Reduction of predictive uncertainty in estimating irrigation water requirement through multi-model ensembles and ensemble averaging

Multsch, S.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Kirby, M.; Viney, N. R.; Frede, H.-G.; Breuer, L.

doi:10.5194/gmd-8-1233-2015

Articles | Volume 8, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1233-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1233-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 8, issue 4

Methods for assessment of models

|

29 Apr 2015

Methods for assessment of models |

| 29 Apr 2015

Reduction of predictive uncertainty in estimating irrigation water requirement through multi-model ensembles and ensemble averaging

S. Multsch, J.-F. Exbrayat, M. Kirby, N. R. Viney, H.-G. Frede, and L. Breuer

Viewed

Total article views: 4,852 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	BibTeX	EndNote
2,767	1,676	409	4,852	240	291

HTML: 2,767
PDF: 1,676
XML: 409
Total: 4,852
BibTeX: 240
EndNote: 291

Views and downloads (calculated since 10 Nov 2014)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Nov 2014	36	29	3	68
Dec 2014	20	17	0	37
Jan 2015	17	14	4	35
Feb 2015	25	7	0	32
Mar 2015	21	9	0	30
Apr 2015	41	15	4	60
May 2015	49	43	1	93
Jun 2015	34	13	2	49
Jul 2015	33	12	0	45
Aug 2015	14	6	1	21
Sep 2015	9	14	0	23
Oct 2015	20	33	0	53
Nov 2015	16	40	0	56
Dec 2015	6	44	1	51
Jan 2016	27	48	0	75
Feb 2016	13	34	1	48
Mar 2016	18	17	0	35
Apr 2016	5	8	1	14
May 2016	10	8	6	24
Jun 2016	10	4	3	17
Jul 2016	14	5	4	23
Aug 2016	15	6	3	24
Sep 2016	10	3	1	14
Oct 2016	14	8	0	22
Nov 2016	12	1	1	14
Dec 2016	5	7	0	12
Jan 2017	35	13	5	53
Feb 2017	14	7	4	25
Mar 2017	29	16	6	51
Apr 2017	31	14	8	53
May 2017	39	22	9	70
Jun 2017	33	13	7	53
Jul 2017	22	7	1	30
Aug 2017	5	7	0	12
Sep 2017	8	7	1	16
Oct 2017	8	5	0	13
Nov 2017	4	11	2	17
Dec 2017	8	3	0	11
Jan 2018	12	8	2	22
Feb 2018	26	8	3	37
