Articles | Volume 10, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4229-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4229-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
23 Nov 2017
Model evaluation paper |
| 23 Nov 2017
Evaluation of the wind farm parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting model (version 3.8.1) with meteorological and turbine power data
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of
Colorado, UCB 311, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO, USA
Julie K. Lundquist
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of
Colorado, UCB 311, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO, USA
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Nathan J. Agarwal, Julie K. Lundquist, Timothy W. Juliano, and Alex Rybchuk
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-16, 2025
Preprint under review for WES
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Models of wind behavior inform offshore wind farm site investment decisions. Here we compare a newly-developed model to another, historically-used, model based on how these models represent winds and turbulence at two North Sea sites. The best model depends on the site. While the older model performs best at the site above a wind farm, the newer model performs best at the site that is at the same altitude as the wind farm. We support using the new model to represent winds at the turbine level.
Daphne Quint, Julie K. Lundquist, and David Rosencrans
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 117–142, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-117-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-117-2025, 2025
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Offshore wind farms will be built along the East Coast of the United States. Low-level jets (LLJs) – layers of fast winds at low altitudes – also occur here. LLJs provide wind resources and also influence moisture and pollution transport, so it is important to understand how they might change. We develop and validate an automated tool to detect LLJs and compare 1 year of simulations with and without wind farms. Here, we describe LLJ characteristics and how they change with wind farms.
David Rosencrans, Julie K. Lundquist, Mike Optis, and Nicola Bodini
Wind Energ. Sci., 10, 59–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-59-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-10-59-2025, 2025
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The US offshore wind industry is growing rapidly. Expansion into cold climates will subject turbines and personnel to hazardous icing. We analyze the 21-year icing risk for US east coast wind areas based on numerical weather prediction simulations and further assess impacts from wind farm wakes over one winter season. Sea spray icing at 10 m can occur up to 67 h per month. However, turbine–atmosphere interactions reduce icing hours within wind plant areas.
William Radünz, Bruno Carmo, Julie K. Lundquist, Stefano Letizia, Aliza Abraham, Adam S. Wise, Miguel Sanchez Gomez, Nicholas Hamilton, Raj K. Rai, and Pedro S. Peixoto
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-166, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-166, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for WES
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This study investigates how simple terrain can cause significant variations in wind speed, especially during specific atmospheric conditions like low-level jets. By combining simulations and observations from a real wind farm, we found that downstream turbines generate more power than upstream ones, despite wake effects only impacting the upstream turbines. We highlight the crucial role of the strong vertical wind speed gradient in low-level jets in driving this effect.
Robert S. Arthur, Alex Rybchuk, Timothy W. Juliano, Gabriel Rios, Sonia Wharton, Julie K. Lundquist, and Jerome D. Fast
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-137, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for WES
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This paper evaluates a new model configuration for wind energy forecasting in complex terrain. We compare model results to observations in the Altamont Pass (California, USA), where wind channeling through a mountain pass leads to increased energy production. We show evidence of improved wind speed and turbulence predictions compared to a more established modeling approach. Our work helps to ensure the robustness of the new model configuration for future wind energy applications.
Rachel Robey and Julie K. Lundquist
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 1905–1922, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1905-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-1905-2024, 2024
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Measurements of wind turbine wakes with scanning lidar instruments contain complex errors. We model lidars in a simulated environment to understand how and why the measured wake may differ from the true wake and validate the results with observational data. The lidar smooths out the wake, making it seem more spread out and the slowdown of the winds less pronounced. Our findings provide insights into best practices for accurately measuring wakes with lidar and interpreting observational data.
Daphne Quint, Julie K. Lundquist, Nicola Bodini, and David Rosencrans
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-53, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2024-53, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for WES
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Offshore wind farms along the US east coast can have limited effects on local weather. Studying this, we used a weather model to compare conditions with and without wind farms near Massachusetts and Rhode Island. We analyzed changes in wind, temperature, and turbulence. Results show reduced wind speeds near and downwind of wind farms, especially during stability and high winds. Turbulence increases near wind farms, affecting boundary-layer height and wake size.
Nicola Bodini, Mike Optis, Stephanie Redfern, David Rosencrans, Alex Rybchuk, Julie K. Lundquist, Vincent Pronk, Simon Castagneri, Avi Purkayastha, Caroline Draxl, Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, Ethan Young, Billy Roberts, Evan Rosenlieb, and Walter Musial
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1965–2006, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1965-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1965-2024, 2024
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This article presents the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23), an updated resource for offshore wind information in the US. It replaces the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, offering improved accuracy through advanced weather prediction models. The data underwent regional tuning and validation and can be accessed at no cost.
David Rosencrans, Julie K. Lundquist, Mike Optis, Alex Rybchuk, Nicola Bodini, and Michael Rossol
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 555–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-555-2024, 2024
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The US offshore wind industry is developing rapidly. Using yearlong simulations of wind plants in the US mid-Atlantic, we assess the impacts of wind turbine wakes. While wakes are the strongest and longest during summertime stably stratified conditions, when New England grid demand peaks, they are predictable and thus manageable. Over a year, wakes reduce power output by over 35 %. Wakes in a wind plant contribute the most to that reduction, while wakes between wind plants play a secondary role.
Miguel Sanchez Gomez, Julie K. Lundquist, Jeffrey D. Mirocha, and Robert S. Arthur
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 1049–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1049-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1049-2023, 2023
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The wind slows down as it approaches a wind plant; this phenomenon is called blockage. As a result, the turbines in the wind plant produce less power than initially anticipated. We investigate wind plant blockage for two atmospheric conditions. Blockage is larger for a wind plant compared to a stand-alone turbine. Also, blockage increases with atmospheric stability. Blockage is amplified by the vertical transport of horizontal momentum as the wind approaches the front-row turbines in the array.
Paul Veers, Katherine Dykes, Sukanta Basu, Alessandro Bianchini, Andrew Clifton, Peter Green, Hannele Holttinen, Lena Kitzing, Branko Kosovic, Julie K. Lundquist, Johan Meyers, Mark O'Malley, William J. Shaw, and Bethany Straw
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2491–2496, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2491-2022, 2022
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Wind energy will play a central role in the transition of our energy system to a carbon-free future. However, many underlying scientific issues remain to be resolved before wind can be deployed in the locations and applications needed for such large-scale ambitions. The Grand Challenges are the gaps in the science left behind during the rapid growth of wind energy. This article explains the breadth of the unfinished business and introduces 10 articles that detail the research needs.
Alex Rybchuk, Timothy W. Juliano, Julie K. Lundquist, David Rosencrans, Nicola Bodini, and Mike Optis
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2085–2098, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2085-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2085-2022, 2022
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Numerical weather prediction models are used to predict how wind turbines will interact with the atmosphere. Here, we characterize the uncertainty associated with the choice of turbulence parameterization on modeled wakes. We find that simulated wind speed deficits in turbine wakes can be significantly sensitive to the choice of turbulence parameterization. As such, predictions of future generated power are also sensitive to turbulence parameterization choice.
Rachel Robey and Julie K. Lundquist
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 4585–4622, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-4585-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-4585-2022, 2022
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Our work investigates the behavior of errors in remote-sensing wind lidar measurements due to turbulence. Using a virtual instrument, we measured winds in simulated atmospheric flows and decomposed the resulting error. Dominant error mechanisms, particularly vertical velocity variations and interactions with shear, were identified in ensemble data over three test cases. By analyzing the underlying mechanisms, the response of the error behavior to further varying flow conditions may be projected.
