Articles | Volume 7, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2683-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2683-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
13 Nov 2014
Development and technical paper |
| 13 Nov 2014
Response of microbial decomposition to spin-up explains CMIP5 soil carbon range until 2100
J.-F. Exbrayat
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of GeoSciences and National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science and Climate Change Research Centre University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
A. J. Pitman
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science and Climate Change Research Centre University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
G. Abramowitz
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science and Climate Change Research Centre University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
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29 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Effects of model structural uncertainty on carbon cycle projections: biological nitrogen fixation as a case study W. Wieder et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044016
- Vegetation Functional Properties Determine Uncertainty of Simulated Ecosystem Productivity: A Traceability Analysis in the East Asian Monsoon Region E. Cui et al. 10.1029/2018GB005909
- Assimilation of repeated woody biomass observations constrains decadal ecosystem carbon cycle uncertainty in aggrading forests T. Smallman et al. 10.1002/2016JG003520
- Model structures amplify uncertainty in predicted soil carbon responses to climate change Z. Shi et al. 10.1038/s41467-018-04526-9
- Temperature Increases Soil Respiration Across Ecosystem Types and Soil Development, But Soil Properties Determine the Magnitude of This Effect M. Dacal et al. 10.1007/s10021-021-00648-2
- Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in Global Carbon Cycle Predictions: Lessons and Perspectives From 15 Years of Data Assimilation Studies With the ORCHIDEE Terrestrial Biosphere Model N. MacBean et al. 10.1029/2021GB007177
- Global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration modeled using a global database S. Hashimoto et al. 10.5194/bg-12-4121-2015
- Explicitly representing soil microbial processes in Earth system models W. Wieder et al. 10.1002/2015GB005188
- Toward “optimal” integration of terrestrial biosphere models C. Schwalm et al. 10.1002/2015GL064002
- Convergent modelling of past soil organic carbon stocks but divergent projections Z. Luo et al. 10.5194/bg-12-4373-2015
- Understanding the Land Carbon Cycle with Space Data: Current Status and Prospects J. Exbrayat et al. 10.1007/s10712-019-09506-2
- Vegetation restoration enhances soil organic carbon accumulation in Southwest China’s karst region: The role of aggregation, calcium, and microbes J. Lan et al. 10.1016/j.catena.2025.109184
- Underestimated ecosystem carbon turnover time and sequestration under the steady state assumption: A perspective from long‐term data assimilation R. Ge et al. 10.1111/gcb.14547
- Cross-biome patterns in soil microbial respiration predictable from evolutionary theory on thermal adaptation M. Bradford et al. 10.1038/s41559-018-0771-4
- Evaluation of terrestrial pan-Arctic carbon cycling using a data-assimilation system E. López-Blanco et al. 10.5194/esd-10-233-2019
- The Impact of Human‐Induced Climate Change on Regional Drought in the Horn of Africa T. Marthews et al. 10.1029/2018JD030085
- Sources of Uncertainty in Modeled Land Carbon Storage within and across Three MIPs: Diagnosis with Three New Techniques S. Zhou et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0357.1
- Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties J. Exbrayat et al. 10.5194/esd-9-153-2018
- Decomposing uncertainties in the future terrestrial carbon budget associated with emission scenarios, climate projections, and ecosystem simulations using the ISI-MIP results K. Nishina et al. 10.5194/esd-6-435-2015
- Timescale dependence of airborne fraction and underlying climate–carbon-cycle feedbacks for weak perturbations in CMIP5 models G. Torres Mendonça et al. 10.5194/bg-21-1923-2024
- Disentangling residence time and temperature sensitivity of microbial decomposition in a global soil carbon model J. Exbrayat et al. 10.5194/bg-11-6999-2014
- Uncertainty Quantification of Extratropical Forest Biomass in CMIP5 Models over the Northern Hemisphere C. Yang et al. 10.1038/s41598-018-29227-7
- Data-mining analysis of the global distribution of soil carbon in observational databases and Earth system models S. Hashimoto et al. 10.5194/gmd-10-1321-2017
- Assimilation of multiple datasets results in large differences in regional- to global-scale NEE and GPP budgets simulated by a terrestrial biosphere model C. Bacour et al. 10.5194/bg-20-1089-2023
- Constraining estimates of global soil respiration by quantifying sources of variability J. Jian et al. 10.1111/gcb.14301
- Evaluation and uncertainty analysis of regional-scale CLM4.5 net carbon flux estimates H. Post et al. 10.5194/bg-15-187-2018
- Divergence in land surface modeling: linking spread to structure C. Schwalm et al. 10.1088/2515-7620/ab4a8a
- Climate Sensitivities of Carbon Turnover Times in Soil and Vegetation: Understanding Their Effects on Forest Carbon Sequestration R. Ge et al. 10.1029/2020JG005880
- Coupling the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM v. 2.0) to Environment and Climate Change Canada's greenhouse gas forecast model (v.107-glb) B. Badawy et al. 10.5194/gmd-11-631-2018
4 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Understanding the dominant controls on litter decomposition M. Bradford et al. 10.1111/1365-2745.12507
- Managing uncertainty in soil carbon feedbacks to climate change M. Bradford et al. 10.1038/nclimate3071
- Global patterns and controls of soil organic carbon dynamics as simulated by multiple terrestrial biosphere models: Current status and future directions H. Tian et al. 10.1002/2014GB005021
- Testing association between soil bacterial diversity and soil carbon storage on the Loess Plateau Y. Yang et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.081
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Latest update: 12 Jun 2025
Short summary
Pre-industrial soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks vary 6-fold in models used in the 5th IPCC Assessment Report. This paper shows that this range is largely determined by model-specific responses of microbal decomposition during the equilibration procedure. As SOC stocks are maintained through the present and to 2100 almost unchanged, we propose that current SOC observations could be used to constrain this equilibration procedure and thereby reduce the uncertainty in climate change projections.
Pre-industrial soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks vary 6-fold in models used in the 5th IPCC...
