Articles | Volume 19, issue 17
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8081-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8081-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
AD-MERGE 2.0: an integrated assessment of the Nexus among energy transitions, climate impacts, and adaptation responses
Kamyar Amirmoeini
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
GERAD and Department of Decision Sciences, HEC Montréal, Montreal, H3T 2A7, QC, Canada
GERAD and Department of Decision Sciences, HEC Montréal, Montreal, H3T 2A7, QC, Canada
Kelly de Bruin
ESRI, Dublin, D02 K138, Ireland
Kirsten Everett
ESRI, Dublin, D02 K138, Ireland
Hamed Kouchaki-Penchah
GERAD and Department of Decision Sciences, HEC Montréal, Montreal, H3T 2A7, QC, Canada
CanmetENERGY, Natural Resources Canada, 1615 Lionel-Boulet Boulevard, Varennes, QC, J3X 1S6, Canada
Pierre-Olivier Pineau
Chair in Energy Sector Management and Department of Decision Sciences, HEC Montréal, Montreal, H3T 2A7, QC, Canada
Cited articles
Aaheim, A., Amundsen, H., Dokken, T., and Wei, T.: Impacts and adaptation to climate change in European economies, Global Environ. Change, 22, 959–968, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.06.005, 2012. a, b
Aaheim, H. A., Orlov, A., Wei, T., and Glomsrød, S.: GRACE model and applications, report no. 2018:01, CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway, https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2480843 (last access: 12 May 2025), 2018. a
Agrawala, S., Bosello, F., Carraro, C., De Bruin, K., De Cian, E., Dellink, R., and Lanzi, E.: Plan or react? Analysis of adaptation costs and benefits using integrated assessment models, Clim. Change Econ., 2, 175–208, https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010007811000267, 2011a. a, b
Agrawala, S., Bosello, F., Carraro, C., De Cian, E., and Lanzi, E.: Adapting to climate change: costs, benefits, and modelling approaches, Int. Rev. Environ. Resour. Econ., 5, 245–284, https://doi.org/10.1561/101.00000043, 2011b. a
Agrawala, S., Matus Kramer, A., Prudent-Richard, G., Sainsbury, M., and Schreitter, V.: Incorporating climate change impacts and adaptation in environmental impact assessments: opportunities and challenges, Clim. Dev., 4, 26–39, https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2011.628791, 2012. a
Amirmoeini, K., Bahn, O., de Bruin, K., Everett, K., Kouchaki-Penchah, H., and Pineau, P.-O.: AD-MERGE 2.0 Integrated Assessment Model, Zenodo [code and data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20044090, 2026 (code also available at: https://github.com/G-IAM/AD-MERGE-2.0, last access: 5 May 2026). a, b
Anthoff, D. and Tol, R. S.: The climate framework for uncertainty, negotiation and distribution (FUND): Technical description, version 3.6, FUND Doc, https://www.fund-model.org/files/documentation/Fund-3-7-Scientific-Documentation.pdf (last access: 12 May 2025), 2014. a
Aryanpur, V., O'Gallachoir, B., Dai, H., Chen, W., and Glynn, J.: A review of spatial resolution and regionalisation in national-scale energy systems optimisation models, Energ. Strat. Rev., 37, 100702, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2021.100702, 2021. a, b
Awais, M., Vinca, A., Byers, E., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Boere, E., Burek, P., Poblete Cazenave, M., Kishimoto, P. N., Mastrucci, A., Satoh, Y., Palazzo, A., McPherson, M., Riahi, K., and Krey, V.: MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM nexus module: integrating water sector and climate impacts, Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2447–2469, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2447-2024, 2024. a
Bahn, O. and Kypreos, S.: Incorporating different endogenous learning formulations in MERGE, Int. J. Global Energ. Issu., 19, 333–358, https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGEI.2003.003199, 2003. a
Bahn, O., Edwards, N. R., Knutti, R., and Stocker, T. F.: Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system, Energy Policy, 39, 334–348, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.002, 2011. a
Bahn, O., Chesney, M., and Gheyssens, J.: The effect of proactive adaptation on green investment, Environ. Sci. Policy, 18, 9–24, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2011.10.010, 2012. a
