Articles | Volume 9, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2055-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2055-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
07 Jun 2016
Model evaluation paper |
| 07 Jun 2016
Randomly correcting model errors in the ARPEGE-Climate v6.1 component of CNRM-CM: applications for seasonal forecasts
CNRM-GAME, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France
Michel Déqué
CNRM-GAME, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France
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22 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Teleconnection-based evaluation of seasonal forecast quality D. Volpi et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05327-x
- Improving subseasonal forecast of precipitation in Europe by combining a stochastic weather generator with dynamical models M. Krouma et al. 10.1002/qj.4733
- Tropical rainfall predictions from multiple seasonal forecast systems A. Scaife et al. 10.1002/joc.5855
- Seasonal prediction of the boreal winter stratosphere A. Portal et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05787-9
- Projections of tropical cyclone rainfall over land with an Eulerian approach: Case study of three islands in the West Indies P. Cantet et al. 10.1002/joc.6760
- Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden M. Girons Lopez et al. 10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021
- Using Analysis Corrections to Address Model Error in Atmospheric Forecasts W. Crawford et al. 10.1175/MWR-D-20-0008.1
- Probabilistic Evaluation of the Multicategory Seasonal Precipitation Re-Forecast Y. Xu 10.3390/meteorology1030016
- Design and development of the SLAV-INMIO-CICE coupled model for seasonal prediction and climate research R. Fadeev et al. 10.1515/rnam-2018-0028
- Forecasting West African Heat Waves at Subseasonal and Seasonal Time Scales L. Batté et al. 10.1175/MWR-D-17-0211.1
- Flow dependence of wintertime subseasonal prediction skill over Europe C. Ardilouze et al. 10.5194/wcd-2-1033-2021
- Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts with CNRM-CM: a case study on the July 2015 West-European heat wave C. Ardilouze et al. 10.5194/asr-14-115-2017
- Skillful seasonal prediction of Afro-Asian summer monsoon precipitation with a merged machine learning and large ensemble approach Y. Huang et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00691-5
- Forecasting annual maximum water level for the Negro River at Manaus using dynamical seasonal predictions A. Chevuturi et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100342
- Downscaling and Evaluation of Seasonal Climate Data for the European Power Sector J. Ostermöller et al. 10.3390/atmos12030304
- The strong role of external forcing in seasonal forecasts of European summer temperature M. Patterson et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac9243
- Projected future changes in tropical cyclone-related wave climate in the North Atlantic A. Belmadani et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05664-5
- Impact of initializing the soil with a thermally and hydrologically balanced state on subseasonal predictability C. Ardilouze & A. Boone 10.1007/s00382-023-07024-x
- Deterministic and stochastic tendency adjustments derived from data assimilation and nudging W. Chapman & J. Berner 10.1002/qj.4652
- Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts D. Tommasi et al. 10.1016/j.pocean.2016.12.011
- A global observing‐system simulation experiment for the EPS–Sterna microwave constellation L. Rivoire et al. 10.1002/qj.4747
- Summer predictions of Arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts L. Batté et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05273-8
22 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Teleconnection-based evaluation of seasonal forecast quality D. Volpi et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05327-x
- Improving subseasonal forecast of precipitation in Europe by combining a stochastic weather generator with dynamical models M. Krouma et al. 10.1002/qj.4733
- Tropical rainfall predictions from multiple seasonal forecast systems A. Scaife et al. 10.1002/joc.5855
- Seasonal prediction of the boreal winter stratosphere A. Portal et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05787-9
- Projections of tropical cyclone rainfall over land with an Eulerian approach: Case study of three islands in the West Indies P. Cantet et al. 10.1002/joc.6760
- Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden M. Girons Lopez et al. 10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021
- Using Analysis Corrections to Address Model Error in Atmospheric Forecasts W. Crawford et al. 10.1175/MWR-D-20-0008.1
- Probabilistic Evaluation of the Multicategory Seasonal Precipitation Re-Forecast Y. Xu 10.3390/meteorology1030016
- Design and development of the SLAV-INMIO-CICE coupled model for seasonal prediction and climate research R. Fadeev et al. 10.1515/rnam-2018-0028
- Forecasting West African Heat Waves at Subseasonal and Seasonal Time Scales L. Batté et al. 10.1175/MWR-D-17-0211.1
- Flow dependence of wintertime subseasonal prediction skill over Europe C. Ardilouze et al. 10.5194/wcd-2-1033-2021
- Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts with CNRM-CM: a case study on the July 2015 West-European heat wave C. Ardilouze et al. 10.5194/asr-14-115-2017
- Skillful seasonal prediction of Afro-Asian summer monsoon precipitation with a merged machine learning and large ensemble approach Y. Huang et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00691-5
- Forecasting annual maximum water level for the Negro River at Manaus using dynamical seasonal predictions A. Chevuturi et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100342
- Downscaling and Evaluation of Seasonal Climate Data for the European Power Sector J. Ostermöller et al. 10.3390/atmos12030304
- The strong role of external forcing in seasonal forecasts of European summer temperature M. Patterson et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac9243
- Projected future changes in tropical cyclone-related wave climate in the North Atlantic A. Belmadani et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05664-5
- Impact of initializing the soil with a thermally and hydrologically balanced state on subseasonal predictability C. Ardilouze & A. Boone 10.1007/s00382-023-07024-x
- Deterministic and stochastic tendency adjustments derived from data assimilation and nudging W. Chapman & J. Berner 10.1002/qj.4652
- Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts D. Tommasi et al. 10.1016/j.pocean.2016.12.011
- A global observing‐system simulation experiment for the EPS–Sterna microwave constellation L. Rivoire et al. 10.1002/qj.4747
- Summer predictions of Arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts L. Batté et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05273-8
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 13 Mar 2025
Short summary
Taking into account model inadequacies is a key challenge in climate forecasting. As part of the FP7-SPECS project, we examine how stochastic perturbations of atmospheric model dynamics impact seasonal forecast quality of the CNRM coupled model. The method described in this paper helps derive model error statistics as well as improve key aspects of our forecasting system such as systematic errors over the North Atlantic mid-latitudes.
Taking into account model inadequacies is a key challenge in climate forecasting. As part of the...