Vincent Pronk, Nicola Bodini, Mike Optis, Julie K. Lundquist, Patrick Moriarty, Caroline Draxl, Avi Purkayastha, and Ethan Young
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 487–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-487-2022, 2022
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In this paper, we have assessed to which extent mesoscale numerical weather prediction models are more accurate than state-of-the-art reanalysis products in characterizing the wind resource at heights of interest for wind energy. The conclusions of our work will be of primary importance to the wind industry for recommending the best data sources for wind resource modeling.
Adam S. Wise, James M. T. Neher, Robert S. Arthur, Jeffrey D. Mirocha, Julie K. Lundquist, and Fotini K. Chow
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 367–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-367-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-367-2022, 2022
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Wind turbine wake behavior in hilly terrain depends on various atmospheric conditions. We modeled a wind turbine located on top of a ridge in Portugal during typical nighttime and daytime atmospheric conditions and validated these model results with observational data. During nighttime conditions, the wake deflected downwards following the terrain. During daytime conditions, the wake deflected upwards. These results can provide insight into wind turbine siting and operation in hilly regions.
Hannah Livingston, Nicola Bodini, and Julie K. Lundquist
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2021-68, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2021-68, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
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In this paper, we assess whether hub-height turbulence can easily be quantified from either other hub-height variables or ground-level measurements in complex terrain. We find a large variability across the three considered locations when trying to model hub-height turbulence intensity and turbulence kinetic energy. Our results highlight the nonlinear and complex nature of atmospheric turbulence, so that more powerful techniques should instead be recommended to model hub-height turbulence.
Miguel Sanchez Gomez, Julie K. Lundquist, Petra M. Klein, and Tyler M. Bell
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3539–3549, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3539-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3539-2021, 2021
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In July 2018, the International Society for Atmospheric Research using Remotely-piloted Aircraft (ISARRA) hosted a flight week to demonstrate unmanned aircraft systems' capabilities in sampling the atmospheric boundary layer. Three Doppler lidars were deployed during this week-long experiment. We use data from these lidars to estimate turbulence dissipation rate. We observe large temporal variability and significant differences in dissipation for lidars with different sampling techniques.
Miguel Sanchez Gomez, Julie K. Lundquist, Jeffrey D. Mirocha, Robert S. Arthur, and Domingo Muñoz-Esparza
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2021-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2021-57, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Winds decelerate upstream of a wind plant as turbines obstruct and extract energy from the flow. This effect is known as wind plant blockage. We assess how atmospheric stability modifies the upstream wind plant blockage. We find stronger stability amplifies this effect. We also explore different approaches to quantifying blockage from field-like observations. We find different methodologies may induce errors of the same order of magnitude as the blockage-induced velocity deficits.
Alex Rybchuk, Mike Optis, Julie K. Lundquist, Michael Rossol, and Walt Musial
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-50, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
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We characterize the wind resource off the coast of California by conducting simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model between 2000 and 2019. We compare newly simulated winds to those from the WIND Toolkit. The newly simulated winds are substantially stronger, particularly in the late summer. We also conduct a refined analysis at three areas that are being considered for commercial development, finding that stronger winds translates to substantially more power here.
Tyler M. Bell, Petra M. Klein, Julie K. Lundquist, and Sean Waugh
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1041–1051, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1041-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1041-2021, 2021
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In July 2018, numerous weather sensing remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPASs) were flown in a flight week called Lower Atmospheric Process Studies at Elevation – a Remotely-piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE). As part of LAPSE-RATE, ground-based remote and in situ systems were also deployed to supplement and enhance observations from the RPASs. These instruments include multiple Doppler lidars, thermodynamic profilers, and radiosondes. This paper describes data from these systems.
Caroline Draxl, Rochelle P. Worsnop, Geng Xia, Yelena Pichugina, Duli Chand, Julie K. Lundquist, Justin Sharp, Garrett Wedam, James M. Wilczak, and Larry K. Berg
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 45–60, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-45-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-45-2021, 2021
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Mountain waves can create oscillations in low-level wind speeds and subsequently in the power output of wind plants. We document such oscillations by analyzing sodar and lidar observations, nacelle wind speeds, power observations, and Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations. This research describes how mountain waves form in the Columbia River basin and affect wind energy production and their impact on operational forecasting, wind plant layout, and integration of power into the grid.
Jessica M. Tomaszewski and Julie K. Lundquist
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1-2021, 2021
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We use a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model to conduct a case study of a thunderstorm outflow passing over and interacting with a wind farm. These simulations and observations from a nearby radar and surface station confirm that interactions with the wind farm cause the outflow to reduce its speed by over 20 km h−1, with brief but significant impacts on the local meteorology, including temperature, moisture, and winds. Precipitation accumulation across the region was unaffected.
Gijs de Boer, Adam Houston, Jamey Jacob, Phillip B. Chilson, Suzanne W. Smith, Brian Argrow, Dale Lawrence, Jack Elston, David Brus, Osku Kemppinen, Petra Klein, Julie K. Lundquist, Sean Waugh, Sean C. C. Bailey, Amy Frazier, Michael P. Sama, Christopher Crick, David Schmale III, James Pinto, Elizabeth A. Pillar-Little, Victoria Natalie, and Anders Jensen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3357–3366, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3357-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3357-2020, 2020
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This paper provides an overview of the Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation – a Remotely-piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE) field campaign, held from 14 to 20 July 2018. This field campaign spanned a 1-week deployment to Colorado's San Luis Valley, involving over 100 students, scientists, engineers, pilots, and outreach coordinators. This overview paper provides insight into the campaign for a special issue focused on the datasets collected during LAPSE-RATE.
Antonia Englberger, Julie K. Lundquist, and Andreas Dörnbrack
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 1623–1644, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-1623-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-1623-2020, 2020
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Wind turbines rotate clockwise. The rotational direction of the rotor interacts with the nighttime veering wind, resulting in a rotational-direction impact on the wake. In the case of counterclockwise-rotating blades the streamwise velocity in the wake is larger in the Northern Hemisphere whereas it is smaller in the Southern Hemisphere.
Antonia Englberger, Andreas Dörnbrack, and Julie K. Lundquist
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 1359–1374, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-1359-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-1359-2020, 2020
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At night, the wind direction often changes with height, and this veer affects structures near the surface like wind turbines. Wind turbines usually rotate clockwise, but this rotational direction interacts with veer to impact the flow field behind a wind turbine. If another turbine is located downwind, the direction of the upwind turbine's rotation will affect the downwind turbine.
Nicola Bodini, Julie K. Lundquist, and Mike Optis
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4271–4285, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4271-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4271-2020, 2020
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While turbulence dissipation rate (ε) is an essential parameter for the prediction of wind speed, its current representation in weather prediction models is inaccurate, especially in complex terrain. In this study, we leverage the potential of machine-learning techniques to provide a more accurate representation of turbulence dissipation rate. Our results show a 30 % reduction in the average error compared to the current model representation of ε and a total elimination of its average bias.
Patrick Murphy, Julie K. Lundquist, and Paul Fleming
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 1169–1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-1169-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-1169-2020, 2020
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We present and evaluate an improved method for predicting wind turbine power production based on measurements of the wind speed and direction profile across the rotor disk for a wind turbine in complex terrain. By comparing predictions to actual power production from a utility-scale wind turbine, we show this method is more accurate than methods based on hub-height wind speed or surface-based atmospheric characterization.
