Articles | Volume 18, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8663-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8663-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
17 Nov 2025
Model description paper |
| 17 Nov 2025
| 17 Nov 2025
Data-driven estimation of the hydrologic response using generalized additive models
Quentin Duchemin
Swiss Data Science Center, ETH Zürich & EPFL, Zürich & Lausanne, Switzerland
Maria Grazia Zanoni
Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
Marius G. Floriancic
Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
Hansjörg Seybold
Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
Guillaume Obozinski
Swiss Data Science Center, ETH Zürich & EPFL, Zürich & Lausanne, Switzerland
James W. Kirchner
Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA
Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics (IDYST), Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, Université de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Related authors
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Stefano Martientti, James Kirchner, Peter Molnar, and Marius Floriancic
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2481, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2481, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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We measured impulse responses of water fluxes to atmospheric forcing in a mixed beech and spruce forest. We found rapid responses to precipitation in soils and trees, and rapid responses to solar radiation and aerodynamic evaporative demand in trees, but not in soils, which suggests that the forest canopy significantly shielded the soils from atmospheric forcing. We also found impulse-response functions to be affected by species-specific stomatal regulation and hydraulic capacitance.
Carolin Winter, Julia L. A. Knapp, and James W. Kirchner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2218, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2218, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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Droughts not only affect stream water quantity but also its quality, potentially aggravating water scarcity. To understand the underlying mechanisms, we studied the impacts of drought on stream concentrations of ten substances in a forested mountain area. We found that drought affected all substances. The different responses could be explained by changes in the transport by water, combined with biological and chemical processes that alter the availability and mobility of certain substances.
Raphaël Miazza and Paolo Benettin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 1247–1260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1247-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1247-2026, 2026
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We studied the time it takes for solutes like pollutants to travel through the landscape and reach streams compared to water. Although water and solutes travel together, they can take different paths and exit at different times due to different processes like sorption, decay, or uptake by plants. Using a simple modeling approach, we identified the conditions under which these travel time differences occur. This helps improve how we understand and predict water quality in natural environments.
Cristina Prieto, Dmitri Kavetski, Fabrizio Fenicia, James Kirchner, David McInerney, Mark Thyer, and César Álvarez
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-483, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-483, 2026
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Hourly streamflow data are increasingly available and can improve streamflow predictions. We tested simple ways to describe uncertainty by transforming flow values and by accounting for how errors persist from hour to hour, using seven catchments in Spain, Switzerland and the United States. Simple transformations and short-term error memory improve the reliability of probabilistic predictions and help combine hourly results into longer time scales for practical operational contexts.
Guilhem Türk, Christoph J. Gey, Bernd R. Schöne, Marius G. Floriancic, James W. Kirchner, Loic Leonard, Laurent Gourdol, Richard F. Keim, and Laurent Pfister
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 343–369, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-343-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-343-2026, 2026
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How landscape features affect water storage and release in catchments remains poorly understood. Here we used water stable isotopes in 12 streams to assess the fraction of precipitation reaching streamflow in less than 2 weeks. More recent precipitation was found when streamflow was high and the fraction was linked to the geology (i.e. high when impermeable, low when permeable). Such information is key for better anticipating streamflow responses to a changing climate.
Huibin Gao, Laurent Pfister, and James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 6529–6547, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6529-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6529-2025, 2025
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Some streams respond to rainfall with flow that peaks twice: a sharp first peak followed by a broad second peak. We analyzed data from a catchment in Luxembourg to better understand the processes behind this phenomenon. Our results show that the first peak is mostly driven directly by rainfall, and the second peak is mostly driven by rain that infiltrates to groundwater. We also show that the relative importance of these two processes depends on how wet the landscape is before the rain falls.
