate habitat groups of mosses (classified by moisture gradient) by elemental content and isotopic ratios (δ13C, δ15N). Some species showed intraspecific variability in their isotopic composition along the moisture gradient. Furthermore n-alkanes showed interesting patterns for species identification.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Jian Ni, Xianyong Cao, Yongbo Wang, Nils Fischer, Madlene Pfeiffer, Liya Jin, Vyacheslav Khon, Sebastian Wagner, Kerstin Haberkorn, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 13, 107–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-107-2017, 2017
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The vegetation distribution in eastern Asia is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate–vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient climate simulations.
Heike Hildegard Zimmermann, Elena Raschke, Laura Saskia Epp, Kathleen Rosmarie Stoof-Leichsenring, Georg Schwamborn, Lutz Schirrmeister, Pier Paul Overduin, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Biogeosciences, 14, 575–596, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-575-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-575-2017, 2017
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Organic matter stored in permafrost will start decomposing due to climate warming. To better understand its composition in ice-rich Yedoma, we analyzed ancient sedimentary DNA, pollen and non-pollen palynomorphs throughout an 18.9 m long permafrost core. The combination of both proxies allow an interpretation both of regional floristic changes and of the local environmental conditions at the time of deposition.
Liv Heinecke, Steffen Mischke, Karsten Adler, Anja Barth, Boris K. Biskaborn, Birgit Plessen, Ingmar Nitze, Gerhard Kuhn, Ilhomjon Rajabov, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-34, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-34, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The climate history of the Pamir Mountains (Tajikistan) during the last ~29 kyr was investigated using sediments from Lake Karakul as environmental archive. The inferred lake level was highest from the Late Glacial to the early Holocene and lake changes were mainly coupled to climate change. We conclude that the joint influence of Westerlies and Indian Monsoon during the early Holocene caused comparatively moist conditions, while dominating Westerlies yielded dry conditions since 6.7 cal kyr BP.
Fabian Beermann, Moritz Langer, Sebastian Wetterich, Jens Strauss, Julia Boike, Claudia Fiencke, Lutz Schirrmeister, Eva-Maria Pfeiffer, and Lars Kutzbach
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-117, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-117, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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This paper aims to quantify pools of inorganic nitrogen in permafrost soils of arctic Siberia and to estimate annual release rates of this nitrogen due to permafrost thaw. We report for the first time stores of inorganic nitrogen in Siberian permafrost soils. These nitrogen stores are important as permafrost thaw can mobilize substantial amounts of nitrogen, potentially changing the nutrient balance of these soils and representing a significant non-carbon permafrost climate feedback.
J. Boike, C. Georgi, G. Kirilin, S. Muster, K. Abramova, I. Fedorova, A. Chetverova, M. Grigoriev, N. Bornemann, and M. Langer
Biogeosciences, 12, 5941–5965, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5941-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5941-2015, 2015
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We show that lakes in northern Siberia are very efficient with respect to energy absorption and mixing using measurements as well as numerical modeling. We show that (i) the lakes receive substantial energy for warming from net short-wave radiation; (ii) convective mixing occurs beneath the ice cover, follow beneath the ice cover, following ice break-up, summer, and fall (iii) modeling suggests that the annual mean net heat flux across the bottom sediment boundary is approximately zero.
I. Beck, R. Ludwig, M. Bernier, T. Strozzi, and J. Boike
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 409–421, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-409-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-409-2015, 2015
S. E. Chadburn, E. J. Burke, R. L. H. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. M. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
The Cryosphere, 9, 1505–1521, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, 2015
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In this paper we use a global land-surface model to study the dynamics of Arctic permafrost. We examine the impact of new and improved processes in the model, namely soil depth and resolution, organic soils, moss and the representation of snow. These improvements make the simulated soil temperatures and thaw depth significantly more realistic. Simulations under future climate scenarios show that permafrost thaws more slowly in the new model version, but still a large amount is lost by 2100.
A. Ekici, S. Chadburn, N. Chaudhary, L. H. Hajdu, A. Marmy, S. Peng, J. Boike, E. Burke, A. D. Friend, C. Hauck, G. Krinner, M. Langer, P. A. Miller, and C. Beer
The Cryosphere, 9, 1343–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1343-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1343-2015, 2015
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This paper compares the performance of different land models in estimating soil thermal regimes at distinct cold region landscape types. Comparing models with different processes reveal the importance of surface insulation (snow/moss layer) and soil internal processes (heat/water transfer). The importance of model processes also depend on site conditions such as high/low snow cover, dry/wet soil types.