Paul Fleming, Jennifer King, Eric Simley, Jason Roadman, Andrew Scholbrock, Patrick Murphy, Julie K. Lundquist, Patrick Moriarty, Katherine Fleming, Jeroen van Dam, Christopher Bay, Rafael Mudafort, David Jager, Jason Skopek, Michael Scott, Brady Ryan, Charles Guernsey, and Dan Brake
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 945–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-945-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-945-2020, 2020
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This paper presents the results of a field campaign investigating the performance of wake steering applied at a section of a commercial wind farm. It is the second phase of the study for which the first phase was reported in a companion paper (https://wes.copernicus.org/articles/4/273/2019/). The authors implemented wake steering on two turbine pairs and compared results with the latest FLORIS model of wake steering, showing good agreement in overall energy increase.
Jessica M. Tomaszewski and Julie K. Lundquist
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2645–2662, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2645-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2645-2020, 2020
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Wind farms can briefly impact the nearby environment by reducing wind speeds and mixing warmer air down to the surface. The wind farm parameterization (WFP) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is a tool that numerically simulates wind farms and these meteorological impacts. We highlight the importance of choice in model settings and find that sufficiently fine vertical and horizontal grids with turbine turbulence are needed to accurately simulate wind farm meteorological impacts.
Philipp Gasch, Andreas Wieser, Julie K. Lundquist, and Norbert Kalthoff
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 1609–1631, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-1609-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-1609-2020, 2020
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We present an airborne Doppler lidar simulator (ADLS) based on high-resolution atmospheric wind fields (LES). The ADLS is used to evaluate the retrieval accuracy of airborne wind profiling under turbulent, inhomogeneous wind field conditions inside the boundary layer. With the ADLS, the error due to the violation of the wind field homogeneity assumption used for retrieval can be revealed. For the conditions considered, flow inhomogeneities exert a dominant influence on wind profiling error.
Simon K. Siedersleben, Andreas Platis, Julie K. Lundquist, Bughsin Djath, Astrid Lampert, Konrad Bärfuss, Beatriz Cañadillas, Johannes Schulz-Stellenfleth, Jens Bange, Tom Neumann, and Stefan Emeis
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 249–268, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-249-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-249-2020, 2020
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Wind farms affect local weather and microclimates. These effects can be simulated in weather models, usually by removing momentum at the location of the wind farm. Some debate exists whether additional turbulence should be added to capture the enhanced mixing of wind farms. By comparing simulations to measurements from airborne campaigns near offshore wind farms, we show that additional turbulence is necessary. Without added turbulence, the mixing is underestimated during stable conditions.
Miguel Sanchez Gomez and Julie K. Lundquist
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 125–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-125-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-125-2020, 2020
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Wind turbine performance depends on various atmospheric conditions. We quantified the effect of the change in wind direction and speed with height (direction and speed wind shear) on turbine power at a wind farm in Iowa. Turbine performance was affected during large direction shear and small speed shear conditions and favored for the opposite scenarios. These effects make direction shear significant when analyzing the influence of different atmospheric variables on turbine operation.
Norman Wildmann, Nicola Bodini, Julie K. Lundquist, Ludovic Bariteau, and Johannes Wagner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 6401–6423, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-6401-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-6401-2019, 2019
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Turbulence is the variation of wind velocity on short timescales. In this study we introduce a new method to measure turbulence in a two-dimensionial plane with lidar instruments. The method allows for the detection and quantification of subareas of distinct turbulence conditions in the observed plane. We compare the results to point and profile measurements with more established instruments. It is shown that turbulence below low-level jets and in wind turbine wakes can be investigated this way.
Laura Bianco, Irina V. Djalalova, James M. Wilczak, Joseph B. Olson, Jaymes S. Kenyon, Aditya Choukulkar, Larry K. Berg, Harindra J. S. Fernando, Eric P. Grimit, Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, Julie K. Lundquist, Paytsar Muradyan, Mikhail Pekour, Yelena Pichugina, Mark T. Stoelinga, and David D. Turner
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4803–4821, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4803-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4803-2019, 2019
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During the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project, improvements to the parameterizations were applied to the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model and its nested version. The impacts of the new parameterizations on the forecast of 80 m wind speeds and power are assessed, using sodars and profiling lidars observations for comparison. Improvements are evaluated as a function of the model’s initialization time, forecast horizon, time of the day, season, site elevation, and meteorological phenomena.
Paul Fleming, Jennifer King, Katherine Dykes, Eric Simley, Jason Roadman, Andrew Scholbrock, Patrick Murphy, Julie K. Lundquist, Patrick Moriarty, Katherine Fleming, Jeroen van Dam, Christopher Bay, Rafael Mudafort, Hector Lopez, Jason Skopek, Michael Scott, Brady Ryan, Charles Guernsey, and Dan Brake
Wind Energ. Sci., 4, 273–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-4-273-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-4-273-2019, 2019
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Wake steering is a form of wind farm control in which turbines use yaw offsets to affect wakes in order to yield an increase in total energy production. In this first phase of a study of wake steering at a commercial wind farm, two turbines implement a schedule of offsets. For two closely spaced turbines, an approximate 14 % increase in energy was measured on the downstream turbine over a 10° sector, with a 4 % increase in energy production of the combined turbine pair.
Nicola Bodini, Julie K. Lundquist, Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, Mikhail Pekour, Larry K. Berg, and Aditya Choukulkar
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 4367–4382, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4367-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4367-2019, 2019
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To improve the parameterization of the turbulence dissipation rate (ε) in numerical weather prediction models, we have assessed its temporal and spatial variability at various scales in the Columbia River Gorge during the WFIP2 field experiment. The turbulence dissipation rate shows large spatial variability, even at the microscale, with larger values in sites located downwind of complex orographic structures or in wind farm wakes. Distinct diurnal and seasonal cycles in ε have also been found.
Robert Menke, Nikola Vasiljević, Jakob Mann, and Julie K. Lundquist
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2713–2723, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2713-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2713-2019, 2019
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This research utilizes several months of lidar measurements from the Perdigão 2017 campaign to investigate flow recirculation zones that occur at the two parallel ridges at the measurement site in Portugal. We found that recirculation occurs in over 50 % of the time when the wind direction is perpendicular to the direction of the ridges. Moreover, we show three-dimensional changes of the zones along the ridges and the implications of recirculation on wind turbines that are operating downstream.
Joseph C. Y. Lee, M. Jason Fields, and Julie K. Lundquist
Wind Energ. Sci., 3, 845–868, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-845-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-845-2018, 2018
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To find the ideal way to quantify long-term wind-speed variability, we compare 27 metrics using 37 years of wind and energy data. We conclude that the robust coefficient of variation can effectively assess and correlate wind-speed and energy-production variabilities. We derive adequate results via monthly mean data, whereas uncertainty arises in interannual variability calculations. We find that reliable estimates of wind-speed variability require 10 ± 3 years of monthly mean wind data.
Jessica M. Tomaszewski, Julie K. Lundquist, Matthew J. Churchfield, and Patrick J. Moriarty
Wind Energ. Sci., 3, 833–843, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-833-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-833-2018, 2018
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Wind energy development has increased rapidly in rural locations of the United States, areas that also serve general aviation airports. The spinning rotor of a wind turbine creates an area of increased turbulence, and we question if this turbulent air could pose rolling hazards for light aircraft flying behind turbines. We analyze high-resolution simulations of wind flowing past a turbine to quantify the rolling risk and find that wind turbines pose no significant roll hazards to light aircraft.
