Articles | Volume 14, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5751-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5751-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
16 Sep 2021
Development and technical paper |
| 16 Sep 2021
| 16 Sep 2021
Incorporation of volcanic SO2 emissions in the Hemispheric CMAQ (H-CMAQ) version 5.2 modeling system and assessing their impacts on sulfate aerosol over the Northern Hemisphere
Syuichi Itahashi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Sustainable System Research Laboratory (SSRL), Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), 1646 Abiko, Abiko, Chiba 270–1194, Japan
Rohit Mathur
Center for Environmental Measurement and Modeling, Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA
Christian Hogrefe
Center for Environmental Measurement and Modeling, Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA
Sergey L. Napelenok
Center for Environmental Measurement and Modeling, Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA
Yang Zhang
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115, USA
Related authors
Mao Xu, Phuvasa Chanonmuang, Hiroyuki Sase, Atsuyuki Sorimachi, Syuichi Itahashi, and Kazuhide Matsuda
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2505, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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We first observed the exchange flux of ammonia over a tropical forest in Thailand. Measurements were taken during two periods in the dry season with different environmental conditions. This data improves our understanding of how ammonia behaves in forests under tropical climates and helps refine models that estimate nitrogen deposition and assess its impact across East Asia.
Phuc Thi Minh Ha, Yugo Kanaya, Kazuyo Yamaji, Syuichi Itahashi, Satoru Chatani, Takashi Sekiya, Maria Dolores Andrés Hernández, John Philip Burrows, Hans Schlager, Michael Lichtenstern, Mira Poehlker, and Bruna Holanda
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2064, 2024
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Black carbon and CO are important to climate change. EMeRGe airborne observation can identify the suitability of emission inventories used in CMAQv5.0.2 model for Asian polluted regions. GFEDv4.1s is suitable for fire emissions. Anthropogenic BC and CO emissions from Philippines (REASv2.1) are insufficient. The estimated Chinese emissions in 2018 are 0.65±0.25 TgBC, 166±65 TgCO and 12.4±4.8 PgCO2, suggesting a reduction and increment for China's BC and CO emissions in the HTAPv2.2z inventory.
Syuichi Itahashi, Baozhu Ge, Keiichi Sato, Zhe Wang, Junichi Kurokawa, Jiani Tan, Kan Huang, Joshua S. Fu, Xuemei Wang, Kazuyo Yamaji, Tatsuya Nagashima, Jie Li, Mizuo Kajino, Gregory R. Carmichael, and Zifa Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8709–8734, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8709-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8709-2021, 2021
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This study presents the detailed analysis of acid deposition over southeast Asia based on the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) phase III. Simulated wet deposition is evaluated with observation data from the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET). The difficulties of models to capture observations are related to the model performance on precipitation. The precipitation-adjusted approach was applied, and the distribution of wet deposition was successfully revised.
Baozhu Ge, Syuichi Itahashi, Keiichi Sato, Danhui Xu, Junhua Wang, Fan Fan, Qixin Tan, Joshua S. Fu, Xuemei Wang, Kazuyo Yamaji, Tatsuya Nagashima, Jie Li, Mizuo Kajino, Hong Liao, Meigen Zhang, Zhe Wang, Meng Li, Jung-Hun Woo, Junichi Kurokawa, Yuepeng Pan, Qizhong Wu, Xuejun Liu, and Zifa Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10587–10610, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10587-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10587-2020, 2020
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Performances of the simulated deposition for different reduced N (Nr) species in China were conducted with the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia. Results showed that simulated wet deposition of oxidized N was overestimated in northeastern China and underestimated in south China, but Nr was underpredicted in all regions by all models. Oxidized N has larger uncertainties than Nr, indicating that the chemical reaction process is one of the most importance factors affecting model performance.
Satoru Chatani, Hikari Shimadera, Syuichi Itahashi, and Kazuyo Yamaji
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10311–10329, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10311-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10311-2020, 2020
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Source sensitivities and apportionments of PM2.5 and ozone concentrations over Japan for 2016 were evaluated using multiple numerical techniques including BFM, HDDM, and ISAM, embedded in regional chemical transport models. Influences of stringent emission controls recently implemented in Asian countries were reflected. Differences between sensitivities and apportionments greatly helped distinguish various direct and indirect effects of emission sources on PM2.5 and ozone concentrations.
Jiani Tan, Joshua S. Fu, Gregory R. Carmichael, Syuichi Itahashi, Zhining Tao, Kan Huang, Xinyi Dong, Kazuyo Yamaji, Tatsuya Nagashima, Xuemei Wang, Yiming Liu, Hyo-Jung Lee, Chuan-Yao Lin, Baozhu Ge, Mizuo Kajino, Jia Zhu, Meigen Zhang, Hong Liao, and Zifa Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7393–7410, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7393-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7393-2020, 2020
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This study evaluated the performance of 12 chemical transport models from MICS-Asia III for predicting the particulate matter (PM) over East Asia. Four model processes were investigated as the possible reasons for model bias with measurements and the factors causing inconsistent predictions of PM from different models: (1) model inputs, (2) gas–particle conversion, (3) dust emission modules and (4) removal mechanisms (wet and dry depositions). The influence of each process was discussed.
Syuichi Itahashi, Rohit Mathur, Christian Hogrefe, and Yang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3373–3396, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3373-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3373-2020, 2020
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The state-of-the-science Community Multiscale Air Quality model extended for hemispheric applications (H-CMAQ) is used to model the trans-Pacific transport which has been recognized as a potential source of air pollutants over the US. In Part 1, modeled ozone is evaluated with observations at surface, by ozonesonde and airplane, and by satellite across the Northern Hemisphere. In addition, a newly developed air mass characterization method to estimate stratospheric intrusion is presented.
Syuichi Itahashi, Rohit Mathur, Christian Hogrefe, Sergey L. Napelenok, and Yang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3397–3413, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3397-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3397-2020, 2020
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The state-of-the-science Community Multiscale Air Quality model extended for hemispheric applications (H-CMAQ) is used to model the trans-Pacific transport which has been recognized as a potential source of air pollutants over the US. In Part 2, the higher-order decoupled direct method (HDDM) is applied to investigate the emission impacts from east Asia and the US during April 2010. Furthermore, changes in trans-Pacific transport caused by the recent emissions are examined.
Syuichi Itahashi, Baozhu Ge, Keiichi Sato, Joshua S. Fu, Xuemei Wang, Kazuyo Yamaji, Tatsuya Nagashima, Jie Li, Mizuo Kajino, Hong Liao, Meigen Zhang, Zhe Wang, Meng Li, Junichi Kurokawa, Gregory R. Carmichael, and Zifa Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2667–2693, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2667-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2667-2020, 2020
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This study gives an overview of acid deposition from the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) phase III. Wet deposition simulated by a total of nine models is evaluated with observation data from the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET). The total deposition maps comparing to emissions over Asia are presented. To seek a way to improve the model performance, ensemble approaches and the precipitation-adjusted method are discussed.
Lei Kong, Xiao Tang, Jiang Zhu, Zifa Wang, Joshua S. Fu, Xuemei Wang, Syuichi Itahashi, Kazuyo Yamaji, Tatsuya Nagashima, Hyo-Jung Lee, Cheol-Hee Kim, Chuan-Yao Lin, Lei Chen, Meigen Zhang, Zhining Tao, Jie Li, Mizuo Kajino, Hong Liao, Zhe Wang, Kengo Sudo, Yuesi Wang, Yuepeng Pan, Guiqian Tang, Meng Li, Qizhong Wu, Baozhu Ge, and Gregory R. Carmichael
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 181–202, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-181-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-181-2020, 2020
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Evaluation and uncertainty investigation of NO2, CO and NH3 modeling over China were conducted in this study using 14 chemical transport model results from MICS-Asia III. All models largely underestimated CO concentrations and showed very poor performance in reproducing the observed monthly variations of NH3 concentrations. Potential factors related to such deficiencies are investigated and discussed in this paper.
Jie Li, Tatsuya Nagashima, Lei Kong, Baozhu Ge, Kazuyo Yamaji, Joshua S. Fu, Xuemei Wang, Qi Fan, Syuichi Itahashi, Hyo-Jung Lee, Cheol-Hee Kim, Chuan-Yao Lin, Meigen Zhang, Zhining Tao, Mizuo Kajino, Hong Liao, Meng Li, Jung-Hun Woo, Jun-ichi Kurokawa, Zhe Wang, Qizhong Wu, Hajime Akimoto, Gregory R. Carmichael, and Zifa Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12993–13015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12993-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12993-2019, 2019
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This study evaluated and intercompared 14 CTMs with ozone observations in East Asia, within the framework of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for ASIA Phase III (MICS-Asia III). Potential causes of the discrepancies between model results and observation were investigated by assessing the planetary boundary layer heights, emission fluxes, dry deposition, chemistry and vertical transport among models. Finally, a multi-model estimate of pollution distributions was provided.
Lei Chen, Yi Gao, Meigen Zhang, Joshua S. Fu, Jia Zhu, Hong Liao, Jialin Li, Kan Huang, Baozhu Ge, Xuemei Wang, Yun Fat Lam, Chuan-Yao Lin, Syuichi Itahashi, Tatsuya Nagashima, Mizuo Kajino, Kazuyo Yamaji, Zifa Wang, and Jun-ichi Kurokawa
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11911–11937, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11911-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11911-2019, 2019
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Simulated aerosol concentrations from 14 CTMs within the framework of MICS-Asia III are detailedly evaluated with an extensive set of measurements in East Asia. Similarities and differences among model performances are also analyzed. Although more considerable capacities for reproducing the aerosol concentrations and their variations are shown in current CTMs than those in MICS-Asia II, more efforts are needed to reduce diversities of simulated aerosol concentrations among air quality models.
Syuichi Itahashi, Keiya Yumimoto, Itsushi Uno, Hiroshi Hayami, Shin-ichi Fujita, Yuepeng Pan, and Yuesi Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2835–2852, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2835-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2835-2018, 2018
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Ground-based observations of precipitation chemistry over China, Korea, and Japan from 2001 to 2015 were compiled, and the ratio of nitrate to non-sea-salt sulfate concentration in precipitation was analyzed to identify the long-term record of acidifying species. The variations in the ratio in East Asia corresponded to the NOx / SO2 emission ratio and the NO2 / SO2 column ratio in China. The results indicated that the acidity of precipitation shifted from sulfur to nitrogen.
Itsushi Uno, Kazuo Osada, Keiya Yumimoto, Zhe Wang, Syuichi Itahashi, Xiaole Pan, Yukari Hara, Yugo Kanaya, Shigekazu Yamamoto, and Thomas Duncan Fairlie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14181–14197, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14181-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14181-2017, 2017
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We analyzed long-term fine- and coarse-mode nitrate and related aerosols synergetic observations at Fukuoka, Japan. GEOS Chem model including dust and sea-salt acid uptake processes was used to assess the observed seasonal variation, and the impact of long-range transport from the Asian continent. A numerical model reproduced the seasonal variations of fine aerosols. For coarse nitrate, large-scale dust-nitrate outflow from China was confirmed during all dust events between January and June.
Syuichi Itahashi, Itsushi Uno, Kazuo Osada, Yusuke Kamiguchi, Shigekazu Yamamoto, Kei Tamura, Zhe Wang, Yasunori Kurosaki, and Yugo Kanaya
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3823–3843, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3823-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3823-2017, 2017
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Over East Asia, the transboundary air pollution of SO42− has been recognized. The importance of the transboundary air pollution of NO3− in winter was demonstrated in this study through synergetic ground-based observations with state-of-the-art measurements of secondary inorganic aerosols (SO42−, NO3−, and NH4+) and a regional chemical transport model analysis. This study will help to refine the understanding of transboundary heavy PM2.5 pollution in winter.
S. Itahashi, I. Uno, H. Irie, J.-I. Kurokawa, and T. Ohara
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3623–3635, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3623-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3623-2014, 2014
H. Irie, K. Yamaji, K. Ikeda, I. Uno, S. Itahashi, T. Ohara, and J. Kurokawa
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-13-14037-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-13-14037-2013, 2013
Preprint withdrawn
Anam M. Khan, Olivia E. Clifton, Jesse O. Bash, Sam Bland, Nathan Booth, Philip Cheung, Lisa Emberson, Johannes Flemming, Erick Fredj, Stefano Galmarini, Laurens Ganzeveld, Orestis Gazetas, Ignacio Goded, Christian Hogrefe, Christopher D. Holmes, László Horváth, Vincent Huijnen, Qian Li, Paul A. Makar, Ivan Mammarella, Giovanni Manca, J. William Munger, Juan L. Pérez-Camanyo, Jonathan Pleim, Limei Ran, Roberto San Jose, Donna Schwede, Sam J. Silva, Ralf Staebler, Shihan Sun, Amos P. K. Tai, Eran Tas, Timo Vesala, Tamás Weidinger, Zhiyong Wu, Leiming Zhang, and Paul C. Stoy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8613–8635, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8613-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8613-2025, 2025
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Vegetation removes tropospheric ozone through stomatal uptake, and accurately modeling the stomatal uptake of ozone is important for modeling dry deposition and air quality. We evaluated the stomatal component of ozone dry deposition modeled by atmospheric chemistry models at six sites. We find that models and observation-based estimates agree at times during the growing season at all sites, but some models overestimated the stomatal component during the dry summers at a seasonally dry site.
Mao Xu, Phuvasa Chanonmuang, Hiroyuki Sase, Atsuyuki Sorimachi, Syuichi Itahashi, and Kazuhide Matsuda
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2505, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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We first observed the exchange flux of ammonia over a tropical forest in Thailand. Measurements were taken during two periods in the dry season with different environmental conditions. This data improves our understanding of how ammonia behaves in forests under tropical climates and helps refine models that estimate nitrogen deposition and assess its impact across East Asia.
Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Christian Hogrefe, Paul A. Makar, Ummugulsun Alyuz, Jessy O. Bash, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Tim Buttler, Olivia E. Clifton, Philippe Cheung, Alma Hodzic, Richard Kranenburg, Aurelia Lupascu, Kester Momoh, Juan Luis Perez-Camaño, John Pleim, Young-Hee Ryu, Robero San Jose, Donna Schwede, Ranjeet Sokhi, and Stefano Galmarini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1091, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1091, 2025
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Deposition is a key in air quality modelling. An evaluation of the AQMEII4 models is performed prior to analysing the different deposition schemes in relation to the LULC used. Such analysis is unprecedented. Among the results, LULC masks have to be harmonised and up-to-date information used in place of outdated and too course masks. Alternatively LULC masks should be evaluated and intercom pared when multiple model results are analysed.
Paul A. Makar, Philip Cheung, Christian Hogrefe, Ayodeji Akingunola, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Jesse O. Bash, Michael D. Bell, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Tim Butler, Hazel Cathcart, Olivia E. Clifton, Alma Hodzic, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Richard Kranenburg, Aurelia Lupascu, Jason A. Lynch, Kester Momoh, Juan L. Perez-Camanyo, Jonathan Pleim, Young-Hee Ryu, Roberto San Jose, Donna Schwede, Thomas Scheuschner, Mark W. Shephard, Ranjeet S. Sokhi, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3049–3107, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3049-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3049-2025, 2025
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The large range of sulfur and nitrogen deposition estimates from air quality models results in a large range of predicted impacts. We used models and deposition diagnostics to identify the processes controlling atmospheric sulfur and nitrogen deposition variability. Controlling factors included the uptake of gases and aerosols by hydrometeors, aerosol inorganic chemistry, particle dry deposition, ammonia bidirectional fluxes, gas deposition via plant cuticles and soil, and land use data.
Christian Hogrefe, Stefano Galmarini, Paul A. Makar, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Olivia E. Clifton, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Jesse O. Bash, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Tim Butler, Philip Cheung, Alma Hodzic, Richard Kranenburg, Aurelia Lupascu, Kester Momoh, Juan Luis Perez-Camanyo, Jonathan E. Pleim, Young-Hee Ryu, Roberto San Jose, Martijn Schaap, Donna B. Schwede, and Ranjeet Sokhi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-225, 2025
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Performed under the umbrella of the fourth phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4), this study applies AQMEII4 diagnostic tools to better characterize how dry deposition removes pollutants from the atmosphere in regional-scale models. The results also strongly suggest that improvement and harmonization of the representation of land use in these models would serve the community in their future development efforts.
T. Nash Skipper, Christian Hogrefe, Barron H. Henderson, Rohit Mathur, Kristen M. Foley, and Armistead G. Russell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8373–8397, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8373-2024, 2024
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Chemical transport model simulations are combined with ozone observations to estimate the bias in ozone attributable to US anthropogenic sources and individual sources of US background ozone: natural sources, non-US anthropogenic sources, and stratospheric ozone. Results indicate a positive bias correlated with US anthropogenic emissions during summer in the eastern US and a negative bias correlated with stratospheric ozone during spring.
Phuc Thi Minh Ha, Yugo Kanaya, Kazuyo Yamaji, Syuichi Itahashi, Satoru Chatani, Takashi Sekiya, Maria Dolores Andrés Hernández, John Philip Burrows, Hans Schlager, Michael Lichtenstern, Mira Poehlker, and Bruna Holanda
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2064, 2024
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Black carbon and CO are important to climate change. EMeRGe airborne observation can identify the suitability of emission inventories used in CMAQv5.0.2 model for Asian polluted regions. GFEDv4.1s is suitable for fire emissions. Anthropogenic BC and CO emissions from Philippines (REASv2.1) are insufficient. The estimated Chinese emissions in 2018 are 0.65±0.25 TgBC, 166±65 TgCO and 12.4±4.8 PgCO2, suggesting a reduction and increment for China's BC and CO emissions in the HTAPv2.2z inventory.
David C. Wong, Jeff Willison, Jonathan E. Pleim, Golam Sarwar, James Beidler, Russ Bullock, Jerold A. Herwehe, Rob Gilliam, Daiwen Kang, Christian Hogrefe, George Pouliot, and Hosein Foroutan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7855–7866, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7855-2024, 2024
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This work describe how we linked the meteorological Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) air quality model to form a coupled modelling system. This could be used to study air quality or climate and air quality interaction at a global scale. This new model scales well in high-performance computing environments and performs well with respect to ground surface networks in terms of ozone and PM2.5.
David de la Paz, Rafael Borge, Juan Manuel de Andrés, Luis Tovar, Golam Sarwar, and Sergey L. Napelenok
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4949–4972, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4949-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4949-2024, 2024
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This source apportionment modeling study shows that around 70 % of ground-level O3 in Madrid (Spain) is transported from other regions. Nonetheless, emissions from local sources, mainly road traffic, play a significant role, especially under atmospheric stagnation. Local measures during those conditions may be able to reduce O3 peaks by up to 30 % and, thus, lessen impacts from high-O3 episodes in the Madrid metropolitan area.
Heather Simon, Christian Hogrefe, Andrew Whitehill, Kristen M. Foley, Jennifer Liljegren, Norm Possiel, Benjamin Wells, Barron H. Henderson, Lukas C. Valin, Gail Tonnesen, K. Wyat Appel, and Shannon Koplitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1855–1871, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1855-2024, 2024
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We assess observed and modeled ozone weekend–weekday differences in the USA from 2002–2019. A subset of urban areas that were NOx-saturated at the beginning of the period transitioned to NOx-limited conditions. Multiple rural areas of California were NOx-limited for the entire period but become less influenced by local day-of-week emission patterns in more recent years. The model produces more NOx-saturated conditions than the observations but captures trends in weekend–weekday ozone patterns.
Calvin Howes, Pablo E. Saide, Hugh Coe, Amie Dobracki, Steffen Freitag, Jim M. Haywood, Steven G. Howell, Siddhant Gupta, Janek Uin, Mary Kacarab, Chongai Kuang, L. Ruby Leung, Athanasios Nenes, Greg M. McFarquhar, James Podolske, Jens Redemann, Arthur J. Sedlacek, Kenneth L. Thornhill, Jenny P. S. Wong, Robert Wood, Huihui Wu, Yang Zhang, Jianhao Zhang, and Paquita Zuidema
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13911–13940, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13911-2023, 2023
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To better understand smoke properties and its interactions with clouds, we compare the WRF-CAM5 model with observations from ORACLES, CLARIFY, and LASIC field campaigns in the southeastern Atlantic in August 2017. The model transports and mixes smoke well but does not fully capture some important processes. These include smoke chemical and physical aging over 4–12 days, smoke removal by rain, sulfate particle formation, aerosol activation into cloud droplets, and boundary layer turbulence.
Olivia E. Clifton, Donna Schwede, Christian Hogrefe, Jesse O. Bash, Sam Bland, Philip Cheung, Mhairi Coyle, Lisa Emberson, Johannes Flemming, Erick Fredj, Stefano Galmarini, Laurens Ganzeveld, Orestis Gazetas, Ignacio Goded, Christopher D. Holmes, László Horváth, Vincent Huijnen, Qian Li, Paul A. Makar, Ivan Mammarella, Giovanni Manca, J. William Munger, Juan L. Pérez-Camanyo, Jonathan Pleim, Limei Ran, Roberto San Jose, Sam J. Silva, Ralf Staebler, Shihan Sun, Amos P. K. Tai, Eran Tas, Timo Vesala, Tamás Weidinger, Zhiyong Wu, and Leiming Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9911–9961, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9911-2023, 2023
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A primary sink of air pollutants is dry deposition. Dry deposition estimates differ across the models used to simulate atmospheric chemistry. Here, we introduce an effort to examine dry deposition schemes from atmospheric chemistry models. We provide our approach’s rationale, document the schemes, and describe datasets used to drive and evaluate the schemes. We also launch the analysis of results by evaluating against observations and identifying the processes leading to model–model differences.
Christian Hogrefe, Jesse O. Bash, Jonathan E. Pleim, Donna B. Schwede, Robert C. Gilliam, Kristen M. Foley, K. Wyat Appel, and Rohit Mathur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8119–8147, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8119-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8119-2023, 2023
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Under the umbrella of the fourth phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4), this study applies AQMEII4 diagnostic tools to better characterize how dry deposition removes pollutants from the atmosphere in the widely used CMAQ model. The results illustrate how these tools can provide insights into similarities and differences between the two CMAQ dry deposition options that affect simulated pollutant budgets and ecosystem impacts from atmospheric pollution.
Qian Shu, Sergey L. Napelenok, William T. Hutzell, Kirk R. Baker, Barron H. Henderson, Benjamin N. Murphy, and Christian Hogrefe
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2303–2322, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2303-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2303-2023, 2023
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Source attribution methods are generally used to determine culpability of precursor emission sources to ambient pollutant concentrations. However, source attribution of secondarily formed pollutants such as ozone and its precursors cannot be explicitly measured, making evaluation of source apportionment methods challenging. In this study, multiple apportionment approach comparisons show common features but still reveal wide variations in predicted sector contribution and species dependency.
Chandan Sarangi, Yun Qian, L. Ruby Leung, Yang Zhang, Yufei Zou, and Yuhang Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1769–1783, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1769-2023, 2023
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We show that for air quality, the densely populated eastern US may see even larger impacts of wildfires due to long-distance smoke transport and associated positive climatic impacts, partially compensating the improvements from regulations on anthropogenic emissions. This study highlights the tension between natural and anthropogenic contributions and the non-local nature of air pollution that complicate regulatory strategies for improving future regional air quality for human health.
James D. East, Barron H. Henderson, Sergey L. Napelenok, Shannon N. Koplitz, Golam Sarwar, Robert Gilliam, Allen Lenzen, Daniel Q. Tong, R. Bradley Pierce, and Fernando Garcia-Menendez
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15981–16001, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15981-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15981-2022, 2022
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We present a framework that uses a computer model of air quality, along with air pollution data from satellite instruments, to estimate emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) across the Northern Hemisphere. The framework, which advances current methods to infer emissions from satellite observations, provides observationally constrained NOx estimates, including in regions of the world where emissions are highly uncertain, and can improve simulations of air pollutants relevant for health and policy.
Youngseob Kim, Lya Lugon, Alice Maison, Thibaud Sarica, Yelva Roustan, Myrto Valari, Yang Zhang, Michel André, and Karine Sartelet
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7371–7396, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7371-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7371-2022, 2022
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This paper presents the latest version of the street-network model MUNICH, v2.0. The description of MUNICH v1.0, which models gas-phase pollutants in a street network, was published in GMD in 2018. Since then, major modifications have been made to MUNICH. The comprehensive aerosol model SSH-aerosol is now coupled to MUNICH to simulate primary and secondary aerosol concentrations. New parameterisations have also been introduced. Test cases are defined to illustrate the new model functionalities.
Sarah E. Benish, Jesse O. Bash, Kristen M. Foley, K. Wyat Appel, Christian Hogrefe, Robert Gilliam, and George Pouliot
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12749–12767, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12749-2022, 2022
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We assess Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations of nitrogen and sulfur deposition over US climate regions to evaluate the model ability to reproduce long-term deposition trends and total deposition budgets. A measurement–model fusion technique is found to improve estimates of wet deposition. Emission controls set by the Clean Air Act successfully decreased oxidized nitrogen deposition across the US; we find increasing amounts of reduced nitrogen to the total nitrogen budget.
Mengying Li, Shaocai Yu, Xue Chen, Zhen Li, Yibo Zhang, Zhe Song, Weiping Liu, Pengfei Li, Xiaoye Zhang, Meigen Zhang, Yele Sun, Zirui Liu, Caiping Sun, Jingkun Jiang, Shuxiao Wang, Benjamin N. Murphy, Kiran Alapaty, Rohit Mathur, Daniel Rosenfeld, and John H. Seinfeld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11845–11866, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11845-2022, 2022
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This study constructed an emission inventory of condensable particulate matter (CPM) in China with a focus on organic aerosols (OAs), based on collected CPM emission information. The results show that OA emissions are enhanced twofold for the years 2014 and 2017 after the inclusion of CPM in the new inventory. Sensitivity cases demonstrated the significant contributions of CPM emissions from stationary combustion and mobile sources to primary, secondary, and total OA concentrations.
Jiandong Wang, Jia Xing, Shuxiao Wang, Rohit Mathur, Jiaping Wang, Yuqiang Zhang, Chao Liu, Jonathan Pleim, Dian Ding, Xing Chang, Jingkun Jiang, Peng Zhao, Shovan Kumar Sahu, Yuzhi Jin, David C. Wong, and Jiming Hao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5147–5156, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5147-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5147-2022, 2022
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Aerosols reduce surface solar radiation and change the photolysis rate and planetary boundary layer stability. In this study, the online coupled meteorological and chemistry model was used to explore the detailed pathway of how aerosol direct effects affect secondary inorganic aerosol. The effects through the dynamics pathway act as an equally or even more important route compared with the photolysis pathway in affecting secondary aerosol concentration in both summer and winter.
Sally S.-C. Wang, Yun Qian, L. Ruby Leung, and Yang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3445–3468, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3445-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3445-2022, 2022
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This study develops an interpretable machine learning (ML) model predicting monthly PM2.5 fire emission over the contiguous US at 0.25° resolution and compares the prediction skills of the ML and process-based models. The comparison facilitates attributions of model biases and better understanding of the strengths and uncertainties in the two types of models at regional scales, for informing future model development and their applications in fire emission projection.