T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Grosse, J. Strauss, L. Schirrmeister, A. Morgenstern, S. Schaphoff, M. Meinshausen, and J. Boike
Biogeosciences, 12, 3469–3488, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015, 2015
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We have modelled the carbon release from thawing permafrost soils under various scenarios of future warming. Our results suggests that up to about 140Pg of carbon could be released under strong warming by end of the century. We have shown that abrupt thaw processes under thermokarst lakes can unlock large amounts of perennially frozen carbon stored in deep deposits (which extend many metres into the soil).
S. Chadburn, E. Burke, R. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1493–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, 2015
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Permafrost, ground that is frozen for 2 or more years, is found extensively in the Arctic. It stores large quantities of carbon, which may be released under climate warming, so it is important to include it in climate models. Here we improve the representation of permafrost in a climate model land-surface scheme, both in the numerical representation of soil and snow, and by adding the effects of organic soils and moss. Site simulations show significantly improved soil temperature and thaw depth.
M. Fritz, T. Opel, G. Tanski, U. Herzschuh, H. Meyer, A. Eulenburg, and H. Lantuit
The Cryosphere, 9, 737–752, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-737-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-737-2015, 2015
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Ground ice in permafrost has not, until now, been considered to be a source of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and other elements that are important for ecosystems and carbon cycling.
Ice wedges in the Arctic Yedoma region hold 45.2 Tg DOC (Tg = 10^12g), 33.6 Tg DIC and a freshwater reservoir of 4200 km³.
Leaching of terrestrial organic matter is the most relevant process of DOC sequestration into ground ice.
J. Strauss, L. Schirrmeister, K. Mangelsdorf, L. Eichhorn, S. Wetterich, and U. Herzschuh
Biogeosciences, 12, 2227–2245, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2227-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2227-2015, 2015
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Climatic warming is affecting permafrost, including decomposition of organic matter (OM). However, quantitative data for the quality of OM and its availability for decomposition is limited. We analyzed the quality of OM in late Pleistocene (Yedoma) and Holocene (thermokarst) deposits. A lack of depth trends reveals a constant quality of OM showing that permafrost acts like a freezer, preserving OM quality. This OM will be susceptible to decomposition under climatic warming.
B. Aichner, S. J. Feakins, J. E. Lee, U. Herzschuh, and X. Liu
Clim. Past, 11, 619–633, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-619-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-619-2015, 2015
A. Dallmeyer, M. Claussen, N. Fischer, K. Haberkorn, S. Wagner, M. Pfeiffer, L. Jin, V. Khon, Y. Wang, and U. Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 11, 305–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-305-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-305-2015, 2015
M. Langer, S. Westermann, K. Walter Anthony, K. Wischnewski, and J. Boike
Biogeosciences, 12, 977–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-977-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-977-2015, 2015
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Methane production rates of Arctic ponds during the freezing period within a typical tundra landscape in northern Siberia are presented. Production rates were inferred by inverse modeling based on measured methane concentrations in the ice cover. Results revealed marked differences in early winter methane production among ponds showing different stages of shore degradation. This suggests that shore erosion can increase methane production of Arctic ponds by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude.
I. Fedorova, A. Chetverova, D. Bolshiyanov, A. Makarov, J. Boike, B. Heim, A. Morgenstern, P. P. Overduin, C. Wegner, V. Kashina, A. Eulenburg, E. Dobrotina, and I. Sidorina
Biogeosciences, 12, 345–363, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-345-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-345-2015, 2015
J. Lüers, S. Westermann, K. Piel, and J. Boike
Biogeosciences, 11, 6307–6322, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6307-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6307-2014, 2014
S. Yi, K. Wischnewski, M. Langer, S. Muster, and J. Boike
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1671–1689, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1671-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1671-2014, 2014
A. A. Andreev, P. E. Tarasov, V. Wennrich, E. Raschke, U. Herzschuh, N. R. Nowaczyk, J. Brigham-Grette, and M. Melles
Clim. Past, 10, 1017–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1017-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1017-2014, 2014
Y. Wang, U. Herzschuh, L. S. Shumilovskikh, S. Mischke, H. J. B. Birks, J. Wischnewski, J. Böhner, F. Schlütz, F. Lehmkuhl, B. Diekmann, B. Wünnemann, and C. Zhang
Clim. Past, 10, 21–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-21-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-21-2014, 2014
R. Zibulski, U. Herzschuh, L. A. Pestryakova, J. Wolter, S. Müller, N. Schilling, S. Wetterich, L. Schirrmeister, and F. Tian
Biogeosciences, 10, 5703–5728, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5703-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5703-2013, 2013
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Tian Gan, Gregory E. Tucker, Eric W. H. Hutton, Mark D. Piper, Irina Overeem, Albert J. Kettner, Benjamin Campforts, Julia M. Moriarty, Brianna Undzis, Ethan Pierce, and Lynn McCready
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2165–2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2165-2024, 2024
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This study presents the design, implementation, and application of the CSDMS Data Components. The case studies demonstrate that the Data Components provide a consistent way to access heterogeneous datasets from multiple sources, and to seamlessly integrate them with various models for Earth surface process modeling. The Data Components support the creation of open data–model integration workflows to improve the research transparency and reproducibility.