Nicola Bodini, Julie K. Lundquist, and Rob K. Newsom
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 4291–4308, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-4291-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-4291-2018, 2018
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Turbulence within the atmospheric boundary layer is critically important to transfer heat, momentum, and moisture. Currently, improved turbulence parametrizations are crucially needed to refine the accuracy of model results at fine horizontal scales. In this study, we calculate turbulence dissipation rate from sonic anemometers and discuss a novel approach to derive turbulence dissipation from profiling lidar measurements.
Rochelle P. Worsnop, Michael Scheuerer, Thomas M. Hamill, and Julie K. Lundquist
Wind Energ. Sci., 3, 371–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-371-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-371-2018, 2018
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This paper uses four statistical methods to generate probabilistic wind speed and power ramp forecasts from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model. The results show that these methods can provide necessary uncertainty information of power ramp forecasts. These probabilistic forecasts can aid in decisions regarding power production and grid integration of wind power.
Nicola Bodini, Dino Zardi, and Julie K. Lundquist
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 2881–2896, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2881-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2881-2017, 2017
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Wind turbine wakes have considerable impacts on downwind turbines in wind farms, given their slower wind speeds and increased turbulence. Based on lidar measurements, we apply a quantitative algorithm to assess wake parameters for wakes from a row of four turbines in CWEX-13 campaign. We describe how wake characteristics evolve, and for the first time we quantify the relation between wind veer and a stretching of the wake structures, and we highlight different results for inner and outer wakes.
Clara M. St. Martin, Julie K. Lundquist, Andrew Clifton, Gregory S. Poulos, and Scott J. Schreck
Wind Energ. Sci., 2, 295–306, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2-295-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2-295-2017, 2017
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We use upwind and nacelle-based measurements from a wind turbine and investigate the influence of atmospheric stability and turbulence regimes on nacelle transfer functions (NTFs) used to correct nacelle-mounted anemometer measurements. This work shows that correcting nacelle winds using NTFs results in similar energy production estimates to those obtained using upwind tower-based wind speeds. Further, stability and turbulence metrics have been found to have an effect on NTFs below rated speed.
Laura Bianco, Katja Friedrich, James M. Wilczak, Duane Hazen, Daniel Wolfe, Ruben Delgado, Steven P. Oncley, and Julie K. Lundquist
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 1707–1721, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-1707-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-1707-2017, 2017
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XPIA is a study held in 2015 at NOAA's Boulder Atmospheric Observatory facility, aimed at assessing remote-sensing capabilities for wind energy applications. We use well-defined reference systems to validate temperature retrieved by two microwave radiometers (MWRs) and virtual temperature measured by wind profiling radars with radio acoustic sounding systems (RASSs). Water vapor density and relative humidity by the MWRs were also compared with similar measurements from the reference systems.
Rob K. Newsom, W. Alan Brewer, James M. Wilczak, Daniel E. Wolfe, Steven P. Oncley, and Julie K. Lundquist
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 1229–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-1229-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-1229-2017, 2017
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Doppler lidars are remote sensing instruments that use infrared light to measure wind velocity in the lowest 2 to 3 km of the atmosphere. Quantifying the uncertainty in these measurements is crucial for applications ranging from wind resource assessment to model data assimilation. In this study, we evaluate three methods for estimating the random uncertainty by comparing the lidar wind measurements with nearly collocated in situ wind measurements at multiple levels on a tall tower.
Mithu Debnath, Giacomo Valerio Iungo, W. Alan Brewer, Aditya Choukulkar, Ruben Delgado, Scott Gunter, Julie K. Lundquist, John L. Schroeder, James M. Wilczak, and Daniel Wolfe
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 1215–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-1215-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-1215-2017, 2017
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The XPIA experiment was conducted in 2015 at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory to estimate capabilities of various remote-sensing techniques for the characterization of complex atmospheric flows. Among different tests, XPIA provided the unique opportunity to perform simultaneous virtual towers with Ka-band radars and scanning Doppler wind lidars. Wind speed and wind direction were assessed against lidar profilers and sonic anemometer data, highlighting a good accuracy of the data retrieved.
Mithu Debnath, G. Valerio Iungo, Ryan Ashton, W. Alan Brewer, Aditya Choukulkar, Ruben Delgado, Julie K. Lundquist, William J. Shaw, James M. Wilczak, and Daniel Wolfe
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 431–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-431-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-431-2017, 2017
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Triple RHI scans were performed with three simultaneous scanning Doppler wind lidars and assessed with lidar profiler and sonic anemometer data. This test is part of the XPIA experiment. The scan strategy consists in two lidars performing co-planar RHI scans, while a third lidar measures the transversal velocity component. The results show that horizontal velocity and wind direction are measured with good accuracy, while the vertical velocity is typically measured with a significant error.
Katherine McCaffrey, Paul T. Quelet, Aditya Choukulkar, James M. Wilczak, Daniel E. Wolfe, Steven P. Oncley, W. Alan Brewer, Mithu Debnath, Ryan Ashton, G. Valerio Iungo, and Julie K. Lundquist
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 393–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-393-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-393-2017, 2017
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During the eXperimental Planetary boundary layer Instrumentation Assessment (XPIA) field campaign, the wake and flow distortion from a 300-meter meteorological tower was identified using pairs of sonic anemometers mounted on opposite sides of the tower, as well as profiling and scanning lidars. Wind speed deficits up to 50% and TKE increases of 2 orders of magnitude were observed at wind directions in the wake, along with wind direction differences (flow deflection) outside of the wake.
Aditya Choukulkar, W. Alan Brewer, Scott P. Sandberg, Ann Weickmann, Timothy A. Bonin, R. Michael Hardesty, Julie K. Lundquist, Ruben Delgado, G. Valerio Iungo, Ryan Ashton, Mithu Debnath, Laura Bianco, James M. Wilczak, Steven Oncley, and Daniel Wolfe
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 247–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-247-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-247-2017, 2017
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This paper discusses trade-offs among various wind measurement strategies using scanning Doppler lidars. It is found that the trade-off exists between being able to make highly precise point measurements versus covering large spatial extents. The highest measurement precision is achieved when multiple lidar systems make wind measurements at one point in space, while highest spatial coverage is achieved through using single lidar scanning measurements and using complex retrieval techniques.
Clara M. St. Martin, Julie K. Lundquist, Andrew Clifton, Gregory S. Poulos, and Scott J. Schreck
Wind Energ. Sci., 1, 221–236, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-1-221-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-1-221-2016, 2016
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We use turbine nacelle-based measurements and measurements from an upwind tower to calculate wind turbine power curves and predict the production of energy. We explore how different atmospheric parameters impact these power curves and energy production estimates. Results show statistically significant differences between power curves and production estimates calculated with turbulence and stability filters, and we suggest implementing an additional step in analyzing power performance data.
Nicola Bodini, Julie K. Lundquist, Dino Zardi, and Mark Handschy
Wind Energ. Sci., 1, 115–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-1-115-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-1-115-2016, 2016
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Year-to-year variability of wind speeds limits the certainty of wind-plant preconstruction energy estimates ("resource assessments"). Using 62-year records from 60 stations across Canada we show that resource highs and lows persist for decades, which makes estimates 2–3 times less certain than if annual levels were uncorrelated. Comparing chronological data records with randomly permuted versions of the same data reveals this in an unambiguous and easy-to-understand way.