Ruili Wu, Christopher W. Tessum, Yang Zhang, Chaopeng Hong, Yixuan Zheng, Xinyin Qin, Shigan Liu, and Qiang Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7621–7638, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7621-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7621-2021, 2021
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Reduced-complexity air quality models are less computationally intensive and easier to use. We developed a reduced-complexity air quality Intervention Model for Air Pollution over China (InMAP-China) to rapidly predict the air quality and estimate the health impacts of emission sources in China. We believe that this work will be of great interest to a broad audience, including environmentalists in China and scientists in relevant fields at both national and local institutes.
Kai Wang, Yang Zhang, Shaocai Yu, David C. Wong, Jonathan Pleim, Rohit Mathur, James T. Kelly, and Michelle Bell
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7189–7221, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7189-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7189-2021, 2021
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The two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ model accounting for complex chemistry–meteorology feedbacks has been applied to the long-term predictions of regional meteorology and air quality over the US. The model results show superior performance and importance of chemistry–meteorology feedbacks when compared to the offline coupled WRF and CMAQ simulations, which suggests that feedbacks should be considered along with other factors in developing future model applications to inform policy making.
Stefano Galmarini, Paul Makar, Olivia E. Clifton, Christian Hogrefe, Jesse O. Bash, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Tim Butler, Jason Ducker, Johannes Flemming, Alma Hodzic, Christopher D. Holmes, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Richard Kranenburg, Aurelia Lupascu, Juan Luis Perez-Camanyo, Jonathan Pleim, Young-Hee Ryu, Roberto San Jose, Donna Schwede, Sam Silva, and Ralf Wolke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15663–15697, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15663-2021, 2021
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This technical note presents the research protocols for phase 4 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4). This initiative has three goals: (i) to define the state of wet and dry deposition in regional models, (ii) to evaluate how dry deposition influences air concentration and flux predictions, and (iii) to identify the causes for prediction differences. The evaluation compares LULC-specific dry deposition and effective conductances and fluxes.
Xiaoyang Chen, Yang Zhang, Kai Wang, Daniel Tong, Pius Lee, Youhua Tang, Jianping Huang, Patrick C. Campbell, Jeff Mcqueen, Havala O. T. Pye, Benjamin N. Murphy, and Daiwen Kang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3969–3993, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3969-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3969-2021, 2021
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The continuously updated National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) provides air quality forecasts. To support the development of the next-generation NAQFC, we evaluate a prototype of GFSv15-CMAQv5.0.2. The performance and the potential improvements for the system are discussed. This study can provide a scientific basis for further development of NAQFC and help it to provide more accurate air quality forecasts to the public over the contiguous United States.
Syuichi Itahashi, Baozhu Ge, Keiichi Sato, Zhe Wang, Junichi Kurokawa, Jiani Tan, Kan Huang, Joshua S. Fu, Xuemei Wang, Kazuyo Yamaji, Tatsuya Nagashima, Jie Li, Mizuo Kajino, Gregory R. Carmichael, and Zifa Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8709–8734, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8709-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8709-2021, 2021
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This study presents the detailed analysis of acid deposition over southeast Asia based on the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) phase III. Simulated wet deposition is evaluated with observation data from the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET). The difficulties of models to capture observations are related to the model performance on precipitation. The precipitation-adjusted approach was applied, and the distribution of wet deposition was successfully revised.
Benjamin N. Murphy, Christopher G. Nolte, Fahim Sidi, Jesse O. Bash, K. Wyat Appel, Carey Jang, Daiwen Kang, James Kelly, Rohit Mathur, Sergey Napelenok, George Pouliot, and Havala O. T. Pye
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3407–3420, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3407-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3407-2021, 2021
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The algorithms for applying air pollution emission rates in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model have been improved to better support users and developers. The new features accommodate emissions perturbation studies that are typical in atmospheric research and output a wealth of metadata for each model run so assumptions can be verified and documented. The new approach dramatically enhances the transparency and functionality of this critical aspect of atmospheric modeling.
Mario Eduardo Gavidia-Calderón, Sergio Ibarra-Espinosa, Youngseob Kim, Yang Zhang, and Maria de Fatima Andrade
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3251–3268, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3251-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3251-2021, 2021
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The MUNICH model was used to calculate pollutant concentrations inside the streets of São Paulo. The VEIN emission model provided the vehicular emissions and the coordinates of the streets. We used information from an air quality station to account for pollutant concentrations over the street rooftops. Results showed that when emissions are calibrated, MUNICH satisfied the performance criteria. MUNICH can be used to evaluate the impact of traffic-related air pollution on public health.
K. Wyat Appel, Jesse O. Bash, Kathleen M. Fahey, Kristen M. Foley, Robert C. Gilliam, Christian Hogrefe, William T. Hutzell, Daiwen Kang, Rohit Mathur, Benjamin N. Murphy, Sergey L. Napelenok, Christopher G. Nolte, Jonathan E. Pleim, George A. Pouliot, Havala O. T. Pye, Limei Ran, Shawn J. Roselle, Golam Sarwar, Donna B. Schwede, Fahim I. Sidi, Tanya L. Spero, and David C. Wong
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2867–2897, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2867-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2867-2021, 2021
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This paper details the scientific updates in the recently released CMAQ version 5.3 (and v5.3.1) and also includes operational and diagnostic evaluations of CMAQv5.3.1 against observations and the previous version of the CMAQ (v5.2.1). This work was done to improve the underlying science in CMAQ. This article is used to inform the CMAQ modeling community of the updates to the modeling system and the expected change in model performance from these updates (versus the previous model version).
Yilin Chen, Huizhong Shen, Jennifer Kaiser, Yongtao Hu, Shannon L. Capps, Shunliu Zhao, Amir Hakami, Jhih-Shyang Shih, Gertrude K. Pavur, Matthew D. Turner, Daven K. Henze, Jaroslav Resler, Athanasios Nenes, Sergey L. Napelenok, Jesse O. Bash, Kathleen M. Fahey, Gregory R. Carmichael, Tianfeng Chai, Lieven Clarisse, Pierre-François Coheur, Martin Van Damme, and Armistead G. Russell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2067–2082, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2067-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2067-2021, 2021
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Ammonia (NH3) emissions can exert adverse impacts on air quality and ecosystem well-being. NH3 emission inventories are viewed as highly uncertain. Here we optimize the NH3 emission estimates in the US using an air quality model and NH3 measurements from the IASI satellite instruments. The optimized NH3 emissions are much higher than the National Emissions Inventory estimates in April. The optimized NH3 emissions improved model performance when evaluated against independent observation.
Huiying Luo, Marina Astitha, Christian Hogrefe, Rohit Mathur, and S. Trivikrama Rao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13801–13815, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13801-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13801-2020, 2020
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A new method is introduced to evaluate nonlinear, nonstationary modeled PM2.5 time series by decomposing decadal PM2.5 concentrations and its species onto various timescales. It does not require preselection of temporal scales and assumptions of linearity and stationarity. It provides a unique opportunity to assess the influence of each species on total PM2.5. The results reveal a phase shift in modeled EC/OC concentrations, indicating the need for improved model treatment of organic aerosols.
Yohei Shinozuka, Pablo E. Saide, Gonzalo A. Ferrada, Sharon P. Burton, Richard Ferrare, Sarah J. Doherty, Hamish Gordon, Karla Longo, Marc Mallet, Yan Feng, Qiaoqiao Wang, Yafang Cheng, Amie Dobracki, Steffen Freitag, Steven G. Howell, Samuel LeBlanc, Connor Flynn, Michal Segal-Rosenhaimer, Kristina Pistone, James R. Podolske, Eric J. Stith, Joseph Ryan Bennett, Gregory R. Carmichael, Arlindo da Silva, Ravi Govindaraju, Ruby Leung, Yang Zhang, Leonhard Pfister, Ju-Mee Ryoo, Jens Redemann, Robert Wood, and Paquita Zuidema
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11491–11526, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11491-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11491-2020, 2020
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In the southeast Atlantic, well-defined smoke plumes from Africa advect over marine boundary layer cloud decks; both are most extensive around September, when most of the smoke resides in the free troposphere. A framework is put forth for evaluating the performance of a range of global and regional atmospheric composition models against observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) airborne mission in September 2016.
Baozhu Ge, Syuichi Itahashi, Keiichi Sato, Danhui Xu, Junhua Wang, Fan Fan, Qixin Tan, Joshua S. Fu, Xuemei Wang, Kazuyo Yamaji, Tatsuya Nagashima, Jie Li, Mizuo Kajino, Hong Liao, Meigen Zhang, Zhe Wang, Meng Li, Jung-Hun Woo, Junichi Kurokawa, Yuepeng Pan, Qizhong Wu, Xuejun Liu, and Zifa Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10587–10610, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10587-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10587-2020, 2020
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Performances of the simulated deposition for different reduced N (Nr) species in China were conducted with the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia. Results showed that simulated wet deposition of oxidized N was overestimated in northeastern China and underestimated in south China, but Nr was underpredicted in all regions by all models. Oxidized N has larger uncertainties than Nr, indicating that the chemical reaction process is one of the most importance factors affecting model performance.
Satoru Chatani, Hikari Shimadera, Syuichi Itahashi, and Kazuyo Yamaji
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10311–10329, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10311-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10311-2020, 2020
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Source sensitivities and apportionments of PM2.5 and ozone concentrations over Japan for 2016 were evaluated using multiple numerical techniques including BFM, HDDM, and ISAM, embedded in regional chemical transport models. Influences of stringent emission controls recently implemented in Asian countries were reflected. Differences between sensitivities and apportionments greatly helped distinguish various direct and indirect effects of emission sources on PM2.5 and ozone concentrations.
Shunliu Zhao, Matthew G. Russell, Amir Hakami, Shannon L. Capps, Matthew D. Turner, Daven K. Henze, Peter B. Percell, Jaroslav Resler, Huizhong Shen, Armistead G. Russell, Athanasios Nenes, Amanda J. Pappin, Sergey L. Napelenok, Jesse O. Bash, Kathleen M. Fahey, Gregory R. Carmichael, Charles O. Stanier, and Tianfeng Chai
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2925–2944, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2925-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2925-2020, 2020
Jiani Tan, Joshua S. Fu, Gregory R. Carmichael, Syuichi Itahashi, Zhining Tao, Kan Huang, Xinyi Dong, Kazuyo Yamaji, Tatsuya Nagashima, Xuemei Wang, Yiming Liu, Hyo-Jung Lee, Chuan-Yao Lin, Baozhu Ge, Mizuo Kajino, Jia Zhu, Meigen Zhang, Hong Liao, and Zifa Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7393–7410, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7393-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7393-2020, 2020
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This study evaluated the performance of 12 chemical transport models from MICS-Asia III for predicting the particulate matter (PM) over East Asia. Four model processes were investigated as the possible reasons for model bias with measurements and the factors causing inconsistent predictions of PM from different models: (1) model inputs, (2) gas–particle conversion, (3) dust emission modules and (4) removal mechanisms (wet and dry depositions). The influence of each process was discussed.
Syuichi Itahashi, Rohit Mathur, Christian Hogrefe, and Yang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3373–3396, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3373-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3373-2020, 2020
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The state-of-the-science Community Multiscale Air Quality model extended for hemispheric applications (H-CMAQ) is used to model the trans-Pacific transport which has been recognized as a potential source of air pollutants over the US. In Part 1, modeled ozone is evaluated with observations at surface, by ozonesonde and airplane, and by satellite across the Northern Hemisphere. In addition, a newly developed air mass characterization method to estimate stratospheric intrusion is presented.
Syuichi Itahashi, Rohit Mathur, Christian Hogrefe, Sergey L. Napelenok, and Yang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3397–3413, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3397-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3397-2020, 2020
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The state-of-the-science Community Multiscale Air Quality model extended for hemispheric applications (H-CMAQ) is used to model the trans-Pacific transport which has been recognized as a potential source of air pollutants over the US. In Part 2, the higher-order decoupled direct method (HDDM) is applied to investigate the emission impacts from east Asia and the US during April 2010. Furthermore, changes in trans-Pacific transport caused by the recent emissions are examined.
Syuichi Itahashi, Baozhu Ge, Keiichi Sato, Joshua S. Fu, Xuemei Wang, Kazuyo Yamaji, Tatsuya Nagashima, Jie Li, Mizuo Kajino, Hong Liao, Meigen Zhang, Zhe Wang, Meng Li, Junichi Kurokawa, Gregory R. Carmichael, and Zifa Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2667–2693, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2667-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2667-2020, 2020
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This study gives an overview of acid deposition from the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) phase III. Wet deposition simulated by a total of nine models is evaluated with observation data from the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET). The total deposition maps comparing to emissions over Asia are presented. To seek a way to improve the model performance, ensemble approaches and the precipitation-adjusted method are discussed.
S. Trivikrama Rao, Huiying Luo, Marina Astitha, Christian Hogrefe, Valerie Garcia, and Rohit Mathur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1627–1639, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1627-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1627-2020, 2020
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Since numerical air quality models do not explicitly simulate stochastic variations in the atmosphere, there will always be differences between modeled and measured pollutant levels even when the model's physics, chemistry, numerical analysis, and its input data are perfect. This paper quantifies the inherent uncertainty in regional models due to the stochastic nature of the atmosphere. A knowledge of the expected error helps model developers in evaluating the real progress in improving models.