Jérémy Bernard, Erwan Bocher, Matthieu Gousseff, François Leconte, and Elisabeth Le Saux Wiederhold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2077–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2077-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2077-2024, 2024
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Geographical features may have a considerable effect on local climate. The local climate zone (LCZ) system proposed by Stewart and Oke (2012) is seen as a standard approach for classifying any zone according to a set of geographic indicators. While many methods already exist to map the LCZ, only a few tools are openly and freely available. We present the algorithm implemented in GeoClimate software to identify the LCZ of any place in the world using OpenStreetMap data.
Thomas Extier, Thibaut Caley, and Didier M. Roche
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2117–2139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2117-2024, 2024
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Stable water isotopes are used to infer changes in the hydrological cycle for different time periods in climatic archive and climate models. We present the implementation of the δ2H and δ17O water isotopes in the coupled climate model iLOVECLIM and calculate the d- and 17O-excess. Results of a simulation under preindustrial conditions show that the model correctly reproduces the water isotope distribution in the atmosphere and ocean in comparison to data and other global circulation models.
Kirsten L. Findell, Zun Yin, Eunkyo Seo, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Nathan P. Arnold, Nathaniel Chaney, Megan D. Fowler, Meng Huang, David M. Lawrence, Po-Lun Ma, and Joseph A. Santanello Jr.
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1869–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1869-2024, 2024
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We outline a request for sub-daily data to accurately capture the process-level connections between land states, surface fluxes, and the boundary layer response. This high-frequency model output will allow for more direct comparison with observational field campaigns on process-relevant timescales, enable demonstration of inter-model spread in land–atmosphere coupling processes, and aid in targeted identification of sources of deficiencies and opportunities for improvement of the models.
Marlene Klockmann, Udo von Toussaint, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1765–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1765-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1765-2024, 2024
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Reconstructions of climate variability before the observational period rely on climate proxies and sophisticated statistical models to link the proxy information and climate variability. Existing models tend to underestimate the true magnitude of variability, especially if the proxies contain non-climatic noise. We present and test a promising new framework for climate-index reconstructions, based on Gaussian processes, which reconstructs robust variability estimates from noisy and sparse data.
Aaron A. Naidoo-Bagwell, Fanny M. Monteiro, Katharine R. Hendry, Scott Burgan, Jamie D. Wilson, Ben A. Ward, Andy Ridgwell, and Daniel J. Conley
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1729–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1729-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1729-2024, 2024
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As an extension to the EcoGEnIE 1.0 Earth system model that features a diverse plankton community, EcoGEnIE 1.1 includes siliceous plankton diatoms and also considers their impact on biogeochemical cycles. With updates to existing nutrient cycles and the introduction of the silicon cycle, we see improved model performance relative to observational data. Through a more functionally diverse plankton community, the new model enables more comprehensive future study of ocean ecology.
Martin Butzin, Ying Ye, Christoph Völker, Özgür Gürses, Judith Hauck, and Peter Köhler
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1709–1727, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1709-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1709-2024, 2024
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In this paper we describe the implementation of the carbon isotopes 13C and 14C into the marine biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1-REcoM3 and present results of long-term test simulations. Our model results are largely consistent with marine carbon isotope reconstructions for the pre-anthropogenic period, but also exhibit some discrepancies.
Sven Karsten, Hagen Radtke, Matthias Gröger, Ha T. M. Ho-Hagemann, Hossein Mashayekh, Thomas Neumann, and H. E. Markus Meier
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1689–1708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1689-2024, 2024
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This paper describes the development of a regional Earth System Model for the Baltic Sea region. In contrast to conventional coupling approaches, the presented model includes a flux calculator operating on a common exchange grid. This approach automatically ensures a locally consistent treatment of fluxes and simplifies the exchange of model components. The presented model can be used for various scientific questions, such as studies of natural variability and ocean–atmosphere interactions.