J. K. Lundquist, M. J. Churchfield, S. Lee, and A. Clifton
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 907–920, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-907-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-907-2015, 2015
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Wind-profiling lidars are now regularly used in boundary-layer meteorology and in applications like wind energy, but their use often relies on assuming homogeneity in the wind. Using numerical simulations of stable flow past a wind turbine, we quantify the error expected because of the inhomogeneity of the flow. Large errors (30%) in winds are found near the wind turbine, but by three rotor diameters downwind, errors in the horizontal components have decreased to 15% of the inflow.
Related subject area
Atmospheric sciences
Evaluation of dust emission and land surface schemes in predicting a mega Asian dust storm over South Korea using WRF-Chem
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A Bayesian method for predicting background radiation at environmental monitoring stations in local-scale networks
Inclusion of the ECMWF ecRad radiation scheme (v1.5.0) in the MAR (v3.14), regional evaluation for Belgium, and assessment of surface shortwave spectral fluxes at Uccle
Development of a fast radiative transfer model for ground-based microwave radiometers (ARMS-gb v1.0): validation and comparison to RTTOV-gb
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) High-Resolution Global Forecast Model version 1: an attempt to resolve monsoon prediction deadlock
Cell-tracking-based framework for assessing nowcasting model skill in reproducing growth and decay of convective rainfall
NeuralMie (v1.0): an aerosol optics emulator
Simulation performance of planetary boundary layer schemes in WRF v4.3.1 for near-surface wind over the western Sichuan Basin: a single-site assessment
FootNet v1.0: development of a machine learning emulator of atmospheric transport
Updates and evaluation of NOAA's online-coupled air quality model version 7 (AQMv7) within the Unified Forecast System
Quantifying the analysis uncertainty for nowcasting application
Improving the ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) in the Community Inversion Framework: a case study with ICON-ART 2024.01
The MESSy DWARF (based on MESSy v2.55.2)
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Identifying lightning processes in ERA5 soundings with deep learning
Sensitivity of predicted ultrafine particle size distributions in Europe to different nucleation rate parameterizations using PMCAMx-UF v2.2
Explaining neural networks for detection of tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers in gridded atmospheric simulation data
PALACE v1.0: Paranal Airglow Line And Continuum Emission model
Accurate space-based NOx emission estimates with the flux divergence approach require fine-scale model information on local oxidation chemistry and profile shapes
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Ji Won Yoon, Seungyeon Lee, Ebony Lee, and Seon Ki Park
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2303–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to predict a mega Asian dust storm (ADS) over South Korea on 28–29 March 2021. We assessed combinations of five dust emission and four land surface schemes by analyzing meteorological and air quality variables. The best scheme combination reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) for particulate matter 10 (PM10) by up to 29.6 %, demonstrating the highest performance.
Jianyu Lin, Tie Dai, Lifang Sheng, Weihang Zhang, Shangfei Hai, and Yawen Kong
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2231–2248, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, 2025
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The effectiveness of this assimilation system and its sensitivity to the ensemble member size and length of the assimilation window are investigated. This study advances our understanding of the selection of basic parameters in the four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter assimilation system and the performance of ensemble simulation in a particulate-matter-polluted environment.
Jens Peter Karolus Wenceslaus Frankemölle, Johan Camps, Pieter De Meutter, and Johan Meyers
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1989–2003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, 2025
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To detect anomalous radioactivity in the environment, it is paramount that we understand the natural background level. In this work, we propose a statistical model to describe the most likely background level and the associated uncertainty in a network of dose rate detectors. We train, verify, and validate the model using real environmental data. Using the model, we show that we can correctly predict the background level in a subset of the detector network during a known
anomalous event.
Jean-François Grailet, Robin J. Hogan, Nicolas Ghilain, David Bolsée, Xavier Fettweis, and Marilaure Grégoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1965–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, 2025
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The MAR (Modèle Régional Atmosphérique) is a regional climate model used for weather forecasting and studying the climate over various regions. This paper presents an update of MAR thanks to which it can precisely decompose solar radiation, in particular in the UV (ultraviolet) and photosynthesis ranges, both being critical to human health and ecosystems. As a first application of this new capability, this paper presents a method for predicting UV indices with MAR.
Yi-Ning Shi, Jun Yang, Wei Han, Lujie Han, Jiajia Mao, Wanlin Kan, and Fuzhong Weng
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1947–1964, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, 2025
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Direct assimilation of observations from ground-based microwave radiometers (GMRs) holds significant potential for improving forecast accuracy. Radiative transfer models (RTMs) play a crucial role in direct data assimilation. In this study, we introduce a new RTM, the Advanced Radiative Transfer Modeling System – Ground-Based (ARMS-gb), designed to simulate brightness temperatures observed by GMRs along with their Jacobians. Several enhancements have been incorporated to achieve higher accuracy.
R. Phani Murali Krishna, Siddharth Kumar, A. Gopinathan Prajeesh, Peter Bechtold, Nils Wedi, Kumar Roy, Malay Ganai, B. Revanth Reddy, Snehlata Tirkey, Tanmoy Goswami, Radhika Kanase, Sahadat Sarkar, Medha Deshpande, and Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1879–1894, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, 2025
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The High-Resolution Global Forecast Model (HGFM) is an advanced iteration of the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) model. HGFM can produce forecasts at a spatial scale of ~6 km in tropics. It demonstrates improved accuracy in short- to medium-range weather prediction over the Indian region, with notable success in predicting extreme events. Further, the model will be entrusted to operational forecasting agencies after validation and testing.
Jenna Ritvanen, Seppo Pulkkinen, Dmitri Moisseev, and Daniele Nerini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1851–1878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, 2025
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Nowcasting models struggle with the rapid evolution of heavy rain, and common verification methods are unable to describe how accurately the models predict the growth and decay of heavy rain. We propose a framework to assess model performance. In the framework, convective cells are identified and tracked in the forecasts and observations, and the model skill is then evaluated by comparing differences between forecast and observed cells. We demonstrate the framework with four open-source models.
Andrew Geiss and Po-Lun Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1809–1827, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, 2025
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Particles in the Earth's atmosphere strongly impact the planet's energy budget, and atmosphere simulations require accurate representation of their interaction with light. This work introduces two approaches to represent light scattering by small particles. The first is a scattering simulator based on Mie theory implemented in Python. The second is a neural network emulator that is more accurate than existing methods and is fast enough to be used in climate and weather simulations.
Qin Wang, Bo Zeng, Gong Chen, and Yaoting Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1769–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates the performance of four planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in near-surface wind fields over the Sichuan Basin, China. Using 112 sensitivity experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and focusing on 28 wind events, it is found that wind direction was less sensitive to the PBL schemes. The quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE) scheme captured temporal variations best, while the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ) scheme had the least error in wind speed.
Tai-Long He, Nikhil Dadheech, Tammy M. Thompson, and Alexander J. Turner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1661–1671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, 2025
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It is computationally expensive to infer greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions using atmospheric observations. This is partly due to the detailed model used to represent atmospheric transport. We demonstrate how a machine learning (ML) model can be used to simulate high-resolution atmospheric transport. This type of ML model will help estimate GHG emissions using dense observations, which are becoming increasingly common with the proliferation of urban monitoring networks and geostationary satellites.
