Articles | Volume 18, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9751-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9751-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
08 Dec 2025
Development and technical paper |
| 08 Dec 2025
| 08 Dec 2025
MET-AICE v1.0: an operational data-driven sea ice prediction system for the European Arctic
Development Centre for Weather Forecasting, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Johannes Röhrs
Ocean Department, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Thomas Lavergne
Ocean Department, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Jozef Rusin
Ocean Department, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Are Frode Kvanum
Development Centre for Weather Forecasting, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Section for Meteorology and Oceanography, Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Atle Macdonald Sørensen
Ocean Department, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Arne Melsom
Ocean Department, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Julien Brajard
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
Martina Idžanović
Ocean Department, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Marina Durán Moro
Ocean Department, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Malte Müller
Development Centre for Weather Forecasting, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Section for Meteorology and Oceanography, Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
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The Cryosphere, 19, 5613–5637, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5613-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5613-2025, 2025
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Zikang He, Yiguo Wang, Julien Brajard, Xidong Wang, and Zheqi Shen
The Cryosphere, 19, 3279–3293, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3279-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3279-2025, 2025
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Åsmund Bakketun, Jostein Blyverket, and Malte Müller
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1693, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1693, 2025
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Léo Edel, Jiping Xie, Anton Korosov, Julien Brajard, and Laurent Bertino
The Cryosphere, 19, 731–752, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-731-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-731-2025, 2025
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Ocean Sci., 20, 1567–1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1567-2024, 2024
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Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Jonathan Baker, Clément Bricaud, Romain Bourdalle-Badie, Lluis Castrillo, Lijing Cheng, Frederic Chevallier, Daniele Ciani, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Gilles Garric, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Kevin Hodges, Doroteaciro Iovino, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Thomas Lavergne, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Audrey Minière, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Ad Stoffelen, Sulian Thual, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, Chunxue Yang, and Hao Zuo
State Planet, 4-osr8, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-1-2024, 2024
Andreas Wernecke, Dirk Notz, Stefan Kern, and Thomas Lavergne
The Cryosphere, 18, 2473–2486, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2473-2024, 2024
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The total Arctic sea-ice area (SIA), which is an important climate indicator, is routinely monitored with the help of satellite measurements. Uncertainties in observations of sea-ice concentration (SIC) partly cancel out when summed up to the total SIA, but the degree to which this is happening has been unclear. Here we find that the uncertainty daily SIA estimates, based on uncertainties in SIC, are about 300 000 km2. The 2002 to 2017 September decline in SIA is approx. 105 000 ± 9000 km2 a−1.
Cyril Palerme, Thomas Lavergne, Jozef Rusin, Arne Melsom, Julien Brajard, Are Frode Kvanum, Atle Macdonald Sørensen, Laurent Bertino, and Malte Müller
The Cryosphere, 18, 2161–2176, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2161-2024, 2024
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Sea ice forecasts are operationally produced using physically based models, but these forecasts are often not accurate enough for maritime operations. In this study, we developed a statistical correction technique using machine learning in order to improve the skill of short-term (up to 10 d) sea ice concentration forecasts produced by the TOPAZ4 model. This technique allows for the reduction of errors from the TOPAZ4 sea ice concentration forecasts by 41 % on average.
Marina Durán Moro, Ann Kristin Sperrevik, Thomas Lavergne, Laurent Bertino, Yvonne Gusdal, Silje Christine Iversen, and Jozef Rusin
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Individual satellite passes instead of daily means of sea ice concentration are used to correct the sea ice model forecast in the Barents Sea. The use of passes provides a significantly larger improvement of the forecasts even after a 7 d period due to the more precise information on temporal and spatial variability contained in the passes. One major advantage of the use of satellite passes is that there is no need to wait for the daily mean availability in order to update the forecast.
Thomas Lavergne and Emily Down
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5807–5834, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5807-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5807-2023, 2023
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Sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic can move several tens of kilometers per day due to wind and ocean currents. By analysing thousands of satellite images, we measured how sea ice has been moving every single day from 1991 through to 2020. We compare our data to how buoys attached to the ice moved and find good agreement. Other scientists will now use our data to better understand if climate change has modified the way sea ice moves and in what way.