Bahn, O., Chesney, M., Gheyssens, J., Knutti, R., and Pana, A. C.: Is there room for geoengineering in the optimal climate policy mix?, Environ. Sci. Policy, 48, 67–76, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.12.014, 2015. a
Bastien-Olvera, B. A. and Moore, F. C.: Use and non-use value of nature and the social cost of carbon, Nat. Sustain., 4, 101–108, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-00615-0, 2021. a
Baumstark, L., Bauer, N., Benke, F., Bertram, C., Bi, S., Gong, C. C., Dietrich, J. P., Dirnaichner, A., Giannousakis, A., Hilaire, J., Klein, D., Koch, J., Leimbach, M., Levesque, A., Madeddu, S., Malik, A., Merfort, A., Merfort, L., Odenweller, A., Pehl, M., Pietzcker, R. C., Piontek, F., Rauner, S., Rodrigues, R., Rottoli, M., Schreyer, F., Schultes, A., Soergel, B., Soergel, D., Strefler, J., Ueckerdt, F., Kriegler, E., and Luderer, G.: REMIND2.1: transformation and innovation dynamics of the energy-economic system within climate and sustainability limits, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6571–6603, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6571-2021, 2021. a
BGR: Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe: BGR Energy Data 2021 – German and Global Energy Supplies, https://doi.org/10.25928/es-2023-tab-en, 2022. a
Bianco, V., Driha, O. M., and Sevilla-Jiménez, M.: Effects of renewables deployment in the Spanish electricity generation sector, Util. Policy, 56, 72–81, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jup.2018.11.001, 2019. a
Bosello, F., Dasgupta, S., Parrado, R., Standardi, G., and van der Wijst, K.-I.: Revisiting the Concept of Damage Functions, Tech. rep., COACCH Project, deliverable D4.3, Macroeconomic Assessment of Policy Effectiveness, H2020 COACCH Project, Deliverable D4.3, https://www.coacch.eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/D4.3_revMAR2022.pdf (last access: 12 May 2025), 2021. a
Bouaboula, H., Chaouki, J., Belmabkhout, Y., and Zaabout, A.: Comparative review of Direct air capture technologies: From technical, commercial, economic, and environmental aspects, Chem. Eng. J., 484, 149411, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cej.2024.149411, 2024. a, b, c
Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M., and Miguel, E.: Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production, Nature, 527, 235–239, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15725, 2015. a
Burke, M., Alampay Davis, W. M., and Diffenbaugh, N. S.: Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets, Nature, 557, 549–553, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0071-9, 2018. a
Byers, E., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Schaeffer, R., Kikstra, J., Lamboll, R., Nicholls, Z., Sandstad, M., Smith, C., van der Wijst, K., Al-Khourdajie, A., Lecocq, F., Portugal-Pereira, J., Saheb, Y., Stromann, A., Winkler, H., Auer, C., Brutschin, E., Gidden, M., Hackstock, P., Harmsen, M., Huppmann, D., Kolp, P., Lepault, C., Lewis, J., Marangoni, G., Müller-Casseres, E., Skeie, R., Werning, M., Calvin, K., Forster, P., Guivarch, C., Hasegawa, T., Meinshausen, M., Peters, G., Rogelj, J., Samset, B., Steinberger, J., Tavoni, M., and van Vuuren, D.: AR6 Scenarios Database, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5886911, 2022. a, b
Calvin, K., Patel, P., Clarke, L., Asrar, G., Bond-Lamberty, B., Cui, R. Y., Di Vittorio, A., Dorheim, K., Edmonds, J., Hartin, C., Hejazi, M., Horowitz, R., Iyer, G., Kyle, P., Kim, S., Link, R., McJeon, H., Smith, S. J., Snyder, A., Waldhoff, S., and Wise, M.: GCAM v5. 1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 677–698, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019, 2019. a
Carrara, S. and Marangoni, G.: Including system integration of variable renewable energies in a constant elasticity of substitution framework: the case of the WITCH model, Energy Econ., 64, 612–626, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.08.017, 2017. a, b, c
Carton, W., Hougaard, I.-M., Markusson, N., and Lund, J. F.: Is carbon removal delaying emission reductions?, Wiley Interdisciplin. Rev.: Clim. Change, 14, e826, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.826, 2023. a
CIA: Field Listing – Coasline from The World Factbook, https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/coastline/ (last access: 17 June 2024), 2024. a
