Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 19, issue 17
Articles | Volume 19, issue 17
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8167-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8167-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 19, issue 17
Model evaluation paper
 | 
03 Sep 2026
Model evaluation paper |  | 03 Sep 2026

A barycenter-based approach for the multi-model ensembling of subseasonal forecasts

Camille Le Coz, Alexis Tantet, Rémi Flamary, and Riwal Plougonven

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Short summary
We explore an alternative framework for constructing multi-model ensembles by formulating ensemble combination as a barycenter problem. We compare the L2 barycenter (equivalent to pooling) with the Wasserstein barycenter (more precisely its Gaussian approximation). Both have the same ensemble mean but differ in how they represent forecasts uncertainty. In terms of Continuous Ranked Probability Score, the Wasserstein barycenter outperforms more often while performing similarly on average.
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