Skyler Graap and Colin M. Zarzycki
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1627–1650, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1627-2024, 2024
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A key target for improving climate models is how low, bright clouds are predicted over tropical oceans, since they have important consequences for the Earth's energy budget. A climate model has been updated to improve the physical realism of the treatment of how momentum is moved up and down in the atmosphere. By comparing this updated model to real-world observations from balloon launches, it can be shown to more accurately depict atmospheric structure in trade-wind areas close to the Equator.
Marika M. Holland, Cecile Hannay, John Fasullo, Alexandra Jahn, Jennifer E. Kay, Michael Mills, Isla R. Simpson, William Wieder, Peter Lawrence, Erik Kluzek, and David Bailey
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1585–1602, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024, 2024
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Climate evolves in response to changing forcings, as prescribed in simulations. Models and forcings are updated over time to reflect new understanding. This makes it difficult to attribute simulation differences to either model or forcing changes. Here we present new simulations which enable the separation of model structure and forcing influence between two widely used simulation sets. Results indicate a strong influence of aerosol emission uncertainty on historical climate.
Rongyun Tang, Mingzhou Jin, Jiafu Mao, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Anping Chen, and Yulong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1525–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1525-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1525-2024, 2024
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Carbon-rich boreal peatlands are at risk of burning. The reproducibility and predictability of rare peatland fire events are investigated by constructing a two-step error-correcting machine learning framework to tackle such complex systems. Fire occurrence and impacts are highly predictable with our approach. Factor-controlling simulations revealed that temperature, moisture, and freeze–thaw cycles control boreal peatland fires, indicating thermal impacts on causing peat fires.
Allison B. Collow, Peter R. Colarco, Arlindo M. da Silva, Virginie Buchard, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Sampa Das, Ravi Govindaraju, Dongchul Kim, and Valentina Aquila
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1443–1468, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1443-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1443-2024, 2024
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The GOCART aerosol module within the Goddard Earth Observing System recently underwent a major refactoring and update to the representation of physical processes. Code changes that were included in GOCART Second Generation (GOCART-2G) are documented, and we establish a benchmark simulation that is to be used for future development of the system. The 4-year benchmark simulation was evaluated using in situ and spaceborne measurements to develop a baseline and prioritize future development.
Oksana Guba, Mark A. Taylor, Peter A. Bosler, Christopher Eldred, and Peter H. Lauritzen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1429–1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1429-2024, 2024
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We want to reduce errors in the moist energy budget in numerical atmospheric models. We study a few common assumptions and mechanisms that are used for the moist physics. Some mechanisms are more consistent with the underlying equations. Separately, we study how assumptions about models' thermodynamics affect the modeled energy of precipitation. We also explain how to conserve energy in the moist physics for nonhydrostatic models.
Konstantin Aiteew, Jarno Rouhiainen, Claas Nendel, and René Dechow
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1349–1385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1349-2024, 2024
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This study evaluated the biogeochemical model MONICA and its performance in simulating soil organic carbon changes. MONICA can reproduce plant growth, carbon and nitrogen dynamics, soil water and temperature. The model results were compared with five established carbon turnover models. With the exception of certain sites, adequate reproduction of soil organic carbon stock change rates was achieved. The MONICA model was capable of performing similar to or even better than the other models.
Jianfeng Li, Kai Zhang, Taufiq Hassan, Shixuan Zhang, Po-Lun Ma, Balwinder Singh, Qiyang Yan, and Huilin Huang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1327–1347, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1327-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1327-2024, 2024
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By comparing E3SM simulations with and without regional refinement, we find that model horizontal grid spacing considerably affects the simulated aerosol mass budget, aerosol–cloud interactions, and the effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols. The study identifies the critical physical processes strongly influenced by model resolution. It also highlights the benefit of applying regional refinement in future modeling studies at higher or even convection-permitting resolutions.
Bernd Funke, Thierry Dudok de Wit, Ilaria Ermolli, Margit Haberreiter, Doug Kinnison, Daniel Marsh, Hilde Nesse, Annika Seppälä, Miriam Sinnhuber, and Ilya Usoskin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1217–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1217-2024, 2024
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We outline a road map for the preparation of a solar forcing dataset for the upcoming Phase 7 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7), considering the latest scientific advances made in the reconstruction of solar forcing and in the understanding of climate response while also addressing the issues that were raised during CMIP6.
Fiona Raphaela Spuler, Jakob Benjamin Wessel, Edward Comyn-Platt, James Varndell, and Chiara Cagnazzo
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1249–1269, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1249-2024, 2024
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Before using climate models to study the impacts of climate change, bias adjustment is commonly applied to the models to ensure that they correspond with observations at a local scale. However, this can introduce undesirable distortions into the climate model. In this paper, we present an open-source python package called ibicus to enable the comparison and detailed evaluation of bias adjustment methods, facilitating their transparent and rigorous application.