Johannes Röhrs, Yvonne Gusdal, Edel S. U. Rikardsen, Marina Durán Moro, Jostein Brændshøi, Nils Melsom Kristensen, Sindre Fritzner, Keguang Wang, Ann Kristin Sperrevik, Martina Idžanović, Thomas Lavergne, Jens Boldingh Debernard, and Kai H. Christensen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5401–5426, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5401-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5401-2023, 2023
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A model to predict ocean currents, temperature, and sea ice is presented, covering the Barents Sea and northern Norway. To quantify forecast uncertainties, the model calculates ensemble forecasts with 24 realizations of ocean and ice conditions. Observations from satellites, buoys, and ships are ingested by the model. The model forecasts are compared with observations, and we show that the ocean model has skill in predicting sea surface temperatures.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
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Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
Georges Baaklini, Roy El Hourany, Milad Fakhri, Julien Brajard, Leila Issa, Gina Fifani, and Laurent Mortier
Ocean Sci., 18, 1491–1505, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1491-2022, 2022
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We use machine learning to analyze the long-term variation of the surface currents in the Levantine Sea, located in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. We decompose the circulation into groups based on their physical characteristics and analyze their spatial and temporal variability. We show that most structures of the Levantine Sea are becoming more energetic over time, despite those of the western area remaining the most dominant due to their complex bathymetry and strong currents.
Stefan Kern, Thomas Lavergne, Leif Toudal Pedersen, Rasmus Tage Tonboe, Louisa Bell, Maybritt Meyer, and Luise Zeigermann
The Cryosphere, 16, 349–378, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-349-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-349-2022, 2022
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High-resolution clear-sky optical satellite imagery has rarely been used to evaluate satellite passive microwave sea-ice concentration products beyond case-study level. By comparing 10 such products with sea-ice concentration estimated from > 350 such optical images in both hemispheres, we expand results of earlier evaluation studies for these products. Results stress the need to look beyond precision and accuracy and to discuss the evaluation data’s quality and filters applied in the products.
Cyril Palerme and Malte Müller
The Cryosphere, 15, 3989–4004, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3989-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3989-2021, 2021
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Methods have been developed for calibrating sea ice drift forecasts from an operational prediction system using machine learning algorithms. These algorithms use predictors from sea ice concentration observations during the initialization of the forecasts, sea ice and wind forecasts, and some geographical information. Depending on the calibration method, the mean absolute error is reduced between 3.3 % and 8.0 % for the direction and between 2.5 % and 7.1 % for the speed of sea ice drift.
Arne Melsom
The Cryosphere, 15, 3785–3796, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3785-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3785-2021, 2021
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This study presents new methods to assess how well observations of sea ice expansion are reproduced by results from models. The aim is to provide information about the quality of forecasts for changes in the sea ice extent to operators in or near ice-infested waters. A test using 2 years of model results demonstrates the practical applicability and usefulness of the methods that are presented.
Thomas Lavergne, Montserrat Piñol Solé, Emily Down, and Craig Donlon
The Cryosphere, 15, 3681–3698, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3681-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3681-2021, 2021
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Pushed by winds and ocean currents, polar sea ice is on the move. We use passive microwave satellites to observe this motion. The images from their orbits are often put together into daily images before motion is measured. In our study, we measure motion from the individual orbits directly and not from the daily images. We obtain many more motion vectors, and they are more accurate. This can be used for current and future satellites, e.g. the Copernicus Imaging Microwave Radiometer (CIMR).
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Short summary
We present MET-AICE, a sea ice prediction system based on artificial intelligence techniques that has been running operationally since March 2024. The forecasts are produced daily and provide sea ice concentration predictions for the next 10 days. We evaluate the MET-AICE forecasts from the first year of operation, and we compare them to forecasts produced by three physically-based models. We show that MET-AICE is skillful and provides more accurate forecasts than the physically-based models.
We present MET-AICE, a sea ice prediction system based on artificial intelligence techniques...