Cuaresma, J. C.: Income projections for climate change research: A framework based on human capital dynamics, Global Environ. Change, 42, 226–236, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.02.012, 2017. a, b
de Bruin, K., Dellink, R., and Agrawala, S.: Economic aspects of adaptation to climate change: integrated assessment modelling of adaptation costs and benefits, OECD Environment Working Papers, No. 6, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/225282538105, 2009a. a, b, c, d
de Bruin, K., Everett, K., and Cassidy, D.: Developing data-driven damage and adaptation functions for Integrated Assessment Models: An application in AD-MERGE 2.0, ESRI Working Paper 838, ESRI, https://www.esri.ie/publications/developing-data-driven-damage-and-adaptation-functions-for-integrated -assessment (last access: 13 July 2026), 2026. a, b, c, d, e
de Bruin, K. C., Dellink, R. B., and Tol, R. S.: AD-DICE: an implementation of adaptation in the DICE model, Climatic Change, 95, 63–81, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9535-5, 2009b. a
Diaz, D. B.: Estimating global damages from sea level rise with the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM), Climatic Change, 137, 143–156, 2016. a
DOE: DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program Record 19009: Hydrogen Production Cost from PEM Electrolysis, Tech. rep., https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/docs/hydrogenprogramlibraries/pdfs/19009_h2_production_cost_pem_electrolysis_2019.pdf (last access: 4 April 2024), 2020. a
Doelman, J. C., Stehfest, E., Tabeau, A., van Meijl, H., Lassaletta, L., Gernaat, D. E., Hermans, K., Harmsen, M., Daioglou, V., Biemans, H., van der Sluis, S., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Exploring SSP land-use dynamics using the IMAGE model: Regional and gridded scenarios of land-use change and land-based climate change mitigation, Global Environ. Change, 48, 119–135, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.11.014, 2018. a
Edelenbosch, O. Y., Hof, A. F., van den Berg, M., de Boer, H. S., Chen, H.-H., Daioglou, V., Dekker, M. M., Doelman, J. C., den Elzen, M. G. J., Harmsen, M., Mikropoulos, S., van Sluisveld, M. A. E., Stehfest, E., Tagomori, I. S., van Zeist, W.-J., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Reducing sectoral hard to abate emissions to limit reliance of Carbon Dioxide Removal in 1.5 °C scenarios, Nat. Clim. Change, 14, 715–722, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02025-y, 2024. a
Emmerling, J., Drouet, L., Reis, L. A., Bevione, M., Berger, L., Bosetti, V., Carrara, S., De Cian, E., D'Aertrycke, G. D. M., Longden, T., Malpede, M., Marangoni, G., Sferra, F., Tavoni, M., Witajewski-Baltvilks, J., and Havlik, P.: The WITCH 2016 model-documentation and implementation of the shared socioeconomic pathways, https://hdl.handle.net/10419/142316 (last access: 12 May 2025), 2016. a, b
Eurek, K., Sullivan, P., Gleason, M., Hettinger, D., Heimiller, D., and Lopez, A.: An improved global wind resource estimate for integrated assessment models, Energy Econ., 64, 552–567, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.11.015, 2017. a
Filatova, T., Taberna, A., Chatzivasileiadis, T., and Cortés Arbués, I.: Private sector investments in climate change adaptation, Nat. Clim. Change, 15, 1249–1256, 2025. a
Forster, P., Storelvmo, T., Armour, K., Collins, W., Dufresne, J.-L., Frame, D., Lunt, D., Mauritsen, T., Palmer, M., Watanabe, M., Wild, M., and Zhang, H.: The Earth's energy budget, climate feedbacks, and climate sensitivity, in: Climate Chang 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 923–1054, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.009, 2021. a, b
Fuhrman, J., McJeon, H., Doney, S. C., Shobe, W., and Clarens, A. F.: From zero to hero?: why integrated assessment modeling of negative emissions technologies is hard and how we can do better, Front. Clim., 1, 11, https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2019.00011, 2019. a
Fuhrman, J., Clarens, A., Calvin, K., Doney, S. C., Edmonds, J. A., O'Rourke, P., Patel, P., Pradhan, S., Shobe, W., and McJeon, H.: The role of direct air capture and negative emissions technologies in the shared socioeconomic pathways towards +1.5 °C and +2 °C futures, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 114012, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2db0, 2021. a
