Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
15 Feb 2019
Model description paper |
| 15 Feb 2019
| 15 Feb 2019
GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems
Katherine Calvin
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research
Institute, College Park, MD, USA
Pralit Patel
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research
Institute, College Park, MD, USA
Leon Clarke
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research
Institute, College Park, MD, USA
Ghassem Asrar
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research
Institute, College Park, MD, USA
Ben Bond-Lamberty
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research
Institute, College Park, MD, USA
Ryna Yiyun Cui
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research
Institute, College Park, MD, USA
Alan Di Vittorio
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
Kalyn Dorheim
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research
Institute, College Park, MD, USA
Jae Edmonds
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research
Institute, College Park, MD, USA
Corinne Hartin
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research
Institute, College Park, MD, USA
Mohamad Hejazi
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research
Institute, College Park, MD, USA
Russell Horowitz
University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
Gokul Iyer
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research
Institute, College Park, MD, USA
Page Kyle
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research
Institute, College Park, MD, USA
Sonny Kim
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research
Institute, College Park, MD, USA
Robert Link
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research
Institute, College Park, MD, USA
Haewon McJeon
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research
Institute, College Park, MD, USA
Steven J. Smith
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research
Institute, College Park, MD, USA
Abigail Snyder
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research
Institute, College Park, MD, USA
Stephanie Waldhoff
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research
Institute, College Park, MD, USA
Marshall Wise
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research
Institute, College Park, MD, USA
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Robin N. Thor, Mariano Mertens, Sigrun Matthes, Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, Sabine Brinkop, Phoebe Graf, Volker Grewe, Patrick Jöckel, and Steven Smith
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Claudia Tebaldi, Abigail Snyder, and Kalyn Dorheim
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1557–1609, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1557-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1557-2022, 2022
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Steven J. Smith, Erin E. McDuffie, and Molly Charles
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13201–13218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13201-2022, 2022
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Yilin Fang, L. Ruby Leung, Ryan Knox, Charlie Koven, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6385–6398, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6385-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6385-2022, 2022
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Accounting for water movement in the soil and water transport within the plant is important for plant growth in Earth system modeling. We implemented different numerical approaches for a plant hydrodynamic model and compared their impacts on the simulated aboveground biomass (AGB) at single points and globally. We found care should be taken when discretizing the number of soil layers for numerical simulations as it can significantly affect AGB if accuracy and computational costs are of concern.
Matthew Binsted, Gokul Iyer, Pralit Patel, Neal T. Graham, Yang Ou, Zarrar Khan, Nazar Kholod, Kanishka Narayan, Mohamad Hejazi, Son Kim, Katherine Calvin, and Marshall Wise
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2533–2559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2533-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2533-2022, 2022
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GCAM-USA v5.3_water_dispatch is an open-source model that represents key interactions across economic, energy, water, and land systems in a global framework, with subnational detail in the United States. GCAM-USA can be used to explore future changes in demand for (and production of) energy, water, and crops at the state and regional level in the US. This paper describes GCAM-USA and provides four illustrative scenarios to demonstrate the model's capabilities and potential applications.
Sumanta Sarkhel, Gunter Stober, Jorge L. Chau, Steven M. Smith, Christoph Jacobi, Subarna Mondal, Martin G. Mlynczak, and James M. Russell III
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A rare gravity wave event was observed on the night of 25 April 2017 over northern Germany. An all-sky airglow imager recorded an upward-propagating wave at different altitudes in mesosphere with a prominent wave front above 91 km and faintly observed below. Based on wind and satellite-borne temperature profiles close to the event location, we have found the presence of a leaky thermal duct layer in 85–91 km. The appearance of this duct layer caused the wave amplitudes to diminish below 91 km.
Dong-Gill Kim, Ben Bond-Lamberty, Youngryel Ryu, Bumsuk Seo, and Dario Papale
Biogeosciences, 19, 1435–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1435-2022, 2022
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As carbon (C) and greenhouse gas (GHG) research has adopted appropriate technology and approach (AT&A), low-cost instruments, open-source software, and participatory research and their results were well accepted by scientific communities. In terms of cost, feasibility, and performance, the integration of low-cost and low-technology, participatory and networking-based research approaches can be AT&A for enhancing C and GHG research in developing countries.
Jinshi Jian, Xuan Du, Juying Jiao, Xiaohua Ren, Karl Auerswald, Ryan Stewart, Zeli Tan, Jianlin Zhao, Daniel L. Evans, Guangju Zhao, Nufang Fang, Wenyi Sun, Chao Yue, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-87, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Field soil loss and sediment yield due to surface runoff observations were compiled into a database named AWESOME: Archive for Water Erosion and Sediment Outflow MEasurements. Annual soil erosion data from 1985 geographic sites and 75 countries have been compiled into AWESOME. This database aims to be an open framework for the scientific community to share field-based annual soil erosion measurements, enabling better understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of annual soil erosion.
Fei Liu, Zhining Tao, Steffen Beirle, Joanna Joiner, Yasuko Yoshida, Steven J. Smith, K. Emma Knowland, and Thomas Wagner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1333–1349, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1333-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1333-2022, 2022
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In this work, we present a novel method to infer NOx emissions and lifetimes based on tropospheric NO2 observations together with reanalysis wind fields for cities located in polluted backgrounds. We evaluate the accuracy of the method using synthetic NO2 observations derived from a high-resolution model simulation. Our work provides an estimate for uncertainties in satellite-derived emissions inferred from chemical transport model (CTM)-independent approaches.
Katherine V. Calvin, Abigail Snyder, Xin Zhao, and Marshall Wise
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 429–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-429-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-429-2022, 2022
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Future changes in land use and cover have important implications for agriculture, energy, water use, and climate. In this study, we demonstrate a more systematic and empirically based approach to estimating a few key parameters for an economic model of land use and land cover change, gcamland. We identify parameter combinations that best replicate historical land use in the United States.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kalyn Dorheim, Michael Wehner, and Ruby Leung
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1427–1501, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1427-2021, 2021
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We address the question of how large an initial condition ensemble of climate model simulations should be if we are concerned with accurately projecting future changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We find that for most cases (and both models considered), an ensemble of 20–25 members is sufficient for many extreme metrics, spatial scales and time horizons. This may leave computational resources to tackle other uncertainties in climate model simulations with our ensembles.
Jan C. Minx, William F. Lamb, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Monica Crippa, Niklas Döbbeling, Piers M. Forster, Diego Guizzardi, Jos Olivier, Glen P. Peters, Julia Pongratz, Andy Reisinger, Matthew Rigby, Marielle Saunois, Steven J. Smith, Efisio Solazzo, and Hanqin Tian
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5213–5252, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021, 2021
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We provide a synthetic dataset on anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for 1970–2018 with a fast-track extension to 2019. We show that GHG emissions continued to rise across all gases and sectors. Annual average GHG emissions growth slowed, but absolute decadal increases have never been higher in human history. We identify a number of data gaps and data quality issues in global inventories and highlight their importance for monitoring progress towards international climate goals.
Dawn L. Woodard, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Ben Kravitz, Corinne Hartin, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4751–4767, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021, 2021
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We have added a representation of the permafrost carbon feedback to the simple, open-source global carbon–climate model Hector and calibrated the results to be consistent with historical data and Earth system model projections. Our results closely match previous work, estimating around 0.2 °C of warming from permafrost this century. This capability will be useful to explore uncertainties in this feedback and for coupling with integrated assessment models for policy and economic analysis.
Eva Sinha, Kate Calvin, Ben Bond-Lamberty, Beth Drewniak, Dan Ricciuto, Khachik Sargsyan, Yanyan Cheng, Carl Bernacchi, and Caitlin Moore
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-244, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-244, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
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Perennial bioenergy crops are not well represented in global land models, despite projected increase in their production. Our study expands Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) to include perennial bioenergy crops and calibrates the model for miscanthus and switchgrass. The calibrated model captures the seasonality and magnitude of carbon and energy fluxes. This study provides the foundation for future research examining the impact of perennial bioenergy crop expansion.
Dong-Gill Kim, Ben Bond-Lamberty, Youngryel Ryu, Bumsuk Seo, and Dario Papale
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-85, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-85, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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While greenhouse gas (GHG) research has adopted highly advanced technology some have adopted appropriate technology and approach (AT&A) such as low-cost instrument, open source software and participatory research and their results were well accepted by scientific communities. In terms of cost, feasibility and performance, integration of low-cost and low-technology, participatory and networking based research approaches can be AT&A for enhancing GHG research in developing countries.
