Articles | Volume 19, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-345-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-345-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Methods for assessment of models
| 
13 Jan 2026
Methods for assessment of models |
| 13 Jan 2026
| 13 Jan 2026
A new efficiency metric for the spatial evaluation and inter-comparison of climate and geoscientific model output
Andreas Karpasitis
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
Panos Hadjinicolaou
Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
George Zittis
Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
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Andreas Karpasitis, Manabu Abe, Isaline Bossert, Friederike Fröb, Thomas Frölicher, Panos Hadjinicolaou, Colin Jones, Roland Séférian, Tomas Torsvik, Jeremy Walton, Klaus Wyser, Tokuta Yokohata, and George Zittis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5285, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5285, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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The tropical atmosphere plays a key role in driving rainfall and influencing weather around the world. In this study, we used idealized simulations to examine how tropical rainfall and atmospheric circulation change as the planet warms. We found that the main tropical rain belt shifts closer to the Equator. Although vertical air motion becomes weaker, rainfall becomes more intense. These changes could affect regional rainfall patterns and climate regimes in other parts of the world.
Andreas Karpasitis, Manabu Abe, Isaline Bossert, Friederike Fröb, Thomas Frölicher, Panos Hadjinicolaou, Colin Jones, Roland Séférian, Tomas Torsvik, Jeremy Walton, Klaus Wyser, Tokuta Yokohata, and George Zittis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5285, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5285, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
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The tropical atmosphere plays a key role in driving rainfall and influencing weather around the world. In this study, we used idealized simulations to examine how tropical rainfall and atmospheric circulation change as the planet warms. We found that the main tropical rain belt shifts closer to the Equator. Although vertical air motion becomes weaker, rainfall becomes more intense. These changes could affect regional rainfall patterns and climate regimes in other parts of the world.
Ioannis Sofokleous, George Zittis, Gerald Dörflinger, and Adriana Bruggeman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 3903–3924, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-3903-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-3903-2026, 2026
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We developed a new method to improve numerical models that predict future water availability under climate change. The method works across different regions and climate scenarios. Applying the method to mountain river basins in the Eastern Mediterranean island of Cyprus showed that streamflow could drop by 39 % on average between 2030 and 2060, and by up to 70 % during the driest years. These findings help support better water planning in a changing climate.
Moetasim Ashfaq, Erika Coppola, Chris Lennard, Claas Teichmann, Deeksha Rastogi, Elias Massoud, Erasmo Buonomo, Eun-Soon Im, George Zittis, Jason P. Evans, Jesus Fernandez, Katherine J. Evans, Maria Leidinice da Silva, Marianna Adinolfi, Melissa Bukovsky, Rosmeri Porfirio da Rocha, Shabeh ul Hasson, Silvina A. Solman, Stefan Sobolowski, Sushant Das, Swen Brands, Tereza Cavazos, Thanh Ngo-Duc, and Xuejie Gao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2649, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2649, 2026
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Producing reliable regional climate projections requires carefully selecting which global climate models drive them. We developed a transparent and reproducible framework to identify a balanced, representative subset of models for the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, a major international effort to generate high-resolution climate projections worldwide. While designed for this initiative, the framework is broadly applicable to other models sub-selection efforts.
Georgia Lazoglou, Theo Economou, Christina Anagnostopoulou, George Zittis, Anna Tzyrkalli, Pantelis Georgiades, and Jos Lelieveld
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4689–4703, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4689-2024, 2024
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This study focuses on the important issue of the drizzle bias effect in regional climate models, described by an over-prediction of the number of rainy days while underestimating associated precipitation amounts. For this purpose, two distinct methodologies are applied and rigorously evaluated. These results are encouraging for using the multivariate machine learning method random forest to increase the accuracy of climate models concerning the projection of the number of wet days.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
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Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
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Short summary
This study introduces the Modified Spatial Efficiency metric to more rigorously evaluate how well climate models reproduce observed spatial patterns, addressing a long-standing challenge in model assessment. It demonstrates robust performance across a wide range of conditions, capturing spatial structures in an intuitive and physically meaningful way. This new metric offers researchers an improved tool for evaluating and inter-comparing climate models.
This study introduces the Modified Spatial Efficiency metric to more rigorously evaluate how...