Fujimori, S., Masui, T., and Matsuoka, Y.: AIM/CGE V2.0 model formula, Post-2020 climate action: Global and Asian perspectives, edited by: Fujimori, S., Kainuma, M., and Masui, T., Springer, Singapore, 201–303, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-3869-3_12, 2017. a
Füssel, H.-M.: Modeling impacts and adaptation in global IAMs, Wiley Interdisciplin. Rev.: Clim. Change, 1, 288–303, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.40, 2010. a
Gazzotti, P., Emmerling, J., Marangoni, G., Castelletti, A., v. d. Wijst, K.-I., Hof, A., and Tavoni, M.: Persistent inequality in economically optimal climate policies, Nat. Commun., 12, 3421, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23613-y, 2021. a
Ghaboulian Zare, S., Amirmoeini, K., Bahn, O., Baker, R. C., Mousseau, N., Neshat, N., Trépanier, M., and Wang, Q.: The role of hydrogen in integrated assessment models: A review of recent developments, Renew. Sustain. Energ. Rev., 215, 115544, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2025.115544, 2025. a
Gong, C. C., Ueckerdt, F., Pietzcker, R., Odenweller, A., Schill, W.-P., Kittel, M., and Luderer, G.: Bidirectional coupling of the long-term integrated assessment model REgional Model of INvestments and Development (REMIND) v3.0.0 with the hourly power sector model Dispatch and Investment Evaluation Tool with Endogenous Renewables (DIETER) v1.0.2, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4977–5033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4977-2023, 2023. a, b, c, d
Gorman, W., Mills, A., and Wiser, R.: Improving estimates of transmission capital costs for utility-scale wind and solar projects to inform renewable energy policy, Energy Policy, 135, 110994, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110994, 2019. a
Grant, N., Gambhir, A., Mittal, S., Greig, C., and Köberle, A. C.: Enhancing the realism of decarbonisation scenarios with practicable regional constraints on CO2 storage capacity, Int. J. Greenhouse Gas Control, 120, 103766, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2022.103766, 2022. a
Hamilton, J. M., Maddison, D. J., and Tol, R. S.: Effects of climate change on international tourism, Clim. Res., 29, 245–254, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr029245, 2005. a
Hendriks, C., Graus, W., and van Bergen, F.: Global carbon dioxide storage potential and costs, Ecofys, Utrecht, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260095614 (last access: 30 September 2024), 2004. a
Howard, P. H. and Sterner, T.: Few and not so far between: a meta-analysis of climate damage estimates, Environ. Resour. Econ., 68, 197–225, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-017-0166-z, 2017. a, b
Hydrogen Council: Global Hydrogen Flows: Hydrogen Trade as a Key Enabler for Efficient Decarbonization, Tech. rep., https://hydrogencouncil.com/en/global-hydrogen-flows/ (last access: 4 April 2024), 2022. a
IAMC: The common integrated assessment model (IAM) documentation, https://www.iamcdocumentation.eu/index.php/IAMC_wiki (last access: 12 December 2024), 2024. a
IEA: World Energy Outlook 2017, IEA, Paris, https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2017 (last access: 10 November 2023), 2017. a
IEA: Global Hydrogen Review 2023, Tech. Rep., International Energy Agency, Paris, https://www.iea.org/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2023 (last access: 14 April 2024), 2023a. a
IEA: Energy Statistics Data Browser, https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/energy-statistics-data-browser (last access: 12 April 2024), 2023c. a
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation: Global Burden of Disease Results, IHME, University of Washington, Seattle, https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/ (last access: 13 June 2024), 2024. a
International Energy Agency: Global Hydrogen Review 2022, Tech. rep., International Energy Agency, Paris, https://www.iea.org/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2022 (last access: 1 September 2024), 2022. a