Jeff W. Atkins, Elizabeth Agee, Alexandra Barry, Kyla M. Dahlin, Kalyn Dorheim, Maxim S. Grigri, Lisa T. Haber, Laura J. Hickey, Aaron G. Kamoske, Kayla Mathes, Catherine McGuigan, Evan Paris, Stephanie C. Pennington, Carly Rodriguez, Autym Shafer, Alexey Shiklomanov, Jason Tallant, Christopher M. Gough, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 943–952, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-943-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-943-2021, 2021
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The fortedata R package is an open data notebook from the Forest Resilience Threshold Experiment (FoRTE) – a modeling and manipulative field experiment that tests the effects of disturbance severity and disturbance type on carbon cycling dynamics in a temperate forest. The data included help to interpret how carbon cycling processes respond over time to disturbance.
Jinshi Jian, Rodrigo Vargas, Kristina Anderson-Teixeira, Emma Stell, Valentine Herrmann, Mercedes Horn, Nazar Kholod, Jason Manzon, Rebecca Marchesi, Darlin Paredes, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 255–267, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-255-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-255-2021, 2021
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Field soil-to-atmosphere CO2 flux (soil respiration, Rs) observations were compiled into a global database (SRDB) a decade ago. Here, we restructured and updated the database to the fifth version, SRDB-V5, with data published through 2017 included. SRDB-V5 aims to be a data framework for the scientific community to share seasonal to annual field Rs measurements, and it provides opportunities for the scientific community to better understand the spatial and temporal variability of Rs.
Kalyn Dorheim, Steven J. Smith, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 365–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-365-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-365-2021, 2021
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Simple climate models are frequently used in research and decision-making communities because of their tractability and low computational cost. Simple climate models are diverse, including highly idealized and process-based models. Here we present a hybrid approach that combines the strength of two types of simple climate models in a flexible framework. This hybrid approach has provided insights into the climate system and opens an avenue for investigating radiative forcing uncertainties.
Erin E. McDuffie, Steven J. Smith, Patrick O'Rourke, Kushal Tibrewal, Chandra Venkataraman, Eloise A. Marais, Bo Zheng, Monica Crippa, Michael Brauer, and Randall V. Martin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3413–3442, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3413-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3413-2020, 2020
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Global emission inventories are vital to understanding the impacts of air pollution on the environment, human health, and society. We update the open-source Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) to provide global gridded emissions of seven key air pollutants from 1970–2017 for 11 source sectors and multiple fuel types, including coal, solid biofuel, and liquid oil and natural gas. This dataset includes both monthly global gridded emissions and annual national totals.
George C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Justin Fisk, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Tomoko Hasegawa, Peter Havlik, Andreas Heinimann, Florian Humpenöder, Johan Jungclaus, Jed O. Kaplan, Jennifer Kennedy, Tamás Krisztin, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Lei Ma, Ole Mertz, Julia Pongratz, Alexander Popp, Benjamin Poulter, Keywan Riahi, Elena Shevliakova, Elke Stehfest, Peter Thornton, Francesco N. Tubiello, Detlef P. van Vuuren, and Xin Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5425–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, 2020
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To estimate the effects of human land use activities on the carbon–climate system, a new set of global gridded land use forcing datasets was developed to link historical land use data to eight future scenarios in a standard format required by climate models. This new generation of land use harmonization (LUH2) includes updated inputs, higher spatial resolution, more detailed land use transitions, and the addition of important agricultural management layers; it will be used for CMIP6 simulations.
Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Jared Lewis, Robert Gieseke, Dietmar Dommenget, Kalyn Dorheim, Chen-Shuo Fan, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Thomas Gasser, Ulrich Golüke, Philip Goodwin, Corinne Hartin, Austin P. Hope, Elmar Kriegler, Nicholas J. Leach, Davide Marchegiani, Laura A. McBride, Yann Quilcaille, Joeri Rogelj, Ross J. Salawitch, Bjørn H. Samset, Marit Sandstad, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Christopher J. Smith, Steve Smith, Katsumasa Tanaka, Junichi Tsutsui, and Zhiang Xie
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5175–5190, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, 2020
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Computational limits mean that we cannot run our most comprehensive climate models for all applications of interest. In such cases, reduced complexity models (RCMs) are used. Here, researchers working on 15 different models present the first systematic community effort to evaluate and compare RCMs: the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). Our research ensures that users of RCMs can more easily evaluate the strengths, weaknesses and limitations of their tools.
Jinshi Jian, Xuan Du, Ryan D. Stewart, Zeli Tan, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-283, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-283, 2020
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Field soil loss due to surface runoff observations were compiled into a global database (SoilErosionDB). The database focuses on three erosion-related metrics – surface runoff, soil erosion, and nutrient leaching – and also records background information. Data from 99 geographic sites and 22 countries around the world have been compiled into SoilErosionDB. SoilErosionDB aims to be a data framework for the scientific community to share field-based soil erosion measurements.
James A. Franke, Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, Alex C. Ruane, Jonas Jägermeyr, Abigail Snyder, Marie Dury, Pete D. Falloon, Christian Folberth, Louis François, Tobias Hank, R. Cesar Izaurralde, Ingrid Jacquemin, Curtis Jones, Michelle Li, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Meridel Phillips, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Ashwan Reddy, Karina Williams, Ziwei Wang, Florian Zabel, and Elisabeth J. Moyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3995–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3995-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3995-2020, 2020
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Improving our understanding of the impacts of climate change on crop yields will be critical for global food security in the next century. The models often used to study the how climate change may impact agriculture are complex and costly to run. In this work, we describe a set of global crop model emulators (simplified models) developed under the Agricultural Model Intercomparison Project. Crop model emulators make agricultural simulations more accessible to policy or decision makers.
Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Jared Lewis, Matthew J. Gidden, Elisabeth Vogel, Mandy Freund, Urs Beyerle, Claudia Gessner, Alexander Nauels, Nico Bauer, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Andrew John, Paul B. Krummel, Gunnar Luderer, Nicolai Meinshausen, Stephen A. Montzka, Peter J. Rayner, Stefan Reimann, Steven J. Smith, Marten van den Berg, Guus J. M. Velders, Martin K. Vollmer, and Ray H. J. Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, 2020
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This study provides the future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations under the new set of so-called SSP scenarios (the successors of the IPCC SRES and previous representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios). The projected CO2 concentrations range from 350 ppm for low-emission scenarios by 2150 to more than 2000 ppm under the high-emission scenarios. We also provide concentrations, latitudinal gradients, and seasonality for most of the other 42 considered GHGs.
Theodore Weber, Austin Corotan, Brian Hutchinson, Ben Kravitz, and Robert Link
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2303–2317, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2303-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2303-2020, 2020
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Climate model emulators can save computer time but are less accurate than full climate models. We use neural networks to build emulators of precipitation, trained on existing climate model runs. By doing so, we can capture nonlinearities and how the past state of a model (to some degree) shapes the future state. Our emulator outperforms a persistence forecast of precipitation.
Stephanie C. Pennington, Nate G. McDowell, J. Patrick Megonigal, James C. Stegen, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Biogeosciences, 17, 771–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-771-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-771-2020, 2020
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Soil respiration (Rs) is the flow of CO2 from the soil surface to the atmosphere and is one of the largest carbon fluxes on land. This study examined the effect of local basal area (tree area) on Rs in a coastal forest in eastern Maryland, USA. Rs measurements were taken as well as distance from soil collar, diameter, and species of each tree within a 15 m radius. We found that trees within 5 m of our sampling points had a positive effect on how sensitive soil respiration was to temperature.
Leyang Feng, Steven J. Smith, Caleb Braun, Monica Crippa, Matthew J. Gidden, Rachel Hoesly, Zbigniew Klimont, Margreet van Marle, Maarten van den Berg, and Guido R. van der Werf
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 461–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-461-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-461-2020, 2020
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We describe the methods used for generating gridded emission datasets produced for use by the modeling community, particularly for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The development of three sets of gridded data (historical open burning, historical anthropogenic, and future scenarios) was coordinated to produce consistent data over 1750–2100. We discuss the methodologies used to produce these data along with limitations and potential for future work.