Lei Kong, Xiao Tang, Jiang Zhu, Zifa Wang, Joshua S. Fu, Xuemei Wang, Syuichi Itahashi, Kazuyo Yamaji, Tatsuya Nagashima, Hyo-Jung Lee, Cheol-Hee Kim, Chuan-Yao Lin, Lei Chen, Meigen Zhang, Zhining Tao, Jie Li, Mizuo Kajino, Hong Liao, Zhe Wang, Kengo Sudo, Yuesi Wang, Yuepeng Pan, Guiqian Tang, Meng Li, Qizhong Wu, Baozhu Ge, and Gregory R. Carmichael
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 181–202, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-181-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-181-2020, 2020
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Evaluation and uncertainty investigation of NO2, CO and NH3 modeling over China were conducted in this study using 14 chemical transport model results from MICS-Asia III. All models largely underestimated CO concentrations and showed very poor performance in reproducing the observed monthly variations of NH3 concentrations. Potential factors related to such deficiencies are investigated and discussed in this paper.
Jie Li, Tatsuya Nagashima, Lei Kong, Baozhu Ge, Kazuyo Yamaji, Joshua S. Fu, Xuemei Wang, Qi Fan, Syuichi Itahashi, Hyo-Jung Lee, Cheol-Hee Kim, Chuan-Yao Lin, Meigen Zhang, Zhining Tao, Mizuo Kajino, Hong Liao, Meng Li, Jung-Hun Woo, Jun-ichi Kurokawa, Zhe Wang, Qizhong Wu, Hajime Akimoto, Gregory R. Carmichael, and Zifa Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12993–13015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12993-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12993-2019, 2019
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This study evaluated and intercompared 14 CTMs with ozone observations in East Asia, within the framework of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for ASIA Phase III (MICS-Asia III). Potential causes of the discrepancies between model results and observation were investigated by assessing the planetary boundary layer heights, emission fluxes, dry deposition, chemistry and vertical transport among models. Finally, a multi-model estimate of pollution distributions was provided.
Daiwen Kang, Kristen M. Foley, Rohit Mathur, Shawn J. Roselle, Kenneth E. Pickering, and Dale J. Allen
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4409–4424, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4409-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4409-2019, 2019
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This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the lightning production schemes in CMAQ as described in https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/3071/2019/gmd-12-3071-2019.html on model performance. The impact of lightning NOx from different schemes is evaluated in time and space using both ground–level network measurements and aloft (ozonesonde and aircraft) observations. These results provide users the benchmark model performance when the lightning NOx production schemes are applied.
Lei Chen, Yi Gao, Meigen Zhang, Joshua S. Fu, Jia Zhu, Hong Liao, Jialin Li, Kan Huang, Baozhu Ge, Xuemei Wang, Yun Fat Lam, Chuan-Yao Lin, Syuichi Itahashi, Tatsuya Nagashima, Mizuo Kajino, Kazuyo Yamaji, Zifa Wang, and Jun-ichi Kurokawa
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11911–11937, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11911-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11911-2019, 2019
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Simulated aerosol concentrations from 14 CTMs within the framework of MICS-Asia III are detailedly evaluated with an extensive set of measurements in East Asia. Similarities and differences among model performances are also analyzed. Although more considerable capacities for reproducing the aerosol concentrations and their variations are shown in current CTMs than those in MICS-Asia II, more efforts are needed to reduce diversities of simulated aerosol concentrations among air quality models.
Daiwen Kang, Kenneth E. Pickering, Dale J. Allen, Kristen M. Foley, David C. Wong, Rohit Mathur, and Shawn J. Roselle
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3071–3083, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3071-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3071-2019, 2019
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Lightning strikes produce significant amount of nitrogen oxides and the resulting atmospheric chemistry causes one of the primary air pollutants, ground-level ozone, to change. In this paper, we documented the evolution of scientific updates for lightning-induced nitrogen oxides schemes in the CMAQ model. The updated observation-based schemes are good for retrospective applications, while the parameterized scheme can estimate lightning nitrogen oxides for applications without observations.
María Teresa Pay, Gotzon Gangoiti, Marc Guevara, Sergey Napelenok, Xavier Querol, Oriol Jorba, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 5467–5494, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5467-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5467-2019, 2019
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The poor diagnostic of the O3 issue over southwestern Europe prevents authorities from implementing effective mitigation plans. This work is a pioneer in identifying that imported O3 is the largest input to the ground-level O3 concentration in the Iberian Peninsula, which is largely explained by vertical mixing. This study also proves that anthropogenic emissions control the severe O3 peaks during stagnant conditions. Ad hoc local actions should complement national/European strategies.
Gabriele Curci, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Rocio Barò, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Jesper H. Christensen, Augustin Colette, Aidan Farrow, Xavier Francis, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Ulas Im, Peng Liu, Astrid Manders, Laura Palacios-Peña, Marje Prank, Luca Pozzoli, Ranjeet Sokhi, Efisio Solazzo, Paolo Tuccella, Alper Unal, Marta G. Vivanco, Christian Hogrefe, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 181–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-181-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-181-2019, 2019
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Atmospheric carbonaceous aerosols are able to absorb solar radiation and they continue to contribute some of the largest uncertainties in projected climate change. One important detail is how the chemical species are arranged inside each particle, i.e. the knowledge of their mixing state. We use an ensemble of regional model simulations to test different mixing state assumptions and found that a combination of internal and external mixing may better reproduce sunphotometer observations.
Peng Liu, Christian Hogrefe, Ulas Im, Jesper H. Christensen, Johannes Bieser, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Greg Yarwood, Rohit Mathur, Shawn Roselle, and Tanya Spero
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17157–17175, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17157-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17157-2018, 2018
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This study represents an intercomparison of four regional-scale air quality simulations in order to understand the model similarities and differences in estimating the impact of ozone imported from outside of the US on the surface ozone within the US at process level. Vertical turbulent mixing stands out as a primary contributor to the model differences in inert tracers.
Yuqiang Zhang, J. Jason West, Rohit Mathur, Jia Xing, Christian Hogrefe, Shawn J. Roselle, Jesse O. Bash, Jonathan E. Pleim, Chuen-Meei Gan, and David C. Wong
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15003–15016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15003-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15003-2018, 2018
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Here we use a fine-resolution (36 km) self-consistent 21-year air quality simulation from 1990 to 2010, a health impact function, and annual county-level population and baseline mortality rate estimates to estimate annual mortality burdens from PM2.5 and O3 in the US, and also the contributions to the trends. We found that the PM2.5-related mortality burden has steadily decreased by 53 %, while the O3-related mortality burden has increased by 13 %, with larger inter-annual variabilities.
Marina Astitha, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Ghezae Araya Fisseha, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Jesper H. Christensen, Owen R. Cooper, Stefano Galmarini, Christian Hogrefe, Ulas Im, Bryan Johnson, Peng Liu, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Efisio Solazzo, David W. Tarasick, and Greg Yarwood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13925–13945, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13925-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13925-2018, 2018
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This work is unique in the detailed analyses of modeled ozone vertical profiles from sites in North America through the collaboration of four research groups from the US and EU. We assess the air quality models' performance and model inter-comparison for ozone vertical profiles and stratospheric ozone intrusions. Lastly, we designate the important role of lateral boundary conditions in the ozone vertical profiles using chemically inert tracers.
Marta G. Vivanco, Mark R. Theobald, Héctor García-Gómez, Juan Luis Garrido, Marje Prank, Wenche Aas, Mario Adani, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Camilla Andersson, Roberto Bellasio, Bertrand Bessagnet, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Jørgen Brandt, Gino Briganti, Andrea Cappelletti, Gabriele Curci, Jesper H. Christensen, Augustin Colette, Florian Couvidat, Cornelis Cuvelier, Massimo D'Isidoro, Johannes Flemming, Andrea Fraser, Camilla Geels, Kaj M. Hansen, Christian Hogrefe, Ulas Im, Oriol Jorba, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Astrid Manders, Mihaela Mircea, Noelia Otero, Maria-Teresa Pay, Luca Pozzoli, Efisio Solazzo, Svetlana Tsyro, Alper Unal, Peter Wind, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10199–10218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10199-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10199-2018, 2018
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European wet and dry atmospheric deposition of N and S estimated by 14 air quality models was found to vary substantially. An ensemble of models meeting acceptability criteria was used to estimate the exceedances of the critical loads for N in habitats within the Natura 2000 network, as well as their lower and upper limits. Scenarios with 20 % emission reductions in different regions of the world showed that European emissions are responsible for most of the N and S deposition in Europe.
Junxi Zhang, Yang Gao, Kun Luo, L. Ruby Leung, Yang Zhang, Kai Wang, and Jianren Fan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9861–9877, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9861-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9861-2018, 2018
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We used a regional model to investigate the impact of atmosphere with high temperature and low wind speed on ozone concentration. When these compound events (heat waves and stagnant weather) occur simultaneously, a striking ozone enhancement is revealed. This type of compound event is projected to increase more dominantly compared to single events in the future over the US, Europe, and China, implying the importance of reducing emissions in order to alleviate the impact from the compound events.
Ulas Im, Jesper Heile Christensen, Camilla Geels, Kaj Mantzius Hansen, Jørgen Brandt, Efisio Solazzo, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocio Baro, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Augustin Colette, Gabriele Curci, Aidan Farrow, Johannes Flemming, Andrea Fraser, Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Peng Liu, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Laura Palacios-Peña, Guido Pirovano, Luca Pozzoli, Marje Prank, Rebecca Rose, Ranjeet Sokhi, Paolo Tuccella, Alper Unal, Marta G. Vivanco, Greg Yarwood, Christian Hogrefe, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8929–8952, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8929-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8929-2018, 2018
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We evaluate the impact of global and regional anthropogenic emission reductions on major air pollutant levels over Europe and North America, using a multi-model ensemble of regional chemistry and transport models. Results show that ozone levels are largely driven by long-range transport over both continents while other pollutants such as carbon monoxide or aerosols are mainly controlled by domestic sources. Use of multi-model ensembles can help to reduce the uncertainties in individual models.
Yuqiang Zhang, Rohit Mathur, Jesse O. Bash, Christian Hogrefe, Jia Xing, and Shawn J. Roselle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9091–9106, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9091-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9091-2018, 2018
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For this study, we evaluated the WRF–CMAQ coupled model's ability to simulate the long-term trends of wet deposition of nitrogen and sulfur from 1990 to 2010 by comparing the model results with long-term observation datasets in the US. The model generally underestimates the wet deposition of both nitrogen and sulfur but captured well the decreasing trends for the deposition. Then we estimated the deposition budget in the US, including wet deposition and dry deposition from model simulations.
Stefano Galmarini, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Efisio Solazzo, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Roberto Bellasio, Anna M. K. Benedictow, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Joergen Brandt, Jesper H. Christensen, Augustin Colette, Gabriele Curci, Yanko Davila, Xinyi Dong, Johannes Flemming, Xavier Francis, Andrea Fraser, Joshua Fu, Daven K. Henze, Christian Hogrefe, Ulas Im, Marta Garcia Vivanco, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Jan Eiof Jonson, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Astrid Manders, Rohit Mathur, Laura Palacios-Peña, Guido Pirovano, Luca Pozzoli, Marie Prank, Martin Schultz, Rajeet S. Sokhi, Kengo Sudo, Paolo Tuccella, Toshihiko Takemura, Takashi Sekiya, and Alper Unal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8727–8744, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8727-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8727-2018, 2018
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An ensemble of model results relating to ozone concentrations in Europe in 2010 has been produced and studied. The novelty consists in the fact that the ensemble is made of results of models working at two different scales (regional and global), therefore contributing in detail two different parts of the atmospheric spectrum. The ensemble defined as a hybrid has been studied in detail and shown to bring additional value to the assessment of air quality.
Ulas Im, Jørgen Brandt, Camilla Geels, Kaj Mantzius Hansen, Jesper Heile Christensen, Mikael Skou Andersen, Efisio Solazzo, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocio Baro, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Augustin Colette, Gabriele Curci, Aidan Farrow, Johannes Flemming, Andrea Fraser, Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Ciao-Kai Liang, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Guido Pirovano, Luca Pozzoli, Marje Prank, Rebecca Rose, Ranjeet Sokhi, Paolo Tuccella, Alper Unal, Marta Garcia Vivanco, Jason West, Greg Yarwood, Christian Hogrefe, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5967–5989, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5967-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5967-2018, 2018
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The impacts of air pollution on human health and their costs in Europe and the United States for the year 2010 ared modeled by a multi-model ensemble. In Europe, the number of premature deaths is calculated to be 414 000, while in the US it is estimated to be 160 000. Health impacts estimated by individual models can vary up to a factor of 3. Results show that the domestic emissions have the largest impact on premature deaths, compared to foreign sources.
Christian Hogrefe, Peng Liu, George Pouliot, Rohit Mathur, Shawn Roselle, Johannes Flemming, Meiyun Lin, and Rokjin J. Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3839–3864, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3839-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3839-2018, 2018
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This study quantifies the impacts of different representations of background ozone in state-of-the-science large-scale models on surface and aloft ozone burdens simulated by the CMAQ regional model over the United States. It also compares both the CMAQ simulations and the driving large-scale models to surface and upper air observations.
Syuichi Itahashi, Keiya Yumimoto, Itsushi Uno, Hiroshi Hayami, Shin-ichi Fujita, Yuepeng Pan, and Yuesi Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2835–2852, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2835-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2835-2018, 2018
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Ground-based observations of precipitation chemistry over China, Korea, and Japan from 2001 to 2015 were compiled, and the ratio of nitrate to non-sea-salt sulfate concentration in precipitation was analyzed to identify the long-term record of acidifying species. The variations in the ratio in East Asia corresponded to the NOx / SO2 emission ratio and the NO2 / SO2 column ratio in China. The results indicated that the acidity of precipitation shifted from sulfur to nitrogen.
