Articles | Volume 19, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6189-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
New framework for benchmarking decadal predictions leveraging the PCMDI Metric Package with interactive visualization
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- Final revised paper (published on 10 Jul 2026)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 04 Mar 2026)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-958', Anonymous Referee #1, 31 Mar 2026
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Jiwoo Lee, 19 May 2026
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-958', Anonymous Referee #2, 08 Apr 2026
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Jiwoo Lee, 19 May 2026
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Jiwoo Lee on behalf of the Authors (20 May 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (27 May 2026) by Xianan Jiang
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (08 Jun 2026) by Xianan Jiang
AR by Jiwoo Lee on behalf of the Authors (22 Jun 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
EF by Polina Shvedko (24 Jun 2026)
Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (24 Jun 2026) by Xianan Jiang
AR by Jiwoo Lee on behalf of the Authors (03 Jul 2026)
Manuscript
This manuscript presents a multi-model evaluation framework for initialized decadal climate prediction, implemented within the PCMDI Metrics Package, featuring two diagnostic tools: (1) a model-by-lead-time portrait plot and (2) an interactive HTML visualization platform, to assess how biases and prediction skill evolve with forecast lead time across temperature, precipitation, and sea ice. Application of the framework reveals that temperature biases drift toward each model's climatology over time, precipitation biases reflect systematic model physics errors, and sea-ice skill degrades rapidly with lead time while remaining closely coupled to temperature prediction quality. Overall, this work offers great practical value to the decadal predictability community; the publicly accessible diagnostics provide a useful reference that researchers can readily draw on for their own work. It is completely understandable that a single manuscript could not provide detailed mechanistic explanations for every systematic bias identified, and I expect this framework will serve as a springboard for many future studies in this area.
Minor comments:
1. The authors state in Lines 149–150 that forecasts are expected to drift toward the model's biased climatology as lead time increases. However, Figure 1 shows that tropical TAS biases in most models actually decrease with lead time rather than grow, which is somewhat counterintuitive, since one would expect small biases at short lead times that would then amplify as the forecast drifts toward the model climatology. Could the authors comment on this?
2. Line 160: It would be helpful to include a brief discussion of the physical reasons behind the tendency for models to exhibit a wet bias in the tropics and a dry bias in the mid-latitudes, rather than relying solely on the brief attribution to the summer ITCZ at Line 196.
3. Figure 1: Comparing TAS and PR results, TAS biases appear to evolve with lead time while PR biases remain largely constant across all initializations. A short comment on why precipitation biases are more stable with lead time than temperature biases would be great.