Hongbin Yu, Yang Yang, Hailong Wang, Qian Tan, Mian Chin, Robert C. Levy, Lorraine A. Remer, Steven J. Smith, Tianle Yuan, and Yingxi Shi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 139–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-139-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-139-2020, 2020
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Emissions and long-range transport of mineral dust and
combustion-related aerosol from burning fossil fuels and biomass vary from year to year, driven by the evolution of the economy and changes in meteorological conditions and environmental regulations. This study offers both satellite and model perspectives on interannual variability and possible trends in combustion aerosol and dust in major continental outflow regions over the past 15 years (2003–2017).
Adria K. Schwarber, Steven J. Smith, Corinne A. Hartin, Benjamin Aaron Vega-Westhoff, and Ryan Sriver
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 729–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-729-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-729-2019, 2019
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Simple climate models (SCMs) underlie many important scientific and decision-making endeavors. This illustrates the need for their use to be rooted in a clear understanding of their fundamental responses. In this study, we provide a comprehensive assessment of model performance by evaluating the fundamental responses of several SCMs. We find biases in some responses, which have implications for decision science. We conclude by recommending a standard set of validation tests for any SCM.
Yun Liu, Eugenia Kalnay, Ning Zeng, Ghassem Asrar, Zhaohui Chen, and Binghao Jia
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2899–2914, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2899-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2899-2019, 2019
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We developed a new carbon data assimilation system to estimate the surface carbon fluxes using the LETKF and GEOS-Chem model, which uses a new scheme with a short
assimilation windowand a long
observation window. The analysis is more accurate using the short assimilation window and is exposed to the future observations that accelerate the spin-up. In OSSE, the system reduces the analysis error significantly, suggesting that this method could be used for other data assimilation problems.
Xuecao Li, Yuyu Zhou, Lin Meng, Ghassem R. Asrar, Chaoqun Lu, and Qiusheng Wu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 881–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-881-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-881-2019, 2019
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We generated a long-term (1985–2015) and medium-resolution (30 m) product of phenology indicators in urban domains in the conterminous US using Landsat satellite observations. The derived phenology indicators agree well with in situ observations and provide more spatial details in complex urban areas compared to the existing coarse resolution phenology products (e.g., MODIS). The published data are of great use for urban phenology studies (e.g., pollen-induced respiratory allergies).
Min Chen, Chris R. Vernon, Maoyi Huang, Katherine V. Calvin, and Ian P. Kraucunas
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1753–1764, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1753-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1753-2019, 2019
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Demeter is a community spatial downscaling model that disaggregates land use and land cover changes projected by integrated human–Earth system models. However, Demeter has not been intensively calibrated, and we still lack good knowledge about its sensitivity to key parameters and parameter uncertainties. This paper aims to solve this problem.
Robert Link, Abigail Snyder, Cary Lynch, Corinne Hartin, Ben Kravitz, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1477–1489, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1477-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1477-2019, 2019
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Earth system models (ESMs) produce the highest-quality future climate data available, but they are costly to run, so only a few runs from each model are publicly available. What is needed are emulators that tell us what would have happened, if we had been able to perform as many ESM runs as we might have liked. Much of the existing work on emulators has focused on deterministic projections of average values. Here we present a way to imbue emulators with the variability seen in ESM runs.
Matthew J. Gidden, Keywan Riahi, Steven J. Smith, Shinichiro Fujimori, Gunnar Luderer, Elmar Kriegler, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Maarten van den Berg, Leyang Feng, David Klein, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Mathijs Harmsen, Tomoko Hasegawa, Petr Havlik, Jérôme Hilaire, Rachel Hoesly, Jill Horing, Alexander Popp, Elke Stehfest, and Kiyoshi Takahashi
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1443–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019, 2019
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We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources for use in CMIP6. Integrated assessment model results are provided for each scenario with consistent transitions from the historical data to future trajectories. We find that the set of scenarios enables the exploration of a variety of warming pathways. A wide range of scenario data products are provided for the CMIP6 scientific community including global, regional, and gridded emissions datasets.
Abigail Snyder, Katherine V. Calvin, Meridel Phillips, and Alex C. Ruane
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1319–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1319-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1319-2019, 2019
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Future changes in Earth system state will impact agricultural yields and therefore the global economy. Global gridded crop models estimate the influence of these Earth system changes on future crop yields, but are often too computationally intensive to dynamically couple into global multi-sector economic models, such as GCAM and other similar-in-scale models. This work describes a new crop yield change emulator, Persephone, that can capture yield changes in a computationally efficient way.
Stephanie Fiedler, Bjorn Stevens, Matthew Gidden, Steven J. Smith, Keywan Riahi, and Detlef van Vuuren
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 989–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-989-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-989-2019, 2019
Yang Yang, Steven J. Smith, Hailong Wang, Catrin M. Mills, and Philip J. Rasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2405–2420, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2405-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2405-2019, 2019
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Black carbon (BC) particles exert a potentially large warming influence on the
Earth system. We evaluate regional climate responses, non-linearity, and short-term transient responses to BC emission perturbations. We found that climate responses do not scale linearity with emissions and BC impacts temperature much faster than greenhouse gas forcing. Removing present-day BC emissions results in discernible surface temperature changes for only limited regions of the globe.
Derek T. Robinson, Alan Di Vittorio, Peter Alexander, Almut Arneth, C. Michael Barton, Daniel G. Brown, Albert Kettner, Carsten Lemmen, Brian C. O'Neill, Marco Janssen, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Sam S. Rabin, Mark Rounsevell, James P. Syvitski, Isaac Ullah, and Peter H. Verburg
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 895–914, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-895-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-895-2018, 2018
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Understanding the complexity behind the rapid use of Earth’s resources requires modelling approaches that couple human and natural systems. We propose a framework that comprises the configuration, frequency of interaction, and coordination of communication between models along with eight lessons as guidelines to increase the success of coupled human–natural systems modelling initiatives. We also suggest a way to expedite model coupling and increase the longevity and interoperability of models.
Zhongwei Huang, Mohamad Hejazi, Xinya Li, Qiuhong Tang, Chris Vernon, Guoyong Leng, Yaling Liu, Petra Döll, Stephanie Eisner, Dieter Gerten, Naota Hanasaki, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2117–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2117-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2117-2018, 2018
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This study generate a historical global monthly gridded water withdrawal data (0.5 × 0.5 degrees) for the period 1971–2010, distinguishing six water use sectors (irrigation, domestic, electricity generation, livestock, mining, and manufacturing). This dataset is the first reconstructed global water withdrawal data product at sub-annual and gridded resolution that is derived from different models and data sources, and was generated by spatially and temporally downscaling country-scale estimates.
Yaling Liu, Mohamad Hejazi, Hongyi Li, Xuesong Zhang, and Guoyong Leng
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1077–1092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1077-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1077-2018, 2018
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This hydrologic emulator provides researchers with an easy way to investigate the variations in water budgets at any spatial scale of interest, with minimum requirements of effort, reasonable model predictability, and appealing computational efficiency. We expect it to have a profound influence on scientific endeavors in hydrological modeling and to excite the immediate interest of researchers working on climate impact assessments, uncertainty/sensitivity analysis, and integrated assessment.
Rachel M. Hoesly, Steven J. Smith, Leyang Feng, Zbigniew Klimont, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Tyler Pitkanen, Jonathan J. Seibert, Linh Vu, Robert J. Andres, Ryan M. Bolt, Tami C. Bond, Laura Dawidowski, Nazar Kholod, June-ichi Kurokawa, Meng Li, Liang Liu, Zifeng Lu, Maria Cecilia P. Moura, Patrick R. O'Rourke, and Qiang Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 369–408, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-369-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-369-2018, 2018
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Historical emission trends are key inputs to Earth systems and atmospheric chemistry models. We present a new data set of historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic gases (CO, CH4, NH3, NOx, SO2, NMVOCs, BC, OC, and CO2) developed with the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS). This improves on existing inventories as it uses consistent methods and data across emissions species, has annual resolution for a longer and more recent time series, and is designed to be transparent and reproducible.
