Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 10, issue 6
Articles | Volume 10, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2321-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2321-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 10, issue 6
Methods for assessment of models
 | 
23 Jun 2017
Methods for assessment of models |  | 23 Jun 2017

A Bayesian posterior predictive framework for weighting ensemble regional climate models

Yanan Fan, Roman Olson, and Jason P. Evans

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Latest update: 14 Dec 2024
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Short summary
We develop a novel and principled Bayesian statistical approach to computing model weights in climate change projection ensembles of regional climate models. The approach accounts for uncertainty in model bias, trend and internal variability. The weights are easily interpretable and the ensemble weighted models are shown to provide the correct coverage and improve upon existing methods in terms of providing narrower confidence intervals for climate change projections.
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