Wei Li, Beiming Tang, Patrick C. Campbell, Youhua Tang, Barry Baker, Zachary Moon, Daniel Tong, Jianping Huang, Kai Wang, Ivanka Stajner, and Raffaele Montuoro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1635–1660, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, 2025
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The study describes the updates of NOAA's current UFS-AQMv7 air quality forecast model by incorporating the latest scientific and structural changes in CMAQv5.4. An evaluation during the summer of 2023 shows that the updated model overall improves the simulation of MDA8 O3 by reducing the bias by 8%–12% in the contiguous US. PM2.5 predictions have mixed results due to wildfire, highlighting the need for future refinements.
Yanwei Zhu, Aitor Atencia, Markus Dabernig, and Yong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1545–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, 2025
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Most works have delved into convective weather nowcasting, and only a few works have discussed the nowcasting uncertainty for variables at the surface level. Hence, we proposed a method to estimate uncertainty. Generating appropriate noises associated with the characteristic of the error in analysis can simulate the uncertainty of nowcasting. This method can contribute to the estimation of near–surface analysis uncertainty in both nowcasting applications and ensemble nowcasting development.
Joël Thanwerdas, Antoine Berchet, Lionel Constantin, Aki Tsuruta, Michael Steiner, Friedemann Reum, Stephan Henne, and Dominik Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1505–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, 2025
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The Community Inversion Framework (CIF) brings together methods for estimating greenhouse gas fluxes from atmospheric observations. The initial ensemble method implemented in CIF was found to be incomplete and could hardly be compared to other ensemble methods employed in the inversion community. In this paper, we present and evaluate a new implementation of the ensemble mode, building upon the initial developments.
Astrid Kerkweg, Timo Kirfel, Duong H. Do, Sabine Griessbach, Patrick Jöckel, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1265–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, 2025
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Normally, the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) is linked to complete dynamic models to create chemical climate models. However, the modular concept of MESSy and the newly developed DWARF component presented here make it possible to create simplified models that contain only one or a few process descriptions. This is very useful for technical optimisation, such as porting to GPUs, and can be used to create less complex models, such as a chemical box model.
Edward C. Chan, Ilona J. Jäkel, Basit Khan, Martijn Schaap, Timothy M. Butler, Renate Forkel, and Sabine Banzhaf
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1119–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025, 2025
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An enhanced emission module has been developed for the PALM model system, improving flexibility and scalability of emission source representation across different sectors. A model for parametrized domestic emissions has also been included, for which an idealized model run is conducted for particulate matter (PM10). The results show that, in addition to individual sources and diurnal variations in energy consumption, vertical transport and urban topology play a role in concentration distribution.
Gregor Ehrensperger, Thorsten Simon, Georg J. Mayr, and Tobias Hell
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1141–1153, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1141-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1141-2025, 2025
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As lightning is a brief and localized event, it is not explicitly resolved in atmospheric models. Instead, expert-based auxiliary descriptions are used to assess it. This study explores how AI can improve our understanding of lightning without relying on traditional expert knowledge. We reveal that AI independently identified the key factors known to experts as essential for lightning in the Alps region. This shows how knowledge discovery could be sped up in areas with limited expert knowledge.
David Patoulias, Kalliopi Florou, and Spyros N. Pandis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1103–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1103-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1103-2025, 2025
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The effect of the assumed atmospheric nucleation mechanism on particle number concentrations and size distribution was investigated. Two quite different mechanisms involving sulfuric acid and ammonia or a biogenic organic vapor gave quite similar results which were consistent with measurements at 26 measurement stations across Europe. The number of larger particles that serve as cloud condensation nuclei showed little sensitivity to the assumed nucleation mechanism.
Tim Radke, Susanne Fuchs, Christian Wilms, Iuliia Polkova, and Marc Rautenhaus
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1017–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1017-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1017-2025, 2025
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In our study, we built upon previous work to investigate the patterns artificial intelligence (AI) learns to detect atmospheric features like tropical cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs). As primary objective, we adopt a method to explain the AI used and investigate the plausibility of learned patterns. We find that plausible patterns are learned for both TCs and ARs. Hence, the chosen method is very useful for gaining confidence in the AI-based detection of atmospheric features.
Stefan Noll, Carsten Schmidt, Patrick Hannawald, Wolfgang Kausch, and Stefan Kimeswenger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3512, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3512, 2025
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Non-thermal emission from chemical reactions in the Earth's middle und upper atmosphere strongly contributes to the brightness of the night sky below about 2.3 µm. The new Paranal Airglow Line and Continuum Emission model calculates the emission spectrum and its variability with an unprecedented accuracy. Relying on a large spectroscopic data set from astronomical spectrographs and theoretical molecular/atomic data, it is valuable for airglow research and astronomical observatories.
Felipe Cifuentes, Henk Eskes, Enrico Dammers, Charlotte Bryan, and Folkert Boersma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 621–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-621-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-621-2025, 2025
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We tested the capability of the flux divergence approach (FDA) to reproduce known NOx emissions using synthetic NO2 satellite column retrievals from high-resolution model simulations. The FDA accurately reproduced NOx emissions when column observations were limited to the boundary layer and when the variability of the NO2 lifetime, the NOx : NO2 ratio, and NO2 profile shapes were correctly modeled. This introduces strong model dependency, reducing the simplicity of the original FDA formulation.
Stefano Ubbiali, Christian Kühnlein, Christoph Schär, Linda Schlemmer, Thomas C. Schulthess, Michael Staneker, and Heini Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 529–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, 2025
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We explore a high-level programming model for porting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model codes to graphics processing units (GPUs). We present a Python rewrite with the domain-specific library GT4Py (GridTools for Python) of two renowned cloud microphysics schemes and the associated tangent-linear and adjoint algorithms. We find excellent portability, competitive GPU performance, robust execution on diverse computing architectures, and enhanced code maintainability and user productivity.
Pieter Rijsdijk, Henk Eskes, Arlene Dingemans, K. Folkert Boersma, Takashi Sekiya, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, and Sander Houweling
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 483–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-483-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-483-2025, 2025
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Clustering high-resolution satellite observations into superobservations improves model validation and data assimilation applications. In our paper, we derive quantitative uncertainties for satellite NO2 column observations based on knowledge of the retrievals, including a detailed analysis of spatial error correlations and representativity errors. The superobservations and uncertainty estimates are tested in a global chemical data assimilation system and are found to improve the forecasts.
Dario Di Santo, Cenlin He, Fei Chen, and Lorenzo Giovannini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 433–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-433-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-433-2025, 2025
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This paper presents the Machine Learning-based Automated Multi-method Parameter Sensitivity and Importance analysis Tool (ML-AMPSIT), a computationally efficient tool that uses machine learning algorithms for sensitivity analysis in atmospheric models. It is tested with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) land surface model to investigate sea breeze circulation sensitivity to vegetation-related parameters.
Robert Schoetter, Robin James Hogan, Cyril Caliot, and Valéry Masson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 405–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, 2025
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Radiation is relevant to the atmospheric impact on people and infrastructure in cities as it can influence the urban heat island, building energy consumption, and human thermal comfort. A new urban radiation model, assuming a more realistic form of urban morphology, is coupled to the urban climate model Town Energy Balance (TEB). The new TEB is evaluated with a reference radiation model for a variety of urban morphologies, and an improvement in the simulated radiative observables is found.
Zebediah Engberg, Roger Teoh, Tristan Abbott, Thomas Dean, Marc E. J. Stettler, and Marc L. Shapiro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 253–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025, 2025
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Contrails forming in some atmospheric conditions may persist and become strongly warming cirrus, while in other conditions may be neutral or cooling. We develop a contrail forecast model to predict contrail climate forcing for any arbitrary point in space and time and explore integration into flight planning and air traffic management. This approach enables contrail interventions to target high-probability high-climate-impact regions and reduce unintended consequences of contrail management.