Donghui Xu, Gautam Bisht, Zeli Tan, Chang Liao, Tian Zhou, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1197–1215, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1197-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1197-2024, 2024
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We aim to disentangle the hydrological and hydraulic controls on streamflow variability in a fully coupled earth system model. We found that calibrating only one process (i.e., traditional calibration procedure) will result in unrealistic parameter values and poor performance of the water cycle, while the simulated streamflow is improved. To address this issue, we further proposed a two-step calibration procedure to reconcile the impacts from hydrological and hydraulic processes on streamflow.
Douglas McNeall, Eddy Robertson, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1059–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1059-2024, 2024
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We can run simulations of the land surface and carbon cycle, using computer models to help us understand and predict climate change and its impacts. These simulations are not perfect reproductions of the real land surface, and that can make them less effective tools. We use new statistical and computational techniques to help us understand how different our models are from the real land surface, how to make them more realistic, and how well we can simulate past and future climate.
Genevieve L. Clow, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Michael N. Levy, Keith Lindsay, and Jennifer E. Kay
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 975–995, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-975-2024, 2024
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Satellite observations of chlorophyll allow us to study marine phytoplankton on a global scale; yet some of these observations are missing due to clouds and other issues. To investigate the impact of missing data, we developed a satellite simulator for chlorophyll in an Earth system model. We found that missing data can impact the global mean chlorophyll by nearly 20 %. The simulated observations provide a more direct comparison to real-world data and can be used to improve model validation.
Jiateng Guo, Xuechuang Xu, Luyuan Wang, Xulei Wang, Lixin Wu, Mark Jessell, Vitaliy Ogarko, Zhibin Liu, and Yufei Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 957–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-957-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-957-2024, 2024
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This study proposes a semi-supervised learning algorithm using pseudo-labels for 3D geological modelling. We establish a 3D geological model using borehole data from a complex real urban local survey area in Shenyang and make an uncertainty analysis of this model. The method effectively expands the sample space, which is suitable for geomodelling and uncertainty analysis from boreholes. The modelling results perform well in terms of spatial morphology and geological semantics.
Shih-Wei Wei, Mariusz Pagowski, Arlindo da Silva, Cheng-Hsuan Lu, and Bo Huang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 795–813, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-795-2024, 2024
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This study describes the modeling system and the evaluation results for the first prototype version of a global aerosol reanalysis product at NOAA, prototype NOAA Aerosol ReAnalysis version 1.0 (pNARA v1.0). We evaluated pNARA v1.0 against independent datasets and compared it with other reanalyses. We identified deficiencies in the system (both in the forecast model and in the data assimilation system) and the uncertainties that exist in our reanalysis.
Emma Howard, Chun-Hsu Su, Christian Stassen, Rajashree Naha, Harvey Ye, Acacia Pepler, Samuel S. Bell, Andrew J. Dowdy, Simon O. Tucker, and Charmaine Franklin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 731–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-731-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-731-2024, 2024
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The BARPA-R modelling configuration has been developed to produce high-resolution climate hazard projections within the Australian region. When using boundary driving data from quasi-observed historical conditions, BARPA-R shows good performance with errors generally on par with reanalysis products. BARPA-R also captures trends, known modes of climate variability, large-scale weather processes, and multivariate relationships.
Deepeshkumar Jain, Suryachandra A. Rao, Ramu A. Dandi, Prasanth A. Pillai, Ankur Srivastava, Maheswar Pradhan, and Kiran V. Gangadharan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 709–729, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-709-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-709-2024, 2024
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The present paper discusses and evaluates the new Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System model (MMCFS) version 2.0 which upgrades the currently operational MMCFS v1.0 at the Indian Meteorological Department, India. The individual model components have been substantially upgraded independently by their respective scientific groups. MMCFS v2.0 includes these upgrades in the operational coupled model. The new model shows significant skill improvement in simulating the Indian monsoon.
Nathan Beech, Thomas Rackow, Tido Semmler, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 529–543, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-529-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-529-2024, 2024
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Cost-reducing modeling strategies are applied to high-resolution simulations of the Southern Ocean in a changing climate. They are evaluated with respect to observations and traditional, lower-resolution modeling methods. The simulations effectively reproduce small-scale ocean flows seen in satellite data and are largely consistent with traditional model simulations after 4 °C of warming. Small-scale flows are found to intensify near bathymetric features and to become more variable.