International Labour Organization: ILOSTAT Data Portal, https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/ (last access: 19 March 2024), 2024. a
IPCC: Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change, in: Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, ISBN 978-0-521-56854-8, 1996. a
IPCC: Annex I: Glossary, edited by: Matthews, J. B. R., in: Global Warming of 1.5 °C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D., Skea, J., Shukla, P. R., Pirani, A., Moufouma-Okia, W., Péan, C., Pidcock, R., Connors, S., Matthews, J. B. R., Chen, Y., Zhou, X., Gomis, M. I., Lonnoy, E., Maycock, T., Tignor, M., and Waterfield, T., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 541–562, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157940.008., 2018. a
IPCC: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, in: Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157926, 2022a. a, b, c, d, e, f
IPCC: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, in: Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844, 2022b. a
IPCC: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, in: Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647, 2023. a
IRENA: Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation: The Hydrogen Factor, Report, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, https://www.irena.org//-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2022/Jan/IRENA_Geopolitics_Hydrogen_2022.pdf (last access: 12 April 2024), 2022. a
IRENA: Renewable power generation costs in 2022, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2023/Aug/IRENA_Renewable_power_generation_costs_in_2022.pdf (last access: 5 April 2024), 2023. a
Johnson, N., Strubegger, M., McPherson, M., Parkinson, S. C., Krey, V., and Sullivan, P.: A reduced-form approach for representing the impacts of wind and solar PV deployment on the structure and operation of the electricity system, Energy Econ., 64, 651–664, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.07.010, 2017. a
Joos, M. and Staffell, I.: Short-term integration costs of variable renewable energy: Wind curtailment and balancing in Britain and Germany, Renew. Sustain. Energ. Rev., 86, 45–65, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.01.009, 2018. a
KC, S., Moradhvaj, Potancokova, M., Adhikari, S., Yildiz, D., Mamolo, M., Sobotka, T., Zeman, K., Abel, G., Lutz, W., and Goujon, A.: Wittgenstein Center (WIC) Population and Human Capital Projections – 2023, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10618931, 2024. a, b
Keppo, I., Butnar, I., Bauer, N., Caspani, M., Edelenbosch, O., Emmerling, J., Fragkos, P., Guivarch, C., Harmsen, M., Lefèvre, J., Le Gallic, T., Leimbach, M., McDowall, W., Mercure, J.-F., Schaeffer, R., Trutnevyte, E., and Wagner, F.: Exploring the possibility space: taking stock of the diverse capabilities and gaps in integrated assessment models, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 053006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe5d8, 2021. a, b, c, d
Kouchaki-Penchah, H., Bahn, O., Bashiri, H., Bedard, S., Bernier, E., Elliot, T., Hammache, A., Vaillancourt, K., and Levasseur, A.: The role of hydrogen in a net-zero emission economy under alternative policy scenarios, Int. J. Hydrog. Energ., 49, 173–187, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.07.196, 2024. a
Krey, V., Havlik, P., Kishimoto, P. N., Fricko, O., Zilliacus, J., Gidden, M., Strubegger, M., Kartasasmita, G., Ermolieva, T., Forsell, N., Gusti, M., Johnson, N., Kikstra, J., Kindermann, G., Kolp, P., Lovat, F., McCollum, D. L., Min, J., Pachauri, S., Parkinson, S. C., Rao, S., Rogelj, J., Ünlü, G., Valin, H., Wagner, P., Zakeri, B., Obersteiner, M., and Riahi, K.: MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM documentation – 2020 release, Tech. rep., International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria, https://doi.org/10.22022/IACC/03-2021.17115, 2020. a, b
Kyle, G. P., Luckow, P., Calvin, K. V., Emanuel, W. R., Nathan, M., and Zhou, Y.: GCAM 3.0 agriculture and land use: data sources and methods, Tech. rep., PNNL – Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA, USA, https://doi.org/10.2172/1036082, 2011. a
Lewis, E., McNaul, S., Jamieson, M., Henriksen, M. S., Matthews, H. S., Walsh, L., Grove, J., Shultz, T., Skone, T. J., and Stevens, R.: Comparison of Commercial, State-of-the-Art, Fossil-Based Hydrogen Production Technologies, NETL, https://doi.org/10.2172/1862910, 2022. a, b, c
