Articles | Volume 19, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2627-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2627-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model experiment description paper
| Highlight paper
| 
07 Apr 2026
Model experiment description paper | Highlight paper |
| 07 Apr 2026
| 07 Apr 2026
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7)
Detlef P. Van Vuuren
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, The Hague, the Netherlands
Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Brian C. O'Neill
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
Claudia Tebaldi
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
Benjamin M. Sanderson
CICERO, Oslo, Norway
Louise P. Chini
Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
Pierre Friedlingstein
Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France
Tomoko Hasegawa
Research Organization of Science and Technology, Ritsumeikan University, Kusatsu, Shiga, 525-8577, Japan
Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University (Katsura campus), Kyoto, Japan
Keywan Riahi
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Energy, Climate and Environment Program (ECE), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Bala Govindasamy
Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru – 560 012, Karnataka, India
Nico Bauer
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Veronika Eyring
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
University of Bremen, Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP), Bremen, Germany
Cheikh M. N. Fall
Laboratoire de Physique de l'Atmosphère et de l'Océan Siméon Fongang (LPAOSF), École Supérieure Polytechnique (ESP), Univ. Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal
Katja Frieler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
University of Potsdam, Institute for Environmental Science and Geography, Potsdam, Germany
Matthew J. Gidden
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Energy, Climate and Environment Program (ECE), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Laila K. Gohar
Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Annika Högner
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Energy, Climate and Environment Program (ECE), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys) and the Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Andrew D. Jones
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
Energy and Resources Group, University of CA, Berkeley; Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
Jarmo Kikstra
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Energy, Climate and Environment Program (ECE), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Andrew King
ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather and School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia
Reto Knutti
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland
Elmar Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
University of Potsdam, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Potsdam, Germany
Peter Lawrence
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Chris Lennard
Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, South Africa
Jason Lowe
Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Camilla Mathison
Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Shahbaz Mehmood
Global Climate-Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Ministry of Climate Change & Environmental Coordination (MoCC&EC), Govt. of Pakistan, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan
Zebedee Nicholls
Climate Resource S, Berlin, Germany
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Energy, Climate and Environment Program (ECE), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
Luciana F. Prado
Faculty of Oceanography, Department of Physical Oceanography and Meteorology, Rio de Janeiro State University, Campus Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Qiang Zhang
Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, China
Steven K. Rose
Energy Systems and Climate Analysis Research, EPRI, USA
Alex C. Ruane
National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, 10027, USA
Marit Sandstad
CICERO, Oslo, Norway
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Energy, Climate and Environment Program (ECE), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys) and the Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Roland Seferian
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France
Jana Sillmann
CICERO, Oslo, Norway
University of Hamburg, Research Unit Sustainability and Climate Risks, Faculty of Mathematics, Informatics and Natural Sciences, Germany
Chris Smith
Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Energy, Climate and Environment Program (ECE), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Anna A. Sörensson
Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires, Argentina
CONICET – Universidad de Buenos Aires, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), Buenos Aires, Argentina
Instituto Franco-Argentino de Estudios sobre el Clima y sus Impactos (IFAECI) – IRL 3351 – CNRSCONICET-IRD-UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Swapna Panickal
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India
Kaoru Tachiiri
Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
Naomi Vaughan
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, UK
Saritha S. Vishwanathan
Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University (Katsura campus), Kyoto, Japan
Public Systems Group, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India
Tokuta Yokohata
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
Marco Zecchetto
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Energy, Climate and Environment Program (ECE), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Tilo Ziehn
CSIRO Environment, Aspendale, Australia
Data sets
Indicative ScenarioMIP emissions and climate projections B. Sanderson and C. Smith https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14382495
Editorial statement
This article describes the design of the next version of emission scenarios that will be used for the 7th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, which in turn will be used for the 7th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It provides the story lines for the creation of the emission scenarios and therefore it envisions future trajectories of policies and energy use. Models in CMIP 7 will use these scenarios to run simulations of future climate change using the scenarios as the main forcing. The authors carefully considered all community comments and maintained an open approach to develop these scenarios.
This article describes the design of the next version of emission scenarios that will be used...
Short summary
We propose a set of seven plausible 21st century emission scenarios, and their multi-century extensions, that will be used by the international community of climate modeling centers to produce the next generation of climate projections. These projections will support climate, impact and mitigation researchers, provide information to practitioners to address future risks from climate change, and contribute to policymakers’ considerations of the trade-offs among various levels of mitigation.
We propose a set of seven plausible 21st century emission scenarios, and their multi-century...
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