Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 18, issue 4
Articles | Volume 18, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-921-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-921-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 18, issue 4
Development and technical paper
 | 
19 Feb 2025
Development and technical paper |  | 19 Feb 2025

Advances in land surface forecasting: a comparison of LSTM, gradient boosting, and feed-forward neural networks as prognostic state emulators in a case study with ecLand

Marieke Wesselkamp, Matthew Chantry, Ewan Pinnington, Margarita Choulga, Souhail Boussetta, Maria Kalweit, Joschka Bödecker, Carsten F. Dormann, Florian Pappenberger, and Gianpaolo Balsamo

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Latest update: 05 Nov 2025
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Short summary
We compared spatiotemporal forecasts of three machine learning models that learned water and energy
states on the land surface from a physical model scheme. The forecasting models were developed with reanalysis data and simulations on a European scale and transferred to the globe. We found that all approaches deliver highly accurate approximations of the physical dynamic at long time horizons, implying their usefulness to advance land surface forecasting with synthetic data. 
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