Nils Eingrüber, Alina Domm, Wolfgang Korres, and Karl Schneider
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 141–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-141-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-141-2025, 2025
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Climate change adaptation measures like unsealings can reduce urban heat stress. As grass grid pavers have never been parameterized for microclimate model simulations with ENVI-met, a new parameterization was developed based on field measurements. To analyse the cooling potential, scenario analyses were performed for a densely developed area in Cologne. Statistically significant average cooling effects of up to −11.1 K were found for surface temperature and up to −2.9 K for 1 m air temperature.
Xuan Wang, Lei Bi, Hong Wang, Yaqiang Wang, Wei Han, Xueshun Shen, and Xiaoye Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 117–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-117-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-117-2025, 2025
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The Artificial-Intelligence-based Nonspherical Aerosol Optical Scheme (AI-NAOS) was developed to improve the estimation of the aerosol direct radiation effect and was coupled online with a chemical weather model. The AI-NAOS scheme considers black carbon as fractal aggregates and soil dust as super-spheroids, encapsulated with hygroscopic aerosols. Real-case simulations emphasize the necessity of accurately representing nonspherical and inhomogeneous aerosols in chemical weather models.
Lukas Pfitzenmaier, Pavlos Kollias, Nils Risse, Imke Schirmacher, Bernat Puigdomenech Treserras, and Katia Lamer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 101–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-101-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-101-2025, 2025
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The Python tool Orbital-Radar transfers suborbital radar data (ground-based, airborne, and forward-simulated numerical weather prediction model) into synthetic spaceborne cloud profiling radar data, mimicking platform-specific instrument characteristics, e.g. EarthCARE or CloudSat. The tool's novelty lies in simulating characteristic errors and instrument noise. Thus, existing data sets are transferred into synthetic observations and can be used for satellite calibration–validation studies.
Mark Buehner, Jean-Francois Caron, Ervig Lapalme, Alain Caya, Ping Du, Yves Rochon, Sergey Skachko, Maziar Bani Shahabadi, Sylvain Heilliette, Martin Deshaies-Jacques, Weiguang Chang, and Michael Sitwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1-2025, 2025
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The Modular and Integrated Data Assimilation System (MIDAS) software is described. The flexible design of MIDAS enables both deterministic and ensemble prediction applications for the atmosphere and several other Earth system components. It is currently used for all main operational weather prediction systems in Canada and also for sea ice and sea surface temperature analysis. The use of MIDAS for multiple Earth system components will facilitate future research on coupled data assimilation.
Alexander de Meij, Cornelis Cuvelier, Philippe Thunis, and Enrico Pisoni
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3690, 2025
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We assess the relevance and utility indicators developed within FAIRMODE by evaluating 9 CAMS models in calculated air pollutant values. For NO2, the results highlight difficulties at traffic stations. For PM2.5 and PM10 the bias and Winter-Summer gradients reveal issues. O3 evaluation shows that e.g. seasonal gradients are useful. Overall, the indicators provide valuable insights into model limitations, yet there is a need to reconsider the strictness of some indicators for certain pollutants.
Zichen Wu, Xueshun Chen, Zifa Wang, Huansheng Chen, Zhe Wang, Qing Mu, Lin Wu, Wending Wang, Xiao Tang, Jie Li, Ying Li, Qizhong Wu, Yang Wang, Zhiyin Zou, and Zijian Jiang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8885–8907, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8885-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8885-2024, 2024
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We developed a model to simulate polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from global to regional scales. The model can reproduce PAH distribution well. The concentration of BaP (indicator species for PAHs) could exceed the target values of 1 ng m-3 over some areas (e.g., in central Europe, India, and eastern China). The change in BaP is lower than that in PM2.5 from 2013 to 2018. China still faces significant potential health risks posed by BaP although the Action Plan has been implemented.
Marie Taufour, Jean-Pierre Pinty, Christelle Barthe, Benoît Vié, and Chien Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8773–8798, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8773-2024, 2024
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We have developed a complete two-moment version of the LIMA (Liquid Ice Multiple Aerosols) microphysics scheme. We have focused on collection processes, where the hydrometeor number transfer is often estimated in proportion to the mass transfer. The impact of these parameterizations on a convective system and the prospects for more realistic estimates of secondary parameters (reflectivity, hydrometeor size) are shown in a first test on an idealized case.
Yuya Takane, Yukihiro Kikegawa, Ko Nakajima, and Hiroyuki Kusaka
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8639–8664, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8639-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8639-2024, 2024
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A new parameterisation for dynamic anthropogenic heat and electricity consumption is described. The model reproduced the temporal variation in and spatial distributions of electricity consumption and temperature well in summer and winter. The partial air conditioning was the most critical factor, significantly affecting the value of anthropogenic heat emission.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Fredrik Jansson, Bart van Stratum, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, and Sander Houweling
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3721, 2024
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We introduce a new simulation platform based on the Dutch Large-Eddy Simulation (DALES) to simulate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their dispersion in the turbulent environments with hectometer resolution. This model incorporates both anthropogenic emission inventory and ecosystem exchanges. Simulation results for the main urban area in the Netherlands demonstrate a strong potential of DALES to enhance CO2 emission modeling, which is important for refining their reduction strategies.
Hongyi Li, Ting Yang, Lars Nerger, Dawei Zhang, Di Zhang, Guigang Tang, Haibo Wang, Yele Sun, Pingqing Fu, Hang Su, and Zifa Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8495–8519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8495-2024, 2024
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To accurately characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of particulate matter <2.5 µm chemical components, we developed the Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System with the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (NAQPMS-PDAF) v2.0 for chemical components with non-Gaussian and nonlinear properties. NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 has better computing efficiency, excels when used with a small ensemble size, and can significantly improve the simulation performance of chemical components.
T. Nash Skipper, Christian Hogrefe, Barron H. Henderson, Rohit Mathur, Kristen M. Foley, and Armistead G. Russell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8373–8397, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8373-2024, 2024
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Chemical transport model simulations are combined with ozone observations to estimate the bias in ozone attributable to US anthropogenic sources and individual sources of US background ozone: natural sources, non-US anthropogenic sources, and stratospheric ozone. Results indicate a positive bias correlated with US anthropogenic emissions during summer in the eastern US and a negative bias correlated with stratospheric ozone during spring.
Li Fang, Jianbing Jin, Arjo Segers, Ke Li, Ji Xia, Wei Han, Baojie Li, Hai Xiang Lin, Lei Zhu, Song Liu, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8267–8282, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8267-2024, 2024
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Model evaluations against ground observations are usually unfair. The former simulates mean status over coarse grids and the latter the surrounding atmosphere. To solve this, we proposed the new land-use-based representative (LUBR) operator that considers intra-grid variance. The LUBR operator is validated to provide insights that align with satellite measurements. The results highlight the importance of considering fine-scale urban–rural differences when comparing models and observation.
Mijie Pang, Jianbing Jin, Arjo Segers, Huiya Jiang, Wei Han, Batjargal Buyantogtokh, Ji Xia, Li Fang, Jiandong Li, Hai Xiang Lin, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8223–8242, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8223-2024, 2024
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The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) improves dust storm forecasts but faces challenges with position errors. The valid time shifting EnKF (VTS-EnKF) addresses this by adjusting for position errors, enhancing accuracy in forecasting dust storms, as proven in tests on 2021 events, even with smaller ensembles and time intervals.