Yannick Le Page, Douglas Morton, Corinne Hartin, Ben Bond-Lamberty, José Miguel Cardoso Pereira, George Hurtt, and Ghassem Asrar
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1237–1246, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1237-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1237-2017, 2017
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Fires damage large areas of eastern Amazon forests when ignitions from human activity coincide with droughts, while more humid central and western regions are less affected. Here, we use a fire model to estimate that fire activity could increase by an order of magnitude without climate mitigation. Our results show that avoiding further agricultural expansion can limit fire ignitions but that tackling climate change is essential to insulate the interior Amazon through the 21st century.
Abigail C. Snyder, Robert P. Link, and Katherine V. Calvin
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4307–4319, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4307-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4307-2017, 2017
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Experiments conducting a model forecast for a period in which observational data are available are rarely undertaken in the integrated assessment model (IAM) community. When undertaken, results are often evaluated using global aggregates that mask deficiencies. Comparing land allocation simulations in GCAM with FAO observational data from 1990 to 2010, we find quantitative evidence that global aggregates alone are not sufficient for evaluating IAMs with global supply constraints similar to GCAM.
Yun Liu, Eugenia Kalnay, Ning Zeng, Ghassem Asrar, Zhaohui Chen, and Binghao Jia
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-888, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-888, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
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We developed a new Carbon data assimilation system to estimate the surface carbon fluxes using the LETKF and GEOS-Chem model, which uses a new scheme with a short
assimilation windowand a long
observation window. The analysis is more accurate with the short assimilation window and is exposed to the future observations accelerating the spin up. In OSSE, the system reduces significantly the analysis error, suggesting that this method could be used in other data assimilation problems.
Cary Lynch, Corinne Hartin, Min Chen, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-405, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-405, 2017
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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Heterotrophic respiration (RH) is a large part of the carbon cycle, but it is poorly simulated by climate models. We examine the relationships between RH and key climate variables to understand this uncertainty in observations and from climate models. Compared to observations, models overestimate both the RH trend and climatological relationships. In the future, the relationship between RH and temperature is strong and can be used to explore a wide range of future scenarios.
James C. Stegen, Carolyn G. Anderson, Ben Bond-Lamberty, Alex R. Crump, Xingyuan Chen, and Nancy Hess
Biogeosciences, 14, 4341–4354, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4341-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4341-2017, 2017
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CO2 loss from soil to the atmosphere (
soil respiration) is a key ecosystem function, especially in systems with permafrost. We find that soil respiration shows a non-linear threshold at permafrost depths > 140 cm and that the number of large trees governs soil respiration. This suggests that remote sensing could be used to estimate spatial variation in soil respiration and (with knowledge of key thresholds) empirically constrain models that predict ecosystem responses to permafrost thaw.
Yang Yang, Hailong Wang, Steven J. Smith, Richard Easter, Po-Lun Ma, Yun Qian, Hongbin Yu, Can Li, and Philip J. Rasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 8903–8922, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8903-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8903-2017, 2017
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Sulfate has significant impacts on air quality and climate. Local sulfate pollution could result from remote influences, making domestic mitigation efforts inefficient. Using CESM with a sulfur source-tagging technique, we found that, over regions with relatively low emissions, sulfate concentrations are primarily attributed to non-local sources and sulfate indirect radiative forcing over the Southern Hemisphere is more sensitive to emission perturbation than the polluted Northern Hemisphere.
Cary Lynch, Corinne Hartin, Ben Bond-Lamberty, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 281–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-281-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-281-2017, 2017
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Pattern scaling climate model output is a computationally efficient way to produce a large amount of data for purposes of uncertainty quantification. Using a multi-model ensemble we explore pattern scaling methodologies across two future forcing scenarios. We find that the simple least squares approach to pattern scaling produces a close approximation of actual model output, and we use this as a justification for the creation of an open-access pattern library at multiple time increments.
Ben Kravitz, Cary Lynch, Corinne Hartin, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1889–1902, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1889-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1889-2017, 2017
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Pattern scaling is a way of approximating regional changes without needing to run a full, complex global climate model. We compare two methods of pattern scaling for precipitation and evaluate which methods is
betterin particular circumstances. We also decompose precipitation into a CO2 portion and a non-CO2 portion. The methodologies discussed in this paper can help provide precipitation fields for other models for a wide variety of scenarios of future climate change.
Yang Yang, Hailong Wang, Steven J. Smith, Po-Lun Ma, and Philip J. Rasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4319–4336, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4319-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4319-2017, 2017
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The source attributions of black carbon (BC) in China are quantified using the Community Earth System Model by source tagging. BC impacts neighboring regions greatly. Transport is important in increasing BC during regional polluted days. Emissions outside China contribute 35 % of BC direct radiative forcing in China. Efficiency analysis shows that reduction in BC emissions over eastern China could have a greater benefit for regional air quality in China, especially in the winter haze season.
William J. Collins, Jean-François Lamarque, Michael Schulz, Olivier Boucher, Veronika Eyring, Michaela I. Hegglin, Amanda Maycock, Gunnar Myhre, Michael Prather, Drew Shindell, and Steven J. Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 585–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, 2017
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We have designed a set of climate model experiments called the Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). These are designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases in the climate models that are used to simulate past and future climate. We hope that many climate modelling centres will choose to run these experiments to help understand the contribution of aerosols and chemistry to climate change.
Bjorn Stevens, Stephanie Fiedler, Stefan Kinne, Karsten Peters, Sebastian Rast, Jobst Müsse, Steven J. Smith, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 433–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-433-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-433-2017, 2017
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A simple analytic description of aerosol optical properties and their main effects on clouds is developed and described. The analytic description is easy to use and easy to modify and should aid experimentation to help understand how aerosol radiative and cloud interactions effect climate and circulation. The climatology is recommended for adoption by models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.
Ben Bond-Lamberty, A. Peyton Smith, and Vanessa Bailey
Biogeosciences, 13, 6669–6681, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6669-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6669-2016, 2016
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We used a laboratory experiment to examine how climate change and permafrost melting might alter soils in high-latitude regions. Soils were subjected to two temperatures and drought, and gas emissions were monitored. Carbon dioxide fluxes were influenced by temperature, water, and soil nitrogen, while methane emissions were much smaller and linked only with nitrogen. This suggests that such soils may be very sensitive to changes in moisture as discontinuous permafrost thaws in interior Alaska.
Yannick Le Page, Tris O. West, Robert Link, and Pralit Patel
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3055–3069, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3055-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3055-2016, 2016
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A computer program was developed to transform maps of regional land use (e.g., crops) and land cover (e.g., forests) areas into gridded maps actually representing their spatial distribution within each region. This is important for studies of future environmental change: economic models project agricultural activities at the regional scale, but Earth system models need gridded information to project the impact of such activities on climate, biodiversity, water availability, and other aspects.
David M. Lawrence, George C. Hurtt, Almut Arneth, Victor Brovkin, Kate V. Calvin, Andrew D. Jones, Chris D. Jones, Peter J. Lawrence, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2973–2998, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, 2016
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Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The goal of LUMIP is to take the next steps in land-use change science, and enable, coordinate, and ultimately address the most important land-use science questions in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date.
Corinne A. Hartin, Benjamin Bond-Lamberty, Pralit Patel, and Anupriya Mundra
Biogeosciences, 13, 4329–4342, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4329-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4329-2016, 2016
Yuqiang Zhang, Jared H. Bowden, Zachariah Adelman, Vaishali Naik, Larry W. Horowitz, Steven J. Smith, and J. Jason West
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9533–9548, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9533-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9533-2016, 2016
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Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can also improve air quality. We estimate the co-benefits of global GHG mitigation for US air quality in 2050 at fine resolution by downscaling from a previous global study. Foreign GHG mitigation under RCP4.5 contributes more to the US O3 reduction (76 % of the total) than domestic mitigation and contributes 26 % of the PM2.5 reduction. Therefore, the US gains significantly greater air quality co-benefits by coordinating GHG controls internationally.
Cary Lynch, Corinne Hartin, Ben Bond-Lamberty, and Ben Kravitz
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-170, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-170, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Pattern scaling is used to explore uncertainty in future forcing scenarios and assess local climate sensitivity to global temperature change. This paper examines the two dominant pattern scaling methods using a multi-model ensemble with two future socio-economic storylines. We find that high latitudes show the strongest sensitivity to global temperature change and that the simple least squared regression approach to generation of patterns is a better fit to projected global temperature.