Lippkau, F., Franzmann, D., Addanki, T., Buchenberg, P., Heinrichs, H., Kuhn, P., Hamacher, T., and Blesl, M.: Global hydrogen and synfuel exchanges in an emission-free energy system, Energies, 16, 3277, https://doi.org/10.3390/en16073277, 2023. a
Luderer, G., Leimbach, M., Bauer, N., Kriegler, E., Baumstark, L., Bertram, C., Giannousakis, A., Hilaire, J., Klein, D., Levesque, A., Mouratiadou, I., Pehl, M., Pietzcker, R., Piontek, F., Roming, N., Schultes, A., Schwanitz, V. J., and Strefler, J.: Description of the REMIND model (Version 1.6), SSRN, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2697070, 2015. a, b
Manne, A., Mendelsohn, R., and Richels, R.: MERGE: A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies, Energy Policy, 23, 17–34, https://doi.org/10.1016/0301-4215(95)90763-W, 1995. a, b, c
Marcucci, A. and Turton, H.: Swiss energy strategies under global climate change and nuclear policy uncertainty, Swiss J. Econ. Stat., 148, 317–345, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03399369, 2012. a
Martínez-Gordón, R., Morales-España, G., Sijm, J., and Faaij, A.: A review of the role of spatial resolution in energy systems modelling: Lessons learned and applicability to the North Sea region, Renew. Sustain. Energ. Rev., 141, 110857, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2021.110857, 2021. a
McPherson, M., Johnson, N., and Strubegger, M.: The role of electricity storage and hydrogen technologies in enabling global low-carbon energy transitions, Appl.Energy, 216, 649–661, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.02.110, 2018. a
Miri, M., Saffari, M., Arjmand, R., and McPherson, M.: Integrated models in action: Analyzing flexibility in the Canadian power system toward a zero-emission future, Energy, 261, 125181, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.125181, 2022. a
Morrow, D. R., Apeaning, R., and Guard, G.: GCAM-CDR v1.0: enhancing the representation of carbon dioxide removal technologies and policies in an integrated assessment model, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1105–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1105-2023, 2023. a, b
Motlaghzadeh, K., Schweizer, V., Craik, N., and Moreno-Cruz, J.: Key uncertainties behind global projections of direct air capture deployment, Appl. Energy, 348, 121485, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121485, 2023. a
Negishi, T.: Welfare economics and existence of an equilibrium for a competitive economy, Metroeconomica, 12, 92–97, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-999X.1960.tb00275.x, 1960. a
Nikas, A., Doukas, H., and Papandreou, A.: A detailed overview and consistent classification of climate-economy models, in: Understanding risks and uncertainties in energy and climate policy, edited by: Doukas, H., Flamos, A., and Lieu, J., Springer, Cham, 1–54, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-03152-7_1, 2019. a
Nordhaus, W.: The climate casino: Risk, uncertainty, and economics for a warming world, Yale University Press, ISBN: 978-0-300-21264-8, 2013. a
NRCan: Hydrogen Strategy for Canada – Seizing the Opportunities for Hydrogen, https://natural-resources.canada.ca/climate-change-adapting-impacts-and-reducing-emissions/canadas-green-future/the-hydrogen-strategy/23080 (last access: 5 April 2024), 2020. a
NREL: H2A: Hydrogen Analysis Production Models, https://www.nrel.gov/hydrogen/h2a-production-models.html (last access: April 2024), 2023. a
O'Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Ebi, K. L., Hallegatte, S., Carter, T. R., Mathur, R., and Van Vuuren, D. P.: A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways, Climatic Change, 122, 387–400, 2014. a
O'Neill, B. C., Carter, T. R., Ebi, K., Harrison, P. A., Kemp-Benedict, E., Kok, K., Kriegler, E., Preston, B. L., Riahi, K., Sillmann, J., van Ruijven, B. J., van Vuuren, D., Carlisle, D., Conde, C., Fuglestvedt, J., Green, C., Hasegawa, T., Leininger, J., Monteith, S., and Pichs-Madruga, R.: Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 1074–1084, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0, 2020. a