Marco M. Lehmann, Josie Geris, Ilja van Meerveld, Daniele Penna, Youri Rothfuss, Matteo Verdone, Pertti Ala-Aho, Matyas Arvai, Alise Babre, Philippe Balandier, Fabian Bernhard, Lukrecija Butorac, Simon D. Carrière, Natalie C. Ceperley, Zuosinan Chen, Alicia Correa, Haoyu Diao, David Dubbert, Maren Dubbert, Fabio Ercoli, Marius G. Floriancic, Alligin Ghazoul, Teresa E. Gimeno, Damien Gounelle, Frank Hagedorn, Christophe Hissler, Frédéric Huneau, Alberto Iraheta, Tamara Jakovljević, Nerantzis Kazakis, Zoltan Kern, Laura Kinzinger, Karl Knaebel, Johannes Kobler, Jiri Kocum, Charlotte Koeber, Gerbrand Koren, Angelika Kübert, Dawid Kupka, Samuel Le Gall, Aleksi Lehtonen, Thomas Leydier, Philippe Malagoli, Francesca Sofia Manca di Villahermosa, Chiara Marchina, Núria Martínez-Carreras, Nicolas Martin-StPaul, Hannu Marttila, Aline Meyer Oliveira, Gael Monvoisin, Natalie Orlowski, Kadi Palmik-Das, Aurel Persoiu, Andrei Popa, Egor Prikaziuk, Cécile Quantin, Katja T. Rinne-Garmston, Clara Rohde, Martin Sanda, Matthias Saurer, Daniel Schulz, Michael P. Stockinger, Christine Stumpp, Jean-Stéphane Vénisse, Lukas Vlcek, Stylianos Voudouris, Björn Weeser, Mark E. Wilkinson, Giulia Zuecco, and Katrin Meusburger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 6129–6147, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6129-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6129-2025, 2025
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This study describes a unique large-scale isotope dataset to study water dynamics in European forests. Researchers collected data from 40 beech and spruce forest sites in spring and summer 2023, using a standardized method to ensure consistency. The results show that water sources for trees change between seasons and vary by tree species. This large dataset offers valuable information for understanding plant water use, improving ecohydrological models, and mapping water cycles across Europe.
Cansu Culha, Sarah Godsey, Shawn Chartrand, Melissa Lafreniere, James McNamara, and James Kirchner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4275, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4275, 2025
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We study how Arctic rivers respond to rainfall in a warming climate. We show that runoff response can increase more than 5x under wetter conditions, and Active Layer Detachments amplify water and material runoff response to rainfall. Increasing subsurface storage can reduce runoff sensitivity to rainfall. Our results inform the flashiness of rainfall-runoff predictions based on expected weather and erosion conditions.
Zahra Eslami, Hansjörg Seybold, and James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 5121–5130, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5121-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5121-2025, 2025
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We used a new method to measure how streamflow responds to precipitation across a network of watersheds in Iran. Our analysis shows that streamflow is more sensitive to precipitation when groundwater levels are shallower, climates are more humid, topography is steeper, and drainage basins are smaller. These results are a step toward more sustainable water resource management and more effective flood risk mitigation.
Julia L. A. Knapp, Wouter R. Berghuijs, Marius G. Floriancic, and James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3673–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3673-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3673-2025, 2025
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This study explores how streams react to rain and how water travels through the landscape to reach them, two processes rarely studied together. Using detailed data from two temperate areas, we show that streams respond to rain much faster than rainwater travels to them. Wetter conditions lead to stronger runoff by releasing older stored water, while heavy rainfall moves newer rainwater to streams faster. These findings offer new insights into how water moves through the environment.
Zhuoyi Tu, Taihua Wang, Juntai Han, Hansjörg Seybold, Shaozhen Liu, Cansu Culha, Yuting Yang, and James W. Kirchner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3018, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3018, 2025
Preprint archived
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This study provides the first event-scale observational evidence that runoff sensitivity to precipitation decreases significantly in degrading permafrost regions of the Tibetan Plateau. Data-driven analysis reveals that permafrost thaw enhances infiltration and subsurface storage, reducing peak runoff and runoff coefficients, especially during heavy rainfall. These results are important for drought and flood risk management under climate change.