Jingqiu Mao, Annmarie Carlton, Ronald C. Cohen, William H. Brune, Steven S. Brown, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jose L. Jimenez, Havala O. T. Pye, Nga Lee Ng, Lu Xu, V. Faye McNeill, Kostas Tsigaridis, Brian C. McDonald, Carsten Warneke, Alex Guenther, Matthew J. Alvarado, Joost de Gouw, Loretta J. Mickley, Eric M. Leibensperger, Rohit Mathur, Christopher G. Nolte, Robert W. Portmann, Nadine Unger, Mika Tosca, and Larry W. Horowitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2615–2651, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2615-2018, 2018
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This paper is aimed at discussing progress in evaluating, diagnosing, and improving air quality and climate modeling using comparisons to SAS observations as a guide to thinking about improvements to mechanisms and parameterizations in models.
Itsushi Uno, Kazuo Osada, Keiya Yumimoto, Zhe Wang, Syuichi Itahashi, Xiaole Pan, Yukari Hara, Yugo Kanaya, Shigekazu Yamamoto, and Thomas Duncan Fairlie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14181–14197, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14181-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14181-2017, 2017
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We analyzed long-term fine- and coarse-mode nitrate and related aerosols synergetic observations at Fukuoka, Japan. GEOS Chem model including dust and sea-salt acid uptake processes was used to assess the observed seasonal variation, and the impact of long-range transport from the Asian continent. A numerical model reproduced the seasonal variations of fine aerosols. For coarse nitrate, large-scale dust-nitrate outflow from China was confirmed during all dust events between January and June.
Kai Duan, Ge Sun, Steven G. McNulty, Peter V. Caldwell, Erika C. Cohen, Shanlei Sun, Heather D. Aldridge, Decheng Zhou, Liangxia Zhang, and Yang Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5517–5529, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5517-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5517-2017, 2017
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We examined the potential roles of major climatic variables (including precipitation, air temperature, solar radiation, specific humidity, and wind speed) in altering annual runoff, which is an important indicator of freshwater supply, in the United States through the 21st century. Increasing temperature, precipitation, and humidity are recognized as three major climatic factors that drive runoff to change in different directions across the country.
Rohit Mathur, Jia Xing, Robert Gilliam, Golam Sarwar, Christian Hogrefe, Jonathan Pleim, George Pouliot, Shawn Roselle, Tanya L. Spero, David C. Wong, and Jeffrey Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12449–12474, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12449-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12449-2017, 2017
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We extend CMAQ's applicability to the entire Northern Hemisphere to enable consistent examination of interactions between atmospheric processes occurring on various spatial and temporal scales. Improvements were made in model process representation, structure, and input data sets that enable a range of model applications including episodic intercontinental pollutant transport, long-term trends in air pollution across the Northern Hemisphere, and air pollution–climate interactions.
Efisio Solazzo, Christian Hogrefe, Augustin Colette, Marta Garcia-Vivanco, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10435–10465, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10435-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10435-2017, 2017
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The work here is conducted within the frame of AQMEII3 and promotes the use of diagnostic methods for the evaluation of air quality models. We highlight the need to move away from aggregated error metrics and to focus on the quality of the information that can be extracted from the model and the observation. This aids the understanding of the causes of model error, providing more useful information to model developers and users than can be gained from common evaluations.
Jia Xing, Jiandong Wang, Rohit Mathur, Shuxiao Wang, Golam Sarwar, Jonathan Pleim, Christian Hogrefe, Yuqiang Zhang, Jingkun Jiang, David C. Wong, and Jiming Hao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9869–9883, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9869-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9869-2017, 2017
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The assessment of the impacts of aerosol direct effects (ADE) is important for understanding emission reduction strategies that seek co-benefits associated with reductions in both particulate matter and ozone. This study quantifies the ADE impacts on tropospheric ozone by using a two-way coupled meteorology and atmospheric chemistry model. Results suggest that reducing ADE may have the potential risk of increasing ozone in winter, but it will benefit the reduction of maxima ozone in summer.
Chaopeng Hong, Qiang Zhang, Yang Zhang, Youhua Tang, Daniel Tong, and Kebin He
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2447–2470, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2447-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2447-2017, 2017
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A regional coupled climate–chemistry modeling system using the dynamical downscaling technique was established and evaluated. The modeling system performed well for both the climatological and the short-term air quality applications over east Asia. Regional models outperformed global models in regional climate and air quality predictions. The coupled modeling system improved the model performance, although some biases remained in the aerosol–cloud–radiation variables.
Khairunnisa Yahya, Timothy Glotfelty, Kai Wang, Yang Zhang, and Athanasios Nenes
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2333–2363, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2333-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2333-2017, 2017
K. Wyat Appel, Sergey L. Napelenok, Kristen M. Foley, Havala O. T. Pye, Christian Hogrefe, Deborah J. Luecken, Jesse O. Bash, Shawn J. Roselle, Jonathan E. Pleim, Hosein Foroutan, William T. Hutzell, George A. Pouliot, Golam Sarwar, Kathleen M. Fahey, Brett Gantt, Robert C. Gilliam, Nicholas K. Heath, Daiwen Kang, Rohit Mathur, Donna B. Schwede, Tanya L. Spero, David C. Wong, and Jeffrey O. Young
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1703–1732, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1703-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1703-2017, 2017
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The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a comprehensive multipollutant air quality modeling system. The CMAQ model is used extensively throughout the world to simulate air pollutants for many purposes, including regulatory and air quality forecasting applications. This work describes the scientific updates made to the latest version of the CMAQ modeling system (CMAQv5.1) and presents an evaluation of the new model against observations and results from the previous model version.
Syuichi Itahashi, Itsushi Uno, Kazuo Osada, Yusuke Kamiguchi, Shigekazu Yamamoto, Kei Tamura, Zhe Wang, Yasunori Kurosaki, and Yugo Kanaya
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3823–3843, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3823-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3823-2017, 2017
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Over East Asia, the transboundary air pollution of SO42− has been recognized. The importance of the transboundary air pollution of NO3− in winter was demonstrated in this study through synergetic ground-based observations with state-of-the-art measurements of secondary inorganic aerosols (SO42−, NO3−, and NH4+) and a regional chemical transport model analysis. This study will help to refine the understanding of transboundary heavy PM2.5 pollution in winter.
Efisio Solazzo, Roberto Bianconi, Christian Hogrefe, Gabriele Curci, Paolo Tuccella, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocío Baró, Roberto Bellasio, Johannes Bieser, Jørgen Brandt, Jesper H. Christensen, Augistin Colette, Xavier Francis, Andrea Fraser, Marta Garcia Vivanco, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Ulas Im, Astrid Manders, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Guido Pirovano, Luca Pozzoli, Marje Prank, Ranjeet S. Sokhi, Alper Unal, Greg Yarwood, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3001–3054, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3001-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3001-2017, 2017
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As part of the third phase of AQMEII, this study uses timescale analysis to apportion error to the responsible processes, detect causes of model error, and identify the processes and scales that require dedicated investigations. The analysis tackles model performance gauging through measurement-to-model comparison, error decomposition, and time series analysis of model biases for ozone, CO, SO2, NO, NO2, PM10, PM2.5, wind speed, and temperature over Europe and North America.
Stefano Galmarini, Brigitte Koffi, Efisio Solazzo, Terry Keating, Christian Hogrefe, Michael Schulz, Anna Benedictow, Jan Jurgen Griesfeller, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Greg Carmichael, Joshua Fu, and Frank Dentener
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1543–1555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1543-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1543-2017, 2017
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We present an overview of the coordinated global numerical modelling experiments performed during 2012–2016 by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP), the regional experiments by the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) over Europe and North America, and the Model Intercomparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia). Given the organizational complexity of bringing together these three initiatives, the experiment organization is presented.
Provat K. Saha, Andrey Khlystov, Khairunnisa Yahya, Yang Zhang, Lu Xu, Nga L. Ng, and Andrew P. Grieshop
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 501–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-501-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-501-2017, 2017
Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Ulas Im, Efisio Solazzo, Roberto Bianconi, Alba Badia, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocío Baró, Roberto Bellasio, Dominik Brunner, Charles Chemel, Gabriele Curci, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Johannes Flemming, Renate Forkel, Lea Giordano, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Marcus Hirtl, Oriol Jorba, Astrid Manders-Groot, Lucy Neal, Juan L. Pérez, Guidio Pirovano, Roberto San Jose, Nicholas Savage, Wolfram Schroder, Ranjeet S. Sokhi, Dimiter Syrakov, Paolo Tuccella, Johannes Werhahn, Ralf Wolke, Christian Hogrefe, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15629–15652, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15629-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15629-2016, 2016
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Four ensemble methods are applied to two annual AQMEII datasets and their performance is compared for O3, NO2 and PM10. The goal of the study is to quantify to what extent we can extract predictable signals from an ensemble with superior skill at each station over the single models and the ensemble mean. The promotion of the right amount of accuracy and diversity within the ensemble results in an average additional skill of up to 31 % compared to using the full ensemble in an unconditional way.
Kai Duan, Ge Sun, Steven G. McNulty, Peter V. Caldwell, Erika C. Cohen, Shanlei Sun, Heather D. Aldridge, Decheng Zhou, Liangxia Zhang, and Yang Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-493, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-493, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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This study examines the potential shift of the relative roles of changing precipitation and temperature in controlling freshwater availability in the USA. The influence of temperature is projected to outweigh that of precipitation in a continued warming future in the 21st century, although precipitation has been the primary control in recent decades. The vast croplands and grasslands across the central and forests in the northwestern regions might be particularly vulnerable to climate change.
Jia Xing, Rohit Mathur, Jonathan Pleim, Christian Hogrefe, Jiandong Wang, Chuen-Meei Gan, Golam Sarwar, David C. Wong, and Stuart McKeen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10865–10877, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10865-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10865-2016, 2016
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Downward transport of ozone from the stratosphere has large impacts on surface concentration and needs to be properly represented in regional models. This study developed a seasonally and spatially varying PV-based function from an investigation of the relationship between PV and O3. The implementation of the new function significantly improves the model's performance in O3 simulation, which enables a more accurate simulation of the vertical distribution of O3 across the Northern Hemisphere.
Shanlei Sun, Ge Sun, Erika Cohen, Steven G. McNulty, Peter V. Caldwell, Kai Duan, and Yang Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 935–952, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-935-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-935-2016, 2016
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This study links an ecohydrological model with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) dynamically downscaled climate projections of the HadCM3 model under the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario. Water yield and ecosystem productivity response to climate change were highly variable with an increasing trend across the 82 773 watersheds. Results are useful for policy-makers and land managers in formulating appropriate watershed-specific strategies for sustaining water and carbon sources.
Khairunnisa Yahya, Kai Wang, Patrick Campbell, Timothy Glotfelty, Jian He, and Yang Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 671–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-671-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-671-2016, 2016
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The Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) v3.6.1 is evaluated for its first decadal application during 2001 to 2010 using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emissions. The model evaluation shows acceptable performance for long-term climatological simulations of most meteorological variables and chemical concentrations. Larger biases exist for aerosol-cloud-radiation variables, which future model improvement should focus on.
J. He, Y. Zhang, S. Tilmes, L. Emmons, J.-F. Lamarque, T. Glotfelty, A. Hodzic, and F. Vitt
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3999–4025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3999-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3999-2015, 2015
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The global simulations with CB05_GE and MOZART-4x predict similar chemical profiles for major gases compared to aircraft measurements, with better agreement for the NOy profile by CB05_GE. The SOA concentrations of SOA at four sites in CONUS and organic carbon over the IMPROVE sites are better predicted by MOZART-4x. The two simulations result in a global average difference of 0.5W m-2 in simulated shortwave cloud radiative forcing, with up to 13.6W m-2 over subtropical regions.
J. He, R. He, and Y. Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-9965-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-9965-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
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WRF/Chem simulations are performed to understand the impacts of cumulus parameterizations and air-sea interactions on coastal air quality. The use of different cumulus parameterizations gives different vertical mixing and wet scavenging. The use of different air-sea interaction treatments also gives different predictions of O3 and PM2.5 by up to 17.3 ppb and 7.9 μg m-3, respectively. WRF/Chem-ROMS improves model predictions, illustrating the benefits and needs of using coupled atmospheric-ocean
C.-M. Gan, J. Pleim, R. Mathur, C. Hogrefe, C. N. Long, J. Xing, D. Wong, R. Gilliam, and C. Wei
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12193–12209, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12193-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12193-2015, 2015
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This study attempts to determine the consequences of the changes in tropospheric aerosol burden arising from substantial reductions in emissions of SO2 and NOx associated with control measures under the Clean Air Act especially on trends in solar radiation. Comparisons of model results with observations of aerosol optical depth, aerosol concentration, and radiation demonstrate that the coupled WRF-CMAQ model is capable of replicating the trends well even though it tends to underestimate the AOD.
Y. Zhou, H. Mao, K. Demerjian, C. Hogrefe, and J. Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-27253-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-27253-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Baseline carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3) were studied at seven rural sites in the Northeast U.S. during varying periods over 2001 – 2010. Baseline CO at all sites decreased significantly at a rate between -4.3 – -2.3 ppbv yr-1, while baseline O3 was relatively constant. Interannual and seasonal variations of baseline CO and O3 were related to increasing Asian emissions, NOx emissions reduction in urban areas, global biomass burning emissions, and meteorological conditions.