W. D. Collins, A. P. Craig, J. E. Truesdale, A. V. Di Vittorio, A. D. Jones, B. Bond-Lamberty, K. V. Calvin, J. A. Edmonds, S. H. Kim, A. M. Thomson, P. Patel, Y. Zhou, J. Mao, X. Shi, P. E. Thornton, L. P. Chini, and G. C. Hurtt
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2203–2219, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2203-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2203-2015, 2015
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The integrated Earth system model (iESM) has been developed as a
new tool for projecting the joint human-climate system. The
iESM is based upon coupling an integrated assessment model (IAM)
and an Earth system model (ESM) into a common modeling
infrastructure. By introducing heretofore-omitted
feedbacks between natural and societal drivers in iESM, we can improve
scientific understanding of the human-Earth system
dynamics.
C. A. Hartin, P. Patel, A. Schwarber, R. P. Link, and B. P. Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 939–955, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-939-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-939-2015, 2015
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Simple climate models play an integral role in policy and scientific communities. Hector v1.0 is an open-source, object-oriented, simple global climate carbon-cycle model. Hector reproduces the global historical trends of atmospheric [CO2], radiative forcing, and surface temperatures. Hector simulates all four representative concentration pathways with equivalent rates of change of key variables over time compared to current observations and other models.
B. Bond-Lamberty, J. P. Fisk, J. A. Holm, V. Bailey, G. Bohrer, and C. M. Gough
Biogeosciences, 12, 513–526, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-513-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-513-2015, 2015
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How will aging forests behave as they undergo ecological transitions? Can our models, which support scientific, policy, and management analyses, accurately simulate these transitions? We tested whether three forest ecosystem models could reproduce dynamics observed in an experimentally manipulated forest in northern Michigan, USA. None of the models fully captured the post-disturbance C fluxes observed, raising doubts about their ability to simulate tree death after moderate disturbances.
A. V. Di Vittorio, L. P. Chini, B. Bond-Lamberty, J. Mao, X. Shi, J. Truesdale, A. Craig, K. Calvin, A. Jones, W. D. Collins, J. Edmonds, G. C. Hurtt, P. Thornton, and A. Thomson
Biogeosciences, 11, 6435–6450, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6435-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6435-2014, 2014
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Economic models provide scenarios of land use and greenhouse gas emissions to earth system models to project global change. We found, and partially addressed, inconsistencies in land cover between an economic and an earth system model that effectively alter a prescribed scenario, causing significant differences in projected terrestrial carbon and atmospheric CO2 between prescribed and altered scenarios. We outline a solution to this current problem in scenario-based global change projections.
B. Bond-Lamberty, K. Calvin, A. D. Jones, J. Mao, P. Patel, X. Y. Shi, A. Thomson, P. Thornton, and Y. Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2545–2555, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2545-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2545-2014, 2014
M. I. Hejazi, J. Edmonds, L. Clarke, P. Kyle, E. Davies, V. Chaturvedi, M. Wise, P. Patel, J. Eom, and K. Calvin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2859–2883, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2859-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2859-2014, 2014
S. J. Smith and T. C. Bond
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 537–549, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-537-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-537-2014, 2014
S. J. Smith
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
N. Voisin, L. Liu, M. Hejazi, T. Tesfa, H. Li, M. Huang, Y. Liu, and L. R. Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4555–4575, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4555-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4555-2013, 2013
S. J. Smith and A. Rothwell
Biogeosciences, 10, 6323–6337, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6323-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6323-2013, 2013
M. I. Hejazi, J. Edmonds, L. Clarke, P. Kyle, E. Davies, V. Chaturvedi, J. Eom, M. Wise, P. Patel, and K. Calvin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-3383-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-3383-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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Hector V3.2.0: functionality and performance of a reduced-complexity climate model
Evaluation of CMIP6 model simulations of PM2.5 and its components over China
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Parallel SnowModel (v1.0): a parallel implementation of a distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel)
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Carl Svenhag, Moa K. Sporre, Tinja Olenius, Daniel Yazgi, Sara M. Blichner, Lars P. Nieradzik, and Pontus Roldin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4923–4942, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4923-2024, 2024
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Our research shows the importance of modeling new particle formation (NPF) and growth of particles in the atmosphere on a global scale, as they influence the outcomes of clouds and our climate. With the global model EC-Earth3 we show that using a new method for NPF modeling, which includes new detailed processes with NH3 and H2SO4, significantly impacts the number of particles in the air and clouds and changes the radiation balance of the same magnitude as anthropogenic greenhouse emissions.
Mengjie Han, Qing Zhao, Xili Wang, Ying-Ping Wang, Philippe Ciais, Haicheng Zhang, Daniel S. Goll, Lei Zhu, Zhe Zhao, Zhixuan Guo, Chen Wang, Wei Zhuang, Fengchang Wu, and Wei Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4871–4890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024, 2024
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The impact of biochar (BC) on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics is not represented in most land carbon models used for assessing land-based climate change mitigation. Our study develops a BC model that incorporates our current understanding of BC effects on SOC based on a soil carbon model (MIMICS). The BC model can reproduce the SOC changes after adding BC, providing a useful tool to couple dynamic land models to evaluate the effectiveness of BC application for CO2 removal from the atmosphere.
Kalyn Dorheim, Skylar Gering, Robert Gieseke, Corinne Hartin, Leeya Pressburger, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Steven J. Smith, Claudia Tebaldi, Dawn L. Woodard, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4855–4869, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024, 2024
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Hector is an easy-to-use, global climate–carbon cycle model. With its quick run time, Hector can provide climate information from a run in a fraction of a second. Hector models on a global and annual basis. Here, we present an updated version of the model, Hector V3. In this paper, we document Hector’s new features. Hector V3 is capable of reproducing historical observations, and its future temperature projections are consistent with those of more complex models.
Fangxuan Ren, Jintai Lin, Chenghao Xu, Jamiu A. Adeniran, Jingxu Wang, Randall V. Martin, Aaron van Donkelaar, Melanie S. Hammer, Larry W. Horowitz, Steven T. Turnock, Naga Oshima, Jie Zhang, Susanne Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Gary Strand, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, and Toshihiko Takemura
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4821–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4821-2024, 2024
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We evaluate the performance of 14 CMIP6 ESMs in simulating total PM2.5 and its 5 components over China during 2000–2014. PM2.5 and its components are underestimated in almost all models, except that black carbon (BC) and sulfate are overestimated in two models, respectively. The underestimation is the largest for organic carbon (OC) and the smallest for BC. Models reproduce the observed spatial pattern for OC, sulfate, nitrate and ammonium well, yet the agreement is poorer for BC.
Yi Xi, Chunjing Qiu, Yuan Zhang, Dan Zhu, Shushi Peng, Gustaf Hugelius, Jinfeng Chang, Elodie Salmon, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4727–4754, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024, 2024
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The ORCHIDEE-MICT model can simulate the carbon cycle and hydrology at a sub-grid scale but energy budgets only at a grid scale. This paper assessed the implementation of a multi-tiling energy budget approach in ORCHIDEE-MICT and found warmer surface and soil temperatures, higher soil moisture, and more soil organic carbon across the Northern Hemisphere compared with the original version.
Georgia Lazoglou, Theo Economou, Christina Anagnostopoulou, George Zittis, Anna Tzyrkalli, Pantelis Georgiades, and Jos Lelieveld
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4689–4703, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4689-2024, 2024
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This study focuses on the important issue of the drizzle bias effect in regional climate models, described by an over-prediction of the number of rainy days while underestimating associated precipitation amounts. For this purpose, two distinct methodologies are applied and rigorously evaluated. These results are encouraging for using the multivariate machine learning method random forest to increase the accuracy of climate models concerning the projection of the number of wet days.
Xu Yue, Hao Zhou, Chenguang Tian, Yimian Ma, Yihan Hu, Cheng Gong, Hui Zheng, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4621–4642, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4621-2024, 2024
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We develop the interactive Model for Air Pollution and Land Ecosystems (iMAPLE). The model considers the full coupling between carbon and water cycles, dynamic fire emissions, wetland methane emissions, biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, and trait-based ozone vegetation damage. Evaluations show that iMAPLE is a useful tool for the study of the interactions among climate, chemistry, and ecosystems.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
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The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Ross Mower, Ethan D. Gutmann, Glen E. Liston, Jessica Lundquist, and Soren Rasmussen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4135–4154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4135-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4135-2024, 2024
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Higher-resolution model simulations are better at capturing winter snowpack changes across space and time. However, increasing resolution also increases the computational requirements. This work provides an overview of changes made to a distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) to allow it to leverage high-performance computing resources. Continental simulations that were previously estimated to take 120 d can now be performed in 5 h.