Karl E. Taylor
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 415–430, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-415-2024, 2024
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Remapping gridded data in a way that preserves the conservative properties of the climate system can be essential in coupling model components and for accurate assessment of the system’s energy and mass constituents. Remapping packages capable of handling a wide variety of grids can, for some common grids, calculate remapping weights that are somewhat inaccurate. Correcting for these errors, guidelines are provided to ensure conservation when the weights are used in practice.
Pedro M. M. Soares, Frederico Johannsen, Daniela C. A. Lima, Gil Lemos, Virgílio A. Bento, and Angelina Bushenkova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 229–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-229-2024, 2024
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This study uses deep learning (DL) to downscale global climate models for the Iberian Peninsula. Four DL architectures were evaluated and trained using historical climate data and then used to downscale future projections from the global models. These show agreement with the original models and reveal a warming of 2 ºC to 6 ºC, along with decreasing precipitation in western Iberia after 2040. This approach offers key regional climate change information for adaptation strategies in the region.
Abhiraj Bishnoi, Olaf Stein, Catrin I. Meyer, René Redler, Norbert Eicker, Helmuth Haak, Lars Hoffmann, Daniel Klocke, Luis Kornblueh, and Estela Suarez
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 261–273, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-261-2024, 2024
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We enabled the weather and climate model ICON to run in a high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean setup on the JUWELS supercomputer, where the ocean and the model I/O runs on the CPU Cluster, while the atmosphere is running simultaneously on GPUs. Compared to a simulation performed on CPUs only, our approach reduces energy consumption by 45 % with comparable runtimes. The experiments serve as preparation for efficient computing of kilometer-scale climate models on future supercomputing systems.
Diana R. Gergel, Steven B. Malevich, Kelly E. McCusker, Emile Tenezakis, Michael T. Delgado, Meredith A. Fish, and Robert E. Kopp
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 191–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-191-2024, 2024
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The freely available Global Downscaled Projections for Climate Impacts Research (GDPCIR) dataset gives researchers a new tool for studying how future climate will evolve at a local or regional level, corresponding to the latest global climate model simulations prepared as part of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report. Those simulations represent an enormous advance in quality, detail, and scope that GDPCIR translates to the local level.
Yuying Zhang, Shaocheng Xie, Yi Qin, Wuyin Lin, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Xue Zheng, Po-Lun Ma, Yun Qian, Qi Tang, Christopher R. Terai, and Meng Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 169–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-169-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-169-2024, 2024
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We performed systematic evaluation of clouds simulated in the Energy
Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2) to document model performance and understand what updates in E3SMv2 have caused changes in clouds from E3SMv1 to E3SMv2. We find that stratocumulus clouds along the subtropical west coast of continents are dramatically improved, primarily due to the retuning done in CLUBB. This study offers additional insights into clouds simulated in E3SMv2 and will benefit future E3SM developments.
Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2) to document model performance and understand what updates in E3SMv2 have caused changes in clouds from E3SMv1 to E3SMv2. We find that stratocumulus clouds along the subtropical west coast of continents are dramatically improved, primarily due to the retuning done in CLUBB. This study offers additional insights into clouds simulated in E3SMv2 and will benefit future E3SM developments.
Ting Sun, Hamidreza Omidvar, Zhenkun Li, Ning Zhang, Wenjuan Huang, Simone Kotthaus, Helen C. Ward, Zhiwen Luo, and Sue Grimmond
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 91–116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-91-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-91-2024, 2024
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For the first time, we coupled a state-of-the-art urban land surface model – Surface Urban Energy and Water Scheme (SUEWS) – with the widely-used Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, creating an open-source tool that may benefit multiple applications. We tested our new system at two UK sites and demonstrated its potential by examining how human activities in various areas of Greater London influence local weather conditions.
Katja Frieler, Jan Volkholz, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, María del Rocío Rivas López, Christian Otto, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Johanna T. Malle, Simon Treu, Christoph Menz, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Yannick Rousseau, Reg A. Watson, Charles Stock, Xiao Liu, Ryan Heneghan, Derek Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Tingting Wang, Fubao Sun, Inga J. Sauer, Johannes Koch, Inne Vanderkelen, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Jida Wang, Fangfang Yao, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, and Michel Bechtold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024
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Our paper provides an overview of all observational climate-related and socioeconomic forcing data used as input for the impact model evaluation and impact attribution experiments within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The experiments are designed to test our understanding of observed changes in natural and human systems and to quantify to what degree these changes have already been induced by climate change.
Jinkai Tan, Qiqiao Huang, and Sheng Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 53–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-53-2024, 2024
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This study presents a deep learning architecture, multi-scale feature fusion (MFF), to improve the forecast skills of precipitations especially for heavy precipitations. MFF uses multi-scale receptive fields so that the movement features of precipitation systems are well captured. MFF uses the mechanism of discrete probability to reduce uncertainties and forecast errors so that heavy precipitations are produced.