J. Xing, R. Mathur, J. Pleim, C. Hogrefe, C.-M. Gan, D. C. Wong, and C. Wei
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9997–10018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9997-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9997-2015, 2015
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The ability of a coupled meteorology-chemistry model (WRF-CMAQ) to reproduce the historical trend in AOD and clear-sky SWR over the N. Hemisphere has been evaluated through a comparison of 21-year simulated results with observation-derived records from 1990 to 2010. Questions of how well the model represents the regional and temporal variability of aerosol burden and DRE, and whether the model is able to capture past trends in aerosol loading and associated radiation effects, will be addressed.
K. Yahya, K. Wang, Y. Zhang, and T. E. Kleindienst
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2095–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2095-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2095-2015, 2015
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The application of WRF/Chem to North America shows that it can reproduce most observations and their variation trends from 2006 to 2010. The inclusion of chemical feedbacks reduces biases in meteorological predictions in 2010 but increases errors in comparison to WRF. The net changes in meteorology from 2006 to 2010 are mostly influenced by changes in meteorology and those of ozone and fine particles are influenced by changes in emissions and chemical BCONs, and to a lesser extent meteorology.
J. Xing, R. Mathur, J. Pleim, C. Hogrefe, C.-M. Gan, D. C. Wong, C. Wei, R. Gilliam, and G. Pouliot
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2723–2747, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2723-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2723-2015, 2015
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Model-simulated air quality trends over the past 2 decades largely agree with those derived from observations. In the relative amounts of VOC and NOx emission controls in different regions across the northern hemisphere have led to significantly different trends in tropospheric O3. Differences in the historical changes in the relative amounts of NH3, NOx and SO2 emissions also impact the trends in inorganic particulate matter amounts and composition in China, the U.S. and Europe.
B. Zheng, Q. Zhang, Y. Zhang, K. B. He, K. Wang, G. J. Zheng, F. K. Duan, Y. L. Ma, and T. Kimoto
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2031–2049, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2031-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2031-2015, 2015
R. H. F. Kwok, K. R. Baker, S. L. Napelenok, and G. S. Tonnesen
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 99–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-99-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-99-2015, 2015
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The implementation and application of the Integrated Source Apportionment Method (ISAM) for O3 and its precursors for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model are described. CMAQ-ISAM is a hybrid of source apportionment and source sensitivity in that O3 production is attributed to precursor sources based on the O3 formation regime. CMAQ-ISAM offers a source attribution tool for the purposes of quantifying and understanding sources and impacts of regional air pollution.
S. Yu, R. Mathur, J. Pleim, D. Wong, R. Gilliam, K. Alapaty, C. Zhao, and X. Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11247–11285, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11247-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11247-2014, 2014
T. Glotfelty, Y. Zhang, P. Karamchandani, and D. G. Streets
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9379–9402, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9379-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9379-2014, 2014
J. He and Y. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9171–9200, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9171-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9171-2014, 2014
B. Gantt, J. He, X. Zhang, Y. Zhang, and A. Nenes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7485–7497, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7485-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7485-2014, 2014
F. Yan, E. Winijkul, D. G. Streets, Z. Lu, T. C. Bond, and Y. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5709–5733, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5709-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5709-2014, 2014
M. Li, Q. Zhang, D. G. Streets, K. B. He, Y. F. Cheng, L. K. Emmons, H. Huo, S. C. Kang, Z. Lu, M. Shao, H. Su, X. Yu, and Y. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5617–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5617-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5617-2014, 2014
S. Itahashi, I. Uno, H. Irie, J.-I. Kurokawa, and T. Ohara
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3623–3635, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3623-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3623-2014, 2014
L. T. Wang, Z. Wei, J. Yang, Y. Zhang, F. F. Zhang, J. Su, C. C. Meng, and Q. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3151–3173, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3151-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3151-2014, 2014
B. H. Henderson, F. Akhtar, H. O. T. Pye, S. L. Napelenok, and W. T. Hutzell
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 339–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-339-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-339-2014, 2014
C.-M. Gan, J. Pleim, R. Mathur, C. Hogrefe, C. N. Long, J. Xing, S. Roselle, and C. Wei
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1701–1715, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1701-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1701-2014, 2014
A. Baklanov, K. Schlünzen, P. Suppan, J. Baldasano, D. Brunner, S. Aksoyoglu, G. Carmichael, J. Douros, J. Flemming, R. Forkel, S. Galmarini, M. Gauss, G. Grell, M. Hirtl, S. Joffre, O. Jorba, E. Kaas, M. Kaasik, G. Kallos, X. Kong, U. Korsholm, A. Kurganskiy, J. Kushta, U. Lohmann, A. Mahura, A. Manders-Groot, A. Maurizi, N. Moussiopoulos, S. T. Rao, N. Savage, C. Seigneur, R. S. Sokhi, E. Solazzo, S. Solomos, B. Sørensen, G. Tsegas, E. Vignati, B. Vogel, and Y. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 317–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-317-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-317-2014, 2014
G. Sarwar, J. Godowitch, B. H. Henderson, K. Fahey, G. Pouliot, W. T. Hutzell, R. Mathur, D. Kang, W. S. Goliff, and W. R. Stockwell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9695–9712, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9695-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9695-2013, 2013
J. Xing, J. Pleim, R. Mathur, G. Pouliot, C. Hogrefe, C.-M. Gan, and C. Wei
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7531–7549, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7531-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7531-2013, 2013
Y. Zhang, K. Sartelet, S.-Y. Wu, and C. Seigneur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6807–6843, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6807-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6807-2013, 2013
Y. Zhang, K. Sartelet, S. Zhu, W. Wang, S.-Y. Wu, X. Zhang, K. Wang, P. Tran, C. Seigneur, and Z.-F. Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6845–6875, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6845-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6845-2013, 2013
K. W. Appel, G. A. Pouliot, H. Simon, G. Sarwar, H. O. T. Pye, S. L. Napelenok, F. Akhtar, and S. J. Roselle
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 883–899, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-883-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-883-2013, 2013
H. Irie, K. Yamaji, K. Ikeda, I. Uno, S. Itahashi, T. Ohara, and J. Kurokawa
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-13-14037-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-13-14037-2013, 2013
Preprint withdrawn
Related subject area
Atmospheric sciences
Development of the CMA-GFS-AERO 4D-Var assimilation system v1.0 – Part 1: System description and preliminary experimental results
Optimized dynamic mode decomposition for reconstruction and forecasting of atmospheric chemistry data
Interpolating turbulent heat fluxes missing from a prairie observation on the Tibetan Plateau using artificial intelligence models
Carbon dioxide plume dispersion simulated at the hectometer scale using DALES: model formulation and observational evaluation
Low-level jets in the North and Baltic seas: mesoscale model sensitivity and climatology using WRF V4.2.1
SynRad v1.0: a radar forward operator to simulate synthetic weather radar observations from volcanic ash clouds
Chempath 1.0: an open-source pathway analysis program for photochemical models
PALACE v1.0: Paranal Airglow Line And Continuum Emission model
Atmospheric moisture tracking with WAM2layers v3
A new set of indicators for model evaluation complementing FAIRMODE's modelling quality objective (MQO)
Impact of multiple radar wind profiler data assimilation on convective-scale short-term rainfall forecasts: OSSE studies over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region
New submodel for emissions from Explosive Volcanic ERuptions (EVER v1.1) within the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy, version 2.55.1)
Quantifying the oscillatory evolution of simulated boundary-layer cloud fields using Gaussian process regression
Numerical investigations on the modelling of ultrafine particles in SSH-aerosol-v1.3a: size resolution and redistribution
The third Met Office Unified Model–JULES Regional Atmosphere and Land Configuration, RAL3
The sensitivity of aerosol data assimilation to vertical profiles: case study of dust storm assimilation with LOTOS-EUROS v2.2
Knowledge-inspired fusion strategies for the inference of PM2.5 values with a neural network
Tuning the ICON-A 2.6.4 climate model with machine-learning-based emulators and history matching
A novel method for quantifying the contribution of regional transport to PM2.5 in Beijing (2013–2020): combining machine learning with concentration-weighted trajectory analysis
Quantification of CO2 hotspot emissions from OCO-3 SAM CO2 satellite images using deep learning methods
Diagnosis of winter precipitation types using the spectral bin model (version 1DSBM-19M): comparison of five methods using ICE-POP 2018 field experiment data
Improving winter condition simulations in SURFEX-TEB v9.0 with a multi-layer snow model and ice
UA-ICON with the NWP physics package (version ua-icon-2.1): mean state and variability of the middle atmosphere
Integrated Methane Inversion (IMI) 2.0: an improved research and stakeholder tool for monitoring total methane emissions with high resolution worldwide using TROPOMI satellite observations
HTAP3 Fires: towards a multi-model, multi-pollutant study of fire impacts
Using a data-driven statistical model to better evaluate surface turbulent heat fluxes in weather and climate numerical models: a demonstration study
Pochva: a new hydro-thermal process model in soil, snow, and vegetation for application in atmosphere numerical models
ClimKern v1.2: a new Python package and kernel repository for calculating radiative feedbacks
Accounting for effects of coagulation and model uncertainties in particle number concentration estimates based on measurements from sampling lines – a Bayesian inversion approach with SLIC v1.0
Top-down CO emission estimates using TROPOMI CO data in the TM5-4DVAR (r1258) inverse modeling suit
The Multi-Compartment Hg Modeling and Analysis Project (MCHgMAP): mercury modeling to support international environmental policy
Similarity-based analysis of atmospheric organic compounds for machine learning applications
The Atmospheric Potential Oxygen forward Model Intercomparison Project (APO-MIP1): Evaluating simulated atmospheric transport of air-sea gas exchange tracers and APO flux products
Porting the Meso-NH atmospheric model on different GPU architectures for the next generation of supercomputers (version MESONH-v55-OpenACC)
Estimation of aerosol and cloud radiative heating rate in the tropical stratosphere using a radiative kernel method
Development of a High-Resolution Coupled SHiELD-MOM6 Model. Part I – Model Overview, Coupling Technique, and Validation in a Regional Setup
Evaluation of dust emission and land surface schemes in predicting a mega Asian dust storm over South Korea using WRF-Chem
Sensitivity studies of a four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter coupled with WRF-Chem version 3.9.1 for improving particulate matter simulation accuracy
A Bayesian method for predicting background radiation at environmental monitoring stations in local-scale networks
Inclusion of the ECMWF ecRad radiation scheme (v1.5.0) in the MAR (v3.14), regional evaluation for Belgium, and assessment of surface shortwave spectral fluxes at Uccle
Development of a fast radiative transfer model for ground-based microwave radiometers (ARMS-gb v1.0): validation and comparison to RTTOV-gb
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) High-Resolution Global Forecast Model version 1: an attempt to resolve monsoon prediction deadlock
Cell-tracking-based framework for assessing nowcasting model skill in reproducing growth and decay of convective rainfall
NeuralMie (v1.0): an aerosol optics emulator
A REtrieval Method for optical and physical Aerosol Properties in the stratosphere (REMAPv1)
Simulation performance of planetary boundary layer schemes in WRF v4.3.1 for near-surface wind over the western Sichuan Basin: a single-site assessment
FootNet v1.0: development of a machine learning emulator of atmospheric transport
Updates and evaluation of NOAA's online-coupled air quality model version 7 (AQMv7) within the Unified Forecast System
Quantifying the analysis uncertainty for nowcasting application
Improving the ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) in the Community Inversion Framework: a case study with ICON-ART 2024.01
Yongzhu Liu, Xiaoye Zhang, Wei Han, Chao Wang, Wenxing Jia, Deying Wang, Zhaorong Zhuang, and Xueshun Shen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4855–4876, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4855-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4855-2025, 2025
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In order to investigate the feedbacks of chemical data assimilation on meteorological forecasts, we developed a strongly coupled aerosol–meteorology four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) assimilation system, CMA-GFS-AERO 4D-Var, based on the framework of the incremental analysis scheme of the China Meteorological Administration Global Forecasting System (CMA-GFS) operational global numerical weather model. The results show that assimilating BC (black carbon) observations can generate analysis increments not only for BC but also for atmospheric variables.
Meghana Velagar, Christoph Keller, and J. Nathan Kutz
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4667–4684, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4667-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4667-2025, 2025
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We develop the data-driven method of dynamic mode decomposition for producing a robust and stable surrogate reduced-order model of atmospheric chemistry dynamics. The model is computationally efficient, provides interpretable patterns of activity, and produces uncertainty quantification metrics. It is ideal for the forecasting of atmospheric chemistry in a computationally tractable manner.
Quanzhe Hou, Zhiqiu Gao, Zexia Duan, and Minghui Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4625–4641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4625-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4625-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates various machine learning and statistical methods for interpolating turbulent heat flux data over the Tibetan Plateau. The Transformer model showed the best performance, leading to the development of the Transformer_CNN model, which combines global and local attention mechanisms. Results show that Transformer_CNN outperforms the other models and was successfully applied to interpolate heat flux data from 2007 to 2016.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Fredrik Jansson, Bart J. H. van Stratum, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, and Sander Houweling
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4571–4599, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4571-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4571-2025, 2025
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We introduce a new simulation platform based on the Dutch Atmospheric Large-Eddy Simulation (DALES) to simulate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their dispersion in turbulent environments at a hectometer resolution. This model incorporates both anthropogenic emission inventories and online ecosystem fluxes. Simulation results for the main urban area in the Netherlands demonstrate the strong potential of DALES to improve CO2 emission modeling and to support mitigation strategies.
Bjarke T. E. Olsen, Andrea N. Hahmann, Nicolas G. Alonso-de-Linaje, Mark Žagar, and Martin Dörenkämper
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4499–4533, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4499-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4499-2025, 2025
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Low-level jets (LLJs) are strong winds in the lower atmosphere that are important for wind energy as turbines get taller. This study compares a weather model (WRF) with real data across five North and Baltic Sea sites. Adjusting the model improved accuracy over the widely used ERA5. In key offshore regions, LLJs occur 10–15 % of the time and significantly boost wind power, especially in spring and summer, contributing up to 30 % of total capacity in some areas.