Mar 2018	8	7	1	16
Apr 2018	8	5	1	14
May 2018	7	8	1	16
Jun 2018	6	10	0	16
Jul 2018	11	8	1	20
Aug 2018	11	5	0	16
Sep 2018	8	5	1	14
Oct 2018	19	12	4	35
Nov 2018	13	9	3	25
Dec 2018	9	8	1	18
Jan 2019	7	8	0	15
Feb 2019	5	4	3	12
Mar 2019	6	8	2	16
Apr 2019	9	9	6	24
May 2019	4	7	10	21
Jun 2019	8	13	11	32
Jul 2019	7	12	10	29
Aug 2019	21	14	5	40
Sep 2019	8	5	13	26
Oct 2019	9	13	7	29
Nov 2019	10	7	12	29
Dec 2019	8	9	9	26
Jan 2020	12	8	9	29
Feb 2020	16	15	5	36
Mar 2020	10	9	6	25
Apr 2020	10	7	2	19
May 2020	3	4	5	12
Jun 2020	18	11	5	34
Jul 2020	47	31	31	109
Aug 2020	10	10	11	31
Sep 2020	10	7	6	23
Oct 2020	12	9	4	25
Nov 2020	12	11	7	30
Dec 2020	22	8	10	40
Jan 2021	20	11	13	44
Feb 2021	6	5	9	20
Mar 2021	7	12	7	26
Apr 2021	4	4	8	16
May 2021	5	3	5	13
Jun 2021	3	5	0	8
Jul 2021	5	11	0	16
Aug 2021	3	5	0	8
Sep 2021	11	12	0	23
Oct 2021	11	33	0	44
Nov 2021	7	23	0	30
Dec 2021	9	6	1	16
Jan 2022	9	14	0	23
Feb 2022	11	9	1	21
Mar 2022	7	5	0	12
Apr 2022	30	5	1	36
May 2022	37	11	3	51
Jun 2022	34	3	1	38
Jul 2022	30	6	0	36
Aug 2022	39	4	0	43
Sep 2022	38	5	0	43
Oct 2022	45	5	2	52
Nov 2022	36	12	0	48
Dec 2022	32	3	0	35
Jan 2023	40	19	1	60
Feb 2023	39	5	0	44
Mar 2023	43	4	0	47
Apr 2023	36	5	1	42
May 2023	41	14	2	57
Jun 2023	40	5	1	46
Jul 2023	39	6	0	45
Aug 2023	40	8	1	49
Sep 2023	41	13	0	54
Oct 2023	79	16	1	96
Nov 2023	56	8	1	65
Dec 2023	43	9	3	55
Jan 2024	42	15	1	58
Feb 2024	35	10	0	45
Mar 2024	44	14	2	60
Apr 2024	54	13	4	71
May 2024	22	17	7	46
Jun 2024	10	25	1	36
Jul 2024	10	39	2	51
Aug 2024	21	18	1	40
Sep 2024	7	15	0	22
Oct 2024	14	10	1	25
Nov 2024	11	5	3	19
Dec 2024	7	10	1	18
Jan 2025	7	15	0	22
Feb 2025	23	8	1	32
Mar 2025	19	11	1	31
Apr 2025	9	17	1	27
May 2025	17	11	0	28
Jun 2025	31	14	2	47
Jul 2025	12	16	1	29
Aug 2025	24	17	1	42
Sep 2025	26	25	5	56
Oct 2025	28	16	3	47
Nov 2025	31	28	4	63
Dec 2025	20	15	5	40
Jan 2026	39	21	9	69
Feb 2026	23	13	2	38
Mar 2026	42	25	3	70
Apr 2026	11	7	0	18