Jiaxu Guo, Juepeng Zheng, Yidan Xu, Haohuan Fu, Wei Xue, Lanning Wang, Lin Gan, Ping Gao, Wubing Wan, Xianwei Wu, Zhitao Zhang, Liang Hu, Gaochao Xu, and Xilong Che
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3975–3992, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3975-2024, 2024
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To enhance the efficiency of experiments using SCAM, we train a learning-based surrogate model to facilitate large-scale sensitivity analysis and tuning of combinations of multiple parameters. Employing a hybrid method, we investigate the joint sensitivity of multi-parameter combinations across typical cases, identifying the most sensitive three-parameter combination out of 11. Subsequently, we conduct a tuning process aimed at reducing output errors in these cases.
Yung-Yao Lan, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, and Wan-Ling Tseng
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3897–3918, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3897-2024, 2024
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This study uses the CAM5–SIT coupled model to investigate the effects of SST feedback frequency on the MJO simulations with intervals at 30 min, 1, 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, and 30 d. The simulations become increasingly unrealistic as the frequency of the SST feedback decreases. Our results suggest that more spontaneous air--sea interaction (e.g., ocean response within 3 d in this study) with high vertical resolution in the ocean model is key to the realistic simulation of the MJO.
Jiwoo Lee, Peter J. Gleckler, Min-Seop Ahn, Ana Ordonez, Paul A. Ullrich, Kenneth R. Sperber, Karl E. Taylor, Yann Y. Planton, Eric Guilyardi, Paul Durack, Celine Bonfils, Mark D. Zelinka, Li-Wei Chao, Bo Dong, Charles Doutriaux, Chengzhu Zhang, Tom Vo, Jason Boutte, Michael F. Wehner, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Daehyun Kim, Zeyu Xue, Andrew T. Wittenberg, and John Krasting
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3919–3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3919-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3919-2024, 2024
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We introduce an open-source software, the PCMDI Metrics Package (PMP), developed for a comprehensive comparison of Earth system models (ESMs) with real-world observations. Using diverse metrics evaluating climatology, variability, and extremes simulated in thousands of simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), PMP aids in benchmarking model improvements across generations. PMP also enables efficient tracking of performance evolutions during ESM developments.
Haoyue Zuo, Yonggang Liu, Gaojun Li, Zhifang Xu, Liang Zhao, Zhengtang Guo, and Yongyun Hu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3949–3974, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3949-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3949-2024, 2024
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Compared to the silicate weathering fluxes measured at large river basins, the current models tend to systematically overestimate the fluxes over the tropical region, which leads to an overestimation of the global total weathering flux. The most possible cause of such bias is found to be the overestimation of tropical surface erosion, which indicates that the tropical vegetation likely slows down physical erosion significantly. We propose a way of taking this effect into account in models.
Quentin Pikeroen, Didier Paillard, and Karine Watrin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3801–3814, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3801-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3801-2024, 2024
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All accurate climate models use equations with poorly defined parameters, where knobs for the parameters are turned to fit the observations. This process is called tuning. In this article, we use another paradigm. We use a thermodynamic hypothesis, the maximum entropy production, to compute temperatures, energy fluxes, and precipitation, where tuning is impossible. For now, the 1D vertical model is used for a tropical atmosphere. The correct order of magnitude of precipitation is computed.
Jishi Zhang, Peter Bogenschutz, Qi Tang, Philip Cameron-smith, and Chengzhu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3687–3731, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3687-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3687-2024, 2024
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We developed a regionally refined climate model that allows resolved convection and performed a 20-year projection to the end of the century. The model has a resolution of 3.25 km in California, which allows us to predict climate with unprecedented accuracy, and a resolution of 100 km for the rest of the globe to achieve efficient, self-consistent simulations. The model produces superior results in reproducing climate patterns over California that typical modern climate models cannot resolve.
Xiaohui Zhong, Xing Yu, and Hao Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3667–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3667-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3667-2024, 2024
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In order to forecast localized warm-sector rainfall in the south China region, numerical weather prediction models are being run with finer grid spacing. The conventional convection parameterization (CP) performs poorly in the gray zone, necessitating the development of a scale-aware scheme. We propose a machine learning (ML) model to replace the scale-aware CP scheme. Evaluation against the original CP scheme has shown that the ML-based CP scheme can provide accurate and reliable predictions.
Taufiq Hassan, Kai Zhang, Jianfeng Li, Balwinder Singh, Shixuan Zhang, Hailong Wang, and Po-Lun Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3507–3532, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3507-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3507-2024, 2024
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Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are an essential part of global aerosol models. Significant errors can exist from the loss of emission heterogeneity. We introduced an emission treatment that significantly improved aerosol emission heterogeneity in high-resolution model simulations, with improvements in simulated aerosol surface concentrations. The emission treatment will provide a more accurate representation of aerosol emissions and their effects on climate.
Feng Zhu, Julien Emile-Geay, Gregory J. Hakim, Dominique Guillot, Deborah Khider, Robert Tardif, and Walter A. Perkins
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3409–3431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3409-2024, 2024
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Climate field reconstruction encompasses methods that estimate the evolution of climate in space and time based on natural archives. It is useful to investigate climate variations and validate climate models, but its implementation and use can be difficult for non-experts. This paper introduces a user-friendly Python package called cfr to make these methods more accessible, thanks to the computational and visualization tools that facilitate efficient and reproducible research on past climates.
Rose V. Palermo, J. Taylor Perron, Jason M. Soderblom, Samuel P. D. Birch, Alexander G. Hayes, and Andrew D. Ashton
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3433–3445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3433-2024, 2024
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Models of rocky coastal erosion help us understand the controls on coastal morphology and evolution. In this paper, we present a simplified model of coastline erosion driven by either uniform erosion where coastline erosion is constant or wave-driven erosion where coastline erosion is a function of the wave power. This model can be used to evaluate how coastline changes reflect climate, sea-level history, material properties, and the relative influence of different erosional processes.
Safae Oumami, Joaquim Arteta, Vincent Guidard, Pierre Tulet, and Paul David Hamer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3385–3408, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3385-2024, 2024
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In this paper, we coupled the SURFEX and MEGAN models. The aim of this coupling is to improve the estimation of biogenic fluxes by using the SURFEX canopy environment model. The coupled model results were validated and several sensitivity tests were performed. The coupled-model total annual isoprene flux is 442 Tg; this value is within the range of other isoprene estimates reported. The ultimate aim of this coupling is to predict the impact of climate change on biogenic emissions.
Lars Ackermann, Thomas Rackow, Kai Himstedt, Paul Gierz, Gregor Knorr, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3279–3301, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024, 2024
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We present long-term simulations with interactive icebergs in the Southern Ocean. By melting, icebergs reduce the temperature and salinity of the surrounding ocean. In our simulations, we find that this cooling effect of iceberg melting is not limited to the surface ocean but also reaches the deep ocean and propagates northward into all ocean basins. Additionally, the formation of deep-water masses in the Southern Ocean is enhanced.
Nanhong Xie, Tijian Wang, Xiaodong Xie, Xu Yue, Filippo Giorgi, Qian Zhang, Danyang Ma, Rong Song, Beiyao Xu, Shu Li, Bingliang Zhuang, Mengmeng Li, Min Xie, Natalya Andreeva Kilifarska, Georgi Gadzhev, and Reneta Dimitrova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3259–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3259-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3259-2024, 2024
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For the first time, we coupled a regional climate chemistry model, RegCM-Chem, with a dynamic vegetation model, YIBs, to create a regional climate–chemistry–ecology model, RegCM-Chem–YIBs. We applied it to simulate climatic, chemical, and ecological parameters in East Asia and fully validated it on a variety of observational data. Results show that RegCM-Chem–YIBs model is a valuable tool for studying the terrestrial carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change on a regional scale.