Vishnu Nair, Anujah Mohanathan, Michael Herzog, David G. Macfarlane, and Duncan A. Robertson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4417–4432, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4417-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4417-2025, 2025
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A numerical model that simulates the measurement processes behind the ground-based radars used to detect volcanic ash clouds is introduced. Using weather radars to detect volcanic clouds is not ideal, as fine ash particles are smaller than raindrops and remain undetected. We evaluate the performance of weather radars to study ash clouds and to identify optimal frequencies that balance the trade-off between a higher return signal and the higher path attenuation that comes at these higher frequencies.
Daniel Garduno Ruiz, Colin Goldblatt, and Anne-Sofie Ahm
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4433–4454, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4433-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4433-2025, 2025
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Photochemical models describe how the composition of the atmosphere changes due to chemical reactions, transport, and other processes. These models are useful for studying the composition of the Earth's and other planets' atmospheres. Understanding the results of these models can be difficult. Here, we build on previous work to develop open-source code that can identify the reaction chains (pathways) that produce the results of these models, facilitating the understanding of these results.
Stefan Noll, Carsten Schmidt, Patrick Hannawald, Wolfgang Kausch, and Stefan Kimeswenger
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4353–4398, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4353-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4353-2025, 2025
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Non-thermal emission from chemical reactions in the Earth's middle und upper atmosphere strongly contributes to the brightness of the night sky below about 2.3 µm. The new Paranal Airglow Line And Continuum Emission model calculates the emission spectrum and its variability with an unprecedented accuracy. Relying on a large spectroscopic data set from astronomical spectrographs and theoretical molecular/atomic data, this model is valuable for airglow research and astronomical observatories.
Peter Kalverla, Imme Benedict, Chris Weijenborg, and Ruud J. van der Ent
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4335–4352, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4335-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4335-2025, 2025
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We introduce a new version of WAM2layers (Water Accounting Model – 2 layers), a computer program that tracks how the weather brings water from one place to another. It uses data from weather and climate models, whose resolution is steadily increasing. Processing the latest data had become a challenge, and the updates presented here ensure that WAM2layers runs smoothly again. We also made it easier to use the program and to understand its source code. This makes it more transparent, reliable, and easier to maintain.
Alexander de Meij, Cornelis Cuvelier, Philippe Thunis, and Enrico Pisoni
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4231–4245, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4231-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4231-2025, 2025
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We assess relevance and utility indicators by evaluating nine Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service models in calculated air pollutant values. For NO2, the results highlight difficulties at traffic stations. For PM2.5 and PM10 the bias and winter–summer gradients reveal issues. O3 evaluation shows that seasonal gradients are useful. Overall, the indicators reveal model limitations, yet there is a need to reconsider the strictness of some indicators for certain pollutants.
Juan Zhao, Jianping Guo, and Xiaohui Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4075–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4075-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4075-2025, 2025
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A series of observing system simulation experiments are conducted to assess the impact of multiple radar wind profiler (RWP) networks on convective-scale numerical weather prediction. Results from three southwest-type heavy rainfall cases in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region suggest the added forecast skill of ridge and foothill networks associated with the Taihang Mountains over the existing RWP network. This research provides valuable guidance for designing optimal RWP networks in the region.
Matthias Kohl, Christoph Brühl, Jennifer Schallock, Holger Tost, Patrick Jöckel, Adrian Jost, Steffen Beirle, Michael Höpfner, and Andrea Pozzer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3985–4007, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3985-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3985-2025, 2025
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SO2 from explosive volcanic eruptions reaching the stratosphere can oxidize and form sulfur aerosols, potentially persisting for several years. We developed a new submodel, Explosive Volcanic ERuptions (EVER), that seamlessly includes stratospheric volcanic SO2 emissions in global numerical simulations based on a novel standard historical model setup, successfully evaluated with satellite observations. Sensitivity studies on the Nabro eruption in 2011 evaluate different emission methods.
Gunho Loren Oh and Philip H. Austin
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3921–3940, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3921-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3921-2025, 2025
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It is difficult to study the behaviour of a cloud field due to internal fluctuations and observational noise. We perform a high-resolution simulation of the boundary-layer cloud field and introduce statistical and numerical techniques, including machine-learning models, to study the evolution of the cloud field, which shows a periodic behaviour. We aim to use the numerical techniques to identify the underlying behaviour within noisy observations.
Oscar Jacquot and Karine Sartelet
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3965–3984, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3965-2025, 2025
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Modelling the size distribution and the number concentration is important to represent ultrafine particles. A new analytic formulation is presented to compute coagulation partition coefficients, allowing us to lower the numerical diffusion associated with the resolution of aerosol dynamics. The significance of this effect is assessed in a 0D box model and over greater Paris with a chemistry transport model, using different size resolutions of the particle distribution.
Mike Bush, David L. A. Flack, Huw W. Lewis, Sylvia I. Bohnenstengel, Chris J. Short, Charmaine Franklin, Adrian P. Lock, Martin Best, Paul Field, Anne McCabe, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Segolene Berthou, Ian Boutle, Jennifer K. Brooke, Seb Cole, Shaun Cooper, Gareth Dow, John Edwards, Anke Finnenkoetter, Kalli Furtado, Kate Halladay, Kirsty Hanley, Margaret A. Hendry, Adrian Hill, Aravindakshan Jayakumar, Richard W. Jones, Humphrey Lean, Joshua C. K. Lee, Andy Malcolm, Marion Mittermaier, Saji Mohandas, Stuart Moore, Cyril Morcrette, Rachel North, Aurore Porson, Susan Rennie, Nigel Roberts, Belinda Roux, Claudio Sanchez, Chun-Hsu Su, Simon Tucker, Simon Vosper, David Walters, James Warner, Stuart Webster, Mark Weeks, Jonathan Wilkinson, Michael Whitall, Keith D. Williams, and Hugh Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3819–3855, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3819-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3819-2025, 2025
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RAL configurations define settings for the Unified Model atmosphere and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator. The third version of the Regional Atmosphere and Land (RAL3) science configuration for kilometre- and sub-kilometre-scale modelling represents a major advance compared to previous versions (RAL2) by delivering a common science definition for applications in tropical and mid-latitude regions. RAL3 has more realistic precipitation distributions and an improved representation of clouds and visibility.
Mijie Pang, Jianbing Jin, Ting Yang, Xi Chen, Arjo Segers, Batjargal Buyantogtokh, Yixuan Gu, Jiandong Li, Hai Xiang Lin, Hong Liao, and Wei Han
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3781–3798, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3781-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3781-2025, 2025
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Aerosol data assimilation has gained popularity as it combines the advantages of modelling and observation. However, few studies have addressed the challenges in the prior vertical structure. Different observations are assimilated to examine the sensitivity of assimilation to vertical structure. Results show that assimilation can optimize the dust field in general. However, if the prior introduces an incorrect structure, the assimilation can significantly deteriorate the integrity of the aerosol profile.
Matthieu Dabrowski, José Mennesson, Jérôme Riedi, Chaabane Djeraba, and Pierre Nabat
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3707–3733, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3707-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3707-2025, 2025
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This work focuses on the prediction of aerosol concentration values at the ground level, which are a strong indicator of air quality, using artificial neural networks. A study of different variables and their efficiency as inputs for these models is also proposed and reveals that the best results are obtained when using all of them. Comparison between network architectures and information fusion methods allows for the extraction of knowledge on the most efficient methods in the context of this study.
Pauline Bonnet, Lorenzo Pastori, Mierk Schwabe, Marco Giorgetta, Fernando Iglesias-Suarez, and Veronika Eyring
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3681–3706, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3681-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3681-2025, 2025
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Tuning a climate model means adjusting uncertain parameters in the model to best match observations like the global radiation balance and cloud cover. This is usually done by running many simulations of the model with different settings, which can be time-consuming and relies heavily on expert knowledge. To make this process faster and more objective, we developed a machine learning emulator to create a large ensemble and apply a method called history matching to find the best settings.
Kang Hu, Hong Liao, Dantong Liu, Jianbing Jin, Lei Chen, Siyuan Li, Yangzhou Wu, Changhao Wu, Shitong Zhao, Xiaotong Jiang, Ping Tian, Kai Bi, Ye Wang, and Delong Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3623–3634, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3623-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3623-2025, 2025
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This study combines machine learning with concentration-weighted trajectory analysis to quantify regional transport PM2.5. From 2013–2020, local emissions dominated Beijing's pollution events. The Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan reduced regional transport pollution, but the eastern region showed the smallest decrease. Beijing should prioritize local emission reduction while considering the east region's contributions in future strategies.
Joffrey Dumont Le Brazidec, Pierre Vanderbecken, Alban Farchi, Grégoire Broquet, Gerrit Kuhlmann, and Marc Bocquet
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3607–3622, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3607-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3607-2025, 2025
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We developed a deep learning method to estimate CO2 emissions from power plants using satellite images. Trained and validated on simulated data, our model accurately predicts emissions despite challenges like cloud cover. When applied to real OCO3 satellite images, the results closely match reported emissions. This study shows that neural networks trained on simulations can effectively analyse real satellite data, offering a new way to monitor CO2 emissions from space.
Wonbae Bang, Jacob T. Carlin, Kwonil Kim, Alexander V. Ryzhkov, Guosheng Liu, and GyuWon Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3559–3581, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3559-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3559-2025, 2025
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Microphysics model-based diagnosis, such as the spectral bin model (SBM), has recently been attempted to diagnose winter precipitation types. In this study, the accuracy of SBM-based precipitation type diagnosis is compared with other traditional methods. SBM has a relatively higher accuracy for dry-snow and wet-snow events, whereas it has lower accuracy for rain events. When the microphysics scheme in the SBM was optimized for the corresponding region, the accuracy for rain events improved.
Gabriel Colas, Valéry Masson, François Bouttier, Ludovic Bouilloud, Laura Pavan, and Virve Karsisto
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3453–3472, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3453-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3453-2025, 2025
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In winter, snow- and ice-covered artificial surfaces are important aspects of the urban climate. They may influence the magnitude of the urban heat island effect, but this is still unclear. In this study, we improved the representation of the snow and ice cover in the Town Energy Balance (TEB) urban climate model. Evaluations have shown that the results are promising for using TEB to study the climate of cold cities.
Markus Kunze, Christoph Zülicke, Tarique A. Siddiqui, Claudia C. Stephan, Yosuke Yamazaki, Claudia Stolle, Sebastian Borchert, and Hauke Schmidt
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3359–3385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3359-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3359-2025, 2025
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We present the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) general circulation model with an upper-atmospheric extension with the physics package for numerical weather prediction (UA-ICON(NWP)). We optimized the parameters for the gravity wave parameterizations and achieved realistic modeling of the thermal and dynamic states of the mesopause regions. UA-ICON(NWP) now shows a realistic frequency of major sudden stratospheric warmings and well-represented solar tides in temperature.
Lucas A. Estrada, Daniel J. Varon, Melissa Sulprizio, Hannah Nesser, Zichong Chen, Nicholas Balasus, Sarah E. Hancock, Megan He, James D. East, Todd A. Mooring, Alexander Oort Alonso, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Ilse Aben, Sabour Baray, Kevin W. Bowman, John R. Worden, Felipe J. Cardoso-Saldaña, Emily Reidy, and Daniel J. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3311–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3311-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3311-2025, 2025
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Reducing emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, is a top policy concern for mitigating anthropogenic climate change. The Integrated Methane Inversion (IMI) is an advanced, cloud-based software that translates satellite observations into actionable emissions data. Here we present IMI version 2.0 with vastly expanded capabilities. These updates enable a wider range of scientific and stakeholder applications from individual basin to global scales with continuous emissions monitoring.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Tim Butler, Jose A. Adame, Rupal Ambulkar, Steve R. Arnold, Rebecca R. Buchholz, Benjamin Gaubert, Douglas S. Hamilton, Min Huang, Hayley Hung, Johannes W. Kaiser, Jacek W. Kaminski, Christoph Knote, Gerbrand Koren, Jean-Luc Kouassi, Meiyun Lin, Tianjia Liu, Jianmin Ma, Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon, Elisa Bergas Masso, Jessica L. McCarty, Mariano Mertens, Mark Parrington, Helene Peiro, Pallavi Saxena, Saurabh Sonwani, Vanisa Surapipith, Damaris Y. T. Tan, Wenfu Tang, Veerachai Tanpipat, Kostas Tsigaridis, Christine Wiedinmyer, Oliver Wild, Yuanyu Xie, and Paquita Zuidema
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3265–3309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3265-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3265-2025, 2025
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The multi-model experiment design of the HTAP3 Fires project takes a multi-pollutant approach to improving our understanding of transboundary transport of wildland fire and agricultural burning emissions and their impacts. The experiments are designed with the goal of answering science policy questions related to fires. The options for the multi-model approach, including inputs, outputs, and model setup, are discussed, and the official recommendations for the project are presented.
Maurin Zouzoua, Sophie Bastin, Fabienne Lohou, Marie Lothon, Marjolaine Chiriaco, Mathilde Jome, Cécile Mallet, Laurent Barthes, and Guylaine Canut
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3211–3239, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3211-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3211-2025, 2025
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This study proposes using a statistical model to freeze errors due to differences in environmental forcing when evaluating the surface turbulent heat fluxes from numerical simulations with observations. The statistical model is first built with observations and then applied to the simulated environment to generate possibly observed fluxes. This novel method provides insight into differently evaluating the numerical formulation of turbulent heat fluxes with a long period of observational data.