Robert E. Kopp, Gregory G. Garner, Tim H. J. Hermans, Shantenu Jha, Praveen Kumar, Alexander Reedy, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Matteo Turilli, Tamsin L. Edwards, Jonathan M. Gregory, George Koubbe, Anders Levermann, Andre Merzky, Sophie Nowicki, Matthew D. Palmer, and Chris Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7461–7489, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, 2023
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Future sea-level rise projections exhibit multiple forms of uncertainty, all of which must be considered by scientific assessments intended to inform decision-making. The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) is a new software package intended to support assessments of global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level rise. An early version of FACTS supported the development of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report sea-level projections.
Gregory Duveiller, Mark Pickering, Joaquin Muñoz-Sabater, Luca Caporaso, Souhail Boussetta, Gianpaolo Balsamo, and Alessandro Cescatti
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7357–7373, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7357-2023, 2023
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Some of our best tools to describe the state of the land system, including the intensity of heat waves, have a problem. The model currently assumes that the number of leaves in ecosystems always follows the same cycle. By using satellite observations of when leaves are present, we show that capturing the yearly changes in this cycle is important to avoid errors in estimating surface temperature. We show that this has strong implications for our capacity to describe heat waves across Europe.
Neil C. Swart, Torge Martin, Rebecca Beadling, Jia-Jia Chen, Christopher Danek, Matthew H. England, Riccardo Farneti, Stephen M. Griffies, Tore Hattermann, Judith Hauck, F. Alexander Haumann, André Jüling, Qian Li, John Marshall, Morven Muilwijk, Andrew G. Pauling, Ariaan Purich, Inga J. Smith, and Max Thomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7289–7309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, 2023
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Current climate models typically do not include full representation of ice sheets. As the climate warms and the ice sheets melt, they add freshwater to the ocean. This freshwater can influence climate change, for example by causing more sea ice to form. In this paper we propose a set of experiments to test the influence of this missing meltwater from Antarctica using multiple different climate models.
Christina Asmus, Peter Hoffmann, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Jürgen Böhner, and Diana Rechid
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7311–7337, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7311-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7311-2023, 2023
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Irrigation modifies the land surface and soil conditions. The effects can be quantified using numerical climate models. Our study introduces a new irrigation parameterization, which simulates the effects of irrigation on land, atmosphere, and vegetation. We applied the parameterization and evaluated the results in terms of their physical consistency. We found an improvement in the model results in the 2 m temperature representation in comparison with observational data for our study.
Nanhong Xie, Tijian Wang, Xiaodong Xie, Xu Yue, Filippo Giorgi, Qian Zhang, Danyang Ma, Rong Song, Baiyao Xu, Shu Li, Bingliang Zhuang, Mengmeng Li, Min Xie, Natalya Andreeva Kilifarska, Georgi Gadzhev, and Reneta Dimitrova
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1733, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1733, 2023
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For the first time, we coupled a regional climate chemistry model RegCM-Chem with a dynamic vegetation model YIBs to create a regional climate-chemistry-ecology model RegCM-Chem-YIBs. We applied it to simulate climatic, chemical and ecological parameters in East Asia and fully validated it on a variety of observational data. The research results show that RegCM-Chem-YIBs model is a valuable tool for studying terrestrial carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change in regional scale.
Michael Meier and Christof Bigler
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7171–7201, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7171-2023, 2023
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We analyzed >2.3 million calibrations and 39 million projections of leaf coloration models, considering 21 models, 5 optimization algorithms, ≥7 sampling procedures, and 26 climate scenarios. Models based on temperature, day length, and leaf unfolding performed best, especially when calibrated with generalized simulated annealing and systematically balanced or stratified samples. Projected leaf coloration shifts between −13 and +20 days by 2080–2099.
Katharina Gallmeier, J. Xavier Prochaska, Peter Cornillon, Dimitris Menemenlis, and Madolyn Kelm
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7143–7170, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7143-2023, 2023
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This paper introduces an approach to evaluate numerical models of ocean circulation. We compare the structure of satellite-derived sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTa) instances determined by a machine learning algorithm at 10–80 km scales to those output by a high-resolution MITgcm run. The simulation over much of the ocean reproduces the observed distribution of SSTa patterns well. This general agreement, alongside a few notable exceptions, highlights the potential of this approach.