Bryce E. Harrop, Jian Lu, L. Ruby Leung, William K. M. Lau, Kyu-Myong Kim, Brian Medeiros, Brian J. Soden, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Bosong Zhang, and Balwinder Singh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3111–3135, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3111-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3111-2024, 2024
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Seven new experimental setups designed to interfere with cloud radiative heating have been added to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). These experiments include both those that test the mean impact of cloud radiative heating and those examining its covariance with circulations. This paper documents the code changes and steps needed to run these experiments. Results corroborate prior findings for how cloud radiative heating impacts circulations and rainfall patterns.
Mario C. Acosta, Sergi Palomas, Stella V. Paronuzzi Ticco, Gladys Utrera, Joachim Biercamp, Pierre-Antoine Bretonniere, Reinhard Budich, Miguel Castrillo, Arnaud Caubel, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Italo Epicoco, Uwe Fladrich, Sylvie Joussaume, Alok Kumar Gupta, Bryan Lawrence, Philippe Le Sager, Grenville Lister, Marie-Pierre Moine, Jean-Christophe Rioual, Sophie Valcke, Niki Zadeh, and Venkatramani Balaji
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3081–3098, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3081-2024, 2024
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We present a collection of performance metrics gathered during the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), a worldwide initiative to study climate change. We analyse the metrics that resulted from collaboration efforts among many partners and models and describe our findings to demonstrate the utility of our study for the scientific community. The research contributes to understanding climate modelling performance on the current high-performance computing (HPC) architectures.
Sabine Doktorowski, Jan Kretzschmar, Johannes Quaas, Marc Salzmann, and Odran Sourdeval
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3099–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3099-2024, 2024
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Especially over the midlatitudes, precipitation is mainly formed via the ice phase. In this study we focus on the initial snow formation process in the ICON-AES, the aggregation process. We use a stochastical approach for the aggregation parameterization and investigate the influence in the ICON-AES. Therefore, a distribution function of cloud ice is created, which is evaluated with satellite data. The new approach leads to cloud ice loss and an improvement in the process rate bias.
Katie R. Blackford, Matthew Kasoar, Chantelle Burton, Eleanor Burke, Iain Colin Prentice, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3063–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, 2024
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Peatlands are globally important stores of carbon which are being increasingly threatened by wildfires with knock-on effects on the climate system. Here we introduce a novel peat fire parameterization in the northern high latitudes to the INFERNO global fire model. Representing peat fires increases annual burnt area across the high latitudes, alongside improvements in how we capture year-to-year variation in burning and emissions.
Pengfei Shi, L. Ruby Leung, Bin Wang, Kai Zhang, Samson M. Hagos, and Shixuan Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3025–3040, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3025-2024, 2024
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Improving climate predictions have profound socio-economic impacts. This study introduces a new weakly coupled land data assimilation (WCLDA) system for a coupled climate model. We demonstrate improved simulation of soil moisture and temperature in many global regions and throughout the soil layers. Furthermore, significant improvements are also found in reproducing the time evolution of the 2012 US Midwest drought. The WCLDA system provides the groundwork for future predictability studies.
Justin Peter, Elisabeth Vogel, Wendy Sharples, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Louise Wilson, Pandora Hope, Andrew Dowdy, Greg Kociuba, Sri Srikanthan, Vi Co Duong, Jake Roussis, Vjekoslav Matic, Zaved Khan, Alison Oke, Margot Turner, Stuart Baron-Hay, Fiona Johnson, Raj Mehrotra, Ashish Sharma, Marcus Thatcher, Ali Azarvinand, Steven Thomas, Ghyslaine Boschat, Chantal Donnelly, and Robert Argent
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2755–2781, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2755-2024, 2024
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We detail the production of datasets and communication to end users of high-resolution projections of rainfall, runoff, and soil moisture for the entire Australian continent. This is important as previous projections for Australia were for small regions and used differing techniques for their projections, making comparisons difficult across Australia's varied climate zones. The data will be beneficial for research purposes and to aid adaptation to climate change.
Daniele Visioni, Alan Robock, Jim Haywood, Matthew Henry, Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Sarah J. Doherty, John Moore, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Olivier Boucher, Abu Syed, Temitope S. Egbebiyi, Roland Séférian, and Ilaria Quaglia
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2583–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, 2024
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This paper describes a new experimental protocol for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). In it, we describe the details of a new simulation of sunlight reflection using the stratospheric aerosols that climate models are supposed to run, and we explain the reasons behind each choice we made when defining the protocol.
Jose Rafael Guarin, Jonas Jägermeyr, Elizabeth A. Ainsworth, Fabio A. A. Oliveira, Senthold Asseng, Kenneth Boote, Joshua Elliott, Lisa Emberson, Ian Foster, Gerrit Hoogenboom, David Kelly, Alex C. Ruane, and Katrina Sharps
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2547–2567, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2547-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2547-2024, 2024
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The effects of ozone (O3) stress on crop photosynthesis and leaf senescence were added to maize, rice, soybean, and wheat crop models. The modified models reproduced growth and yields under different O3 levels measured in field experiments and reported in the literature. The combined interactions between O3 and additional stresses were reproduced with the new models. These updated crop models can be used to simulate impacts of O3 stress under future climate change and air pollution scenarios.
Jiachen Lu, Negin Nazarian, Melissa Anne Hart, E. Scott Krayenhoff, and Alberto Martilli
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2525–2545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2525-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2525-2024, 2024
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This study enhances urban canopy models by refining key assumptions. Simulations for various urban scenarios indicate discrepancies in turbulent transport efficiency for flow properties. We propose two modifications that involve characterizing diffusion coefficients for momentum and turbulent kinetic energy separately and introducing a physics-based
mass-fluxterm. These adjustments enhance the model's performance, offering more reliable temperature and surface flux estimates.
Justin L. Willson, Kevin A. Reed, Christiane Jablonowski, James Kent, Peter H. Lauritzen, Ramachandran Nair, Mark A. Taylor, Paul A. Ullrich, Colin M. Zarzycki, David M. Hall, Don Dazlich, Ross Heikes, Celal Konor, David Randall, Thomas Dubos, Yann Meurdesoif, Xi Chen, Lucas Harris, Christian Kühnlein, Vivian Lee, Abdessamad Qaddouri, Claude Girard, Marco Giorgetta, Daniel Reinert, Hiroaki Miura, Tomoki Ohno, and Ryuji Yoshida
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2493–2507, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2493-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2493-2024, 2024
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Accurate simulation of tropical cyclones (TCs) is essential to understanding their behavior in a changing climate. One way this is accomplished is through model intercomparison projects, where results from multiple climate models are analyzed to provide benchmark solutions for the wider climate modeling community. This study describes and analyzes the previously developed TC test case for nine climate models in an intercomparison project, providing solutions that aid in model development.
Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2387–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, 2024
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Climate scientists want to better understand modern climate change. Thus, climate model experiments are performed and compared. The results of climate model experiments differ, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. This article gives insights into the challenges and outlines opportunities for further improving the understanding of climate change. It is based on views of a group of experts in atmospheric composition–climate interactions.
Sergey Danilov, Carolin Mehlmann, Dmitry Sidorenko, and Qiang Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2287–2297, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2287-2024, 2024
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Sea ice models are a necessary component of climate models. At very high resolution they are capable of simulating linear kinematic features, such as leads, which are important for better prediction of heat exchanges between the ocean and atmosphere. Two new discretizations are described which improve the sea ice component of the Finite volumE Sea ice–Ocean Model (FESOM version 2) by allowing simulations of finer scales.
Yangke Liu, Qing Bao, Bian He, Xiaofei Wu, Jing Yang, Yimin Liu, Guoxiong Wu, Tao Zhu, Siyuan Zhou, Yao Tang, Ankang Qu, Yalan Fan, Anling Liu, Dandan Chen, Zhaoming Luo, Xing Hu, and Tongwen Wu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1, 2024
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This article gives an overview introduction of the IAP-CAS S2S (sub-seasonal to seasonal) ensemble forecasting system and MJO forecast evaluation of the system. Compared to other S2S models, the IAP-CAS model has its advantages but also exhibits some biases, including underdispersive ensemble, overestimated amplitude and faster propagation speed when forecasting MJO. We also provide the explanation towards these biases and prospects for further improvement of this system in the future.