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 10 Nov 2014)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Nov 2014	36	29	3	68
Dec 2014	20	17	0	37
Jan 2015	17	14	4	35
Feb 2015	25	7	0	32
Mar 2015	21	9	0	30
Apr 2015	41	15	4	60
May 2015	49	43	1	93
Jun 2015	34	13	2	49
Jul 2015	33	12	0	45
Aug 2015	14	6	1	21
Sep 2015	9	14	0	23
Oct 2015	20	33	0	53
Nov 2015	16	40	0	56
Dec 2015	6	44	1	51
Jan 2016	27	48	0	75
Feb 2016	13	34	1	48
Mar 2016	18	17	0	35
Apr 2016	5	8	1	14
May 2016	10	8	6	24
Jun 2016	10	4	3	17
Jul 2016	14	5	4	23
Aug 2016	15	6	3	24
Sep 2016	10	3	1	14
Oct 2016	14	8	0	22
Nov 2016	12	1	1	14
Dec 2016	5	7	0	12
Jan 2017	35	13	5	53
Feb 2017	14	7	4	25
Mar 2017	29	16	6	51
Apr 2017	31	14	8	53
May 2017	39	22	9	70
Jun 2017	33	13	7	53
Jul 2017	22	7	1	30
Aug 2017	5	7	0	12
Sep 2017	8	7	1	16
Oct 2017	8	5	0	13
Nov 2017	4	11	2	17
Dec 2017	8	3	0	11
Jan 2018	12	8	2	22
Feb 2018	26	8	3	37
Mar 2018	8	7	1	16
Apr 2018	8	5	1	14
May 2018	7	8	1	16
Jun 2018	6	10	0	16
Jul 2018	11	8	1	20
Aug 2018	11	5	0	16
Sep 2018	8	5	1	14
Oct 2018	19	12	4	35
Nov 2018	13	9	3	25
Dec 2018	9	8	1	18
Jan 2019	7	8	0	15
Feb 2019	5	4	3	12
Mar 2019	6	8	2	16
Apr 2019	9	9	6	24
May 2019	4	7	10	21
Jun 2019	8	13	11	32
Jul 2019	7	12	10	29
Aug 2019	21	14	5	40
Sep 2019	8	5	13	26
Oct 2019	9	13	7	29
Nov 2019	10	7	12	29
Dec 2019	8	9	9	26
Jan 2020	12	8	9	29
Feb 2020	16	15	5	36
Mar 2020	10	9	6	25
Apr 2020	10	7	2	19
May 2020	3	4	5	12
Jun 2020	18	11	5	34
Jul 2020	47	31	31	109
Aug 2020	10	10	11	31
Sep 2020	10	7	6	23
Oct 2020	12	9	4	25
Nov 2020	12	11	7	30
Dec 2020	22	8	10	40
Jan 2021	20	11	13	44
Feb 2021	6	5	9	20
Mar 2021	7	12	7	26
Apr 2021	4	4	8	16
May 2021	5	3	5	13
Jun 2021	3	5	0	8
Jul 2021	5	11	0	16
Aug 2021	3	5	0	8
Sep 2021	11	12	0	23
Oct 2021	11	33	0	44
Nov 2021	7	23	0	30
Dec 2021	9	6	1	16
Jan 2022	9	14	0	23
Feb 2022	11	9	1	21
Mar 2022	7	5	0	12
Apr 2022	30	5	1	36
May 2022	37	11	3	51
Jun 2022	34	3	1	38
Jul 2022	30	6	0	36
Aug 2022	39	4	0	43
Sep 2022	38	5	0	43
Oct 2022	45	5	2	52
Nov 2022	36	12	0	48
Dec 2022	32	3	0	35
Jan 2023	40	19	1	60
Feb 2023	39	5	0	44
Mar 2023	43	4	0	47
Apr 2023	36	5	1	42
May 2023	41	14	2	57
Jun 2023	40	5	1	46
Jul 2023	39	6	0	45
Aug 2023	40	8	1	49
Sep 2023	41	13	0	54
Oct 2023	79	16	1	96
Nov 2023	56	8	1	65
Dec 2023	43	9	3	55
Jan 2024	42	15	1	58
Feb 2024	35	10	0	45
Mar 2024	44	14	2	60
Apr 2024	54	13	4	71
May 2024	22	17	7	46
Jun 2024	10	25	1	36
Jul 2024	10	39	2	51
Aug 2024	21	18	1	40
Sep 2024	7	15	0	22
Oct 2024	14	10	1	25
Nov 2024	11	5	3	19
Dec 2024	7	10	1	18
Jan 2025	7	15	0	22
Feb 2025	23	8	1	32
Mar 2025	19	11	1	31
Apr 2025	9	17	1	27
May 2025	17	11	0	28
Jun 2025	31	14	2	47
Jul 2025	12	16	1	29
Aug 2025	24	17	1	42
Sep 2025	26	25	5	56
Oct 2025	28	16	3	47
Nov 2025	31	28	4	63
Dec 2025	20	15	5	40
Jan 2026	39	21	9	69
Feb 2026	23	13	2	38
Mar 2026	42	25	3	70
Apr 2026	11	7	0	18

Latest update: 21 Apr 2026

Short summary

Irrigation agriculture is required to sustain yields that allow feeding the world population. A robust assessment of irrigation requirement (IRR) relies on a sound quantification of evapotranspiration (ET). We prepared a multi-model ensemble considering several ET methods and investigate uncertainties in simulating IRR. More generally, we provide an example of the value of investigating the uncertainty in models that may be used to inform policy-making and to elaborate best management practices.