Mike Bush, David L. A. Flack, Huw W. Lewis, Sylvia I. Bohnenstengel, Chris J. Short, Charmaine Franklin, Adrian P. Lock, Martin Best, Paul Field, Anne McCabe, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Segolene Berthou, Ian Boutle, Jennifer K. Brooke, Seb Cole, Shaun Cooper, Gareth Dow, John Edwards, Anke Finnenkoetter, Kalli Furtado, Kate Halladay, Kirsty Hanley, Margaret A. Hendry, Adrian Hill, Aravindakshan Jayakumar, Richard W. Jones, Humphrey Lean, Joshua C. K. Lee, Andy Malcolm, Marion Mittermaier, Saji Mohandas, Stuart Moore, Cyril Morcrette, Rachel North, Aurore Porson, Susan Rennie, Nigel Roberts, Belinda Roux, Claudio Sanchez, Chun-Hsu Su, Simon Tucker, Simon Vosper, David Walters, James Warner, Stuart Webster, Mark Weeks, Jonathan Wilkinson, Michael Whitall, Keith D. Williams, and Hugh Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-201, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-201, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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RAL configurations define settings for the Unified Model atmosphere and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator. The third version of the Regional Atmosphere and Land (RAL3) science configuration for kilometre and sub-km scale modelling represents a major advance compared to previous versions (RAL2) by delivering a common science definition for applications in tropical and mid-latitude regions. RAL3 has more realistic precipitation distributions and improved representation of clouds and visibility.
Peter Kalverla, Imme Benedict, Chris Weijenborg, and Ruud J. van der Ent
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3401, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3401, 2024
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We introduce a new version of WAM2layers, a computer program that tracks how the weather brings water from one place to another. It uses data from weather and climate models, whose resolution is steadily increasing. Processing the latest data became a challenge, and the updates presented here ensure that WAM2layers runs smoothly again. We also made it easier to use the program and to understand its source code. This makes it more transparent and reliable, and easier to maintain.
Prabhakar Namdev, Maithili Sharan, Piyush Srivastava, and Saroj Kanta Mishra
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8093–8114, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8093-2024, 2024
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Inadequate representation of surface–atmosphere interaction processes is a major source of uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models. Here, an effort has been made to improve the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.2 by introducing a unique theoretical framework under convective conditions. In addition, to enhance the potential applicability of the WRF modeling system, various commonly used similarity functions under convective conditions have also been installed.
Andrew Gettelman, Richard Forbes, Roger Marchand, Chih-Chieh Chen, and Mark Fielding
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8069–8092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8069-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8069-2024, 2024
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Supercooled liquid clouds (liquid clouds colder than 0°C) are common at higher latitudes (especially over the Southern Ocean) and are critical for constraining climate projections. We compare a single-column version of a weather model to observations with two different cloud schemes and find that both the dynamical environment and atmospheric aerosols are important for reproducing observations.
Yujuan Wang, Peng Zhang, Jie Li, Yaman Liu, Yanxu Zhang, Jiawei Li, and Zhiwei Han
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7995–8021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7995-2024, 2024
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This study updates the CESM's aerosol schemes, focusing on dust, marine aerosol emissions, and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) . Dust emission modifications make deflation areas more continuous, improving results in North America and the sub-Arctic. Humidity correction to sea-salt emissions has a minor effect. Introducing marine organic aerosol emissions, coupled with ocean biogeochemical processes, and adding aqueous reactions for SOA formation advance the CESM's aerosol modelling results.
Lucas A. McMichael, Michael J. Schmidt, Robert Wood, Peter N. Blossey, and Lekha Patel
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7867–7888, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7867-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7867-2024, 2024
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Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is a climate intervention technique to potentially cool the climate. Climate models used to gauge regional climate impacts associated with MCB often assume large areas of the ocean are uniformly perturbed. However, a more realistic representation of MCB application would require information about how an injected particle plume spreads. This work aims to develop such a plume-spreading model.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7915–7962, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, 2024
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Data-driven models are becoming a viable alternative to physics-based models for weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future. However, it is unclear whether they are as reliable as physics-based models when forecasting weather extremes. We evaluate their performance in forecasting near-surface cold, hot, and windy extremes globally. We find that data-driven models can compete with physics-based models and that the choice of the best model mainly depends on the region and type of extreme.
David C. Wong, Jeff Willison, Jonathan E. Pleim, Golam Sarwar, James Beidler, Russ Bullock, Jerold A. Herwehe, Rob Gilliam, Daiwen Kang, Christian Hogrefe, George Pouliot, and Hosein Foroutan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7855–7866, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7855-2024, 2024
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This work describe how we linked the meteorological Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) air quality model to form a coupled modelling system. This could be used to study air quality or climate and air quality interaction at a global scale. This new model scales well in high-performance computing environments and performs well with respect to ground surface networks in terms of ozone and PM2.5.
Markus Kunze, Christoph Zülicke, Tarique Adnan Siddiqui, Claudia Christine Stephan, Yosuke Yamazaki, Claudia Stolle, Sebastian Borchert, and Hauke Schmidt
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-191, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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We present the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) general circulation model with upper atmosphere extension with the physics package for numerical weather prediction (UA-ICON(NWP)). The parameters for the gravity wave parameterizations were optimized, and realistic modelling of the thermal and dynamic state of the mesopause regions was achieved. UA-ICON(NWP) now shows a realistic frequency of major sudden stratospheric warmings and well-represented solar tides in temperature.
Giulio Mandorli and Claudia J. Stubenrauch
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7795–7813, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7795-2024, 2024
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In recent years, several studies focused their attention on the disposition of convection. Lots of methods, called indices, have been developed to quantify the amount of convection clustering. These indices are evaluated in this study by defining criteria that must be satisfied and then evaluating the indices against these standards. None of the indices meet all criteria, with some only partially meeting them.
Wonbae Bang, Jacob Carlin, Kwonil Kim, Alexander Ryzhkov, Guosheng Liu, and Gyuwon Lee
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-179, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Microphysics model-based diagnosis such as the spectral bin model (SBM) recently has been attempted to diagnose winter precipitation types. In this study, the accuracy of SBM-based precipitation type diagnosis is compared with other traditional methods. SBM have relatively higher accuracy about snow and wetsnow events whereas lower accuracy about rain event. When microphysics scheme in the SBM was optimized for the corresponding region, accuracy about rain events was improved.
Kerry Anderson, Jack Chen, Peter Englefield, Debora Griffin, Paul A. Makar, and Dan Thompson
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7713–7749, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7713-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7713-2024, 2024
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The Global Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System (GFFEPS) is a model that predicts smoke and carbon emissions from wildland fires. The model calculates emissions from the ground up based on satellite-detected fires, modelled weather and fire characteristics. Unlike other global models, GFFEPS uses daily weather conditions to capture changing burning conditions on a day-to-day basis. GFFEPS produced lower carbon emissions due to the changing weather not captured by the other models.
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Short summary
We evaluate the wind farm parameterization (WFP) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a powerful tool to simulate wind farms and their meteorological impacts numerically. In our case study, the WFP simulations with fine vertical grid resolution are skilful in matching the observed winds and the actual power productions. Moreover, the WFP tends to underestimate power in windy conditions. We also illustrate that the modeled wind speed is a critical determinant to improve the WFP.
We evaluate the wind farm parameterization (WFP) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)...