Tian Gan, Gregory E. Tucker, Eric W. H. Hutton, Mark D. Piper, Irina Overeem, Albert J. Kettner, Benjamin Campforts, Julia M. Moriarty, Brianna Undzis, Ethan Pierce, and Lynn McCready
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2165–2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2165-2024, 2024
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This study presents the design, implementation, and application of the CSDMS Data Components. The case studies demonstrate that the Data Components provide a consistent way to access heterogeneous datasets from multiple sources, and to seamlessly integrate them with various models for Earth surface process modeling. The Data Components support the creation of open data–model integration workflows to improve the research transparency and reproducibility.
Jérémy Bernard, Erwan Bocher, Matthieu Gousseff, François Leconte, and Elisabeth Le Saux Wiederhold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2077–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2077-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2077-2024, 2024
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Geographical features may have a considerable effect on local climate. The local climate zone (LCZ) system proposed by Stewart and Oke (2012) is seen as a standard approach for classifying any zone according to a set of geographic indicators. While many methods already exist to map the LCZ, only a few tools are openly and freely available. We present the algorithm implemented in GeoClimate software to identify the LCZ of any place in the world using OpenStreetMap data.
Thomas Extier, Thibaut Caley, and Didier M. Roche
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2117–2139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2117-2024, 2024
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Stable water isotopes are used to infer changes in the hydrological cycle for different time periods in climatic archive and climate models. We present the implementation of the δ2H and δ17O water isotopes in the coupled climate model iLOVECLIM and calculate the d- and 17O-excess. Results of a simulation under preindustrial conditions show that the model correctly reproduces the water isotope distribution in the atmosphere and ocean in comparison to data and other global circulation models.
Joseph P. Hollowed, Christiane Jablonowski, Hunter Y. Brown, Benjamin R. Hillman, Diana L. Bull, and Joseph L. Hart
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-335, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-335, 2024
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Large volcanic eruptions deposit material into the upper-atmosphere, which is capable of altering temperature and wind patterns of the Earth's atmosphere for years following. This research describes a new method of simulating these effects in an idealized, efficient atmospheric model. A volcanic eruption of sulfur dioxide is described with a simplified set of physical rules, which eventually cools the planetary surface. This model has been designed as a testbed for climate attribution studies.
Kirsten L. Findell, Zun Yin, Eunkyo Seo, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Nathan P. Arnold, Nathaniel Chaney, Megan D. Fowler, Meng Huang, David M. Lawrence, Po-Lun Ma, and Joseph A. Santanello Jr.
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1869–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1869-2024, 2024
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We outline a request for sub-daily data to accurately capture the process-level connections between land states, surface fluxes, and the boundary layer response. This high-frequency model output will allow for more direct comparison with observational field campaigns on process-relevant timescales, enable demonstration of inter-model spread in land–atmosphere coupling processes, and aid in targeted identification of sources of deficiencies and opportunities for improvement of the models.
Marlene Klockmann, Udo von Toussaint, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1765–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1765-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1765-2024, 2024
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Reconstructions of climate variability before the observational period rely on climate proxies and sophisticated statistical models to link the proxy information and climate variability. Existing models tend to underestimate the true magnitude of variability, especially if the proxies contain non-climatic noise. We present and test a promising new framework for climate-index reconstructions, based on Gaussian processes, which reconstructs robust variability estimates from noisy and sparse data.
Aaron A. Naidoo-Bagwell, Fanny M. Monteiro, Katharine R. Hendry, Scott Burgan, Jamie D. Wilson, Ben A. Ward, Andy Ridgwell, and Daniel J. Conley
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1729–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1729-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1729-2024, 2024
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As an extension to the EcoGEnIE 1.0 Earth system model that features a diverse plankton community, EcoGEnIE 1.1 includes siliceous plankton diatoms and also considers their impact on biogeochemical cycles. With updates to existing nutrient cycles and the introduction of the silicon cycle, we see improved model performance relative to observational data. Through a more functionally diverse plankton community, the new model enables more comprehensive future study of ocean ecology.
Martin Butzin, Ying Ye, Christoph Völker, Özgür Gürses, Judith Hauck, and Peter Köhler
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1709–1727, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1709-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1709-2024, 2024
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In this paper we describe the implementation of the carbon isotopes 13C and 14C into the marine biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1-REcoM3 and present results of long-term test simulations. Our model results are largely consistent with marine carbon isotope reconstructions for the pre-anthropogenic period, but also exhibit some discrepancies.
Sven Karsten, Hagen Radtke, Matthias Gröger, Ha T. M. Ho-Hagemann, Hossein Mashayekh, Thomas Neumann, and H. E. Markus Meier
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1689–1708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1689-2024, 2024
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This paper describes the development of a regional Earth System Model for the Baltic Sea region. In contrast to conventional coupling approaches, the presented model includes a flux calculator operating on a common exchange grid. This approach automatically ensures a locally consistent treatment of fluxes and simplifies the exchange of model components. The presented model can be used for various scientific questions, such as studies of natural variability and ocean–atmosphere interactions.
Skyler Graap and Colin M. Zarzycki
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1627–1650, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1627-2024, 2024
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A key target for improving climate models is how low, bright clouds are predicted over tropical oceans, since they have important consequences for the Earth's energy budget. A climate model has been updated to improve the physical realism of the treatment of how momentum is moved up and down in the atmosphere. By comparing this updated model to real-world observations from balloon launches, it can be shown to more accurately depict atmospheric structure in trade-wind areas close to the Equator.
Marika M. Holland, Cecile Hannay, John Fasullo, Alexandra Jahn, Jennifer E. Kay, Michael Mills, Isla R. Simpson, William Wieder, Peter Lawrence, Erik Kluzek, and David Bailey
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1585–1602, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024, 2024
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Climate evolves in response to changing forcings, as prescribed in simulations. Models and forcings are updated over time to reflect new understanding. This makes it difficult to attribute simulation differences to either model or forcing changes. Here we present new simulations which enable the separation of model structure and forcing influence between two widely used simulation sets. Results indicate a strong influence of aerosol emission uncertainty on historical climate.
Rongyun Tang, Mingzhou Jin, Jiafu Mao, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Anping Chen, and Yulong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1525–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1525-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1525-2024, 2024
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Carbon-rich boreal peatlands are at risk of burning. The reproducibility and predictability of rare peatland fire events are investigated by constructing a two-step error-correcting machine learning framework to tackle such complex systems. Fire occurrence and impacts are highly predictable with our approach. Factor-controlling simulations revealed that temperature, moisture, and freeze–thaw cycles control boreal peatland fires, indicating thermal impacts on causing peat fires.
Allison B. Collow, Peter R. Colarco, Arlindo M. da Silva, Virginie Buchard, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Sampa Das, Ravi Govindaraju, Dongchul Kim, and Valentina Aquila
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1443–1468, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1443-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1443-2024, 2024
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The GOCART aerosol module within the Goddard Earth Observing System recently underwent a major refactoring and update to the representation of physical processes. Code changes that were included in GOCART Second Generation (GOCART-2G) are documented, and we establish a benchmark simulation that is to be used for future development of the system. The 4-year benchmark simulation was evaluated using in situ and spaceborne measurements to develop a baseline and prioritize future development.
Oksana Guba, Mark A. Taylor, Peter A. Bosler, Christopher Eldred, and Peter H. Lauritzen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1429–1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1429-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We want to reduce errors in the moist energy budget in numerical atmospheric models. We study a few common assumptions and mechanisms that are used for the moist physics. Some mechanisms are more consistent with the underlying equations. Separately, we study how assumptions about models' thermodynamics affect the modeled energy of precipitation. We also explain how to conserve energy in the moist physics for nonhydrostatic models.
Konstantin Aiteew, Jarno Rouhiainen, Claas Nendel, and René Dechow
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1349–1385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1349-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated the biogeochemical model MONICA and its performance in simulating soil organic carbon changes. MONICA can reproduce plant growth, carbon and nitrogen dynamics, soil water and temperature. The model results were compared with five established carbon turnover models. With the exception of certain sites, adequate reproduction of soil organic carbon stock change rates was achieved. The MONICA model was capable of performing similar to or even better than the other models.
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Short summary
This paper describes GCAM v5.1, an open source model that represents the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems. GCAM examines the future evolution of these systems through the end of the 21st century. It can be used to examine, for example, how changes in population, income, or technology cost might alter crop production, energy demand, or water withdrawals, or how changes in one region’s demand for energy affect energy, water, and land in other regions.
This paper describes GCAM v5.1, an open source model that represents the linkages between...
