Articles | Volume 8, issue 7
Methods for assessment of models
07 Jul 2015
Methods for assessment of models |  | 07 Jul 2015

GASAKe: forecasting landslide activations by a genetic-algorithms-based hydrological model

O. G. Terranova, S. L. Gariano, P. Iaquinta, and G. G. R. Iovine


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Short summary
A model for predicting the timing of activation of rainfall-induced landslides is presented. Calibration against real events is based on genetic algorithms, and provides a family of optimal solutions (kernels) that maximize a fitness function. Accordingly, a set of mobility functions is obtained through convolution with rainfall. Once properly validated, the model allows one to estimate future landslide activations in the same study area, by employing either recorded or forecasted rainfall.