Oxana Drofa
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3175–3209, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3175-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3175-2025, 2025
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This paper presents the result of many years of effort of the author, who developed an original mathematical numerical model of heat and moisture exchange processes in soil, vegetation, and snow. The author relied on her 30 years of research experience in atmospheric numerical modelling. The presented model is the fruit of the author's research on physical processes at the surface–atmosphere interface and their numerical approximation and aims at improving numerical weather forecasting and climate simulations.
Tyler P. Janoski, Ivan Mitevski, Ryan J. Kramer, Michael Previdi, and Lorenzo M. Polvani
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3065–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3065-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3065-2025, 2025
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We developed ClimKern, a Python package and radiative kernel repository, to simplify calculating radiative feedbacks and make climate sensitivity studies more reproducible. Testing of ClimKern with sample climate model data reveals that radiative kernel choice may be more important than previously thought, especially in polar regions. Our work highlights the need for kernel sensitivity analyses to be included in future studies.
Matti Niskanen, Aku Seppänen, Henri Oikarinen, Miska Olin, Panu Karjalainen, Santtu Mikkonen, and Kari Lehtinen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2983–3001, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2983-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2983-2025, 2025
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Particle size is a key factor determining the properties of aerosol particles which have a major influence on the climate and on human health. When measuring the particle sizes, however, sometimes the sampling lines that transfer the aerosol to the measurement device distort the size distribution, making the measurement unreliable. We propose a method to correct for the distortions and estimate the true particle sizes, improving measurement accuracy.
Johann Rasmus Nüß, Nikos Daskalakis, Fabian Günther Piwowarczyk, Angelos Gkouvousis, Oliver Schneising, Michael Buchwitz, Maria Kanakidou, Maarten C. Krol, and Mihalis Vrekoussis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2861–2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2861-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2861-2025, 2025
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We estimate carbon monoxide emissions through inverse modeling, an approach where measurements of tracers in the atmosphere are fed to a model to calculate backwards in time (inverse) where the tracers came from. We introduce measurements from a new satellite instrument and show that, in most places globally, these on their own sufficiently constrain the emissions. This alleviates the need for additional datasets, which could shorten the delay for future carbon monoxide source estimates.
Ashu Dastoor, Hélène Angot, Johannes Bieser, Flora Brocza, Brock Edwards, Aryeh Feinberg, Xinbin Feng, Benjamin Geyman, Charikleia Gournia, Yipeng He, Ian M. Hedgecock, Ilia Ilyin, Jane Kirk, Che-Jen Lin, Igor Lehnherr, Robert Mason, David McLagan, Marilena Muntean, Peter Rafaj, Eric M. Roy, Andrei Ryjkov, Noelle E. Selin, Francesco De Simone, Anne L. Soerensen, Frits Steenhuisen, Oleg Travnikov, Shuxiao Wang, Xun Wang, Simon Wilson, Rosa Wu, Qingru Wu, Yanxu Zhang, Jun Zhou, Wei Zhu, and Scott Zolkos
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2747–2860, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2747-2025, 2025
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This paper introduces the Multi-Compartment Mercury (Hg) Modeling and Analysis Project (MCHgMAP) aimed at informing the effectiveness evaluations of two multilateral environmental agreements: the Minamata Convention on Mercury and the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. The experimental design exploits a variety of models (atmospheric, land, oceanic ,and multimedia mass balance models) to assess the short- and long-term influences of anthropogenic Hg releases into the environment.
Hilda Sandström and Patrick Rinke
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2701–2724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2701-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2701-2025, 2025
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Machine learning has the potential to aid the identification of organic molecules involved in aerosol formation. Yet, progress is stalled by a lack of curated atmospheric molecular datasets. Here, we compared atmospheric compounds with large molecular datasets used in machine learning and found minimal overlap with similarity algorithms. Our result underlines the need for collaborative efforts to curate atmospheric molecular data to facilitate machine learning models in atmospheric sciences.
Yuming Jin, Britton B. Stephens, Matthew C. Long, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Joram J. D. Hooghiem, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Shamil Maksyutov, Eric J. Morgan, Yosuke Niwa, Prabir K. Patra, Christian Rödenbeck, and Jesse Vance
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1736, 2025
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We carry out a comprehensive atmospheric transport model (ATM) intercomparison project. This project aims to evaluate errors in ATMs and three air-sea O2 exchange products by comparing model simulations with observations collected from surface stations, ships, and aircraft. We also present a model evaluation framework to independently quantify transport-related and flux-related biases that contribute to model-observation discrepancies in atmospheric tracer distributions.
Juan Escobar, Philippe Wautelet, Joris Pianezze, Florian Pantillon, Thibaut Dauhut, Christelle Barthe, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2679–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2679-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2679-2025, 2025
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The Meso-NH weather research code is adapted for GPUs using OpenACC, leading to significant performance and energy efficiency improvements. Called MESONH-v55-OpenACC, it includes enhanced memory management, communication optimizations and a new solver. On the AMD MI250X Adastra platform, it achieved up to 6× speedup and 2.3× energy efficiency gain compared to CPUs. Storm simulations at 100 m resolution show positive results, positioning the code for future use on exascale supercomputers.
Jie Gao, Yi Huang, Jonathon S. Wright, Ke Li, Tao Geng, and Qiurun Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2569–2586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2569-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2569-2025, 2025
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The aerosol in the upper troposphere and stratosphere is highly variable, and its radiative effect is poorly understood. To estimate this effect, the radiative kernel is constructed and applied. The results show that the kernels can reproduce aerosol radiative effects and are expected to simulate stratospheric aerosol radiative effects. This approach reduces computational expense, is consistent with radiative model calculations, and can be applied to atmospheric models with speed requirements.
Joseph Mouallem, Kun Gao, Brandon G. Reichl, Lauren Chilutti, Lucas Harris, Rusty Benson, Niki Zadeh, Jing Chen, Jan-Huey Chen, and Cheng Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1690, 2025
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We introduce a new high-resolution model that couple the atmosphere and ocean to better simulate extreme weather events. It combines GFDL’s advanced atmospheric and ocean models with a powerful coupling system that allows robust and efficient two-way interactions. Simulations show the model accurately captures hurricane behavior and its impact on the ocean. It also runs efficiently on supercomputers. This model is a key step toward improving extreme weather forecast.
Ji Won Yoon, Seungyeon Lee, Ebony Lee, and Seon Ki Park
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2303–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to predict a mega Asian dust storm (ADS) over South Korea on 28–29 March 2021. We assessed combinations of five dust emission and four land surface schemes by analyzing meteorological and air quality variables. The best scheme combination reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) for particulate matter 10 (PM10) by up to 29.6 %, demonstrating the highest performance.
Jianyu Lin, Tie Dai, Lifang Sheng, Weihang Zhang, Shangfei Hai, and Yawen Kong
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2231–2248, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, 2025
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The effectiveness of this assimilation system and its sensitivity to the ensemble member size and length of the assimilation window are investigated. This study advances our understanding of the selection of basic parameters in the four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter assimilation system and the performance of ensemble simulation in a particulate-matter-polluted environment.
Jens Peter Karolus Wenceslaus Frankemölle, Johan Camps, Pieter De Meutter, and Johan Meyers
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1989–2003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, 2025
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To detect anomalous radioactivity in the environment, it is paramount that we understand the natural background level. In this work, we propose a statistical model to describe the most likely background level and the associated uncertainty in a network of dose rate detectors. We train, verify, and validate the model using real environmental data. Using the model, we show that we can correctly predict the background level in a subset of the detector network during a known
anomalous event.
Jean-François Grailet, Robin J. Hogan, Nicolas Ghilain, David Bolsée, Xavier Fettweis, and Marilaure Grégoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1965–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, 2025
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The MAR (Modèle Régional Atmosphérique) is a regional climate model used for weather forecasting and studying the climate over various regions. This paper presents an update of MAR thanks to which it can precisely decompose solar radiation, in particular in the UV (ultraviolet) and photosynthesis ranges, both being critical to human health and ecosystems. As a first application of this new capability, this paper presents a method for predicting UV indices with MAR.
Yi-Ning Shi, Jun Yang, Wei Han, Lujie Han, Jiajia Mao, Wanlin Kan, and Fuzhong Weng
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1947–1964, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, 2025
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Direct assimilation of observations from ground-based microwave radiometers (GMRs) holds significant potential for improving forecast accuracy. Radiative transfer models (RTMs) play a crucial role in direct data assimilation. In this study, we introduce a new RTM, the Advanced Radiative Transfer Modeling System – Ground-Based (ARMS-gb), designed to simulate brightness temperatures observed by GMRs along with their Jacobians. Several enhancements have been incorporated to achieve higher accuracy.
R. Phani Murali Krishna, Siddharth Kumar, A. Gopinathan Prajeesh, Peter Bechtold, Nils Wedi, Kumar Roy, Malay Ganai, B. Revanth Reddy, Snehlata Tirkey, Tanmoy Goswami, Radhika Kanase, Sahadat Sarkar, Medha Deshpande, and Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1879–1894, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, 2025
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The High-Resolution Global Forecast Model (HGFM) is an advanced iteration of the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) model. HGFM can produce forecasts at a spatial scale of ~6 km in tropics. It demonstrates improved accuracy in short- to medium-range weather prediction over the Indian region, with notable success in predicting extreme events. Further, the model will be entrusted to operational forecasting agencies after validation and testing.
Jenna Ritvanen, Seppo Pulkkinen, Dmitri Moisseev, and Daniele Nerini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1851–1878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, 2025
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Nowcasting models struggle with the rapid evolution of heavy rain, and common verification methods are unable to describe how accurately the models predict the growth and decay of heavy rain. We propose a framework to assess model performance. In the framework, convective cells are identified and tracked in the forecasts and observations, and the model skill is then evaluated by comparing differences between forecast and observed cells. We demonstrate the framework with four open-source models.
Andrew Geiss and Po-Lun Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1809–1827, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, 2025
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Particles in the Earth's atmosphere strongly impact the planet's energy budget, and atmosphere simulations require accurate representation of their interaction with light. This work introduces two approaches to represent light scattering by small particles. The first is a scattering simulator based on Mie theory implemented in Python. The second is a neural network emulator that is more accurate than existing methods and is fast enough to be used in climate and weather simulations.
Andrin Jörimann, Timofei Sukhodolov, Beiping Luo, Gabriel Chiodo, Graham Mann, and Thomas Peter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-145, 2025
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Aerosol particles in the stratosphere affect our climate. Climate models therefore need an accurate description of their properties and evolution. Satellites measure how strongly aerosol particles extinguish light passing through the stratosphere. We describe a method to use such aerosol extinction data to retrieve the number and sizes of the aerosol particles and calculate their optical effects. The resulting data sets for models are validated against ground-based and balloon observations.
Qin Wang, Bo Zeng, Gong Chen, and Yaoting Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1769–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates the performance of four planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in near-surface wind fields over the Sichuan Basin, China. Using 112 sensitivity experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and focusing on 28 wind events, it is found that wind direction was less sensitive to the PBL schemes. The quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE) scheme captured temporal variations best, while the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ) scheme had the least error in wind speed.
Tai-Long He, Nikhil Dadheech, Tammy M. Thompson, and Alexander J. Turner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1661–1671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, 2025
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It is computationally expensive to infer greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions using atmospheric observations. This is partly due to the detailed model used to represent atmospheric transport. We demonstrate how a machine learning (ML) model can be used to simulate high-resolution atmospheric transport. This type of ML model will help estimate GHG emissions using dense observations, which are becoming increasingly common with the proliferation of urban monitoring networks and geostationary satellites.
Wei Li, Beiming Tang, Patrick C. Campbell, Youhua Tang, Barry Baker, Zachary Moon, Daniel Tong, Jianping Huang, Kai Wang, Ivanka Stajner, and Raffaele Montuoro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1635–1660, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, 2025
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The study describes the updates of NOAA's current UFS-AQMv7 air quality forecast model by incorporating the latest scientific and structural changes in CMAQv5.4. An evaluation during the summer of 2023 shows that the updated model overall improves the simulation of MDA8 O3 by reducing the bias by 8%–12% in the contiguous US. PM2.5 predictions have mixed results due to wildfire, highlighting the need for future refinements.
Yanwei Zhu, Aitor Atencia, Markus Dabernig, and Yong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1545–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, 2025
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Most works have delved into convective weather nowcasting, and only a few works have discussed the nowcasting uncertainty for variables at the surface level. Hence, we proposed a method to estimate uncertainty. Generating appropriate noises associated with the characteristic of the error in analysis can simulate the uncertainty of nowcasting. This method can contribute to the estimation of near–surface analysis uncertainty in both nowcasting applications and ensemble nowcasting development.
Joël Thanwerdas, Antoine Berchet, Lionel Constantin, Aki Tsuruta, Michael Steiner, Friedemann Reum, Stephan Henne, and Dominik Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1505–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, 2025
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The Community Inversion Framework (CIF) brings together methods for estimating greenhouse gas fluxes from atmospheric observations. The initial ensemble method implemented in CIF was found to be incomplete and could hardly be compared to other ensemble methods employed in the inversion community. In this paper, we present and evaluate a new implementation of the ensemble mode, building upon the initial developments.
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Short summary
The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system extended for hemispheric-scale applications (H-CMAQ) incorporated the satellite-constrained degassing SO2 emissions from 50 volcanos across the Northern Hemisphere. The impact on tropospheric sulfate aerosol (SO42−) is assessed for 2010. Although the considered volcanic emissions occurred at or below the middle of free troposphere (500 hPa), SO42− enhancements of more than 10 % were detected up to the top of free troposphere (250 hPa).
The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system extended for hemispheric-scale...