Jiachen Lu, Negin Nazarian, Melissa Hart, Scott Krayenhoff, and Alberto Martilli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2811, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2811, 2023
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This study enhances urban canopy models by refining key assumptions. Simulations for various urban scenarios indicate discrepancies in turbulent transport efficiency for flow properties. We propose two modifications that involve characterizing diffusion coefficients for momentum and turbulent kinetic energy separately and introducing a physics-based "mass flux" term. These adjustments enhance the model's performance, offering more reliable temperature and surface flux estimates.
Angus Fotherby, Harold J. Bradbury, Jennifer L. Druhan, and Alexandra V. Turchyn
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7059–7074, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7059-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7059-2023, 2023
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We demonstrate how, given a simulation of fluid and rock interacting, we can emulate the system using machine learning. This means that, for a given initial condition, we can predict the final state, avoiding the simulation step once the model has been trained. We present a workflow for applying this approach to any fluid–rock simulation and showcase two applications to different fluid–rock simulations. This approach has applications for improving model development and sensitivity analyses.
Rose V. Palermo, J. Taylor Perron, Jason M. Soderblom, Samuel P. D. Birch, Alexander G. Hayes, and Andrew D. Ashton
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-223, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-223, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Models of rocky coastal erosion help us understand the controls on coastal morphology and evolution. In this paper, we present a simplified model of coastline erosion by either uniform erosion processes where coastline erosion is constant or wave-driven erosion where coastline erosion is a function of the wave power. This model can be used to evaluate how coastline changes reflect climate, sea level history, material properties, and the relative influence of different erosional processes.
Yaqi Wang, Lanning Wang, Juan Feng, Zhenya Song, Qizhong Wu, and Huaqiong Cheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6857–6873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6857-2023, 2023
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In this study, to noticeably improve precipitation simulation in steep mountains, we propose a sub-grid parameterization scheme for the topographic vertical motion in CAM5-SE to revise the original vertical velocity by adding the topographic vertical motion. The dynamic lifting effect of topography is extended from the lowest layer to multiple layers, thus improving the positive deviations of precipitation simulation in high-altitude regions and negative deviations in low-altitude regions.
Haoyue Zuo, Yonggang Liu, Gaojun Li, Zhifang Xu, Liang Zhao, Zhengtang Guo, and Yongyun Hu
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-199, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-199, 2023
Preprint under review for GMD
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Compared to the silicate weathering fluxes measured at large river basins, the current models tend to systematically overestimate the fluxes over the tropical region, which leads to an overestimation of the global total weathering flux. The most possible cause of such bias is found to be the overestimation of tropical surface erosion, which indicates that the tropical vegetation likely slows down physical erosion significantly. We propose a way of taking this effect into account in models.
Jon Seddon, Ag Stephens, Matthew S. Mizielinski, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Malcolm J. Roberts
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6689–6700, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6689-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6689-2023, 2023
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The PRIMAVERA project aimed to develop a new generation of advanced global climate models. The large volume of data generated was uploaded to a central analysis facility (CAF) and was analysed by 100 PRIMAVERA scientists there. We describe how the PRIMAVERA project used the CAF's facilities to enable users to analyse this large dataset. We believe that similar, multi-institute, big-data projects could also use a CAF to efficiently share, organise and analyse large volumes of data.
Maria-Theresia Pelz, Markus Schartau, Christopher J. Somes, Vanessa Lampe, and Thomas Slawig
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6609–6634, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6609-2023, 2023
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Kernel density estimators (KDE) approximate the probability density of a data set without the assumption of an underlying distribution. We used the solution of the diffusion equation, and a new approximation of the optimal smoothing parameter build on two pilot estimation steps, to construct such a KDE best suited for typical characteristics of geoscientific data. The resulting KDE is insensitive to noise and well resolves multimodal data structures as well as boundary-close data.
Benjamin S. Grandey, Zhi Yang Koh, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Benjamin P. Horton, Justin Dauwels, and Lock Yue Chew
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6593–6608, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6593-2023, 2023
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Global climate models are susceptible to spurious trends known as drift. Fortunately, drift can be corrected when analysing data produced by models. To explore the uncertainty associated with drift correction, we develop a new method: Monte Carlo drift correction. For historical simulations of thermosteric sea level rise, drift uncertainty is relatively large. When analysing data susceptible to drift, researchers should consider drift uncertainty.
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Short summary
We coupled established models for boreal forest (LAVESI) and permafrost dynamics (CryoGrid) in Siberia to investigate interactions of the diverse vegetation layer with permafrost soils. Our tests showed improved active layer depth estimations and newly included species growth according to their species-specific limits. We conclude that the new model system can be applied to simulate boreal forest dynamics and transitions under global warming and disturbances, expanding our knowledge.
We coupled established models for boreal forest (LAVESI) and permafrost dynamics (CryoGrid) in...