Izabela Bujak-Ozga, Jana von Freyberg, Margaret Zimmer, Andrea Rinaldo, Paolo Benettin, and Ilja van Meerveld
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2339–2359, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2339-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2339-2025, 2025
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Stream networks expand and contract, affecting the amount and quality of water in perennial streams. This study presents measurements of changes in water chemistry and the flowing portion of the drainage network during rainfall events in two neighboring catchments. Despite the proximity and similar size, soil, and bedrock, water chemistry and stream network dynamics differed substantially in the two catchments. These differences are attributed to the differences in the slope and channel network.
James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4427–4454, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4427-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4427-2024, 2024
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Here, I present a new way to quantify how streamflow responds to rainfall across a range of timescales. This approach can estimate how different rainfall intensities affect streamflow. It can also quantify how runoff response to rainfall varies, depending on how wet the landscape already is before the rain falls. This may help us to understand processes and landscape properties that regulate streamflow and to assess the susceptibility of different landscapes to flooding.
Marius G. Floriancic, Scott T. Allen, and James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4295–4308, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4295-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4295-2024, 2024
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We use a 3-year time series of tracer data of streamflow and soils to show how water moves through the subsurface to become streamflow. Less than 50% of soil water consists of rainfall from the last 3 weeks. Most annual streamflow is older than 3 months, and waters in deep subsurface layers are even older; thus deep layers are not the only source of streamflow. After wet periods more rainfall was found in the subsurface and the stream, suggesting that water moves quicker through wet landscapes.
Marius G. Floriancic, Michael P. Stockinger, James W. Kirchner, and Christine Stumpp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3675–3694, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3675-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3675-2024, 2024
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The Alps are a key water resource for central Europe, providing water for drinking, agriculture, and hydropower production. To assess water availability in streams, we need to understand how much streamflow is derived from old water stored in the subsurface versus more recent precipitation. We use tracer data from 32 Alpine streams and statistical tools to assess how much recent precipitation can be found in Alpine rivers and how this amount is related to catchment properties and climate.
Christina Franziska Radtke, Xiaoqiang Yang, Christin Müller, Jarno Rouhiainen, Ralf Merz, Stefanie R. Lutz, Paolo Benettin, Hong Wei, and Kay Knöller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-109, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-109, 2024
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Most studies assume no difference between transit times of water and nitrate, because nitrate is transported by water. With an 8-year high-frequency dataset of isotopic signatures of both, water and nitrate, and a transit time model, we show the temporal varying difference of nitrate and water transit times. This finding is highly relevant for applied future research related to nutrient dynamics in landscapes under anthropogenic forcing and for managing impacts of nitrate on aquatic ecosystems.
Shaozhen Liu, Ilja van Meerveld, Yali Zhao, Yunqiang Wang, and James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 205–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-205-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-205-2024, 2024
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We study the seasonal and spatial patterns of soil moisture in 0–500 cm soil using 89 monitoring sites in a loess catchment with monsoonal climate. Soil moisture is highest during the months of least precipitation and vice versa. Soil moisture patterns at the hillslope scale are dominated by the aspect-controlled evapotranspiration variations (a local control), not by the hillslope convergence-controlled downslope flow (a nonlocal control), under both dry and wet conditions.
Marvin Höge, Martina Kauzlaric, Rosi Siber, Ursula Schönenberger, Pascal Horton, Jan Schwanbeck, Marius Günter Floriancic, Daniel Viviroli, Sibylle Wilhelm, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Nans Addor, Manuela Brunner, Sandra Pool, Massimiliano Zappa, and Fabrizio Fenicia
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5755–5784, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5755-2023, 2023
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CAMELS-CH is an open large-sample hydro-meteorological data set that covers 331 catchments in hydrologic Switzerland from 1 January 1981 to 31 December 2020. It comprises (a) daily data of river discharge and water level as well as meteorologic variables like precipitation and temperature; (b) yearly glacier and land cover data; (c) static attributes of, e.g, topography or human impact; and (d) catchment delineations. CAMELS-CH enables water and climate research and modeling at catchment level.
