ESP v1.0: methodology for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States

Abstract. This article presents a methodology for creating anthropogenic emission inventories that can be used to simulate future regional air quality. The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) methodology focuses on energy production and use, the principal sources of many air pollutants. Emission growth factors for energy system categories are calculated using the MARKAL energy system model. Growth factors for non-energy sectors are based on economic and population projections. These factors are used to grow a 2005 emissions inventory through 2050. The approach is demonstrated for two emission scenarios for the United States. Scenario 1 extends current air regulations through 2050, while Scenario 2 adds a hypothetical CO₂ mitigation policy. Although both scenarios show significant reductions in air pollutant emissions through time, these reductions are more pronounced in Scenario 2, where the CO₂ policy results in the adoption of technologies with lower emissions of both CO₂ and traditional air pollutants. The methodology is expected to play an important role within an integrated modeling framework that supports the US EPA's investigations of linkages among emission drivers, climate and air quality.