Our World in Data: Average monthly surface temperature, Jan 15, 2009 to Oct 15, 2024, Our World in Data, https://ourworldindata.org/tourism (last access: 17 June 2024), 2024. a
Parrado-Hernando, G., Herc, L., Pfeifer, A., Capellán-Perez, I., Bjelić, I. B., Duić, N., Frechoso-Escudero, F., González, L. J. M., and Gjorgievski, V. Z.: Capturing features of hourly-resolution energy models through statistical annual indicators, Renew. Energy, 197, 1192–1223, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.07.040, 2022. a, b
Patt, A. G., van Vuuren, D. P., Berkhout, F., Aaheim, A., Hof, A. F., Isaac, M., and Mechler, R.: Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?, Climatic Change, 99, 383–402, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9687-y, 2010. a
Pietzcker, R. C., Stetter, D., Manger, S., and Luderer, G.: Using the sun to decarbonize the power sector: The economic potential of photovoltaics and concentrating solar power, Appl. Energy, 135, 704–720, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.08.011, 2014. a
Pietzcker, R. C., Ueckerdt, F., Carrara, S., de Boer, H. S., Després, J., Fujimori, S., Johnson, N., Kitous, A., Scholz, Y., Sullivan, P., and Luderer, G.: System integration of wind and solar power in integrated assessment models: A cross-model evaluation of new approaches, Energy Econ., 64, 583–599, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.11.018, 2017. a, b, c
Realmonte, G., Drouet, L., Gambhir, A., Glynn, J., Hawkes, A., Köberle, A. C., and Tavoni, M.: An inter-model assessment of the role of direct air capture in deep mitigation pathways, Nat. Commun., 10, 3277, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10842-5, 2019. a, b
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O'Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp, A., Crespo Cuaresma, J., KC, S., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S., Emmerling, J., Ebi, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Da Silva, L. A., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Bosetti, V., Eom, J., Gernaat, D., Masui, T., Rogelj, J., Strefler, J., Drouet, L., Krey, V., Luderer, G., Harmsen, M., Takahashi, K., Baumstark, L., Doelman, J. C., Kainuma, M., Klimont, Z., Marangoni, G., Lotze-Campen, H., Obersteiner, M., Tabeau, A., and Tavoni, M.: The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview, Global Environ. Change, 42, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009, 2017. a, b
Rochedo, P. R. R.: Development of a global integrated energy model to evaluate the Brazilian role in climate change mitigation scenarios, DS Thesis, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, https://www.ppe.ufrj.br/images/publica%C3%A7%C3%B5es/doutorado/Pedro_Rua_Rodriguez_Rochedo.pdf (last access: 17 March 2024), 2016. a
Schoenfisch, M. and Dasgupta, A.: Grid-scale Storage, https://www.iea.org/energy-system/electricity/grid-scale-storage (last access: 5 January 2024), 2023. a
Stanton, E. A., Ackerman, F., and Stanton, E. A.: Negishi Welfare Weights in Integrated Assessment Models: The Mathematics of Global Inequality, in: Anthem Environment and Sustainability, Anthem Frontiers of Global Political Economy, Anthem Press, 133–148, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9967-6, 2014. a
Sullivan, P., Krey, V., and Riahi, K.: Impacts of considering electric sector variability and reliability in the MESSAGE model, Energy Strat. Rev., 1, 157–163, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2013.01.001, 2013. a, b, c
The World Bank: World Development Indicators, Tech. rep., The World Bank, Washington, D.C., https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&country=&series=AG.LND.TOTL.K2&period=# (last access: 20 June 2024), 2024. a
Tol, R. S.: A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change, Energy Policy, 185, 113922, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113922, 2024. a
Ueckerdt, F., Brecha, R., Luderer, G., Sullivan, P., Schmid, E., Bauer, N., Böttger, D., and Pietzcker, R.: Representing power sector variability and the integration of variable renewables in long-term energy-economy models using residual load duration curves, Energy, 90, 1799–1814, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.07.006, 2015. a, b