Raphaël de Fondeville, Zheng Wu, Enikő Székely, Guillaume Obozinski, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 287–307, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-287-2023, 2023
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We propose a fully data-driven, interpretable, and computationally scalable framework to characterize sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), extract statistically significant precursors, and produce machine learning (ML) forecasts. By successfully leveraging the long-lasting impact of SSWs, the ML predictions outperform sub-seasonal numerical forecasts for lead times beyond 25 d. Post-processing numerical predictions using their ML counterparts yields a performance increase of up to 20 %.
Tobias Nicollier, Gilles Antoniazza, Lorenz Ammann, Dieter Rickenmann, and James W. Kirchner
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 929–951, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-929-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-929-2022, 2022
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Monitoring sediment transport is relevant for flood safety and river restoration. However, the spatial and temporal variability of sediment transport processes makes their prediction challenging. We investigate the feasibility of a general calibration relationship between sediment transport rates and the impact signals recorded by metal plates installed in the channel bed. We present a new calibration method based on flume experiments and apply it to an extensive dataset of field measurements.
Matthias Sprenger, Pilar Llorens, Francesc Gallart, Paolo Benettin, Scott T. Allen, and Jérôme Latron
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4093–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4093-2022, 2022
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Our catchment-scale transit time modeling study shows that including stable isotope data on evapotranspiration in addition to the commonly used stream water isotopes helps constrain the model parametrization and reveals that the water taken up by plants has resided longer in the catchment storage than the water leaving the catchment as stream discharge. This finding is important for our understanding of how water is stored and released, which impacts the water availability for plants and humans.
Sebastian A. Krogh, Lucia Scaff, James W. Kirchner, Beatrice Gordon, Gary Sterle, and Adrian Harpold
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3393–3417, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3393-2022, 2022
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We present a new way to detect snowmelt using daily cycles in streamflow driven by solar radiation. Results show that warmer sites have earlier and more intermittent snowmelt than colder sites, and the timing of early snowmelt events is strongly correlated with the timing of streamflow volume. A space-for-time substitution shows greater sensitivity of streamflow timing to climate change in colder rather than in warmer places, which is then contrasted with land surface simulations.
Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Frank Techel, Martin Hendrick, Michele Volpi, Alec van Herwijnen, Tasko Olevski, Guillaume Obozinski, Fernando Pérez-Cruz, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2031–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022, 2022
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A fully data-driven approach to predicting the danger level for dry-snow avalanche conditions in Switzerland was developed. Two classifiers were trained using a large database of meteorological data, snow cover simulations, and danger levels. The models performed well throughout the Swiss Alps, reaching a performance similar to the current experience-based avalanche forecasts. This approach shows the potential to be a valuable supplementary decision support tool for assessing avalanche hazard.
Nikos Theodoratos and James W. Kirchner
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 1545–1561, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-1545-2021, 2021
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We examine stream-power incision and linear diffusion landscape evolution models with and without incision thresholds. We present a steady-state relationship between curvature and the steepness index, which plots as a straight line. We view this line as a counterpart to the slope–area relationship for the case of landscapes with hillslope diffusion. We show that simple shifts and rotations of this line graphically express the topographic response of landscapes to changes in model parameters.
Zheng Wu, Bernat Jiménez-Esteve, Raphaël de Fondeville, Enikő Székely, Guillaume Obozinski, William T. Ball, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 841–865, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-841-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-841-2021, 2021
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We use an advanced statistical approach to investigate the dynamics of the development of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in the winter Northern Hemisphere. We identify distinct signals that are representative of these events and their event type at lead times beyond currently predictable lead times. The results can be viewed as a promising step towards improving the predictability of SSWs in the future by using more advanced statistical methods in operational forecasting systems.
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Short summary
We introduce GAMCR (Generalized Additive Models for Catchment Responses), a data-driven model that estimates how catchments respond to individual precipitation events. We validate GAMCR on synthetic data and demonstrate its ability to investigate the characteristic runoff responses from real-world hydrologic series. GAMCR provides new data-driven opportunities to understand and compare hydrological behavior across different catchments.
We introduce GAMCR (Generalized Additive Models for Catchment Responses), a data-driven model...