Ueckerdt, F., Pietzcker, R., Scholz, Y., Stetter, D., Giannousakis, A., and Luderer, G.: Decarbonizing global power supply under region-specific consideration of challenges and options of integrating variable renewables in the REMIND model, Energy Econ., 64, 665–684, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.05.012, 2017. a, b, c, d, e
UNEP: Adaptation Gap Report 2023: Underfinanced, Underprepared. Inadequate investment and planning on climate adaptation leaves world exposed, https://doi.org/10.59117/20.500.11822/43796, 2023. a
UNFCCC: Adoption of the Paris Agreement, Report No. FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1, http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf (last access: 25 December 2023), 2015. a
van Maanen, N., Lissner, T., Harmsen, M., Piontek, F., Andrijevic, M., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Representation of adaptation in quantitative climate assessments, Nat. Clim. Change, 13, 309–311, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.02.110, 2023. a, b
van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S. J., and Rose, S. K.: The representative concentration pathways: an overview, Climatic Change, 109, 5–31, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z, 2011. a
van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., O'Neill, B. C., Ebi, K. L., Riahi, K., Carter, T. R., Edmonds, J., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., Mathur, R., and Winkler, H.: A new scenario framework for climate change research: scenario matrix architecture, Climatic Change, 122, 373–386, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1, 2014. a
Wei, T.: Estimation of Economy-Wide Rebound Effect: To What Extent Does the Aggregation of Regions and Sectors Matter?, SSRN [preprint], https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5957195, 2025. a
Weyant, J., Davidson, O., Dowlatabadi, H., Edmonds, J., Grubb, M., Parson, E., Richels, R., Rotmans, J., Shukla, P., Tol, R., Cline, W., and Fankhauser, S.: Integrated assessment of climate change: an overview and comparison of approaches and results, Climate Change, 3, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 367–396, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar2/wg3/, August 2025, 1995. a
Wilson, C., Guivarch, C., Kriegler, E., Van Ruijven, B., Van Vuuren, D. P., Krey, V., Schwanitz, V. J., and Thompson, E. L.: Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation, Climatic Change, 166, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03099-9, 2021. a
World Health Organization: Quantitative risk assessment of the effects of climate change on selected causes of death, 2030s and 2050s, Geneva, Switzerland, https://iris.who.int/server/api/core/bitstreams/785da4b3-7797-44f5-a01b-eab29c3ac99b/content (last access: 25 February 2024), 2014. a
World Resources Institute: Aqueduct Floods Dataset, Tech. rep., World Resources Institute, https://www.wri.org/data/aqueduct-floods (last access: 7 July 2024), 2020. a
Yalew, S. G., van Vliet, M. T. H., Gernaat, D. E. H. J., Ludwig, F., Miara, A., Park, C., Byers, E., De Cian, E., Piontek, F., Iyer, G., Mouratiadou, I., Glynn, J., Hejazi, M., Dessens, O., Rochedo, P., Pietzcker, R., Schaeffer, R., Fujimori, S., Dasgupta, S., Mima, S., Santos da Silva, S. R., Chaturvedi, V., Vautard, R., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Impacts of climate change on energy systems in global and regional scenarios, Nat. Energy, 5, 794–802, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0664-z, 2020. a
Zhao, Z.-J., Chen, X.-T., Liu, C.-Y., Yang, F., Tan, X., Zhao, Y., Huang, H., Wei, C., Shi, X.-L., Zhai, W., Guo, F., and van Ruijven, B. J.: Global climate damage in 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios based on BCC_SESM model in IAM framework, Adv. Clim. Change Res., 11, 261–272, 2020. a
Short summary
This study introduces AD-MERGE 2.0, an updated model designed to evaluate emission reduction policies alongside immediate and long-term climate adaptation strategies. The new version improves regional detail, energy system representation, and the calibration of climate damages and adaptation. By comparing five policy scenarios, the study shows how mitigation and adaptation interact across regions, highlighting key trade-offs and synergies.
This study introduces AD-MERGE 2.0, an updated model designed to evaluate emission reduction...